Nate Palmer

Byron Buxton recently told Phil Miller he wants to finish his career as a Twin. What version of Buxton needs to exist as he ages for that dream to become reality? Recently Minnesota Twins center fielder Byron Buxton made the comment to Phil Miller of the Star Tribune that he would like to finish his career as a Twin. This is a pretty common sentiment from players who were drafted by and played the whole of their career with the same MLB club. This sort of statement is often celebrated by fanbases, but we know it gets complicated when evaluating Buxton in Twins Territory. Buxton is under his current contract through the 2028 season when he will be 34 years old. Buxton also holds a full no-trade clause with his contract, so if he wants to play in Minnesota he is in full control of that until the contract is complete. If Buxton wishes to continue playing at age 35, the question becomes what sort of player will he need to be in order for the Twins to want to sign him to another contract? Up to this point in his career Buxton has been a polarizing player as injuries have severely limited his playing time. With that in view, Buxton was able to play in 102 games in 2024 in which he was second on the team in fWAR (3.7) and third in WPA (1.76). There is no doubt that when he is healthy and on the field he makes a significant impact. Evidenced by his five seasons posting a fWAR above 3 even though only two seasons have seen Buxton play more than 100 games. The value is clearly there which has produced patience on the part of the Twins hoping to catch enough healthy games from Buxton to push the team towards playoff success. As the speedy center fielder ages three areas will come into focus as evaluation tools when it comes to the viability of a contract for that age 35 season: health, athleticism, and defense. Health This is an obvious area of concern, but will only magnify as Buxton ages. Mother time is undefeated and our bones, tendons, and muscles only become more cranky and slower to heal as we age. If the Twins and Buxton have found a formula of success that can keep Buxton on the field for over 100 games that could be a likely step toward this box being checked. Likely the Twins will need to see if they can come to a contract sweet spot with Buxton where any of his potential missed time won’t tie up too much of the Twins resources. New ownership does have the potential to bring about a different financial reality. Traditionally the Twins haven’t had enough resources to want to risk it sitting in the training room for large chunks of the season. Athleticism As will become evident, to some extent these three areas bleed together. As health is in question and age continues to creep in, every human's athleticism takes a hit. For some athletes it is less impactful than others. For Buxton, a player whose speed and ability to move creates much of his impact on the field, it may dictate a lot of his value into his thirties. One area that we may not think of immediately is Buxton’s bat speed. This is an area that Jamie Cameron covered at length and two things pop up about Buxton. First, right now his bat speed is very good among baseball players. Secondly, he is right at the age where we see that drop off dramatically. Buxton’s sprint speed is another area to watch as he ages. Since his rookie season he has lost about a foot per second in speed. While that isn’t good he still ranked as the 20th fastest in the league last season. It is obvious he will no longer be holding that number one spot like he had early on in his career, but he is still very fast when he can let loose. That leads us to the final area of evaluation… Defense As Buxton continues through the later part of his career the question of where he will play comes into full view. At what point will the Twins decide it is best to move him to a corner outfield spot much like the Angels are doing this season with Mike Trout who will turn 34 this season. Former Twins star outfielder Torii Hunter similarly made the same transition at age 35. What is hard about this switch is that each of these players derive so much of their value from being able to play a premier up the middle defensive position that the value vs. expense conversation becomes very real, very quickly once that change happens. That was evident in Hunter’s subsequent contracts. He went from making $18 million with the Angels to $12 and $14 million in the next contract with the Tigers. Then finally $10.5 million with the Twins in 2015 at age 39. As both Trout and Buxton will find out, the big difference between themselves and Hunter is that Torii was regularly playing the majority of a season even as he aged. Which is exactly why the Angels are making the move for Trout this season and it would likely be the reason the Twins would consider such a change. If Buxton can fully get over the hurdle of being both healthy and available, he most certainly has the bat skills to transfer to a corner position and still be worth paying a contract similar to what he is currently making. Last season’s .859 OPS and 137 OPS+ are evidence of that. If, as evidence seems to indicate from earlier, Buxton’s bat speed does decrease with age it may take reinventing of his approach at the plate to keep his production. As that happens, Buxton will also be fighting off external pressures as the Twins could still be a team that operates with limited resources in comparison to other clubs. Even under new ownership. Not to mention, there are a host of younger outfielders lining up behind him in the Twins system. While Buxton having the same durability as Hunter is unlikely. Buxton will need to build on his 102 games played in 2024 in order to make it make sense for the Twins to sign him as he turns 35 and not turn the reins over to a younger and likely more affordable player. By no means is Buxton finishing his career with the Twins with one final contract an insane idea either. If the club can feel comfortable with how he adjusts on the field to the aging of his body. Where do you see Buxton’s career arc finishing? Let us know below. View full article

Minnesota and the Minnesota Twins are good at finding and highlighting the best of cult heroes and personalities. Wally the Beer Man and La Tortuga to name a few. Could Mickey Gasper be next? Image courtesy of William Parmeter Once upon a time, a legend among legends lived in Twins territory. A man who transcended time and space and popularity. A man for whom memes and merchandise were made. Fans referred to that man as “La Tortuga.” The scorecard referred to him as Willians Astudillo. Astudillo was a fun player to watch, and he also had video game numbers in the minors regarding his strikeout and walk rates. While he could play all over the diamond, including catcher, we could never quite figure out if we wanted him playing anywhere. Regardless, in the middle of the 2018 season, Astudillo was one fun player to watch. As 2025 spring training plays out, the Twins may have another similarly fun player to watch. While it will be hard to match Astudillo’s hair and hustle, Mickey Gasper seems to be the current Twin with the closest possibility. Both players are of short stature for a major league player. Both aren’t exactly rocking six-pack abs either. Both players have been able to pick up several different gloves and hit the ball in the minor leagues in a way that gets them noticed by multiple clubs. Gasper hasn’t put up the same sort of eye-catching numbers as Astudillo, like the aforementioned walk and strikeout rate. Gasper has put together a couple of seasons where his average has been above .300. He has done so as recently as last season where over two levels (AA and AAA) Gasper had a combined slash line of .328/.440/.531 and an OPS of .970 in 92 games. That performance was enough to get Gasper a cup of coffee with Boston last season. Last season’s numbers, combined with a hot spring, are getting Gasper similar attention and could land him on the Twins roster. If not, Opening Day at some point in 2025. When that happens, it seems obvious he could be the next cult hero to wear a Twins uniform. Astudillo was our hero in a half shell as La Tortuga with his luscious locks flowing behind him as he rounded the bases. While Gasper doesn't have the hair on his head to compete, he may have the facial hair to resurrect the Randy Dobnak silhouette. Maybe even Gasper can become the real-life version of the rally sausage and be the hero at the center of every unbelievable victory. When acquired this offseason, Gasper seemed like a long shot to play any significant role with the Twins. As he has had success this spring and Royce Lewis went down injured once again, the possibility of that has only increased. If or when he does make the roster, Gasper seems like a likely fan favorite, like many of those who have gone before him. So while Carlos Correa, Byron Buxton, and others will compete for statistical team MVP, Gasper seems like the sort of guy who could be the MVP of fan’s hearts. View full article

Is there a path for the 2024 All-Star to become more than a good utility player? If he can combine the better traits of his past two seasons and not have to move around the diamond as a stopgap, there is. Image courtesy of William Parmeter Even though Willi Castro is coming off a season in which he was the Twins' All-Star selection, it has been hard to figure out what we can expect from him in 2025. Trade rumors have swirled around Castro. A lack of early clarity about the team's budget made it hard to gauge whether the team could or would retain him for his final year of team control. Though Castro's tough second half has left him less prominent in the minds of many fans, the way he has been treated by the Twins (most notably that he is still on the roster) suggests that they still view him as an everyday player—and maybe one who moves around less than he did last year. Not only is there a path to that, but we could even ask if that has been the plan all along. While shortstop was Castro’s most frequented position in 2024 (due to Carlos Correa’s injury), the fact the Twins were reportedly interested in a true backup shortstop sends some signal that they don't want him lining up there much this season. The two other positions that Castro played the most, left field and second base, offer ample opportunities for the veteran to see significant time in 2025. If Castro can combine attributes of his offensive output from the 2023 and 2024 seasons, it gets much easier to write him into the lineup every day. In 2023, Castro's base-stealing ability was the stat that stood out. "I would love to," manager Rocco Baldelli told reporters this spring training, when asked if he would like the Twins to steal more bases this season. If Castro recaptures his 2023 rate of attempts or success, he could bring a smile to his manager’s face and playing time for himself. While Castro’s batting numbers in his two seasons with the Twins are very similar overall, his first half in 2024 propelled the 27-year-old to the All-Star game. A consistent ability to produce a slash line of .266/.352/.422, as Castro did for the first half of 2024, would quickly make him a solid second baseman, left fielder, or some combination of the two. It may seem strange to limit Castro to one or two positions, as one of his greatest assets is his ability to line up just about anywhere. That versatility led to his record-setting season last year, in which he started at least 25 games at five different positions. While it is a remarkable ability, he was only in the position to set that record due to key injuries from the Twins. Hopefully, some high-profile teammates will primarily play center field, shortstop, and third base. While the Twins value versatility, we might be erring by assuming that they were ever planning to lean on Castro's so heavily—or that they want to do so again this year. There are some at-bats available at designated hitter, but given the health issues of Correa, Byron Buxton, and Royce Lewis and the defensive limitations of Matt Wallner and Trevor Larnach, Castro will only be a full-time regular if he gets most of his playing time elsewhere. Edouard Julien and Brooks Lee might, for instance, each fail to claim the second-base job. In the outfield, one of Wallner or Larnach might take a step backward, developmentally. (Unfortunately, it would hardly be their first.) It could also mean Harrison Bader wasn’t the veteran right-handed bat the team hoped he would be. Even if everyone performed positively, there could still be a unique path to regular time between those two positions. It would become much trickier, but that would be a good problem. Last year, injuries forced the team to treat Castro like an ace defender at several positions, which isn't realistic or the best way to use him. It probably also resulted in the wear and tear that degraded his production after the All-Star break. Instead, if Castro finds a home at one or both of second base and left field in 2025, the Twins will be sitting pretty—with good health at other spots and the prospect of better season-long production from Castro himself. View full article

While the Minnesota Twins are familiar with recent free agent addition Danny Coulombe. A lot has changed for the left-hander in his two seasons in Baltimore. Minnesota Twins fans are familiar with Danny Coulombe in the sense that he has put on a Twins jersey in the recent past. Even though the last time Coulombe was with the Twins club was as recent as spring training to begin 2023, he has developed into a considerably different pitcher in two short seasons. The lefty spent those seasons establishing himself as one of the better left-handed bullpen options in baseball. Seeing his strikeout ability take a noticeable jump posting a 10.17 and 9.71 K/9 in 2023 and 2024 respectively after being below 9 strikeout per nine in 2021 and 2022 in Minnesota. Coulombe’s K% also jumped to 27.6% and 29.9% in Baltimore while he posted a 23.7% at his best while in Minnesota. Those results helped Coulombe account for a 1.9 fWAR over his two seasons in Baltimore. He also accounted for 0.83 WPA in 2023 and a 1.77 WPA last season. It wasn’t just the results that changed for the now 35 year old. He made some considerable changes to his pitch mix and arm angle over the last several seasons. In Coulombe’s time with the Twins he leaned most prominently on a slider and four seam fastball as his primary pitches. Last season his two most used pitches were a cutter and a sweeper. The cutter is completely new to Coulombe since leaving Minnesota and the sweeper he just started throwing in 2022. A total of 15 times that season Coulombe employed the sweeper. Those two pitches accounted for 58.5% of the lefties' pitches in 2024. The sweeper over the past two seasons has resulted in a 32.3% whiff rate in 2023 and 38.2% in 2024. The cutter was similarly effective with a 31.4% whiff rate in 2023 with a dip to 26.2% in 2024. The development and employment of these two pitches at the rate in which Coulombe uses them helps to explain the uptick in his strikeout and strike throwing ability the past two seasons. While it does help explain the improvements, it also feels like a fairytale that a MLB pitcher could completely retool himself in that way while performing at such a high level. Along with adding the new pitches, Coulombe also raised his arm angle slightly. Traditionally he had been between a 50-52 degree arm angle. Since leaving Minnesota that angle has increased to 56 degrees in 2023 and 58 degrees last season. While this is technically the same guy that fans have seen before, he is returning with a very different look. As long as Coulombe can avoid any lengthy injury stints, he will help lock down the back end of the bullpen as presumably the primary left-hander with a bit more strikeout ability than we saw his last time in a Twins uniform. View full article

The point is that injuries hit another peak league wide and the Twins are toward the top of that trend.

Injuries are on the rise in Major League Baseball, and the Twins are one unhappy face of the problem. What is happening, and what can be done? Image courtesy of © Bruce Kluckhohn-Imagn Images The Minnesota Twins front office has taken a lot of heat for the lack of moves made at the trade deadline. It's fair to levy that criticism, because since they opted not to deepen their depth, they've been systematically depleted by injuries. On the other hand, we shouldn't overlook the talent they have accumulated: The front office initially put together a promising roster for the current season. The roster has simply been one of the most injured in baseball. Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa grab the headlines when it comes to injured Twins, but there have been a lot of other important players who have spent or are spending time on the injured list. As much as Buxton's and Correa's absences were felt over the last month and change, having Joe Ryan and Brock Stewart around would have been even bigger difference-makers. According to Baseball Prospectus, the Twins currently rank near the top of the league in WARP lost to injuries, only trailing the Dodgers, Braves, Red Sox, Astros, Giants, and Rangers. But this isn't just a local story--not by a long shot. There is a disturbing league-wide trend of rising elbow, shoulder, hip, and back injury rates; all of those areas have resulted in more IL stints throughout MLB this season than in any of the previous four full campaigns. The baseball world has been watching this trend (especially pitcher arm injuries) for many years now, but seeing that it has hit another peak shows that many answers still need to be found. Here is a quick rundown of currently injured Twins, and their maladies: Alex Kirilloff (back discomfort), Max Kepler (patellar tendinitis), Joe Ryan (strained shoulder), Daniel Duarte (elbow-UCL), Brock Stewart (shoulder), and Justin Topa (patellar tendinitis). Each of those players fits into one of the categories above. Only Chris Paddack (strained forearm) and Anthony DeSclafani (flexor tendon) don't fit into any of those rising categories, and really, both of those are elbow injuries by other names. Coming off of a stretch (and a season, for that matter) of bad losses due to the bullpen struggles, it is easy to wonder: What if Stewart had been healthy, and had any semblance of the 2023 success that made him so integral to their relief corps last fall? Stewart helping lock down the back end of the Twins playoff bullpen? Duarte, who briefly looked brilliant before requiring season-ending surgery in the early going, as a surprising complementary setup option? Topa hasn’t been able to grace the mound for the Twins after being acquired from the Mariners. His 2023 2.61 ERA would be a breath of fresh air, as the Twins have tried shuffling arms in and out of the bullpen for any sense of competency. DeSclafani (early) and Ryan (late) going down thinned the rotation and put more pressure on the young arms we now see fighting for the finish line. While there was a path for the Twins to do something to help midseason, a bigger problem looms for Major League Baseball—a problem that has greatly affected the Twins this season. Can baseball continue to let players max out at this velocity, foot speed, and bat speed? Is it time to introduce some more parameters or rule changes that will help force players to play at a different exertion level? Maybe that's too extreme, but then, does the league as a whole need to reconsider its best practices for injury prevention and management? Do teams need to prescribe different training methods? Major League Baseball has reportedly considered a rule that would push starters to pitch six innings, barring a few exceptions. This rule change could cause starters to strike a different balance between stamina and high effort than they currently do. Potentially, that could be part of the answer to the injury problem among starting pitchers. The problem is that the league's injury issues seem to have broken free of the pitching sphere. We see plenty of instances of injuries among relievers, who already have their own version of this rule. So what about them? And what about hitters dealing with more hip, knee, and back trouble? That is a question facing the Twins, but it can't all be laid at their feet; the problem is league-wide. The Twins especially can’t afford to see this many key players hit the IL without investigating if there is a way to prevent them. The Twins put together a strong roster. Now, it is time to find a way to keep that talent in the field. They have to do that better, but so does the league as a whole. View full article

The Minnesota Twins needed to grab onto whatever momentum they could from Sunday; they couldn't. Pablo López and Griffin Jax both looked like heroes, until Jax gave up the knockout blow in the form of an eighth-inning homer. Image courtesy of © Ken Blaze-Imagn Images Box Score SP: Pablo López: 6.1 IP, 8 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 4 K (92 pitches, 61 strikes (66.3%) Home Runs: N/A Bottom 3 WPA: Griffin Jax (-0.236), Pablo López (-0.106), Christian Vázquez (-0.084) Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs) The Minnesota Twins looked to build on their nine-run outburst in Sunday’s game and ride rotation leader Pablo López to start their four-game series with Cleveland on the right foot. Early on, the game looked to be in the Twin's favor, but would that reality hold for all nine innings? Third-Inning Rally The Twins got into an offensive rhythm in the third inning, and were able to move around the base paths to build themselves an early lead. It started with Carlos Correa, in his second game back, hitting his 18th double of the season. Behind him, Ryan Jeffers and Royce Lewis both walked to load the bases for Byron Buxton. In his third game since returning from the IL, Buxton hit a ball off the glove of Guardians starter Matthew Boyd that ricocheted to the outfield, scoring both Jeffers and Lewis to give the Twins a quick 3-0 lead. Kyle Farmer followed up with a single. The hit didn’t score a run, but was enough to chase Boyd in favor of reliever Padro Avila. Runs and Long Plate Appearances With several long plate appearances, the Twins could get deeper into the Guardians bullpen than a three-run lead would typically allow. One that stood out that didn’t result in a hit, but sucked up plenty of bullpen energy, was Carlos Santan’s 10-pitch at-bat in the fifth inning. Runs weren’t scored in each inning, but getting to see as much of the Guardians bullpen as the Twins did should, hopefully, pay dividends as the series continues. (Gosh, though, in hindsight, runs sure would have been nice.) Guardians Capitalize on Mistake It wasn’t the largest of mistakes, but with two outs in the fifth inning, López let a sweeper get away from him, hitting Brayan Rocchio. That opened the door for the Guardians to get back-to-back hits. Rocchio was able to score on an Andrés Giménez single that Lewis did not cleanly field. With some heads-up defense, Correa finished the play by throwing behind Angel Martinez at third for the final out of the inning, preserving two runs of cushion. Jax saves the lead in 7th López spent most of the night cruising through the Guardians lineup. He once again looked like the ace of the Twins staff he needed to be. The seventh inning was scary, though, as Cleveland loaded the bases with no outs. At that moment, the Guardians sent Daniel Schneeman as a pinch-hitter, and Christian Vázquez visited the mound to discuss it with his starter. López responded by striking out Schneeman, but then gave up a single to Martinez, cutting the lead to 3-2. Enter Griffin Jax. With the bases still loaded, Jax would pitch the biggest pitches of the evening. He began by fanning Giménez, then induced the dangerous José Ramírez (who already had two hits on the night) to ground out to Santana at first base. Once again, Jax shut the door in a vital spot while facing some of the most dangerous hitters in a lineup. Until the 8th... As well as the seventh inning went, the eighth inning erased all those good feelings. Jax remained in the game and led off the inning by giving up a double to deep right field to Josh Naylor. The Twins reliever did respond by striking out Lane Thomas for the first out. He would not be as lucky with rookie Kyle Manzardo, though. Manzardo hit a tank for his third home run of the season to put the Guardians up 4-3. What is unfortunate about this game is that the loss will be pegged on López and Jax, when, in reality, they were just unable to work within margins for error left too fine by the rest of the team. It is the road to October, and when the Twins haven't been playing well as a team, it makes these moments bigger than they should be. It will need to be another "flush it" moment for the Twins and their two leading pitchers, but too many of those are piling up. What’s Next? As the Twins send Zebby Matthews to the mound on Tuesday, he will look to continue to trend back to having more quality outings. After a few clunkers, Matthews controlled his earned runs allowed, which was limited to two, but he will look to pitch deeper than the 3 1/3 innings he notched against the Angels. The Guardians’ Gavin Williams will pitch for the home team, and the Twins will look to continue to add to a primarily rough season for the right-hander. The Twins could also change things up a bit, now that they have newcomer Cole Irvin in the rotation mix. Postgame Interviews Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet THU FRI SAT SUN MON TOT Blewett 0 0 41 0 0 41 Alcalá 0 9 0 31 0 40 Thielbar 0 0 27 0 13 40 Sands 0 0 0 36 0 36 Varland 0 0 29 0 0 29 Tonkin 0 28 0 0 0 28 Jax 0 0 0 0 21 21 Henríquez 0 0 0 17 0 17 Durán 0 0 0 0 0 0 View full article

This is absolutely something we should continue to remember and recognize!

Absolutely wanted to give credit where credit was due.

The team meeting on Sunday was not enough to change Monday. Starter David Festa faltered early and the Twins dropped their fourth straight game. Image courtesy of © Jesse Johnson-Imagn Images Box Score SP: David Festa: 4.0 IP, 4 H, 4 ER, 3 BB, 4 K (66 pitches, 41 strikes (62.1%) Home Runs: Kyle Farmer (4) Bottom 3 WPA: David Festa(-0.213), Royce Lewis (-0.091), Ronny Henriquez(-0.084) Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs) After a weekend of losing and a team meeting, the Minnesota Twins were set to rebound at home against the struggling Los Angeles Angels. Everything seemed to create a perfect atmosphere for the whole team to shake things off and get back to the business of winning. The one rookie starter who has continued to find success, David Festa, was on the mound to start the night. The only question was whether the Twins would put it all together and add to the win column again. Early on, Walks Haunted While Festa’s rookie counterparts have been faltering down the stretch, the right-hander seemed to be getting stronger as his MLB appearances have continued. Festa did have his struggles Monday against the Angels, as he led the game off with a walk to Taylor Ward. A ground-rule double and a single followed, allowing both Ward and Zach Neto to score and giving the Angels an early 2-0 lead. In the third inning, Festa issued another walk. This time it was to Nolan Schanuel. Schanuel did not have to work hard to go first to home, as Brandon Drury worked a nine-pitch count until he got a high and in fastball that he was able to turn on for his fourth home run. That doubled the Angels lead to 4-0. Willi Castro left the game due to illness, and in his place came Michael Helman. In Helman’s first plate appearance during the third inning, he hit a double to lead off the inning. It took some time, but with two outs in the inning, Carlos Santana was able to come through with a single that gave Helman enough room to score from second, cutting the lead down to 4-1. In the next inning, Kyle Farmer came to the plate and took a rip on a hanging curveball. The Twins brought Farmer to town, in part, because of his performance against left-handed pitchers. While it hasn’t been easy for the utility infielder in 2024, he showed off that stroke for his fourth home run in this game and successfully helped the Twins cut the initial lead in half. Big Bullpen Innings Needed Again After the Twins put some runs on the board, the pitching also settled into a groove. Festa finished out his outing with two scoreless innings before being relieved by Ronny Henriquez. Henriquez had a very good fifth inning, which included picking Ward off of first base when he connected with Santana. The sixth inning turned ugly again. With Henriquez still on the mound and Logan O’Hoppe on first, Niko Kavadas took Henriquez deep to gain their lead back making the score 6-2. Next up for the bullpen was Michael Tonkin. Tonkin tossed as perfect of two innings as the Twins had seen all night from one of their pitchers. The veteran righty did allow one hit and one walk but struck out three batters while holding the Angels scoreless. The Twins have to be hoping that Tonkin can continue to provide these sorts of innings down the stretch. Scott Blewett came in for the ninth and looked set to cruise effortlessly through the inning. A hit-and-hit batsman did make the inning a bit interesting, but Blewett still got through the inning, tossing only 13 pitches. The zeros put on the board by the bullpen when they did come were not enough, as the bats were not able to erase the total deficit—leaving the Twins with their fourth loss in a row. What’s Next? Tuesday night at Target Field will be another Pablo Lopez deal. Lopez has returned to his dominant form and has found great success with his fastball. The Twins will need a win from him to help hold their playoff spot. The Angels will counter with Griffin Canning. Canning has tossed over 150 innings but does sport an ERA north of 5.00. Postgame Interviews Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet THU FRI SAT SUN MON TOT Henríquez 0 13 0 0 29 42 Blewett 0 0 0 19 13 32 Tonkin 0 0 0 0 31 31 Sands 0 0 0 30 0 30 Durán 12 0 17 0 0 29 Jax 13 0 8 0 0 21 Thielbar 0 19 0 0 0 19 Alcalá 0 0 0 11 0 11 Varland 0 0 0 0 0 0 View full article

The Minnesota Twins are experiencing the dark side of embracing injury risk as a strategy, as they have been missing their two star players during a critical stretch of the season. Image courtesy of © Bruce Kluckhohn-Imagn Images While the Minnesota Twins have put together a season of competitive play—much more competitive than we thought second or third in the AL Central would be, in the bigger picture of baseball—one issue has continued to rear its ugly head season after season, and seems to mute the team’s successes: The Twins' star players continually seem to be injured. In the last two seasons, Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa have been unavailable to the team. To be clear, the words to follow are not meant to indict either of these players. Instead, they point out the negative side of a strategy the Twins appear to have used—a strategy that the front office has only been able to go halfway on. Buxton has a well-documented history of injuries. When Buck is right and roaming center like he has been for much of the year, he is a game-changing player. Likewise, when going right, Correa is the same type of star player who can feel like he is single-handedly propelling his team toward victory. Even after missing significant time, FanGraphs values Buxton’s contributions to the team at $26.3 million, well above his salary of $15 million for the season. Just before he went down with plantar fasciitis, Correa was on a tear where he was slashing .375/.435/.625 and a 1.060 OPS from Jun. 5 until the injury. Both still sit atop the Twins fWAR leaderboard. This season is yet another example of how both Correa and Buxton, if healthy, deserve much larger contracts than either of them is on. The injury history and Correa’s medical imaging of his ankle are the only reasons the Twins were able to jump up and sign both stars. The worries surrounding each star's availability created a situation where both became a “distressed asset” that the Twins were willing to keep on board. The Twins have yet to experience the worst-case scenario, as Buxton and Correa have at least been available for some of the season. This season’s situation isn’t good by any means, as their inability has coincided with a very important stretch run in which they could use the jolt their bats would bring and the consistency of their gloves. As fans, we are experiencing the dark side of dealing with distressed assets. When it works for teams with the quasi-need to save money and the star player is healthy and performs well, a front office has more than maximized those dollars. When the player continues to be injured, and the team cannot rely on them for at-bats and innings in the field, the dollars begin to feel wasted, even if FanGraphs tells us otherwise. To the Twins' credit, two parts of the roster-building process have gone well. The front office did avoid some other potential distressed assets along the way, who have cratered. At two years and $24 million, Kenta Maeda went to the Detroit Tigers. It was tempting to try and squeeze more out of the veteran to help fill out the rotation. Thankfully, the Twins said no to the contract, as Maeda has performed poorly enough that he has been moved strictly to a relief role. As Jordan Montgomery hung out unsigned late, many of Twins Territory pointed to the playoff standout to help bolster the Twins ranks. In 19 starts, the lefty has a 6.43 ERA and amassed a -1.5 WAR. The Diamondbacks are paying $25 million for those services. Carlos Rodon can also be mentioned here. While his contract still has some time to pay off for the Yankees, the first year was a lost one, and this season, it has settled out at least to a more respectable level. The second aspect of this process the Twins have done well is that they have either signed or developed a good crop of players to provide depth when Buxton and Correa have been out. Imagine where this team would be without Willi Castro, a Detroit Tigers payroll casualty who is now an All-Star. Trevor Larnach, Matt Wallner, José Miranda, Brooks Lee, and Austin Martin have all put together some big innings at different junctures for the Twins. Even on the pitching side, the performances of Simeon Woods Richardson, David Festa, and Zebby Matthews have helped push off some of the adverse effects of not acquiring or spending money on another starter. Of course, as of late, there have been struggles between two of the three in that group. Even with those struggles, they have, at times, thrown big innings for the Twins. There is a lot to celebrate among that list of names, but it still hasn't been enough. The Twins have fallen short in carrying this process to the finish line. Yes, a team can save money by buying these distressed asset-type players. However, the team does need to consider spending slightly more on the next level of replacement players if they want to ensure it will work. In fact, that's a vital piece of this style of team-building, as seen in other teams who do it, like the Dodgers and Yankees. Instead of trading for Manuel Margot, the team should consider spending some assets or money to bring in someone of a higher caliber. Instead of bringing in nothing in the way of starting pitchers outside of the trade for Anthony DeSclafani, find a capable starter to add length to that rotation so the club wouldn’t be currently relying on three rookies. The Twins could have looked toward players like Shota Imanaga, who signed for four years and $53 million with the Cubs. Another potential starting pitching signing could have been Erick Fedde, whom the Twins were interested in at the trade deadline and signed for two years and $15 million with the White Sox at the beginning of the season. Those sorts of signings have been needed to push the roster to another level and would have gone a long way for the 2024 season. Yes, the risk is always present that one of those players also does not perform well. It does increase the pool of MLB level talent the team has. That talent would help to buoy the team when one of those star players goes down. There is still a chance Buxton and Correa will return and lead the team into and through the playoffs. There is also the chance that fans will be left with their palms to the sky, wondering once again where their star players were at the most critical moments. A failure to participate in or advance through the playoffs will lead to each fan looking at ownership and asking why they didn’t feel the urgency to put some more money out there to push the roster over the finish line. View full article

Don't give me too much credit. I observed but didn't report it. The closest I get to talking to Rocco is yelling at the TV with the rest of you.

Labor Day was a nervy one for the Twins. Rocco Baldelli had to turn to the bullpen early. The relievers lived up the task, though, and some young bats launched home runs to bring home the win. Image courtesy of © Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports Box Score SP: Simeon Woods Richardson: 3.2 IP, 6 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 2 K (71 pitches, 47 strikes (66.2%) Home Runs: Trevor Larnach (15), Brooks Lee (3) Top 3 WPA: Trevor Larnach (0.352), Jhoan Duran (0.187), Jorge Alcala (0.117) Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs) As the Minnesota Twins continue to battle for playoff position, most closely with Kansas City, they set their destination for Tampa Bay to take on the sub-.500 Rays. The Twins took advantage of some two-out at-bats to get on the board early. In the first inning, it was Royce Lewis coming through, with Trevor Larnach on second base after a walk and advancing to second on a Jose Miranda single. Lewis, who hadn’t been his explosive self through the end of August, pulled the ball down the third-base line for a double. Larnach crossed home plate and gave the Twins a 1-0 lead. The Rays wouldn’t let that score stand long. Also with two outs, Tampa's Dylan Carlson hit a 2-1 changeup in the heart of the plate for a single, which scored both Junior Caminero and Josh Lowe—putting the Rays up 2-1 to close out the first inning. Like in a great boxing match, however, the Twins and Larnach would fire back to start the second inning. With Edouard Julien and Christian Vázquez on base, Larnach hit a rocket, line-drive home run over the right-field fence. The lefty's home run ball was his 15th on the season and clocked in at 112.5 mph off his bat. The Twins lead stood at 4-2 in the middle of the second. Simeon Woods Richardson would give up another run in the third inning, and then leave in the fourth, with team clinging to a one-run edge. It left Rocco Baldelli in an interesting position, as he would need to manage his bullpen carefully. The first arm Baldelli called upon was Jorge Alcalá. Alcalá last pitched on Wednesday against the Atlanta Braves, where he only completed 0.2 innings and gave up a run. While the fifth inning wasn’t the cleanest, Alcalá gave the Twins 1.1 innings of scoreless relief. Twins Daily's winning "Make It Official!" game recaps are sponsored by Official Fried Chicken, which you can find in center field of Target Field. With a name like "Official," we know we have to be the best in the game every day, and from your first bite, you'll know thats a promise we make good on. Ronny Henriquez was next to toe the rubber out of the bullpen. The Twins clearly had a plan for who Henriquez would face in the Rays lineup. The right-hander had been warming up earlier in the game before sitting down when Alcalá was brought in. After Alcalá faced six batters, the Rays lineup must have been back in the spot where the Twins wanted to bring Henriquez into the game. The plan worked. Henriquez pitched a three-up, three-down sixth inning after accepting a big assist from Matt Wallner, who caught a long fly ball at the wall off of Taylor Walls's bat. The inning also included a significant induced ground out of the dangerous Yandy Diaz. As Baldelli continued to move the chess pieces, next up was Griffin Jax to face the Rays' 2-3-4 batters. Jax very clearly has become the most trusted reliever in the Twins bullpen, and deploying him in the seventh Monday evening was further evidence of that. It took four batters to get through the seventh after a weak Josh Lowe grounder up the middle allowed him to reach safely. Jax handled Lowe’s presence at first magnificently and struck out two batters on his way to a scoreless inning. While the Twins were shuffling through their bullpen, the Rays were doing the same, as their starter, Zack Littell, who completed only four innings. The Rays bullpen did the job, until Garret Cleavinger gave up a leadoff home run to Brooks Lee in the eighth, for his first right-handed home run and a third home run of his rookie season. With the Rays back up for the bottom half of the eighth inning, Baldelli next turned to Cole Sands, who tossed 13 pitches in Sunday’s game. Lee’s insurance run proved how important insurance runs are. While Sands cruised through the inning well, he made one mistake with Jonny DeLuca at the plate. DeLuca matched Lee with his own solo shot, bringing the game back to within one run, 5-4. For the ninth inning, the Twins turned to Jhoan Durán. Durán slammed the door shut. Durán’s inning started with a rare pitch clock violation, but that didn’t rattle him. After two ground outs, the game ended with an emphatic strikeout of Caminero. With that win, the Twins continue to get back on track, controlling what they can control by winning the game in front of them. If they do that, the playoffs will still be in the windshield for Minnesota. What’s Next? On Tuesday, the Twins will send fellow rookie David Festa to the mound. Festa will look to follow up on his best start of the season after going six innings and striking out seven against the Braves. The Rays will hand the ball to Jeffrey Springs for his seventh start of the season. The left-hander brings a 3.67 ERA after giving up four runs in his last outing while facing the St. Louis Cardinals. Postgame Interviews Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet THU FRI SAT SUN MON TOT Blewett 0 0 54 0 0 54 Jax 0 3 0 27 18 48 Durán 0 11 0 13 14 38 Tonkin 0 0 37 0 0 37 Alcalá 0 0 0 0 32 32 Sands 0 0 0 13 17 30 Henríquez 0 0 0 0 20 20 Thielbar 0 0 19 0 0 19 Castillo 0 8 0 0 0 8 View full article

Tornado Sirens, Rain, and Wind helped the Minnesota Twins welcome the Braves to town. The Braves enjoyed that welcome as they hit starter Bailey Ober hard for nine quick runs to put the game away early. Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports Box Score SP: Bailey Ober: 2.0 IP, 7 H, 9 ER, 2 BB, 2 K (55 pitches, 32 strikes (58.2%) Home Runs: Kyle Farmer (2), Matt Wallner (10) Bottom 3 WPA: Bailey Ober (-0.494), Royce Lewis (-0.068), Austin Martin (-0.017) Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs) The Minnesota Twins had their ace on the mound and a reeling Atlanta Braves offense in town. It seemed that the stars were aligned as long as the offense could find something against the Braves’ top starter, Max Fried, Monday night could go the good guys' way. In many ways, we instead learned that when it rains, it pours. Brave score early and often The top of the lineup was filled with former Kansas City Royals. Whit Merrifield led the game off with a single, and Jorge Soler walked to put two on for the Braves 2024 MVP Marcell Ozuna. Ozuna came through with a single off Bailey Ober to score Merrifield and give the Braves a quick 1-0 lead. The Braves would not stop there. Up next was one of last season’s stars for the Braves, Matt Olson, who came through with a home run off of an Ober changeup deep to right-center field. While Olson hasn’t had the same season he had in 2024, over the past 28 days he has hit seven home runs and put up a .825 OPS. The Twins did try to keep the game within reach based on a lot of work from Manuel Margot. In his typical lead-off spot against a left-handed starter, Margot led off with a double. Margot then stole third base, putting him in position to score on a sacrifice fly off the bat of Jose Miranda. That brought the Twins within 3 with a 4-1 score. That quickly wouldn’t seem to matter at all. Ober got two outs quickly in the second inning, but everything seemed to unravel with two outs on the board. Back at the top of the Braves lineup, Merrifield doubled, Soler walked, Ozuna doubled and collected an RBI. Olson hit a sharp double on the ground, and two more runs scored. Before that final out would be recorded, catcher Travis d’Arnaud also got in on the hit parade and hit a two-run home run. In case you weren’t keeping score, the Braves were up 9-1 at the end of the second inning. It was precisely at that time that the skies opened up, and the winds blew strong, sending the game into a significant weather delay. It was obvious that Ober may have been finished for the night even without a delay. The Braves looked to have something on Ober’s changeup. Four out of the five run-scoring plays came off of the right-hander changeup. At 8:40 p.m., play resumed, and so did Braves starter Fried, which removed any silver linings from the rain delay for the Twins. Fried continued to cruise through Twins batters for most of his outing. Resulting in seven strikeouts and no real scoring threats until the fifth inning. If it wasn’t for a throwing error, Fried may have even been able to get through that inning clean. Scott Blewett executes It will go with little fanfare and likely under the radar of most fans, but Scott Blewett gave the Twins exactly the three innings they needed. In a game like Monday nights, it seemed that the team’s top goals would be to avoid freak injuries and use as few bullpen arms as possible. Blewett had to avoid the freak injury side early on after taking a comebacker off his pitching hand. From there, Blewett made quick work of the Braves on many fronts. By the time the Twins righty left the game, in fewer pitches and innings he had matched Max Fried in swings and misses with nine. Those swings and misses helped Blewett to three strikeouts while only giving up two hits on 39 pitches. Twins not ready to give up As previously mentioned, the Twins began showing life in the fifth inning. While much of Twins territory likely turned to other endeavors, the Twins weren’t ready to. Willi Castro started the action by reaching on a throwing error. Castro continued to show he was still playing for this game on a Wallner single when he hustled into third, forcing a throw that allowed Wallner to advance to second base. Austin Martin was next, and even though Fried had his number earlier in the game, he could squeak out a swing bunt, forcing Gio Urshela to mishandle the ball and allowing Castro to scamper across home plate. Margot followed up with another hit, plating Wallner, bringing the score to 9-3. Kyle Farmer and Matt Wallner would hit solo shots late to bring the game to within four runs. The lead was too great to overcome fully, but the team stayed away from key bullpen arms, hoping they would be set up to flush this game and come back strong tomorrow. What’s Next? Tuesday’s game will be a matchup of rookies. The Braves will send right-hander Spencer Schwellenbach to the mound. Swellenbach has made 14 starts this season, holding a 3.94 ERA and a 10.3 K/9. The Twins counter with Simeon Woods Richardson. Woods Richardson has his impressive season going with 22 starts and a 3.69 ERA, and he continues to give the Twins a chance in the games he starts. Postgame Interviews Coming Soon Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet THU FRI SAT SUN MON TOT Richards 0 44 0 0 33 77 Blewett 13 0 0 0 39 52 Durán 0 0 16 25 0 41 Henríquez 0 0 0 0 32 32 Jax 0 0 19 12 0 31 Sands 0 0 0 26 0 26 Alcalá 0 25 0 0 0 25 Thielbar 0 18 0 0 0 18 View full article

The Minnesota Twins ran into a red-hot San Diego Padres team and couldn't match their heat. Zebby Matthews held strong in many ways, but a fielding miscue loomed large once again, as the Twins lost. Image courtesy of © Denis Poroy-USA TODAY Sports Box Score SP: Zebby Matthews: 5.0 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 1 K (92 pitches, 59 strikes (64.1%) Home Runs: None Bottom 3 WPA: Zebby Matthews (-0.354), Carlos Santana (-0.083), Willi Castro (-0.077) Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs) This week, there's plenty of opportunity to be sentimental, as the Minnesota Twins visit the San Diego Padres. Old Friends Luis Arraez and Donovan Solano are both suiting up for the opponent. Monday night, Royce Lewis’s high-school baseball coach, Brett Kay, was watching him in person for the first time. Jayce Tingler was also returning to the place he once managed. The team waiting for them, though, is not especially friendly. The sunny San Diego weather did have the bats warm and ready to go from the beginning. In the first inning, after Trevor Larnach stroked a single, Matt Wallner (who had a rough Texas series) wanted to erase that from memory, and pulled a double down the right-field line. It was enough to allow Larnach to come around to score and put the Twins up early, 1-0. The Padres weren’t going to sit back and be silent. They put together a rally in the first inning, themselves. Zebby Matthews faced a flurry of challenging moments early in his second start. A hit-by-pitch for Arraez, who usually doesn’t need much help getting on base, followed by a Jurickson Profar flare single, put Matthews in a quick hole. With runners on first and third, Matthews induced an out from Jake Cronenworth on a grounder. It was also enough to score Arraez to tie up the game. Matthews was almost able to get out of his trouble, but with two outs, Xander Bogaerts hit a single to put the Padres up 2-1 at the end of the first inning. In the Twins half of the second inning, they quickly loaded the bases with one out with an Edouard Julien single, Christian Vazquez single, and Austin Martin single. What followed was one of the more savvy running plays we have seen, from rookie Martin. In the next at-bat, Willi Castro hit a ground ball to the right side of the infield, where Bogaerts had an excellent opportunity to tag Martin and throw out Castro for a double play. Instead, Martin alertly backpedaled to avoid the tag long enough to allow Castro to be safe and score Julien from third. Miscue and Walks loom large With the Padres up in the 3rd inning, Matthews faced a challenging base load and two-out situation. How he got there was not characteristic of this Twins team and Zebby himself. With one out, Carlos Santana missed a sharp grounder off his glove. Julien quickly recovered the ball to keep the ball out alive, but Matthews could not hang onto Julien’s throw as he covered first base. On the road to the bases-loaded situation, Matthews would then walk two batters. That coming from the right-hander who had walked seven batters all season throughout his minor league stops. Zebby still had a chance to get out of the inning safely, but fellow rookie Jackson Merrill, who is putting together his own impressive season, hit a bases-clearing double to put the Padres up 5-2. The score won’t tell the whole story The score when Matthews left the game was not good, with a 5-2 deficit. It doesn’t tell the whole story of how Matthews's outing went. In his second start, he faced a very good Padres lineup. He held his own in many ways and, in many moments, was one batter, pitch, or defensive play away from a clean inning. That is the growth edge from rookie to regular, reliable rotation arm. It is the type of outing that Matthews certainly will have hoped would have yielded better results, but there is a lot to continue to be excited about with the rookie pitcher. The tandem of bullpen arms that did come in for the Twins did keep the score where it was when Matthews left the game, albeit in two very different fashions. Trevor Richards, over two innings, left fans with a moth full of fingernails as he stranded runners on the basepaths. On the other hand, Caleb Thielbar used only nine pitches to get through the eighth inning and get the bats back up to the plate. The Twins did make a last minute surbe in the ninth while facing Padres closer Robert Suarez. Julien would walk and advance to second on defensive indifference. Vazquez would bring him around on a single. Resulting in a pinch-hitting opportunity for Jose Miranda as the potential game-tying run. While Miranda gave one pitch a long-ride foul, he ultimately would ground out, and the Padres ended up winners on Monday. What’s Next? The Twins will look to even the series with their best pitcher on the mound, Bailey Ober. The Padres will counter with Martin Perez, who put together a 4.62 ERA for the season. Fans can expect a right-handed heavy starting lineup as the Padres send out the left-hander. Postgame Interviews Coming Soon Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet THU FRI SAT SUN MON TOT Alcalá 20 0 9 19 0 48 Jax 15 19 0 9 0 43 Richards 0 0 0 13 27 40 Durán 18 13 0 6 0 37 Sands 0 18 9 0 0 27 Henríquez 0 0 27 0 0 27 Thielbar 0 18 0 0 9 27 Okert 0 8 0 0 0 8 View full article