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Everything posted by Han Joelo
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On The Twins' Cheapness And Showing Your Work
Han Joelo replied to Bill Parker's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I agree with what you've written here. They are damned if they do (Hughes extension, Nolasco) spend the money, and if they don't (insert mythical free-agent actual difference maker here.) Although I don't live in a city with a major publicly subsidized stadium, wouldn't it be fair if the owners "spent" the under on their expected budget on local charities? Heck, maybe they did. Cynically, I'd assume that money is in the Cayman Islands, or a SuperPac, or, being a westerner, maybe they spent it on 50,000 acres of formerly public land. -
ZERO innings for Berrios? Holy cripes. If my video game console did that I'd throw it out the window. Of all people, I would imagine the Baseball Prospectus people have a graph charting page hits, and I'm sure it's got a nice spike in it right now. My uneducated guess would be that 80% of all fan bases are outraged about their projection right now. "Some supposedly smart guy I've never heard of thinks my teams sucks! He's an idiot!" I wonder, though--why is it "luck" when a team doesn't make their projections, but a "miss" when the computers are wrong? As if a "hit" is a preordained conclusion?
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- eduardo escobar
- eddie rosario
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Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA Says The Twins Will Suck Less
Han Joelo replied to Parker Hageman's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
Pecota, pecata. Let's call the whole thing off. -
There is no way in hell I would give ESPN the satisfaction of extracting even $15 from me for content I can get for free other places. I've already read enough blurbs here and other places that I can easily fill in the blanks. Unless someone is holding back something really juicy, like only Klaw has noticed Stewart eats Special K with Banana every morning, and the last pitcher to do that was Pedro Martinez. Come on, spill the beans. I want the "inside" scoop!! The fact you have to pay for it doesn't make it any more valid. On the other hand, if ESPN would have asked me for $15 a year to read ad-free Grantland, I would have happily obliged, if it would have meant its survival.
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Gleeman's Top 40 Twins Prospects Countdown
Han Joelo replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Minor League Talk
I have always enjoyed Gleeman, if you can call it that. Maybe appreciate or respect is better. He's a sharp mind and a good writer. Don't always agree with him, but I try to keep my horizons broad. My days started with Seth Stohs and Aaron Gleeman for quite a while there. He's barely even trying to hold back his disdain for this group of prospects. And he probably isn't wrong, unfortunately. -
Catching Up With RHP Jeff Manship
Han Joelo replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Nicely done. Glad to see him settle into a meaningful role and career. I look at all the guys who have had moderate success after leaving the Twins, your Manships and Parmalees and what not, and see that as a testament to the Twins' player development ability. Can you try and interview a former player who will say the Twins run a crappy organization and Terry Ryan is an idiot? I'm not actually joking; would be interesting to hear if that perspective exists. -
I don't know either of these guys, but I feel like I "know" Darnell after following his progress over the years. I thought he was as about as uncontroversial a prospect as you can get. No strong calls that he was getting blocked, or blocking someone, or didn't get a chance, etc. In my recollection, it was Dean who took the brunt of the Zach Jones loss angst. Darnell was just a left-handed guy. What I think about is a 27 year old young man (does he have a wife? Young kids?) who suddenly is unemployed. What little certainty he had--Florida in a month, Rochester after that most likely--is suddenly gone. He went from thinking he had a punchers chance of making the 25 man, and with it the paycheck (not to mention the dream). Now…waiting for the phone to ring. Might get a shot, might end up in Arizona for ST and then??? I want to win and watch stars as much as the next person, but the human stories interest me just as much anymore. I'm not suggesting it was the wrong decision. I do think it is fascinating to think about the guys on the fringe, and both of these guys are the definition of the fringe--27 years old, infinitesimal chance to be a star, long odds even to become regulars. And it is so ironic that in a sport awash with money, guys like this are possibly barely surviving financially, which is something Logan and I might have in common, besides being left-handed. I wish both of them the best. This move feels like a gin rummy move, where you pick up a 9 you probably won't need, and discard a 10 you probably won't need.
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Per Jon Heyman, Antonio Bastardo has an agreement with...
Han Joelo replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Other Baseball
For what its worth, I read on MLBTR that the Pirates offered two years/$8 million. Given they know him best, I think that price tag and what he got indicates the marginally incremental value he provides. I'm more excited to see if Chargois or Burdi can arrive on the scene and announce their presence with authority. Bastardo just isn't that much of difference maker to get upset about. -
Catching Up With LHP Stephen Gonsalves
Han Joelo replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I liked his explanation (not excuse) about his numbers dropping off in Florida--shows he didn't use the heat as an excuse, so much as a learning opportunity. Mature. Not every young pitcher from San Diego gets to work out with Strasburg, Shields, et al. Another point in favor of his makeup. Hard to put a number on something like that. Shields, Strasburg, and Young all strike me as smart, competitive types who wouldn't just workout with a kid because he happened to have the right connections. He strikes me as someone who could really move fast now…Seth, your little "probably not a 2016 debut" comment might be on his wall. -
Catching Up With LHP Stephen Gonsalves
Han Joelo replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
After reading this last night, I checked out mlb pipelines LHP top ten list. Stephen didn't make it, but was listed in the "up next" part. Apparently he was a popular name in trade talks last summer. -
Catching Up With LHP Stephen Gonsalves
Han Joelo replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Wow. I like this kids attitude. I say confident, not arrogant. Seems like he knows what he's trying to do. -
Thrylos's Top 40 Twins Prospect Countdown
Han Joelo replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Minor League Talk
Thanks again for sharing. As if I needed another reason to feel ok with the Twins offseason bullpen plans, see you have Burdi ranked at 3. confirmed it (along with Chargois and Reed). Plus, regardless of how people want to define "prospect," it's fun to read about some of the new blood. -
Luckily the Twins don't have to pick one, they've already picked both. That dilemma may become relevant if a trade proposal comes up, but for now, I'm happy to be fans of both. Here's one for you: Pick one--Parent X's kid: Reading at a second grade level in kindergarten. My kid: not. Which one will grow up to be a writer? Or a scientist? My point being, there are people behind the numbers. Room for analytics AND scouting.
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- nick gordon
- byron buxton
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What's Next For Alex Meyer?
Han Joelo replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Given the amount of other hard-throwing relief prospects the Twins have, I really want to give Meyer another shot starting. I know it isn't exactly apples to apples, but watching my 6 year old develop (in many different ways--reading, bike riding, this weekend downhill skiing--age/maturity does matter, and light-bulbs do go off. A year ago my son wouldn't even try any of the above activities without major teeth pulling, but as he's matured, and he's been given ownership and choice over the decision to do those things, he's taken off. Again, not a perfect comparison--a lot more relative difference between a 5 and 6 year old than a 25 and 26 year old, but you never know. Maybe Alex saw a sports psychologist all winter, or took up Tai Chi, or something else that might help him break through.- 34 replies
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- alex meyer
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Wait…what exactly do you mean? Seems like a rather broad statement. Really just comes off, to me, as a reactionary "hiring a scout proves the Twins don't value analytics" statement. I don't disagree there is/was some truth to that statement, but no results since 1994?
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- minnesota twins
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Thrylos's Top 40 Twins Prospect Countdown
Han Joelo replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Minor League Talk
I think one of the reasons baseball is my favorite sport to follow is the prospect side of it and all the player development. Thanks for this list--really interesting to hear about these guys for the first time. Outside of looking for a big name like Sano or Javier, I don't get anything out of looking at DSL of even GCL box scores. I don't know if I favor one definition of prospect over another, but I like the variety. While I hope Buxton and Park have ROY-worthy seasons, I have a hard time thinking of either of them as anything close to my general definition of a "rookie." -
Christina Kahrl (ESPN) picks Sano as breakout hitter
Han Joelo replied to gunnarthor's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
While Sano's "breakout" didn't go unnoticed by hardcore baseball fans, I would say he didn't get near the love that say Kris Bryant got. This year he will "break out" in the national media, I guess. While articles like this are somewhat meaningless, it is fun to have the words "MVP candidate," "home run champ," and "Minnesota Twins" in the same article. Maybe the Twins can sweep the Quadruple Crown of individual awards--MVP, ROY, Manager, and Comeback (Hughes?) -
That was fun to watch. All except Meyer. His body language was not that of a person who felt much satisfaction out of getting his first major league strikeout. Still, in regards to Meyer, it is good to be reminded of what he is/represents. He was a tip-top prospect just a year ago, and one less than stellar year hasn't erased all his attributes and potential. Whether it is the bullpen, or the rotation, Meyer could represent one of the big 'acquisitions' of the offseason.
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- miguel sano
- byron buxton
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Is Melotakis a Secret Hidden Weapon?
Han Joelo replied to Han Joelo's topic in Twins Minor League Talk
I won't tackle the "hiding" part, other than to say they didn't end up doing it any way. The way I read it is that someone would likely have taken him, especially given that Jones was taken--they're are both hard throwing relievers, but Melotakis is also also left-handed. And apparently closer to major league ready. Unless you think Radcliffe is just blowing smoke to cover for their lack of action? -
Nice post on MLBTR about a Baseball America article written by Phil Miller. I haven't read the subscription required article, but the post talks about how the Twins essentially were hiding Melotakis during his rehab, but in the end decided to protect him on the 40 man anyway. This is the best part: "We’re not projecting what his stuff might be—we saw it, we know it’s back. He’s going to be a major leaguer very soon,” says Radcliff. Here’s more on baseball outside the Majors. The "very soon" part might not change anyone's mind that thinks the Twins should be signing a significant lefty bullpen piece, but does it move the needle a bit?
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The OP talked about how the Twins organization as a whole hasn't changed since the Pohlads bought the team. 31 years without a significant outside hire. I think this is why I don't spend too much time parsing out who did what while TR was on hiatus. I'll bet most of the scouts that worked for the Twins were the same before, during, and after Bill Smiths time at the top. Including the one who pushed for Sano. And that one scout and the decision to go with his recommendation, a decision that was probably "voted on" by everyone at the top of this organization, will probably have as much to do with whether or not the Twins win a WS as anything. GM's in all of sports get a lot of credit and a lot of blame, as they should, but they are only as good as the people they are surround by. There is probably a good reason why teams stick to a regime. As noted above, the Giants and Athletics are two examples. Sabean and Beane have made a lot of good and bad decisions; the Giants have won a couple of championships, in no small part, I would argue, due to getting "lucky" in drafting Madison Bumgarner. At the moment of truth, had Sabean listened to the scout who was clamoring for Shooter Hunt instead, things might have turned out differently. Of course, the scout who wanted Mad Bum was the same one who said Liriano would never amount to anything…and yes, I made up those last two sentences. And as well as the Houston "rebuild" is going, can Luhnow be held without fault for drafting Appel twice, once at the "cost" of instead picking Kris Bryant? Will Epstein even be in Chicago five years from now, when the Cubs MIGHT be saddled with "albatross" contracts to Lester and Heyward? Anyway, Merry Christmas. Not to let anyone off the hook, but I am thankful the Twins have so much exciting young talent right now, and I am really looking forward to the next few years of baseball.
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First of all, well rebutted. I wasn't being nuanced, apparently, but rather just unclear, when I insinuated the author felt like a scorned job applicant. As written, actually, I stated the article itself felt like a scorned job applicant. What I really meant to say was that I felt like the article was written by a scorned job applicant. I succumbed in the middle to a kind of sweeping generalization of which I generally despise. Thank you for kindly pointing that out. If I had of written it better, I would have written something that better reflects the idea that a poster like yourself, in favor of regime change, is in fact speaking from a well thought out and dare I say it "nuanced" position. As for Epstein and Luhnow, I certainly give them credit for their two championships in the last 22 years combined. They've made a lot of good decisions, as well as a couple of clunkers. I just don't see them as all that vastly different from Terry Ryan.
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This article felt like it was written by someone who was snubbed for a job with the Twins. "I didn't want to work for those fuddy-duddy stick-in-the-muds anyway." This debate is getting old; on the one side are people that will always despise the ownership and management of the Twins, some to the point of claiming anything good that has ever happened was either lucky or was forced upon Ryan. The rest of us are more pragmatic or nuanced in our beliefs. Better the devil you know... I've stated before, I was a long-time fan of the Miami Dolphins, and "suffered" for many years watching Don Shula and Dan Marino come up short in the draft and on the field. But what has happened since the team was sold (now twice) has been embarrassing. Chasing GM's and coaches and big ticket free agent fixes, all for a Super Bowl drought that now exceeded the one Shula had presided over when he was kicked to the curb. I'm all for innovation, but if the Twins were sold and a GM like Preller came in and did what he did I'd be much more upset than I am over the fact TR had to overpay to get the "Big Four" to come and pitch for the Twins.
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Totally agree with you…this time around. Nice way to put it in perspective, though. Cripes, to think that an elite prospect like Buxton isn't ready, or should be looked at through Aaron Hicks goggles is just silly. As far as Sano's outfield defense, I look forward to watching him rifle it in. Body of a blacksmith, legs of a gazelle. Or, hell, a freakin rhino. They're pretty fast.
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- byron buxton
- miguel sano
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I'm sorry, I've seen a lot of posts that paint Terry Ryan as a bumbling fool who is only good when he is lucky, but to conjecture that he was part of some diabolical scheme to keep Park from all 29 other MLB teams, only to have the plan blow up in his face because, well, he's a bumbling fool…I can't even grammatically complete this sentence. Are you saying TR thought Park was good enough that through some crazy addition by subtraction, Park, at best, would be prevented from helping another team out, but he's not good enough to actually sign? If there are ulterior motives, I think it would be that the Park signing was driven in large part by the marketing opportunities in Korea it will provide.

