stringer bell

I guess I hold Florimon as more valuable than you do. I don't think anyone will designate someone with more value than he has shown. Colabello, OTOH, isn't a proven major leaguer, AAA and spring training notwithstanding. Two spots on the 40-man--claim at least one guy to supplant someone on the current 25 man roster.

I think he can be a much better hitter than Cuddyer. Really needs to make contact more often.

Well, maybe the Twins are doing something right. There are several players being designated with the rosters needing to be finalized and some of them could help the Twins. They have two spots left on the 40-man and it appears they can make room on the 25-man (Colabello and Bartlett) if they need to do so.

After a bit of a hiatus, here is the completion of my blog: 6) Josmil Pinto--I was glad that Pinto made the club. Along with Arcia and Hicks, these guys are the start of a new infusion of talent that could and should make the Twins contenders again. It looks to me like Pinto can hit--he's advanced from Class A in the last two years and has shown that he gets it. His defense seems to be lagging, but he has the tools and the work ethic to become a decent receiver. Pinto has some power and has shown good plate coverage and patience. While I doubt he will contend for Rookie of the Year, I think he will get his chance to become a mainstay this year. I don't think the Twins should bother with DHing him much, but rather he needs to get more and more time playing the game. I'll be quite satisfied with 80-90 starts at catcher and a 100 OPS+. 7) Chris Colabello--It appears to me that Colabello has the most tenuous hold on a roster spot since he has options remaining. Yes, he was the AAA MVP and yes, he has been strong during the spring, but he is 30 years old and last year he hit .194 with a 75 OPS+ in 181 plate appearances. IMHO, that is more than a cup of coffee. The Twins played him in right a few games, but he is really only a first baseman. I've said it before, but I will repeat that I can't help but be skeptical of a supposed power hitter who isn't able to pull the ball with authority. Colabello's story is heart-warming and shows that almost anything can happen, but I can't see him as more than a fringe major leaguer. 8) Oswaldo Arcia--One of the key guys this year for the Twins. Despite some monumental strikeout numbers, Arcia showed good power. His minor league stats showed him to be a better percentage hitter. Arcia also has to improve in the field. It looks like he'll be the everyday right fielder so he can concentrate on one position. A more well-rounded all-around game would set him up as a key member of the good Twins teams to come. 9) Pedro Florimon--The Twins got him for nothing a few years ago. He's given them more than nothing in return. How is that for damning with faint praise? Actually, Florimon proved in a year of full-time duty that he is a really good defender at a key defensive position. Offense? Not so much. He intrigues me because he has a little pop in his bat (9 homers) and good wheels. His splits showed a RH bat that was abysmal, although in the minors, he had hit better from that side. He strikes out too much and walks too little. AT 27, it is unlikely that he'll improve much with the lumber. I think he needs to concentrate and making contact and using his legs to get on more. He can be an asset with an 85 or 90 OPS+. 10) Jason Kubel--I'm surprised that Kubel made the team based on his past season and his spring training. In person, Kubel's bat looks slow, but to me, Kubel's bat always looked slow except when he made contact. He's going to get some chances to play outfield and he's going to DH a lot. I am thinking his decline will continue, but perhaps there's something left if he's healthy. IMHO, Kubel is a Band-Aid solution to bad offense, but if he's healthy he will put up won't be an embarrassment.

30, one position, coming off a season with 181 PAs, .194 BA, 75 OPS+

Well, the team is bringing Hicks, Colabello, Bartlett + Kubel north. Based on their performances last year, I would say most anything would be an upgrade. Three of the four I listed are over 30, so I don't see much upside in them. There is a lack of speed and no backup center fielder. That is a lot of holes to plug.

Specifically, for Tuososopo, the question would be if he was an improvement over Colabello. CC has options remaining, so he could be sent down. If the Twins were interested in either of the two Seattle DFAs, optioning Colabello would be the way they could stay in the majors. At 24, one would think they do have options remaining anyway.

Another DFA is Matt Tuiososopo who had a nice year for the Tigers last year. He'll be 28 in May, and has played left field, third, and first. He's even played in the middle infield a bit. He is certainly more "proven" than Colabello and more versatile. I hope this isn't thread jacking, but it is about the same general topic--players the Twins can or should claim with their two 40-man vacancies.

Unless the Twins make a waiver claim, their roster is set for the start of the 2014 season. Several players have been hot topics here on Twins Daily. I will offer my takes on 10 players and hope that they stimulate some conversation. 1) Joe Mauer--Now the Twins regular first baseman and unquestioned best player. Mauer is the biggest certainty on the team. He will hit and he won't say anything controversial. Joe still needs to learn a little about first base, he has struggled some there this spring. I expect that problem to be temporary, and I expect that Mauer will be an excellent defensive 1B by midseason. It does show that even a premium athlete like Mauer can't necessarily be bounced around the diamond. I am a traditionalist, I guess. I have always believed the team's best hitter should hit third. Tony-O, Kirby, Knoblauch, and Molitor to name just a few examples. Mauer is the best hitter--he should bat third and the other guys should fill in the spots around him. 2) Aaron Hicks--After reading the "Put Me in Coach" blog about Hicks, the phrase "fool me once, shame on you--fool me twice, shame on me" comes to mind. The posters are basing Hicks' future performance on his obvious athletic gifts and (gulp) strong second half of spring training. Aaron Hicks fell somewhere between "failure" and "disappointment" in 2013. To expect him to excel is a huge jump. I'm hoping for extreme improvement where most metrics show him to be average. I have posted quite often on Hicks' future. I believe Byron Buxton is the real deal--a future All-Star fixture with a near unlimited ceiling. If that is true, Hicks would have to move to a corner to have a future as a Twin. I remain unconvinced that he will hit enough to ever justify such a move. I believe he will hit and field well enough eventually to be an above-average center fielder, which makes him a valuable trade chip. I like what Hicks brings to the table. I hope he succeeds, but I don't think he will ever hit enough to be a regular left or right fielder. One more cautionary thought: Hicks has to go some to be better than average defensively. Last year he struggled early and settled in and was pretty good. That doesn't make him elite. With more experience, he has the tools to be an elite defender and I would expect he can get there, but that isn't a done deal yet, either. 3) Trevor Plouffe--He actually had a pretty good spring FWIW. Baseball curmudgeon Patrick Reusse had a nice article on "Plouffsie", which captured the ups and downs of a flawed, but serviceable player. Plouffe is perhaps the Twins best hope to hit for power from the right side, he seemed to show a better approach at the plate late last year and this spring. Let's not kid ourselves, unless Plouffe exceeds 20 long balls, the flaws will exceed the improvements as a hitter. Trevor is neither one of the current wave or an aging veteran. He and Dozier and a couple of pitchers are bridges to the next surge for the Twins. Plouffe doesn't seem to have the instincts to ever be a truly good defender or baserunner, but if he can bash the baseball, we can forgive much of his downside. I've never met him, but I've read his tweets and comments in the papers and I like what I've read. It's a huge season for Trevor--if he disappoints, he could be non-tendered and perhaps become a baseball nomad, like his friend Delmon Young. If he steps forward, he could become part of the Twins future (maybe in left field) and probably garner a very nice contract. I'm cautiously optimistic. 4) Josh Willingham--Speaking of RH power, there is the Hammer. Willingham is a bat-first "corner outfielder". Obviously, he needs to hit to be an asset. Last year, he didn't hit. This spring has offered no encouragement that he will hit, but it's only Spring Training. Willingham is 35, making him the oldest Twin and it is possible that his decline has started and was escalated by injury last year. It is also possible that Willingham has a lot of good swings left. Last year was ruined by injuries but this is a contract year, so Willingham will have every incentive to play and produce as much as possible. I think that the most important (and uncertain) man in the lineup is Hammer. If he resembles his Silver Slugger self of 2012, Mauer will get a lot of good pitches to hit and Willingham will have a lot of runners on base to drive in. If he's more like last year, the lineup really crumbles around him. Defensively, Willingham's best postion is DH. I hope the Twins can find three better outfielders that can hit a little so that Hammer can just hit. I have speculated that it is truly unlikely that Willingham remains a Twin. I hope he hits enough to net something by the trading deadline. 5) Eduardo Escobar--He is this year's second-string quarterback. His hitting flaws are minimized because everyone saw that Florimon is a poor hitter. In my book, Escobar is a very nice three-position utility infielder. Besides this, he might play a few innings in the outfield and (shudder) might even find himself behind the plate. Why is Esco a utility guy? He doesn't hit enough to be a regular and he's not a defensive upgrade at the two middle infield positions. Escobar looks to have a better bat than Florimon, and plays better in the field than Plouffe. He has soft hands and a really good arm, but I don't think his has plus range at short and he doesn't have great footwork at second. Escobar is an injury or implosion away from starting at second or short. As a switch hitter, he might get quite a few PAs at third, as well. I don't see Escobar as a regular, but I think he could be a fine utility guy for a long time. If his hitting tools steps forward, he could be more. Since this post is getting pretty long, I'll continue later with a new blog.

I think Willingham is an absolute key if the Twins offense is to improve. If he's not a threat, Mauer doesn't get pitched to, and more pressure is on the younger guys to produce. Spring training doesn't matter to an established guy like the Hammer, but the results this spring haven't built observer's confidence.

I'll admit I haven't heard of either player, but Seattle DFAed two young players, one a speedy OF and the other a middle infielder with pretty good hitting numbers at AAA. Carlos Triunfel is a 24 year old middle infielder. He's played 27 games in the majors, and was a Top 100 prospect. He's been a pretty good hitter in Triple A the last two years. Xavier Avery, also 24, played 32 games for the Orioles two years ago. He a lefty all the way who has played mostly CF in the minors. It looks like he has stolen base speed, but not much power. Should the Twins have any interest in either of these guys? From what I can see on BBRef, I would think they are exactly the kind of guys the Twins should be looking to claim with their two vacant roster spots.

Agree, agree, agree! Unless the Twins somehow catch lightning in a bottle and everybody has a peak year and they contend, they must turn over the roster to younger, higher ceilinged players. Every player over thirty not born in Minnesota really should be on the block. I was thinking that success this year would be measured by the progress of the young players and when I mentally went through them, I realized how many over-30s were on the team. I still stand by that definition of success: It will be a good year if Arcia, Gibson, Pinto, and Hicks establish themselves and I'll add Plouffe to that list. The Twins will open with only one player born in the '90s (Osvaldo Arcia) and two born in the '70s (Bartlett & Willingham)

Has someone in the Twins organization said something about Florimon recently? I know Gardy was a bit concerned that he wouldn't be ready, but he has played with the regulars almost every day for the past week. If there was a contingency to disable P-Flo, the Twins wouldn't have wanted him to play in major league exhibitions. He can't be disabled retroactively, so barring a new injury, I see no possibility that he will stay in Florida when the Twins go to Chicago on the 31st.

If the Twins were considering Florimon staying back, they wouldn't have played him in major league exhibition games. They would have to either disable him or option him (if he has any options). If they wanted to give him an extra week to get readym, they could have played him in minor league games, and disabled him retroactively.

I also want to comment on the Twin front office. Antony made a comment a week ago about guys stepping up and I think it was a tactical mistake, especially given that some of the guys that didn't step up made the team anyway. Secondly, the Twins seem to lose more guys for nothing than any other team. Alex Burnett, Tyler Robertson, Liam Hendriks, Alex Presley, Vance Worley, and Joe Benson come to mind off the top of my head. Not so much that they are letting go the next David Ortiz, but shouldn't they be better at getting something for the guys that don't make the team? Ryan's absence notwithstanding, the Twins front office has a lot of experience, yet they haven't seemed to handle the 40-man roster well at all. Finally, a note of optimism! Keeping the three thirtysomethings (Colabello, Kubel, and Bartlett) might be the lead up to more youth and talent. The Twins have apparently decided that Presley, Parmelee and Diamond (all supposedly in the prime of their careers) can't cut it and have opted instead for role playing veterans (Colabello--I know) perhaps to help the Arcias, Hickses, Pintos, Gibsons etc. get going and thrive in MLB. The next wave, including top prospects in all of baseball isn't far off. If the younger players I've mentioned thrive this year, at least some of the losing will be worth it.

Commenting on the DFAs: Presley--I had predicted that Alex Presley would be the starting center fielder on 3/31. I had been of the opinion that Presley could hold CF until Hicks showed he was really ready to be a major league regular. He's a fourth OF, nothing more. And his skill set includes not quite enough bat, not quite enough speed and so-so defense. After last year's CF debacle, I stunned the Twins didn't keep him and I'm surprised the 'Stros claimed him. Parmelee--I like what Parmelee did in right field last year. He seems like a good guy, but with his skill set, he's got to be a hitter and he hasn't been a good hitter since his September 2011 audition. He will go to Rochester to try to recapture his "beast mode" performance of 2012, but I don't know if he will ever be back with the Twins. Young guys are coming that will pass him by soon. Diamond--I remarked on another thread that I like Scott Diamond. I realize he has a small margin for error with his pedestrian fastball and so-so breaking pitches, but he has had success before and I think he'll choose free agency rather than going to Rochester. I expect that he'll get another opportunity, maybe more, and that he will again have major league success.

I can't say that I'm happy with the decisions and they certainly didn't go the way I predicted. On Kubel, the metrics look pretty daunting, spring training didn't provide any encouragement. I'm not brokenhearted that he made the team, because there wasn't a lot around that was much better. Bartlett: I never thought he had a chance and his spring performance again was abysmal. He hasn't played very much at any position but shortstop, so trying to make him a super-utility guy is a real stretch. I'd rather have a lot of Rochester guys making the team over Bartlett. Colabello: He will get a chance to DH some, I would guess. FWIW, he did have a good spring and was impressive defensively at first base. However, I don't want to see Colabello try to play outfield and I remain highly skeptical of a supposed power hitter who can't pull the ball with authority.

With Colabello making the team, there won't be much need for Pinto to DH.

Diamond cleared waivers and is deciding whether to accept assignment to AAA. I didn't remember that he had been outrighted before, so this is a surprise to me. I sincerely doubt he will accept assignment in Rochester unless he feels like no other team offers him a better opportunity to get back to the majors. Say what you will about adding the three free-agent right handers, but I think Diamond will have a better shot with several other teams. If so, the Twins will lose him for $50,000 less than they paid for him.

I've talked briefly with Diamond two consecutive years and he was engaging and humorous. He went over to the fence where autographs are given, most walk on by. He talked a bit to everybody he signed for and would take a (superficial) interest in them (where they were from, how they like FL and for the kids, what position they played). Based on this, I disagree with you Thry. Maybe I've caught him on good days but after seeing him in person, I like Diamond more. Obviously, Scott has a limited upside, but I wouldn't be at all surprised to see him get and keep and major league job. I hope the Twins can get a minimal prospect for him, but most of all I hope he succeeds.

I think Guerra will pitch for the Twins sometime this year. He looked very good in Ft. Myers and he is reportedly healthy, which is the reason why he has struggled and also why he isn't considered much of a prospect.

The floor of the pitching staff has been raised considerably. The Twins will start four veterans, all with more than six years of service and long track records before they start a "wildcard" (Gibson). Their ceilings wouldn't project to be very high, but they have all been mostly serviceable pitchers in their careers. The bullpen is pretty good and (especially if Thielbar is sent out) reinforcements from Rochester may be better than the guys pitching in the middle. The lineup isn't good and the players haven't impressed in ST. The success of the offense will depend on how many times Joe Mauer trots around the bases after a home run IMHO. What? No! What I am saying is that because of having so many low OBP guys on their team and little speed, the Twins aren't going to produce many runs by bunching hits and walks or moving guys around with productive outs. Their key to scoring runs will be hitting homers, specifically from the middle of the order. If Mauer gets on at a 40% clip, and Hammer, Kubel or Arcia, and Plouffe hit a lot of homers (100 between the four?) maybe the Twins can score a few more runs and Joe will be jogging around the bases as a runner on board when those guys connect. It's kind of a long shot plan, but so would having the OBPs jump for most or all of Suzuki, Dozier, Hicks, and Florimon. I hope by midseason that Hammer is traded, Suzuki is demoted or traded, and that new DH Kennys Vargas has already made his considerable presence felt. We won't see Sano this year, and Buxton is a long shot, but there are other guys in the system with a chance to be good big leaguers.

IMHO, these are tough calls, despite the Jasons' struggles in the spring. The Twins have pulled the trigger keeping Kubel, so there is really only one spot remaining among the position players. Send Bartlett and Colabello down and keep them ready for a vacancy from injury/poor play. On the pitching side, it seems pretty apparent that Diamond has lost out in the fifth starter derby. Gardy seemed to be indicating that the Twins think he's a major league starter (not a good fit for the bullpen) which would indicate DFA or a trade. I like how Diamond goes about his work, I do think he gets the most from his ability and with a big outfield and rangy defenders, he might again have success. It looks to me like that will be with a different team if it happens.

So I guess the real question is who is the 25th guy? Colabello, Bartlett, and Parmelee are fighting for one spot IMHO. While he fits the poorest of these three, I hope the Twins take Parmelee. If it doesn't work out, they can undo that move and promote either CC or "Barty".

I try to avoid Fangraphs, but I just saw BBTN's rating on first basemen. Mauer was tabbed as #4, ahead of Prince, Tex, Davis and a host of others, trailing only Miggy, Goldschmidt, and Votto. That gives me some hope. Then I checked the archives to see how highly they rated the Twins' second best position player. Well, Dozier didn't make their Top Ten, and didn't merit mention in their analysis. Hmmm, I guess I have him as a Top Ten 2B.