stringer bell

Kyle Gibson started the 2014 season in the Twins rotation and stayed in the rotation the entire season. He won 13 games, the most by a homegrown pitcher for the Twins since Kevin Slowey won 13 in 2010. Gibson had 10 starts in 2013 and was pretty much ineffective. He had a strong spring training and his competitors for the fifth spot did not. Gibson started 31 games, missing one turn for back spasms. Gibson's performance was wildly uneven. At midseason, he had racked up several outstanding starts and quite a few "no-chance" outings where the team was out of the game before Gibson left the mound, often in the early innings. Kyle sputtered late in the season, going from August 19 to September 23 without a quality start. His overall numbers are underwhelming, a 4.47 ERA, despite a 3.80 FIP, only 107 strikeouts and 56 walks. Gibson yielded only 12 homers and consistently induced a high percentage of ground ball outs. What has surprised me about Gibson is his lack of command. He throws a lot of pitches outside the strike zone and when hitters have the count advantage, they don't chase. Gibson's 92-94 mph fastball doesn't get by many hitters when they are ahead of the count. When he is hitting his spots, he can be extremely tough. Gibson allowed slightly less hits than innings pitched. His strikeout numbers increased as the season wore on, but ended up among the lowest among qualifiers. Most have granted Gibson a rotation spot for 2015. I would expect that he will be starting for the Twins in their first series. He threw almost 180 innings without any arm issues, and finished the tail end of the season strongly. Gibson turns 27 this month, so he's not really a young player. Most TD posters have labeled Gibson as a mid-rotation guy. I have always thought that he could be better than that. He has demonstrated dominating stuff when he has good command and Gibson is enough of a student to figure it out and become more consistent. I expect improvement for Gibson, in part because the team will improve and probably have a better defense behind him next year and in the years to come. I think Gibson will be a part of the Twins rotation when they are a playoff team. I expect he'll be a #1 or #2 by then.

It really doesn't have to be an ex-Twin. Pitching coach is probably the one position on the coaching staff that could have a real impact on the team's results this season. I'm sure that any managerial candidate has a short list of pitching coaches he wants if he gets a job.

Chief, I have agreed with your take about corner outfield defense. Still do. That said, having a ++center fielder would improve the outfield defense dramatically IMHO. If Bourjas (sp?) can hit enough to hold that spot it would really be helpful. Not sure about the bat though.

Eye test comment: Joe Mauer is already a good first baseman. Because he is 6'5" he has the largest reach of any Twins first baseman in their history. He made a lot of diving stops and got much more comfortable on the first to pitcher plays as the season wore on. He's becoming more instinctual on positioning for hitters and cutoffs. In another year, he could be a Gold Glove candidate. Could Mauer be adequate on an outfield corner? I suppose, but it probably would take most of a season for him to get to that point. There is no question that Mauer has slowed as a runner, so his range in the outfield wouldn't be a positive. He does have a good arm, which could play at either outfield corner. While I am an advocate of challenging the Twins' first baseman to be better than he was last year, I don't think moving him after one year as a first baseman is a smart decision.

Oswaldo Arcia finished 2014 playing in 103 games, mostly due to a wrist injury suffered early in the season. His statistics are similar to his rookie season in 2013. Arcia pounded 20 homers, but struck out 127 times in just 410 plate appearances. Arcia also hit .231 with a .300 OBP. The power is undeniable, but the combination of the large number of no-chance at-bats and below average defense has made Arcia less than a productive player. Arcia has been in the Twins' system for seven years. In his minor league career, Oswaldo had an OBP of .376 and a batting average of .314. His top home run season was 17 in 124 games, but home run power seems to be his primary asset as a major leaguer. I submit that his batting percentage and OBP have been a disappointment. He seems to be very fond of hitting long home runs at the expense of being a total hitter. Much has been made of a mechanical flaw but the problem is exacerbated by trying to hit the ball 500 feet. Oswaldo is going to hit home runs if he gets at-bats. He needs to be a more well-rounded hitter to get regular at-bats, not Adam Dunn minus the walks. Arcia hit below the Mendoza line against left handed pitching, with a .574 OPS. The Twins used 2014 as a training/learning experience for him, despite his paltry numbers. If he continues to struggle against southpaws, it wouldn't surprise me that the new manager will limit his at-bats against lefties. This year Arcia played exclusively in right field. He made more good plays and displayed a strong arm. That is the good news. He continued to make some bad misplays and missed cutoff men and threw to the wrong base far too often. I continue to see enough for Arcia to be an average or better defender, but he has to focus and work on his defense as hard as he works on his swing. Arcia has shown enough to have earned a lot of rope before he would be benched, platooned or demoted. He needs to make progress both at the plate and in the field to guarantee continued regular playing time in 2015 and beyond. I think he needs to have a much better two-strike plan. He is still only 23. Barring injury, Oswaldo Arcia will start 2015 as the Twins regular right fielder and will still be 23 years old. He is still a very raw player, often doing amazing and stupefying things in the same game. He has shown the ability to be an All-Star hitter in the middle of a contending lineup and then turned around and looked like an 18-year-old in he Rookie League. 2015 should be a big season for Arcia. If he progresses, he'll probably be a cornerstone of a fast-improving franchise. If he stagnates, Twins fans will move on to someone else to be their power-hitting right fielder (Adam Brett Walker anyone?).

To Bark's point about doing well in an offensive downtown--Plouffe had an OPS+ of 106 in his breakout home run year when he had an OPS of .756. This year's .751 netted an OPS+ of 110 despite being lower than his 2012 OPS number.

Maybe this needs a thread of its own. What I saw in Mauer this year was that his tried and true hitting approach isn't working nearly as well as it did in the previous years. As I stated before, he hits so many balls to left field that fielders have shifted over and he hasn't altered his spray chart by pulling more balls. He is hitting more lazy fly balls (to left) and less line drives. Mauer struck out a career high and almost certainly would have fanned more than 100 times, if injuries had not limited him to 518 plate appearance. I think this is evidence that he needs to adjust. He has the talent, but he needs to commit to making substantial changes for the first time in his career. I would say that he needs to start to evolve.

The Twins 2014 season is over. It is hot stove league time, at least as far as my favorite team is concerned. Much virtual ink has been spilled discussing perhaps as many as a dozen key players. I thought I would blog about some of these guys and perhaps start a conversation. I will start with 2014 3rd Baseman Trevor Plouffe. Plouffe went into 2014 considered the "luckiest man alive" because top prospect and Plouffe's eventual successor Miguel Sano got injured early in Spring Training and was ruled out for the bulk of the season (actually the entire season). Plouffe came to camp looking strong and had a decent spring. He started out the regular season strongly as well. Trevor hit .307 in the month of April with a robust .892 OPS. Plouffe had his ups and downs during the season and hit the disabled list in mid-June. He played almost every day until he broke his forearm during the last home game of the season. He finished with a .258 batting average and .751 OPS setting personal bests for almost all offensive stats except home runs. Plouffe also had a positive defensive rating for the first time. One word summarized Plouffe's season--improved--every facet of his game seemed to pick up a notch. He walked slightly more, struck out slightly less, hit better with runners on base and set a team record for doubles by a third baseman. As noted earlier, Trevor made large strides in playing third base. He seemed more focused, better positioned, and seems to have mastered the barehanded pickup and throw. Plouffe has a reputation as a lefty masher and indeed he's always hit left handers better then righties, but this year he improved markedly against right handed pitching, recording an OPS of .738 against same-handed hurlers. Off the score sheet, there seems to be improved focus, a better approach when hitting and certainly more maturity in dealing with the ups and downs of a long major league season playing for a 70 win team. He seems to be one of the leaders of the team, quite a change from when he was first promoted in 2010. Plouffe's future remains cloudy despite his very good season. Sano should be back next year hitting home runs in the upper minors. He most likely will get recalled sometime during the season and would figure to displace Plouffe. I have always thought that Plouffe could move to another position and one outfield slot seems to be open. However, his strong season and relatively low salary (he'll be in his second year of arbitration eligibility) would seem to make Plouffe desirable to some teams. I think Trevor stays with the Twins this offseason. Sano remains a prospect and perhaps not a sure thing. Plouffe's RH bat is pretty valuable. If Sano does move up pretty early, it is quite possible that he will have to change positions. I think he could be a capable corner outfielder, although he probably would be pretty rough at first. My sense is that Plouffe is not done improving and that the best is yet to come for him. However, there is a distinct possibility that Trevor's best might come in another uniform.

How has Mauer "evolved"? Honestly, I think he is a very similar hitter to when he arrived in the big leagues over 10 years ago. He's always taken a lot of pitches, hit the ball the opposite way, even inside-outing inside pitches. My complaint is that he hasn't changed as the situation changes. He won't swing at a 3-1 pitch that is just off the plate even if the bases are loaded and the pitcher is obviously losing it or Chris Herrmann is in the game hitting behind him. He hasn't adjusted to the opponents' positioning on him. He has been very good at what he does, but I do think it is time for him to adjust.

Mauer had a disappointing season. For as long as the Twins have been bad, he has been the player flogged by the rabid fans, because of his salary mostly. I do think that Gardy coddled Mauer a bit and that Joe accepted it too easily. When he was a catcher, the team was at its best when he caught. Now that he is a first baseman, the clube will be at its best when he plays first. I'm fine with giving him an occasional game off, but the man does have to get himself ready to play a whole season and increase and maintain his strength.

Here's a list of Twins pitchers who shared a positive stat--Jared Burton, Kyle Gibson, Brian Duensing, and Lester Oliveros. What "positive stat" do they share? Answer at the end of this posting. Bold numbers--The Twins had only four position players qualify for the batting championship and any other percentage lead: Suzuki, Mauer, Plouffe, and Dozier. Only two pitchers qualified for the ERA championship: Hughes and Gibson. Runs scored: The Twins finished fifth in the AL and seventh overall in runs scored. Dozier scored 112 runs in 156 games and Santana scored 70 in 101. Home Run Differential: At one point in mid-season the Twins had a positive home run differential. They finished minus 19. Strikeout Differential: The Twins struck out 1329 times, but only struck out 1031 opposition hitters. The -298 K differential is easily the worst in the major leagues. No weak spots: As was posted elsewhere, the Twins preferred lineup at the end of the season had all nine players with an OPS+ equal to or greater than 100. Suzuki, Mauer, Dozier, Plouffe, Escobar, Schafer, Santana, Arcia and Vargas. While it isn't a powerhouse starting lineup, it doesn't have any black holes. OK, the answer to the riddle is more innings pitched than hits. Notably, Hughes, All-Star Glen Perkins and primary setup guy Casey Fien all yielded more hits than innings pitched.

I'll make one comment on this "tempest in a teapot". Big deal! Ricky misses winning baseball. I hope he would. I'm sure he's disappointed in his performance and in the team. He tweeted something rash, much like how excited he was when he signed with the Twins. No one would care much if he finished 12-6 instead of 6-12. I hope a year from now he tweets something rash and no one cares because he won 15 games for the Twins.

IMHO, it isn't out of the realm for the Twins to contend next year. Much like Baltimore this year and Boston last year, everything needs to go right. The Twins have probably less margin for error than the aforementioned clubs, but I am of the opinion that 75-80% of pitchers are unpredictable. Guys who look like studs one year (Masterson, Ubaldo) are duds the next. Somebody like Scott Kazmir rises from the dead and puts together two straight outstanding seasons. Beyond the King Felixes and until this year Verlanders, there aren't many guys you can write ACE by the name in ink. The Twins, to contend next year, would need a repeat by Hughes, a huge bounceback by Nolasco, and continued improvement by Gibson. None of those things is a sure thing, but if it happened, then the starting pitching isn't bad at all. The offense was pretty good, although I would love to see more consistency (less zeroes and double digits runs and more 4-6 run games). Their most compelling position player need is an OF who is a good fielder and an okay hitter.

I wouldn't go that far, but at his age he certainly could grow some more. 2014 was an outstanding year for Esco, he was second among AL SSs in OPS, had positive fielding numbers, and still managed to fill in at two other positions. I am in the camp that writes his name in as the regular SS to start 2015.

Not many managers participate in the news conference announcing that they've been fired. There is an upside to the loyalty of the organization. The other side of that has been beaten to death at TD and I believe most of that as well. I'll miss Gardy. Like most ex-presidents, we'll realize he wasn't as clueless as he seemed to be when he was in charge. Replacements: I think the two in-house guys, Steinbach and Molitor, have spent enough time outside the organization that the are not Twins Guys through and through, as a promotion of someone like Ulger or Ray Smith would be. I am fine with going outside the organization, though. It is time. Either the manager or one or two of his staff need to be better able to reach the growing Hispanic portion of this club.

Out of position--Santana is the only one that played substantially "out of position" and according to BBRef, he was slightly below average. Parmelee started one game in center field, Herrmann is an outfielder who can catch, and Escobar played two games in the OF (1 start IIRC). You may want to include Nuñez as an OF, but he did play quite a bit of OF for the Yankees.

I certainly don't think Hicks proved anything in September. He did look better, yes, but he didn't drive the ball. His OPS in September was only .648. He has to get some extra base hits.

Despite almost the exact same BA, Dozier's OBP went up substanially this year. He walked almost 90 times and was hit by pitches seven or eight times. The strikeouts are high, but he did have close to 700 PAs, so that percentage is lower than it might appear.

I'll echo those who had no animosity and wished Gardy well. He is a good baseball guy and did a good job. However, it was more than time for a change. I hope the new manager brings in some guys from outside and some guys who have worked for the club in the minors. Those in Gardy' real or imagined doghouse will get a new chance to shine.

Another nit to pick with the original article is four consecutive rebuilding years. I was thinking playoffs in the spring of 2011, as were most of us. Everyone got hurt, those that didn't get injured didn't perform and the season was a spectacular failure, but not a rebuilding year.

How did Zuke get up to 25%? At one point he had only thrown out two of something like 40 base stealers. Yes, Pinto had problems throwing, but they don't have much to do with his arm strength. Footwork and accuracy were the problems and when discussing catcher throw outs, we always need to remember that there is no chance unless the pitcher does a reasonable job of holding the runner and getting the pitch to the plate quickly.

I don't think it is the only reason at all. I think the club, going forward, needs to look at defense as a higher priority in who plays and who they acquire. The number I saw most recently was that the Twins were -57 runs in outfield defense, roughly a third of the 180 run difference between the Orioles and Twins. Pitching, of course, is the primary component and the Twins outfield defense was further exposed by the low strikeout, high flyball pitching staff.

The Twins should emulate KC in a couple ways. 1) Preventing runs--the Royals have a number of Gold Glove defenders, including their catcher, first baseman and left fielder. They have developed a good and deep pitching staff. 2) Hang on to power arms. Don't give up on great arms, many can be developed into outstanding bullpen arms.

Fryer started one (1) game in the month of September. That was the second game of a doubleheader in which Pinto DHed IIRC. To the OP: Spell the player's name correctly please fercryinoutloud!

We know who will be in the playoffs and we know the matchups. I will probably root for the underdogs. In the World Series, I will want the AL team to win.