stringer bell

While I don't doubt that Buxton will be a premium center fielder, I'm not convinced he is there now, especially after being inactive for almost a year. It seems to me that Hicks was previewed as an excellent defender, but he's not graded out as even above-average. I am hoping that Buxton can shake off the rust quickly in the AFL. I don't think there is any guarantee that Buxton will dominate in Arizona. Obviously, it would be wonderful to have a premier talent in the lineup every day.

Why left over right? Arcia has plenty of arm for right field, and Target Field has the smaller area to patrol in right. Arcia will never be speedy or have great range.

What is Danny Santana's position in 2015? Is it likely that he will move between positions?

Without going back to BB Ref, I believe several teams were able to improve by 15 games or more multiple times, meaning that historically there is better than a one in ten chance to make such an improvement. Not all large jumps are the same, this year's Angels and Marlins both improved substantially (20 and 15 games respectively) but the reasons were totally different--the Angels got relatively healthy and built a bullpen, while the Marlins have added minor league talent for some time and that talent was on display in Florida. There has to be enough talent, but I submit that the Twins have enough talent to improve 15 games. Also, I doubt the Twins would "sell their souls" to compete next year. In the hypothetical of being on the periphery of the race in July/August, I would expect the dramatic move the Twins would make would be promoting young talent, not trading for a good, but declining player.

Plouffe is a major league starting third baseman. Hicks? Needs to start the season in AAA, even if it means Jordan Schafer is the center fielder.

I fully expect to see both Sano and Buxton in he majors sometime in 2015. I think the idea of using a year of service time for them to be in over their heads would by doubly bad for the Twins front office. Secondly, I really don't see the need to push Sano because Plouffe is a capable third sacker. OTOH, if Buxton shines in the AFL and then is the best OF in the spring, I can almost see him coming north quickly, if not on Opening Day. First of all, he would offer better defense than we've seen in center and perhaps move a good defender to left, improving the defense there. Secondly, even if he struggles, his great speed might keep him out of batting slumps. I'm sure the front office really would like to get 6.1 to 6.9 years out of both BB and MS, so I really doubt they will break camp with the club.

I don't know if it was his last error, but the one I remember clearly was Dozier ranging a long way to his left and trying to start a double play. There was a runner on third (tying or lead run) and he really needed to take the safe out, but made a bad throw to second. If the team was two runs ahead, it would be a no-brainer to throw to first.

To some degree, I feel the same about Molitor and Steinbach. Molitor has been on the bench with the Twins for only this past year, while Steombach has been with the club for two. They closed their careers with the Twins, but spent the majority of their time with other teams.

Buck Showalter is not afraid to challenge convention. He let Andrew Miller go 1.2 innings and face a bunch of RH hitters, then intentionally walked the winning run, of course followed by a GDP to win the game. That is confidence in your players. Congratulations to the Orioles, they are in the ALCS, probably against another team rolling sevens, the KC Royals.

Joe Mauer is a former MVP and a three-time batting champion. As a catcher, he has won five Silver Sluggers and three Gold Gloves. These are Hall of Fame credentials for a 31-year-old. Last year, Mauer was shut down after suffering a concussion. The symptoms were present until well into the offseason. Mauer and his advisors decided it was time to give up catching. With the exit of Justin Morneau, a move to first base was an easy call. I was among those that thought that Mauer would be able to play more games and provide more power as long as he abandoned catching. For the 2014 season, I was wrong. Mauer had a career-low .277 batting average and managed only 518 plate appearances. Mauer's OPS and OPS+ approached career lows, as well, and he managed only 4 homers, about one homer per 130 plate appearances. In addition, Joe continued a disturbing trend of increasing strikeouts. He fanned 96 times, about 18.5% of the time, compared to maxing out at less than 12 percent his first eight years in the league. His strikeout percentage has increased dramatically each of his last three seasons. Mauer suffered injuries, missing games with back spasms and an elbow injury and getting disabled with an oblique injury that reportedly bothered him for most of the rest of the season. It has also been reported that Mauer was rusty coming in to the spring because he didn't have his normal workout regimen due to the concussion. Combined with the adjustment of switching fulltime to first base, Mauer had an uncomfortable first half of the season. At the All-Star break, he was hitting .271 with a .695 OPS. Joe picked up the pace after the All-Star break. His OBP after the break was .397 and his OPS after the break was .805. Mauer had pretty dramatic platoon splits. Against left handers, he managed only four extra base hits and had an OPS of .654 (.776 against right handers). No one can dispute that Mauer's numbers were far below career norms. The question is whether he is going hard in decline mode or whether he can recapture his Hall of Fame worthy form from his first ten years in the majors. No one really knows and no one knows the extent of the injuries, including the concussion he suffered in 2013. My speculation is that Mauer has long been a premier player using his somewhat unique approach. I think that he now needs to adjust that approach. He needs to be more aggressive early in the count and find pitches to drive. He also needs to be stronger, so that some of his 360 foot fly balls turn into 380 foot home runs. Defensively, Mauer looked uncomfortable at first at the beginning of the year. By playing 100 games at first, he got more comfortable and became a pretty good defensive first baseman. All of that matters little if he can't come back and again be a top hitter.

MLB Trade Rumors report that bench coach (and former Bucs manager) John Russell will likely be interviewed when the O's are done playing.

I read somewhere the velocity drop was attributed to being unable to push off because of a bad knee. Don't remember where I read it, or if I totally believe it. Masterson is much like Hughes in that he's been pretty good and very bad alternately. Depending on his price, I would certainly take a look.

I won't quote your whole post Thrylos, but most of the guys you listed were bit players. Defense has to be addressed in the outfield. If the Twins had a league-average outfield (subtract 57 runs), their run differential is down to 5. Barring injury, we are going to see Arcia playing right field, no matter who the manager is. With work, Arcia can move himself out of the "butcher or dreadful" range and move towards adequate or perhaps average. If the other spots are manned by okay to good fielders, most of those 57 runs can be saved.

For a minute I thought I was reading my own post! Yes, find a nice player or two at a reasonable price. Certainly, have a backup plan for the bottom of the rotation. Yes, the #3-5 spots have killed the team and weakened the bullpen, to boot.

I agree with the sentiment of "let the kids play", but we Twins fans have seen enough losing. There needs to be a Plan B if May and Meyer are not ready. I guess, as it stands now, that Plan B is Pelfrey and Milone. I would hope there is someone else added. To reply to your first comment last, I suppose we need to pencil in some regression for Hughes, but some progression for Nolasco. Will it be a wash? The combined numbers for Hughes and Nolasco were 22 wins and 22 losses, 368.2 innings, 424 hits, 54 walks, 301 strikeouts, 4.3 WAR, and 4.32 ERA. Those numbers divided by two would be a bit worse than I would project, but in the ballpark. A 4.32 ERA would have ranked 32nd out of 40 qualifiers.

What "decline phase veterans"? If the Twins make no moves at all, the over 30s would be Suzuki and Mauer with Nolasco in the starting rotation. Most here are begging for the Twins to go for a top-shelf starter and a decent plus defense outfielder. Two top five prospects are on the horizon in 2015 plus a number of lesser prospects who'll probably see Target Field at some point. The three position player rookies who made their debuts were not in the top of the prospect list, two did well, one only had a cup of coffee, but acquitted himself well. I am sure that fandom wouldn't be happy with another Pelfry or Correia-type acquisition.

I didn't include some split information on Dozier. His strong last week made his post-All Star numbers look pretty good after many had noted how he tailed off in the second part of the season. Dozier's post All-Star OPS ended up at .739 (pre All-Star .776) and he actually improved his OBP (.352 post All-Star break). Where Dozier slowed down was his power-speed numbers (five homers and five steals after the break). In addition, Brian did a good job evening out his platoon splits in 2014. His OPS vs. LH pitching was .804, while vs. RH pitching it was a still-solid .743.

In my book, Brian Dozier was the Twins best position player in 2013. He had a better year in 2014 and again I think he was the best everyday player on the team. Dozier is a study in contrasts--he isn't a big guy, but has led the team in home runs the last two years. He is a converted shortstop who has become totally comfortable as a second baseman. Most guys his size are told to "use the whole field", but he is perhaps the most pronounced pull hitter on the team, certainly among the right handed hitters. Dozier had an up and down season. He started slowly, lifted his average through June and then tailed off. Dozier hit a bunch of homers early and continued hitting an occasional long ball until the All-Star break. The power tailed off from there and he was stuck on 20 homers for a long time. He finished with 23 long balls and 21 steals, one of only a handful of Twins all time to reach 20 in both categories. One improvement Brian made throughout the season was his ability to take a free pass. He had 89 walks (3rd in the AL) and was hit by nine pitches giving him 98 walks to first base. Despite having nearly the same batting average, he increased his OBP by 33 points to .345. Dozier scored 112 runs (2nd in the AL), the most by a Twin in this century. He drove in 71 runs despite hitting first or second almost exclusively. Dozier's defense was highly appreciated by TD regulars in 2013 and there was a carryover into 2014. He did make more than his share of web gems, but he committed too many errors (15). Dozier is a better than average defensive second baseman, but he needs to fight the urge to try to make the spectacular play sometimes. While their personalities are polar opposites, Dozier reminds me of another Twins second sacker, Chuck Knoblauch. Each year Knoblauch added another facet to his game. Dozier added selectivity this year and I expect next year he'll be a better situational hitter or better bunter or perhaps win a Gold Glove. I think he has the desire to win and excel and the Twins need more of that. Dozier has solidified his position with the Twins. If he doesn't improve at all, he still is a better than average player who can win a game with his bat, his glove and his legs on the bases. His durability, power, and defense and the fact that he'll be under team control for four more years make him desirable to other teams, but I believe he has great value for a Twins team that may be on it's way up. I expect Dozier to have another solid year in 2015 and be a major contributor when the Twins again are contenders.

Barry Larkin! HOF shortstop. Don't think Plouffe is up for that. Sorry, Thry, couldn't resist. On the larger point of Sano, without the injury I suppose he would already be up and perhaps hitting better than Vargas. A years worth of rust will have to be scraped off, so I expect it will be midseason until he is ready.

The Twins won 70 games in 2014 and were out of contention by late July. They did improve their run differential and underperformed their Pythagorean projection by five games. An improvement of 15 games would give them relevance if not contention. This year, an 85 game winner (Cleveland) was not eliminated until the final weekend. The New York Yankees won 84 games with a -31 run differential "only" 31 runs better than the Twins. Trying to figure out how to improve by 15 games isn't easy. In the Twins' case, I think most of the improvement has to come from allowing fewer runs, encompassing both defense and pitching. From a wins standpoint, the bottom half of the rotation should be a source for most of the fifteen wins required for contention. The Twins got precisely 17 wins from starting pitchers not named Gibson and Hughes. 32 wins from the #3-5 starters added to the same number of bullpen and #1-2 win yields 85 victories. The 2010 squad got 42 from the likes of Nick Blackburn, Brian Duensing, Kevin Slowey, and Scott Baker. Another way to look at this is to look at the matchups. I think it is fair to say that looking at the 14 other AL teams, the Twins dominated no one, with the possible exception of the Mariners (5-2). One additional win per team plus one interleague win would equal 15. There is room to improve both inside and outside of the division, especially against the California teams. From a runs point of view, again, improvement in the bottom of the rotation is essential. Starters not named Gibson and Hughes yielded 343 earned runs 524.1 innings. A 4.50 ERA from the bottom three would yield 81 less earned runs allowed which probably equates to 90 less total runs permitted. With no improvement in the offense, the top two starting pitchers and the bullpen, the Twins would be in a positive run differential by making the improvement noted. Finally, there is defense. The Twins were rated as one of the worst defensive teams in baseball. Catching was a net minus, the infield adequate and the outfield somewhere between subpar and dreadful. I think continuity would help greatly, but also bringing in athletic defenders and playing guys in their proper positions will help. If the Twins bring in an outfielder from outside the organization, he has to be a good defender. I thought that improving 15 games in one season was next to impossible. Looking at BB Ref, in the last 10 years 24 of the 30 teams have had a fifteen game improvement in one year. A couple more have 14 game improvements and the Twins maximum improvement in one years is 13 games. It can be done.

The Twins 2014 season is over. It is hot stove league time, at least as far as my favorite team is concerned. Much virtual ink has been spilled discussing perhaps as many as a dozen key players. I thought I would blog about some of these guys and perhaps start a conversation. I will start with 2014 third baseman Trevor Plouffe. Plouffe went into 2014 considered the "luckiest man alive" because top prospect and his eventual successor Miguel Sano was injured early in spring training and was out for the entire season. Plouffe came to camp looking strong and had a decent spring. He started out the regular season strongly as well. Trevor hit .307 in April with a robust .892 OPS. Plouffe had his ups and downs during the season and hit the disabled list in mid-June. From then on, he played almost every day until he broke his forearm during the last home game of the season. He finished with a .258 batting average and .751 OPS setting personal bests for almost all offensive stats except home runs. Plouffe also had a positive defensive rating for the first time. One word summarized Plouffe's season--improved--every facet of his game seemed to pick up a notch. He walked slightly more, struck out slightly less, hit better with runners on base and set a team record for doubles by a third baseman. As noted earlier, Trevor made large strides in playing third base. He seemed more focused, better positioned, and seems to have mastered the barehanded pickup and throw. Plouffe has a reputation as a lefty masher and indeed he's always hit left handers better then righties, but this year he improved markedly against right-handed pitching, recording an OPS of .738 against same-handed hurlers. Off the score sheet, there seems to be improved focus, a better approach when hitting and certainly more maturity in dealing with the ups and downs of a long major league season playing for a 70 win team. He seems to be one of the leaders of the team, quite a change from when he was first promoted in 2010. Plouffe's future remains cloudy despite his very good season. Sano should be healthy next year, hitting home runs in the upper minors. He most likely will get recalled sometime during the season and figures to displace Plouffe. I have always thought that Plouffe could move to another position and one outfield slot seems to be open. However, his strong season and relatively low salary--he'll be in his second year of arbitration eligibility-- would seem to make Plouffe desirable to some teams. I think Trevor stays with the Twins this offseason. Sano remains a prospect and perhaps not a sure thing. Plouffe's RH bat is pretty valuable. If Sano does move up early, it is quite possible Plouffe will have to change positions. I think he could be a capable corner outfielder, although he probably would be pretty rough at first. My sense is that Plouffe is not done improving and that the best is yet to come from him. However, depending on Sano's role, there is a possibility that Trevor's best might come in another uniform. View full article

I'm trying to stitch together these postseason looks at players (I'll scrap "post mortem") between long days at work and other activities. I had intended to mention Arcia's visibility in the dugout and his obvious enthusiasm, but it didn't make it into the blog entry. Also, my entry looks pretty pessimistic, but I didn't mean it that way. As far as comps, I remember more than one mentioning Bobby Abreu as well as Ordoñez.

Oswaldo Arcia finished 2014 playing in 103 games, mostly due to a wrist injury suffered early in the season. His statistics are similar to thos of his rookie season in 2013. This year, Arcia pounded 20 homers, but struck out 127 times in just 410 plate appearances. Arcia also hit .231 with a .300 OBP. The power is undeniable, but the combination of the large number of no-chance at-bats and below average defense has made Arcia a less than productive player. Arcia has been in the Twins' system for seven years. In his minor league career, Oswaldo had an OBP of .376 and a batting average of .314. His top home run season was 17 in 124 games, but home run power seems to be his primary asset as a major leaguer. I submit that his batting percentage and OBP have been disappointments. He seems to be very fond of hitting long home runs at the expense of being a total hitter. Much has been made of a mechanical flaw but the problem is exacerbated by trying to hit the ball 500 feet. Oswaldo is going to hit home runs if he gets at-bats. He needs to be a more well-rounded hitter to get regular at-bats, not Adam Dunn minus the walks. Arcia hit below the Mendoza line against left-handed pitching, with a .574 OPS. The Twins used 2014 as a training/learning experience for him, despite his paltry numbers. If he continues to struggle against southpaws, it wouldn't surprise me that the new manager will limit his at-bats against lefties. This year Arcia played exclusively in right field. He made more good plays than last year and displayed a strong arm. That is the good news. He continued to make some bad misplays and missed cutoff men and threw to the wrong base far too often. I continue to see enough for Arcia to be an average or better defender, but he has to focus and work on his defense as hard as he works on his swing. Arcia has shown enough to have earned a lot of rope before he would be benched, platooned or demoted. He needs to make progress both at the plate and in the field to guarantee continued regular playing time in 2015 and beyond. I think he needs to have a much better two-strike plan. He is still only 23. Barring injury, Oswaldo Arcia will start 2015 as the Twins regular right fielder and will still be 23 years old. He is still a very raw player, often doing amazing and stupefying things in the same game. He has shown the ability to be an all-star hitter in the middle of a contending lineup and he can look like an 18-year-old in he Rookie League. 2015 should be a big season for Arcia. If he progresses, he'll probably be a cornerstone of a fast-improving franchise. If he stagnates, Twins fans will move on to look for someone else to be their power-hitting right fielder-- Adam Brett Walker anyone? View full article