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stringer bell

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Everything posted by stringer bell

  1. stringer bell
    I was pondering the "what will it take" thread and I have some thoughts about the American League races and what the Twins need to do to win the second Wild Card. First of all, I think 85 wins will be enough to garner a trip to Toronto or New York. The Twins would need to go 22-16 to get there. I think they might get a break by playing their last series against the Royals, who probably will have clinched everything (division and home field) long before they head to Minnesota. I am predicting also that Houston will fade, they have the fewest road wins in the AL and they have the most road games to play of the contenders. Houston's club has not been in a pennant race and they are heavily a young team. The Twins get Houston for six games in the last six weeks. The Twins will face a lot of aces and near aces. For them to succeed, they need to win quite a few games against elite pitchers. Most likely they will see Kuechel and Kazmir, Sale, Kluber and more. I think they have to win their share of those games. I think they need to play well at home and their best of the season on the road. The biggest thing is that the starting rotation needs to right the ship. We haven't seen many quality starts of late and the bullpen has been taxed. It is nice that they had a day off and that they can add an arm or two in a week. Texas is playing well right now and has a very favorable schedule. I think they overtake the Astros, so the Twins would then have to get by Houston. The good thing there is that they have all six of their games with Houston remaining.
  2. stringer bell
    Whose the Richardson guy? No, the Twins aren't going to bench or platoon their three most experienced hitters when they have a legit shot at the wild card.
  3. stringer bell
    September 1 or after the SL playoffs? To me, that is the only question. If the Twins have Hicks, Buxton, Rosario, and Hunter, I don't know that there would be many at-bats for Max. I would like to see him get some time with the big club. After his dominant season in AA, it should be his reward. Keep Berrios in AAA. He should be up in mid-April of '16.
  4. stringer bell
    Dozier and Sano for sure. I don't know about the pitchers.
  5. stringer bell
    If you buy what Teflon is selling, perhaps Mauer might cut his career short voluntarily. Besides the concussions, Mauer has had knee issues and a back issue. While he's been able to play, perhaps one or both of the injuries is effecting his game. If either of those injuries is chronic, perhaps that would push Joe toward early retirement. I thought Mauer would be a better, more powerful, hitter moving away from behind the dish, but it just hasn't happened. If it isn't injury(and maybe even if it is), it might be that we'll not see batthing champ Joe Mauer again. Regarding Mauer's defense. He's really sure-handed and covers a lot of ground side-to-side. He has seemed to hesitate before making throws and sometimestruggled whether to go unassisted or flip the ball to the pitcher (better at that this year). In sum, he's pretty good, but not instinctive.
  6. stringer bell
    I think 85 gets it done, with perhaps two teams reaching that number and a play-in game. Given their schedule, the Twins are the most likely to fade (see the "Woo Hoo" thread), but they also have the chance to beat almost all of the teams in the hunt with them. I think Toronto and New York are foregone conclusions, but I am not ready to crown the Astros yet. They have a lousy road record and no history in a pennant race and they have a lot of road games remaining. I might add that my suspicion of the 'stros might be because I'm jealous of their rebuilding success.
  7. stringer bell
    I had forgotten that I chose Duffey as one of my prospects. I knew there was a guy.....anyway, he's done very well his last two starts for the Twins. He may have graduated from the minors.
  8. stringer bell
    Agree with many points. I doubt that Kepler gets a look until the Southern playoffs are over. Vargas should be back soon. Dozier does need more time off. Polanco is not a true shortstop any more than Nunez. Berrios won't be up until sometime in 2016. The rotation needs to pick it up, the only guy who has a quality start lately.
  9. stringer bell
    Now at 10.7% per the same source. The weekend did increase the playoff probability FWIW.
  10. stringer bell
    Great job, Chi-Town! I have experienced the same "look away, can't look away" since the first game in New York. I'm probably too excited by the pitching from Fien, May, and Jepsen. If we could also get back pre-All Star Perkins and May Boyer, the bullpen wouldn't be too bad.
  11. stringer bell
    Remaining schedule has to figure in here. The site says that they simulate thousands of games. Here's an excerpt from the explanation: Probabilities are based on thousands of Monte Carlo simulations of the remaining season schedule incorporating each team's year-to-date run differential, current roster composition, playing time projections and remaining schedule.
  12. stringer bell
    Hey! My son works for Buzzfeed and he's not 20. However, winging sounds about right, as far as their content.
  13. stringer bell
    The updated Postseason Probability is now all the way to 7.6%! The Twins even passed the Tigers in this category, with the Tigers losing and the Twins winning at Baltimore. I'm guessing that with less than a quarter of the season remaining, each day's wins and losses change the percentage pretty dramatically (relatively speaking). Other percentages of note: KC-100%, New York and Toronto-95%, Houston-93%, Angels 27%, Texas 30%, Tampa 25%, Baltimore 17%. This info is available at mlb.com provided by Baseball Prospectus.
  14. stringer bell
    OK, the Twins have three veterans locked up for at least two more years, plus Milone (under 30, so not a veteran?) and Gibson under team control for those same two years. Then there is Duffey and May, plus Berrios in waiting. Pat Dean has put up really good AAA numbers this year and Rogers was an IL All-Star (perhaps a 'pen piece?). Add Meyer as something and that is plenty of arms. What is missing is top of the rotation talent. Hughes was solid (low #1 or high #2) last year and Gibson's first half was very good. If May could be as good or better than '14 Hughes or '15 pre-All Star Gibson, yeah, put him in the rotation. If not, maybe he transitions into a shutdown late-inning guy. Obviously, more than five starters are necessary. It would be great to have the replacements all working in Rochester with the flexibility to option people back and forth depending on injuries and effectiveness. There aren't many bullpen sure things. If May is that, it might be in the team's interest to keep him in the bullpen. I can't get too excited about FIP and xFIP if May rated second on the staff to Nolasco.
  15. stringer bell
    Walker has slumped, but seems to be picking it up in the last week or so. His counting numbers are terrific, but the BA and OBP have dropped. Interestingly, Kepler has performed better since Sano and Buxton exited (and Polanco temporarily).
  16. stringer bell
    Torii hasn't been that bad in the outfield and he is a better offensive player than Robinson. I'm sure it is a judgement call in a close game--does the slight upgrade of Robinson for Hunter on defense make it worth taking out a guy who might be hitting if the game is tied? If memory serves, Molitor thought it was worth it to replace Escobar or Arcia, not so much for Hunter.
  17. stringer bell
    I believe all teams are supposed to submit a 25-man postseason roster. The last four years Terry Ryan could have put anyone on the roster because they were out of contention. This year there is a small chance that the Twins will be competing for a championship. I am not sure of the exact specifications, but I know that disabled players can be replaced by guys in the organization not on the 25-man on August 31. They currently have Hicks, Pressly, Hughes, and Boyer on the disabled list. Santana, of course, is prohibited from postseason play. Here is my 25 that the Twins would take to New York or Toronto for the first wild card game: Pitchers (12): Hughes, Gibson, Milone, Duffey, Pelfrey, O'Rourke, Cotts, Duensing, Perkins, Fien, May, Jepsen Catchers (2): Suzuki, Herrmann Infielders (7): Plouffe, Escobar, Dozier, Mauer, Vargas, Nuñez, Sano Outfielders (5): Hunter, Buxton, Rosario, Hicks
  18. stringer bell
    The caught stealing percentage for a catcher just isn't that important in today's game. I know Suzuki doesn't throw even average, but if he has improved as a pitch framer and calls a great game, that is good enough (oh, yeah, he's got to block low pitches too). My own feeling is that he is midrange in the functions I mentioned and still way below average throwing.
  19. stringer bell
    I really don't agree. First of all, Berrios is only 21. I do believe he's the Twins best pitching prospect, at least in the top two levels, but I don't know how he would fare in the majors. Further, I believe the Twins will want to protect him and not use him for too many innings. He's never really pitched out of the bullpen, so that may have been an issue. Finally, there are service time and 40-man issues. Hindsight is 20-20, but it may be that they promoted the most ready guy (Duffey) and adding two to the 40-man was thought to be too many. The May thing didn't work out. I'm guessing the Twins would have kept May in the rotation if Duffey got knocked around, but since he did well his second (and now third) start, they kept May as a bullpen option.
  20. stringer bell
    Two back of the Angels with four at TF in September. They are tied with Tampa, 1.5 behind Baltimore and Texas. That is a lot of teams to wade through, but doable.
  21. stringer bell
    The Twins have 40 games remaining and currently sit two behind the Angels, who hold the second wild card at this point. The Twins have games remaining with the Rays, the Orioles and the Angels so they could gain ground by winning head to head against teams that are in competition for the wild card. Here's the math: 25-15. .625 baseball, which I think would net the team a wild card. 24-16. .600 baseball, I think they make postseason with 85 wins, or at least have a play-in to the play-in game. 21-19. Would give the Twins a winning record, but they would be watching the playoffs. 20-20. .500 on the nose, still a success given the expectations. 15-19 wins. Improvement, no 90 loss season, but still a losing record. The team has 21 road games and 19 home games. They play 25 of their remaining games against the Central, with other games against Baltimore (2), Houston (6), Tampa (3) and the Angels (4). I'm saying they have a little spurt here and end up with 82 wins, but end up watching the playoffs. I am probably too optimistic after watching May and Jepsen close yesterday's game. If May could have been the 8th inning guy for a month, I think they might have won a couple more games.
  22. stringer bell
    It wouldn't so much be money saved as team control. If Berrios were recalled now, he's take a 40-man spot, and would have approximately 40 days of big league service. He would be eligible for arb after three full years (after 2018) and a free agent after 2021. If he stays in the minors this year and until April 20-25, he would be a Super 2 and eligible for arb at the same time, but the Twins would get one more year of control (his age 28 year).
  23. stringer bell
    148+ innings so far this year for JO. A 20% increase over 2014 would be about three more starts. I'm guessing Berrios gets those three starts for the Red Wings and is done for the year. He'll have thrown enough innings and the Twins won't have used a 40-man spot for him. I think his big league debut will be about April 20, 2016.
  24. stringer bell
    Anyone noticing that Suzuki has picked it up a notch? He's gotten quite a few key knocks in the last few weeks and the BA has creeped back to .241. I'm in favor of his workload being reduced by 20-30% (400 PAs) and it will take a better alternate than Herrmann or Fryer. Let's hope TR can land someone.
  25. stringer bell
    They used their quota of luck tonight, bloopers, bleeders, close pitches, Schoop kicking the ball, the ball hitting Plouffe on the back.
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