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stringer bell

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Everything posted by stringer bell

  1. stringer bell
    I am puzzled by Kepler's inability to hit for a higher average. As noted, he has a great natural swing, decent eye at the plate, strikes out relatively little and has good power. I see Kepler go through slumps where he continually hits popups and grounders into the shift. Could he be looking too much to drive the ball and not enough to hit line drives to the alleys? I don't know. The other thing is hitting against left handed pitchers. He was better against them than right handers in his fine 2019 season, but this year was dreadful in a small sample. There's a lot to like about Kepler's game and even in an off season for him he posted a 108 OPS+ and (full season adjusted) 2.2 WAR. At a still-young age, I think the Twins should hang on to the reasonably priced right fielder. I also think that Kepler should work on bunting against the shift, both down the third base line and past the pitcher (especially lefties who fall off toward third base). If he can "shorten up" the second baseman and perhaps move the the third baseman and shortstop closer to "normal" position, I think he could lift his OBP and batting average quite a bit.
  2. stringer bell
    As a fourth outfielder/bench guy I think I would too. It appears that the Twins coaching staff like Cave a bit more as a center fielder and Cave has more power, but Wade gets on base and has acquitted himself nicely at first base in a few games there. The thing about Cave is that he seems to do better filling in for a week or month, but playing a random game a week, he doesn't seem to perform as well. I see Wade as better getting a start or two per week. As was mentioned above, both Cave and Wade would be better fits if they were truly center fielders or hit right handed.
  3. stringer bell
    No team that made the postseason looked worse than Houston going in. Now they outpitched the Twins and are 2/3 of the way to outslugging the A's. Do they have all-black alternate uniforms that they can wear, because they are the "bad guys" of this postseason.
  4. stringer bell
    Getting anything more than a bucket of balls for Rosario would be a coup. I get letting Gonzalez go, He was paid starter money and last year, he was a replacement player. Not a lot of guys have his utility skills and he is a switch hitter, but last season he was pretty bad with the lumber. I don't think either Kirilloff or Rooker are locks to be ready. I said it before that 21 plate appearances isn't enough to make a judgment about Rooker and his minor league credentials don't say "future star" to me. I'm much more confident that Kirilloff will be a building block than Rooker, but I'm not sure if that is in April of 2021. I have mixed feelings on Cruz. Ted Schwertzler's blog entry gives me pause. The topline numbers were just as good as last year, but especially in September, Cruz looked vulnerable. He's smart and takes advantage of mistakes, but I really fear that he is going to diminish and not gradually. If he can't be had for a one-year deal, let someone else see him decline.
  5. stringer bell
    Lindor is not a free agent. He has one more year of team control, much like Mookie Betts last year. Cleveland is likely going to trade him this offseason (at least that was the CW until 2020 become that COVID season) and I still think they will listen, but they are going to want a lot of talent in exchange for Mr. Lindor. I don't think we'd really want to give Cleveland a couple top pitching prospects plus Lewis/Kirilloff/ Larnach for Lindor, but someone would and will give them a lot for him.
  6. stringer bell
    You quoted my post, so I assume you're responding to me. I did not call for anyone to be cut, traded or replaced. I pointed out how far Polanco fell off in this shortened, stunted 2020 season. I think the numbers back up what I said (and saw) and noted that Kepler fell off less and Sanó fell off considerably, but not quite as much as Polanco. Garver fell off more than anyone, I don't think there's any question of that. I have written in other threads that it is going to be up to the Twins' brain trust to decide how much to regard the past season as an indicator for coming performance. The Twins had a lot of their lineup fall off greatly, but still won 60% of their games because they prevented runs much better in 2020, both because of improved pitching and solidified defense. Based on 2020 stats, Polanco was a below-average shortstop, Kepler was a below-average right fielder and Sanó was a below-average first baseman. They're all signed to long-term deals extending beyond 2022. Should they all get a pass on 2020 and assume regular status in 2021? I don't know. Perhaps the best course of action is to be prepared in the event that last year was not a fluke and have other options. It doesn't make much sense to trade players when their value is low.
  7. stringer bell
    Yes, Polanco was that bad. His OPS fell from .841 to .658, OPS+ from 121 to 82 and WAR from 7.8 to 0. In comparison on these three measures Kepler went from .855 to .760, OPS+ fell from 123 to 108 and WAR fell from 4.1 to .8 (which would come to between 2 and 2.5 for a full season). Polanco's drop is far more severe and WAR is supposed to incorporate defense. Bringing in Sanó--OPS from .923 to .757, OPS+ from 139 to 104, WAR from 3.0 to -.2 (about -.5 for a complete season. Polanco has an injury explanation, but based on last year, he isn't even an average major league shortstop.
  8. stringer bell
    Most likely the prospects within the organization will get their chance in the coming year. 2020 was short and strange and didn't give many at-bats to the top prospects. Next year should be different. Most everyone on TD is more than willing to say goodbye to Adrianza and Gonzalez and that is especially true of Marwin since he had an eight-figure contract. I guess I agree, but given who the manager is and who his players are, utility guys are both important and will get lots of playing time. The combination of Adrianza and Gonzalez was very versatile, offered two switch hitters and gave the Twins solid defense wherever they were put in the field. That is much more than nothing. Neither hits well enough and both are past 30 years of age. It should be noted how rare it is to have a utility guy who not only can play multiple positions in the infield, but also is capable in the outfield. That said, one thing lacking in Ehire and Marwin is speed. The Twins have only one player who would be considered to have well above average speed and neither Adrianza or Gonzalez would even be average. I do think that replacements for the two Venezuelans should have the speed tool in their toolkit. Having versatile switch hitters would be nice, as well. I really don't like the idea of bringing up a rookie to be a bench player. They usually are accustomed to playing regularly and might not be able to adjust to playing infrequently and sporadically.
  9. stringer bell
    It's not like the current cast of characters has lost 18 straight postseason games. They can take the blame for the last five or six, which is plenty, but not all 18. I don't know what the problem is for postseason. I could see it last year with the starting staff reduced to a fading Berríos and then Odorizzi and then......Randy Dobnak. I don't think that the prospects are sure things including Rooker. I can't be convinced on 21 plate appearances that he is part of the future, although he was impressive. I am much more certain that he is not a good outfielder than he an above-average hitter. I think the quandary for the Twins front office is to decide which season is a better indicator of future performance, 2019 or 2020. The team had great seasons from Kepler, Polanco and Garver and all three were below average for their position in the shortened 2020 season. I'm not sure how confident the Twins should be in their pitching staff. The front three starters look set, which is a considerable improvement from last year, but the bullpen looks to be unsettled, especially with the struggled of Rogers in the closing role.Like the hitters I mentioned, Rogers was excellent in 2019, far from that in 2020. To address the OP, I think the team can and should reload. There isn't a huge window where the Twins will dominate the Central. I don't think there's a truly dominant club in the American League so the Twins should try to go for it.
  10. stringer bell
    That is the "good" thing about catchers. Both catchers who make the roster in the spring (if the season starts on time) will get enough of an opportunity to get playing time. With only two catchers, both guys will get the chance to demonstrate they are the better option. I'm not ready to give up on Garver because of his disappointing season, but I think he will have to demonstrate that 2020 was the fluke, not 2019. It figures that he and Jeffers will be the catchers.
  11. stringer bell
    AL Central went 0-3 in series and won one game.
  12. stringer bell
    How come, in a tie game, I feel like the Twins are down by 3 runs?
  13. stringer bell
    As I said earlier in this thread, the pitching substitutions are gray areas for me. Let me defend Baldelli/Johnson with these rationales: Maeda after 5. Kenta pitched scoreless ball for 5 innings, but threw 91 pitches and was under stress about as much as he had been all year. He would be facing the Astros for the third time through the lineup in the sixth and would be on a short leash due to the score and his pitch count. I don't think Wes/Rocco wanted to bring in May with runners on mid-inning and thought the chances were good that Maeda would get in trouble or go high on his pitch count in the sixth. Maeda had only exceeded 94 pitches once and that was when he was chasing a no-no. May for one inning--maybe they believed since May flew through the sixth, that he would be available today (Tuesday). When Duffey labored to get the third out in the seventh, they decided that he was used up and that he wouldn't be available on Tuesday, so they let him continue. Romo-I know he has struggled lately, but he has tons of playoff experience and he's effective against right handed hitters with that slider. He gave up zero hard contact, but after the error, he walked in the eventual winning run. Thielbar-he has had good success against left handed hitters. He needed to get Brantley, a tough out. Brantley didn't hit the ball hard either, but hit it in a good spot.
  14. stringer bell
    It is almost like Rocco was trying to justify having four catchers.
  15. stringer bell
    Turtle has been scouted. Yes, he doesn't strike out, but he swings at everything. There is no need to throw him a strike, make a pitcher's pitch and he should be out in a pitch or two.
  16. stringer bell
    I agree with the last three queries. Sending Maeda out for the sixth to face the lineup for the third time was questionable, but I suppose Rocco thought he would pull Maeda if someone got on base and with Maeda either at or over 100 pitches, and that he didn't want to bring in a reliever (May) with runners on in the middle of an inning. I disliked the catcher moves, why bat for Jeffers, why not save a player by keeping Garver behind the plate, and why send up Astudillo?
  17. stringer bell
    I don't like Thielbar's chances of getting Brantley.
  18. stringer bell
    So, we get to face Pressly.......that'll be fun.
  19. stringer bell
    Polanco played so well in the field, now this.
  20. stringer bell
    I think the Twins win if the Astros don't score in the 9th.
  21. stringer bell
    Gotta get this guy.
  22. stringer bell
    Two soft contact singles in a row.
  23. stringer bell
    Crap!
  24. stringer bell
    I think a lot of Romo's struggles at the end of the season were from overexposure. When the teams are playing only Central foes and Romo faces batters multiple times, he isn't as much of a mystery.
  25. stringer bell
    Taylor Rogers did a great job against the heart of the Astros order. Actually, that probably makes up for most of his struggles during the regular season.
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