stringer bell

I’d really want Kirilloff to become a fixture for the Twins, but his ability to get on the field and swing freely is far from a sure thing. Having Gurriel available to step in full-time is prudent and there should be at-bats available for him regardless.

A couple of thoughts: 1) It is not written in stone that Lopez will become a free agent after the 2024 season (he would be much more expensive). 2) Despite all of the man-games lost injury, the Twins were 11th in OPS, not dreadful.

We've heard over and over that an ace is needed to win. I also know that it would be cool to see the Twins have the better of a starting pitching matchup between 60 and 70 percent of the time. Adding another guy who is solid and a candidate to throw a high quality start each time out makes sense to me. Arraez is a good player overall and a real asset in the batter's box. The Marlins announced after the trade that they would move their second baseman to center field, opening a spot for Luis. I think he'll be fine for the Marlins and would be one of the top candidates to win a batting championship in the NL next year. The Twins' lineup still has question marks and subtracting their top percentage hitter won't help that. There's talent there that might make us forget that they traded Arraez, but that talent mostly has been stymied by injury. Imagine Buxton healthy for 90% of the season, Kirilloff and Larnach living up to the potential they've hinted at and been projected to produce.

Is someone else going to the Marlins? Two pretty good prospects plus a solid starter is a haul. I'm guessing the Twins give the Fish at least a prospect.

How about subbing an actual hitter for Celestino? Garlick for Celestino (Gordon is Buxton’s backup). Garlick can be added easily with 60-day IL assignments for Paddack and Lewis.

‘91 Twins were 44-37 on the road. The Twins road troubles last year were on both sides of the ball. Late leads given up and few comebacks. They just weren’t very good.

Let’s discuss second base. If Jorge Polanco is healthy , he’s the second baseman for 140 or more games. Again, presuming health for those involved, Farmer should be the backup given a start against left handers (Polanco has pretty pronounced splits, being better against right handed pitching). Against right handers, Arraez is the better choice to fill in if he’s available. In left field, the Twins didn’t spend $11M so that Joey Gallo can sit on the bench. Despite what Nick achieved last year, there isn’t a clear path to playing time for Gordon. I am sure there has been plenty of conversation on the acquisition of Gallo (I don’t get it either), there is redundancy in the corner outfield and there doesn’t appear to much playing time in the infield. Injuries could completely change all of that. Rocco will get everyone playing time, but I do stand by the original thought that Gordon’s appearances might be limited.

Garlick will be coming to Spring Training off the major league roster, but he probably has a decent chance to make the team since the Twins will have two or three vacancies available on the 40-man roster by Opening Day (Paddack and Lewis on the 60-day. They could also add Canterino, but then he would get service time for his TJ rehab).

Miranda can play first or DH against lefties. Polanco has much worse splits against left handed pitching. Farmer definitely should be in the lineup every single time against left handed pitching.

Kyle Farmer had a .948 OPS against left handed pitching and has a lifetime .837 OPS. That's better than anyone on the Twins last year. Farmer is a better defensive middle infielder than Gordon and is an experienced third baseman. Against left handed pitching, it would seem that Farmer is the much better option to be in the lineup in the infield, especially given Gordon's struggles versus lefties (SSS). That makes Gordon the second backup in the three infield positions, at best. There are a whole bunch of left handed hitting options in left field and right field (Gordon has played single digit innings in right) so it seems that the major utility asset is his ability to play center field. I think Austin Martin and Royce Lewis are on the horizon as RH corner and CF options. Injuries could change all of this, but despite establishing himself as a major league player last year, Nick Gordon may not get much playing time and could be expendable.

My reason for suggesting Gordon might be considered for a trade is that he isn’t a clear candidate for left field duty if one or both of Kirilloff and Larnach return to health. Left field is mostly a “bat first” position and the upside for K & L remains higher than for Gordon. The other part of this is his utility as a left handed hitter who plays second and short (pretty poorly-not as well as Farmer) and center field (acceptably) isn’t of that much use. Joey Gallo is going to play, at least to start the season and if he and Kepler are are the roster, the three outfield starters will be Kepler, Gallo and Buxton.

The Twins have not had great luck keeping their DFAs. Good to see they managed to get both Garlick and Ortega through the process.

During the first half of the disappointing 2021 season, there was speculation as to whether Nick Gordon would remain on the active roster or be subjected to the DFA process. He was nominally the second backup option for the Twins at both second base and shortstop so there was no clear path for Gordon to get playing time. With the onslaught on injuries in the outfield in '21 (remember Rob Refsnider and Kyle Garlick playing their first professional games in center) Gordon was given an opportunity to get playing time as an outfielder. Gordon eventually played in 45 games in the outfield, including 34 in center field. For someone who had never played there, he did surprisingly well. Adding the ability to play outfield including the key defensive position of center certainly added to Gordon's value going into 2022. In 2022, Gordon made the club as a utility infielder/outfielder and again got the majority of his playing time on the grass. playing in 95 games in the outfield including 62 in left field. Defensive metrics for what is still a small sample size indicate the Gordon is an acceptable outfielder and probably, with a bit more experience, could be above average in left field. Meanwhile, as a hitter Gordon has improved. In 216 plate appearances in '21, Gordon was worth -5 runs as a hitter. In 2023, in about twice as many plate appearances, he was worth +6 at the plate. Much of his improvement probably comes from experience and another positive factor in gradually increasing strength as he has mostly recovered from career-threatening intestinal problems. Gordon has shown he belongs in the major leagues and the trends are pointing north as an offensive player. Roster projections include Gordon as a utility player or perhaps the starting left fielder if Max Kepler is dealt away. I don't know if I am ready to declare Gordon a solid utility player or proclaim him as an every day outfielder. First of all, (again SSS) Gordon's metrics as an infielder are not good. At both second and short he grades out below average on range and defensive runs saved. He has played only six innings at third base and three innings in right field, so I wouldn't say he's a utility option at those positions. As a hitter, Nick is limited by rather extreme platoon splits, with only a .532 OPS versus left handers. Gordon only stole six bases (caught four times) last year so despite very good speed, his impact on the bases has been minimal. The Twins currently have a bunch of left handed hitters as candidates for the two corner outfield spots. Max Kepler and Joey Gallo are veterans and both are good defenders. For Gordon to get ample playing time as a corner outfielder, where he's been at his best defensively, he will have to displace one of Gallo or Kepler plus be better than Matt Wallner, Trevor Larnach and Alex Kirilloff. There are DH at bats available and Kepler in particular has been rumored to be on the block, Despite the improvement Nick Gordon has made and acknowledging his progress as a hitter and improved health, I think Gordon is a trade candidate, particularly since Kyle Farmer looks like the principle backup in the middle infield. I don't know how other organizations would value Gordon and whether he could get a suitable return, but despite what he has done in the last two years, Nick Gordon could well not have much of a role with the 2023 Twins.

I’d say third season in a row with a lot of injuries.

Tony Gwynn became a first ballot Hall-of-Famer when he dominated in his mid-30s (ages 34-37) by hitting .394, .368, .353 and .372, setting himself off from the rest of the NL by a substantial margin for batting average. Further, Gwynn won five Gold Gloves and stole over 300 bases in his career, indicating he was more than a singles hitter without a position. In addition, Gwynn always hit left handed pitching well, with a career OPS over .800 and a lifetime average of .325. Gwynn's career followed Carew's until his mid-30s. Rod tailed off, not winning a batting championship as an Angel and netting only 18 WAR in seven years in Anaheim. Incidentally, Carew was listed at six feet even, so there is a difference between Arraez (listed at 5-10, but probably shorter) and Sir Rodney.

The Vikings not only were outscored during the regular season, they yielded an average of more than than 20 yards more than the Vikings accumulated per game. Minnesota had a net of +2 on turnovers, but that doesn't cover how many net yards they yielded.

What would the projection be on a Duvall contract? Certainly, the Twins would be well over $150 and closer to $160 and I presume he might be looking for multiple years.

Nick pretty much nailed the downside. The upside is premium talent at wide receiver and good talent in every position group. I think the key is that a lot of the talent is at or past the “use by” date. I wish the Twins has as loyal and passionate of a fan base, but maybe that is football fans over baseball fans.

Farmer should be in the lineup versus lefties all the time. Perhaps him at third, Miranda at first or DH. I read in another thread that Farmer might also play some outfield for the Twins. If he is acceptable on the grass, the Twins might have enough right handed bats without picking someone else up.

Classic Belichick defense. Take away the best offensive weapon and dare the rest to beat you.

Three most consequential plays: 3) Jefferson throw back to Cousins on 3rd and 1. 2) Darrisaw false start on 4th and 1. 1) Cousins check down on 4th and 8.

That aged well.

I’m going to say it. Advantage MN because they have adjusted far better than NY since halftime. I don’t think NY scores another TD.

Counterpunch time?

It really is about health with Kirilloff and Larnach. Both have been injured more than not for the last year and a half. There is opportunity at DH and first base for at bats for corner outfielders. I do agree that Larnach was and could be more than capable in either right or left field. A healthy Buxton could be spelled occasionally by Gordon without the need to carry Celestino on the active roster. Specifically regarding a Kepler trade--he is expendable because he is replaceable. Gallo is probably his (near) equal defensively and a healthy Kirilloff or Larnach could be expected to equal his offensive contribution of his last two years.