stringer bell

I still can't understand the "need" for 13 pitchers. The Twins have weathered the "bullpen game" on Saturday and since gotten 8, 7+, 6 and 6 innings from their starters. They now have an off-day. In addition, the way they've been hitting, they are probably in for three or four eight inning games from the pitching staff.

And he throws harder. By itself that doesn't make much difference, but if Tonkin can manage to add a league-average slider or change, he can be effective with his fastball and another pitch. Stauffer didn't have that luxury.

There are problems with #3, #4, and #5 IMHO. Mauer has hit like a #3 hitter for probably three weeks of the first 2+ months. There is some respect for his skills, but no fear. Make a mistake to him and you allow a single. Make a mistake to a great hitter and the scoreboard changes. Plouffe is streaky and currently going poorly. He will snap out of it and maybe he already has. Since some time in May, he hasn't had much protection and that often wears on players.

The Twins didn't score many runs in Boston until they faced a knuckleballer and took advantage of leaky Boston defense. They had one good inning in two games against the Brewers. They still have a good number of runs scored and a positive run differential. They sit in first place by one game with the second-place Royals due in town Monday. In the very successful month of May, the Twins were led by the four guys who usually hit in the first four spots in the order. After a hot first half of the month, Hunter has leveled off and still carries good numbers. Mauer slumped much of the month, but managed to drive in an inordinate amount of runs by being very successful with runners on base, he is showing signs of warming up, but has a long way to reach his career norms. Plouffe is currently in a deep slump after being a consistent run producer and power threat for the first two months. Finally, Dozier remains hot, raising his average above .260 while on an extra-base hit rampage. The club needs help from someone beside those four guys. Twins Daily has had plenty of people complaining about the position players on the team. Shane Robinson, Eduardo Nuñez, Danny Santana, and Chris Herrmann all have detractors who think they shouldn't be on the 25-man roster. Of course, there remain 13 pitchers, leaving one less bench player. Oswaldo Arcia, Kennys Vargas and Josmil Pinto have all played for the Twins and are at Rochester now waiting to be recalled. The pitching staff also has suspects among their ranks, probably all in the bullpen. Brian Duensing's numbers are terrible, Tim Stauffer has failed to impress, and Aaron Thompson has regressed hard. With Michael Tonkin, AJ Achter and Lester Oliveros laboring in Rochester, it would seem to make sense to part company with the soft tossing older veterans. Since the club is in first place, perhaps the pressure isn't as great to make a move. However, they probably need to make a move or two before the current lull becomes a full-blown slump. If I were sitting in the GM's chair, I would send Danny Santana to Rochester and replace him with Vargas. Santana seems to have lost confidence and a trip to Rochester might restore that confidence. Vargas' numbers in AAA have been good (SSS) and the club desperately needs a threat (preferably LH) to hit behind Plouffe. If the bullpen is settled after the next turn of starters, perhaps they can reduce the bullpen. The obvious candidates to be let go would be Duensing and Stauffer, but it wouldn't surprise me if Aaron Thompson is optioned instead. Perhaps then it would be time for Arcia to return and try his luck in the outfield. It is less than one month from Ervin Santana getting back and pitching with the Twins. Another pitching decision would have to be made at that time. As long as they are in the hunt, development as a major leaguer takes second place to winning games. It will be interesting to see what happens with calendars turning from spring to fall.

I really think the Twins should go outside the organization for a big-time catcher. If they could pry Lucroy away from the Brewers for a package that doesn't contain a Top 5 prospect, I'd do it.

If Escobar must play, then start him at short and send Santana to Rochester. I think EE is a satisfactory every day shortstop who will hit better in one position.

With the Twins getting attention and solid production from Plouffe and Dozier, I think if selections were made today that either or both of Plouffe and Dozier would be All-Stars. Plouffe is third in both OPS and WAR behind Donaldson and Moustakas. Given the dearth of great candidates in the outfield and shortstop, it is entirely possible that three third basemen are named. Dozier is second in OPS, fourth in WAR (Kipnis is easily the best offensive second baseman so far). Dozier leads all second sackers in runs and homers. Both Dozier and Plouffe are good defenders, to boot. In another six weeks, if their performance continues, I think one or both would be in Cincinnati.

If the Twins were to go to 6 starters, I think one of the guys in fact really goes to the bullpen as a long man/starter in waiting. My current vote would be for Milone to be recalled and May to move to the long man in the bullpen. It is doubtful that six guys would stay both healthy and effective for a full five weeks until Ervin Santana is ready to go.

I didn't think Pelfrey looked that sharp early on Tuesday. He wasn't missing many bats and the Sox hit some balls solidly. As the game wore on, his secondary pitches got a bit sharper and then, with his pitch count up, he breezed through the sixth and seventh. What does all of that say about his pitching this year? Well, I think he's got enough stuff to face even the most powerful lineups, but the command has to be there. He can't throw his fastball middle-middle and expect weak contact. The increased use of the split-finger makes all his pitches more effective. He is going to get a lot of balls hit on the ground and turning them into the maximum number of outs is important. Check Pelfrey's numbers next to Gibson's. They are very similar.

Perkins is the one with the inside track. Dozier is having a similar season to last year at this point, but there are a half dozen elite 2B in the AL. Plouffe is also having a fine year and the position isn't as deep. I would put Hunter in contention because so few OFs are having outstanding years. Other than Perkins, I don't think any pitcher has all-around good enough numbers (wins, strikeouts, ERA) to be considered.

After two straight convincing wins, the Twins stand at 26-18, eight games over .500 for the first time since 2010. It is early, but so far the record says "contention". The record says that the Twins have improved, but a case can be made that the whole thing is "smoke and mirrors". Statistics tell a conflicting story, but the deeper you dig, the more amazing it is that the Twins are among the top teams in the league. The way you count wins and losses in this game is by the number of runs scored. The Twins are doing quite well by this simplest statistic. They have scored 204 runs and allowed 186, that is a run differential of +18, fourth best in the AL, behind Kansas City, Houston and (surprise!) Toronto. Breaking it down a bit further, the Twins score the third-most runs per game, that is very good. They are seventh in fewest runs permitted per innings pitched, so slightly above average. How they come to score that many runs and permit that few is where the smoke and mirrors comes in. Let's start with the offense. In this era of limited run-scoring, no one is hitting like they did ten years ago. The Twins 204 runs in 44 games is an average of 4.64 runs per game which would yield 751 runs in a full season--the 2004 Twins scored 780 runs and finished tenth in runs scored. Minnesota's team batting average so far this year is .257, good for third in the league however, the team OBP is 11th, team slugging is 11th and team OPS is 12th. It isn't home runs, either. The Twins rank 13th out of 15 in in long balls and have given up five more homers than they've hit. Somehow, the Twins have managed to score more runs per game than all but two teams. Last year's team also overproduced when viewing their on-base and slugging. One more point, it isn't the running game or more accurately stolen bases. The Twins are in the bottom half of both stolen bases and stolen base percentage. Pitching and fielding comprise defense. I don't know if it is pitching or fielding or both, but the Twins in the last four years have permitted either the most or second most runs in each of those four years. This year, eight teams are allowing more runs per inning pitched. Even more than the hitting, this result seems to fly in the face of the statistics that should support improvement. Minnesota is dead last in strikeouts, batting average against and hits allowed. They are tenth or worse in OBP against, OPS against and home runs allowed yet the team is allowing 4.23 runs per game. I don't believe the positive runs differential (and 59% winning percentage) can continue with such poor supporting numbers. If the Twins are going to continue to surprise their fans, they need to erase the gap between the stats that predict run-scoring and actual runs scored. Other teams have beaten the odds for portions of seasons, but eventually the law of averages catches up. More games like the last two will do wonders for all the numbers.

Nolasco now leads the pitching staff in the only stat that counts-wins baby!

Easy enough.

Perk can't make it too easy.

Way too much drama for a seven run lead.

Nine outs to get. Pretty sure it will come down to Perk vs. Cutch.

I blame me.

Nolasco has had a lot of offensive help, but not so much on defense.

Batting practice fastball. I was just going to say this is a big inning for Nolasco.

I think Nolasco will induce some anxiety before his outing is done.

Them Bucs are free swingers.

For most of the Pirates' lineup, the plan is "don't throw it over the plate".

Got the run back.

If there are official scorers like that all around the NL, somebody might hit .400.

BTW, just for grins and giggles, the Twins are on a pace to win 90 games this season. 90-72 anyone?