stringer bell

Do we have a weather forecast to go with the lineups?

It's pretty obvious that there is no consensus about the rotation and this segment of Twins Daily is comprised of fervent fans. I think that if five of us were asked to rank the starters from 1-5, we'd get five different lists. In the Twins case "best" and "worse" looks to be a matter of opinion.

Mixed feelings on this. There are six legit starters and none of them is a certainty to be an asset in the bullpen, which is where help is needed. Secondly, it pretty much does guarantee a 13-man staff, something I have railed against for months or at least since the Twins added another relief pitcher. Perhaps, short term this isn't a bad idea but after the All-Star break, it should be decided who is in the rotation or not.

I was originally going to write about the Twins "June Swoon", but the news of Vargas' demotion followed by word that Miguel Sano would assume his spot on the roster makes last month's struggle old news. The Twins are above .500 so by loose definition they are contenders to make the playoffs. They have promoted three of their top prospects within the last month and it looks like this won't be the end of the moves. First, a look at positions, followed by a look at players. Center Field: The Twins have supplanted an injured and now released Jordan Schafer with first, Aaron Hicks and then top prospect Byron Buxton. Both are currently on the DL, with Hicks rehabbing and Buxton supposedly not due back for three to five weeks. I was really surprised when Hicks was not recalled following the injury to Buxton. Hicks has struggled a bit in his first games, but had three hits today. I have to believe Hicks is in Kansas City tomorrow when the Twins face the Royals. The future still belongs to Buxton, despite his struggles with the Twins. Hicks future seems pretty uncertain. The team has started three guys in center in the last week. Shortstop: When Santana was demoted about a month ago, it was assumed that Eduardo Escobar would get his chance to establish himself as the current shortstop. It didn't happen. Santana has returned and started a few games and Eduardo Nuñez has been at short more than Escobar. Jorge Polanco is still in Chattanoogs and committing too many errors. Starting rotation: Ervin Santana's suspension is up on Independence Day. His three rehab starts were very good. All five current starters have a pretty good claim to stay in the rotation. Bullpen: Alex Meyer was recently called up and in two appearances where the starter was knocked out early, has been pretty close to dreadful. The two non-closing left handed reliever have bad statistics and little chance for upside. Blaine Boyer seems to be weakening after a stong start. DH: Vargas opened the season as the regular DH, got demoted and then came back. He hasn't been a constant threat and has seen his playing time diminish. It appears that Sano will get a chance at DH. Players: Kennys Vargas-He wasn't a top prospect last year, but last year he forced his way onto the Twins last year. This year has offered major regression. Vargas had a brief demotion to AAA and today was sent to Chattanooga. Vargas needs to hit with authority and he's failed to do that. As mostly a pure DH (a game at first occasionally) the production has to be substantial. Oswaldo Arcia--He was injured and then optioned to Rochester. Arcia finally has started hitting, but he's been passed by by Eddie Rosario as an outfielder and probably Miguel Sano as a DH. The way back to the majors isn't clear. I would guess someone needs to struggle while Arcia lights it up. Eduardo Escobar--Last year's primary shortstop has hardly played the position. Danny Santana was given the job and when he faltered Escobar has gotten a few starts, but other have started many more. Most of Escobar's playing time has come in left field. He hasn't hit well enough to be a serious alternative in the outfield. Danny Santana--The Opening Day shortstop was demoted to the minors and only recalled when there were injuries. He hasn't hit well since his recall, and started the last two games in center field. Eddie Rosario--Rosario was recalled in May and now seems secure to stay with the club. He has adjusted very well to the majors, starting games at all three outfield positions. Aaron Hicks--Recalled after dominating AAA, Hicks played well in the field, but was at best only a #9 hitter. He was injured just as Buxton was to be recalled and is rehabbing in Rochester. Hicks could be on his way back to the majors as soon as tomorrow. Byron Buxton--The crown jewel of the farm system, Buxton struggled but showed obvious talent. He is slated to be disabled for probably another month. It appears that the Twins have settled on Rosario as a regular outfielder and that DH will be handled by Sano for now. Center field probably goes to Hicks until Buxton is healthy. I don't know who the shortstop for the rest of the year will be. I wish they would give Escobar a legitimate chance at this point. I think Santana needs work in the minors, along with Vargas and Arcia. That is some high quality depth

There are prospects and there are PROSPECTS. Sano and Buxton are the upper-case type. They might struggle short-term, but within a year they should be cornerstones. Nobody should block them. Now jumping from AA does give some pause and increases the chance that they will not succeed immediately.

Sano probably is the DH most of the time. If Mauer is the DH, then Plouffe can play first and Sano third. They can give Plouffe a game off each week and DH him. Not sure that having Hunter DH would get Sano on the field. I'm wondering if Hicks is coming up. Escobar shouldn't be a regular left fielder and Santana needs to go back to the minors.

What was it that Chi-Town used to say? "Bleep it, I'm going to Target."?

Today.

The starters are good and pitching deeper into games than previous seasons, and yet they are carrying an eight-man bullpen. They have two or three guys who aren't good, reducing by one shouldn't be that big of a deal. yes, there were hiccups along the way, but they should get down to a 12-man staff sometime soon.

A pitcher, please! Actually, they could send Santana or Vargas down, as well. Vargas had the one good game, but overall he's struggling. DanSan hasn't captured the magic of 2014 yet.

I actually hope Pelf is hitting .400 by the end of the game. That would mean he pitched deep into the game and the Twins didn't need to pinch hit for him late in the game.

I was kind of expecting the return of Aaron Hicks, with Buxton on the shelf. Sugar Shane and Esco don't hit enough to be playing a corner, but one does with what they have. Good luck to Pelfrey tonight. Let's hope he keeps the ball on the ground in Cincy because that place is a bandbox.

I was going to "like" this post. I don't like it, but agree with it word-for-word. May does have one more chance, and he'll need to be more than effective. Also, if he is demoted, will he go to the bullpen or the minors?

Well, this is one DVR I won't be watching. Actually, I'd like to see Meyer's first outing, rocky though it was.

Concur. You don't look old enough. Then again, any self-respecting gentleman would yield his seat to a woman.

Nice job RiverBrian. Enjoy the game on Saturday. BTW, will you be a regular when the Tigers host the Twins?

I think Meyer will get his feet wet in a mop-up role. Once he is past the nerves of throwing his first pitch, getting his first strikeout etc., the role is undetermined. It would be great if Meyer shows enough to join Fien, Boyer and Perkins at the back end of the bullpen. I doubt that will happen, but time will tell.

Good points RB. I am still of the opinion that to improve their LH bullpen problems they will need to go outside the organization.

Great thread with a variety of opinions. Rather than respond to all of the posts, I'll offer up my thoughts on some of the comments made. 1) Unless he retires early, the Twins have a first baseman in Mauer. He's been somewhere between disappointing and awful the last two years. I have some hope that he will regress to his mean, but I doubt he'll ever be an All-Star again. 2) Kepler outhit Rosario (narrowly) in the AFL. He has outhit everyone (OPS) at AA. I recall watching him, Buxton and Sano taking BP three springs ago and the ball sounded different when those three hit the ball than when other prospects hit it. He's got fine speed and a good frame. I believe the power will come, but he could hit like Mauer with good OBP and a lot of extra base hits, not homers. 3) The Twins need LH power and Arcia provides that commodity more than any OF candidate. I don't think he is hopeless as an outfielder, but he has a long way to go to be adequate. He definitely needs another chance, but this year that would probably be at DH. Maybe that will be his role going forward, but the team could live with him on a corner with two plus outfielders filling out the outfield. If the Twins think he's a square peg in a round hole, he should have built some value to be traded. 4) Walker reminds me of Michael Restovich. Great power, fine speed, some holes in his swing. He's progressed and is having a fine year in AA. To me, he is behind Kepler as a prospect because he's older, right handed and hasn't played much besides the corner oufield. 5) Hicks hasn't shown me that he can hit in the majors. He might get another chance if Buxton is sent back to the minors. I hope he builds enough value to net something. On another team, he might be a starting center fielder. 6) I've liked Rosario for some time. I think his plate disciple has improved as he's adjusted to the majors. He's a good fielder and can steal a base. Will he be an All-Star? Probably not, but he could be a solid guy for a long time. I don't care that he had not done well in the upper minors, he can hit. 7) Buxton's least developed tool is hitting. I know he'll be fine, but it wouldn't surprise me that he would not be fine until he spends a bit more time in the minors. I hope not. Let's hope he learns at the big league level.

Now Brian, are you sure this is the first game of the series? After all, it's still inter-league play and the site hasn't changed. JK Nice intro, as always. I want the Cubs to do well, but I don't want them to win, does that make sense? I want Buxton to do well, and I do want him to win. I haven't looked at the pitching matchups, but it is tough to get going against St. Louis' staff, the Cubs have to be a bit easier.

Nothing in the original post about Adam Brett Walker? He's having a pretty good year in AA as well. Kepler is leading the Southern League in hitting, second in triples (behind Buxton) and second to Schwarber in OPS. He has to be considered for next year. Also he was named to the Southern All-Star team after Buxton was promoted. I think Mauer to the OF is a non-starter. Arcia is trade bait, despite his offensive upside. Buxton needs to get rolling before Hicks returns or he'll be sent back down.

The outfield and DH positions on the Twins presents many options and decisions will have to be made. The opening day outfield of Hunter, Schafer, and Arcia has been revamped to Hunter, Buxton, and Rosario. DH Kennys Vargas was demoted and has returned, but his status and his future are uncertain. Hunter started slowly this year, had a fine month of May and, with most of the team, fallen off in June. Torii has provided good offense, satisfactory defense and a whole bunch of personality. He's under contract for this season and so far the team has gotten it's money's worth from the almost 40-year old. He figures to be the primary right fielder, with several DH days, going forward. Buxton, the crown jewel of the Twins' farm system, was recalled last Sunday. He has a two week audition where he can take over center field, if not he would go back to the minors. The bar isn't that high and I expect BB will do enough to prolong his stay with the Twins. If Buxton is demoted, the job goes back to Aaron Hicks, who has looked like a big leaguer, but not a future star. Eddie Rosario has had a good run with the Twins. He has played both corners and made a number of good plays in the field. He's done a nice job hitting. He still doesn't walk much, but I think he is getting better at swinging at strikes. I think Rosario is here to stay. Like the Twins best player, Brian Dozier, he can hit, run the bases, and cover a lot of ground in the outfield and he has a good, accurate arm. If Rosario is the regular in left, it moves Oswaldo Arcia to compete with Vargas for DH at-bats. Torii Hunter is on a one-year contract and will be 40 next month. Despite his good season, I can't see Hunter continuing as a player with the Twins. Going forward, the Twins have several candidates to step forward. Arcia is in AAA. In Chattanooga Adam Brett Walker and Max Kepler are having breakout seasons. A year from now, most of those guys could be in the big leagues. It is great to have such a rich farm system, but not all the guys will be able to play where they should be playing. There will be 40-man roster issues and I think the Twins will have to selectively reduce guys who may be read to contribute. That is why I can get behind a building team making a trade where they yield prospects. The Twins need to decide who to go with. I think the emphasis should be to go with younger, more athletic players who can contribute in all facets of the game. Buxton, Rosario, Dozier, and perhaps Hicks represent a bright future.

There are a lot of decision to make with the Twins' position players. About the only completely sure thing is that Brian Dozier will be in the lineup every day. There are options for the Twins and the team has a manager without a long track record, so we don't know which direction he will go on many of the choices to be made. The merry month of May saw an extremely productive offense combined with improved defense from the position players. So far, June has shown a lot of the reverse of that. Let's look at the issues and digest both my predictions and opinions. Catcher has been a weak link this year. Starter Kurt Suzuki has predictably regressed, both on offense and defense. His throwing actually seems a bit better this year, but I believe that has more to do with pitchers doing a better job of holding runners than with Suzuki improving. Suzuki is durable, but I would much rather see him catching less if a better option could be found. Far more balls have found their way to the backstop this year than last year. Also, Suzuki really hit left handed pitching last year. This year, not so much. Internal options to improve the position are limited. Eric Fryer has put up good numbers at AAA, but he hasn't hit in the majors and he's almost 30 years old, Josmil Pinto has shown a good bat, but has defensive and concussion issues and Stuart Turner is a fine defender, but can't stay above the Mendoza line in AA. I have suggested for a while going for a good two-way catcher (Jonathan Lucroy or someone like that) and sending prospects. The second option would be to acquire someone to platoon with Zuke. We've seen guys do this before, many guys pretty unheralded until they are used properly. The third option would be to trade for a blocked prospect (for example SF's Susac). First base. Is Mauer done? The supremely talented, exceptionally athletic player of a few years ago has hit like Chris Parmelee (without the power). The bat seems slow, the swing longer and the results have been dismal. Right now, he is the worst regular first baseman in baseball. It's not just lack of power, he isn't even getting on base. Defensively, he looks more athletic than some, but remains a fish out of water, seemingly always hesitating when there is any choice to be made. The Twins are stuck with Mauer and his contract. He will have an incredibly long leash before there is serious consideration of benching him, but I don't think Molitor can stand for him to continue to hit third. Brian Dozier is the Twins best positon player. The only decision that needs to be made is where he hits in the lineup. I've liked him hitting first, but with Buxton in the majors, he should be shuffling down. When the move is made for Buxton to hit first, I would move Dozier to third and consider having Mauer hit second. Shortstop. I like Escobar quite a bit. He had a fine season last year and I think he would be an above-average bat and glove if he got regular at bats as the shortstop. Danny Santana started the season as the shortstop, but has regressed hard. He is intriguing because of the tools, fast hands and feet and a rocket arm, but he has to stop chasing pitches and recognize which ones to swing at. Jorge Polanco also figures at short. I'm not convinced he can play well enough defensively, but he looks like the most complete hitter of the shortstop candidates. Trevor Plouffe is a solid third baseman. He will stay there at least until Miguel Sano is ready to go and perhaps longer than that. I visualized Plouffe as a guy who could move around, but he has been good enough at third that he should stay there for the Twins until Sano proves he can be an upgrade. Trevor could be a valuable trade chip if the Twins go with Sano. I think Sano sees some time in the majors this year. The young slugger needs to improve on defense before he can move Plouffe down the road. My third and final decisions blog will discuss the outfield and why the Twins probably need to trade a prospect or two.

DocBauer has started a thread similar to what I intend to write. In my case, I'm going to provide my opinion as well as naming issues, so I decided to make a blog entry. There are a lot of issues, but many of those issues are not about weakness, but strength. That is an interesting situation to be in for the Twins, since they have lost more than 90 games in each of the last four seasons. I'll start with the pitching staff. The Twins possess seven starters, none of whom is a #1, but all who are capable, or so it appears. Hughes, Santana, and Nolasco have contracts that run through at least 2018. Gibson and May are not yet eligible for arbitration and won't be after this season. Milone is eligible for arbitration, but would be under team control for this year and three more years, and Pelfrey will be a free agent after this year. Things can change, but currently that is two too many starters. There are prospects getting close, as well. It is possible the Twins may trade one of their pitchers. The TD community prefers the (so far) overpaid Nolasco, but with that contract, it is unlikely that they'll find a taker unless they get a bad contract in return. If I'm the GM, I keep my cards close to the vest, but Milone and Pelfrey have to be available. I'm thinking of a deadline trade that is most difficult to make, one that can help both teams this year and beyond. The bullpen is weak. Their ERA is 12th in the 15-team American League, and their peripherals are even worse. Much of the blame has fallen on veterans Brian Duensing and Tim Stauffer (Stauffer was just DFAed), but even their effective bullpen arms allow too many hits and strike out too few. The problem with left handed relievers, outside of closer Glen Perkins, is especially grim. Left handers Caleb Thielbar, Duensing, and Aaron Thompson have allowed far too many base runners, 48 hits and 20 walks in 44.2 innings, with most of the good work coming in April from Thompson. I think one of the lefties will be switched out for Thielbar soon, but another left handed reliever is needed and probably gets acquired from outside the organization. Right handed relief has been better, and there are more options. Blaine Boyer has been a surprise, Casey Fien has been fine, when healthy, and Pressly, Tonkin, and Graham have all had their moments. I think a true power arm for the late innings combined with a solid lefty would transform the bullpen. Many relievers become available for less than monumental returns at the trading deadline. I would hope the Twins could acquire a couple of arms for prospects lower than the top 30 prospects.

I agree 100%. The defense is still worse than average, the bullpen is suspect, but the starting staff has been very good. It is especially encouraging to see pitcher after pitcher work into the seventh and eighth innings.