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stringer bell

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Everything posted by stringer bell

  1. stringer bell
    Disagree. The "defensive runs saved" is supposed to credit defenders for making plays outside of zone and penalize them for not reaching balls in the zone.
  2. stringer bell
    The fielding stats are supposed to account for range and Arraez still is fine. I am conflicted about fielding metrics and don't fully trust them as they are presented now. One thing for certain, few errors doesn't make an outstanding fielder on it's own. I would say that a high number of errors is an indicator of defensive issues.
  3. stringer bell
    Mighty small sample size for 3B last year. BBRef stats in '21 (55 games at third) were fine.
  4. stringer bell
    Arraez doesn’t have great defensive tools, but he isn’t a bad defender. It is true he is not fast and he’ll never have more than adequate range, but he isn’t a cause for concern at first, second or third. Keeping him healthy is another concern though.
  5. stringer bell
    Well thought out and certainly plausible. Nit pick—it isn’t really a platoon when both guys hit right (or left) handed. More accurately a job share.
  6. stringer bell
    One healthy season since 2018. Unfortunately, the Twins can't really gamble on a guy who has such an injury history.
  7. stringer bell
    This brings the total to 40. I would think the Twins would be tempted to claim a player or two that was removed from other team's 40-man. Also, they'll most likely claim someone during the Rule V Draft.
  8. stringer bell
    While I disagree with most of your takes, there is a grain of truth in what you are saying. Here is how I would put it: the hardest step for rookies is to establish themselves as major league players. To one degree or another, the Twins have a lot of guys stuck between prospect and established major leaguer and the club continues to count on many/most of them establishing themselves and hopefully thriving. Among the position players, I would include Jeffers, Kirilloff, Miranda, Larnach and Celestino. Much of the reason for not establishing themselves has been injury. Counting on all of them to be healthy and flourish is repeating a flawed plan, but assuming they are all busts is giving up too early and is the waste of considerable talent.
  9. stringer bell
    Garlick has almost three years of MLB service time. He’ll be 31 in January. Most assuredly not a rookie despite only 345 career plate appearances.
  10. stringer bell
    I couldn't find an ideal place to post this thought. Given the prospects the Twins have who are near ready, and their skills, it may be an ideal time to trade Luis Arraez. There are still three years of service time remaining, he's coming off a batting champion and Silver Slugger season and he's young (25 all of next season). I don't think his value will get much higher. Two prospects (Martin and Julien) are close to being ready. Both supply speed and Julien has power potential. Both guys look like OBP will be part of their game and will need a place to play. In addition to Martin and Julien, the top two position player prospects (Lewis and Lee) are also infielders. Luis Arraez is elite at what he does. He takes great at-bats, seldom strikes out and will probably be a .300 hitter for the rest of the decade. He also showed he is reliable in the field. His defensive numbers at both second and first were good last year. I believe if he played regularly at third, he'd be fine there. There are things Arraez is not--he's not going to hit for much power and he will never be speedy. In addition, he's dealt with a lot of leg injuries for a 24-year old. Finally, his second half last year was pedestrian. His walk rate was only about half of the rate in the first half. He also had an OPS of only .685 versus left handed pitching. An Arraez trade would have to net the Twins quite a bit--proven MLB talent or elite prospects. It also would be a hard sell to the fan base, so I don't know if it will happen, but if I'm the Twins' brass I'd certainly consider it.
  11. stringer bell
    I believe it was the first time they have a Silver Slugger for a utility player.
  12. stringer bell
    I think JD might be toast. I'd be hesitant about signing Haniger, given his injury history and the Twins recent history with acquiring soon-to-be injured players. Drury is intriguing, given his versatility, and success last year.
  13. stringer bell
    Even after a year when there was no Rule V draft, the Twins have 36 men on their 40-man roster allowing only for four to be added to protect against this year's Rule V. Many other teams have room to add 7-8. To me, this indicates that there isn't a lot of talent left to be protected, probably as a result of the deadline trades made in August. Also, guys like Woods Richardson and Wallner were added late in the season. Lewis, Lee, Miller and perhaps Martin could be projected as long-term answers at shortstop and if the Twins are confident that one of them will be the answer, it doesn't make sense to spend precious prospect capital for maybe as little as half a season for a shortstop. Unfortunately, (IMHO) if they believe in their prospects, it lowers the chances that they'll "go big" for a free agent shortstop.
  14. stringer bell
    Cave wasn't on the 40-man roster when they signed him. As I said above, the $ investment isn't important, but the 40-man spot has value.
  15. stringer bell
    Garlick will be 31 when Spring Training starts. He missed time with not one, not two, not three, but four injuries. I guess the Twins think he’ll be healthier this coming year. I thought that the Twins could find a better higher-upside option. The 40-man spot is much more important than the salary.
  16. stringer bell
    I am meh about signing Garlick. Despite his success against lefties, he really wasn't useful last year because he suffered so many injuries. He does have an option left IIRC, so he can be sent to St. Paul and the salary isn't a real problem.
  17. stringer bell
    I would differentiate a bit between Archer and Bundy, but it might be splitting hairs. Archer wasn't going to go more than 5 innings due to his injury history. Even getting him through 5 seemed to be an adventure and more than once he rather suddenly imploded. There seemed to be ample reason to cap Archer at 5 innings and/or twice through the order. Bundy, OTOH, did have one of the longest starts for a Twins pitcher (8 full innings). Even when he was rolling, his margin for error was tiny. An inch of break or a mph or two of velocity took him from acceptable to batting practice. It is understandable that he too couldn't be given much rope. Having Ryan and Gray out for large chunks of the season and then following them with Bundy and Archer was a recipe for failure. I don't think the Twins had anyone better and injuries to Winder, Paddack and Ober took away any chance to supplant the two veterans. Better health will likely make for a deeper staff with far more deep (6+ inning) starts. Going into 2023, I think the Twins can be comfortable letting Ryan go on a 180 IP per season clip, probably the same for Gray if he can avoid non-arm muscle pulls. I'd imagine they'd be cautious with Ober, although his injury problems weren't to his arm and he looked very good at the end of the season.
  18. stringer bell
    29-year-old Sonny Gray also might not be the same as 32-year-old Sonny Gray. Gray's primary pitch in 2022--2-seam fastball--wasn't overpowering, but fooled hitters with it's arm side break. I don't know if Gray was more dominating in '19 or if his pitch mix was different. It did seem that Gray was coming off or building up from injury for much of the '22 season. There are so many factors. Maybe I'm biased by the grunting, but it seemed that Gray was putting maximum effort into every pitch and I'm wondering if he emptied the tank with 85-95 pitches.
  19. stringer bell
    The stuff is there. That is probably true for a great number of pitchers. And he had a great half season to keep his confidence up. Some of his struggles were regression to the mean--he was extraordinarily successful with the Orioles.
  20. stringer bell
    Cody Stashak was placed on waivers, not claimed and chose to be a minor league free agent.
  21. stringer bell
    IIRC, Ober didn’t hit the IL until the tail end of 2021, then only so someone else got a shot to start a late September game. The Twins limited his innings, mostly because due to injury and COVID, he hadn’t thrown many innings in the preceding years. I do agree that future acquisitions should prioritize pitchers who project as durable.
  22. stringer bell
    It seems most clubs are reducing their 40-man roster to the low 30s to make room to protect minor leaguers from Rule V and sign free agents.
  23. stringer bell
    Not sure if commenting on a blog entry bumps it, but I do want to again say that Martin's skill set is a fit for the Twins needs, as supported by his performance in the AFL. He's hit, stolen bases and played multiple positions, including center field. I hope he gets plenty of run in Spring Training and puts himself in the conversation for promotion to the majors early in 2023.
  24. stringer bell
    Not sure I agree. If their OBP is "pretty similar" as you state, Julien certainly profiles as a superior power threat and thus would project to have a much higher OPS. Personally, I'm not sure if Julien can sustain such high walk rates and maintain his elite OBP, but if he does, he's going to be a good offensive MLB player.
  25. stringer bell
    It seems to me that Johnson’s calling card was teaching and technical. He was able to get extra spin and mph for pitchers. Can his successor to the same? For the season, I think the Twins pitchers overperformed expectations and projections. There really doesn’t seem to be any evidence that they were able to avoid injury, although several (Gray, Ryan and Ober) missed time, but not for arm issues.
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