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stringer bell

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Blog Entries posted by stringer bell

  1. stringer bell

    Survivors

    By stringer bell,


    Relocated franchises
    A while ago, one of the last of the original Minnesota Twins passed away. His name was José Valdivielso, who had an unremarkable major league career mostly with the original Senators. While noting his passing, I checked on how many of the Opening Day Minnesota Twins were still living. That total is five, or seven if you count players who played for the team sometime during their inaugural season. The next step down the rabbit hole for me was to see how many Griffith family Senators (the Twins predecessor) have survived and that answer was seven including four 1961 Twins--Jim Kaat, Camilo Pascual, Pedro Ramos and Don Lee. Those four guys threw a majority of innings for the '61 Twins--Pascual was an All-Star, Ramos a solid starter as was Kaat in the beginning of a Hall of Fame career. Lee was a swing man in the era of four-man rotations.
    So naturally, I thought about other "dead" franchises. How many Brooklyn Dodgers are still drawing breath? How about the New York Giants? St. Louis Browns? Boston Braves? Philadelphia Athletics? For these franchises, I was aware of a couple of players, but a check at Baseball Reference revealed more information. First of all, the Boston Braves have no surviving players. Del Crandall started his career with Boston and passed away in 2021, marking the end of living Braves from their original home. All of the other franchises that moved in the '50s have survivors. The Giants and Dodgers both moved late in that decade and still have a few players living. Notable among the Giants is ex-Twin Al Worthington, the oldest survivor who played for the Giants and for the Dodgers Sandy Koufax, "the Left Arm of God", who retired early and has been in the Hall of Fame since 1972, that's eleven years longer than the youngest HOFer (Joe Mauer) has been alive.
    The St. Louis Browns moved to Baltimore in 1954, so over 70 years ago, and two players are still with us. The more notable is Billy Hunter, who went on to a six-year major league career and later managed the Orioles. The Philadelphia Athletics moved to Kansas City in 1955 and one Athletic remains. His name is Bobby Shantz, who will be 100 years old this year. Bobby Shantz was the AL MVP in 1952, before there was a Cy Young award and won eight Gold Gloves as a pitcher. He is the last living player to have played for Connie Mack.
    Here is a complete list of survivors of defunct teams that moved in the '50's and early '60's. Washington Senators (1901-1960)--Ken Aspromonte, Jim Kaat, Don Lee, Bob Oldis, Camilo Pascual, Pedro Ramos, Bob Ross. New York Giants (1883-1957)--Joey Amalfitano, Jackie Brandt, Ray Crone, Joe Margoneri, Bill White and Al Worthington. Brooklyn Dodgers (1884-1957)--Bob Aspromonte, Jim Gentile, Fred Kipp and Sandy Koufax. St. Louis Browns (1902-1953)--Ed Mickelson, Billy Hunter, Philadelphia Athletics (1901-1954)--Bobby Shantz.
    Photo of Shantz in a Philadelphia A's uniform in 1953.
     

  2. stringer bell

    More Thoughts--Super Bowl Edition

    By stringer bell,


    Player projection
    TV--While the details are not known, the Twins have re-upped with Diamond/Bally for another (and final season). I am one that has been able to watch every Twins game, which is the main reason I have the "Sports Pack" on DirecTV. The reported amount on the television contract is 85% of what the Twins received in 2023, a reduction of perhaps $8M. The prospects for a better number in 2025 are not great unless the Twis profit greatly from streaming. While I am relieved the Twins will be available on TV and I don't have to do anything to see a great majority of their games, it seems to me the long-term outlook is still plenty cloudy. Rights fees are going to fall, perhaps precipitously, and the cost to subscribers on cable is almost certain to jump. How much, a no-blackout streaming contract would generate is open to questions from all sides? How much will the teams get? How much will the streamer charge to subscribe? What are fans going to pay and will they be willing to pay what is charged? It has entered my mind that if things go sideways, overall revenue will drop sharply to the point that players salaries will go down. IMHO, the cost for medium talent is out of hand--give Shohei and Judge their money, but don't pay obscene amounts to okay to good players. Arbitration season contracts bear this out, as well.
    Injuries--Probably fifteen (maybe more) teams can credibly say today (within days of Spring Training) if they have good health, they will make the post season. I would say that includes the Twins. In 2022, the Twins used the IL second most in MLB. Last year, they were sixth. The difference for the Twins from 2022 to 2023 is that they had major league players available when other players went down. They were six or seven deep in competent starting pitchers and had major league ready players available for position player injuries. Bailey Ober and Louie Varland filled in well and guys like Donovan Solano, Kyle Farmer and Michael A Taylor met or exceeded expectations and got plenty of playing time. Royce Lewis, Matt Wallner and Edouard Julien got their chances as well and cemented themselves into the Twins' 2024 plans. This year, the Twins have added on veteran, Carlos Santana, to the position player mix, but Solano and Taylor are gone and Jorge Polanco was traded. Reinforcements would come from the same system that produced Lewis, Wallner and Julien. Last year, Polanco and Kirilloff started the season on the IL, this year there is no such carryover, but there is less proven depth to cover absences due to injuries, especially the starting pitching rotation. On the subject of injuries, I've seen TD posters question the recoveries of Byron Buxton, Alex Kirilloff, Jose Miranda and newcomer Anthony DeSlafani. and Josh Staumont. Who knows? Maybe none of them will be ready, but there's no evidence either way that they won't be healthy on Wednesday. We shall see. Personally, I doubt the recovery of DeSclafani the most. 
    Bullpen--In contrast to the position player possibilities and the starting rotation, the Twins have added a bunch of veteran relief arms, most of them with options. Josh Staumont, Jay Jackson, Justin Topa and Zack Weiss were added to the bullpen and all are over 30, all under team control for multiple years and all but Jackson have options. They have additional pitchers with big league experience on minor league contracts. I'd say they have redundancy in the bullpen. They shouldn't have much hesitancy to option any of these guys and someone should be effective. The floor of the bullpen has been lifted considerably.
    Carlos Santana--Yeah, he's 38 and he hasn't been a truly above-average hitter for five years, but he had 23 homers and 86 RBI last year. I can't see a huge falloff in 2024 from this guy. He's historically better against left handed pitching and his floor with the 2024 Twins is as a platoon partner for Alex Kirilloff. Injuries will probably give him plenty of at-bats against right handers. It is an open question if another, younger option might be a better fit. If Santana crashes and burns, I would hope the Twins can cashier him rather than keep him on the roster all season. 
     
  3. stringer bell
    Some thoughts from me--a contrarian old guy who has followed the Twins since they moved from Washington:
    Did you know? Playing the Immaculate Cube has educated and entertained me to a significant degree. I have tried to use as many Twins and ex-Twins as I can find in filling out the cube. Was there ever a guy who played for the Twins and hit 40 homers for the Reds? Yes, and if you knew this you are a trivia maven or cheat by using a baseball reference source. The answer is Wally Post. How about a Gold Glove winner from the Tigers--yeah we all knew it was Kenny Rogers. Silver Slugger on the Giants (Donny Barrels!). I've found some interesting fun facts in trying to fill in Twins on the grid.
    Lefty advantage: The Twins lean right with their pitching staff. Last year, left handed pitchers started exactly six games in the entire season, all by Dallas Keuchel. Left handers accounted for only 106 of 1451 innings pitched by the staff. I have seen several articles recently demonstrating the "lefty advantage" for both pitchers and hitters. The Twins seem to subscribe to the advantage for hitting, but not for their mound staff. I continue to believe that adding a left handed starter would be beneficial, perhaps beyond the numbers put up by the starter. Defensively, the edge for left handed throwing first baseman is something the Twins have traditionally not done despite obvious advantages. I don't think those advantages are adequately covered by defensive metrics, more on that later.
    Speaking of left handers and looking up former Twins, I believe people don't remember or didn't know what a good pitcher former Twin and native Minnesotan Jerry Koosman was. In comparing Kooz with another former Twin Hall of Famer, he had a far better career ERA and ERA+ than Jack Morris. He struck out more batters in basically the same amount of innings. Koosman won 222 games in his long career (Morris won 254). Koosman's career WAR was 53.7, better than Morris, Kirby Puckett or Tony Oliva.
    A left handed hitter in Twins history who was far better than I remembered was Don Mincher (I remembered Halsey Hall calling him "Minch in a pinch" because of his pinch hitting abilities).  Mincher had an OPS+ of over 100 in every full season and managed a lifetime OPS+ of 127, better than Kirby Puckett or Joe Mauer. 
    Misconceptions: I seen several posts saying that Kyle Farmer could platoon with Alex Kirilloff at first base. Farmer has played first base about as much as Christian Vázquez and obviously we don't want to see that much if at all. Farmer is a natural to get at-bats against left handed pitching in place of Edouard Julien. Further, I think Farmer's overall value has dropped to the Twins due to the personnel on the team. They have a replacement for Carlos Correa (Brooks Lee) in St. Paul and he's a top prospect. As a fill-in for a day or two, I think Willi Castro can play shortstop every bit as well as the 34-year-old Farmer. Farmer never has been regarded as fast, but is the epitome of the reliable guy who turns outs into outs, but he's range limited with only an okay arm. His fielding metrics last year were neutral at second and third, but substandard at shortstop. This really limits Farmer's value. I don't think there is another team that would consider him to be an everyday starter at shortstop, and that really hurts his trade value. He might be most valuable to the Twins in part due to his clubhouse presence.
    Nick Gordon has improved his chances to make the Twins out of Spring Training with the trade of Jorge Polanco. I'm skeptical of him helping the team this year because what he does comparatively well (hit right handed pitching) is already covered by Julien, Wallner and Willi Castro. Nick's brother was a really fast runner (won a stolen base crown) and people seem to think Gordon is also really fast. He's not, his sprint speed before his broken shinbone was 50th percentile. He's slower than Matt Wallner and the equal of Alex Kirilloff. Burners like Bubba Thompson and (a healthy) Byron Buxton are two-three feet per second faster. I credit Nick with making himself a viable major leaguer by becoming a capable outfielder while already on the Twins. Unfortunately, he is a utility guy who is really stretched playing shortstop and he's barely played the infield corners. 
    Defensive metrics: I remain suspicious of defensive metrics. First of all, I think rating defense in assigning WAR often misses the mark. Secondly, I think it is tough to measure. I don't think outfielder's throwing arms are properly credited, for example. A Matt Wallner or Michael Cuddyer can make up for not catching an occasional drive to the gap due to denying extra bases because of their strong throwing arms. Too often Defensive Runs saved doesn't justify with other measures such as range factor. Some measures reward lack of errors and "turning outs into outs" while others seem to reward making plays not expected. No system is foolproof and it seems to me that a reputation is rewarded long after the actual performance has slipped. There also isn't enough credit for versatile players that might play where they are stretched or unfamiliar like Nick Gordon or Willi Castro playing center field.
    Several more thoughts in this cluttered mind. Maybe I'll make another entry before Spring Training starts.
     
     
  4. stringer bell

    Finding a Jewel in the Ruins

    By stringer bell,


    2024 Rotation
    I have speculated that if the Twins acquire a starting pitcher, he won’t clearly be seen as a top 50 or 60 starter. I would think the guy will be either unproven, an injury risk or coming off a disappointing or unproductive season. Further, I think most teams are placing a high price on pitching, particularly guys under team control.
    Teams that have no real hope of contending should be a little more willing to part with starters under team control because by the time they expect to contend, guys in the majors will have moved on. In addition, bad teams might have pitchers whose stats look worse because they are playing for a bad team. Maybe a bad bullpen allowing lots of inherited runners to score, perhaps bad defense behind him or instances where the manager had no choice but to let a team put up crooked numbers because there was nobody available in the bullpen.
    There were four 100-loss teams in 2023. Two of them were in the AL Central and thus would be unlikely to deal with the Twins. The other two teams are Oakland and Colorado. In exploring the pitching staffs for those two teams, my first thought was ugh!, there just isn't anything there. However, in looking a little deeper, I found one guy from each staff to consider. From Colorado, Austin Gomber was 29 last year and pitched 139 innings, he is a lefty, something I think the Twins would like to have in their rotation. In looking at Gomber's home-road splits, he compiled a 3.68 ERA on the road, away from Coors Field. I don't know anything about his injury history, but acquiring the road Austin Gomber for prospects might be something to consider. It appears that Coors messes with a lot of pitchers' heads and adjustments made in the high altitude diminish effectiveness when the pitcher is at a normal altitude. 
    From Oakland, I nominate JP Sears. Similar to Gomber, he is a lefty in his late 20s. He worked over 170 innings last year and while his numbers weren't good overall, he seems to have worn down over the course of the year and perhaps the wearing down was exacerbated by being on a terrible team. His first half ERA was 3.97 with a 1.044 WHIP. and over 8 Ks per nine innings pitched. The walks and hits soared in the second half, so I will speculate he did wear out. He's not a big guy--5'11"180 lbs.--and this was his first full year of the major leagues. Also, I have to suspect that his manager was forced to work him longer in games because of the rest of the pitching staff being pretty awful. The coming season might allow Sears to handle additional work better and the Twins probably would be better suited to conserve his innings pitched. 
    I know very little about either pitcher mentioned other than a quick look at BBRef. For all I know, either or both could already be scheduled for major surgery, but I do think looking for an undervalued asset on a bad team is one way to get value. 
  5. stringer bell

    My Minnesota Minnesota Twins lineup and roster

    By stringer bell,


    All time native Minnesota team (Twins)
    Here is a lineup of ex-Twins or current Twins:
    Molitor 3b, Mauer c, Winfield rf, Hrbek 1b, Steinbach dh, Eisenreich cf, Wallner lf, Terrell ss and Kindall 2b, Morris p. The lineup features three Hall of Fame players (with Mauer likely #4), another Twins player who had his number retired along with a couple of jouneymen in the middle infield. Jack Morris leads a rotation which features three guys who won 20 games and a bullpen with an All-Star closer. Here's the pitching staff: Jack Morris, Jerry Koosman, Dave Goltz, Dick Stigman, and Louie Varland for the rotation. Bullpen: Bob Gebhard, Mike Morin, Tom Johnson, Caleb Thielbar, Tom Burgmeier and Glen Perkins. Bench players: Greg Olson (c), Brian Raabe (if), Tom Kelly (1b-of), Michael Restovich (of) and maybe Tom Quinlan (3b).
    As most of you have noted by now, this is a team of Twins all born in Minnesota. There are more native born Minnesotans who have worn the TC, including sports writer Charlie Walters and the immortal Fred Bruckbauer (infinity ERA), but this is a plausible all-time all Minnesota Minnesota Twins team.
    Edit to add: George Thomas played briefly for the Twins in 1971. His career was far superior to Tom Quinlan. Add him to the roster. Thanks @Paul D.
     
  6. stringer bell

    Depth in 2024

    By stringer bell,


    Analysis
    I read somewhere on Twins Daily that the MVP for the Twins in 2023 was depth. After losing a lead in 2022, the Twins added several depth pieces to their roster along with keeping Carlos Correa after it appeared that he would leave due to free agency. Adding to the starting pitching staff by acquiring Pablo López wasn't directly adding depth to the rotation, but adding a solid starter moved Bailey Ober out of the rotation temporarily, so when injuries eventually occurred, they had Ober and Louie Varland ready as the sixth and seventh guys to take the ball. The Twins traded for Michael A. Taylor and with Byron Buxton's inability to play center, that depth piece became a regular. Correa's signing meant that Kyle Farmer, pegged as the regular shortstop, could assume a utility role and the Twins signed Willi Castro, a speedy guy with the ability to play several positions, as another depth piece. Nick Gordon had flourished in the latter part of 2022 and was another player capable of manning several positions. Finally, the Twins signed Donovan Solano late in the winter. He proved to be a vital hitter with the ability to fill in at three different infield spots. 
    Many, including myself, lauded the front office for the foresight to be ready for the inevitable injuries and underperformances. As mentioned, Buxton never got to center field and only played in 85 games as the DH, José Miranda, coming off a nice rookie year was both disappointing and injured and only played in 40 games, Projected starters Jorge Polanco and Alex Kirilloff both started the season on the IL and went back on the injury list later in the season. Every position player starter spent time on the IL, one rotation member (Mahle) was lost for the season before the frost was out of the ground and yet the depth (and reinforcements) kept the Twins above water and finally carried them to a comfortable division flag. 
    So, this year seems to be totally different. While the Twins appear to have a pretty solid 26-man roster, they have only added a lottery ticket to their bullpen. I know it's only January, but the lack of activity seems telling. There hasn't been any speculation that the Twins were in on a substantial free agent. The club has announced they will be cutting payroll, perhaps to the point that any payroll additions would have to be countered by subtractions. There hasn't been a replacement added for either of the two rotation members who left by free agency and so far no activity to bolster the center field mix minus Taylor. It looks to me like the Twins are going to try to fill these gaps internally, a complete departure from 2023. 
    I have belief that players on the roster or in St. Paul can fill those gaps. I think Austin Martin will be a capable outfielder with good speed and bat to ball skills. I think Miranda will come back and capably fill the role that Solano handled so well in '23. I think Brooks Lee will be a future star as soon as this year.  I expect that the current five-man rotation will be among the best in the American League. However, beyond those just mentioned, my confidence is not nearly as high. There will be injuries to the pitching staff and to position players. Most everyone on the 40-man roster will be on the major league roster at some point in the season. I don't see the proven depth to step in when the inevitable rash of injuries occurs. 
    I guess the front office is gambling that a) injuries will be manageable and b) the internal options will adequately fill the gaps in the Opening Day roster. I am not so sure, but do understand how tough it is to acquire the help needed with the payroll constraints. 
  7. stringer bell
    The Twins have completed a sweep of the KC Royals and increased their lead in the AL Central to two games. Just to show they are impartial, the Royals play Cleveland next and send out the worst starting pitcher in MLB (Jordan Lyles) to face the Guardians tonight. The Twins have an off day today and face the Baltimore Orioles for the second weekend in a row, this time at Target Field.
    The Orioles are a team on the rise. After being the only bad team for years in the AL East, they have become respectable and have a much better record than the Twins. They have been given many top draft choices this decade and those draft choices are bearing fruit. Adley Rutschman, Gunnar Hendrickson, Jordan Westburg and Colton Couser have all been added in the last two years with more premium prospects in the system. Their pitching staff has been built mostly by trial and error--keep churning guys through the system and some will work out--including Jorge López who was flipped to the Twins at last year's trade deadline. On the pitching staff, the '23 Orioles have four pitchers who at one time were property of the Twins, including probably the number one loss on a Rule V claim in recent history. Here's a look at four pitchers who have gone from the Twins directly or indirectly to the Orioles.
    #4--Kyle Gibson. Kyle Gibson was a #1 draft pick by the Twins. A college pitcher, he debuted midseason in 2013 and gave the Twins six and a half years of starts. Gibson was promoted as a sinkerballer who threw hard enough to get strikeouts and I suspect his stuff would have played better in another era. His body of work is middle of the road, but he has been better than that for stretches, including an All-Star selection in 2021. I have met Kyle and he is one of my favorite ballplayers. Since his time with the Twins, Gibson pitched for Texas and Philadelphia before signing as a free agent with the Orioles.
    #3--Danny Coulombe. Coulombe pitched parts of three seasons with the Twins. He is a left handed middle reliever and in his time with the Twins he was mostly effective. For the third year in a row, he signed a minor league contract with the Twins. Now 33 years of age, this year's contract had an opt-out clause in the contract. If another club wanted to offer a major league roster spot Coulombe could opt out of his contract with the Twins. The Orioles offered and the Twins had to let him go. Given his history, and the fact that Coulombe signed three straight minor league contracts with the Twins, I think it is defensible that the Twins didn't put him on the major league roster solely to keep him in the organization. On the other hand, did they really need to keep a long reliever (Cole Sands) and Emilio Pagán? Coulombe has performed very well for the Os. His ERA is under 3 and he is averaging over 11 Ks per nine innings. 
    #2--Yennier Cano. Cano was signed by the Twins in 2019 as a 25-year old. He put up excellent strikeout numbers, but displayed command issues. Regardless, Cano advanced through the Twins upper minors and made his debut last year. He got hit hard. The pattern would be some outstanding pitches followed by non-competitive waste pitches and then a grooved fastball or breaking ball. Too many walks, too many pitches out of the strike zone and too many homers. Cano was included in the trade that landed Jorge López and few (including me) thought much about him being added as a throw-in, especially since he was already 28 years old. Baltimore kept him in the majors to close out the year and he continued to be ineffective. However, in 2023, soOmething has clicked. Cano was unscored on in April, allowed no hits and no walks in 11 innings. He pitched very well in May, as well, but has appeared a bit more vulnerable as time has gone on. He's going to the All-Star game and is a great story.
    #1-Tyler Wells. There's been a lot of angst that Danny Coulombe and Yennier Cano have been important bullpen pieces for the Orioles this year. Less has been said about probably the O's best starter Tyler Wells. Wells was a 2016 draftee for the Twins who had advanced through their organization. During the 2020 COVID year, he didn't compete and was left unprotected in the Rule V draft. The Orioles picked him and he stuck with the club in 2021. He pitched out of the (bad) Orioles bullpen in 2021 and posted okay numbers for a guy who had only pitched 32 innings above A ball. Pitching around injuries, Wells stayed on the major league roster in 2022 and joined the rotation. in 2022. Wells was pretty good last year (7-7 4.25 ERA) and this year has been much better than that. He leads all qualified MLB pitchers in WHIP (Joe Ryan is second) and is 6-4 with a 3.19 ERA. The only thing keeping Wells from being a Cy Yound contender is that he has yielded 21 homers this year while having a pitcher-friendly home park. IMHO, this is the current one that got away for the Twins.
     
  8. stringer bell

    Kirilloff & Lewis

    By stringer bell,


    Analysis
    Alex Kirilloff and Royce Lewis are two Twins players that have a lot in common. Both guys were high draft choices who reached top prospect status. Both guys have missed most of the last two seasons with injuries and started this season on the Injured List due to serious injuries suffered last year. Both returned to the team this year and prompted speculation that their arrival might propel the Twins this year. 
    While there is a lot to like, I think neither of these guys is playing like an instant star. I also think that if the Twins aspire to be more than a near-.500 team, it will be because of one or both of these young players. Here's my view of their abbreviated seasons so far this year:
    Kirilloff had a second surgery on his troublesome right wrist and it was thought that he might be ready to to be on the roster on Opening Day. That didn't happen. Alex didn't face live pitching until late in spring training and he was placed on the Injured List to start the season. Kirilloff used all of his 20-day rehab and hit well at each level with no signs of wrist discomfort or impairment. Still, with the club in first place and Joey Gallo hammering a lot of homers and playing a good first base, Kirilloff was briefly optioned to St. Paul in early May. Injuries quickly opened a spot and Alex was back! In his first week back, he looked like a future batting champion, taking walks, swinging at strikes and frequently hitting the ball hard. He's tailed off since then and hasn't hit for much power. AK has mostly played first base, but has also logged quite a few innings in the outfield corners. Kirilloff has been shielded from left handed pitching, not starting several games against lefties and he's frequently been replaced by a pinch hitter. Significantly, Kirilloff hasn't missed a game due to injury.
    Lewis suffered his second consecutive torn ACL in June last year and was placed on the 60-day IL when the season started. He also didn't face live pitching during the spring. Royce began his 20-day rehab within a day or two of the earliest date possible and was activated from the Injured List on the first day he was eligible. Lewis made an immediate impact with a homer in his first game and a key late inning hits as the Twins played better for a spell. Royce is currently sporting a batting average over .300 with three homers and a dozen RBI. Good numbers, for sure. He hasn't been turned loose on the base paths yet and he's only walked a couple of times while being prone to the strikeout. Except for one inning in a blowout game, Lewis has exclusively played third base. He's made a number of athletic highlight reel plays, but also made some errors.game due to injury.  
    I think the time for both Lewis and Kirilloff is soon, but not now. Lewis has had many of his best at-bats with the most on the line. Kirilloff is much more consistent in his at-bats, but so far hasn't done that much damage. Lewis is prone to more non-competitive plate appearances, but has risen to the occasion quite a few times already. Baldelli has batted Kirilloff in the top half of the order against right handers and hit Lewis lower (5th -7th). I would expect that Lewis could move to the top of the order when he becomes more selective. Lewis has been given off days since returning to the Twins, probably a wise move considering Royce's injury history. 
    Expecting Royce Lewis and Alex Kirilloff to lead the Twins to the promised land of a division championship and playoff success is probably asking too much this year. Having them be contributors beside Buxton, Correa and Polanco is a more reasonable expectation. Maybe as soon as next year they might be headliners. I hope and expect that their games will round off--that AK will hit with more power and that Lewis will show a more complete overall game. It's important that they are healthy and their futures still look bright. 
     
  9. stringer bell
    The Twins' offense this spring has been frustrating and disappointing to this point in the season. Any team with the worst team batting average in MLB wouldn't be satisfied with their hitting, add in an inordinate number of strikeouts and puzzling underperformance from high-priced talent and it figures that players could be booed at home. As compared to when the 2022 season ended, this club is healthy, especially on the position player side. Max Kepler will be out for ten days, Royce Lewis will finish his rehab assignment at the end of May and everyone else that figured to contribute this year is available. 
    The most recently available player is perhaps the most significant. Alex Kirilloff returned from the Injured List and rehab just over a week ago. The Twins and your's truly see a potential All-Star--someone who can both get on base and hit for power, who can lengthen the lineup and put runs on the board. Much of the reason for optimism is from his dominance in the minor leagues and brief flashes of a healthy AK mashing major league pitching. 
    It's all dependent on a wrist. Kirilloff has had his last two seasons ended early because of wrist pain and subsequent surgery. The second surgery was major, some  have called it experimental, The Twins have brought AK on slowly, with no real setbacks. So far, so good. The results on the field have been excellent (only 22 plate appearances), Seven hits in sixteen at-bats, with six walks and three strikeouts. Two homers and a double. When the wrist began to impact Kirilloff in the last two years, he quit driving the ball and hit lots of weak grounders. So far, he's hit a high percentage of balls on the ground, but he's hitting the ball hard and the two homers yesterday show that he can drive the ball. 
    What's reasonable for this year? AK should get something north of 400 plate appearances and if he can become a full-time fixture, he could get to 500. In 500 plate appearances, perhaps he could hit as many as 20 homers and I think the batting average could be above .300, which would make him a unicorn. I think if he walks at a 2:3 ratio to strike outs, it would show newfound selectivity. He has not chased out of the zone and has taken his walks so far. A .300 BA combined with a > 10% walk rate would be outstanding for a player in his first full year. 
    I'm pulling the projected numbers out of the air. I am also showing my optimism for Kirilloff's ability. I think he can be an elite offensive player and a fine defender. Someone who can really get the offense rolling. I hope in a few months, that people will say this blog has aged well. 
  10. stringer bell

    A Successful April

    By stringer bell,


    Analysis
    The Twins concluded the first month of the 2023 regular season with a 17-12 record. They stand 3.5 games ahead of Cleveland in the mediocre AL Central Division. What was projected to be a tough April schedule ended up being very manageable. The Twins played seven games against the New York Yankees, winning four, at an ideal time, with the Yankee pitching staff and lineup hamstrung by injuries. They also played the World Champion Astros, winning two of three, while the Astros were in an early season funk.  
    How did the Twins manage to win 17 games? Pitching is the easy answer. The Twins allowed only 108 runs in 29 games, second best runs per game in the AL. Meanwhile, they scored 134 runs, seventh best, despite early struggles and cold weather. The offensive production was inconsistent until the just-completed home stand where the Twins scored six runs or more in six of the last seven games. That production was fueled by the long ball. The Twins have homered in eleven consecutive games and have already hit nine three-run homers--last year they hit seventeen in the entire season. 
    The pitching started out fantastic. There has been some regression to the mean, but there is still a lot to like. The top three starters have been healthy and effective. Sonny Gray, Joe Ryan and Pablo Lopez have taken the ball and most often completed six or more effective innings. Gray is 4-0 with a microscopic 0.77 ERA, Ryan is 5-0 with a fine 2.81 ERA and after two consecutive subpar starts Lopez is 2-2 with a 4.00 ERA. Lopez has the most innings pitched and strikeouts and his first four starts were outstanding. The bottom half of the rotation has predictably been less effective and now seems dogged by injury. After two decent starts, Kenta Maeda has left his last two starts due to injury and was knocked around before leaving in his last start. Tyler Mahle pitched pretty well, but left his last start and now will be shut down for most of the month of May. The oft-noted rotation depth will be utilized with Bailey Ober already joining the rotation and most likely Louie Varland the next man up. The Twins bullpen has been a top heavy affair. Closer Jhoan Duran wows with his awesome stuff although he's had a few hiccups so far. Jorge Lopez hasn't allowed an earned run, but allowed some hits and an inherited runner in his last two outings, Griffin Jax has been mostly effective although batted ball luck makes his numbers look pretty pedestrian and Caleb Thielbar continues to thrive with one poor outing in an otherwise outstanding month of April. Long relief has done their job, providing lots of innings and pitches in the few one-sided affairs the Twins have played. The problem is the other guys. Jorge Alcala and Jovani Moran were supposed to be reliable bridges to the aforementioned late-inning high-leverage guys and they haven't been effective. Alcala was sent to the minors and Moran looks like he won't be trusted, at least for the near future. Emilio Pagan also provokes anxiety, although he too only had one really bad outing. 
    The Twins' defense is pretty sound so far this year. There isn't a lot of range outside of Taylor, but most everyone is reliable at turning outs into outs. Donovan Solano has played one game at second base and several at first, and he appears substandard. Joey Gallo has adjusted very well to first base. Miranda has been okay, but nothing special at third base. The outfield has played well defensively, with a few exceptions.
    Positive surprises for the month of April center on the pitching. Lopez, Ryan and Gray have been outstanding on the front end of the rotation--they were projected to be good and they have been better than that. The back end of the bullpen has been as good as advertised, including Jorge Lopez, who seems to have regained the form he had with the Orioles. The Twins have gotten good productivity and good defense from the catchers. Polanco and Buxton are hitting and figure to become the dynamic center of the lineup for a good team. For the position players, health seems to be returning, with Kyle Farmer on the mend and Alex Kirilloff ending his injury rehab. 
    There are concerns that need to be addressed. The front end of the bullpen is unreliable at present and this is one area where the Twins lack depth. Someone needs to step up. Further, if the Twins continue to lean heavily on Jax, Thielbar, JLopez and Duran, they will risk burning out the effective back end guys. Carlos Correa, Nick Gordon and (marginally) Jose Miranda have not been effective hitters. Patience is probably needed for the hitters, with Nick Gordon probably on the bubble for demotion or DFA. The Twins are last in MLB in stolen bases, mostly due to lack of team speed, which also probably is reflected in a lack of range at several positions.
    In summary, the first month has gone very well. The Twins are now favorites to win the Central division according to betting lines and Fangraphs, but there are still five months of baseball left to secure a place in the playoffs. There are flaws on this team, particularly in bullpen depth. It should be exciting going forward and there are plenty of reasons to be optimistic.  
     

  11. stringer bell

    A Deeper Dive after 13 Games

    By stringer bell,


    Early statistics
    The top line is that the Twins are 9-4 and lead the AL Central by two games. They've outscored their opponents 58-34, the second-best run differential in the American League. 34 runs allowed is second-best in MLB while the 58 runs scored is 17th of 30 teams. Team batting stats are so-so at best--23rd in team BA and OPS, 17th in runs scored, 15 (T) in homers, 20th in walks and seventh (worst) in strikeouts. The pitching stats make up for the poor offense and then some: second in ERA, second in least walks, first in strikeouts, first in WHIP and a middling 19th in homers allowed. The defense has been very good--a few sparkling plays and very few forced or unforced errors. They have been charged with four errors total, about what the White Sox might do for a three-game series. 
    Now for some thoughts on individuals:
    Pablo Lopez--Dare I say 'ace"? Each start seems to be better. After having the first four hitters reach, with two in and two in scoring position for his last outing, Lopez got out of that inning without further damage and set down a total of 23 straight batters. He's going deep in games, striking guys out and making adjustments as the games develop. What's not to like? Yeah, he got traded for a guy hitting .500.
    Sonny Gray--Two of his three starts were "meh", except he managed to keep the other guys from scoring. In between, he had a great start, fanning 13, and allowing only one run. The overall results are very good. He uses his entire array of pitches and gets outs, even when he doesn't have his best stuff.
    Joe Ryan--In another year, we'd be raving at his effectiveness. He is 3-0 with an ERA below 3. Ryan seems to have picked up velocity and is using his secondary stuff effectively.
    Jhoan Duran--Three for four in saves and the Twins won the game where he had a blown save. He allowed home runs in his last two outings, but mostly hitters don't have much chance against him. 
    Donovan Solano--He's stepped in at first base for Joey Gallo and all he's done is hit, albeit without much power. Solano is hitting .342 with an OPS of .811 in 41 plate appearances. Remember when he was 2-25 in spring training? Neither do I.
    Trevor Larnach--After being far and away the Twins' best offensive threat in the first week of the season, Larnach has cooled off substantially. His numbers are now a .260 batting average, .716 OPS, with only two extra-base hits. Larnach leads the club in strikeouts (19) and IMHO has been victimized a bit by sketchy called third strikes. He also leads the club in walks. I would expect some good things from Trevor in the coming week or so. He's due to bust out again. 
    Christian Vazquez--He has been very effective as a hitter in the bottom of the order. Batting average is currently .379 with an OPS of .954. The offense is a bonus added on to his solid work behind the plate. The catchers probably deserve some credit for the outstanding work of the pitching staff. 
    Jose Miranda--The results haven't been great or even okay for Miranda so far. Miranda has started all but one game at third base (DHed in that game) and performed satisfactorily in the field, but so far the hitting has been a disappointment. He's hitting just .212 with 5 RBI and only one extra-base hit (a double). The OPS stands at .512, with five walks and nine strikeouts. Miranda has too good of a hitting pedigree for his struggles to continue much longer.
    Nick Gordon--Coming off last year's success for Gordon, many thought he deserved a regular role. Injuries have provided Gordon with regular at-bats, but so far the results aren't there. The batting average stands at .103 with a .253 OPS. Gordon has hit in tough luck and didn't strike out until his 32nd plate appearance, but if more players get healthy, Nick might see a lot of bench time. Gordon has played second base and left field defensively and done a nice job, especially at second, despite not having a good defensive reputation. 
    The first 13 games have been very satisfying to this lifelong Twins fan. The pitching has been all that could be expected and more. They've managed a couple of late-game wins and looked like a solid defensive club. Certainly, the pitching will regress to the mean a bit and there will be some tough losses in the course of the long season. The club has managed well despite a lot of early-season injuries. It's my hope (and probably all Twins fans) that the injuries aren't as overwhelming as in the previous years and that this club can continue to do well. It should be fun!
  12. stringer bell
    There haven't been any exhibition games played yet, but all teams are in Spring Training and there aren't a bunch of free agents left to be signed. The Twins hope to bounce back from consecutive injury-scarred disappointing seasons and make the postseason. Here is my prediction for the 26-man roster that will play Opening Day in Kansas City on March 30th:
    Starting pitchers (5): Pablo Lopez, Sonny Gray, Joe Ryan, Tyler Mahle, Kenta Maeda. All five acquired by trade from other organizations. All but Ryan have injury concerns. First alternate starter figures is to Bailey Ober, with Louis Varland an Simeon Woods Richardson also waiting in the wings.
    Bullpen (8): Jorge Alcala, Jhoan Duran, Ronny Henriquez, Griffin Jax, Jorge Lopez, Jovani Moran, Emilio Pagan, Caleb Thielbar.  Alcala missed almost all of 2022 and it remains to be seen if he will be ready to contribute. The choices here for the last two spots in the 'pen are Moran (mostly effective last year with the Twins, less so in AAA) and Henriquez, who had a cup of coffee with the Twins after compiling less than dominant numbers in St. Paul. The choice of Henriquez is a pick to provide multiple inning outings from a bullpen member. Moran looks like he could take a step forward and be a late-inning arm, but he's not established. The last two cut (and two most likely to make the club) in my prediction are Trevor Megill and Danny Coulombe. Pitchers with options in the 'pen will most likely be up and down several times--that would include Megill, Henriquez and Moran and perhaps Alcala. 
    Catcher (2): Christian Vazquez, Ryan Jeffers. Really no competition here. The questions going forward are how will playing time be split up and if either Vazquez or Jeffers spends time as a DH. The Twins have three AAA catchers with major league experience--Tony Wolters, Grayson Greiner and Chance Sisco.
    Infield (6): Alex Kirilloff, Jorge Polanco, Carlos Correa, Jorge Miranda, Kyle Farmer, Donovan Solano. There are injury questions around both Polanco and Kirilloff. If either one is placed on the Injured List, Nick Gordon and perhaps Joey Gallo might get some infield time. Barring injury, it would be huge upset for someone else to make the team at the expense of the six infielders listed.
    Outfield (5): Byron Buxton, Joey Gallo, Nick Gordon, Max Kepler, Michael A. Taylor. Gallo and Gordon might see some time in the infield. Buxton is coming off knee surgery and may be built up slowly this year. There has been much speculation about Kepler's future with the Twins, but he's still here. Trevor Larnach (also coming off an injury) will probably have the opportunity to play himself onto the team. If there is a disabling position player injury in Spring Training, I would think Larnach makes the club as a DH/corner outfielder. Also in the mix is Matt Wallner, who made his big league debut last year in September. 
    There is a significant amount of change from last year. I am predicting that five players will make their Twins'  debut in Kansas City. There will be injuries and many more players will see time with the major league club. As many have commented, there is depth in the rotation and among the position players. There will be injuries and the depth will be tested at some points through the season. A lot of players will get a chance to show their skills before the season is over. 
    There aren't many surprises listed in these predictions. Personally, I think that a nearly set roster is a good thing. I can't wait for the games to start and see what this group of players can do.
  13. stringer bell
    Some time after the All-Star break, I was pondering how the Twins could fit all of their quality major league position players on the active roster. A few weeks later, baseball immortals Mark Contreras and Caleb Hamilton were on the big club. Fast forward to a crucial five-game series in Cleveland and the Twins were starting Bailey Ober, Josh Winder (both coming off injuries) and having Louie Varland make his second major league start and Jake Cave and Gilberto Celestino were considered regular starters. The season unraveled quickly and now the Twins look likely to finish below .500 and in third place in the weak AL Central. How did it happen? I have several answers--there have been enduring issues all year exacerbated by a rash of injuries, most of them season-ending. 
    Offense underperformed almost all year. Going back to the start of the season, after a rocky first couple of weeks, the Twins offense was sufficient to win a lot of game despite never scoring runs commensurate with their underlying numbers. Right now, the Twins are 18th in runs scored despite being 11th in OPS and 12th in homers. They have often been futile with runners in scoring position and they have been a terrible running bases as a team. I have seen many posters state that the team is terrible at fundamentals. I would submit that all teams draw their fans ire for not advancing runners and "beating the shift". Part of these problems is the way the Twins are built. They lack team speed and their is a lot of swing and miss in their collective game. With the changes made to limit homers, the Twins (IMHO) have suffered disproportionately. 
    Pitching regressed after overperforming early. The Twins seized first place in late April and held on to the top spot for most of the season bolstered by a pitching staff that performed better than expected. Despite seemingly having at least one and usually two or more guys in their rotation that were locks to go no more than five innings, they won a lot of games and obvious weaknesses at the back end of the bullpen were not evident in the win-loss record. Things unraveled here in slow motion. The failure of anyone but Jhoan Duran in late innings cost games (particularly to Cleveland). The extra innings assigned to the bullpen showed the lack of depth that so many short starts demanded. Back to statistics--the Twins currently are right in the middle of total runs allowed stats. Underlying stats (WHIP, Opponents BA and OPS and BB and K numbers) come out slightly below the mean. I think team defense has been slightly better than average, which has helped keep runs allowed acceptable. 
    Injuries (oh my!). The Twins lead the AL in total man-games on the Injured List. They went into the season with one player slated to miss time, so it isn't like there were a bunch of players already on the IL. Some of the injuries could be expected and put on the front office. The Twins obtained several pitchers with injury issues and this season have come up snake eyes with most of them missing significant time. 
    There have been plenty of position player injuries as well. Regular players Ryan Jeffers, Miguel Sano, Jorge Polanco, Alex Kirilloff, Trevor Larnach, Byron Buxton and Max Kepler have all missed significant portions of the season. Carlos Correa also missed over 20 games with COVID and a badly bruised finger. We all know Buxton hasn't made it through a season without spending time on the IL. The other guys would figure to be healthier than they have this year. 
    Dick Bremer characterized the Twins as developing a "slow leak" from June through August. The leak has been accelerated in the month of September and injuries are a factor in that. That said, even without the injuries, the Twins' flaws probably were too big to win the division. The club exhausted their depth and seeing Jermaine Palacios, Mark Contreras, Caleb Hamilton, Sandy Leon, Aaron Sanchez, and (second half) Devin Smeltzer "perform" in key situations just shows that the Twins have scraped bottom.
    I think some roster turnover is necessary. Among the position players, they need more guys who make contact, are better base runners and who have more speed. They need more left-right balance in corner outfielders. The front office needs to adjust their focus and bring in more durable players. It should be noted that the position players they brought in (Urshela, Sanchez and Correa) have been basically healthy. The problem has been with the pitchers. 
    I think there is too much talent to tear it down. If the club fails to compete next year, it is probably time to try something else, starting at the top. It won't be easy to win the Central next year, but there needs to be significant progress and better health.
     
     
     
  14. stringer bell
    The Twins will soon officially have a shortstop vacancy. Carlos Correa has informed the media (and I presume the Twins) that he will opt-out of the second year of his contract. One possibility, Jermaine Palacios, has been DFAed and claimed by the Detroit Tigers. The Twins have shown no tendency to use in-house options Jorge Polanco, Nick Gordon or Gio Urshela as a regular shortstop. Brooks Lee hasn't been with the organization a year out of college and looked pretty rough on defense in the minors.
    In addition, the Twins have shown a real lack of speed and base running ability. Finally, having a guy who is capable of playing center field in Byron Buxton's absence and filling in at the outfield corners would be ideal. I'm talking about a better hitter than Gilberto Celestino. 
    So, who am I calling on to step up? Austin Martin, of course. The guy was formerly listed as the Twins' top prospect and he played shortstop most of the season in Wichita. Regardless of his ability to play short, he has outfield experience and the requisite speed to cover center field. Moreover, he has profiled with excellent ob=base skills and was among the minor league leaders in stolen bases. Martin has exactly the skills that the club needs to add. Martin will have a chance to show what he has to offer in the Arizona Fall League.
    Obviously, Martin has a lot of making up to do. He hit and fielded poorly at AA for Wichita. He has slipped down the prospect ratings because of his performance and he hasn't found a power stroke. I don't hold any illusions that it would be a huge surprise for Martin to vault himself into  contention for an Opening Day spot particularly as a shortstop. I am saying that he has the particular skills that give him a path for quick advancement to the major leagues. It is all there in front of him.
    A more likely scenario for Martin would be for him to impress sufficiently that he would be in line for a recall either as an infielder or outfielder at some point during the 2023 season. I will be checking the AFL results in the hope that Austin Martin can restore his prospect status and eventually be a contributor for the Twins.
  15. stringer bell

    Thoughts on 2023

    By stringer bell,


    2023 early outlook
    Manfredball will be in full swing in 2023. No more shifts, a pitch clock and bigger bases. The Twins will need to adjust to the changes and they will probably have to adjust more than most. The larger bases will make infield hits and stolen bases more common. The Twins will need to find a way to get more speed in their lineup and to be better base runners. They have been dreadful running the bases and have yielded oodles of stolen bases and that is not all on their catchers. At the very least, adding players with plus speed will be needed and a renewed emphasis on elements of "small ball" will have to be done.
    I am looking to 2023 because I believe the 2022 season is basically over. A large number of the Twins' top position players aren't playing (Buxton, Polanco, Kepler) and many viewed as emerging (Jeffers, Kirilloff, Larnach) aren't playing either. Carlos Correa has been an offensive disapointment. Add in that Max Kepler and Gary Sanchez have been playing at replacement player level and it is a near miracle that the Twins are still in a pennant race. They've had plenty of help from Cleveland and Chicago, but it appears to me that it will be a surprise if the Twins finish higher than third in the weak Central Division.
    I think there will be enough talent for the Twins to contend in 2023. A bullpen that includes Jhoan Duran, Jorge Lopez, Caleb Thielbar and Griffin Jax will be a far cry better than the bully that began the season in 2022. Add in prospective starters Joe Ryan, Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda, Tyler Mahle and later Chris Paddack with guys like Louis Varland, Simeon Woods-Richardson, Josh Winder and Bailey Ober ready to step in, perhaps there wouldn't be as many short starts and so much pressure on the bullpen. 
    There is position player talent as well. Jose Miranda has shown himself to be a major league hitter with perhaps a ceiling of star, Nick Gordon has developed into a competent major leaguer with positional versatility. Jeffers, Larnach and Kirilloff showed glimpses of what they could be before they were sidelined by injuries. Byron Buxton played most of the season on one leg and yet was valuable. If only he could get his health right for a season, the Twins become a different team. If Correa comes back, he is a fine ballplayer at a crucial position. If not, the Twins have sufficient funds to upgrade the team (pitching staff or position plauers). It is obvious that there will be more injuries, hopefully not as much as 2022, and also that some players will no longer be Twins in the coming year. 
    Circling back to the mark that Commissioner Manfred has made on baseball, with a new Collective Bargaining Agreement in place, MLB is now going to recognize minor leaguers as a union. My fervent hope is that minor league players will get upgraded treatment in future years. Time will tell on that.
  16. stringer bell

    Frustration

    By stringer bell,


    Injury List
    I just fed my obsession by playing golf for about the fifteenth day out of sixteen. Well, it wasn't pretty and I left the course pretty frustrated. Before I got home, I had a chance to read the latest on Twins Daily and Major League Trade Rumors. The Twins will face the high-flying Yankees with three red-hot pitchers going for the Evil Empire. The Twins will counter with Cole Sands, Chris Archer and Dylan Bundy. I don't think I've ever seen such a lopsided matchup in favor of the visiting team when both teams are leading their divisions. Ever.
    As frustrated as I am with my golf game, the Twins continuing use of the Injured List and granting days off for their most dynamic talent provides me and plenty of other Twins fans with continual angst. It is like they are trying to win with one arm behind their back. 
    Let's examine the components of my frustration; Injured List (pitchers)--A key bullpen arm (Alcala) has missed two months with an arm issue. That happens and all teams run into that on occasion. A marginal projected contributor (Dobnak) has missed the entire season so far and isn't close to coming back. Again not unexpected and all teams run into this. Currently, Gray (pectoral), Ryan (COVID) and Ober (groin) are all out. This is where the frustration builds for me. These aren't arm injuries and both of the injuries were borderline enough that the player wasn't disabled immediately. It seems that maximum caution has been used in all three cases. But these three are the top three starters on the team and none of them will face the Yankees this week. Beyond the immediate frustration is the fact that the team has been very conservative in extending the starts of all of their starters, yet here come the injuries. Add the cherry on top of a COVID case for their top young starter that has caused him to miss about three weeks and you start to wonder, what will happen next. One (frustrating) thing we can count on--there will be more short starts when the Injured List guys return to the rotation. Again, it seems that it is a constant, not the exception. 
    Part two--position players. Having players who are breaking out miss time to injury and illness happens, but the Twins seem to have that as a rule. Gilberto Celestino, Kyle Garlick, Trevor Larnach and Royce Lewis all seemed on the way to proving they were valuable major league players and all were detoured to the injured list for a period of time. The Buxton management scheme seems to have accomplished one thing--make Byron Buxton an ordinary ballplayer. We've seen little of the blazing speed (don't "open it up" unless you absolutely have to) and he's no longer even causes anxiety for teams when he's on base. Buxton has only played about half the time in center field and when I last looked, he wasn't even a plus defender this year (that is a big portion of his value). Buck has hit homers at a prolific rate, but he's not getting on base enough and, as mentioned, he is not displaying many of his off the charts tools. Next Carlos Correa. After a slow start, Correa has shown himself to be a premium player, but because of a bad bruise when he was hit by a pitch and a case of COVID, he will have missed over a third of the Twins games to date when he returns. The COVID absence wouldn't have been so bad, but his heir apparent was hurt the day before he was diagnosed, so the Twins have used a career minor leaguer as their shortstop (Palacios has looked like a big leaguer. Good for him!). 
    From what I can tell the Blue Jays have all of their top position players and top starters healthy and playing every day. Same for the Yankees. Since the middle of April, that hasn't been the case with the Twins. Why can't we have nice things? Agree? Give some feedback if you'd like. Go Twins!
  17. stringer bell

    The Merry Merry Month of May

    By stringer bell,


    Statistics
    The Twins finished the month of May with an 18-12 record. Given the schedule they faced in that month, 18 wins isn't exactly dominating. They closed with a 4-5 record in their last nine games playing bottom-dwellers in those last games. 
    Here are the stats for May per ESPN. https://www.espn.com/mlb/team/stats/_/name/min/split/41/table/batting/sort/OPS/dir/desc  and  https://www.espn.com/mlb/team/stats/_/type/pitching/name/min/split/41      
    Just a few highlights. Luis Arraez, Trevor Larnach, and Gary Sanchez had fine months. Arraez was an OBP machine. Trevor Larnach had a fine month, but only played in 16 games due to injury. Lowlights: Buxton, Jeffers, and Miranda. Pitching highlights included excellent months from Sonny Gray, Joe Ryan, Devin Smeltzer and Jhoan Duran. Disappointments included Chris Archer and Yennier Cano. 
    The team outscored their opponents 137-120. The hitters walked 105 times, while Twins' pitchers walked 83 hitters, they struck out 256 batters while the hitters struck out 231 times. The Twins allowed 249 hits while getting 266 hits from their offense. The home run discrepency was 30-27 in favor of the Al Central leaders. 
    Looking at stats provides a little longer view of the season and the month. My view of the month was that there were some interludes where they were very good, but they finished the month playing less than their best. Injuries and COVID-19 have flipped the roster sideways. Byron Buxton needs to either get right or get well and the pitching staff needs health or reinforcements.
  18. stringer bell
    Twins fans can take a breath and be very satisfied with where the squad is in the standings and how well they have played in the last 10 games. A 9-1 record in the last 10 games tends to relieve our anxieties. However, I think it is human nature to find something to worry about. Befitting the Twins 13-9 (good, not great) record, there are things to worry about--Miguel Sano's poor start, unsustainable success from youngsters and reclamation projects in the starting rotation and, of course, injuries. My greatest concern is the back end of the bullpen. 
    With the expanded rosters, the bullpens have been both used more and used differently in April. The roster will be reduced by two today and pitching staff will be limited to 14 after today's game. So far, the disappointments have been confined to veterans. Tyler Duffey failed in a save opportunity and took a loss when he entered a game in the middle innings with a lead and gave it up. Caleb Thielbar has strung together several poor outings, featuring his lack of command--both walks and falling behind in counts--and although his numbers are okay, Emilio Pagan has given up a lead and had two ulcer-inducing saves as the de-facto closer. The title of this blog entry points out that all three of these guys are over 30. I do want to point out that two other 30+ bullpen guys have been very good--Danny Coulombe and particularly Joe Smith.
    I think that the track records of Pagan, Thielbar, and Duffey will allow their manager and pitching coach to give them some rope. Duffey and Thielbar started slowly in 2021, but performed better as the season went along. Pitching for San Diego, Pagan went the other way, as did practically the entire team. Duffey and Thielbar haven't closed games regularly. Pagan saved 20 games for the 2019 Rays and seems to be the preferred option for the manager right now. It doesn't make sense to me to trust any of these guys unconditionally at this point. Jhoan Duran would seem to be an obvious answer and perhaps Jorge Alcala could provide another reliable high-velocity arm in the second half of the season. To me, the Twins need to add someone to the mix that isn't on the roster right now. 
  19. stringer bell

    Where We Stack Up

    By stringer bell,


    Early statistics
    As I occasionally do, I checked MLB statistics today. I wanted to see how the team stacked up to the rest of Major League Baseball. Most teams have played about 10 games, so we have an idea of trends, although some things are out of whack. Baltimore has good pitching? Cleveland has the top team BA in the American League? Nah, those things won't last. What about the Twins? Well, with a 4-6 record and and -6 run differential, I figured the Twins would profile poorly on offense and middle of the road on the run prevention side, Here's what I found.
    Pitching. Far from a disaster, but not league average. The Twins are 20th (of 30) in team ERA and 15th in runs per game. That difference is explained by only allowing three unearned runs despite 8 errors in 10 games. They haven't played any extra inning games and unearned runs really happen there due to the "ghost runner". Other stats--23rd in walks per nine innings, 21st in strikeouts per nine innings, 15th in Opponents Batting Average and 20th in WHIP (walks and hits per inning pitched). The starting staff has been better than expected, but the bullpen ERA is over 4.50. This looks like pretty good luck to this point--they're allowing more balls than average to be put in play, walking more than league average and still at the median for allowing base runners and runs.
    Hitting. The only stat where the Twins are significantly better than league average is home runs. They are sixth in the league in homers per plate appearance. Other key stats--third in strikeouts per plate appearance, 25th in team OPS, 22nd in runs per game. Hitters are more predictable and projectable that pitchers. The Twins have been projected to be a good offensive team, probably enough to make up for their pitching deficiencies and hang around .500, so far that isn't the case. 
    To summarize, it is early. The offense has been a major disappointment, but will improve. Pitching has been better than expected, but there are some number that predict a downturn. After playing three straight 90-win teams (from 2021), the Twins will face a less daunting schedule in the upcoming weeks. Hopefully, the record and stats improve over that time.
  20. stringer bell

    The (Almost) Complete Opening Day Roster

    By stringer bell,


    Opening Day Roster
    As of this moment there are 30 rostered players and 1 non-rostered player in camp for the Twins. Of the rostered players, Jovani Martin has been told he would be optioned to St. Paul and Cory Stashak will stay in Florida and go on the Injured List. That includes 16 pitchers and 13 position players. The non-roster player is Kyle Garlick, who got a year's service time last year as a backup outfielder who was later injured and never returned to the major league active roster. I assume that the Twins will, in fact, carry 16 pitchers and will either sent Garlick directly to St. Paul or DFA someone and demote Brent Rooker. Either way, the squad will have to be down to 13 pitchers four weeks from today.
    First of all, this is quite a makeover from the squad that opened in Milwaukee just over a year ago. The starting rotation is 100% turned over, and there are four holdovers in the bullpen. There will be a new DH and new starters at catcher, shortstop, third base and left field. If healthy, three of the Twins starting players project to be elite (Correa, Buxton) or well above average (Polanco). Two highly regarded graduates of the Twins' farm system figure to make their first Opening Day starts, two former All-Stars look to rebound as well as two solid performers in past years who fell on hard times in 2021. There are a lot of ifs, but there is a chance that the lineup can be outstanding. 
    The pitching staff features a rotation where Sonny Gray is the best bet to succeed. After him, the next two guys, Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober, both started last year in the minors. They combined for 17 big league starts (12 by Ober). The other two guys in the rotation as of today are reclamation projects, roughly equivalent to last year's acquisitions of Matt Shoemaker and JA Happ. The bullpen is a mish-mash of proven arms, potential, journeymen, and converted starters who may or may not last beyond May 1. Probably all year the bullpen will be asked to contribute more than four innings per game, making a 13-man staff a necessity for the bulk of the season. Maybe the most encouraging thing about the pitching staff is the talent in the upper minors, both starters and relievers, so that the Twins might be able to weather a rash or injuries or ineffectiveness from the guys currently on the active roster.
    Most fans who more than casually follow the Twins view the pitching staff with concern (I know I do), but I see several other several other stumbling blocks/question marks that must be hurdled in order for the Twins to have a successful season (make the playoffs and win at least one game). 1) Betting big on unproven talent. Ryan Jeffers played in 85 games last year and compiled almost  300 plate appearances. He did not break the Mendoza Line (.199) and had a puny OPS of .670. The Twins see Jeffers as a better hit-tool version of Mike Zunino, and maybe he will deliver that kind of production. Alex Kirilloff was a Twins' #1 draft choice. He profiles as a fine hitter and excellent defensive first baseman. So far, he's suffered a lot of injuries and only managed about 230 plate appearances for the Twins. It remains to be seen if the wrist he injured earlier, which eventually shut him down for the season will hold up. If so, the Twins think he could be a combination of Will Clark and Mark Grace as a long-term first baseman. High projection--hit like Will Clark, field like Mark Grace. Low (but healthy) projection--hit like Grace, field like Clark. Kirilloff is a work in progress as an outfielder. There's a gamble in counting on either or both of these players for 2022. 2) The Gary Sanchez Problem--Sanchez had fallen out of favor with the Yankees due to his subpar (I'm being kind) defense and falloff at the plate. He profiles similar to Jeffers as a hitter and offers insufficient value as a DH. Sanchez will get an 8-figure salary in arbitration so it is unlikely that he will only be in the lineup once or twice a week. The Twins already have enough DH candidates so Sanchez clogs up that position. Today, the Twins DFAed the third catcher on their 40-man roster, so it is likely that Jeffers and Sanchez will be the only catchers on the club, at least for now. 3) As a roster, the team is long-ball dependent and will strike out a ton. Sano and Sanchez, in particular are noted for high K percentages. Team speed is another issue. Buxton is one of the fastest players in MLB and Nick Gordon's wheels are perhaps his best asset, but beyond that there are a lot of glaciers in the lineup. 4) Too many DHs. Many are calling for Luis Arraez to be the DH a majority of the time in 2022. He is a man without a position, functional at second and short. Miguel Sano has played first base for two seasons, including the COVID year and has shown to be well below average (again, being kind) at the position and, as mentioned earlier, Sanchez figures to get DH at-bats as well. Brent Rooker is another in the mode of Sanchez and Sano--right handed hitter, plus power, low contact, poor defense--giving the Twins far too many guys to stay off the field defensively.
    I wouldn't be surprised to see another move or two before the team lines up on Opening Day. Adding an outfielder who could hit left handed pitching and play above-average defense in left field would be good. The door is also open for better pitching than the current crew. We will have answers in three days. It's always good when baseball is back. 
  21. stringer bell
    After the lockout, big trades and a huge free agent signing (who knew Joe Smith would be available?), the Twins are zeroing in on Opening Day 2022. They will carry 28 players for the month of April, allowing additional ramping up for pitchers. I don't claim to all-knowing, but I have listened to and watched Twins baseball since Calvin moved the team to Met Stadium. The roster I'm predicting will include 15 pitchers, about as many as the Twins used in some full seasons in the 60s. Okay, here goes:
    PITCHERS: 15--Five starters, three openers/multi-inning, seven bullpen. Starters--Sonny Gray, Dylan Bundy, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Josh Winder. Comment: There is still a decent chance that the Twins will add a rotation piece either by trade or free agency. I hope they do. This would appear to be the year that a pipeline to the majors is established with prospects graduating to fill rotation spots long-term. Openers/Multi-inning relievers--Griffin Jax, Lewis Thorpe, Jhoan Duran. Comment: This is the group impacted positively by the expanded rosters. All three have been primarily starters since coming to the Twins organization. Due to ineffectiveness and a closing window, Jax and Thorpe have been designated relievers (Thorpe is also out of options) and Duran is coming back from a season where he logged less than 20 innings. Duran is a top prospect who might have 2022 as a bullpen year and then return in 2023 as a starter or he may become a full-time reliever now for the balance of his career. Bullpen--Jharel Cotton, Jhon Romero, Tyler Duffey, Joe Smith, Caleb Thielbar, Jorge Alcala, Taylor Rogers. Comment: Cotton and Romero are pure guesses for two spots in the bullpen. Cody Stashak and Jovani Moran are also candidates among the rostered pitchers. A non-roster guy or two could be a candidate to take a spot, but the Twins have a stacked 40-man roster for now. In particular I've liked what I've seen out of Juan Minaya since midsummer of 2021. Barring injury, at some point in 2022 he will be pitching for the Twins. I just don't think he will be there on Opening Day. 
    CATCHERS: 3-Ryan Jeffers, Gary Sanchez, Jose Godoy. Comment: Godoy makes the club as a third catcher because I think Gary Sanchez will be used fairly often as a DH. Rocco doesn't overuse catchers, he'll basically alternate Jeffers and Sanchez behind the plate, but if Sanchez is DHing as much as 25% of the time, having a third catcher would make sense. Godoy appears to be functional, but not a candidate for everyday play. 
    INFIELDERS: 6-Miguel Sano, Jorge Polanco, Luis Arraez, Carlos Correa, Nick Gordon, Gio Urshela. Comment: Top prospect Jose Miranda doesn't make it here, although after last year's breakout, he really should. I've listed Kirilloff as an outfielder, he'll also get a lot of time in the infield. Gordon might log some time in the outfield as well. Four players at second, short and third--Arraez, Polanco, Correa, Urshela--should cover almost all the starts leaving Gordon without much playing time. Sano will DH a considerable amount.
    OUTFIELDERS: 4--Alex Kirilloff, Trevor Larnach, Byron Buxton, Max Kepler. Comment: Brent Rooker misses the cut here in my estimation due to his lack of flexibility and fielding deficiencies. Larnach is the better defender and hits left handed. If the Twins are using Sano at DH (and Kirilloff at first) it opens considerable playing time for Larnach in left field. I also wouldn't be surprised to see the club pick up a right handed outfielder, who can run and play defense to add to the Opening Day roster. 
     
     

  22. stringer bell

    Settling in at Shortstop

    By stringer bell,


    Shortstop
    The Minnesota Twins are completing one of their most disappointing seasons in their history in one week. While they will only win around 70 games, they have major league talent under team control at every position except one--shortstop. Andrelton Simmons was acquired on a one-year deal and has shown himself to be a competent (not all-world) defender and has had a putrid offensive season. The consensus at this site is that he should not and will not return in 2022. By all measures, the 2021 Simmons has been among the worst hitters in MLB. Good luck elsewhere Simba. It didn't work out in Minnesota.
    Who replaces Simmons as the everyday SS next year? I think the question is interesting. The Twins can go several different directions, including moving Jorge Polanco back to short. I would think that any shortstop decision has to be made with an eye on some of the Twins top prospects. Royce Lewis will miss all of 2021 following knee surgery. Lewis has the potential to be the kind of five-tool star that Byron Buxton has teased us with when he has been healthy. Lewis also has a minor league resume that is considerably short of his potential and there are murmurs that he won't end up as a shortstop. Another top prospect is Austin Martin, obtained in the José Berríos trade, He also has a history at shortstop, but exclusively played outfield for Wichita since he was acquired by the Twins. Martin seems to have a much more refined hit tool than Lewis, with a high OBP and relatively low strikeouts. He hasn't demonstrated big power in the minors, however. Do the Twins believe either of these guys will be their everyday shortstop next year? I really doubt it. Lewis has almost no experience in the high minors and has essentially missed two years of baseball and while it is quite likely that Martin will make his major league debut next season, his most likely position will be outfield. A third minor league option is Wichita's regular shortstop this season, Jermaine Palacios. He has had a power surge and has been a shortstop through his minor league career. Could he make the jump? At least to start 2022, I think all three guys are longshots to even be on the major league roster.
    Of course, there are two possible candidates on the big league roster. Polanco has almost 500 games played at short, and while he isn't league average with the leather, he is a proven hitter. Nick Gordon has impressed, but despite playing a lot of shortstop in the minors, he's only logged 43 innings at short in this, his rookie year, with the Twins. Again, I have my doubts. However, I think the readiness of a replacement from the organization is the key to determining what type of player the Twins will seek to fill the void at shortstop.
    If they are convinced that one of their prospects will be an everyday shortstop in the majors by 2023, then the focus would be on more of a stopgap player, perhaps someone who might start the season as a regular, but could evolve into a utility player. If the feeling is that none of the prospects in the high minors can cut it as an everyday shortstop by 2023, then they have to sign someone with a bit more permanence. Signing someone from outside the organization for more than one year also would seem to create a glut of major league players. Sano and Kirilloff at first, Polanco, Arraez and Gordon at second, Donaldson at third with also Arraez capable at the hot corner. Add in that their near-certain Minor League Player of the Year, Jose Miranda, can fill first second and third and there seems to be too many players for the infield and DH positions. 
    One additional thought--while he didn't get much love from Twins fans, I think the Twins missed Ehire Adrianza, or at least someone who could fill the role of Adrianza. Moving Polanco to shortstop whenever Simmons was hit for or had a day off seemed to disrupt the entire infield. Having a true backup shortstop who could fill in at other positions would have been a good thing for the Twins' roster. Having such a player in addition to Adrianza and Gordon might make the position player part of the roster very crowded. The frontline defense for the Twins was pretty good, but it seemed whenever a starter was subbed out, it would be for an inferior defender, sometimes weakening more than one position.
    I think that there is enough talent on the position player side for the Twins to contend, perhaps as soon as next year. To achieve the dream of contending, they would have to come up with pitching, but the late-season performances of Ryan and Ober offer hope that they might be pieces of the puzzle next year and that the minor leagues could possibly start producing good quality pitching from within the organization. 
    There are decisions to be made. I don't see any clear path to solving the shortstop position problem, but there have to be answers somewhere. Falvey and Levine need to make the right choices in several areas to help bring the club back. Their jobs may depend on the choices they make.
     

  23. stringer bell
    The Twins play their 30th game this afternoon and are currently 11-18. They've been beset by bad luck, bad play and have taken a beating with two rule changes (extra-inning runner on second, 7-inning games for doubleheaders). How do they get out of this funk? I'm sure many in the organization will preach patience and they may be right, but that isn't any fun. Here are some possibilities for change that might help the team:
     
    Role change. We've already seen one role change. At least temporarily Alexander Columé is not going to see high-leverage innings. Columé has been a huge disappointment and even when he has worked scoreless innings, he's been shaky. The problem is that taking Columé out of high leverage situations leaves the Twins with few good options, particularly when going 6 or more innings for a starter is a rarity. I think one pitching role change that should be made is to use Taylor Rogers in non-save high leverage situations as happened early in 2019 and sometimes use him for multiple innings. Rogers shouldn't be used in back-to-back days. Moving Alcala to high leverage situations seems to be gradually happening. If things continue to go bad, it makes sense to have him give a shot as a closer. Position players--it seems to me that both Polanco and Kepler should have their roles diminished from full-time regular to something different. Kepler can play a corner and center and Polanco has played short and second, maybe Max should be slotted as the fourth OF or at least platooned with Garlick. I think giving Polanco the role of three-position infielder wouldn't be a stretch. He could get some at-bats as a platoon partner for my choice of regular second baseman (Arraez) and left-handed at-bats in place of Simmons and when Donaldson takes a day off (or is injured).
     
    Promotions/demotions. Assuming that Alex Kirilloff is in the big leagues to stay, when healthy the Twins have one extra position player and someone will have to be sent to the minor leagues or released. Discussion has centered on Jake Cave. Several others could be sent down and that doesn't begin to discuss the pitching staff. Many pitchers'performances could merit their demotion.
     
    Trades. It is unlikely that anyone will make a significant trade this early in the year. However, the Twins would be a good candidate for a major trade nearer the trade deadline. They have some redundancy (left handed hitting corner outfielders) and holes that need patching (bullpen, perhaps catching) and many candidates to trade. They also have a lot of players who would be free agents after this season. I do wonder if someone who was considered a cornerstone (Polanco, Kepler, Sanó) could be traded. None of these guys have performed remotely well so far but an uptick could make them more marketable. I have to believe that the Twins will bring in new pitchers either in the bullpen or the rotation. What they have at this time in the bullpen just hasn't worked.
     
    Personally, I think the Twins will need to do a little bit of everything to turn the corner. I am a proponent of changing roles. I think Kepler and Polanco could be candidates to have limited roles. The Twins need to add at least one strong arm in the bullpen, most likely by trade and Trevor Larnach is reputed to be nearly as much a sure thing as a hitter as Alex Kirilloff, plus he is a better outfielder. There is too much talent for the club to continue to play sub.400 baseball, but I think they need to make changes immediately.
  24. stringer bell
    Nelson Cruz has been everything the Twins could have expected for 2019 and 2020. He's stayed relatively healthy, hit both with power and for average, he's been available to play except for two ten-day stays on the Injured List and he has been a team leader and mentor for all players on his team. Cruz has been far and away the best hitter both last year and this year.
     
    Despite all of his contributions, I am not sure my favorite team should bring back Nelson Cruz for the 2021 season. There is a truism that it is better to move off a player a year too soon than a year too late. Father Time is looking hard at Nelson Cruz and at some point he will slow down. Actually, I wonder if he might have started slowing down at this point. Cruz is striking out more lately and not hitting with as much power as he did in the first half of this shortened season. Cruz has managed to keep his batting average up, but he only has three homers and 3 RBI in the 20 days of September. I don't know what will happen next year, but I would think that there is a chance Cruz' production will drop, perhaps dramatically.
     
    Also to consider is what the roster will look like next year and how Nelson would fit in it. The team has probably three corner OF/DH/1B prospects ready to play next year. Keeping Cruz would mean that for 90% of the games that Cruz isn't injured, he will fill the DH role. That leaves no real place for Kirilloff, Rooker and Larnach. Letting Eddie Rosario go could allow playing time for one of these guys, but still leaves a bit of a logjam. Using the DH spot as a half day off for regulars might be a better plan.
     
    Nelson Cruz has provided 1.7 WAR this year after 55 games, which would translate into over 5 WAR for a full season. His OPS this year is 1.026, just down from last year's 1.032. Cruz's OPS+ is actually higher this year 178 vs. 168 and he achieved 4.2 WAR for the full season last year. He has served as a role model for the younger players, particularly Hispanic players.It would certainly be a tough call to let him leave the Twins, but I don't think it is out of the question.
  25. stringer bell
    MLB and the MLBPA agreed yesterday to accommodations for a shortened 2020 major league schedule. Many things are to be determined, especially since there is no firm date for the season to begin. I choose to be optimistic that there will be baseball this summer, perhaps without crowds in the stands. One thing agreed to unofficially was an expanded roster. The number that has been published is 29. I am going with that information and will now name the 29 players I expect will be on the roster for Opening Day 2020 whenever that happens.
     
    Pitchers--(15) Berríos, Maeda, Odorizzi, Bailey, Chacín, Dobnak, Wisler, May, Clippard, Stashak, Duffey, Romo, Littell, Thielbar, Rogers
     
    Catchers--(3) Garver,Avila, Astudillo
     
    Infielders--(6) Sanó, Arraez, Polanco, Donaldson, Adrianza, Gonzalez
     
    Outfielders--(4) Rosario, Buxton, Kepler, Cave
     
    Designated Hitter--(1) Cruz
     
    This would take the current roster, subtract Rich Hill and add both Thielbar and Chacín. My reasoning for this roster includes that the schedule will probably have doubleheaders and perhaps will fill some off days with games, meaning that a larger pitching staff in today's environment would be essential. I have included both Dobnak and Chacín, who have been competing for a starting spot and assume that either the Twins will go with a six-man rotation or that one of Dobnak or Chacín will be a "long man" in the bullpen. I assumed that if the staff were expanded by three that the Twins would add a lefty, even though specialists will be minimized by the three-batter rule. Having an occasional different look could be helpful.
     
    The fight for the 13th position player is over--they both win. I had thought Astudillo's ability to make contact and play many positions would win out over Cave's general competency, but with an additional position player spot available, both make the team.
     
    As for the pitching staff, it is murkier. First of all, Rich Hill has stated he could be ready to pitch in June. Suddenly, he might miss only a couple weeks or perhaps no time at all. Michael Pineda has two-thirds of his sixty game suspension to serve. I would expect that his suspension is prorated, much as service time will be prorated. If the season is 100 games, his suspension would be 25 games. There is nothing official, but that is what I will go with. I am assuming that Hill won't quite be ready when the season starts and that Pineda will have at least three weeks of suspension to serve.
     
    I think the Twins have seen enough of Chacín to want to see a bit more. He may not survive the return of Pineda and debut of Hill, but I don't think the Twins want to give up on him quite yet. Dobnak has pitched the best in exhibition games of those competing for a spot and he was outstanding last year in his brief time with the Twins. Wisler and Stashak both make the bullpen and there still is room for a lefty. I picked Thielbar over the others--Barnes, Clay and Coulumbe all had some moments, but I think Thielbar has pitched better. Hardy just had TJ surgery so he is out for 2020.
     
    I think a 29-man roster demonstrates the depth that the Twins possess. In other years, all of the players mentioned would easily make the Opening Day roster and more would have a chance. I have not added Devin Smeltzer to the 29, but believe he could be an option to pitch several doubleheader games if that happens. I don't really see him as a reliever and he has an option to use, so if he were called on to pitch as a long man, he could be shuttled to Rochester this year.
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