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stringer bell

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Blog Entries posted by stringer bell

  1. stringer bell
    Since the Twins won last Sunday to go 4-2, they have lost five consecutive games and fallen to the basement of the AL Central. More to the point, they now have one of the worst run differentials in the AL and their offensive, defensive, and pitching stats are among the worst, as well.
     
    There haven't been many positive surprises and there have been disappointments throughout the roster. The #1 disappointment has to be Aaron Hicks, hitting a microscopic .057 with an OPS of .155. Vanimal has had three starts--one satisfactory, one substandard and one dreadful. Florimon has hit a little, but has been poor in the field, being charged with three errors and he should have been charged with one or two more, plus Morneau has saved him a couple more throwing errors. Liam Hendriks hasn't gotten over the hump and was demoted, Pelfrey had one poor start and Twins' lefthanded relievers have yielded two grand slams.
     
    The weather has been miserable for the Twins, with little hope for great improvement there for the next week or so. I doubt that there will be many sellouts for the rest of the season.
     
    It looks to me like a lot of changes are on the horizon. There is a full 40-man roster with several players not on the roster in line to be recalled--Colabello, Walters, Deduno, Perez, and Harden and perhaps an outfielder--while there is a lineup of pitchers to be tried in the rotation. I predict that Wilken Ramirez will be DFAed within a month, probably Pedro Florimon, as well. The starting rotation should remain unsettled with several equivalent hurlers trying to nail down a spot. Continuing losses likely will mean trades of players who are over 30 and have trade value, but probably not until close to the trading deadline.
     
    The Twins' two top farm teams have also been effected by weather, and also aren't winning much with exceptions being Colabello and Arcia at Rochester, and not much encouraging pitching at the top levels. The two A-league teams look stacked. There are a lot of prospects and so far a lot of winning has happened in Cedar Rapids and Fort Myers. It is still very early, but the signs aren't good. Maybe some wins and warmer weather will make the situation look less dire.
  2. stringer bell
    Yes, I heard the postgame show which pointed out the Twins were above .500 for the first time since 2010. I have seen the positive comments about the starting pitchers and their success so far this season. I do believe this team is improved and I think they are due for better luck after two disastrous seasons where any luck they had was bad luck.
     
    This is a club that will be hard-pressed to exceed 70 wins without more than one positive surprise. Three full games have yielded 17 strikeouts in 27 innings. That is the opposite of a collection of "power arms". The three games were played in cold conditions, with tough lighting (sun and shadows) and with a strong breeze. The conditions helped the pitchers on both sides, without a doubt. Of course, those same conditions hurt the Twins hitters. It would figure that they will do better with higher temperatures, lighter winds and more normal lighting.
     
    There are positive developments. The team has gotten production from their bench players. Justin Morneau appears to be healthy and should put up good numbers. There are other veterans who should again be productive. However, the team has many, many question marks and it is doubtful that each question will be answered positively.
     
    Some observations: 1) Spring training doesn't matter much at all. Worley, Correia, and Pelfrey all looked like they were pitching batting practice, but now that the games count we see they are big leaguers. 2) I do like a few "scrap heap" players that the Twins have picked up--last year Burton established himself, this year perhaps Pressly might prove that he can be a bullpen arm for this year and the future. Casey Fien did well last year and has pitched well in a couple of game situations. 3) Maybe it is the weather, but the defense needs to improve. Mauer let too many balls get by him and made a couple of tailing throws to second, Florimon booted a ball and made several poor throws. Several balls eluded Plouffe at third, and their range on the corners of the outfield is going to be limited. 4) This season still is going to be about players establishing themselves in the field--Plouffe, Parmelee, Hicks, Dozier, and Florimon (or maybe Escobar)--or on the mound (Hendriks, perhaps De Vries, Gibson, Meyer, May).
     
    Winning two out of three against the AL champs is nice, but the glow will fade quickly if the team plays poorly on the road. I am happy to see wins and competitive games.
  3. stringer bell

    Fun So Far

    By stringer bell,

    Six games is only the first step in a marathon, but the Twins have been more entertaining than I though they would be. I don't think any of the question marks have been answered, but they have managed to be in every game and managed to squeak out three one-run wins out of the first six games.
     
    I am not getting my hopes up, but there are a lot of things that make this club worth watching. In no particular order, here are some observations I have after one week of baseball.
     
    JJ Hardy--Is there something wrong with his arm? His throwing motion looks awkward and all of his throws looked like changeups. Also, is he that slow or was he not running out of the box on the slow roller to Florimon?
     
    Brian Dozier--He made the perfect sacrifice bunt with runners on first and second, forcing Manny Machado to field the ball and guaranteeing the advance of both runners. Dozier's turns at second have been outstanding. He's played a tremendous second base. He needs a couple of multiple hit games to get the BA up.
     
    Pedro Hernandez--He is lefthanded and breathing. Actually, I think he has a chance to be okay. Too many walks today, but his minor league history suggests that shouldn't be a problem. His three strikeouts in five innings is the best of the starters, I believe.
     
    The Twins have allowed only two homers in six games. If that keeps up, they have a chance to win a lot more games. KC looks like they're swinging well, so the club will have to make a great effort to keep the HR number low.
     
    Maybe Aaron Hicks will warm up after getting a meaningful RBI single to help win the game today.
  4. stringer bell
    I DVRed the game yesterday and watched most of it last night. While I didn't see some key events, I heard about them on the radio.
     
    The Twins had a chance to beat the Tigers but came up short in key at-bats. They also were hurt by bases advanced by the plodding Tigers.
     
    What went right: 1) Worley outlasted Verlander. Even though he was the losing pitcher he managed to go six innings and reached the threshold for a "Quality Start". 2) Fien struck out the side in the seventh and it was the top of the order. 3) The offensive approach allowed the Twins to only face Verlander for five innings. 4) Worley had the Tigers hitting the ball on the ground recording something like 15 ground ball outs, including one outstanding play from Florimon.
     
    What went wrong: 1) Four Twins came up in a game situation and only one (Doumit) brought in a run. Plouffe and Parmelee had a great chance to knot the game or put the Twins ahead in the 7th inning and failed. 2) Duensing and Roenicke combined to yield a key insurance run in the 8th, after the Twins had closed to within one run. 3) Defensive misplays and failure to make plays cost the Twins dearly--a) Peralta was a dead duck with a good throw and tag, Mauer's throw tailed and Florimon failed to catch the ball. Two wild pitches allowed runners to advanced and each scored as a result of that. Mauer blocked a low pitch, but couldn't locate it and Roenicke's went between the wickets. c) Florimon booted a fairly routine grounder and Dozier might have left too early on Torii's hit and run roller in the first inning. d) Worley allowed too many baserunners, which put pressure on the defense and it never allowed Vanimal to get in rhythm.
  5. stringer bell
    Here we are on May 9th and the Twins have the best record in Major League Baseball. They have had some low moments, but mostly everything has gone as well as, or better than, expected. Chatter about the Twins has been positive, especially after dominating a bad Baltimore team and then winning a series (and the season series) against the Houston Astros. A 4-2 road trip, including a dominant sweep in Toronto have put the Twins a season-high 11 games over .500.
     
    I doubt everything will continue to come up roses for the Twins, it never does. They will suffer injuries and players will slump or disappoint. Even in the best of years, these things happen. However, it appears that in most respects, the team assembled by the relatively new executive team of Falvey and Levine is set up well to handle struggles and snags when they occur.
     
    Let's look at what has transpired in the mostly cold and wet months of April and early May. With the exception of Miguel Sanó, the offense has been healthy and rolling. The Twins are in the top tier in the league for run-scoring, home runs, slugging and OPS. They don't walk much (most of the lineup is comprised of aggressive hitters), but they don't strike out much, relative to the rest of the league. The Twins are averaging well over five runs a game, playing many games in poor weather conditions. They appear set to challenge team records in runs scored and home runs this year. The power is well-distributed, with most of the regular lineup already hitting six or more homers. They have endured slumps from regulars and a slow start from Marwin Gonzalez (who has essentially replaced Sanó) without suffering much on the scoreboard.
     
    Pitching has been a surprise. The team is in the top half of many key pitching stats, including runs per game, quality starts, shutouts, innings pitched by starters, and opponent's batting average. Three of the five starters have been outstanding, with a fourth (Kyle Gibson) rounding into form in recent starts. The starters good work has taken pressure off of the bullpen. The bullpen hasn't been spotless, but they've gotten the job done. The late-inning quartet of May, Hildenberger, Rogers and Parker has been satisfactory, if not dominating.
     
    Defensively, the team is also doing very well. New acquisitions Gonzalez, Schoop and Crom have all played well in the field and the team has mostly been able to keep it's regular outfielders on the field, all of whom are plus defenders.
     
    Individual performances of note include José Berríos ascending to ace or near ace status. Jorge Polanco playing good defense and breaking out with the bat, Martín Pérez finding a few mph on his fastball and coming up with a cut fastball to (so far) become an outstanding rotation piece. The catching duo of Mitch Garver and Jason Castro (with a few appearances by Willians Astudillo) has been outstanding with the bat and has been given credit for helping the pitching improve. On the negative side, Marwin Gonzalez hasn't hit much, new rotation member Michael Pineda has struggled mightily in his last four starts and several relievers at the front end of the bullpen have had trouble getting people out. Many more players have stepped it up beyond those mentioned. Basically, the good play to this point has been a team effort.
     
    Can this run continue? Well, I think the competition changes with many more games against familiar opponents in the Central Division--three of those teams (KC, Chicago and Detroit) are in one stage or the other of rebuilding--so the schedule figures to be somewhat more favorable. I doubt the Twins can keep hitting so many homers (they are on a pace to hit almost 300!) and I also doubt the pitching will continue to be dominant, but there is no doubt that they are improved.
     
    I think the need going forward this year is adding pitching. A starter to perhaps supplant Pineda and a strong bullpen arm would be helpful and when injuries happen, such improvements might be vital. The Twins are now considered favorites to win the Central, but they need to keep doing what they're doing.
     
    Credit for this improvement should be given to Falvey and Levine, who also hired rookie manager Rocco Baldelli. They've shown they pay attention to the metrics that are part of the game now and made good decisions in putting together a team for today without breaking the bank or mortgaging the future. There's a long way to go, but the ride this year promises to be fun and it might be magical.
  6. stringer bell
    Well I saw the new Yankee Stadium last night. It was determined before we got to New York, that we would see Lions vs. Christians er Yankees vs. Twins on Friday night. My son, serving as tour guide/babysitter had us heading for the Bronx by 5 PM. After spending all afternoon in a museum, I was ready to go. We got to a subway station and headed towards the stadium. An uneventful 20 minute ride later and we were there. But wait! We hadn't eaten and the majority of our party didn't want ballpark food. We decided on seafood and the nearest place was only nine minutes away on foot. What we didn't know was that it was nine minutes straight uphill. We walked through what can charitably called a mixed neighborhood, broken bottles on the sidewalk, cars stopped/parked in unusual locations and Latin music blasting from stereos.
     
    The seafood place was small, smelled like fish, and had zero seating. We waited for our food and decided to walk back to the stadium to eat and wait for my son's fiancee, who had to work late and was to meet us. We got back and started exchanging texts with the fiancee, Irina, who just missed the subway train she thought she had to take. She was going to be late, so we split up we us old folks getting seated, while Jon waited for his sweetie. It turned out that Irina got on the wrong train and would not arrive until 7:30.
     
    Anyway, for me it was game on! Almost! A day of travel had drained the battery of my phone, so I tried to find a recharge station. After looking awhile, I found an AT&T place, but it took almost an hour to charge my phone.
     
    Meanwhile, the Twins grabbed an early lead, gave it back, took another lead and then gave it back for good. My observations--Milone was Milone, working the corners, hurt by bad defense and squeezed by the ump.After the first, Milone pitched from behind and he doesn't have the stuff to do that. Grossman made a couple of OK throws, but a good throw would have gotten Beltran. Escobar is supposed to be super reliable. He hasn't been this year. Buxton's first AB was great--he needs to go the other way more.
     
    The back of the Yankee bullpen was dominant.Chapman was something else. Yankee fans weren't very obnoxious and the stadium is functional, but not anything special. My son called new Yankee Stadium "soulless". My opinion is if you're a baseball fan and are in NY, it's worth the trip.
  7. stringer bell
    Yesterday, Ricky Nolasco and the Twins were cruising to a victory against the weakened, but still hated, New York Yankees. A funny thing happened on the way to the winner's circle--the Twins gave up seven runs in innings 7, 8, and 9 and were beaten despite getting two homers against Chapman in the ninth.
     
    Here are some of the culprits: Kevin Jepsen entered in the eighth with a two-run lead and one runner on first and one out. He yielded the game-tying homer to Carlos Beltran, which gave the Yankees with their great end of the bullpen a huge advantage. 2) Ryan Pressly came in with the bases loaded and nobody out. He allowed the go-ahead run to score on a 3-2 fastball to Ellsbury, then wild-pitched the runners to second and third where the Yanks final run. 3) Fernando Abad who walked the leadoff batter and allowed a bunt single to Didi Gregorious setting up the Yankee's big inning. 4) Juan Centeno who failed to catch a low pitch and was charged with a passed ball and then partially blocked another pitch in the dirt, which still allowed the runners to advance. 5) Paul Molitor, who took Abad out instead of having him face a pinch hitter, then two lefty hitters and intentionally walked the number 8 hitter loading the bases.
     
    In my humble opinion, Centeno's mistakes, particularly the passed ball, can't be underestimated. If he wants to stay in the majors, he's got to block low pitches. Molitor's strategy was questionable. Abad has been his best reliever and very good against lefties. Asking Pressly to not only get out the pinch hitter, but both Ellsbury and Gardner is asking for a lot. Abad committed the cardinal sin of walking the leadoff hitter. He wasn't in good position to field Didi's bunt. Pressly was asked to perform a near-miracle and probably came close. If he didn't run the count full to Ellsbury, he might have gotten out of the jam. Jepsen threw a nothing off-speed pitch to Beltran, he had a 2-2 count and absolutely needed to keep the ball in the park.
     
    Here's my verdict: #1--Centeno. #2--Jepsen. #3 Molitor. #4 Pressly and #4 Abad (a tie).
  8. stringer bell
    I spent Thanksgiving in New York City, visiting my son and his fiancée and seeing some sites. No, I didn't find Dave W, I guess I didn't look. Anyway, I did attend my first, and probably only, Macy's Thanksgiving Day Parade. We arrived early and found a place to stand across from Fox News. We saw the parades, floats, minor celebrities and Santa.
     
    A women standing next to me asked me if I was from Minnesota, since I was wearing a coat that said "Mayo Clinic" on it. She said that she had grown up in Hinckley and then moved to Scottsdale. We chatted for awhile and finally starting talking about children. She said that her son played for the Twins. I said "oh really" and shared with her that i was a Twins fan for life and that I often contributed to Twins Daily. She said her son was Aaron Slegers and that he was the tallest player in the Twins system--6'10". I remembered Slegers, but couldn't recall which Big Ten school he attended. She said he went to Indiana and that his catcher was Kyle Schwarber, who has made a name for himself.
     
    Aaron made it to AA in 2015, after having a nice season at High A Fort Myers. I really don't know if how highly regarded he is, but it does highlight the many players in the minors--how hard they work and the odds against any but the premium prospects to make it to the majors. After a 160 inning regular season, Aaron Slegers works out every day, but hasn't done any throwing and won't for a while.
     
    There were more events and a great turkey dinner put on by my son and his fiancée, but it is cool to have met someone with a connection to the Twins a long way from home.
  9. stringer bell
    "You never know what you're gonna get" (from Forrest Gump), this little witticism also applies to baseball players. Every front office projects what their prospects will become, but it is never a sure bet. Consider two current Minnesota Twins: Brian Dozier came to the Twins as a shortstop, thought to be fundamentally sound in the field, but without great tools. As a hitter, he had never hit below .274 and never exceeded nine homers in a season, with his top year yielding at .320 average in a year split between advanced A ball and AA. Typical middle infielder profile. Sometime in 2013, the scouting report changed--Dozier has become a second baseman and a guy with a low batting average, but with the most extra base sock for his position in major league baseball. It could be argued that from the start of 2014 (or perhaps midseason of 2013) until the All-Star break in 2015 that Dozier put together elite numbers based on his power numbers. Overall, despite the low batting average and middling overall OBP, Dozier has established himself as a hitter based on his extra-base hits. Since 2013 he has compiled 105 doubles and 69 homers from second base.
     
    Now, lets look at Oswaldo Arcia: Coming through the system, the most used comp for Arcia was Bobby Abreu, a fine hitter with some power. Arcia hit his way throught the minors, always as a young player for the league. He topped out at 17 homers in 2012, splitting his season between A+ and AA and hitting a combined .320. As a Twin, Arcia has become a true home run threat, hitting 34 homers (including some prodigious long balls) in under 800 plate appearances in 2013 and 2014. However, the batting average and more importantly strike zone discipline have diminished dramatically.
     
    Both players have increased their power numbers at the highest level, but lost something in the transition. Dozier hasn't cracked .250 for batting average and this season set the club strikeout record. Arcia's K percentage is much higher than Dozier's and he seldom takes a free pass, in fact this year for the Twins Arcia didn't get a non-intentional walk (65 PAs). I think the Twins would be happy if both Dozier and Arcia became more complete hitters, even if it costs a few home runs. In Arcia's case, I think his time in Minnesota will end if he doesn't modify his approach (and results), while with Dozier, becoming someone who uses the whole field more often would be an adjustment to the adjustments that major league pitchers have used on him.
  10. stringer bell
    The Twins current playoff probability according to Baseball Prospectus is just 7%. That seems low, given the fact that they only trail wild card leader Baltimore by 1.5 games and play the Orioles four games within the week.
     
    Here's a tale about the underdog winning. A young sophomore track runner has had a respectable season in the 1600 meters going into the conference meet. However, she hadn't beaten three older runners (one of whom went on to win the state championship) all year. On a cool, cloudy spring day the sophomore starts out in the lead, as the other higher-seeded runner settle into a trail position, eyeing the other favorites, while the young slender sophomore takes a big lead. Nobody challenges for the first half-mile. On the third lap, the favorites decide they had better start to challenge the leader. It takes a while to close the gap and after three quarters of the race, it looks like the younger runner will fade to fourth place as the three older, stronger runners are clustered within a few yards of the leader.
     
    Two challengers try to pass, but can't get past. The last major challenger waits until the last 100 meters, but the leader somehow has a kick left and holds her off as well. The sophomore runs her best time by 15 seconds. It is good enough to hold off the contenders she had never beaten before or after the one conference meet.
     
    This story has the advantage of being true, at least as I remember it. My daughter was a sophomore and stunned herself, her coach and her dad winning the conference race. If there were a prospectus for high school track meets then, I'm sure her victory percentage would have been lower than seven per cent.
     
    That is what makes sports fun!
  11. stringer bell
    I was originally going to write about the Twins "June Swoon", but the news of Vargas' demotion followed by word that Miguel Sano would assume his spot on the roster makes last month's struggle old news. The Twins are above .500 so by loose definition they are contenders to make the playoffs. They have promoted three of their top prospects within the last month and it looks like this won't be the end of the moves.
     
    First, a look at positions, followed by a look at players. Center Field: The Twins have supplanted an injured and now released Jordan Schafer with first, Aaron Hicks and then top prospect Byron Buxton. Both are currently on the DL, with Hicks rehabbing and Buxton supposedly not due back for three to five weeks. I was really surprised when Hicks was not recalled following the injury to Buxton. Hicks has struggled a bit in his first games, but had three hits today. I have to believe Hicks is in Kansas City tomorrow when the Twins face the Royals. The future still belongs to Buxton, despite his struggles with the Twins. Hicks future seems pretty uncertain. The team has started three guys in center in the last week. Shortstop: When Santana was demoted about a month ago, it was assumed that Eduardo Escobar would get his chance to establish himself as the current shortstop. It didn't happen. Santana has returned and started a few games and Eduardo Nuñez has been at short more than Escobar. Jorge Polanco is still in Chattanoogs and committing too many errors. Starting rotation: Ervin Santana's suspension is up on Independence Day. His three rehab starts were very good. All five current starters have a pretty good claim to stay in the rotation. Bullpen: Alex Meyer was recently called up and in two appearances where the starter was knocked out early, has been pretty close to dreadful. The two non-closing left handed reliever have bad statistics and little chance for upside. Blaine Boyer seems to be weakening after a stong start. DH: Vargas opened the season as the regular DH, got demoted and then came back. He hasn't been a constant threat and has seen his playing time diminish. It appears that Sano will get a chance at DH.
     
    Players: Kennys Vargas-He wasn't a top prospect last year, but last year he forced his way onto the Twins last year. This year has offered major regression. Vargas had a brief demotion to AAA and today was sent to Chattanooga. Vargas needs to hit with authority and he's failed to do that. As mostly a pure DH (a game at first occasionally) the production has to be substantial. Oswaldo Arcia--He was injured and then optioned to Rochester. Arcia finally has started hitting, but he's been passed by by Eddie Rosario as an outfielder and probably Miguel Sano as a DH. The way back to the majors isn't clear. I would guess someone needs to struggle while Arcia lights it up. Eduardo Escobar--Last year's primary shortstop has hardly played the position. Danny Santana was given the job and when he faltered Escobar has gotten a few starts, but other have started many more. Most of Escobar's playing time has come in left field. He hasn't hit well enough to be a serious alternative in the outfield. Danny Santana--The Opening Day shortstop was demoted to the minors and only recalled when there were injuries. He hasn't hit well since his recall, and started the last two games in center field. Eddie Rosario--Rosario was recalled in May and now seems secure to stay with the club. He has adjusted very well to the majors, starting games at all three outfield positions. Aaron Hicks--Recalled after dominating AAA, Hicks played well in the field, but was at best only a #9 hitter. He was injured just as Buxton was to be recalled and is rehabbing in Rochester. Hicks could be on his way back to the majors as soon as tomorrow. Byron Buxton--The crown jewel of the farm system, Buxton struggled but showed obvious talent. He is slated to be disabled for probably another month.
     
    It appears that the Twins have settled on Rosario as a regular outfielder and that DH will be handled by Sano for now. Center field probably goes to Hicks until Buxton is healthy. I don't know who the shortstop for the rest of the year will be. I wish they would give Escobar a legitimate chance at this point. I think Santana needs work in the minors, along with Vargas and Arcia. That is some high quality depth
  12. stringer bell
    The outfield and DH positions on the Twins presents many options and decisions will have to be made. The opening day outfield of Hunter, Schafer, and Arcia has been revamped to Hunter, Buxton, and Rosario. DH Kennys Vargas was demoted and has returned, but his status and his future are uncertain. Hunter started slowly this year, had a fine month of May and, with most of the team, fallen off in June. Torii has provided good offense, satisfactory defense and a whole bunch of personality. He's under contract for this season and so far the team has gotten it's money's worth from the almost 40-year old. He figures to be the primary right fielder, with several DH days, going forward. Buxton, the crown jewel of the Twins' farm system, was recalled last Sunday. He has a two week audition where he can take over center field, if not he would go back to the minors. The bar isn't that high and I expect BB will do enough to prolong his stay with the Twins. If Buxton is demoted, the job goes back to Aaron Hicks, who has looked like a big leaguer, but not a future star. Eddie Rosario has had a good run with the Twins. He has played both corners and made a number of good plays in the field. He's done a nice job hitting. He still doesn't walk much, but I think he is getting better at swinging at strikes. I think Rosario is here to stay. Like the Twins best player, Brian Dozier, he can hit, run the bases, and cover a lot of ground in the outfield and he has a good, accurate arm. If Rosario is the regular in left, it moves Oswaldo Arcia to compete with Vargas for DH at-bats.
     
    Torii Hunter is on a one-year contract and will be 40 next month. Despite his good season, I can't see Hunter continuing as a player with the Twins. Going forward, the Twins have several candidates to step forward. Arcia is in AAA. In Chattanooga Adam Brett Walker and Max Kepler are having breakout seasons. A year from now, most of those guys could be in the big leagues. It is great to have such a rich farm system, but not all the guys will be able to play where they should be playing. There will be 40-man roster issues and I think the Twins will have to selectively reduce guys who may be read to contribute. That is why I can get behind a building team making a trade where they yield prospects.
     
    The Twins need to decide who to go with. I think the emphasis should be to go with younger, more athletic players who can contribute in all facets of the game. Buxton, Rosario, Dozier, and perhaps Hicks represent a bright future.
  13. stringer bell
    Short note today. Watched infield practice run by Tom Kelly. TK looked great running drills and hitting grounders. The headline is that Trevor Plouffe took grounders at first base. Went to the Twins game and exchanged tickets from the outfield handicapped seats to third deck first base side. Great exchange! Gibson looked good, hit 95 on the gun, except two pitches to Cervelli and some control issues which seemed to appear and disappear without warning.
  14. stringer bell
    My journey to Fort Myers started with a phone call at 3 in the morning, notifying me that the shuttle would arrive at the Kwik Trip at 3:50 instead of the already too early 4:20. I arrived at "Terminal 2" at 5 AM for an 8:30 flight, but couldn't go through Security because I had arranged to help my brother when he arrived.
     
    The flight was fine-left on time, arrived on time--but still felt a bit like a sardine in the can. We upgraded our rental to an SUV and headed to our hotel on Sanibel. There the real fun began. The room wasn't ready. We ate outside by the pool under an umbrella. An hour and a half later, the room still wasn't ready. After at least a half-dozen trips to the front desk, things were pretty much settled. However, we will be in a different room tomorrow, more fitting with my brother's needs.
     
    We went out, grabbed a quick bite, got some incidentals at Pubinx and returned to our room at 8:30. It was then that I realized how tried I was!
     
    Today I repack, check out the minor leaguers and take in a day game. Hopefully, I will have the energy to do something later this afternoon and this evening.
  15. stringer bell
    Ricky Nolasco signed easily the largest free agent contract for the Twins last year. While not every Twins fan was happy, the consensus was that the Twins had opened their wallets wide to get a guy that would guarantee them innings and competitive starts. In other words, while Nolasco's ceiling wasn't thought to be that high, his floor was thought to be competence or better than that.
     
    For one season, at least, the Twins were totally wrong. They didn't get middle-of-the-rotation production from him. They didn't get bottom of the rotation production. Mostly, the team got very poor performance for what is agreed to be a lot of money.
     
    What went wrong? There are some things numbers that tell the tale. First of all, Nolasco has always given up a lot of hits and hasn't been very good at stranding runners. The naysayers of the contract pointed that out from the beginning. Secondly, Nolasco had spent all his career in the National League, without a DH, thought to be easier for pitchers to put up good numbers. The last two factors may or may not be supported by numbers--Nolasco pitched with forearm tightness from spring training until he was disabled in early July. He pitched to an awful 5.90 ERA prior to going on the DL, post All-Star game yielded a more representative 4.39 ERA. Finally, Nolasco posted a 4.30 FIP, indicating that he suffered from bad luck and bad defense. In watching most of his starts, I would submit that Nolasco didn't get much help behind him and that he suffered from a bunch of bloop hits and some bad hops. I also saw a lot of hard-hit balls with quite a few reaching the seats.
     
    What does the future hold? First of all, while the first year was a disaster, Nolasco's body of work suggests he'll bounce back. He's been pretty dependable and reliable for a long time. No, he won't be traded in a salary dump and I sincerely doubt that he'll be exchanged for another "bad" contract. He'll get a chance to come back for the Twins. Secondly, I don't see him in the top of Twins rotation next year or for the duration of his contract. The Twins signed him 10 days short of his 31st birthday, it is doubtful he'll every perform better than he has in his better years ('10, '12 and '13) and not close to his best year in '08.
     
    In looking at Ricky's season, I would classify eight starts as "good" or better, six as "meh" to average, and the remainder (13) to qualify as poor. Certainly not good enough, but there were some decent outings. How much was health related? An open question. I think Nolasco has learned a bit about what he has to do to succeed and might minimize those poor starts. He showed a pretty good breaking ball, to go with an okay fastball but he needs to mix his pitches effectively. Finally, the Twins need to improve their defense. Better defensive outfielders would probably disproportionately benefit the veteran hurler.
     
    Better defense, better luck and better health will most likely lead to better results. I doubt he ever is regarded as a good signing, but I also doubt he'll be viewed as a total failure going forward. The Twins should have expected better for over $12M per year, I think they'll get closer to it for the rest of his contract. But much like Joe Mauer, people will expect more than he'll produce.
  16. stringer bell
    I saw Danny Santana play in a lot of games in Spring Training of 2014. I was impressed with his swing and his speed, but thought that he was a long way from helping the Twins in 2014. Santana showed the baseball world that he was ready when he was recalled in early May. He hit early and continued to hit throughout the season. Danny finished with a .319 batting average and an OPS of .824, both of which would have led the team easily if he had enough plate appearances. Danny made the All-Rookie team and is a cinch to be the Twins Rookie of the Year for 2014.
     
    Santana assumed the leadoff spot in the order at midseason and thrived there. He hit over .300 and stole 19 bases as the leadoff man. Santana scored 70 runs in just over 100 games and had 41 extra-base hits in 430 plate appearances. Danny's BABIP was .405, a very high number and it was an astounding .443 as a right handed hitter.
     
    Beyond his offensive contributions, Santana saved the Twins by playing center field. Danny started 62 games there after playing center only a handful of games in the low minors. His defense wasn't good at the start, but he improved and was adequate by the conclusion of the season.
     
    Two questions loom over Danny Santana for 2015 and beyond: 1) Can he sustain his outstanding offensive performance? 2) What will his defensive position be?
     
    First, I find it hard to believe that Santana will continue to hit .319 next year and beyond. He's got great speed, a nice swing and unflappable attitude, but that BABIP is pretty close to otherworldly, especially from the right side. I expect the major regression will come on his right handed hitting because his K percentage is much higher (32% vs. 19% as a LH hitter). Also, I think Danny has to learn to be a bit more selective at the plate. He chased a lot of pitches out of the zone making for short or defensive at-bats. Adding to his walk percentage would be a good idea, as well (only 4.4% in 2014).
     
    Where Santana should play going forward has been a top topic on Twins Daily. The team got solid production from last year's de facto starting shortstop, Eduardo Escobar, and did not get anything close to solid production in center field from anyone else on the current roster. Santana was a shortstop playing center field in 2014, he could be more than that if the team decides he is need in the outfield. However, he has the arm and range to be an outstanding defensive shortstop. It is a quandary that the next manager will have to deal with. Any solution will be controversial. I hope the team picks a position for Danny and leaves him there, at least for 2015.
  17. stringer bell
    While this isn't "My Dinner with Andre" or "Tuesdays with Morrie", I did have dinner with someone on a Tuesday. During Monday's game thread our very own "scene setter" and moderator Riverbrian noted that he was in Rochester. I work in that fair city and live just over 20 miles away. I contacted Brian when he asked about bakeries, and we agreed to meet for beers and dinner while watching the middle game of the Twins-Indians series.
     
    I really didn't know what to expect. I knew that RB was in town on business (too many people visit Rochester because they or their loved ones are sick) and I knew his approximate age. From his posts, I knew he had a wry sense of humor and quite a bit of knowledge about "our Twins".
     
    First, the surprises (to me). RB is a real baseball fan and really knows the game, but he manages to not be dragged down much when the team loses or makes inexplicable moves. The Alfred E. Neuman moniker is fitting, in that respect. Secondly, I found out why RB didn't participate much in WAR and defensive metric discussions--because he feels those stats in particular are flawed too much to tell us anything about the players in question (I agree!).
     
    We discussed several topics--careers, politics, religion, floods, families and on and on and I can say that I was never bored while discussing these matters. On some items I could have said the same words, on others it was nice to hear a different perspective. In general, it is nice at my age and this point in my life to meet someone new.
     
    Of course, since we are both members of TD, I knew we had a shared obsess.....er deep interest in the same thing--Twins baseball. In conversations with the few TD posters I have met and in meeting people at Spring Training or watching the Cedar Rapids Kernels, I have to say it has been fun and interesting without a single person being boorish or arrogant. Maybe baseball fans are the best people in the world.
  18. stringer bell
    While this isn't "My Dinner with Andre" or "Tuesdays with Morrie", I did have dinner with someone on a Tuesday. During Monday's game thread our very own "scene setter" and moderator Riverbrian noted that he was in Rochester. I work in that fair city and live just over 20 miles away. I contacted Brian when he asked about bakeries, and we agreed to meet for beers and dinner while watching the middle game of the Twins-Indians series.
     
    I really didn't know what to expect. I knew that RB was in town on business (too many people visit Rochester because they or their loved ones are sick) and I knew his approximate age. From his posts, I knew he had a sense of humor and quite a bit of knowledge about "our Twins".
     
    First, the surprises (to me). RB is a real baseball fan and really knows the game, but he manages to not be dragged down much when the team loses or makes inexplicable moves. The Alfred E. Neuman moniker is fitting, in that respect. Secondly, I found out why RB didn't participate much in WAR and defensive metric discussions--because he feels those stats in particular are flawed too much to tell us anything about the players in question (I agree!).
     
    We discussed several topics--careers, politics, religion, floods, families and on and on and I can say that I was never bored while discussing these matters. On some items I could have said the same words, on others it was nice to hear a different perspective. In general, it is nice at my age and this point in my life to meet someone new. I
     
    Of course, since we are both members of TD, I knew we had a shared obsess.....er deep interest in the same thing--Twins baseball. In conversations with the few TD posters I have met and in meeting people at Spring Training or watching the Cedar Rapids Kernels, I have to say it has been fun and interesting without a single person being boorish or arrogant. Maybe baseball fans are the best people in the world.
  19. stringer bell
    Unless the Twins make a waiver claim, their roster is set for the start of the 2014 season. Several players have been hot topics here on Twins Daily. I will offer my takes on 10 players and hope that they stimulate some conversation.
     
    1) Joe Mauer--Now the Twins regular first baseman and unquestioned best player. Mauer is the biggest certainty on the team. He will hit and he won't say anything controversial. Joe still needs to learn a little about first base, he has struggled some there this spring. I expect that problem to be temporary, and I expect that Mauer will be an excellent defensive 1B by midseason. It does show that even a premium athlete like Mauer can't necessarily be bounced around the diamond. I am a traditionalist, I guess. I have always believed the team's best hitter should hit third. Tony-O, Kirby, Knoblauch, and Molitor to name just a few examples. Mauer is the best hitter--he should bat third and the other guys should fill in the spots around him.
     
    2) Aaron Hicks--After reading the "Put Me in Coach" blog about Hicks, the phrase "fool me once, shame on you--fool me twice, shame on me" comes to mind. The posters are basing Hicks' future performance on his obvious athletic gifts and (gulp) strong second half of spring training. Aaron Hicks fell somewhere between "failure" and "disappointment" in 2013. To expect him to excel is a huge jump. I'm hoping for extreme improvement where most metrics show him to be average. I have posted quite often on Hicks' future. I believe Byron Buxton is the real deal--a future All-Star fixture with a near unlimited ceiling. If that is true, Hicks would have to move to a corner to have a future as a Twin. I remain unconvinced that he will hit enough to ever justify such a move. I believe he will hit and field well enough eventually to be an above-average center fielder, which makes him a valuable trade chip. I like what Hicks brings to the table. I hope he succeeds, but I don't think he will ever hit enough to be a regular left or right fielder. One more cautionary thought: Hicks has to go some to be better than average defensively. Last year he struggled early and settled in and was pretty good. That doesn't make him elite. With more experience, he has the tools to be an elite defender and I would expect he can get there, but that isn't a done deal yet, either.
     
    3) Trevor Plouffe--He actually had a pretty good spring FWIW. Baseball curmudgeon Patrick Reusse had a nice article on "Plouffsie", which captured the ups and downs of a flawed, but serviceable player. Plouffe is perhaps the Twins best hope to hit for power from the right side, he seemed to show a better approach at the plate late last year and this spring. Let's not kid ourselves, unless Plouffe exceeds 20 long balls, the flaws will exceed the improvements as a hitter. Trevor is neither one of the current wave or an aging veteran. He and Dozier and a couple of pitchers are bridges to the next surge for the Twins. Plouffe doesn't seem to have the instincts to ever be a truly good defender or baserunner, but if he can bash the baseball, we can forgive much of his downside. I've never met him, but I've read his tweets and comments in the papers and I like what I've read. It's a huge season for Trevor--if he disappoints, he could be non-tendered and perhaps become a baseball nomad, like his friend Delmon Young. If he steps forward, he could become part of the Twins future (maybe in left field) and probably garner a very nice contract. I'm cautiously optimistic.
     
    4) Josh Willingham--Speaking of RH power, there is the Hammer. Willingham is a bat-first "corner outfielder". Obviously, he needs to hit to be an asset. Last year, he didn't hit. This spring has offered no encouragement that he will hit, but it's only Spring Training. Willingham is 35, making him the oldest Twin and it is possible that his decline has started and was escalated by injury last year. It is also possible that Willingham has a lot of good swings left. Last year was ruined by injuries but this is a contract year, so Willingham will have every incentive to play and produce as much as possible. I think that the most important (and uncertain) man in the lineup is Hammer. If he resembles his Silver Slugger self of 2012, Mauer will get a lot of good pitches to hit and Willingham will have a lot of runners on base to drive in. If he's more like last year, the lineup really crumbles around him. Defensively, Willingham's best postion is DH. I hope the Twins can find three better outfielders that can hit a little so that Hammer can just hit. I have speculated that it is truly unlikely that Willingham remains a Twin. I hope he hits enough to net something by the trading deadline.
     
    5) Eduardo Escobar--He is this year's second-string quarterback. His hitting flaws are minimized because everyone saw that Florimon is a poor hitter. In my book, Escobar is a very nice three-position utility infielder. Besides this, he might play a few innings in the outfield and (shudder) might even find himself behind the plate. Why is Esco a utility guy? He doesn't hit enough to be a regular and he's not a defensive upgrade at the two middle infield positions. Escobar looks to have a better bat than Florimon, and plays better in the field than Plouffe. He has soft hands and a really good arm, but I don't think his has plus range at short and he doesn't have great footwork at second. Escobar is an injury or implosion away from starting at second or short. As a switch hitter, he might get quite a few PAs at third, as well. I don't see Escobar as a regular, but I think he could be a fine utility guy for a long time. If his hitting tools steps forward, he could be more.
     
    Since this post is getting pretty long, I'll continue later with a new blog.
  20. stringer bell

    10 Opinions

    By stringer bell,

    1) All baseball fans that have the capacity to visit Spring Training should do so. Hope springs eternal, but more than that, fans can watch drills and minor league games and scrimmages. At Fort Myers, we can sit next to minor league prospects, scouts, and knowledgeable fans. In past years, TR was on the premises and talked with fans sharing much more than makes the papers. It is great to watch both the top prospects and the most anonymous players. Autographs are fairly easy to get and the atmosphere is almost as warm as the weather.
     
    2) Joe Mauer is where he should be, batting third and playing first base. After the concussion, Mauer needed to get out from behind the plate. First base is the proper position for him to transition to at this point. Mauer is a three-time batting champ and former MVP--he is a great hitter. He needs to be able to have the best chance to hit and stay strong and being a first baseman fills that bill. Further, I think that by midseason Mauer will be a fine defensive 1B. He still has good reactions, has a long reach and is accustomed to digging balls out of the dirt and he has played more than 50 games at first. Catching has robbed Mauer of most of his speed and he wouldn't cover much ground in the outfield. Perhaps he could have moved to third, but Miguel Sano lurks and he has never played the position. The team's best hitter should hit for a little more power and in my book profiles as the ideal 3-hole hitter.
     
    3)A position player other than Buxton or Sano will develop into an All-Star for the Twins. DH Kennys Vargas, Adam Brett Walker, Danny Santana, and Josmil Pinto are some names in the upper minors. Vargas is drawing comparisons to Big Papi, Santana has shown an improved hit tool at a position of need and Pinto is on the cusp after a very good September audition. Walker is a strong, raw talent. There are many more talented prospects and I think someone will break through in the next couple of years.
     
    4)Pitching will be the strength of the Twins minor league teams. Signing three free agents has the side effect of packing each level with high quality arms. From Cedar Rapids to Rochester, the Twins will have guys who perhaps merit competing at a higher level. In other years, Tonkin, Guerra, Pressly, and the loser(s) in the fifth starter competition would be on the major league roster. Thielbar would be a lock most years, but it is possible he will be optioned to Rochester.
     
    5)Defense and lack of speed will be glaring weaknesses for the Twins in 2014. Florimon, Dozier, and Hicks have good, not great, speed. Most of the rest of the squad lacks speed and several are glacier-like. The gloves at third, left and right are below-average and it is probably more important for a pitch-to-contact staff that the Twins will field.
     
    6)The 25-man roster going north this year will change dramatically over the course of this year. Given the contracts of the players, some obvious replacements making their way up the ladder in the minors, and (finally) pressure from within to start winning, transactions are bound to happen. I foresee Willingham being traded before or at the deadline. Plouffe and Parmelee, among others, could be traded off. Several pitchers should be available out of the bullpen, plus Correia. The Twins also have the payroll space to add a veteran for a prospect to fill a hole (SS or C, perhaps DH or OF).
     
    7)There will be positive surprises. This is a karma thing. So many things have gone so wrong for the last three years, it seems only right and fair that the Twins have positive performances from unexpected sources. Maybe it will be Chris Colabello, maybe one of the Jasons, maybe a call-up like Danny Santana comes up and performs like an All-Star. Perhaps someone acquired in a trade will overperform.
     
    8)Power will be key. With little speed, questionable defense, and many questions about the pitching, the Twins need to slug better. They have guys--Arcia, Willingham, Plouffe--need to hit balls over the fence, hopefully with more than a few runners on. Many guys have OK or better power--Mauer, Pinto, Hicks, Dozier, Kubel, Colabello or Parmelee--so that if they hit homers, the Twins might produce a few more runs than projected and that could mean quite a few more wins.
  21. stringer bell
    I have been in Fort Myers since last Tuesday. I have seen four Twins games and a large amount of minor league games plus a full allotment of drills and BP. Today was the first day when the weather was subpar, and coming from the frozen north, the sunshine and warmth were much appreciated.
     
    The major league talent held few surprises. The Twins will field a team of position players who, as a group, are weak-hitting, lack power and speed, and aren't that good defensively. The pitching staff would be classed as "hittable" and lacking in power arms. Sure there is hope, but in order for the game to contend, they'll have to roll a lot of sevens.
     
    On the minor league side, there is a lot of exciting talent in addition to top prospects Buxton and Sano. There is a multitude of hard-throwing pitchers. There are several big strong hitters like D. Hicks, Vargas and Walker and a lot of speed. Watching Danny Santana run out a triple today was exciting. Better days are ahead for the Twins.
     
    I met two members of the Twins Daily community. "Madre Dos" is the house mother for many of the Latino E-Town Twins. She provided my brother and I with some perspective of what those young men go through. I think every baseball fan should hear her stories and better understand the challenges these young men face in rookie ball. I also met moderator Chi-Town Twins Fan. Chi-Town and I are from the same area and roughly of the same generation, so it was good to compare notes.
     
    My brother and I will check out the minor leaguers tomorrow before we head back. He's the big guy with a scooter. We would enjoy meeting a couple more TD regulars and I know Halsey and Thrylos were near us today. Maybe you guys can convince me you're right about who to keep on the 25-man roster!
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