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stringer bell

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Blog Entries posted by stringer bell

  1. stringer bell

    Strange Times

    By stringer bell,

    I write this blog entry when I was expecting to do other things. I am in Fort Myers in 80 degree weather with just a hint of a breeze on a nice Thursday afternoon. What could be wrong? Well, actually, plenty.
     
    My significant other and I made plans for the rest of winter sometime in January. Because we had made an extended trip of the Christmas/New Year holidays and because we were planning a family gathering for the summer, we decided to stay in Minnesota for the rest of January and I decided I would stay in February until I could make it to spring training for my favorite baseball team. The plan was for me to drive to Florida by way of my daughter's residence in Indiana. I would be in Fort Myers by myself until she was on semester break and then we could enjoy a week together in Florida--baseball, beaches, warm weather--before driving back together so that she could be ready for college to start up again.
     
    Things often don't go as you plan them. The expensive ticket for her flight could now be purchased for pennies on the dollar. The Minnesota Twins and all of major league baseball have cancelled the remainder of spring training games. The Final Four won't happen, to quote a song "Broadway is dark tonight" and I would expect more cancellations going forward.
     
    This has brought me to think about what is important and what isn't. Having something like baseball to occupy my time is important. Filling that gap is essential. Having health is really crucial. I am thankful to be in good health at this time and I certainly don't want to get the coronavirus, even though it likely wouldn't effect me long term. Many people could die needlessly if measures aren't taken to diminish the acceleration of exposure. I'll do what I can to avoid getting the virus and spreading it to others.
     
    Oh yes. I did get to watch the future of the Minnesota Twins (IMHO). On Tuesday, in Clearwater, the starting lineup included Alex Kirilloff, Trevor Larnach, Brent Rooker and Royce Lewis. They all impressed me, particularly Lewis, who homered and made an outstanding defensive play at shortstop. If two or three of these prospects pan out, the pipeline will be intact and the Twins should be able to have a first-division lineup for most of the next decade.
     
    Today, before MLB's announcement suspending exhibition games, I watched Twins minor leaguers play. I saw Duran throwing absolute gas, Matt Wallner (big kid--6'5") looking good, but not making contact and I found out about a Twins prospect Seth Gray (4th round draft choice from Wright State) from his dad. I'll be a Gray fan now. Seems like a nice kid. Finally, as I was walking back to my car I saw a man walking over to a somewhat elderly guy wearing a Twins hat. Tony-O!. I waited until the conversation was over and asked Tony if I could take a picture. He said that we should make it a selfie, but that he couldn't sign autographs--bosses orders.
     
    I asked Tony how old he really was and he said something to the effect of "in America, I'm 81" with a chuckle. According to BB Reference, that is his correct age FWIW. I got back to my room excited about spending more days like today at the spring training complex, meeting icons and nice people from Twins Territory, and now it seems it is over almost before it started. Since I started writing this entry, Disneyland announced they were closing and March Madness was cancelled. This is serious stuff folks.
  2. stringer bell

    Playing Favorites

    By stringer bell,

    I have been a Twins fan since I was six years old, when they moved to the Twin Cities from Washington. After nearly sixty years, I doubt that that will ever be a fan of another baseball team or lose interest in "my team". In the course of the 59 years that the Twins have been the Twins, I have always had a favorite player or two every year. Sometimes that guy is a star, often he's not the star of the team. My favorites have included some obscure guys like Gary Wayne, Geoff Zahn, and Ron Washington, some good players like Gary Ward, Gary Gaetti, Brian Dozier and Michael Cuddyer and some All-Stars. I've always checked the box scores when I missed a game, to see how my favorite did. I've always advocated for my favorite player and enjoyed breakouts from such players as Greg Gagne and Brian Dozier.
     
    All of this is a preface for my current favorite player--Marwin Gonzalez. I like the way Gonzalez goes about his business, the way that he has fit in the clubhouse and how he is willing to play anywhere without complaint or preference for one position or another. Gonzalez looks like he will be affected by the signing of Josh Donaldson. He figured to have regular duty at one of the corners of the infield and now there will be a regular at both corners and probably in all the outfield positions. I hope Marwin gets consistent playing time when all are healthy and know that he will do well if there is an injury or ineffectiveness at one of the infield corners or in the outfield.
     
    I'd like to see my current favorite get his customary 500 plate appearances. I think with that number of at-bats he will perform quite well.
  3. stringer bell
    Two 30-year-old natives of Venezuela, both switch-hitters, both came to the majors as shortstops who became utility players and were to become free agents at the end of the 2018 season. I was looking at Baseball Reference and thought I would compare the former Twin with the current Twin. I was surprised how similar their numbers were.
    https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/e/escobed01.shtml
    https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/gonzama01.shtml
     
    While they are very similar, there are differences. First of all, Gonzalez has remained a versatile defender, while Escobar has become a fixture at third base for his new club. Neither are spending appreciable time in the middle of the diamond, this year Escobar has played one game at second base and Gonzalez has played one game at shortstop. Gonzalez has started mostly at third, but with the return of Miguel Sanó, he's started multiple games at first, third, left and right field.
     
    Escobar has truly come into his own as a hitter. He hits in the middle of a good Arizona lineup and leads the National League in games, plate appearances and at-bats. So far, he is putting up numbers worthy of All-Star consideration. After an extremely slow start, Gonzalez has put up numbers in line with his career norms.
     
    It is intriguing to consider what might have happened if the Twins had somehow managed to retain Escobar. Would he have been able to have the role that Gonzalez is filling? Would the Twins then converted Sanó to first base and not acquired Cron? For what it's worth, it appears that this has worked out for all concerned.
  4. stringer bell
    With the announcement that Nelson Cruz suffered a wrist injury yesterday, my immediate thought was who would replace him in the lineup and on the roster if he had to go on the injured list. It would appear to me that the answer is the much-discussed Miguel Sanó, who is on his third and last stop in his rehab program.
     
    Much has been written about Sanó. I wish to confine this discussion to the ballplayer between the lines. The other stuff has been beaten to death IMHO. What will the Twins get when a healthy Sanó is on the active roster?
     
    Sanó came up to the big leagues with much hype in 2015. He was going to be the power hitter the Twins hadn't had since Harmon Killebrew. Another comparison, because of size, was Frank Thomas. Sanó's rookie year was excellent. Despite being called up only at midseason, he was a contender for Rookie-of-the-Year. His traditional state line--.269 BA, 18 homers, 52 RBI was very good. Double the homers and RBIs for a full season, and there is a perennial All-Star, future Hall of Famer. Plus, he was only 22 years of age. A deeper look at his rookie stats was probably even more encouraging, while Miguel struck out over 100 times (in a half season), he also walked more than 50 times, giving him a solid OBP of .385. His OPS was a stellar .916 which yielded an OPS+ of 149. After a minor injury, Miguel only played 11 games in the field, so we couldn't be sure about his defense. For his superior half-season of work, Miguel Sanó was voted the Twins' Player of the Year.
     
    2016 started with Sanó installed as the new right fielder. He was never competent or comfortable there and it seemed to affect his hitting. After a month and a half of futility in right field, Miguel moved back to third to demonstrate a rocket arm, but less-than-soft hands. His metrics at third came in below average, but at least he could hit. Well, the hitting didn't go as well either. Sanó ended up playing in 116 game, having an OPS of .781 with 19 homers and 51 RBI as the Twins flailed and failed and lost over 100 games. Sanó missed over 30 games due to injuries. Again, a deeper look into Sanó's numbers is a mixed bag. In 160 additional plate appearances, Sanó only hit one more homer than 2015, his walk rate plummeted while his strikeout rate stayed basically steady. The batting average ended at .236 and his OBP fell to.319.
     
    Sanó was a deserved All-Star in 2017. He came to camp as the third baseman, healthy and came out of the gate on fire. His first-half stats were outstanding--.276, 21 homers, 62 RBI and his defense at third was satisfactory. The strikeout rate remained about the same (35%), but he also walked 44 times, a big improvement over 2016 and the OBP was .368 at the break.
     
    Since the 2017 All-Star break, Miguel Sanó hasn't been very good. The combined numbers from the second half of '17 and 2018 are .211 BA, 20 homers, 56 RBI. OBP at .292, slugging .408, with an OPS of .700. The walk rate is below 10% and the strikeout rate is 38%. These are not future Hall-of-Fame numbers. They aren't even starter numbers. In addition, according to metrics (and my eyes) Sanó remains a below-average third baseman, despite a plus-plus arm.
     
    To summarize this rather elongated prologue, Sanó's on-field performance has been a roller coaster. He started looking like one of the brightest stars, faded, came back to that level again and faded again. Does this up-and-down have to do with injuries? Certainly. The point here is to suggest that the Twins shouldn't be counting on Sanófor too much. Expectations of another Frank Thomas or Miguel Cabrera should be tempered by now. I think they should expect more than they gotten since the All-Star break of 2017. They should get more than Mark Reynolds-like production. If the strikeouts keep coming and the homers are too infrequent, he can still be optioned. This club looks like at least a contender for postseason. If that is the case, they shouldn't be playing guys based on potential or upside.
     
    Miguel Sanó is at a crossroads in his career (in my opinion). He soon will have a chance to step on stage with a good team and help them make postseason, and maybe have success there. He's now 26 and shouldn't be judged on what he might do, he should be judged by how he is actually performing on the field.As a Twins fan and a baseball fan, I hope he can find his earlier success. As someone who has seen a lot of hyped players come and go, I am a bit skeptical.
  5. stringer bell
    The Twins have ridden the roller coaster during the Paul Molitor era. Up in 2015, way down in 2016, a peek at the playoffs in 2017 and now way down in 2018. The roller coaster claimed a front-office victim in longtime GM Terry Ryan two years ago and now there has to be some heat on field manager Molitor after this season's extreme disappointment.
     
    The complaints about the old regime included being too "old school", including pitch-to-contact staffs, not using advanced metrics, cookie cutter approaches to hitting, and of course, not spending enough to bring in and keep talent. Fair complaints all, I think. However, in the Levine/Falvey era, we see little real progress and a real lack of talent in the upper minors. This year's crop of September call-ups is among the most uninspiring in recent memory.
     
    I believe there are two keys to being competitive and sustaining that competitiveness for a number of years. The first is pitching. Levine and Falvey are supposed to be pitching guys. They have acquired pitching, but with mixed results at best. Their best talent at the top levels of the farm system doesn't have many, if any, outstanding talents. Addison Reed, Zach Duke, Lance Lynn, Jake Odorizzi didn't move the needle much for the big club this year. Perhaps they have suffered from some bad luck and just need to add quality until it sticks and stays. All I can say is this, the Twins rank in the bottom third of almost every meaningful pitching stat. You don't win year after year with far below average pitching.
     
    The other component which is missing in my opinion is defense. For the last two years, the Twins have gone with a primary shortstop who is well below average defensively, couple that with a revolving door in center field this year, the trading of the regular second baseman and the season-ending injury to primary catcher Jason Castro, and you have a toxic mess turning outs into outs. Further, and if there is one complaint about Molitor that sticks, it is this. The team has been woeful at executing fundamental baseball. I'm talking about throwing to the proper base, making needless throws, failing to hit cutoff men and the like. Add in that opposing baserunners are taking extra bases like free gifts and this is tough to watch.
     
    I think the front office needs to commit to pitching and defense in a big way this offseason. That would include making every effort to keep their most gifted defender (Byron Buxton) in Minnesota and on the field as much as possible. Secondly, I think the Twins need a defensive-minded shortstop, with the idea that Jorge Polanco can move to what I think is his natural position, second base. On the pitching front, more and better arms to augment the so-so rotation (I think Gibson/Berrios/Odorizzi is fine for #2-4) and a questionable bullpen. I like May/Hildenberger/Rogers, but more is needed included a closer.
     
    The Twins have been in the baseball wilderness long enough. They need to have a solid plan for improvement, stick with it and stay relevant not for an occasional year, but consistently. I think the long suffering fan base deserves it.
  6. stringer bell
    Let me preface what will undoubtedly be a long entry by saying I am a Dozier fan. I have spoken to him at Spring Training a couple of times and like the young man. I believe he has been the Twins MVP for each of the last four seasons (counting this one) and I have no doubt that he is the team's best player at this point. Certainly, he isn't flawless, but the Twins need more players like Brian Dozier, not less.
     
    Over the course of this long, horrible season, Brian Dozier has often been a hot topic of conversation in Twins Territory. He isn't shy about stepping up to a microphone, my wife and daughters think he's good-looking and he's been a regular with the club as their second baseman for four years. If someone casually follows the Twins, they know who Dozier is, so it figures that he would be a topic of conversation.
     
    Let's see why Dozier has been discussed so much and what I think should be the conclusion for the topic: First of all, as the Twins started the season, Dozier couldn't get it going. After a bad second half in 2015, Dozier came out of the gate slow in 2016. Through all of April and May, Dozier barely reached .200 and the signature power was lacking. Had the league figured him out? Was the 28 year old (turned 29 in mid-May) regressing already? Should he be benched or put at the bottom of the order? My thought, then and now, was that it is a long season. If a guy is a good player, he'll come out of a funk. Robbie Cano had a similar stretch at the end of 2014 and beginning of 2015 and Cano might be a Hall-of-Famer. Along for the ride early in the season was the question whether BD was too pull-happy and if he used the whole field, he would be a more consistent and productive hitter. My thought was that Dozier needed to be able to hit the ball with authority when he was pitched away and as the season has progressed, he has accumulated some oppo hits and several to the middle of the field, the key being that he hit the ball hard, not a lazy popup or routine fly ball.
     
    Moving on, Dozier has spent most of the season hitting #1 or #2. Many have thought it wasn't ideal for a guy whose calling card is big power for his position to hit first or second. My thought then was that the Twins simply didn't have a better option. Dozier takes some of the longest at-bats on the team, he's walked a fair amount since arriving in the majors and he's a good base runner who doesn't clog the bases for those behind him. Ideally, he should have hit lower in the order to make a few more of his homers multi-run shots and I think that where Dozier hits in the lineup in 2017 will be a hot controversial topic if he is in a Twins' uniform next year.
     
    As the season rolled toward the All-Star break, the call to sell and rebuild the Twins included Dozier's name prominently. He had some value and the club is/was going nowhere in '16, so cashier him for a prospect or two and let Jorge Polanco handle second base. In June and July, Dozier recovered from his slow start. He put up a great line in June, posting an OPS for the month in excess of 1.000, he slowed in July, hitting only .240 but still putting up an OPS of .824. Trade Dozier at the deadline? Didn't happen and IMHO shouldn't have happened. He hasn't slowed down much since his monster June and with a team-friendly contract and relative youth, his value should only be higher in the off-season or at next year's trade deadline.
     
    Another topic that has emerged is defense. After a truly stout year in 2013, Dozier's defense has been categorized as below average by most metrics. While I don't believe Dozier is elite defensively, my eyes tell me he is in the average range. He makes a few outstanding plays (probably more than any other Twins player) and doesn't get to some balls he should, perhaps because of shifting, maybe because the position of shortstop has been in flux since he became a second baseman, maybe because in three of the last four years, the team never had a shot at contention. I don't know. In checking BB Ref, Dozier lags in zone rating, but is above average in runs saved. I see it as a wash, making Dozier average in the field. I'm waiting for someone to refute this, but in the final analysis, defense probably is an "eyes of the beholder" topic.
     
    Since the All-Star break, Brian Dozier has been en fuego. He's hitting .320, with an OPS of 1.091 and a mlb-leading 21 homers. I guess that puts to rest the "first half player" meme that was circulating among the diehard fans remaining. The question that stems from his performance both the cold April and May and his elite performance since is what to expect going forward. I have turned over in my mind what the most likely trajectory of Dozier's career figures to be. One extreme is Dan Uggla, who like Dozier wasn't highly regarded, got a chance in his mid-twenties and became a star in large part because of his power numbers. Uggla fell off a cliff in his early thirties. An opposing example is Jeff Kent. Kent was an okay player, but not even a full-time regular until he was 29. Starting from age 30, Kent won an MVP, was an All-Star five times with three different teams and posted OPS+ numbers over 119 every year until he was 39. This seems to be the extremes for power-hitting second basemen. Is Dozier going to be productive for most of another decade or is regression going to meet him around his 30th birthday? My answer is that no one knows for sure. It appears to me that Dozier has made adjustments to become a more complete hitter without diminishing his best asset--home run power. IMHO, it makes him a candidate to sustain high-end performance, although the end of 2015 and April-May of this year give a good argument that he could turn into a pumpkin at any time.
     
    In the last few weeks as the tumult in my life has moved Twins baseball on the back burner, I've managed to check the box scores, cluck over the disastrous pitching and watch highlights of games. Dozier has been front and center continuing his power surge. He now projects to exceed 40 homers and if he hits just one more long ball, he will have hit more in a single season than any Twin since Harmon in 1970. 40 homers would be a Top Ten season in franchise history dating back to the Senators who started playing at the turn of the 20th century. Only Harmon and Roy Sievers (once) have ever hit 40 homers in a single season in franchise history. Dozier is projected to score and drive in over 100 runs, also a rare feat, especially for guy who has hit first or second most of the season. He may or may not make 40 homers, 100 RBI or 100 runs, but on such a bad team those numbers stand out big and bold. Although I'm not a big fan of WAR, it does represent a quick and dirty assessment of value and Dozier's 5.6 WAR for this season is in the Top Ten in the league. Because the season has been so bad, I don't think Dozier has gotten the attention he deserves for his huge season. He won't win a Silver Slugger or MVP, he won't win the HR championship or set any other records, so there hasn't been any national coverage, but his overall season and particularly his production since June has been off the charts.
     
    Now in the season's final month, most Twins fans are thinking about the future (with good reason). Augmenting a terrible rotation is Priority One and trading Brian Dozier to get pitching help makes sense, since his value should be at an all-time high. This argument is buttressed by the play of Polanco, who has hit over .300, showing good on-base skills, but a questionable glove at short or third. I believe Jorge Polanco is best suited to second base and I believe adding him for Dozier wouldn't be all bad since Polanco is a switch hitter and wouldn't be prone to long slumps with his swing and approach. However, unless the payoff is monumental, Brian Dozier should be the Twins second baseman next year. He has had a season for the ages despite the wreckage around him, he's only 29 and if the last 100 days are an indication, he might get even better. Finally, he's been a solid citizen off the field. If the club wants somebody as the face of the franchise, they could do worse than Mr. Dozier.
     
    Just a couple more thoughts before I summarize--Dozier has been durable. Since becoming the team's second baseman, he hasn't been disabled and has missed only a handful of games with injuries. Secondly, my observation is that he is a good teammate. He doesn't sulk, cheers for his mates, appears to like their company off the field (loved the State Fair video) and despite having strong religious views, doesn't put that in the face of his teammates or the media.
     
    I have mentioned many of these thoughts in previous threads on the forums of Twins Daily. I find this player to be fascinating, especially in light of his minor league career and low status when drafted. I think Brian Dozier is a fine player who hasn't gotten the appreciation he deserves for this, his best season. I will continue to be a Dozier fan, hopefully as he continues to be a Minnesota Twin, but even if he's traded. In the event that he is traded, I will be pulling for the players acquired in return and hope they make the Twins better.
  7. stringer bell
    At the All-Star break, the Twins sit with a terrible 32-56 record and it is only that good because they've won the last three series against three AL West clubs. For most of the season, the Twins have scored the fewest runs in the AL while allowing the most. I wasn't totally surprised that the Twins pitching staff was bad, but it just doesn't seem right that they would be last in runs scored justifiably because they weren't getting on base and not hitting when they did manage to get runners in scoring position.
     
    With good work of late from their offense, the Twins have improved in offensive categories. They rank 10th in runs scored, 8th in OPS and slugging, 9th in OBP and 10th in homers. I would expect those numbers to continue to rise. There's plenty of talent and a lot of them are starting to realize their potential.
     
    Certainly, the pitching needs to improve, both the rotation and the back end of the bullpen. However, some guys have stepped up. Fernando Abad was brilliant for the first quarter of the season, but has faded. Brandon Kinzler was signed to a minor league contract, but recalled this spring and has been pretty good. Taylor Rogers looks like he belongs in the bullpen and Ryan Pressly and Michael Tonkin have shown enough to hold spots in the Twins bullpen.
     
    There is enough offense to be a good team soon. There isn't enough pitching. The Twins don't have an ace and their most consistent veteran is supposedly on the block. I am of the opinion that every trade made by the Twins from now until they are a true contender has to bring back pitching or catching. It is my belief that the Twins will be good again when their staff is better than average. I'm willing to bet the members of that staff will be homegrown or acquired in minor deals or the Rule V Draft. Signing free agent pitchers is like going against the house in Vegas. You might win once in a while, but long term the house always wins. Ryan has attempted to sign pitchers to eight figure (per year) contracts and it hasn't worked out.
     
    I expect the Twins to be more competitive in the second half of the season. I sincerely hope they trade a couple of veterans to allow the kids to play. Chargois and Berrios can cut their teeth in the major leagues. Some of Suzuki, Plouffe, Nuñez, Santana, Nolasco, and Abad should be sold off. I really don't think they are that far away, if they can get middle of the pack pitching.
     
    The other factor, which I think is overlooked in the Twins demise this year is defense. The pitching staff has enough trouble getting three outs in an inning and too often, because of misplays, a fourth or fifth out has been donated to the opponent. If the Twins get a new catcher or catching tandem, I would hope they get a solid defender who can limit opponent's running game. Also, another glaring deficiency has been shortstop. Eduardo Nuñez is below average as a shortstop and Eduardo Escobar has had a poor year playing short IMHO. A trade of Nuñez would probably net better defense at short
  8. stringer bell
    Yep, the Twins are bad. They almost certainly will lose 100 games and finish last in the AL Central. Management has been trashed regularly on Twins Daily and has deserved the scorn of the fan base. Articles have been written and several threads have discussed trading just about every veteran on the roster. I submit to everyone that the position players aren't that bad and not that much needs to be done. There is enough talent to score plenty of runs.
     
    Pitching, on the other hand, is a problem. The only home grown pitcher in the rotation for more than a year is Kyle Gibson. Tyler Duffey has had a couple of moments, but his numbers this year don't inspire confidence. There is talent but I don't know when or if it will ever develop. The bullpen has evolved a bit this year. The supposed end of the bullpen has imploded almost completely--Glen Perkins has a career-threatening injury, Kevin Jepsen was just DFAed, and Trevor May has been both injured and ineffective.
     
    I think that reforming the pitching staff is Problem #1 and Problem #2 is defense. All of that has to do with suppressing runs. Last year, for whatever reason, the rotation and bullpen performed much better than it had in all of the 90-loss seasons. They ranked in the middle in runs allowed. This year the Twins are last by a long ways in runs allowed. They are something like 1-34 when they score less than four runs.
     
    Too many veterans occupy spots in the rotation and too much money is invested in them. Some of those guys need to go. They are over thirty and most likely will never be better than they are now. The Twins bullpen has traditionally carried several guys who depended on their defense to make plays behind them. The bullpen has evolved somewhat, but isn't that effective.
     
    What transactions need to happen? I think at least one of Nolasco/Santana has to go. The live arms in the minors need to be tried, even if they aren't that effective. On the trade front, several players could go. I just saw an article on mlbtraderumors.com that lists Kinzler as a sneaky trade candidate, Abad could be on several team's radar and several position players might be gone--Nuñez, Suzuki, Plouffe (if healthy), perhaps Grossman--and most of this is addition by subtraction or moving on to the next season.
     
    The team could get better fast in scoring runs if Sano, Buxton, and Kepler live up to the hype and become solid regulars or better than that. Maybe the pitching and defense can get better fast. IMHO, it's harder to project pitchers than position players. I don't think it's a rebuild, it is a recasting.
  9. stringer bell
    After the back-slapping is done at Twins Way, the general manager should have time to take a long, hard look at the season that just played out. The Twins won 83 games and were competitive. The season was highlighted by one fine month (May) and a pluckiness that kept them from sinking too far when times got tough. The Twins pitching improved more than their metrics indicated while offensively the team scored more runs than their numbers indicated.
     
    The Twins scored 695 runs, while the league averaged 710. In 2014, the club scored 715 runs, ranking in the top half of most offensive statistics except for home runs. What changed? Plenty. In 2014, the Twins had better than average performance from a player at all nine positions. In 2015, they managed to have players with an OPS+ above 100 at three positions, and only one player (Miguel Sano) whose numbers could be classified as well above average. The team was dead last in on-base percentage and their top hitter had a batting average of .265. The 2014 had more than 100 more walks than the 2015 team, while accumulating 65 more strikeouts. Somehow the 2015 group finished in the middle of the pack in runs scored, but overall offense took a severe downturn. Part of that can be explained by personnel--the Twins got more than 450 at-bats from Eddie Rosario, who provided first-rate defense in the outfield corners instead of playing lumbering DHs and first basemen in the outfield. Regression hit the Twins hard as well. 2014 newcomers Santana and Vargas along with Oswaldo Arcia all struggled and were banished to the minor leagues, with Arcia not even being recalled when rosters were expanded. Full-time regulars Dozier and Plouffe saw their seasons fall off after seeing career bests in 2014. 2014 All-Star Kurt Suzuki came back to earth with a BA 40 points lower and his OPS+ falling from 104 to 67.
     
    Pitching was more of a mixed bag. The Twins' rotation wasn't great, but wasn't the embarrassment that previous editions had been. Only Kyle Gibson made it through the season without missing a start, but every starter had good moments. The bullpen, which all along seemed to be a weak link, was aided by the addition of a couple of guys via trade and one guy via demotion from the starting rotation. Also assisting in the staff's improvement was better, more athletic defense, particularly in the outfield. Still, the Twins still ranked last in strikeouts and first in hits allowed while yielding the second-fewest walks, a continuation of the much-maligned "pitch-to-contact" meme from previous seasons.
     
    Looking at the roster, it is a combination of veterans and young players with a couple (Dozier and Plouffe) in between. Suzuki, Mauer, and Hunter are all in the second half of their careers, while youngsters handle the other positions. The pitching staff had many over-30 guys pitching, including almost all of the bullpen.
     
    In general, the offense needs to improve by getting on base more. Too much of the team's power is concentrated in right handed hitters, and more speed would help. On the mound, more power arms are needed. There are specific questions that need to be answered, as well. Here are five questions that need to be answered in the off-season and my takes on each one:
     
    1) What will Trevor May's role be for the 2016 Twins? May is one of the top arms on the Twins. While he wants to start and profiles to be a good one, I think he should be in the bullpen as the eighth inning guy, and perhaps as the closer. His stuff "played up" in the bullpen and he had several outings that were dominant.
     
    2) How can the Twins augment the catcher position? Kurt Suzuki had a 67 OPS+ and his backups were dreadful at the plate. Suzuki was among the worst at throwing out base stealers (his pitchers didn't help much) and there were too many unblocked pitches. I think there are two options--acquire a backup from outside the organization or get a starting replacement also from outside the organization. I don't know who that player is, but I think a lefty hitter who is respectable defensively. Ideally, Suzuki should either share time or be the backup.
     
    3) What of Torii Hunter? Hunter was a valuable presence who provided 22 homers, but he hit .242 with a .701 OPS at a premium offensive position. Hunter has stated that he doesn't want to be a part-time player and the Twins have top prospect Byron Buxton and minor league Player of the Year Max Kepler perhaps ready to help next year. Oswaldo Arcia also figures in here.
     
    4) Is it time for Trevor Plouffe to be traded? He has led the club in RBIs the last two years, provided steady and improved defense and has become a team leader. However, Miguel Sano looks the part of a superstar and shouldn't be a DH at 22 years of age. I think that it is in fact time. Plouffe is a good player, but he shouldn't stand in the way of Sano. The Twins could perhaps fill the catcher gap by trading Plouffe.
     
    5) Rick Nolasco is still under contract for two more years. He's been a total disappointment for the first two years of his contract. Can the Twins get out from under his contract? It would be great if Terry Ryan could slough off the contract, but I doubt it. I think Nolasco enters the 2016 season as one of the guys in the Twins rotation. That, in my opinion, seals the deal that May starts in the bullpen. It also indicates that JO Berrios and Tyler Duffey will have a mountain to climb in order to make the rotation to start the season. While it seems silly not to have the best arms starting the season, every rotation goes through changes over the course of the season. I see only eight guys on the short list of starters in the Twins' organization, including May. That isn't too much depth and might not be enough.
  10. stringer bell
    The Twins will enter 2016 after recording their best record since 2010. They have added several young players, most of whom are here to stay. As of today, they have some gaps, but overall have a decent team returning for next year. Four players are slated to be free agents--Mike Pelfrey, Torii Hunter, Brian Duensing, and Neal Cotts. Perhaps a player or two will be non-tendered. Candidates would be Casey Fien, Eduardo Nuñez, and Blane Boyer.
     
    Here is my current projection for the Opening Day 2016 Twins. It will have no rookies making their debuts and no trade acquisitions and I will assume that only one free agent is re-signed, either Cotts or Duensing.
     
    Pitchers: (12)--Phil Hughes, Ricky Nolasco, Tommy Milone, Kyle Gibson, Ervin Santana, Tyler Duffey, Ryan Pressly, Alex Meyer, Cotts or Duensing, Trevor May, Kevin Jepsen, and Glen Perkins.
     
    Catchers: (2)--Kurt Suzuki and Chris Herrmann.
     
    Infielders: (8)--Kennys Vargas, Danny Santana, Eduardo Nuñez, Joe Mauer, Brian Dozier, Eduardo Escobar, Trevor Plouffe and Miguel Sano
     
    Outfielders: (3)--Oswaldo Arcia, Aaron Hicks, and Eddie Rosario
     
    Some of these predictions will look pretty silly, I'm sure. I expect Oswaldo Arcia to get a last chance to be a productive player. This along with Byron Buxton's poor offensive showing at the close of 2015 will be enough to get Buxton more AAA time. I would expect he will be patrolling center field before Memorial Day. Another candidate to make the team would be Max Kepler, who probably needs some time in AAA, but before 2016 is over will have a regular spot on the club. The backup outfielders would be the backup infielders and perhaps Escobar and I think it won't be long before an outfielder is promoted.
     
    I have Nuñez surviving another spring. He has had a good year in 2015. He's a pretty good hitter, has some speed and defensive versatility. It is very possible the Twins will choose to go another way with that roster spot. I have youngsters Vargas and Santana as bench players. I'm pretty sure Vargas has an option, so he could easily not make the team, but if Trevor Plouffe is traded, current DH Sano becomes the third baseman and Vargas could be the primary DH. Backup catcher is a problem. The usual suspects from this season appear, but perhaps Stuart Turner will hit enough to bring his strong defense to the majors. I don't expect it on Opening Day, but I think it will happen sometime in 2016.
     
    Three starting pitchers have long-term contracts. Until and unless they are shown to be ineffective beyond repair when healthy, they are in the rotation. The best starters then are Milone and Gibson. That leaves the heralded JO Berrios to spend some more time in AAA, which would also be a smart business decision. I have listed Duffey as a bullpen option, despite his good work in the last quarter of the 2015 season and Trevor May as a big bullpen arm. Taylor Rogers could convert to to relief and take a spot I've given to Duensing/Cotts. The Twins also could go with O'Rourke, more of a pure LOOGy. I think Ryan Pressly had an underrated season before getting injured and my hope is that Alex Meyer has found it as a relief pitcher--he's been effective for the last several weeks. Meyer, May, Jepsen, and Perkins could be a very effective game-closing combination.
     
    I didn't list Casey Fien or Blane Boyer, veterans who have performed quite well this season, and in Fien's case for several seasons. Unfortuanately for them, their stuff doesn't play as well in this high-velocity, high strikeout bullpen era.
  11. stringer bell

    Tightly Packed

    By stringer bell,

    The Twins have one week remaining in a regular season which has seen them stay relevant throughout the entire season. One thing that has transpired in the course of the season is that a regular lineup has developed. The nine players with the most plate appearances on the year fill the nine positions on the field and in the batting order and these nine players are the ones getting the bulk of playing time during the stretch drive in September.
     
    I looked at yesterday's box score and made a couple of mental notes. The first was "no .300 hitters" and the thought was no one is close. Three players that won't qualify for the batting championship (Sano, Escobar, Rosario) could have the best batting average of the nine regulars. The likely high qualifier is Joe Mauer and he's hitting only .266. The next note to myself was "no truly bad hitter". The lowest average (.240) belongs to Dozier, who slugs and draws walks, so his OPS should be decent. Kurt Suzuki is toward the bottom (.244), but he's a catcher and not many catcher compile good hitting stats.
     
    Here's a look at the Twins' nine regulars for 2015 and where they rank in selected offensive stats:
     
    Name PAs BA OPS OPS+ OPS rank
     
    Sano 300 .277 .940 153 1
    Escobar 420 .268 .767 106 4
    Mauer 636 .266 .716 95 12
    Rosario 450 .265 .744 98 10
    Hicks 365 .259 .727 97 9
    Plouffe 608 .245 .744 100 8
    Suzuki 464 .244 .622 70 11
    Hunter 540 .242 .712 91 11
    Dozier 673 .240 .771 107 8
     
    For those devotees of WAR, here are the numbers courtesy of BBRef: Dozier (3.0), Plouffe (2.3), Rosario (2.3), Sano (2.1), Hicks (1.6), Escobar (1.5), Mauer (1.5), Suzuki (0.5) and Hunter (-0.5).
     
    Here are my conclusions: Recalling Sano, Rosario, and Hicks and making Escobar the regular shortstop earlier might have won another ballgame or two. Outside of Sano, there are no standouts here--Dozier had an All-Star first half, but despite the 28 homers, his numbers are off from last year. The Twins' offensive numbers have taken a step back, but for the position players, the biggest improvement has been defense.
  12. stringer bell
    September 1st is almost here. The Twins play Houston twice more and then they can have the luxury of an expanded roster going forward. They are certain to recall some players and a couple guys have earned a look with outstanding seasons. There are service time and 40-man roster considerations as well.
     
    This year, the Twins are in the wild card chase, so they won't recall young players just to get a look at them or grant playing time to see what they can do. The goal will be to recall players who will help them win games. Here's my thumbnail on the possible call-ups:
     
    Pitchers: The Twins probably need fortification of a overused bullpen, even though they already have eight guys pitching out of the bullpen. There are candidates for recall at Rochester.
     
    AJ Achter--He's had a good year in Rochester. He provided some innings when recalled by the Twins, although his numbers were skewed by his first couple of outings in blowouts. He's a near certainty to be recalled.
     
    Michael Tonkin--He has bounced between Rochester and the Twins, recording very good numbers in Triple A, but not doing enough to stay around with the major league club. Tonkin is a big hard-thrower who should provide strikeout potential. I'm sure he'll get yet another shot next month, but so far his development has been a disappointment.
     
    Alex Meyer--Bust? Maybe, but he has put together a pretty good stretch out of the bullpen for the last three weeks. Since August 1st, he has allowed only two runs in 16 innings, walking seven, while fanning 14. Meyer has a big fastball and potential to develop other plus pitches. If the Twins were out of the race, he probably would get a bunch of innings. As it is, he isn't certain of a recall--his overall numbers aren't very good. I think the Twins will recall him and see if maybe something has clicked for the big right hander.
     
    JO Berrios--Without question, his possible recall will be the most discussed on this site. Berrios is young, hard-working and has mastered two levels in 150+ innings of work in the minors. He has been exclusively a starting pitcher, but could be used as a key bullpen piece because of the number of innings his young arm has thrown. Business considerations are also present for Berrios. He isn't on the 40-man roster and adding service time now may cost the Twins money and a prime season from a guy who might become an ace. Finally, and this is my opinion, it would be nice to reward someone who has had a great minor league season, on the verge of dominant. I think the Twins will resist recalling Berrios for business and innings reasons, but if injury or ineffectiveness (I'm looking at you Ervin Santana!) present a clear role for him, they will call up their top pitching prospect.
     
    Position Players: The Twins have operated most of the second half with a three-man bench, hardly the optimum number of bench players. Certainly they will add a couple of hitters, looking for someone to provide a long ball or key pinch hit. Playing time on the field could be tough to get, especially with Aaron Hicks due to return from the disabled list on September 3rd.
     
    Kennys Vargas--Vargas has had a disappointing year, starting the season as the Twins' DH, but not holding the job. He has been demoted twice, the second time to AA. The numbers aren't dominant, but Vargas has done well since his second demotion. There is clearly a need for a pinch-hitter with power potential and Vargas would be the first candidate for that spot. Kennys would also be a near-lock to be on the 25-man roster if the Twins squeak into the playoffs. I expect Vargas on the bench for the Twins game on Tuesday vs. the White Sox.
     
    Oswaldo Arcia--Similar story to Vargas. He didn't set the world on fire or address his weaknesses while starting the season as the Twins' left fielder. Disabled, then demoted, he has failed to thrive. One hot streak has been overwhelmed by terrible offensive numbers. We don't know if the problem is physical or mental, but right now Arcia can't help the contending Twins to win games. I can't see him being recalled.
     
    Danny Santana--Yet another young Twins starting position player who disappointed if not outright failed for the major league team. Santana has been demoted twice and is more than holding his own as a Triple A player. He provides the Twins with some versatility (shortstop and center field) and a viable pinch running option. Santana should be back on September 1.
     
    Josmil Pinto--The sad story of 2015 just might have a better ending. Pinto was injured in spring training, optioned to Rochester to "get work" and then struggled and was injured. The problem was one or more concussions, which could spell the end of his career as a catcher. In the last month, Pinto has finally gotten on the field as a DH, rehabbed in the low minors and come back to Rochester. He hit a grand slam the other day and if his hitting has recovered, he could be another bench bat. I don't know if the Twins would consider him as a third catcher or not. Regardless, if the offensive part of his game is healthy, Pinto has shown he can be a big-league hitter. I'm guessing he gets recalled, but won't don the "tools of ignorance" unless there is an emergency.
     
    Jorge Polanco--Polanco has had a good year. He has spent the bulk of the season in Chattanooga and shown he can handle AA pitching. He competed well at Triple A and had another cup of coffee with the Twins. Polanco hasn't had a great year defensively. I don't think he profiles as a regular shortstop. As for recall, I don't think it would hurt to have him recalled, but probably only after the Lookouts finish their playoff run.
     
    Max Kepler--There is a case for him to be the Minor League Player of the Year for the Twins. He is leading the SL in several categories including the "saber triple crown" of OBP, Slugging and OPS. Kepler is on the 40-man roster and certainly will be looked at as an option in the outfield next year, especially with the implosion of Oswaldo Arcia. I think that he stays put until the Southern League playoffs are over. Depending on what has happened with the Twins in those couple weeks, perhaps he will get a look at the tail end of the season. As with Berrios, he has earned a promotion based on his performance on the field.
     
    To summarize, I think the Twins recall Vargas, Santana, Achter and Tonkin for sure. I think Meyer gets another shot and Pinto (if healthy) is added as well. Polanco and Kepler are added after the AA playoffs. Arcia goes home to heal whatever ails him and Berrios is on standby.
  13. stringer bell
    n 2016, barring a trade, the Twins will have five players under the age of 26 who profile to be good or better outfielders. Five of these players will have played for the Twins, and the sixth (Max Kepler) might make his debut this September. Here's a look at all six, with my view of strengths and weaknesses:
     
    Oswaldo Arcia--Strengths: Big Time left handed power. In 853 Twins' plate appearances, he has 36 homers and a .437 slugging average. Pedigree of hitting. Going into this year, Arcia dominated the minor leagues, hitting .314 with a .375 OBP, and played each level young for his age. Charisma. He's an emotional player, who loves to do well and celebrate his success. Weaknesses: Fielding. Watching Arcia in the field has ranged from entertaining to embarrassing. He has a good arm and covers enough ground, but has let several balls clank off his glove or fall to the ground. He has been guilty of taking bad at-bats to the field, losing focus and playing fundamentally unsound defense. Strikeouts. Even in this high-K era, Arcia qualifies as a strikeout machine. He has whiffed 259 times in his 853 PAs, well over 30% of the time. Platoon splits. Arcia has struggled against lefties. His OPS+ vs. port siders is 67 with a batting average of .231.
     
    Byron Buxton--Strengths: Tools, Obvious to all, Buxton has a wealth of athletic tools. He is the fastest man to ever wear a Twins uni, he has impressive bat speed and plentiful strength to hit for average and power, and a fine arm plus great fielding instincts. Work ethic. With all the tools, Buxton is both coachable and a hard worker. He profiles as a leadoff hitter with 50+ stolen base speed who would transition to the middle of the order. Weaknesses: Unproveness (is that a word?). Buxton has only 40 plate appearances and didn't thrive, hitting under .200. The slowest to develop of Buxton's tools are his hitting. He has started slowly at each level.Injuries. Buxton missed almost all of last year with three injuries. He only played a handful of games for the Twins before going on the DL.
     
    Aaron Hicks--Strengths: Again, tools. Hicks profiles as above average in all five tools. He isn't off the charts in any category, but is a fast runner with a cannon arm, he can reach the seats and reach base and cover ample ground in the outfield. Selectivity. As a hitter, Hicks chases less than most young players, and has always drawn his share of walks. Since coming back to the team this year, he has remained selective, while being a more aggressive as a hitter. Weaknesses: Platoon splits. Hicks lifetime average vs. right handers is below .200 (.568 OPS), while hitting almost 100 points higher vs. lefties and has an OPS of .860. Looking only at 2015, the splits are still there. he's hitting .237 (.639 OPS) against right handers, but continues to have a dominant side, hitting .404 with a 1.092 OPS against left handed pitching. Previous struggles. Hicks was a failure in 2013 and a disappointment in 2014, if he slumps will he tumble back to that level?
     
    Max Kepler--Strengths: Projectable sweet swing. From the start Kepler has always looked the part of a fine hitter. He hadn't played much baseball when signed by the Twins and needed plenty of time to get things in order, but he's always projected as a fine hitter.Athletic. Kepler is tall, but fast. He might lead his league in triples (passing Buxton) and has stolen 13 bases in 2/3 of a season. League Dominance. As of yesterday, Kepler led the SL, in hitting, on-base, slugging, and OPS. Versatility. Kepler is a lefty all the way, but has played all three outfield positions plus first base. He projects as a good defender at the corners, Weaknesses: Two levels to go. Kepler is only at AA, he hasn't played an inning at AAA or in the majors. Injuries. Max has had his share of injuries, which probably slowed his development to this point. He missed the Futures Game with a sore shoulder. Platoon splits. Going into this year, Kepler had struggled against left handed pitching. He has solved lefties this year, with an OPS above .850. Lack of Power. Kepler has only six homers this year, three in the last week. Power is often the last tool to come forward, but it is possible that at his peak, even if he blossoms, his line might more resemble Joe Mauer than Bryce Harper or Mike Trout.
     
    Eddie Rosario--Strengths: Solid Stroke. Eddie has been viewed as a solid hitter and carried that to the major leagues. Stands in against lefties. No discernible platoon splits. He's able to hit for about the same amount of power regardless of which hand the pitcher throws with. Aggressive. Rosario gets his hacks, plays in the field and runs the bases aggressively. It has caused some outs on the bases and a couple of errors, but the net has been positive. Versatile defender. Rosario has started multiple games in all three outfield positions and done fine at all three. He has enough range to play center and enough arm to play right. Weaknesses: Over aggressive. The flip side of Rosario's aggressiveness is that he chases pitches, runs into outs and takes too many risks in the field. Not dominant. Doubtful that Rosario will ever be a slugger or contend for a batting championship. He profiles mostly as "good", but not elite. Strike against him. Eddie was suspended for a drug of abuse, meaning that any other infractions would cost him a season.
     
    I am assuming that Kepler will be ready to help the Twins by sometime in the first half of next year, if not sooner. With the DH, the Twins could carry four of these five guys and have enough at-bats for all of them. However, five outfielders needing more than 500 plate appearances is one too many. Do the Twins deal one of these guys to get bullpen help, a catcher or a shortstop? Since they are all young, I would think that they need to choose one guy and give him up to address positions of relative weakness. My pick would be Arcia, mostly because of his struggles in the field. A case could be made for Hicks, Rosario or Kepler.
  14. stringer bell
    I'm jumping the gun by a day, but the Twins are approaching the All-Star break and they certainly qualify as contenders. After beating Detroit today, they are tied for the second best record in the league at eight games over .500. One can't help but be a little optimistic about the Twins chances for the last 74 games. Today was a high point, not only hammering Detroit's starting pitcher, but also the mid-game announcement that Brian Dozier would indeed make the 2015 All-Star team, all on the heels of the startling comeback the earned the Twins a near miraculous victory on Friday night.
     
    However, there are obvious flaws on the team. The leading percentage hitter currently is Joe Mauer, hitting in the mid-.270s and until this home stand the Twins had struggled to score runs for the better part of six weeks. We've seen a bullpen that is far from dominant and still have unsettled and unproductive positions (catcher and shortstop). The starting staff continues to allow far fewer runs than their peripherals would suggest.
     
    Since the Twins outstanding month of May, analysis has focused on how the club is winning and also if they can sustain that performance. Most analysts still think the club is suspect. A good example is Baseball Prospectus, which provides a Postseason Probability for each team. They currently peg the Twins at 21.6%, lower than the Tigers (2.5 games behind the Twins) and the Indians (4.5 behind Minnesota). This is supposedly scientific analysis.
     
    The team is far different that the one that opened the season in Detroit. Eddie Rosario has claimed an outfield spot, Aaron Hicks appears to be here to stay this year, and several members have changed in the bullpen. The rotation has added Ervin Santana to the rotation.
     
    I think more changes are in the offing. Either by trade or promotion, I think the bullpen will continue to be redone. Byron Buxton figures to return to Minnesota after a rehab and perhaps an option to AAA, Oswaldo Arcia has begun to pound the ball at Triple A,
     
    I am still not convinced the Twins are a playoff team, but it looks like they could easily be in it for the two and a half months. I'm predicting a couple of moves that will fortify the bullpen (perhaps trading for a lefty reliever and promoting a hard thrower) and also perhaps a trade for a catcher, who could help this year and beyond. I would expect improvement from the offense, combined with a bit of regression from the rotation.
     
    I have predicted 85 wins for the club since they broke camp in Florida. I hope that number is reached although I'm not sure if it will be enough to gain admission to the post season.
  15. stringer bell
    Okay, we're past the statistical halfway point in the season. Sometimes it takes a while to flesh out who can help a team for the present and the future and sometimes circumstances make that decision. However, the Twins still haven't made decisions about several positions and players. The team is in the race for a wild card and they have not solidified several positions on the team. Here's my take on the key decisions that need to be made.
     
    1-Shortstop. Danny Santana started the season as the regular, got demoted and now is back on the team. He showed some signs in the most recent series that he might start hitting and his tools at short are very good. Eduardo Escobar has started more in left field than short, but played over half the season at short last year and did well. Eduardo Nuñez has also been given several starts presumably in an effort to add offense. Nuñez isn't capable enough defensively, Santana hasn't produced after a standout rookie season, mostly played in center field, and Escobar has regressed from last year's numbers. My pick would be Escobar, who provides the highest floor and least risk going forward. Jorge Polanco also could figure in, but I can't see that he's ready to contribute.
     
    2-Outfield. Eddie Rosario has emerged as a regular outfielder. Torii Hunter has been a solid right fielder for the Twins. That leaves one person. The guy who has the most at-bats after Rosario and Hunter is Escobar. He's a novice in the outfield, but has been acceptable. Aaron Hicks has provided excellent defense in center, hasn't hit much, but seems much closer than he has been in previous trials. Byron Buxton played a week+, showed his tremendous potential, but also showed that he has a long way to go before he's an offensive force. Buxton is currently on the DL, and won't return for at least a few weeks. It is unknown whether he could step in right away or might need rehab. The Twins could also use an option and give him time at AAA. It is probably a no-brainer to go with Hicks until Buxton comes off the DL. The big question is what to do then. My guess is that Buxton goes to Rochester for rehab and unless he tears it up, is optioned there perhaps until September 1st. The other factor is Hicks. If his BA continues to dive and the OPS doesn't get above .600, it might be time to give up on him being a productive everyday player.
     
    3-Rotation. For now the decision has been made, Mike Pelfrey stays in the rotation and Trevor May is in the bullpen. May has a future in the Twins' rotation and this demotion really doesn't change that. I actually think that May can help the struggling Twins bullpen. He has strikeout ability and can get the fastball up to near-dominating numbers. I do believe the leash for Pelfrey can't be that long. His last two starts were failures and his peripherals suggest he isn't as good as his ERA might suggest. Pelf is a free agent after this year. Some have also suggested Tommy Milone should be optioned or put in the bullpen. I think Milone provides a bit too much to be pushed aside. He is still relatively young and under team control. Ricky Nolasco has missed over a month with an ankle issue and so far he hasn't solved the problem. I wouldn't be surprised to see Nolasco get surgery and miss most of or the entire remainder of the season. I agree with the Twins decision, but if Pelfrey gets knocked around in his next start, it might be a short demotion for May. Pelfrey throws hard enough that maybe he also can help the bullpen.
     
    4-Bullpen. This isn't about changing roles, it is about changing faces. Aaron Thompson was a good story and a fine contributor for the first six weeks of the season. He just can't get people out anymore. He needs to be optioned immediately. Blaine Boyer was a surprise, but has done a slow fade for the last month. Boyer probably deserves to stay on the team, but should not be the high-leverage bullpen piece as he has been used thus far. Brian Duensing was miserable, but has shown some signs of improvement lately, no runs and only two hits, one walk and five strikeouts in the last 7.2 innings. The temporary addition of a starter in the bullpen might mean that only one pitcher should be added. I think AJ Achter has pitched well enough to get another start. Lefty Taylor Rogers has shown he can dominate AAA left handed hitters as a starter. I think he should be moved to Rochester's bullpen immediately and if he flourishes, should get a chance to help the big team. If Ryan Pressly is disabled, another name to consider is Mike Tonkin, who seems to be able to dominate in AAA, but hasn't done well enough to stick in the majors. For the record, demote Thompson, move up Achter and see if there is a good bullpen arm available on the trade market.
  16. stringer bell
    There are a lot of decision to make with the Twins' position players. About the only completely sure thing is that Brian Dozier will be in the lineup every day. There are options for the Twins and the team has a manager without a long track record, so we don't know which direction he will go on many of the choices to be made. The merry month of May saw an extremely productive offense combined with improved defense from the position players. So far, June has shown a lot of the reverse of that.
     
    Let's look at the issues and digest both my predictions and opinions. Catcher has been a weak link this year. Starter Kurt Suzuki has predictably regressed, both on offense and defense. His throwing actually seems a bit better this year, but I believe that has more to do with pitchers doing a better job of holding runners than with Suzuki improving. Suzuki is durable, but I would much rather see him catching less if a better option could be found. Far more balls have found their way to the backstop this year than last year. Also, Suzuki really hit left handed pitching last year. This year, not so much. Internal options to improve the position are limited. Eric Fryer has put up good numbers at AAA, but he hasn't hit in the majors and he's almost 30 years old, Josmil Pinto has shown a good bat, but has defensive and concussion issues and Stuart Turner is a fine defender, but can't stay above the Mendoza line in AA. I have suggested for a while going for a good two-way catcher (Jonathan Lucroy or someone like that) and sending prospects. The second option would be to acquire someone to platoon with Zuke. We've seen guys do this before, many guys pretty unheralded until they are used properly. The third option would be to trade for a blocked prospect (for example SF's Susac).
     
    First base. Is Mauer done? The supremely talented, exceptionally athletic player of a few years ago has hit like Chris Parmelee (without the power). The bat seems slow, the swing longer and the results have been dismal. Right now, he is the worst regular first baseman in baseball. It's not just lack of power, he isn't even getting on base. Defensively, he looks more athletic than some, but remains a fish out of water, seemingly always hesitating when there is any choice to be made. The Twins are stuck with Mauer and his contract. He will have an incredibly long leash before there is serious consideration of benching him, but I don't think Molitor can stand for him to continue to hit third.
     
    Brian Dozier is the Twins best positon player. The only decision that needs to be made is where he hits in the lineup. I've liked him hitting first, but with Buxton in the majors, he should be shuffling down. When the move is made for Buxton to hit first, I would move Dozier to third and consider having Mauer hit second.
     
    Shortstop. I like Escobar quite a bit. He had a fine season last year and I think he would be an above-average bat and glove if he got regular at bats as the shortstop. Danny Santana started the season as the shortstop, but has regressed hard. He is intriguing because of the tools, fast hands and feet and a rocket arm, but he has to stop chasing pitches and recognize which ones to swing at. Jorge Polanco also figures at short. I'm not convinced he can play well enough defensively, but he looks like the most complete hitter of the shortstop candidates.
     
    Trevor Plouffe is a solid third baseman. He will stay there at least until Miguel Sano is ready to go and perhaps longer than that. I visualized Plouffe as a guy who could move around, but he has been good enough at third that he should stay there for the Twins until Sano proves he can be an upgrade. Trevor could be a valuable trade chip if the Twins go with Sano. I think Sano sees some time in the majors this year. The young slugger needs to improve on defense before he can move Plouffe down the road. My third and final decisions blog will discuss the outfield and why the Twins probably need to trade a prospect or two.
  17. stringer bell
    DocBauer has started a thread similar to what I intend to write. In my case, I'm going to provide my opinion as well as naming issues, so I decided to make a blog entry. There are a lot of issues, but many of those issues are not about weakness, but strength. That is an interesting situation to be in for the Twins, since they have lost more than 90 games in each of the last four seasons.
     
    I'll start with the pitching staff. The Twins possess seven starters, none of whom is a #1, but all who are capable, or so it appears. Hughes, Santana, and Nolasco have contracts that run through at least 2018. Gibson and May are not yet eligible for arbitration and won't be after this season. Milone is eligible for arbitration, but would be under team control for this year and three more years, and Pelfrey will be a free agent after this year. Things can change, but currently that is two too many starters. There are prospects getting close, as well. It is possible the Twins may trade one of their pitchers. The TD community prefers the (so far) overpaid Nolasco, but with that contract, it is unlikely that they'll find a taker unless they get a bad contract in return. If I'm the GM, I keep my cards close to the vest, but Milone and Pelfrey have to be available. I'm thinking of a deadline trade that is most difficult to make, one that can help both teams this year and beyond.
     
    The bullpen is weak. Their ERA is 12th in the 15-team American League, and their peripherals are even worse. Much of the blame has fallen on veterans Brian Duensing and Tim Stauffer (Stauffer was just DFAed), but even their effective bullpen arms allow too many hits and strike out too few. The problem with left handed relievers, outside of closer Glen Perkins, is especially grim. Left handers Caleb Thielbar, Duensing, and Aaron Thompson have allowed far too many base runners, 48 hits and 20 walks in 44.2 innings, with most of the good work coming in April from Thompson. I think one of the lefties will be switched out for Thielbar soon, but another left handed reliever is needed and probably gets acquired from outside the organization. Right handed relief has been better, and there are more options. Blaine Boyer has been a surprise, Casey Fien has been fine, when healthy, and Pressly, Tonkin, and Graham have all had their moments. I think a true power arm for the late innings combined with a solid lefty would transform the bullpen. Many relievers become available for less than monumental returns at the trading deadline. I would hope the Twins could acquire a couple of arms for prospects lower than the top 30 prospects.
  18. stringer bell
    The Twins didn't score many runs in Boston until they faced a knuckleballer and took advantage of leaky Boston defense. They had one good inning in two games against the Brewers. They still have a good number of runs scored and a positive run differential. They sit in first place by one game with the second-place Royals due in town Monday.
     
    In the very successful month of May, the Twins were led by the four guys who usually hit in the first four spots in the order. After a hot first half of the month, Hunter has leveled off and still carries good numbers. Mauer slumped much of the month, but managed to drive in an inordinate amount of runs by being very successful with runners on base, he is showing signs of warming up, but has a long way to reach his career norms. Plouffe is currently in a deep slump after being a consistent run producer and power threat for the first two months. Finally, Dozier remains hot, raising his average above .260 while on an extra-base hit rampage. The club needs help from someone beside those four guys.
     
    Twins Daily has had plenty of people complaining about the position players on the team. Shane Robinson, Eduardo Nuñez, Danny Santana, and Chris Herrmann all have detractors who think they shouldn't be on the 25-man roster. Of course, there remain 13 pitchers, leaving one less bench player. Oswaldo Arcia, Kennys Vargas and Josmil Pinto have all played for the Twins and are at Rochester now waiting to be recalled.
     
    The pitching staff also has suspects among their ranks, probably all in the bullpen. Brian Duensing's numbers are terrible, Tim Stauffer has failed to impress, and Aaron Thompson has regressed hard. With Michael Tonkin, AJ Achter and Lester Oliveros laboring in Rochester, it would seem to make sense to part company with the soft tossing older veterans.
     
    Since the club is in first place, perhaps the pressure isn't as great to make a move. However, they probably need to make a move or two before the current lull becomes a full-blown slump. If I were sitting in the GM's chair, I would send Danny Santana to Rochester and replace him with Vargas. Santana seems to have lost confidence and a trip to Rochester might restore that confidence. Vargas' numbers in AAA have been good (SSS) and the club desperately needs a threat (preferably LH) to hit behind Plouffe. If the bullpen is settled after the next turn of starters, perhaps they can reduce the bullpen. The obvious candidates to be let go would be Duensing and Stauffer, but it wouldn't surprise me if Aaron Thompson is optioned instead. Perhaps then it would be time for Arcia to return and try his luck in the outfield.
     
    It is less than one month from Ervin Santana getting back and pitching with the Twins. Another pitching decision would have to be made at that time. As long as they are in the hunt, development as a major leaguer takes second place to winning games. It will be interesting to see what happens with calendars turning from spring to fall.
  19. stringer bell
    After two straight convincing wins, the Twins stand at 26-18, eight games over .500 for the first time since 2010. It is early, but so far the record says "contention". The record says that the Twins have improved, but a case can be made that the whole thing is "smoke and mirrors". Statistics tell a conflicting story, but the deeper you dig, the more amazing it is that the Twins are among the top teams in the league.
     
    The way you count wins and losses in this game is by the number of runs scored. The Twins are doing quite well by this simplest statistic. They have scored 204 runs and allowed 186, that is a run differential of +18, fourth best in the AL, behind Kansas City, Houston and (surprise!) Toronto. Breaking it down a bit further, the Twins score the third-most runs per game, that is very good. They are seventh in fewest runs permitted per innings pitched, so slightly above average. How they come to score that many runs and permit that few is where the smoke and mirrors comes in.
     
    Let's start with the offense. In this era of limited run-scoring, no one is hitting like they did ten years ago. The Twins 204 runs in 44 games is an average of 4.64 runs per game which would yield 751 runs in a full season--the 2004 Twins scored 780 runs and finished tenth in runs scored. Minnesota's team batting average so far this year is .257, good for third in the league however, the team OBP is 11th, team slugging is 11th and team OPS is 12th. It isn't home runs, either. The Twins rank 13th out of 15 in in long balls and have given up five more homers than they've hit. Somehow, the Twins have managed to score more runs per game than all but two teams. Last year's team also overproduced when viewing their on-base and slugging. One more point, it isn't the running game or more accurately stolen bases. The Twins are in the bottom half of both stolen bases and stolen base percentage.
     
    Pitching and fielding comprise defense. I don't know if it is pitching or fielding or both, but the Twins in the last four years have permitted either the most or second most runs in each of those four years. This year, eight teams are allowing more runs per inning pitched. Even more than the hitting, this result seems to fly in the face of the statistics that should support improvement. Minnesota is dead last in strikeouts, batting average against and hits allowed. They are tenth or worse in OBP against, OPS against and home runs allowed yet the team is allowing 4.23 runs per game.
     
    I don't believe the positive runs differential (and 59% winning percentage) can continue with such poor supporting numbers. If the Twins are going to continue to surprise their fans, they need to erase the gap between the stats that predict run-scoring and actual runs scored. Other teams have beaten the odds for portions of seasons, but eventually the law of averages catches up. More games like the last two will do wonders for all the numbers.
  20. stringer bell
    The Twins started playing better baseball sometime during their previous road trip. They lost two of three to a good KC club and then were shut out 2-0 by King Felix. I believe it was after Hernandez blanked the Twins that Molitor made some lineup changes. Hunter had been moved to #2 which freed Dozier to hit cleanup. BD looked lost there, Santana had drawn zero walks and was hovering near the Mendoza line and Trevor Plouffe was, at the time, easily the hottest hitter on the team. Let's look at those moves, shall we?
    Hunter: Torii was moved to second in the order after about a week at cleanup. His bat warmed immediately, but in the past week or so, he has been on fire. Overall as the #2 hitter, Torii has posted a .379/.584/.963 slash line in almost 100 plate appearances.
    Santana: After having an outstanding run as the Twins' leadoff guy in 2014, Danny was having a hard time getting it going this year. Santana has posted only a .235 OBP (and batting average) in the #1 slot in the lineup. He has slumped a bit, as of late, but still has posted an improved .333/.429/.762 in the #9 hole.
    Plouffe: Trevor was the fourth guy to log multiple games as the cleanup hitter. The Twins started with Hunter, tried Vargas for a couple games and moved on to Dozier, before elevating Dozier to lead off and moving Plouffe to #4. As I noted earlier, Plouffe was the hottest hitter on the club when the move was made. As the cleanup guy, he has done just fine--slashing .367/.462/.829. Since being moved to the cleanup spot, Plouffe has been very consistent, reaching base in every game and slamming three homers accumulating 14 RBI.
     
    Dozier: Brian did well as the Twins' lead off guy last year, and was slotted there after being displaced by Hunter at #2 and then struggling as the cleanup hitter for about a week. Some have thought he isn't a very good fit as a lead off guy. I think he is excellent in that role. Dozier hasn't hit for a big average, but he gets on base. When he does reach, Dozier is the club's best base runner. Dozier also sees more pitches than any other player on the team. He does strike out a lot, but also draws a lot of walks. Dozier's slash line in the #1 hole: .360/.538/.898.
     
    I would imagine that improvement was due anyway, but it seems that Molitor made sound lineup changes at the right time and put the right people in the proper spots, at least for now. Until the offense cools, I would imagine that the four guys listed will stay in the spots where they have been productive.
  21. stringer bell
    Today the posts have mostly been negative with three young players optioned to AAA. Many have pointed out that the rebuilding Twins won't have a single rookie from their system on the 25-man roster going north. The average age of the team won't be considerably different.
     
    Despite all of this, I'm optimistic that the Twins will improve. The next wave is very close and they could provide a real boost. I have predicted/advocated for Hicks to be demoted since the end of the regular season and while Schafer/Robinson isn't optimum, the better of Hicks or Rosario should be ready before mid-season.
     
    The pitching rotation will be better. Any regression from Hughes should be matched by regression for Nolasco. I think Gibson will be really good and Santana will be the best #4 starter the Twins have had since the 90s. I hope the leash isn't long for the bullpen.
     
    I have predicted 85 wins, really against all odds. I think there is enough talent there to improve even though the division will be tough. It will take filling of inside straights and rolling sevens, but I'm sticking with 85 wins, with or without Meyer, May, Rosario or Hicks and a bunch of relievers.
  22. stringer bell
    Air travel isn't fun and while I am not a frequent flier, I have flown enough no longer to be fascinated by small aisles, nuts and soda, and the people watching. I sat alone in coach and was joined by an delightful Floridian/Minnesotan returning to Minnesota for a funeral. It passed the time and temporarily made me forget about the nasty URI I managed to get in the sunshine state.
     
    We looked out the window and saw snow, probably starting somewhere around the Iowa/Minnesota border, maybe north of that. We were back in cold climate, where the jacket I brought with me could be put to use for the first time in seven days.
     
    I have been wondering how to summarize the (likely final) trip I made to Fort Myers. There is a bit of melancholy because I think I have figured out the driving--I know the major arteries and where they are in relation to most of the places I want to get to. Now, I probably won't use that information soon, if at all. I feel comfortable at Twins' Spring Training. I mostly know where to go to see what I want to see. I have thoroughly enjoyed watching the young players in the back fields.
     
    This year, I met more Twins Daily regulars than ever before. It is great to put a face to a screen name and to know more about a fan than whether he liked Gardy or Rick Anderson. Specifically, I met Halsey Hall, Ashbury John and thrylos, along with three other people who read but don't post. Good guys all, with disparate views on most issues in baseball (and probably world view). I know I owe Ashbury a beer, so I guess I'll have to pay up at Target Field this summer if he and I are at the same game.
     
    Some singular thoughts: Aaron Hicks is a bigger man than Torii Hunter. I saw them take BP together and Hicks is definitely taller and probably just as wide as Torii. Speaking of size, Ervin Santana is not a big guy. He is listed at 6'2" 185, and I think especially the weight might be an exaggeration. Ricky Nolasco looks a bit trimmer than last year, perhaps yielding better results because of that. The Twins have a lot of big 'uns--Meyer, May, Tonkin, Pelfrey, Wheeler, Hughes, Gibson to name a few.
     
    Hard throwers are not far off: Burdi and Reed both seem to be ticketed for AA, and both throw hard. Meyer will start in Rochester and Oliveros, Tonkin, and more will be laboring in the 'pen.
     
    The Twins long-term and short-term future will probably be answered en español. Along with the already arrived Vargas, Santana, Pinto, and Arcia, both the upper and lower minors are filled with Hispanic ballplayers with Berrios, Sano, Polanco, Rosario, and more poised to contribute as soon as this year. In spring training, minor leaguers not participating watch the minor league games. The language amongst the viewers and in the dugouts is principally Spanish.
     
    I understand that the Twins are working hard to accommodate this influx. There are more coaches with Hispanic names and the team demands the players take English lessons. The cultural change isn't easy and I hope the club continues to go out of their way to help these young men in a new country with different standards and a different language.
     
    I am going with an optimistic view for 2015, based on rolling a bunch of sevens and filling inside straights. The talent is abundant at Century Link Complex. Some way, somehow, that is going to equate to many more wins in 2015 for the Minnesota Twins.
  23. stringer bell
    Heading out this morning. Yesterday, there was minor league action plus BP for position players who didn't make the trip to Clearwater. Ervin Santana pitched the first four innings of the Triple A game and was unspectacular, one run in four innings-probably a half dozen strikeouts. It was home run derby on the AA side with Twins' farmhands connecting for five long balls.
     
    I finally met TD's own Halsey Hall and a couple of lurkers, whose names will be withheld to protect them. Nice people all around. I truly enjoyed my time in Florida. Needless to say, it has gone fast. I will write a longer summary tomorrow unless I spend too much time shoveling snow!
  24. stringer bell
    The minor league intra-squad games for Sunday were cancelled, giving the young players their first day off on quite awhile. The fans at the complex were able to watch the left-behind major leaguers do PFP and for the hitters to take BP. Among the players left behind were Hicks, Hunter, Robinson, Suzuki, Mauer, Dozier, Nunez and Escobar.
     
    A couple notes about BP. Dozier hit the most balls over the fence, but Kelly (who ran the PFP) really encouraged Dozier every time he hit the ball up the middle or to right field. Escobar has surprising power especially from the right side. Finally, 74-year-old Phil Roof threw BP. If I'm on half as good of shape as him when I'm 74, I'll be a happy man.
     
    John Bonnes went to Jupiter (FL) so I didn't see him. Ashbury came to the park and we both met Thrylos, another solid TDer. Still looking for Halsey on my last full day on Florida. With vary-cay time winding down, I am starting to look both ahead to the season and back at the Spring Training experience. That will probably be a blog entry when I return to snowy Minnesota.
  25. stringer bell
    With all the TD regulars around, there isn't much to add about baseball. I haven't seen Halsey, Thrylos, or John, but all are indicating they will be watching the minor league intra-squad game today. Look forward to meeting and meeting up with you guys! I believe Ash could be there as well.
     
    A couple of positives: Graham looked very good yesterday and Mauer got three hits, including a gapper to right-center. Pinto got beat up by Adam Jones's follow through (not good). That's all for now. Hope to see a bunch of you in person today.
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