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stringer bell

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Blog Entries posted by stringer bell

  1. stringer bell
    Day 3 in Fort Myers yielded similar weather and the start of a pattern before heading to the ball fields. The morning ritual would be "bathroom, blog, breakfast".
     
    The minor league activity yesterday was well covered by Thrylos and Ashbury John. I will add only a couple things: when Perkins pitched, standing behind the screen with us common folk, were Strib writers Lavelle E Neale and Patrick Reusse. I shook Patrick's hand and chatted with him for a moment. The scribes left when Perk did.
     
    We arrived early enough to watch some major league BP. Hicks, Robinson and Torii were one group. We watched five or six turns and Hicks hit rightly for all but one turn versus Phil Roof, a rightly. The other group we watched was Mauer, Suzuki, and Plouffe. Tom Kelly was at the minor league games, in uniform with his fungo bat, but not sitting in the dugout. He looks pretty good, but isn't moving real fast.
     
    That's all for today. More tomorrow.
  2. stringer bell
    Day two of my Fort Myers experience featured baseball. After a bit more room jangling, we got to Century Link hereafter known as Hammond or Twins Spring Training camp at 10 AM. We checked the minor league fields and watched pitcher's drills. The Rays were to be the opposition for the Twins farmhands on this warm spring day.
     
    Well before first pitch, we made the acquaintance of TD's own Ashbury John, who is in Fort Myers, living it up while his significant other slaves over a hot computer (I jest). John is a nice guy, much younger than me, who has somehow managed to escape the bonds of employment (voluntarily). We had a nice conversation on several light topics--life, death, family, marriage, WAR, Aaron Hicks--and agreed on many things,but not Shane Robinson. Ash and I tried to smoke out TD's Halsey Hall, using Trevor Plouffe references as bait, but either Halsey wasn't there or he was too smart for our ploy.
     
    With my precision timing intact, I left the minor league games just when they started just in time to miss the first inning of the tussle with the O's. I didn't miss Ervin giving up three straight hits and two runs in the second inning. Santana yielded another run the next inning, but looked better in the fourth. Ash joined us with the score 3-1 and together we witnessed some squandered opportunities resulting in a 3-2 defeat at the hands of the Baltimores.
     
    If I have more to say about the Twins, I will put it in the game thread. I want to close with an endorsement--a Fort Myers trip for a frozen Twins fan is a good thing. More tomorrow.
  3. stringer bell
    I will be at spring training for the fourth straight year. I have watched three straight non-contending teams gear up for a disappointing regular season. I have seen impressive individual performances that didn't stand up to regular season pressures. I have seen guys showing obvious potential take a step from prospect to established player and others not be able to establish themselves. I have seen comments that seem to espouse an open competition for almost every spot on the roster and also have seen arguments that spring training means either very little or nothing at all.
     
    I think spring training means different things to different players. Established players are there to get in shape for the grind of a 162 game season and perhaps work on a new skill or weakness. Some guys are just trying to make a good impression, so that if a vacancy occurs or there is a chance for a role player with a specific skill, they have the confidence of the field staff. Finally, some are competing for roster spots or places in the rotation. Here's my take on each member of the 40-man roster:
     
    Established veterans: All of these guys have a place guaranteed on the Opening Day roster and are all but certain in their role going into the season. Spring Training is a time for them to get ready for the season ahead, with no stress about making the club or getting opportunities to contribute. Phil Hughes, Ricky Nolasco, Ervin Santana, Glen Perkins, Brian Duensing, Casey Fien, Kurt Suzuki, Joe Mauer, Brian Dozier, Trevor Plouffe, Oswaldo Arcia, and Torii Hunter. That is almost half of the spots on the Opening Day Roster.
     
    Young players looking to establish themselves: Players that may have been with the team for most of 2014, but haven't performed well enough long enough to be sure things. Caleb Thielbar, Kyle Gibson, Kennys Vargas, Danny Santana.
     
    Players looking to expand or enlarge their role: Guys penciled in for utility roles or perhaps a pitcher looking for a bigger role in games. Eduardo Escobar, Eduardo Nuñez, Jordan Schafer, Tim Stauffer and perhaps Josmil Pinto.
     
    Role players making a case: LOOGy and 3rd catchers hoping that their particular skill will get them a recall at some point. Aaron Thompson, Logan Darnell, and Chris Herrmann.
     
    Competitors for bullpen, rotation and center field: These guys could win a spot on the team going north or be sent out to the minors. It largely depends on how they, and the guys they are competing with, perform during spring training. JR Graham, Trevor May, Alex Meyer, Mike Pelfrey, Tommy Milone, Lester Oliveros, Michael Tonkin, Aaron Hicks, and perhaps Eddie Rosario.
     
    No chance to make the roster, plenty of chance to impress: AJ Achter, Stephen Pryor, Jason Wheeler, Jorge Polanco, Miguel Sano, and perhaps Eddie Rosario.
  4. stringer bell

    Optimism/Pessimism

    By stringer bell,

    The current Twins Forum is filled with prognostication and speculation. There really isn't much else to talk about until the team starts Spring Training. Many comments have been written in reference to disturbing predictions from outside of Twins Territory: Being picked in the bottom five by an ESPN writer and being given an over/under of 68.5 in Las Vegas. The realists have joined the negatives in predicting a long, losing season. There is certainly a realistic basis for such predictions/projections. Several players could regress after having big season last year, as well as almost all of the incumbents in the bullpen. The Twins still have defense and range issues in the outfield.
     
    Some have pointed out that the club closed it's run deficit dramatically last year, added a 111 OPS+ outfielder, who would have been in the top three of the Twins triple crown offensive categories, and added a solid pitcher to the starting rotation to bolster their biggest weakness last year. That combined with the coming of age of top prospects and improvement by veterans who are under 30 or who had seasons far worse than their track records would mean a successful season and a chance to contend.
     
    If I have to choose one camp from the two schools of thought that I have mentioned, I would choose the optimistic view of the Twins' chances. A return to career norms for the likes of Mauer and Nolasco can and should make up for regression from surprises and "breakouts" last year. If position players, starters or relievers don't cut it, there are higher-upside prospects ready or close to ready to take their place. I don't expect the squad that breaks camp to play the Tigers on Opening Day to be good enough to contend, but I do think that the roster and the players on it will evolve to be much improved from their performances in the last four years.
     
    I don't think the Twins will win the division or claim a wild card, there are too many question marks that have to turn out well for the team, but I think that it could happen and that the team has to start the season with the expectation that they will contend. I do expect improvement and the blueprint for a perennial contender coming out of the 2015 season.
  5. stringer bell

    More Power!

    By stringer bell,

    I have followed the Twins since they moved to Minnesota from DC. In the early days, the Twins excelled in hitting home runs. They had plenty of power at many positions led by perennial home run king Harmon Killebrew, who led the league in homers six times. However, since Mr. Nixon said "I am not a crook" (and Harmon declined), the Twins have had a severe power shortage. In the forty-plus years since 1973, the Twins have outhomered their opponents in only three seasons and by narrow margins.
     
    The 2014 Twins scored a lot of runs, but would have been an elite offensive club if they had hit more long balls. What is exciting is the promise that in the future they will have the players to turn around games with one swing. Oswaldo Arcia hit 20 homers in just 400 plate appearances last season. If his homer rate stays unchanged, he would hit 30 in a full season with 600+ PAs. Kennys Vargas hit nine homers in an extended trial late in the season. Again, with full-time plate appearances, that total should be in the mid-twenties for a full season. Add top prospect Miguel Sano, who homered 35 times in less than 500 PAs in his last minor league season (in pitcher-friendly and homer-averse leagues), and the Twins have a prospective middle of the order cluster that could easily hit 90 or more homers. Sano, Arcia and Vargas are all young and would figure to increase their power numbers.
     
    I haven't mentioned yet the Twins leader in home runs the last two years--Brian Dozier. He brings significantly above average power to a position that the Twins traditionally have filled with slap hitters (his last two seasons both set records for home runs by a Twins second baseman). Beyond that, current Twins backup catcher Josmil Pinto would also profile to hit a lot of homers with full-time plate appearances.
     
    Whenever Sano arrives, the Twins would figure to have above-average home run production. I expect that the Twins will close the gap in long balls next year and perhaps out-homer their oppontents for the first time in more than a decade. An increase in power might cover regression in other areas.
  6. stringer bell
    Before the Arizona Fall League began I started beating the drum for Eddie Rosario to make the Twins out of spring training in 2015. The signing of Torii Hunter as a free agent makes an already long shot into a near impossibility, barring injury. That is all right because we can project and predict all we want on Twins Daily and only highlight when we are right!
     
    Since Hunter's acquisition has occurred, I decided I would try to project again who will come north with the 2015 Twins. Here's my latest take:
     
    Pitchers: (12) Phil Hughes, Kyle Gibson, Rickie Nolasco, Alex Meyer, Justin Masterson, Mike Pelfrey, Lester Oliveros, Brian Duensing, Caleb Thielbar, Michael Tonkin, Casey Fien, Glen Perkins.
     
    Catchers: (2) Kurt Suzuki, unknown backup catcher acquired in Pinto trade
     
    Infielders: (7) Joe Mauer, Brian Dozier, Danny Santana, Trevor Plouffe, Kennys Vargas, Eduardo Escobar, Eduardo Nuñez.
     
    Outfielders: (4) Oswaldo Arcia, Jordan Schafer, Shane Robinson, Torii Hunter
     
    I originally was going to include Milone in the starting rotation and Meyer or May in the bullpen. Milone has an option remaining and I think the Twins will want to see what they have with Meyer, who has still not thrown his first major league pitch at age 25. They've seen a bit of May and both he and Milone will get a shot. I also believe the Twins will sign one veteran for the starting rotation. I have been calling for Masterson since before the '14 season was over. He's my pick to have a Hughes-like breakout.
     
    In the bullpen, two hard throwers are in line to get a real shot this year--Tonkin and Oliveros. Pelfrey succeeds Swarzak as the long man, hopefully getting little work in the first month or so. It wouldn't surprise me to see Big Mike get another shot at starting. If he's fully healthy, Pelfrey can be more than serviceable. That just hasn't happened in his two-year tenure with the Twins. Young reinforcements are on the doorstep for the bullpen. I hope the Twins are willing to transition to younger, harder throwers as the season progresses.
     
    I have not named a backup catcher to Suzuki. I think the Twins will be looking to trade Pinto or trade for a backup catcher that fits with Suzuki--that would be a youngish defense-first LH hitter. I don't know if such a guy exists, but if the Twins can find such a player, they can and should snap him up.
     
    Barring a trade, the starting infield is set. Santana gets the nod at short, although other factors could move him back to the outfield. Escobar is the utility guy, who gets starts at second, short and third. Nuñez is the 25th man, capable of starting at short, third, and left, also right and second in a pinch.
     
    I have stated that Aaron Hicks must have AAA time to prove himself, rebuild his confidence and master the next level that he hadn't handled up to now. That means a platoon of minor league signing Shane Robinson and waiver claim Jordan Schafer are my center fielders. I expect Rosario or Hicks to claim the job from Schafer by Memorial Day, but when the Twins open in Comerica Park on Bert Blyleven's birthday, I'm going with the non-prospects to start the season.
     
    I expect much better performance from the back end of the rotation, enough the negate any regression Hughes might suffer and enough to lift the Twins close to contention and with a surprise or two, above .500.
     
    Here's my opening day lineup assuming Verlander gets the nod for the Tigers:
     
    SS Danny Santana
    RF Torii Hunter
    1B Joe Mauer
    3B Trevor Plouffe
    LF Oswaldo Arcia
    2B Brian Dozier
    DH Kennys Vargas
    C Kurt Suzuki
    CF Jordan Schafer
     
    P Phil Hughes
  7. stringer bell

    Intangibles

    By stringer bell,

    The signing of Torii Hunter has brought off-the-field issues back to the fore for the Twins. Part of the reason for signing Hunter has been for clubhouse leadership, mentoring of young players, and also bring back fans to the park. Hunter's pros and cons in these areas have been analyzed more than the break on Phil Hughes' spike curve.
     
    I weighed in on several threads saying that it wasn't possible to measure if there would be any effect and I doubted there would be much effect anyway. This commentary does bring up questions about the Twins' clubhouse and whether a lack of leadership has been at the root of the Twins' struggles for the last four years.
     
    I am of the opinion that talent and winning are much more a component than whether Torii Hunter or Kirby Puckett are a positive clubhouse influence. I think that some of the guys who have been looked at as clubhouse leaders are more likely just the gregarious guys who give good quotes to the media.
     
    The Twins have had a succession of nice guys who are accessible such as Dozier, Cuddyer, Hunter and Puckett. I don't know if all of them were truly leaders or just media darlings. Guys like Joe Mauer have never been vocal, but they might be leaders just as well. To me, it is still much more about talent than it is about attitude.
  8. stringer bell
    I just checked today's AFL game and Eddie Rosario got a double in his first at-bat. We Twins fans shouldn't get too worked up about minor league baseball played in Arizona in October and November. However, there isn't much else Twins related to follow, so all of a sudden it becomes important that Eddie Rosario is hitting .400 in off-season ball.
     
    Having said that, Rosario is following the script he needs to follow to make his Twins' debut early in 2015. He is undoing the tough season he had in AA and showing that he can play and excel with the best American prospects in baseball. As I write this, Rosario leads all AFL hitters in batting average. He is on the leaderboard in hits, stolen bases, and OBP. Most reports have him playing a more than respectable left field, with a couple of games in center. He has hit both lefties and right handers.
     
    To further his chances, Rosario needs to continue to hit in the remainder of the AFL and carry those results forward to Spring Training. I still think it would take a "perfect storm" for Eddie to break camp with the Twins, but with each success in the off-season, the perfect storm becomes more likely.
     
    I have said before that Aaron Hicks' two partial seasons with the Twins should not provide him with a leg up in making the club in 2015. His offensive performance was too dismal and his defense was adequate, certainly not enough to justify a roster spot. If Rosario outplays Hicks in the spring, he should be in front of him for promotion or for making the club. The Twins need to have more than Hicks and Rosario competing for a starting spot. With all the flux in the Twins' outfield, there is a chance that Eddie Rosario can undo all that went wrong in the past 12 months and claim a starting spot at some point on the 2015 Twins.
  9. stringer bell
    The last two years, the Twins' bullpen has been incredibly stable. They've also been regarded as quite effective, especially when compared to the starting rotation. During the last leg of the season, the bullpen wasn't effective or efficient. I'm going to discuss the players who were on the club for much or most of the season.
     
    Six pitchers spent all season with the Twins and most of their innings in the bullpen: Swarzak, Burton, Fien, Duensing, Thielbar and Perkins. They all threw between 47 and 68 innings, with Swarzak again logging the most frames and Thielbar the least. With so many measures to view overall effectiveness, it is really hard to summarize the group, other than to point out that five of these six relievers gave up more hits than innings pitched. Only Glen Perkins struck out more than one batter per inning and all of their ERAs were over three. As a relief staff, the Twins didn't strike out many, but didn't walk many. This wasn't a bullpen that overpowered hitters, as a group they were effective when they hit their spots and the ball hit in play found the gloves of the Twins' fielders. Here's a brief thumbnail of each along with a projection for 2015:
     
    Thielbar: After having a fine rookie campaign, Caleb Thielbar pitched a pretty anonymous 47.1 innings. He was pretty close to equally effective vs. left or right. Like most Twins' relievers, he weakened at the end of the season. Thielbar is not eligible for arbitration, which increases his value. I expect that Caleb will be a member of the coming year's bullpen.
     
    Duensing: The WHIP is up, Ks are down. Duensing was the only all-season reliever to have his ERA outpace his FIP by a substantial amount. I have liked Duensing because of his versatility and durability, but he will be arb-eligible, he is a strong candidate to be non-tendered. I, for one, hope that the Twins find a way to keep the veteran lefty, but I wouldn't be at all surprised if he is traded or non-tendered.
     
    Perkins: Publicly, the Twins are saying that Perkins is an All-Star closer and that his pitching arm is fine. While I am glad that there isn't something seriously wrong with his arm, I'm not convinced that his performance going forward won't become an issue. Perkins got his swings and misses and his strikeouts in 2014, but even before his dismal September, his velocity was down and he allowed a lot of hard hit balls, not all of which should have been caught. He allowed 32 hits in 32 innings from June-August before his (injury fueled) drop-off in September. Just about every stat went the wrong way in 2014. At the very least, Perk will have to make some adjustments.
     
    Swarzak: He won points with his manager and pitching coach by taking the ball. However, his coach and manager will be different in 2015. Swarzak's role is long relief and they just aren't very valuable unless they can evolve into a late-inning role or a spot in the rotation. It looks to me like long relief is Swarzak's only role. Swarzak garnered four starts, with mostly unimpressive results and wasn't much better in higher leverage situations. The numbers say he regressed to the mean after a very good 2013. His WHIP was up, walks up, and strikeouts down. Since he's arbitration-eligible and out of options, I expect Swarzak will be pitching for someone else next year.
     
    Burton: Burton was a solid performer in 2012, less solid in 2013, and started out horribly in 2014. He pitched better as the season wore on, and by the end of the season was the Twins most reliable reliever IMHO. The warning signs started in 2013. His velocity was down, and it lessened the effectiveness of his out pitch (change-up). The numbers point the wrong way--WHIP, hits per IP and BB up, Ks down. Burton also was victimized by base stealers, unable or unwilling to keep runners close. The Twins pretty much closed the door on his return by buying out his 2015 option. The 33 year old Burton will be a free agent and I doubt the Twins will seriously try to re-sign him.
     
    Fien: Like Burton and Thielbar, Fien was picked off the scrap heap. His performance when called up in 2012 was excellent and surprising. He started strong in 2013, but faded. That script was followed in 2014. Fien was the principle 8th inning guy and did well holding leads. In his few attempts to close games, he couldn't get it done. Fien's two-pitch mix requires excellent command. If he's a little off, the ball can travel a long, long way. He allowed slightly more hits than innings pitched, struck out far fewer batters and yielded some big innings. At 31, it is doubtful that he can improve much. Much like Swarzak, Duensing, and Burton, it seems likely that we've seen the best these guys have to offer. It makes sense to move several of the bullpen guys and replace them with younger guys with power arms.
     
    This concludes my "Postseason Reviews". To summarize, there are a lot of pretty good players already in the majors. The talent needs to be augmented by an improved pitching staff and maybe some premium talent that is getting close to arriving.
  10. stringer bell
    This will close out my postseason reviews of position players. Parmelee and Nuñez spent a majority of the season with the Twins. Absent significant injuries, they didn't start many games. Schafer was claimed from the Braves and played regularly. All three players had their moments, but most likely won't seriously compete for a starting spot in 2015. There is a significant possibility that one or more of these players will be cut loose in the offseason.
     
    Parmelee: Chris Parmelee had chances to claim a regular position with the Twins in 2012 and 2013. In 2012 Parmelee started at first base to start the season after a very successful September audition. Justin Morneau was coming off a severe concussion and was slated to be the DH. Parmelee was given first base. He played acceptable defense, but failed to hit. Parmelee was sent to Rochester where he crushed AAA pitching, but failed to sustain his swing when recalled by the Twins. In 2013, Parm got the starting nod as the right fielder. He surprised many by being an acceptable right fielder, although he lacked speed. Again, the bat failed him and he was eventually sent to Rochester. In 2014, Parmelee competed again for a roster spot and lost out. Out of options, he was outrighted to Rochester when no one claimed him. In 32 games, Parmelee hit well, coming up with a .920 OPS and maintaining a batting average over .300. When the Twins suffered a rash of injuries, Chris was recalled and did not return to the minors. Parmelee split his playing time three ways, starting 14 games in left, 28 in right, 16 at first, and one in center field. Parmelee was inconsistent at the plate, at some points hitting in the middle of the order and other times slumping dramatically. His final numbers were so-so--a .691 OPS (94 OPS+). Probably the most striking stat was Parmelee's platoon split. His OPS vs. left handed pitching was .859, with a .325 batting average. Chris was also the Twins top pinch hitter. He was 5-13 with 7 RBI. Parmelee didn't get much of an audition late in the season, indicating that the coaching staff pretty much knew what they had. It appears Parmelee's chances of competing for a starting spot are over with the Twins. I think that if other roster moves work out that Parmelee could be a pretty good bench player. As a hitter, he has shown he can hit against lefties and has been pretty effective as a pinch hitter. He's shown he is an acceptable corner OF, as well as a good defensive first baseman.
     
    Nuñez: Eduardo Nuñez was once regarded as the probable successor for Derek Jeter. Bad defense and unspectacular offense lowered the expectation to competing for a utility spot on the Yankees. In spring training, he lost out for that job and was DFAed. The Twins claimed Eduardo and early in May, he was recalled. Nuñez was primarily a backup, and he got at-bats at several positions. He started 17 games at short, 12 at third, and 11 in the outfield (10 in left, one in right). Metrics indicate that Nuñez was pretty good in the outfield, decent at short, but subpar at third. I thought he was uncomfortable in the outfield, surprisingly good at short and third. With the bat, Nuñez had some moments, but overall was not a great hitter. He showed very good speed on the bases and a bit of pop. Probably most surprising was the platoon splits. Eduardo hit well against right handers, but struggled against lefties, putting up an OPS of .716 vs. righties, but of .586 against southpaws. The future for Nuñez is pretty cloudy. With no more additions, he has a good chance of claiming a utility spot on the 2015 Twins. As noted, he offers good speed, some versatility, and some pop for a utility player. His defense isn't outstanding and he is 27, so it is unlikely he will get substantially better either at the plate or in the field. In short stints, he has provided a shot in the arm for the Twins.
     
    Schafer: Jordan Schafer was once a top prospect for the Braves. He had had opportunities, but poor performance, off-field problems and injuries combined to short circuit his trials with the Braves and the Astros. The Braves DFAed Schafer at the trade deadline after poor performance as the last man on the bench for a contending team. The Twins claimed Jordan and immediately used him regularly, mostly as the left fielder. Regular play netted improved performance. Schafer eclipsed almost all of his Brave stats in a month, reaching base at a good clip, stealing bases and playing good defense in both left and center. Schafer hit .333 with an OPS of .831 in August. He tailed off in September, compounded by a non-throwing shoulder injury. He finished his two-month trial with the Twins with a .285 average, .707 OPS (100 OPS+) and 15 stolen bases in 147 plate appearances (roughly a quarter of the season). Schafer posted severe platoon splits for both the Braves and the Twins in 2014. He had an OPS of .822 (.326 BA) against right handed pitchers, but had a near-helpless .388 OPS (.171 BA) against same-handed hurlers. Schafer displayed one outstanding skill--he is an outstanding base stealer. He swiped 15 bases in his limited time with the Twins. His defense rated as pretty good, especially in left field, a new position for him.
     
    Going forward, the Twins must decide what to do with the arb-eligible Schafer. Given his good performance late in 2014 and the lack of great internal options, I expect that the Twins will find a way to retain him. I expect that Schafer will compete for a starting spot, but his likely landing spot is fourth or platoon OF. Having the skill of being an accomplished base thief gives him a leg up to be a helpful bench player. His poor performance against LH pitching would limit him to being a platoon player at best. At 28 years of age, the most the Twins can hope for from Schafer would be to see what they saw from him in August and September. I think that Schafer can be a helpful player for an improving Twins team.
     
    I think all three players profiled here are big-leaguers. I don't think any of them will ever be more than a part-time player. None of the guys is really young (Parm 26, Nuñez 27, and Schafer 28), but all seem to have skills that could help them be helpful bench guys. Nuñez plays both infield and outfield, Parmelee plays first and the outfield corners and Schafer looks like a three-positon outfielder. Nuñez and Schafer have good speed and Schafer appears to be an elite base stealer. Parmelee had a good season (SSS) pinch-hitting and facing LH pitching. Ideally, bench players should provide high-quality defense, and that's not the case here. Acquisitions and DFAs will probably determine whether all three guys remain with the Twins.
  11. stringer bell
    Barring injury, Phil Hughes will be the Opening Day starting pitcher for the Twins in 2015. He was the Twins best and most reliable starting pitcher last year by far. Hughes was signed to a three-year $24M contract coming off a 4-14 season with the New York Yankees, a team that won 85 games. Hughes had allowed 24 homers in 145+ innings for the Yanks and the thought was that a new location and less pressure would allow for improvement. Hughes pitched in 2014 as a 28-year old, so he was one of the younger free-agent signees signed in the offseason.
     
    It was not just improvement, but a sea change. Hughes started rather slowly in April, not getting his first win until his fourth start and recording a 5.14 ERA for the month. Hughes walked six batter in his first four starts, and walked 10(10!) in his final 28 starts. He was regarded as a pitcher with good control, but nothing like what he put up this season. He kept his team in the game almost every outing. He struck out eight hitters per nine innings while walking .7 per nine, setting a record for the highest K/BB ratio in a single season and leading the league with fewest walks per innings pitched. Hughes 3.52 ERA was good, but his FIP of 2.65 was much better.
     
    Hughes this week earned Diamond Award hardware of both pitcher of the year and MVP. His fine season was arguably the best by a free agent signee this year. Now, as we turn the page to 2015, we all wonder if Hughes can sustain his excellent 2014 campaign. He did set a career high for innings and batters faced, and he's coming off a season when he only allowed .7 homers per nine, about half of his mark in New York. Also, Hughes has had strong seasons in even-numbered years, can he break the jinx and put good numbers in consecutive seasons?
     
    There are reasons to expect some regression, but also reasons to believe Hughes has "found it". I can't really see another season where he practically walks no one. However, there is hope he will be backed by an improved defensive outfield I also can't see Hughes continuing to suppress home runs as well as he did in 2014. It does make sense that Hughes would perform closer to his FIP and perhaps allow a lower number of hits per inning pitched. Hughes' ability to "pound the strike zone" seems ingrained in his approach and has, no doubt, been effective for him.
     
    Hughes was regarded as an extreme fly ball pitcher and indeed he has many balls put in the air. His air out percentage is one of the higher ones in the league, but it has worked for him.
     
    With all the failures of pitchers brought in to the Twins, Hughes was both a pleasant surprise and an advertisement that finding the right free agent is possible. Any thought of contending revolves around him backing up last year's success with another strong season.
  12. stringer bell
    September complaints about Twins lineups centered on two players--Danny Santana and Josmil Pinto. The fans remaining at Twins Daily wanted Santana to get reps at shortstop (and opportunities for Aaron Hicks) and they wanted to see the state of Josmil Pinto's catching ability. The fans were mostly disappointed. Santana mostly stayed in center field and Pinto only started eight games at catcher and left one of them before he either hit or caught. We will wait for answers (or at least more definitive evidence) in the spring.
     
    For his entire length of stay with the Twins in 2014, Pinto was a bit of a lightning rod. Many wanted him in the lineup every day either as the DH or catcher. Some are convinced that he can never be a regular catcher because he doesn't have the necessary defensive tools and skills.
     
    If anything, this season was evidence that as far as Pinto is concerned, it can't be a half-in half-out proposition. Due to injuries, Pinto got a lot of at-bats in April and his hitting was decent. He didn't catch much and he was noticeably less than adequate behind the plate. This meant fewer games catching, and when everyone got healthy Pinto didn't get at-bats at DH and was sub-standard behind the plate. He was optioned in June reportedly to work on his defense. I expected Pinto to be back before September 1st, but he didn't force his way back from his performance in Rochester and Kurt Suzuki had a career year.
     
    The controversy over Pinto concerns his offense and his defense. How good a hitter can he be with regular at bats? I think he could be very good. He is strong and demonstrated extra-base power for the Twins in his stints with the club. He also has a good idea of the strike zone and will take a walk. Pinto uses the whole field and has plenty of power to put balls over the fence. I think if he were given regular at-bats, he would be in the upper third of catchers offensively.
     
    Defensively, the slings and arrows come from all directions. He was 0-20 throwing out base runners in 2014. He has consistently graded out poorly when it comes to framing pitches. Pinto, after nearly a decade in the organization, has been called lacking in pitch calling and blocking pitches. That is a whole lot of things to improve upon! In watching Pinto throw, there is no question that his arm is strong enough to stay behind the plate. However, there is no question that his mechanics in throwing were screwed up before he was optioned to Rochester. It is certainly not all his fault that he failed to throw out a single base stealer, but on the other hand, he should be in line for more of the blame than any other individual. As for pitch framing, Josmil was the personal catcher for the thoroughly inconsistent Samuel Deduno, if there was one pitcher on the Twins that probably didn't deserve having borderline pitches called strikes due to total unpredictability it was Deduno. It stands to reason that Pinto's pitch framing numbers would be bad. I think game calling a being a coach on the field is in the eye of the beholder. For what it is worth, an ump said it was "night and day" as far as viewing pitches after Pinto returned in September and Kyle Gibson credited Pinto with calling a good game in both of his last two starts (both good starts for Gibson).
     
    I see good potential in Josmil Pinto's bat. I don't see anything that precludes him from being at least adequate as a receiver at some point. I do have a point and counterpoint. Pinto has been known as a hard worker and no one has questioned his work ethic. However, he has been in the organization since 2006 and he, by all accounts, has quite a ways to go to be a competent major league receiver.
  13. stringer bell
    "Fool me once, shame on me. Fool me twice, shame on you". Aaron Hicks has been the starting center fielder for the Twins the last two Opening Days. He was a thorough disappointment in 2013, eventually getting demoted to AAA and not being recalled in September. With the bar set considerably lower in 2014, Hicks still fell far short of expectations and offered a lot of content for sports analysts with his supposed lack of preparation and short-lived decision to abandon switch hitting. Hicks spent much of this summer in New Britain and Rochester, but was recalled in September. Aaron got 70 plate appearances in September with the big club. There was talk of better focus and more confidence, but the result was something short of scintillating. Hicks hit .250 with a .648 OPS. His OBP was an entirely acceptable .348, but he had only three extra-base hits in those seventy plate appearances. My "eye test" observation was equally unimpressed. Hicks hit the ball hard only a handful of times that I can remember. Getting good wood on the ball is a part of his hit tool that seems to be missing to this point.
     
    On top of the offensive struggles, there have been whispers and inferences that Hicks is not committed to being a great baseball player. He skipped winter ball last year. He supposedly didn't know who was pitching one day and showed up late for a non-mandatory session with the training staff so that the manager felt he couldn't use him on that particular day. And then there is the switch-hitting debacle. Hicks has always been better as a right handed hitter. Many on this site thought the answer was simple--abandon switch hitting. Without consulting his manager and not discussing it with anyone else on the team, to my knowledge, Hicks decided to give up switch hitting. When it became obvious he needed work to have an acceptable chance against right handers and because he was able to rehab after a disabling injury, Hicks was sent to Double A and then optioned there when his rehab time ended. The idea was to work on the swing, but shortly after being optioned, Hicks went back to switch hitting. The platoon splits are pretty stark--Hicks' combined OPS was .615 but his OPS was .792 against left handed pitchers and only .512 vs right handers.
     
    To me, this is the contrast between tools and skills. Everyone remarks that Hicks has tools and he does--good speed, strong throwing arm, and big athletic body. The tools are good, but they aren't exceptional, except for maybe his outstanding throwing arm. The skills haven't caught up with the tools. Maybe they never will. I think Hicks' absolute upside is Austin Jackson--supposedly the next great all-around center fielder, who has been pretty good, but never an All-Star and a guy that hasn't become a high average hitter, accomplished power hitter, stolen base threat or Gold Glove defender.
     
    Given the Twins' dearth of outfield options, Hicks will most likely get another chance to make good on his potential. I maintain that what is best for his development and ultimately best for the team is to go to Triple A and build his confidence by dominating at that level. He has just turned 25 so there is a chance that he is a late bloomer who will thrive when he "gets it". The Twins, however, can't assume that he will. Fool them three times, shame on them.
  14. stringer bell
    Entering 2014, I had Eduardo Escobar pegged as a standard-order utility infielder. He was a switch-hitter with a pretty good glove, okay speed who had demonstrated the ability to capably fill in at short, third and second. There was some chatter that EE shouldn't make the Twins coming out of spring training, but most viewed him as a good fit for the utility infielder role. Some wanted to see "Eddie 400" in 2014--that is at least 400 at-bats to see what the still-young Venezuelan could do with more consistent playing time.
     
    The early season gave Escobar his chance. Pedro Florimon, already seen as a subpar hitter, got off to a woeful start and Escobar got several early starts at shortstop. The rest, as they say, is history. Escobar hit .357 in April and backed that up with a .322 (.865 OPS) May. Florimon was demoted and Escobar became the de facto starting shortstop. Escobar returned to earth in June and July--his average fell to .274 at the end of June--and then he stabilized. Eduardo finished with a .275 batting average and his OPS ended at .721, good for a 102 OPS+. The season qualifies as a breakthrough. Escobar had more plate appearances than in his previous three years combined (over a year and a half in the majors). Escobar set career highs in almost every offensive category and played solid defense at the three infield positions (metrics vary) and showed durability.
     
    Esco still has some issues. He struck out 93 times and walked only 24, keeping his OBP relatively low (.315). Many, including myself, doubt that he can replicate his extra base numbers (35 doubles among 43 XBH). Escobar is not a explosive runner and thus will never have excellent range. All of this limits his upside to about what he was this year. Escobar ended up with dramatic platoon splits. In just over 300 ABs, he had only a .654 OPS as a left handed hitter, while in 131 at-bats as a right handed hitter, his OPS was .877. It does appear that Eduardo has been a stronger RH batter throughout his limited major league career.
     
    If someone would have said going into the season that the Twins would have a young switch hitting shortstop who could field capably and be an asset at the bottom of the order, most Twins fans would have been ecstatic and guarantee the guy a starting spot for years, however Escobar's rise coincided with the emergence of Danny Santana, who has the speed and explosiveness that Eddie 400 lacks. Next year's role for Escobar is up in the air. He may revert to a 3-position utility guy, he could become a "10th starter", filling in for multiple infielders, but not having a specific position. Perhaps he can hold shortstop, if Santana stays in the outfield. If injuries occur, Escobar could slide in for whoever gets hurt.
  15. stringer bell
    Joe Mauer is a former MVP and a three-time batting champion. As a catcher, he has won five Silver Sluggers and three Gold Gloves. These are Hall of Fame credentials for a 31-year-old. Last year, Mauer was shut down after suffering a concussion. The symptoms were present until well into the offseason. Mauer and his advisors decided it was time to give up catching. With the exit of Justin Morneau, a move to first base was an easy call.
     
    I was among those that thought that Mauer would be able to play more games and provide more power as long as he abandoned catching. For the 2014 season, I was wrong. Mauer had a career-low .277 batting average and managed only 518 plate appearances. Mauer's OPS and OPS+ approached career lows, as well, and he managed only 4 homers, about one homer per 130 plate appearances. In addition, Joe continued a disturbing trend of increasing strikeouts. He fanned 96 times, about 18.5% of the time, compared to maxing out at less than 12 percent his first eight years in the league. His strikeout percentage has increased dramatically each of his last three seasons.
     
    Mauer suffered injuries, missing games with back spasms and an elbow injury and getting disabled with an oblique injury that reportedly bothered him for most of the rest of the season. It has also been reported that Mauer was rusty coming in to the spring because he didn't have his normal workout regimen due to the concussion. Combined with the adjustment of switching fulltime to first base, Mauer had an uncomfortable first half of the season. At the All-Star break, he was hitting .271 with a .695 OPS. Joe picked up the pace after the All-Star break. His OBP after the break was .397 and his OPS after the break was .805.
     
    Mauer had pretty dramatic platoon splits. Against left handers, he managed only four extra base hits and had an OPS of .654 (.776 against right handers).
     
    No one can dispute that Mauer's numbers were far below career norms. The question is whether he is going hard in decline mode or whether he can recapture his Hall of Fame worthy form from his first ten years in the majors. No one really knows and no one knows the extent of the injuries, including the concussion he suffered in 2013. My speculation is that Mauer has long been a premier player using his somewhat unique approach. I think that he now needs to adjust that approach. He needs to be more aggressive early in the count and find pitches to drive. He also needs to be stronger, so that some of his 360 foot fly balls turn into 380 foot home runs.
     
    Defensively, Mauer looked uncomfortable at first at the beginning of the year. By playing 100 games at first, he got more comfortable and became a pretty good defensive first baseman. All of that matters little if he can't come back and again be a top hitter.
  16. stringer bell
    In my book, Brian Dozier was the Twins best position player in 2013. He had a better year in 2014 and again I think he was the best everyday player on the team. Dozier is a study in contrasts--he isn't a big guy, but has led the team in home runs the last two years. He is a converted shortstop who has become totally comfortable as a second baseman. Most guys his size are told to "use the whole field", but he is perhaps the most pronounced pull hitter on the team, certainly among the right handed hitters.
     
    Dozier had an up and down season. He started slowly, lifted his average through June and then tailed off. Dozier hit a bunch of homers early and continued hitting an occasional long ball until the All-Star break. The power tailed off from there and he was stuck on 20 homers for a long time. He finished with 23 long balls and 21 steals, one of only a handful of Twins all time to reach 20 in both categories.
     
    One improvement Brian made throughout the season was his ability to take a free pass. He had 89 walks (3rd in the AL) and was hit by nine pitches giving him 98 walks to first base. Despite having nearly the same batting average, he increased his OBP by 33 points to .345. Dozier scored 112 runs (2nd in the AL), the most by a Twin in this century. He drove in 71 runs despite hitting first or second almost exclusively.
     
    Dozier's defense was highly appreciated by TD regulars in 2013 and there was a carryover into 2014. He did make more than his share of web gems, but he committed too many errors (15). Dozier is a better than average defensive second baseman, but he needs to fight the urge to try to make the spectacular play sometimes.
     
    While their personalities are polar opposites, Dozier reminds me of another Twins second sacker, Chuck Knoblauch. Each year Knoblauch added another facet to his game. Dozier added selectivity this year and I expect next year he'll be a better situational hitter or better bunter or perhaps win a Gold Glove. I think he has the desire to win and excel and the Twins need more of that.
     
    Dozier has solidified his position with the Twins. If he doesn't improve at all, he still is a better than average player who can win a game with his bat, his glove and his legs on the bases. His durability, power, and defense and the fact that he'll be under team control for four more years make him desirable to other teams, but I believe he has great value for a Twins team that may be on it's way up. I expect Dozier to have another solid year in 2015 and be a major contributor when the Twins again are contenders.
  17. stringer bell
    Kyle Gibson started the 2014 season in the Twins rotation and stayed in the rotation the entire season. He won 13 games, the most by a homegrown pitcher for the Twins since Kevin Slowey won 13 in 2010. Gibson had 10 starts in 2013 and was pretty much ineffective. He had a strong spring training and his competitors for the fifth spot did not. Gibson started 31 games, missing one turn for back spasms.
     
    Gibson's performance was wildly uneven. At midseason, he had racked up several outstanding starts and quite a few "no-chance" outings where the team was out of the game before Gibson left the mound, often in the early innings. Kyle sputtered late in the season, going from August 19 to September 23 without a quality start. His overall numbers are underwhelming, a 4.47 ERA, despite a 3.80 FIP, only 107 strikeouts and 56 walks. Gibson yielded only 12 homers and consistently induced a high percentage of ground ball outs.
     
    What has surprised me about Gibson is his lack of command. He throws a lot of pitches outside the strike zone and when hitters have the count advantage, they don't chase. Gibson's 92-94 mph fastball doesn't get by many hitters when they are ahead of the count. When he is hitting his spots, he can be extremely tough. Gibson allowed slightly less hits than innings pitched. His strikeout numbers increased as the season wore on, but ended up among the lowest among qualifiers.
     
    Most have granted Gibson a rotation spot for 2015. I would expect that he will be starting for the Twins in their first series. He threw almost 180 innings without any arm issues, and finished the tail end of the season strongly. Gibson turns 27 this month, so he's not really a young player.
     
    Most TD posters have labeled Gibson as a mid-rotation guy. I have always thought that he could be better than that. He has demonstrated dominating stuff when he has good command and Gibson is enough of a student to figure it out and become more consistent. I expect improvement for Gibson, in part because the team will improve and probably have a better defense behind him next year and in the years to come.
     
    I think Gibson will be a part of the Twins rotation when they are a playoff team. I expect he'll be a #1 or #2 by then.
  18. stringer bell
    Oswaldo Arcia finished 2014 playing in 103 games, mostly due to a wrist injury suffered early in the season. His statistics are similar to his rookie season in 2013. Arcia pounded 20 homers, but struck out 127 times in just 410 plate appearances. Arcia also hit .231 with a .300 OBP. The power is undeniable, but the combination of the large number of no-chance at-bats and below average defense has made Arcia less than a productive player.
     
    Arcia has been in the Twins' system for seven years. In his minor league career, Oswaldo had an OBP of .376 and a batting average of .314. His top home run season was 17 in 124 games, but home run power seems to be his primary asset as a major leaguer. I submit that his batting percentage and OBP have been a disappointment. He seems to be very fond of hitting long home runs at the expense of being a total hitter. Much has been made of a mechanical flaw but the problem is exacerbated by trying to hit the ball 500 feet. Oswaldo is going to hit home runs if he gets at-bats. He needs to be a more well-rounded hitter to get regular at-bats, not Adam Dunn minus the walks. Arcia hit below the Mendoza line against left handed pitching, with a .574 OPS. The Twins used 2014 as a training/learning experience for him, despite his paltry numbers. If he continues to struggle against southpaws, it wouldn't surprise me that the new manager will limit his at-bats against lefties.
     
    This year Arcia played exclusively in right field. He made more good plays and displayed a strong arm. That is the good news. He continued to make some bad misplays and missed cutoff men and threw to the wrong base far too often. I continue to see enough for Arcia to be an average or better defender, but he has to focus and work on his defense as hard as he works on his swing.
     
    Arcia has shown enough to have earned a lot of rope before he would be benched, platooned or demoted. He needs to make progress both at the plate and in the field to guarantee continued regular playing time in 2015 and beyond. I think he needs to have a much better two-strike plan. He is still only 23. Barring injury, Oswaldo Arcia will start 2015 as the Twins regular right fielder and will still be 23 years old. He is still a very raw player, often doing amazing and stupefying things in the same game. He has shown the ability to be an All-Star hitter in the middle of a contending lineup and then turned around and looked like an 18-year-old in he Rookie League. 2015 should be a big season for Arcia. If he progresses, he'll probably be a cornerstone of a fast-improving franchise. If he stagnates, Twins fans will move on to someone else to be their power-hitting right fielder (Adam Brett Walker anyone?).
  19. stringer bell
    The Twins 2014 season is over. It is hot stove league time, at least as far as my favorite team is concerned. Much virtual ink has been spilled discussing perhaps as many as a dozen key players. I thought I would blog about some of these guys and perhaps start a conversation. I will start with 2014 3rd Baseman Trevor Plouffe.
     
    Plouffe went into 2014 considered the "luckiest man alive" because top prospect and Plouffe's eventual successor Miguel Sano got injured early in Spring Training and was ruled out for the bulk of the season (actually the entire season). Plouffe came to camp looking strong and had a decent spring. He started out the regular season strongly as well. Trevor hit .307 in the month of April with a robust .892 OPS.
     
    Plouffe had his ups and downs during the season and hit the disabled list in mid-June. He played almost every day until he broke his forearm during the last home game of the season. He finished with a .258 batting average and .751 OPS setting personal bests for almost all offensive stats except home runs. Plouffe also had a positive defensive rating for the first time.
     
    One word summarized Plouffe's season--improved--every facet of his game seemed to pick up a notch. He walked slightly more, struck out slightly less, hit better with runners on base and set a team record for doubles by a third baseman. As noted earlier, Trevor made large strides in playing third base. He seemed more focused, better positioned, and seems to have mastered the barehanded pickup and throw.
     
    Plouffe has a reputation as a lefty masher and indeed he's always hit left handers better then righties, but this year he improved markedly against right handed pitching, recording an OPS of .738 against same-handed hurlers. Off the score sheet, there seems to be improved focus, a better approach when hitting and certainly more maturity in dealing with the ups and downs of a long major league season playing for a 70 win team. He seems to be one of the leaders of the team, quite a change from when he was first promoted in 2010.
     
    Plouffe's future remains cloudy despite his very good season. Sano should be back next year hitting home runs in the upper minors. He most likely will get recalled sometime during the season and would figure to displace Plouffe. I have always thought that Plouffe could move to another position and one outfield slot seems to be open. However, his strong season and relatively low salary (he'll be in his second year of arbitration eligibility) would seem to make Plouffe desirable to some teams.
     
    I think Trevor stays with the Twins this offseason. Sano remains a prospect and perhaps not a sure thing. Plouffe's RH bat is pretty valuable. If Sano does move up pretty early, it is quite possible that he will have to change positions. I think he could be a capable corner outfielder, although he probably would be pretty rough at first. My sense is that Plouffe is not done improving and that the best is yet to come for him. However, there is a distinct possibility that Trevor's best might come in another uniform.
  20. stringer bell
    Ricky Nolasco, Mike Pelfrey, and Tommy Milone have all had disappointing seasons for the Twins. Glen Perkins is having a rough finish to his season. The four pitchers named have all had injuries disclosed after they struggled. The cynics among us would all be of the opinion that perhaps the pitchers were using injury as an excuse for poor performance.
     
    Pelfrey started the season in the Twins rotation. He had a couple outings where he looked sharp, but would lose it and not be able to battle through tough innings. He was disabled with what seemed like a convenient and questionable groin injury. On rehab, Pelfrey had discomfort in his pitching shoulder, then had surgery and was lost for the year.
     
    Nolasco was a member of the Twins rotation from the start and ranked near the bottom of starters in hits per inning pitched, runs allowed and ERA. Nolasco mixed in a few good starts with a couple of so-so outings and a handful of no-chance disasters. Ricky was placed on the DL after a no-chance start in July with forearm and elbow tightness. Nolasco rehabbed and has been much better since his return, with three fine starts and one OK performance in seven outings.
     
    Milone was acquired from the A's for Sam Fuld after having a nice half-year with the A's, despite and early July demotion to the minors. He has had one decent start (his first for the Twins) and since hasn't been able to pitch five innings in a game. It was disclosed after his last disappointing start that Milone had a "dead arm" and needed to miss a turn. Since then, he has been slowed by a neck ailment and has missed his second turn. With only 11 games remaining, he may not get another chance to earn his first Twins victory.
     
    Glen Perkins was very good the first half of the year. He made the All-Star team for the second year in a row and has stayed on the leader board for saves while pitching for a last-place team. Perk has struggled mightily in the last quarter of the season. He has been unavailable after high pitch counts in consecutive games and then missed time with a sore neck. After his bad turn, Perkins' numbers aren't very good for a closer. According to sources, Perkins might be done for the season after allowing three runs in the ninth to the Tigers last night.
     
    Which brings me to the topic--were all of these injuries things that players deal with or were they used as excuses? The next question is, can we expect improved performance from these guys in 2015? It appears that Nolasco might be OK, given his last two starts. Pelfrey will have to prove himself in the spring and has no guarantees of a spot in the rotation. Unless Milone throws a couple of gems, he will be in a similar position to Pelfrey, but with having more recent big-league success. Finally, there is Perkins. For the last three years, Twins fans have had reason to be confident when he got the ball with a lead. Now, that will be an anxiety to be dealt with early in 2015.
     
    This assumes that all four will be pronounced "healthy" in spring training. Not a sure thing.
  21. stringer bell
    The death march to 90 losses continues today with another doubleheader, this time against the South Side Sox. Sixteen games remain in this frustrating season which produced one, maybe two, rotation pieces and some optimism that the Twins can score enough runs to be competitive. For the record, the Twins need to win 11 of 16 games to avoid 90 losses. Actually, if they did that it would be a bit more than cosmetic, since they are playing playoff contenders in ten of the last 16 games.
     
    My thoughts have shifted to 2015. Taking a quick glance at the numbers and having watched a lot of Twins baseball this year, I have selected five topics where the Twins need improved play and where the possibility exists that there can be improvement.
     
    1) Joe Mauer--The hometown hero has to return to being an All-Star caliber player. I don't know what it has been, but Mauer has been a shadow of his former self. His batting average is down 50 points, and his OBP almost as much. Some (myself included) expected a bit of a power surge moving to the physically less demanding position of first base and the reverse has happened. We've seen flashes, but no sustained great performance. Mauer has had a Hall-of-Fame career to this point, but this year has been pretty close to dreadful. I think he needs to both adjust and train like he never has before. He has to turn on more pitches, hit more balls over the fence and be stronger. Some have made the point that Mauer rested all off-season, waiting for the concussion symptoms to disappear. If they are gone, he needs to be both stronger and more flexible at 32 and I believe it can be done.
     
    2) Defense--The strib yesterday pointed out that the Twins defense was ranked 29th out of 30 in some measure. I think that is close to accurate and is almost totally on the outfield defense (and catcher!). There is currently a thread running about the defensive dilemma. I will say that both better athletes and more continuity will move the needle considerably. More reps for Arcia in right field and Santana at whatever position he lands should produce dividends. An improved pitching staff could improve run suppression better than any single defensive change. The crown jewel of the Twins' farm system is a center fielder who could graduate next year and make an immediate impact on the team defensively.
     
    3) Rotation--The Twins' staff was supposed to be improved this year. Despite a breakthrough for Phil Hughes, it hasn't happened. Supposed reliable innings-eaters have underperformed and been injured. It would be foolish to expect Nolasco, Pelfrey, and Milone to all bounce back to be acceptable starters or better next year, but it isn't out of the realm that one or two of these guys returns to better form than they displayed this year. Trevor May and Alex Meyer will get a chance at some time next year. JO Berrios isn't far away either. Better days are ahead, hopefully supervised by a different pitching coach.
     
    4) Home record--The Twins have won more road games than seven teams who have better records than they do. Where's the "home field advantage"? Part of this is roster construction--Target Field requires speedy outfielders and right handed power and the Twins haven't had enough of either. Part of that is attitude, I think. For some reason, the Twins don't seem to be convinced they should win every home game and haven't since 2010. Again, maybe a change in the field staff will instill this.
     
    5) Fundamentals--Know when to take a chance on the bases. Know which base to throw to, and set up and use the cutoff man. When there's a runner on third with less than two out, don't try to hit the ball 500 feet, especially with two strikes. The Twins have fallen off dramatically in all of those facets which encompass "fundamentals" and it has cost them in the W-L ledger. Good teams make the right plays at the right time. The talent is there, but the focus sometimes has not been. Again, perhaps a new voice will be able to get through to the players how to both play hard and be fundamentally sound.
     
    That's my five areas. I know there are more. As I wrote this, it occurred to me how nice it would be to have someone else calling the shots from the manager's seat. I guess this is my not-to-subtle call to replace the manager as well.
  22. stringer bell

    Embarrassing

    By stringer bell,

    The Twins have just been swept by the Angels. They were competitive for three games, but got beat up on Sunday. The fact is that, despite a fairly good offense in the five games, the Twins had no chance because the Angels are superior in all facets of the game. At least some of the young guys are playing and a few are thriving. Kennys Vargas is hitting and slugging and Danny Santana is established as a good hitter who has played center field more than his natural position of shortstop.
     
    In the last four years, much has been made of the Twins' continuing futility and much of this stems from non-competitive Septembers. It sure looks like the same thing is happening again. Of course, this year, as mentioned above, they are playing some guys who will be around when the roster is turned over. What is particularly disappointing is that there apparently is no one ready to help the pitching staff. We've seen Phil Hughes go out almost every time and give the team a chance to win, Kyle Gibson has faded a bit, but has been satisfactory. Beyond that? Well, Ricky Nolasco has one good start since returning from the DL, Trevor May has improved, but previously was historically bad, the team has gotten nothing out of Tommy Milone. The bullpen is in tatters. All the guys who have been with the team all year seem to be worn out. The late-season reinforcements have been underwhelming and these are the guys that will be getting the first chance if some veteran arms are let go!
     
    Maybe this gives guys like Jake Reed and Burdi a quick path to the majors. Maybe it is time for management to change. I have been embarrassed by my favorite team in the last four years and I just don't think it has to be this bad.
  23. stringer bell
    The Twins will probably lose 90 games this year. That doesn't mean that they will be making wholesale changes of their roster, at least not from the position player standpoint. After watching half of the Angel series, I'm convinced that all of the 13 position players that will head north out of Fort Myers are playing for the Twins right now. Most of the players are givens. A couple of guys will have competition and two of the jewels of the system will probably get their chance sometime in 2015, but what you are seeing is pretty close to what you will get in the spring of 2015.
     
    Here's my thirteen players: Regulars--Mauer, Dozier, Escobar, Plouffe, Santana, Hicks, Schafer, Arcia, Vargas, and Suzuki. Bench--Parmelee, Nunez, and Pinto. You notice I listed ten regulars. I am visualizing Santana as a tenth starter, around the infield and outfield. Hicks and Schafer share with Santana in left and center.
     
    This is a young lineup (basically) with both power and speed. This is essentially the same lineup that is leading the league in scoring since August 1. If Hicks tanks again, there are alternatives. I have started a thread and stated in other threads that I like both Nuñez and Parmelee as bench players. I also expect that Pinto will gain more time behind the plate next year and that by the end of the season, he may be sharing time or better with Suzuki.
     
    With exciting guys like Sano and Buxton perhaps just a phone call away by midseason, one has to be optimistic about the position players. The pitching staff? well, changes have to be made.
  24. stringer bell
    Trevor Plouffe has been the Twins third baseman since the middle of 2012. He is the Twins' longest-serving starter at his current position on the team. That is a bit hard to believe, but every position has turned over since the Twins handed Plouffe third base out of desperation. Plouffe responded to his assignment by having a once-in-a-lifetime power surge. Most other parts of his game as a third baseman were substandard.
     
    Now, late in the 2014 season, we see a different player. Plouffe has improved his overall hitting and his defense. He has made far more good plays and botched far fewer routine ones. He has hit better with runners on base, he has hit better against right handers and seems fundamentally sound finally.
     
    For all the years that Plouffe has played third, he has been in the shadow of mega-prospect Miguel Sano. The question has always been "what do you do with Plouffe when Sano is ready". Of course, that is still a question. But I think there is a question be asked before that--is Plouffe a third baseman or is he a stopgap? Plouffe ranks behind three outstanding third basemen in the American League, but after those guys Plouffe rates with anyone else.
     
    He now looks comfortable at the position, he now seems to show proper instincts and is in the right place. The throws from third were a crapshoot are now expected to be chest-high and on line and most of all he takes his time when a catcher is running and makes the quick transfer and throw when a speedster hits a slow roller. I'm saying he no longer looks like a displaced hitter, he looks like a third baseman. Plouffe learned the position on the job. He hardly played there in the minors or until he was given the position.
     
    As a hitter, Plouffe still has some bad at-bats, but grinds through many more than he used to. He seems to have a better plan and the results have been better. He's not a high-percentage hitter, but he's had a bunch of extra base hits and in terms of production, he is one of the better Twins' hitters.
     
    I don't know if he'll ever get any better, but at 27 he's a pretty good player. For those who use WAR, he is at 3.2 with 20% of the season remaining.
     
    I have long thought that Trevor Plouffe could be a regular at another position and still believe he could be the Twins' next left fielder. However, I am not so sure any more that what I've speculated will turn out. Plouffe may have enough trade value to be shopped as an established third baseman. The Twins might be more prudent to hold on to Plouffe until Sano forces his way to the majors. At that point, they might be able to flip him for much more than I've ever thought possible. Congratulations to Trevor Plouffe for taking advantage of opportunities and establishing himself as a big league third baseman.
  25. stringer bell
    Dick Bremer broached the subject of outfield defense in tonight's broadcast. He spoke of the Twins' wishes to have more athletic, speedier defenders in the outfield, particularly the corners. As with most things Bremer says, I am sure he is clear that the Twins want the topic out there or he wouldn't bring it up. In my mind, this brings up the acquisition of Jordan Schafer, who is 27 and has shown superior speed (and base stealing skill), while being deficient in most other areas. The Twins are getting a good look at Schafer (33 PAs so far this month) and he has utilized his base stealing skill.
     
    Actually, Schafer has been rather impressive in an extremely small sample size. He is 9 for 28, six for six stealing bases, and has made no glaring misplays in the field. Once thought to be a top prospect, maybe just maybe, could Schafer become more than a pinch runner? There's always a chance. The Twins are due to strike gold on a player given up on by other organizations. They have had their share of times where a player develops/evolves into a good player after the Twins have given him away for little or nothing. It is time for some payback.
     
    In light of the merry-go-round that has happened in center field the last two years, it would be heartening for Schafer to be part of the solution to the problem. More likely, however, the best the Twins can hope for with a career .223 hitter (1280 PAs) is someone who hits enough to be a fourth outfielder. Having a fourth OF, who could player center along with the corners and who could be decent defensively and provide value as a pinch runner would be pretty good for claiming a guy off the scrap heap.
     
    Another fast guy is Danny Santana. He has been given over 250 plate appearances since being recalled in May, mostly because the Twins didn't have anyone else available to call up from their 40-man roster. Santana has spent most of his time in center, and although he had hardly played there, he has been an adequate defender and has hit surprisingly well. Could Danny Santana be the solution to the center field problem? Two months ago, I would have said "no way, no how", a month ago, "barely a chance" and now I'm thinking "if no one else is ready, why not?" Santana is still regarded as a shortstop by the Twins organization, but if 1) Eduardo Escobar continues to be an above-average shortstop and 2) no one steps forward in center, then Santana should start 2015 as the Twins regular center fielder.
     
    What about the prospects? The Twins have three guys who have been or still are regarded as top prospects for center field in the upper minors--Aaron Hicks, Eddie Rosario, and #1 prospect Byron Buxton--and if any of those guys seizes center field it will be good for the organization. Each has their question marks--Hicks has failed twice to hold on to center for the Twins, Rosario has flirted with becoming a second baseman, been suspended for street drugs, and is currently hitting <.250 at AA, and Buxton has had an injury riddled season and only played one game above Class A. There is a lot of talent there, but also a lot of question marks and no guarantees.
     
    The prudent thing to do IMHO is to open center field up for a wide-open competition in the spring. Unless he tanks dramatically in the last six weeks, Santana will be starting somewhere. It probably would increase his value even more if Santana would be an option in left field as well as center. Hicks and Rosario have gotten reps in the corners as well as center and if one of them step forward, perhaps they could be playing a corner OF spot. Left field could be a consolation prize for one of the guys trying to become the Twins' regular center fielder. Finally, if the hype is to be believed, when Buxton arrives, he will take over center field for as long as he is a Twin.
     
    Having an outfield with two fast guys being out there between Buxton, Rosario, Hicks, Santana and Schafer would probably go a long way towards improving a leaky outfield. It also could provide excitement on the base paths and give the Twins balance between power and speed. If Santana claims shortstop, there is one less contestant in the competition, but regardless, it would be nice to see range out of at least two of the three outfield positions.
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