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stringer bell

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  1. stringer bell

    Roster Issues

    By stringer bell,

    Over the past few years the Twins have made several roster moves which I would charitably call "puzzling". The addition of Matt Guerrier when the club needed multiple outfielders, the carrying of alternately three catchers or thirteen pitchers, the recall of Polanco from Single A, the recalls of Kris Johnson and Logan Darnell to start games when acknowledged better prospects are in Triple A are just some examples.
     
    I suggest that many of these decisions are based on a flawed 40-man roster. Some candidates worthy of promotion are not on the expanded roster, too many minor leaguers on the 40-man are not worthy of being in the majors, and too many marginal players on the active roster are frozen there because they can't be optioned to the minors. Several players who may have been optioned at one point can't be because they would have to be DFAed, and if they cleared they would have the option to declare free agency.
     
    Anthony Swarzak, Samuel Deduno, Chris Parmelee and Eduardo Escobar are all out of options. Escobar has cemented his status as a major leaguer and Parmelee may have, but it would have been in the Twins' best interests to demote either or both of the pitchers at some point this season. That is why next year, I am hoping one or both of pitchers is traded, non-tendered or released so that a player with flexibility (for example Yohan Pino) could take their place.
     
    The Twins were so thin in outfield depth that they were forced to use several infielders in the outfield this year. They have lost centerfield depth because the 40-man was filled and they attempted to designate players (Alex Presley, Darrin Mastroianni, Kenny Wilson) off either the active roster or 40-man.
     
    I respect Terry Ryan's ability to judge talent and I expect the next twelve months will be better in respect to roster issues than the past year has been. However, it cripples a team to have so little roster flexibility and the Twins need to do better.
  2. stringer bell
    We have just passed the midpoint of the season and the Twins are a season low seven games below .500. A big reason why the Twins are as good as they are is their second baseman, Brian Dozier. Dozier is currently going through his third slump of the season and the batting average is down to .232. His homers have leveled off and his OPS has sunk to .762. However, I think the first half of the season has been a success for Dozier.
     
    Brian leads the club with 15 homers and is second in RBI with 38. He has played all but two games and is the team's most dynamic fielder. He also leads the team in stolen bases and is a plus base runner. Dozier continues to lead the AL in runs scored with 60. How can a .232 hitter be leading the league in runs? Well, that is why Dozier's first half has been a step forward. Dozier has drawn 51 walks, third most in the American League. He has added the discipline needed to reach base via the free pass to his skill set.
     
    Dozier made a much-ballyhooed adjustment to his hitting over a year ago. To some extent the league has adjusted to his adjustments, but by adding to his ability to work the count and see a number of pitches, Brian Dozier has moved forward.
     
    I do believe that Dozier is guilty of trying to do too much. He hasn't been great in RISP situations, he's made more errors and he's probably made a couple too many aggressive base running mistakes. The best way to solve the over-aggressiveness is to have some help. If the rest of the team is making some plays, Dozier doesn't have to force the issue as much.
     
    I noticed that someone has put forward the idea of trading Dozier. I suppose if players were machines, it would be a good idea, but I see Dozier as a guy who will keep making adjustments to get better and a leader on a team that needs one. Fill up a team with Brian Doziers and you have a winner.
  3. stringer bell
    Right now, the Twins have a wealth of shortstop candidates. Conventional wisdom is that shortstops aren't platooned because working with the keystone partner is so important. Here is my view on the shortstops and my best guess to what will happen. I invite anyone else to comment and offer their opinion.
     
    1) Eduardo Escobar. Escobar is starting most games right now and why not? He's hitting over .340 and he's pretty good in the field. News flash. Eduardo Escobar won't hit .340 and he's not going to get 50 doubles. When his bat cools, we'll see how Gardy feels about playing Escobar every day. For whatever reason, Escobar has been tabbed as a utility guy and he is a versatile player. Defensively, he is a solid shortstop with good hands and a strong arm. He doesn't have great range. I think Escobar has earned this shot and I think there's a chance that he may succeed. Regardless, he has proven he is a capable utility player.
     
    2) Danny Santana. He has the range that Escobar lacks. Routine plays are a challenge. Since his promotion, Santana has played short and center field and demonstrated his blazing speed and strong arm. So far, he has also hit the ball great. Santana isn't going to hit .400 any more than Escobar will hit .340. In fact, if he gets a couple hundred plate appearances, it is really doubtful he be above average as a hitter. In his very short trial with the Twins, he hasn't shown he's ready to be a regular major leaguer, but he also has shown he has major league tools. A trip back to Rochester is nearly certain. Maybe he can develop into a big league regular with quite a bit more sizzle than Escobar offers.
     
    3) Eduardo Nuñez. He is the most established hitter of the group, but that isn't saying much. He currently has taken on the utility role that Escobar vacated. If EE slumps, I wouldn't be surprised if Nuñez gets a shot to prove that his bad defensive rep is an overstatement or not. I can't see Gardy going with one of the worst defensive shortstops for long, but then again we saw Plouffe and Nishi playing the position.
     
    4) Pedro Florimon. The manager is reportedly already missing his magic glove, but Florimon just didn't hit in about 70 plate appearances with the Twins, and hasn't hit at all in AAA either (and has already committed 5 errors--those minor league fields must be rough!). I think Florimon's peak as a hitter was what he produced the first half of last year and that is barely passable. He needs to put up some kind of offense to justify his recall.
     
    Down the road, there are others, but they are years away. I hope someone separates himself. Some are predicting that the Twins will draft a shortstop with their high first round pick, maybe that will the solution to the shortstop problem.
  4. stringer bell
    Danny Santana is a major league prospect. He isn't in the Twins' Top Ten and he isn't a Top 100 prospect in minor league baseball. Most players with his pedigree don't become stars, but some do and I imagine some become All-Stars and most likely some have become Hall of Fame players.
     
    Santana's strength as a prospect are his raw tools. He has great speed and a strong arm. His minor league stats have been unremarkable. Finally, he is a prospect in a position of need for his team.
     
    Santana was called up because there really wasn't any one else available. He was healthy and on the 40-man roster in a situation where there Twins were without a sufficient bench and had two players hitting below .130. What are the odds that a stopgap call-up stays in the majors and never looks back? I would say about 1 in a 1000 when the guy is a middling prospect as is how I profile Mr. Santana.
     
    I am a Twins fan and I hope for the best for my team. Against all odds, I am hoping that the Twins called up Santana at exactly the minute that he "got it" and that he would develop into a solid major leaguer.
     
    It appears that Santana's chance to thrive could come as an outfielder. That makes the chances of success even smaller than one in a thousand. I can hope for the best, but realize that it is a near certainty that Danny Santana will be back in Rochester long before the All-Star break. Maybe, just maybe, he'll defy the odds.
     
    By the way, hoping for Santana to defy the odds doesn't mean that I accept the Twins puzzling moves (I'm trying to be kind). Two straight years of center field struggles without adequate back-ups is only part of their problem. Carrying too many relief pitchers, falling in love with no-hit catchers and failing to be pro-active when injuries occur are pretty much inexcusable, if not inexplicable.
  5. stringer bell
    Brian Dozier wasn't a high draft choice. He had a breakout minor league season in 2011 and became a prospect for the Twins mostly because of the dearth of talent at shortstop, which was then his position. Dozier was then assigned to Rochester and got a promotion to the Twins after a hot start in Triple A. Brian's rookie season was by most measures disappointing and ended with a demotion back to Rochester without a September recall.
     
    2013 looked to be a year of decision for Dozier. He was moved to second base and given the inside track to win a starting position there for the Twins, which he did. After a slow start, Dozier hit well starting in mid-May and throughout the season he was a standout defensively at his new position.
     
    After watching Dozier for the better part of part of two seasons, I have become a big fan. As mentioned, with the position switch, Dozier has become a truly excellent defender, making web gem plays along with always being heads up on the field. He has developed surprising power, hitting 18 homers last year and already stroking 8 long balls this season. He has moved almost full-time to the leadoff spot and has shown far better plate discipline, ranking among the league's leaders in walks and he has scored runs--his 29 rank tops in all of MLB. Brian leads the club with nine stolen bases (3rd in the AL), but more than that he seems to have taken great strides in base running, aggressively taking extra bases, but not often getting caught.
     
    Dozier's game is not without flaws--he hit below .250 last year and is below that mark this year, he strikes out a lot. His season so far has some statistical oddities--he only has one extra base hit besides his home runs and all of his long balls are solos. Dozier only has 12 RBI despite the 8 homers.
     
    Brian Dozier is one of very few Twins players that is above average as a hitter, fielder and base runner. It seems that he doesn't go a game without doing something good at the plate, making an outstanding defensive play or showing good base running skills. The Twins need more players who can win a game with their legs, their glove, or their bat. And he's got really good hair!
  6. stringer bell
    Future Stars: Miguel Sano and Byron Buxton. Emerging Rookie: Josmil Pinto Revelation: Chris Colabello. Starter who Finally "gets it": Trevor Plouffe. Only player to establish himself in 2013: Brian Dozier. What do all of these position players have in common? They are all right handed hitters.
     
    Since the emergence of MVPs Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau the Twins have definitely leaned left. Perhaps not in sheer numbers, but the most feared and respected hitters were lefties. The story is that the White Sox took Chris Sale early in part because they knew they would have to deal with the M & M Boys (don't know if that is completely true). So far this year, on the offensive side, the good stories have been about right handed hitters.
     
    Is this a good thing? In part, I think it is. Target Field seems more suited for right handed power. The high wall in right has turned a lot of blasts into singles and doubles and perhaps the prevailing winds help when left field is the pull field. I also think that most good right handed hitters diminish their platoon splits. So far, Colabello and Pinto have hit better against righties than lefties (SSS) and Plouffe and Dozier have evened up their numbers after being much better vs. lefties last year. Also, Joe Mauer provides a conterbalance and he is signed for five more years. Promising hitter Oswaldo Arcia also hits left handed although he hasn't done much this year due to injury.
     
    The irony of this is that the Twins have hit markedly poorer versus left handed pitchers so far this year. Part of that may be attributable to facing Mr. Sale and Mr. Price, who figure to give just about every hitter problems.
     
    I can envision a lineup later in this decade with as many as seven right handed regulars. It would depend on some guys to develop and others to show this early season isn't a fluke. I never thought there would be a time that Mauer was on the team where the team would be so right handed.
  7. stringer bell
    The season is now 18 games old and some trends can be determined. The Twins are hitting .231 vs. left handers with an OPS of .670, while they have hit .261 vs. right handers and put up an OPS of .773. Looking at splits when the season is only 11% complete means that the sample sizes are really small, so there will be outliers. However, I think the numbers tell us something.
     
    Some items of note: Three right handed hitting regulars (Dozier, Plouffe, and Pinto) have reverse splits. All are hitting markedly better against right handed pitching than against left handers. Colabello also has a slightly higher OPS vs. RH pitching, but he's hit well against everybody. Going into this season, Dozier and Plouffe were thought to be lefty mashers, but so far they've reversed that trend. Pinto is only 3-20 vs. LH pitching, but two of his hits have been homers. The Twins two left handed regulars (Kubel and Mauer) have been better against right handers.
     
    All of the Twins switch hitters haven't hit much. Hicks, in full-time play, has a dreadful .139 BA and .395 OPS with a still-substandard .208 BA and .636 OPS vs. southpaws. Escobar is 4 for 11 vs. right handers (.727 OPS), but 1 for 7 (.393 OPS) against lefties. Florimon has been terrible across the board, but particularly against RH pitching (.115 BA, .409 OPS).
     
    The most substantial splits are Dozier (.942 OPS vs. RH, .454 OPS vs. LH), Kubel (1.006 vs. RH, .714 vs LH), Suzuki (.959 vs. LH, .707 vs. RH), Hicks (.636 vs. LH, .395 vs. RH), Pinto (1.057 vs. RH, .820 vs. LH) and Mauer (.755 vs. RH, .575 vs. LH).
     
    What conclusions can we draw from this? First of all, it is early and one good game can change bad numbers into acceptable numbers. For now, it looks like Suzuki should be playing against left handed pitching and that Pinto has no problem with right handers. If the numbers continued, that would set up a platoon of Suzuki vs. left handed starters and Pinto vs. the righties. The numbers say that Kubel should be platooned if a decent RH bat is available and that Colabello has mashed against everybody and deserves to be playing every day, at least until he cools off.
  8. stringer bell
    After a bit of a hiatus, here is the completion of my blog:
     
    6) Josmil Pinto--I was glad that Pinto made the club. Along with Arcia and Hicks, these guys are the start of a new infusion of talent that could and should make the Twins contenders again. It looks to me like Pinto can hit--he's advanced from Class A in the last two years and has shown that he gets it. His defense seems to be lagging, but he has the tools and the work ethic to become a decent receiver. Pinto has some power and has shown good plate coverage and patience. While I doubt he will contend for Rookie of the Year, I think he will get his chance to become a mainstay this year. I don't think the Twins should bother with DHing him much, but rather he needs to get more and more time playing the game. I'll be quite satisfied with 80-90 starts at catcher and a 100 OPS+.
     
    7) Chris Colabello--It appears to me that Colabello has the most tenuous hold on a roster spot since he has options remaining. Yes, he was the AAA MVP and yes, he has been strong during the spring, but he is 30 years old and last year he hit .194 with a 75 OPS+ in 181 plate appearances. IMHO, that is more than a cup of coffee. The Twins played him in right a few games, but he is really only a first baseman. I've said it before, but I will repeat that I can't help but be skeptical of a supposed power hitter who isn't able to pull the ball with authority. Colabello's story is heart-warming and shows that almost anything can happen, but I can't see him as more than a fringe major leaguer.
     
    8) Oswaldo Arcia--One of the key guys this year for the Twins. Despite some monumental strikeout numbers, Arcia showed good power. His minor league stats showed him to be a better percentage hitter. Arcia also has to improve in the field. It looks like he'll be the everyday right fielder so he can concentrate on one position. A more well-rounded all-around game would set him up as a key member of the good Twins teams to come.
     
    9) Pedro Florimon--The Twins got him for nothing a few years ago. He's given them more than nothing in return. How is that for damning with faint praise? Actually, Florimon proved in a year of full-time duty that he is a really good defender at a key defensive position. Offense? Not so much. He intrigues me because he has a little pop in his bat (9 homers) and good wheels. His splits showed a RH bat that was abysmal, although in the minors, he had hit better from that side. He strikes out too much and walks too little. AT 27, it is unlikely that he'll improve much with the lumber. I think he needs to concentrate and making contact and using his legs to get on more. He can be an asset with an 85 or 90 OPS+.
     
    10) Jason Kubel--I'm surprised that Kubel made the team based on his past season and his spring training. In person, Kubel's bat looks slow, but to me, Kubel's bat always looked slow except when he made contact. He's going to get some chances to play outfield and he's going to DH a lot. I am thinking his decline will continue, but perhaps there's something left if he's healthy. IMHO, Kubel is a Band-Aid solution to bad offense, but if he's healthy he will put up won't be an embarrassment.
  9. stringer bell

    10 Opinions

    By stringer bell,

    1) All baseball fans that have the capacity to visit Spring Training should do so. Hope springs eternal, but more than that, fans can watch drills and minor league games and scrimmages. At Fort Myers, we can sit next to minor league prospects, scouts, and knowledgeable fans. In past years, TR was on the premises and talked with fans sharing much more than makes the papers. It is great to watch both the top prospects and the most anonymous players. Autographs are fairly easy to get and the atmosphere is almost as warm as the weather.
     
    2) Joe Mauer is where he should be, batting third and playing first base. After the concussion, Mauer needed to get out from behind the plate. First base is the proper position for him to transition to at this point. Mauer is a three-time batting champ and former MVP--he is a great hitter. He needs to be able to have the best chance to hit and stay strong and being a first baseman fills that bill. Further, I think that by midseason Mauer will be a fine defensive 1B. He still has good reactions, has a long reach and is accustomed to digging balls out of the dirt and he has played more than 50 games at first. Catching has robbed Mauer of most of his speed and he wouldn't cover much ground in the outfield. Perhaps he could have moved to third, but Miguel Sano lurks and he has never played the position. The team's best hitter should hit for a little more power and in my book profiles as the ideal 3-hole hitter.
     
    3)A position player other than Buxton or Sano will develop into an All-Star for the Twins. DH Kennys Vargas, Adam Brett Walker, Danny Santana, and Josmil Pinto are some names in the upper minors. Vargas is drawing comparisons to Big Papi, Santana has shown an improved hit tool at a position of need and Pinto is on the cusp after a very good September audition. Walker is a strong, raw talent. There are many more talented prospects and I think someone will break through in the next couple of years.
     
    4)Pitching will be the strength of the Twins minor league teams. Signing three free agents has the side effect of packing each level with high quality arms. From Cedar Rapids to Rochester, the Twins will have guys who perhaps merit competing at a higher level. In other years, Tonkin, Guerra, Pressly, and the loser(s) in the fifth starter competition would be on the major league roster. Thielbar would be a lock most years, but it is possible he will be optioned to Rochester.
     
    5)Defense and lack of speed will be glaring weaknesses for the Twins in 2014. Florimon, Dozier, and Hicks have good, not great, speed. Most of the rest of the squad lacks speed and several are glacier-like. The gloves at third, left and right are below-average and it is probably more important for a pitch-to-contact staff that the Twins will field.
     
    6)The 25-man roster going north this year will change dramatically over the course of this year. Given the contracts of the players, some obvious replacements making their way up the ladder in the minors, and (finally) pressure from within to start winning, transactions are bound to happen. I foresee Willingham being traded before or at the deadline. Plouffe and Parmelee, among others, could be traded off. Several pitchers should be available out of the bullpen, plus Correia. The Twins also have the payroll space to add a veteran for a prospect to fill a hole (SS or C, perhaps DH or OF).
     
    7)There will be positive surprises. This is a karma thing. So many things have gone so wrong for the last three years, it seems only right and fair that the Twins have positive performances from unexpected sources. Maybe it will be Chris Colabello, maybe one of the Jasons, maybe a call-up like Danny Santana comes up and performs like an All-Star. Perhaps someone acquired in a trade will overperform.
     
    8)Power will be key. With little speed, questionable defense, and many questions about the pitching, the Twins need to slug better. They have guys--Arcia, Willingham, Plouffe--need to hit balls over the fence, hopefully with more than a few runners on. Many guys have OK or better power--Mauer, Pinto, Hicks, Dozier, Kubel, Colabello or Parmelee--so that if they hit homers, the Twins might produce a few more runs than projected and that could mean quite a few more wins.
     
    9)There will be debuts of significant players. I think we'll see Alex Meyer and Byron Buxton. Santana has a good shot to start his ML career and I expect the proceeds of a trade to get their first looks in a Twins uniform.
     
    10)We Twins fans will feel much more optimistic about the team one year from now.
  10. stringer bell

    Stasis

    By stringer bell,

    In most science fiction shows I have seen, somebody is in stasis (I hope I spelled it right and I am using it correctly). That means that the person or creature in question is in an unchanged state as time goes by.
     
    It is my opinion that the Twins basically spent 2013 in stasis. I expected at the start of 2013 the Twins would move some veterans, find out about some prospective regulars and start in the development of a starting rotation. None of that happened. almost all of what was unsettled going into the season is still unsettled.
     
    Ryan Doumit and Josh Willingham are still Twins and Morneau was on the team until September 1. The Twins have no more answers about their starting rotation than they did a year ago. Further, almost no positions have a regular. We Twins fans still have Chris Parmelee competing for a starting position and Trevor Plouffe as the nominal regular at third base. We don't know for sure if Joe Mauer will be the primary catcher, and we aren't sure who will start at any of the outfield spots.
     
    The aforementioned Plouffe and Parmelee are bigger question marks going into 2014 than they were heading into this year, along with Scott Diamond, Vance Worley, and probably Kyle Gibson. The team lost 90+ games again and really didn't move forward at all. Exactly one starting pitcher is guaranteed to be in the rotation next year and exactly one position player established himself as a major league regular. I find those results totally unacceptable for a rebuilding team. It makes 2014 a virtual certainty to be another losing season and has delayed the needed roster turnover until the coming season.
     
    I expected improvement this past season, whether or not it was reflected in the won/loss record. Instead we saw stasis.
  11. stringer bell
    I could call it mixed feelings, I could call it being worn down by all the bad news from my favorite team, or maybe it is that I don't think it will make much difference whether Ron Gardenhire was retained. I can't get too worked up about the move. I heard the news and didn't respond. Maybe I'm numb.
     
    About 10 hours later, though, I'm starting to think about the whole process. What did Gardy do to get two more years? In my humble opinion, there was more justification to extend him a year ago than there is now. A year ago I thought Gardy should stay, but coming into today I thought it would be best for the organization if someone else took the helm.
     
    What does this move say about the Twins Front Office? Is three years of dreadful baseball acceptable? The Twins had one player make significant progress this year on a team where there were opportunities for many to make a place for themselves for the long term. Is that okay? In what area or what level did the Twins make real progress?
     
    After hearing Terry Ryan making circular arguments about free agency which virtually guarantee that there will be no top tier signing from the Twins and hearing him brand play as "unacceptable" but have no real plan to compete, I can't be optimistic. It seems the whole plan is "wait for Buxton and Sano" and that isn't a plan, it is just hoping.
     
    Ron Gardenhire is a good baseball guy and seems like a decent human being. I respect Terry Ryan's knowledge of the game of baseball and his ability to find talent. I just don't think either man fits in rebuilding a pretty good franchise and developing a team that can win it all. I hope my opinions are wrong, but I have seen precious little to refute my opinion.
  12. stringer bell
    The Twins will finish their third straight losing season late this month. In a year where I expected they would not contend, they haven't but more to the point they have had precious few players step up and establish themselves. All true-blue Twins fans know that there is impressive talent on it's way to Minnesota, especially among the position players. What was needed this year was to have some of the current roster establish itself for the second half of the decade. With the exception of second baseman Brian Dozier, that hasn't happened.
     
    Looking forward to 2014, the Twins will have far too many moving pieces and unproven parts to contend. I viewed 2014 as the transition season where the Twins would become a good team again with a refurbished roster. It could still happen, but too much talent is unproven and there are several holes to fill. I expect quite a bit of off-season activity for the Twins--perhaps trading a veteran (Doumit or Willingham), probably adding a starter or two, but I will project 2014 as if no significant moves are made. Here is my Opening Day projections for both starting lineup and 25-man roster.
     
    Starting lineup: Presley CF, Dozier 2B, Mauer 1B, Willingham DH, Arcia LF, Plouffe 3B, Doumit C, Parmelee RF, Florimon SS, Correia P. 25-man roster: Starters--Correia, Gibson, Diamond, Pelfrey, Worley. Bullpen: Duensing, Thielbar, Roenicke, Fien, Swarzak, Burton, Perkins. Catchers: Doumit and Herrmann Infielders: Mauer, Dozier, Florimon, Plouffe, Escobar. Outfielders: Arcia, Presley, Parmelee, Mastroianni DH: Colabello, Willingham.
     
    The biggest and most important moving piece is Joe Mauer. I am projecting he will be a first baseman and third catcher, playing behind the dish less than 10 times in the coming year. Mauer being a first baseman makes it possible that Josmil Pinto could start the season as the Twins regular catcher--if the Twins don't move Doumit, I think that move will wait, but barring injury or severe regression by Pinto, it would happen. I've listed Colabello and Willingham as DHs. I expect they would play in the field fairly often, with Mauer DHing some. I've penciled in Plouffe at third despite his disappointing 2013, with Escobar as the only infield backup. I am not really sure that Parmelee will open the season as a starter, but with no acquisitions he has a path to starting in the outfield. I am projecting that Presley (a better Clete Thomas) will open as the center fielder (probably platooning with Mastro), but Aaron Hicks could win back center with a good spring training and probably will reclaim center field sometime in the first half of 2014. I have also included Pelfrey in the starting rotation. He may not be back, but if he isn't I would expect the Twins would sign a similar veteran.
     
    In summary, I am seeing a non-contender opening 2014. I expect the season to transition from subpar to something much brighter. The front office can speed the transition up by adding to the starting rotation and perhaps adding a middle of the order hitter. Many players will need to establish themselves, but I think the bottom-out phase will be reached early and that the club will be better and more competitive at the end of the summer than when they start in April.
  13. stringer bell
    The Twins put three minor league teams in the playoffs and have seen them all falter. Cedar Rapids and Fort Myers both were defeated 2-0 and Rochester trails 2-1 in a best of five series. The Red Wings will need to win two straight at Pawtucket to advance in the International League playoffs.
     
    When the Red Wings are eliminated, the Twins will call up a few of their players. Depending on injuries, that number could be as low as three or as high as five or six. My guess is that the Twins will recall only four guys--relief pitcher Michael Tonkin, 1B/RF Chris Parmelee, IF Eduardo Escobar and starting pitcher Scott Diamond. If a fifth player is recalled, I would guess that it would be Cole De Vries. All of these guys have seen time with the Twins and none profile as potential All-Stars. Notable in not being called up would be the Twins Opening Day center fielder Aaron Hicks.
     
    I have stated that Parmelee's role has changed from a guy given a job with a chance to establish himself to a guy who has to win a job. Parmelee could have a chance to win an outfield job or first base next year, but more likely will be competing to be a bench bat to start the year. Chris just hasn't hit enough to merit consideration to start at either first base or right field. He would figure to get quite a few at-bats upon his recall and the hope would be that some solid hitting would build his confidence heading into 2014.
     
    Escobar has had a good stint in Rochester. He hit .307 with an .880 OPS in nearly 200 plate appearances. He is regarded as a fine three position defender and should be a favorite to make the Twins as a utility infielder. If any of the three incumbent starters falter or are injured Escobar would be the #1 candidate to take their role. Being a switch hitter and seeing the platoon splits of two Twins' infield starters, Escobar could be in line for considerable playing time next year, whether or not someone struggles or is injured. Escobar has logged a lot of major league bench time in the last two years and his time in Rochester may have helped his development more than more pine time in Minnesota. It will be interesting to see how much he plays and whether he can continue to hit upon returning to the majors.
     
    Tonkin had a very good season. He started in New Britain and was a mid-season callup to the Red Wings. He had two appearances with the Twins, one impressive, one not so much in a blowout. Tonkin features a big fastball and a power slider IIRC. On a team with few power pitchers, the Twins would love to see him thrive for them next year. Tonkin seems to have struggled in his last couple weeks. I am not sure what to expect from him and if the team decided he's thrown enough, I guess he might not be recalled at all.
     
    I'm a Diamond fan. He went down to Rochester and after a rocky first appearance has pitched very well. Diamond is in the mix for a starting job in 2014 and a couple of good starts would help his confidence heading toward the new year. Diamond will start the Red Wings playoff game tonight, so how he throws would have a direct bearing on when and if he is recalled soon. Diamond's numbers at Rochester: 4-0 record, 33 H in 41 IP, 9 BB and 19 K and a 2.41 ERA.
     
    De Vries is my sneaky candidate for recall. He started 2013 on the Twins' DL after probably winning a spot in the rotation, had a couple setbacks, performed poorly, but since rehabbing he has been very effective. De Vries was a pretty effective major league pitcher in 2012. He hasn't been mentioned much as a candidate for the 2014 rotation, but a few good starts might open some eyes going forward.
  14. stringer bell

    Fire 'em All!

    By stringer bell,

    I haven't paid close attention to the Twins for the past couple of weeks. I was on the road last (long) weekend and have played golf in the warm weather every night. I caught part of the game yesterday and followed along as the Twins were swept today. My frustration level with the product on the field has reached new highs. I checked out the numbers for all of the players and besides the disabled Mauer, no one is an even average hitter for their position. Yesterday was a sloppy defensive game and I understand there were mistakes in the field on Tuesday as well. We've known all year that the pitching staff is subpar, but I thought the offense and defense would improve this year. It hasn't. Right now this team is as bad as either of the two 90+ loss teams that preceded it.
     
    My solution? Fire everybody. Gardy--gone. "Andy"--pink slip. Steiny and Bruno--you're gone too. Vavra and Ullger--part of the current regime--out the door. The architect of this mess (Terry Ryan)--retired or fired. The time for patience and continuity is over. Of the 25 guys on the roster right now, no more than a couple will be playing for the team when they are relevant again. Sweep the floor clean and start over. Besides this, high-quality guys might want to take over as GM or field manager because the farm system is loaded.
     
    I am sick of seeing non-competitive lineups and efforts in the last third of the season and tired of counting my team out by the 4th of July, if not sooner. While most of the guys I am calling to be fired are good baseball guys, and I don't think it is all the fault of any one person, it is time to quit trying to tweak the "Twins way" and going a new direction. I also won't mind seeing major shakeups of the "talent" on the field. Go young, with a small sprinkling of veterans, trade away or DFA the chaff and get started on becoming a dominant team in this decade instead of looking back at the competitiveness of the last one. If the one star (Mauer) isn't happy with this, ask him to waive his no-trade contract and get a real haul for him.
  15. stringer bell
    The Twins started 2013 with many question marks. The entire starting rotation was questioned (rightly), and new starters were introduced at 2B, SS, 3B, and RF. Center field was to be manned by a rookie who hadn't played above AA and several new arms were being deployed in the bullpen.
     
    The established players were Willingham, Morneau, and Mauer, with DH and backup catcher being handled by veteran Ryan Doumit.
     
    While not much was expected, the goal was to see some or all of the new player establish themselves, some of the pitchers to take a step forward and a larger core to be established for the next wave of high-profile prospects. If everything went right, the Twins could make substantial improvement in the W-L ledger and maybe threaten .500. If things went wrong, well there's next year and there wasn't a lot of money or years invested in the "bridge" players.
     
    With about 20% of the season remaining, there hasn't been much good news. Some players and pitchers (perhaps Correia, Pelfrey, and Florimon) have managed to meet low-bar expectations. Hicks and Parmelee (2/3 of the starting outfield) are in the minors, third baseman Plouffe hasn't hit enough or improved enough in the field to sew up a roster position for next year. Veterans Doumit and Willingham have regressed (Hammer was hampered by injuries) and Morneau is backing up a mediocre season with another mediocre season.
     
    The bullpen has been a success. They've been healthy and have handled their roles very well despite getting too much work. That is the second best news for the team on the field this year.
     
    The best news of 2013 has been the development and establishment of Brian Dozier as the team's second baseman. First the defense--Dozier has supplied more highlights than any other player on the team and on top of that, he has been fundamentally sound and steady. He has adjusted to second base incredibly well and seems to have mastered the double play pivot and the throws and angles in short order. Offensively, Dozier's numbers don't look that great--his average is in the .240s and he has struggled to get his OBP over .300--but Dozier has improved since a lousy April and May and he has demonstrated surprising sock for a middle infielder. He had 13 extra base hits in July and already has 15 in August, with a week to go. Dozier has hit 13 homers, second on the club and has a chance to set a home run record for a Twins second baseman. Dozier has batted leadoff more often than not since midseason. He's probably not ideal for that role, but is certainly the best option available for the Twins.
     
    For whatever reason, Dozier has also delivered best for the team this year when the chips were down. His splits with runners on, close and late, and RISP have been very good. He's second on the club in RBI, despite batting leadoff behind low OBP guys hitting in front of him.
     
    Dozier has earned the respect of his manager, and has cemented himself as a major league regular at age 26. He may be playing at his ceiling, but this level is good enough. Going forward, he is a regular or a pretty decent trade chip and definitely the biggest success story of the 2013 Twins.
  16. stringer bell
    My best friend from high school and me stay in touch but seldom see each other. We decided we would attend a game sometime this summer and he called me last week telling me that he had tickets given to him to see the Astros--yes! The Astros--today. We met and had lunch and then attended the game. The weather was pleasant (mid 70s and mostly cloudy) and the Twins should certainly have had a chance since they were playing the worst team in mlb.
     
    The Twins did prevail 3-2 and the crowd was again pretty good (over 34,000) and they appreciated the positive moments that occurred during the game. There really weren't many positive moments. Pelfrey was his struggling self, pitching into and out of trouble in almost every inning. Except for two big flies, the Twins' offense did next to nothing. There weren't many good fielding plays or long fly balls, except for the two that cleared the fence.
     
    Some observations: Carroll started at third and looks .......really old. He doesn't have much zip on his throws (I noticed he's played almost no SS this year), his ABs were pretty poor. Morneau had a couple good rips besides his homer. I'll let others at TD debate whether today was a blip on the radar or something else. When I looked at the lineup and the Twins bottom of the order, I saw Thomas (minor leaguer), Carroll (should be retired) and Bernier (minor leaguer) with Herrmann and Colabello also on the roster and I'm thinking not good thought about Minnesota's GM. Arcia hit a couple balls right on the nose including the game winner and the major difference between the Twins and Astros is that the Twins have a decent, functional bullpen.
     
    I listened to more espn1500 this morning than I have in months. I heard Jim Souhan call out Trevor Plouffe and say that someone in the Twins' FO told him that nobody wanted any of the Twins available at the deadline. I don't hold out much hope for the club for the rest of the year. I think an August trade would be helpful, but unless somebody starts hitting or pitching better, I don't think that will happen. The roster is relatively old with a lot of guys that have zero upside.
     
    Oh, well. The Twins won a game and I got to see an old friend. And Target Field is a really nice venue.
  17. stringer bell
    All pretense that the Twins can or would contend in 2013 is gone, the product of a couple of bad losing streaks and the lack of competitive starting pitching. The club needs to focus on 2014 and beyond. Much speculation has been posted on Twins Daily about deadline deals and I'm sure that will continue even past the non-waiver deadline. Selling off veterans would have many effects: 1) It will make the team worse on the field immediately 2) it will give rookies and non-veterans a chance to show if they are worthy to be in the team's plans and 3) it will subtract salary from a payroll that has already been trimmed significantly and likely clear space on the 40-man roster.
     
    First of all, however, the Twins need to know who will be running the show. Terry Ryan has given no indication that he wants to step down and I have heard no rumors that the Pohlads want him out. I guess this means that Ryan will be the architect of the latest rebuilding effort. Who his field manager will be is more of a dicey proposition. Ron Gardenhire looks like he will preside over his third straight 90 loss season. Few non-expansion manager are able to survive such ineptitude. Gardy has been here for more than a decade and many seem to think his message and his means have gotten stale. I'm not calling for Gardy to be fired, but I will be neither surprised nor disappointed if he is let go.
     
    Who should succeed Gardenhire? Well, the club will definitely be young and inexperienced in the coming years. The in-house names bandied about (Molitor, Brunansky, Ullger, Steinbach) would all be rookie managers. I would hope that the Twins would look outside their organization to find a manager with some experience who could lead a team on the upswing. When Gardenhire leaves, it is widely expected that Rick Anderson will leave with him. I am pretty "meh" about Anderson, but much like the manager, it seems that his message has not been as effective as it was earlier.
     
    This leaves two areas to consider for the balance of 2013. First, how thoroughly does the team purge the veterans on the club? With the trade deadline on the 31st of this month and waiver claims after that, the Twins can and should part with players who won't help them win two years from now. Unfortunately, the trend for almost all of the tradeable vets over 30 is down. The exception is Glen Perkins, who is underutilized as the closer on a bad team, but is putting up elite numbers and was named to his first All-Star team. Secondly, the Twins need to know who they can count on in 2014 and beyond from their current roster. The means consistent at-bats for the likes of Dozier, Florimon, Parmelee, Plouffe, and the rookies Hicks and Arcia.
     
    Here is my opinion on the above issues. Sell the position players even if their value is low. Be more cautious with the pitchers and only accept fair value plus for a pitcher. In addition, when dealing, demand pitching in return. The farm system is stocked with the best prospects the Twins have had in recent memory, but it is overloaded with position players. The club needs to add pitching, particularly high-ceiling arms. Of course, this is the plan for probably 90% of rebuilding teams.
     
    Specifically, here is my scenario: Trade Morneau for what can be had. He won't get the haul of an All-Star, because he isn't one. I think the player and the team would be well-served by parting. I also think Doumit must go. He is an okay hitter, but not good enough to be a DH and he hits well for a backup catcher, but his defense hurts and he's 32. I've become a big booster of AA All-Star Josmil Pinto, who has had a great season in New Britain and is on the Twins' 40-man roster. Jamey Carroll might help a contender. He can continue with the Twins as a de-facto coach, but it makes no sense for him to be playing except as a replacement when giving a young player a day off. Parmelee and Arcia need at-bats. I'm confident that both will hit better than they are right now. Parm needs to put up numbers or be passed by. Arcia certainly has more rope, but his current slump is a bit alarming. The die is also cast on Aaron Hicks. He won't be demoted despite his sub-.200 BA and he has shown glimpses of All-Star ability. We need to remember that outside of Arcia and Hicks, the guys getting the at-bats are candidates to be the next Gladden and Gagnes or maybe Lombardozzis and Leiuses, rather than future Hall of Famers or All-Stars.
     
    On the pitching front, relievers Fien and Duensing should be shopped. Fien's value is pretty high right now so he is a good candidate to be traded, but again only if the team gets value for him. Duensing has regressed to the point that the return for him wouldn't be great. He's failed as a starter and hasn't been able to hold a 7th inning role either. Duensing has had success before, but not recently. I doubt the Twins get an offer good enough to send him away. There has been speculation on starters Mike Pelfrey and Kevin Correia. Correia started strong but has been less than ordinary in the last two months, while Pelfrey seems to be getting better slowly. Both profile as back of the rotation starters, which means that the payoff would be top prospects. Again, it would be fine to send either guy off, but innings eaters have value despite less-than-stellar stats. I know I'm in the minority, but I think the Twins should keep Pelfrey unless they are overwhelmed by a deadline offer. I like that his velocity is up and he is still very early on the road to recovery from TJ surgery.
     
    The Twins will continue to be bad this year whether they ship their veterans or not. Making the right rebuilding moves will help as soon as next year. Let's hope they make the right calls and that 2014 will be the ramp-up year for when they contend for a decade.
  18. stringer bell
    The Twins have played the fewest games in the AL (along with the White Sox) and after 66 games, they are about what I thought they would be at this point: They are in fourth in their division and are within sight of everyone but Detroit. Big picture: Fine with me, I want to see this team sell at the trade deadline, but I don't want them to be dreadful.
     
    What is not fine with me is that the players I want the Twins to sell just aren't performing that well. Doumit (.288/.405/.692), Morneau (.341/.379/.720) and the Hammer (.352/.411/.763) are all well below last year's results which would indicate that their value has diminished. It has been discussed all over TD, but Morneau's lack of power has lowered his OPS from last year, even though his BA is up. On the pitching side, I think the Twins need to hold on to whatever effective arms they have. Perkins has done well and has a nice team-friendly contract and despite a couple of hiccups lately, Burton is a good late-inning arm. I suppose the club could deal one of those guys while they have good value. Starters Correia and Pelfrey might have some value. Correia has been the Twins most consistent starter, but he epitomizes the mostly discredited "Pitch to Contact" approach and his innings could go to somebody currently toiling in Rochester. If the Twins can get anything of value for him, I would sell. Pelfrey, on the other hand, seems to be getting stronger. He's throwing harder, getting more Ks, and pitching deeper into games. Perhaps the Twins could sign him for another year at a bargain rate rather than selling and seeing him thrive for someone else.
     
    There are several players whose box scores I check no matter what. Mostly I am looking at players who can help the Twins in the next year or two. That includes some guys on the major league team and some in the minors. Also included, any left hander than can get batters out--there never are enough lefties!
     
    Here's a list with a thumbnail of the season so far and the reason why they could be players for the Twins: Chris Parmelee--could/should be Morneau's successor at first base. Young enough to be a key player when the next wave arrives. Parm is hitting .223 with a .648 OPS. He failed to secure a position last year and is on his way to ceding a spot in the Twins future. The bright spot has been surprisingly good defense in right field. He might be slotted as a bench player (RF/1B/DH) despite his poor hitting. Brian Dozier--For a franchise with so few good middle infielders, having a capable middle infielder is important. Dozier had a good game today and currently is hitting .230 with a .624 OPS. Again, Dozier has fielded his new position surprisingly well, but he has to hit more to secure a spot for 2014 and beyond. Dozier's June numbers are encouraging, with a .297 BA and OPS over .800. Pedro Florimon--He is important for the same reasons as Dozier. The bar for Florimon was set very low going into the season and he hit surprisingly well early. His overall offensive numbers mirror Dozier's--.227 BA with a .632 OPS--but June has not been kind to Florimon. Going into today's play, he's hitting .119 with a puny .388 OPS. His defense has slipped, as well, so that I don't think Pedro has guaranteed anything more than continued play into next month. Finally on the roster, Trevor Plouffe. Plouffe has had injury issues, but his numbers are ....well, good! Plouffe has an obvious successor playing in the Twins system, but if he can hit to an .800 OPS, he'll have a job with the Twins or somewhere else. Plouffe has the necessary skills to be a decent 3B and enough hitting prowess to be a regular somewhere in the Twins lineup. Good health, Trevor!
     
    In the Twins top two minor league teams, I watch the catchers because I believe it is in the Twins best interest to have Joe Mauer catch less. Very encouraging numbers from Josmil Pinto, give me hope that the Twins can have a young receiver splitting time with Mauer behind the plate and hitting. Pinto's numbers at New Britain are outstanding: .321 BA and .957 OPS and reports have him being capable as a defender. "Utility catchers" Chris Herrmann and Dan Rohlfing look like guys who could fill a third catcher role, also able to play in the outfield and perhaps an infield corner: Herrmann did very well for the Twins in 15 plate appearances and Rohlfing has been outstanding as a C/OF for the Red Wings after putting up okay numbers in New Britain. Beyond the catchers, I look at NB SS Danny Santana, who is hitting a low-power low OBP .280 and has 20 errors at shortstop. Daniel Ortiz, who was a consistent performer early, but has slipped a bit. He's a corner OF with a .769 OPS. Finally, Michael Tonkin has impressed. He started in New Britain, and has moved to Rochester. He has a good WHIP, opponent's BA and strikes out more than one per inning. I think Tonkin will fit in as a late inning option for the Twins as soon as this year.
  19. stringer bell
    If Brian Dozier played second base this year like he played shortstop last year, is there any chance he'd still be on the big league roster? If Chris Parmelee played right field with the proficiency of Ryan Doumit and (so far) Osvaldo Arcia, would he be in Minneapolis or Rochester (NY)? Finally, if Pedro Florimon played shortstop like he did last year and the first couple weeks of this year, would the fans be calling for Escobar, Carroll and Danny Santana?
     
    I think the answer to all three questions is that defense has made a difference. Dozier as a shortstop last year demonstrated marginal tools--average range, enough arm--and probably a lack of focus due to his offensive struggles. He was a subpar SS, for sure. This year he has moved to second and has been a very good defender, showing good range, a quick pivot, especially for someone new to the position, and good hands. His defense has kept him in the big leagues and probably kept him in contention to continue to get regular at-bats this year and beyond.
     
    Parmelee was thought to be a displaced first baseman, basically waiting for Morneau to get injured or traded. While he isn't blessed with even average speed, Chris has caught everything he could get to, played the corners and the walls well, charged balls well hit in front of him and thrown very well. Because he gets pretty good breaks on balls, I think one could classify his range as "adequate" despite the lack of foot speed. This year, Parm has logged an inning in center field and served as a defensive replacement. Not many would have predicted either of those things going into the season. So, despite a .223 BA and .647 OPS, Chris is still getting playing time in Minnesota, not upstate New York.
     
    Florimon's assignment as the regular shortstop was questioned. There was nothing to project him as anywhere near an average hitter and his defense didn't profile as anything special--too many errors, too many routine plays not turned into outs--and Pedro began the season with some sketchy defense. He could have been charged with a half dozen more errors than he received and threw a whole bunch of sinkers to first base, most of them dug out by Morneau. As the weather has warmed, so has Florimon's defense. The throws are 100% improved, he's fielding grounders with confidence and making very few, if any, mental mistakes. Combined with acceptable offensive production, Florimon has, for now at least, cemented his position in the lineup.
     
    All three of these guys need to hit to maintain their roles with this club and have a future in the big leagues, but their leashes have gotten longer because they have exceeded expectations in the field. To me, Parmelee is the biggest surprise. He doesn't look like much of an athlete, but he's made the plays. Unfortunately for him, defense at first and outfield corners is not nearly as important as how well you swing the bat. Dozier and Florimon have been a decent middle infield and a real improvement over last year.
  20. stringer bell
    I've blogged about the disappointing offense for the 2013 Twins and pointed out three guys who are offensive tail enders. Brian Dozier--limited ceiling middle infielder, Chris Parmelee--right fielder/first baseman who has teased the Twins with good stretches, but has failed once and is failing again to secure a spot from the start of the season and now Aaron Hicks.
     
    Aaron Hicks ranks fifteenth of fifteen center fielders in OPS. He started the season as the Twins' leadoff hitter and center fielder and has since been put near the bottom of the order. Hicks started historically bad. He finished April with a .113 batting average and .356 OPS--many pitchers (and Drew Butera) would be ashamed of that stat line. There has been slow improvement. For the month of May, Hicks is hitting .202 and OPSing an even .700, not great but a noticeable improvement from the previous month. Hick had hit five homers, second on the team, and has scored 25 runs and knocked in 17.
     
    Hicks was the Twins #1 draft choice in 2008 and he moved slowly through the system, repeating low A ball at Beloit. He has never hit .300 in a full season, has never played an inning in AAA, and the switch hitter's splits have always shown him to be a better right handed hitter. Nevertheless, the Twins saw fit to promote him based on a solid season in New Britain and a very good spring training. Hicks has always shown good selectivity and has shown from the beginning the tools necessary to be a fine defensive center fielder.
     
    Several issues have developed around Aaron and the Twins' center field position. First, he currently doesn't have a true backup. Fourth outfielder Darin Mastoianni has been injured basically all season. Another candidate for center, Joe Benson, was claimed on waivers after being demoted and struggling at Rochester. The Twins have no backup CF on the major league roster or the current 40-man roster. Hicks' struggles have prompted calls for him to be sent down to Triple A, also meaning that if he stays in the minors for three weeks, the Twins would get another year of service from Hicks before he could be a free agent. So far, the Twins are saying that he will do his struggling and learning in the majors. Many are calling for Hicks to give up switch hitting and be only a RH hitter.
     
    What does the immediate future hold for Aaron Hicks? With no replacement (and no room) on the 40-man roster, it looks like he is safe from demotion at least until Mastoianni can play again. Continued improvement would probably keep him in Minnesota for the rest of the season. More than any player on the 25-man roster, the priority with Hicks is his development. He is considered a Prospect with a capital P and developing his talent is Objective One. I have thought from the beginning that a month in Rochester would be beneficial for Hicks. Failing that, having an alternate who could start once or twice a week against a tough righthander would be helpful. Since that doesn't appear to be an option, I guess that answer is to let him play and learn. I certainly don't think making Hicks a righthanded hitter makes sense. I would predict that Hicks continues to get at-bats and continues to improve modestly. The numbers probably won't be pretty, but a BA over .200 and an OPS in the mid .600s would be a success considering his dreadful start.
  21. stringer bell
    I introduced my thoughts on the Twins' failings on offense and pointed out three players who are toward the bottom of the statistical pile--Brian Dozier, Chris Parmelee and Aaron Hicks. I profiled Dozier as a low-ceiling guy in a position of need and optimistically said that he is capable of a .675-.700 OPS, which would be good enough to keep his job going forward. Chris Parmelee is my next topic.
     
    Chris Parmelee was a #1 draft choice for the Twins in 2006. He progressed slowly through the minors and posted mostly undistinguished numbers, but showing some power potential until 2011 in New Britain. There he had his highest full season BA and coupled that with 13 homers and 83 RBI, garnering a September call-up to the Twins. Chris enjoyed an outstanding September with the Twins, hitting .355 with a 1.055 OPS, while clubbing 4 homers and driving in 14. That showing put him on the radar as a first base/DH option for 2012. Justin Morneau's slow recovery from a concussion and other issues gave Parmelee a ticket to the big leagues last year. Chris was the starting first baseman, but he struggled most of the time. When Morneau demonstrated he was ready to play first, Parmelee was sent to Rochester for his first AAA experience. Parmelee opened eyes again with his hitting in the International League, hitting .338 and OPSing over 1.000. Back to the Twins, and his play improved after his recall but not on the level of his September breakout the year before or the blistering hot streak in Rochester. All-in-all, Parmelee was a disappointment, but he showed enough to be penciled in as a starter when two starting outfielders were traded in the offseason.
     
    Parmelee was moved to right field in spring training. He handled the corner outfield spot well and hit enough to be rewarded with another trip north, this time as the Twins right fielder. So far, much like Brian Dozier, the position change has been no problem. Parmelee has surprised many with his proficiency as a right fielder, however the bat hasn't done the job. He's currently hitting just .214 with a .619 OPS. Only one AL regular, Jeff Francour, has worse offensive numbers. Several issues revolve around Parmelee. First, he is viewed as Justin Morneau's replacement if Morneau leaves via free agency, is traded, or is injured, so his fortunes in some respect are tied to the big Canadian. Second, if Parm is considered a corner outfielder, the Twins have a prospect on the horizon. Osvaldo Arcia already has over 100 major league plate appearances and has shown the potential to be a top flight hitter. Third, is Parmelee himself. Is he going to develop into a star, a regular, a role player, or is he going to be discarded soon like his fellow '06 draftee partner Joe Benson? The results are mixed. Perhaps the biggest red flag this year has been former Twins' manager Tom Kelly (serving as a guest analyst) frankly admitting that Parmelee was having trouble catching up to big-league fastballs. Is this just a symptom of a slump or is it the ultimate career-limiter?
     
    Principally because of interleague play, Parmelee has seen limited at-bats on the just-completed road trip. He seems to be doing a bit better--5 for 15 in the last seven days with a long homer in Milwaukee. The Twins need to see which Parmelee is the genuine article. If he can OPS around .800 with decent power and the ability to play both first and the outfield, it is much easier to part with Morneau and pave the way for making Joe Mauer a part-time first baseman. The slow start will make it tough to post those numbers for this season, but I don't think it is out of the realm. My prediction would be that Parmelee gets the numbers up to acceptable (about a .750 OPS), in the middle third of AL right fielders. I have said on other threads, that if the production doesn't improve, he is likely shoved aside. There is talent (lots of it) coming in the Twins' farm system.
  22. stringer bell
    As the season approaches the one-third mark, the Twins have slipped well below .500 and are now in a logjam of teams (a half game ahead of Toronto and Seattle, tied with KC, a half game behind the Angels) that has to look up to see respectability and only solidly ahead of one team (the woebegone Astros). Starting pitching is the main culprit, but the team hasn't produced offensively either. The Twins are 10th in runs per game, 14th (next to last) in OPS and homers and last in slugging. The offensive disappointment can be traced to several factors including: 1) Bad weather 2) Weird seasons from their former MVPs, Mauer (a ton of strikeouts) and Morneau (no power) and 3) regression to the mean from last year's free agent acquisitions, Doumit and Willingham.
     
    The primary reason, IMHO, why the Twins offense has struggled has been too many easy outs. The Twins entered 2013 with five new starters, each a question mark, and I stated as the season started that the success or failure of these non-proven non-rookies would determine the success or failure of 2013. So far the results are mixed, at best. New shortstop Pedro Florimon has picked up his fielding after a slow start and is hitting acceptably, especially given very low expectations. Trevor Plouffe isn't a gold glover, but he has shown incremental improvement at third in his first full year as a 3B and while he hasn't "gone off", he's been an average offensive third baseman. The other three new starters will be the subject of this and two more blogs. They are the "black holes" in the lineup--guys that rank among the worst offensive players at their positions. The accused are second baseman Brian Dozier, right fielder Chris Parmelee, and center fielder Aaron Hicks. First Dozier.
     
    Brian Dozier came to the Twins on May 7 last year and lasted as the regular shortstop until mid-August. Dozier became a prospect by having a fine 2011 in the minors, hitting over .300 at both Ft. Myers and New Britain while adding some extra base sock. Dozier started out well for the Twins before fading badly and also playing a poor shortstop. It was decided that he try to make the transition to second base and he was given the inside track to win a starting job there in spring training. Dozier performed commendably in the field and hit acceptably and won the job in March. So far, Dozier's defense has been excellent, but the offensive graph has not been good. Dozier started slow, as almost all the regulars did, came on to get his BA to around .250 and then slumped horribly. His three-hit game last night put him above .200, but the OPS is still only .537, ahead of Chicago fill-in Jeff Keppinger and recently-demoted Dustin Ackley.
     
    Dozier just turned 26 and has never been projected to be a star. His leash is a bit longer because besides the two in-house utility infielders (one of whom is 39 years old) there isn't a player who profiles as a starting major league second baseman in the system above Fort Myers. As with all the "black holes", I think there is hope for Dozier. He certainly needs to hit more, but he isn't a .537 OPS player IMHO. Patience and proper usage might lead to Brian establishing himself as a regular. I would peg his OPS at the end of the year being between .675 and .700 (something like .320/.370/.690)--those numbers would put him in the middle of the pack offensively. Combined with plus defense and no palatable alternatives, Dozier could stick as the Twins regular second baseman going in 2014.
  23. stringer bell
    After a period of stability, the Twins have made a rash of moves. Many of the moves have been panned by the denizens of Twins Daily for being shortsighted, cheap, stupid or all of the above. Some are calling out the GM for saying the team was trying to compete when, in fact, they are rebuilding and focusing on next year or the year after.
     
    News flash! The team isn't going to contend this year. Ryan's "contention" talk was predicated on miraculous performances by pitchers who have been much less than miraculous. The hitters have been, on balance, disappointing and a couple teams in the AL Central are pretty good. No chance in 2013. Certainly, Ryan knew this could happen and the next step for Project 2013 is to prepare a nucleus for next year and 2015 and find out what he needs to acquire to make future teams viable in the division.
     
    There are a large number of question marks and several categories of players to be evaluated. Here's my take of the categories and the players in the categories for which Ryan must make decisions:
     
    Veterans--Morneau, Doumit, Willingham, Carroll, Perkins and Burton. These are established players with established roles and Ryan must decide whether hold on to them or trade them.
     
    Not established non-rookies--Hendriks, Robertson (both demoted early), Plouffe, Florimon,
    Dozier, and Parmelee. Several position players were new starters this April, none of them had started all year in 2012. This is a group that the Twins have to determine whether they should be starters going forward and if the Twins need to check out the minors of other teams. So far, the results have been mixed, at best. Dozier and Parmelee have been disappointments, Plouffe held his own until his injury and Florimon has exceeded very modest expectations. The two pitchers I mentioned didn't make it through April.
     
    Fringe guys--Hernandez, Walters, Deduno, Colabello, and Thielbar--These guys mostly are placeholders who get a chance to stay in the majors. None of them project to be long term Twins or stars, but they will get a chance to keep in the majors if they do their jobs. If any of these guys have to be demoted or ride the bench for a long period, so be it. If any of them can be a productive player in the coming years, it will be a bonus.
     
    Rookie Prospects--First of all, these are guys who the Twins are banking on to help them be a good team again. The team will do everything they can to help these guys become producers in the coming years. The players include Arcia, Hicks, and Gibson. The Twins approach seems to be different for each guy--they've stuck with Hicks despite his major struggles, they've sent Arcia down three times and much to many contributors' frustrations they have refused to promote Kyle Gibson despite the worst starting rotation in the major leagues.
     
    In discussing transactions, playing time, trades, or demotions, it is important to remember that everybody doesn't get treated the same, nor should they. Goal one is to do what is right to help the prospects succeed. We can argue with the plan, but we, the fan base, must support the idea of developing talented, young, and inexpensive players. For me, I would have sent Hicks down to secure his services for another year and build his confidence at Rochester. Gibson, IMHO, should have been promoted at least a week ago and I basically agree with the treatment of Arcia, although it hasn't been smooth for him.
     
    The unproven non-rookies need a longer leash than barely a quarter of the season. Since this is a non-competing year, the Twins need to find out about them. I think somewhere around midseason is a fair evaluation period. Some of the veterans need to be traded, some should stay as veteran preference for the improved teams fueled by a (now) top-notch farm system.
     
    The key component for the near future for the Twins is their starting staff. They need to develop/acquire enough talent to compete with the deep rotations in Detroit, Cleveland and several other AL cities. Let's see if Ryan's moves work out, particularly with the starting staff.
  24. stringer bell
    Here is a list of ex-Twins who have made Opening Day rosters in the major leagues. Long on pitchers and outfielders, short on infielders and starting pitching quality. Sound familiar?
     
    Denard Span--Nationals
    Ben Revere--Phillies
    Jason Kubel--Diamondbacks
    Carlos Gomez--Brewers
    Torii Hunter--Tigers
    Michael Cuddyer--Rockies
    Garrett Jones--Pirates
    Alexi Casilla--Orioles
    JJ Hardy--Orioles
    Nick Punto--Dodgers
    Henry Blanco--Blue Jays
    AJ Pierzynski--Rangers
    Wilson Ramos--Nationals
    Jason Marquis--Padres
    RA Dickey--Blue Jays
    Kyle Lohse--Brewers
    Philip Humber--Astros
    Kevin Slowey--Marlins
    Grant Balfour--A's
    Pat Neshek--A's
    Luis Ayala--Orioles
    Jesse Crain--White Sox
    Jose Mijares--Giants
    Jon Rauch--Marlins
    Matt Guerrier--Dodgers
    Joe Nathan--Rangers
    LaTroy Hawkins--Mets
     
    Notable DLs--Santana, Ortiz, Young, Liriano, Breslow
  25. stringer bell
    The Twins have hit the 20 game milestone and are a breakeven 10-10. Considering the pessimism going into the season, we Twins fans should be happy with the results. Some raw numbers: Run differential is -6. Team ERA is 3.92, the Twins have scored 83 runs despite only 13 homers and a league-worst slugging percentage. They are 5-2 in one-run games and have allowed only 11 homers, second best in the AL. Many of these stats can't be sustained--they will allow more homers and win fewer close games--but the team is improved.
     
    The team hasn't gotten much from several players--Aaron Hicks is off to a historically bad start to a career. Morneau, Plouffe, Doumit, and Parmelee (normal 4-7 hitters) have combined for 4 homers and 24 RBI in 294 plate appearances and Worley and Pelfrey have been much more bad than good in their starting turns. Escobar and Correia have far exceeded expectations, but they are really the only ones who are performing better than one might expect. The defense has been inconsistent, highlighted by SS Pedro Florimon. However, there have been many highlight defensive plays as well. Two players in new positions--Parmelee and Dozier--have seemed to be good fits to their new spots.
     
    I think the club is still a ways away from truly contending. The top end of the rotation is suspect, the hitting is inconsistent, and they have put pressure on a pretty good bullpen. The upcoming road trip will probably tell a lot about the present for the Twins.
     
    In looking at minor league performance and players returning from injury, it appears that the back end of the rotation has many candidates for few spots. Current #4 starter, Pelfrey hasn't had a quality start and has had two lousy outings and two okay starts, never finishing the sixth inning. Pedro Hernandez, the nominal #5, pitched only 5 innings today, but was effective. There are no less than four candidates--Gibson, Hendriks, Walters, Deduno,--for starting spots and at some point Rich Harden could also be considered for a spot. Add in the two off-season trade acquisitions in AA and that is quite a logjam of potential starters. In the bullpen, Tim Wood and Rafael Perez are nearing health with a full bullpen and 40-man roster. Tyler Roberton has also pitched well at Rochester, so there could soon be too many okay options for too few spots there.
     
    In the outfield and at first base, the Twins have service time considerations with rookies Hicks and Arcia. When Darin Mastroianni returns from the disabled list, one of those two would figure to be sent down to Rochester. There is a chance that Chris Parmelee could be sent down instead, but I think the Twins have seen enough of Parm raking at Rochester. The outfield/first base decision could be complicated by somebody catching fire at Rochester. Colabello has been outstanding so far and onetime top prospect Joe Benson has put together a few good games. Another week in the minors would delay 21 year old Arcia's free agency for another year. Hicks would need to be sent down for three weeks to delay free agency. As with most roster decisions, it probably doesn't make any sense to decide until you have to, injuries and ineffectiveness usually help to make the decision easier.
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