darwin22

Matt: With the exception of Saint Paul, a pretty dismal night for our affiliates, but appreciate your analysis. Posted this the other day on a different thread, but after Barnes' impressive work last night I hope your observation that a promotion is imminent is true. Im sure Griffin Jax is a nice person, but after getting lit up last night, its time to move on. As many others have noted we've reached the point where the remainder of this season is 100% about EVALUATION for next season. Barnes, imo, has absolutely earned the opportunity to take a slot in Twins starting rotation. Should---I sure hope sooner than later------Happ is DFA'ed or relegated to long relief, there's a spot open for Barnes. If Pineda can show something in his next 2 starts, preferably at the big league level, the likelihood of him being dealt increases. That would open up a spot for Josh Winder. I'm sure FO will want to limit his IP the rest of the season, but if he pitch anywhere close to what he's done all season-----he needs to be in the rotation very soon after the AS break.

By no means disagreeing with your assessment, but its pretty sad to be thinking of Kepler as a 4th OFer when he's guaranteed $15.25mill over the next 2 seasons (6.75 in 2022/ 8.5 in 2023).

Bighat: Excellent analysis of the sad state of affairs with what USED to be a franchise with players (Hrbek, Gaetti, Mienkiewicz) who played with emotion--grit--intensity and HATED to lose. I think you nailed it with Rocco. His managerial style---trust the process, play for tomorrow--must be what the FO wants. Its not what I want. Attitude reflects leadership. Rocco's laid back style is NOT working. I'm not advocating a "Billy Martin clone" replacement, but I really wonder if Rocco has the internal talent to motivate his players. Will be interesting to see what transpires over the next few weeks as Cruz, Pineda and Simmons---all on expiring contracts--should be dealt.

Although only a short 20 minute drive away from Kauffman Stadium, I had ZERO interest in attending tonights game as I knew the Twins/JA Happ would be just the remedy for the Royals to end their 9 game losing streak. A few observations after ANOTHER bad night of baseball: 1. JA Happ: Can we just end his tenure now? For those who argue that Happ should maintain his spot in rotation-----PLEASE....PRETTY PLEASE respond with a detailed argument in his favor. Noticed a 3-0 lead after 1st inning and commented to my spouse..."well...Happ will p*ss away this lead very soon." I wasn't mistaken. Im sure front office doesn't want to eat whatever portion of Happ's $8m contract a DFA would result in. With Shoemaker gone (good riddance), why can't Happ be relegated to long relief as I can't believe any contending MLB team would want him. 2. Offense disappears after a 3-0 start. Hmm...we've sure seen that far too frequently this season. Best chance to get back in this game came in the 6th as Twins had bases loaded with no outs. What followed was a microcosm of this teams inability to perform with RISP. Arraez DP and JD whiff results in 1 measly run. Just horrible. 3. What do with starting rotation moving forward? Yes, a poor rehab AAA start for Pineda last night, but his reasonable success earlier this season combined with his strong performance in 2019 and 2020-imo, should make him a commodity on the trade market. So assuming Twins can find a way to deal him, what would starting rotation look like for rest of season. My thoughts: SP1 Berrios: Count me in the camp that is 95% in favor of keeping Berrios and looking in the offseason to find a way to sign him to a contract extension. SP2 Maeda: If he can stay healthy----you just got to hope--what else can we do?------he can find some semblance of the reliable (and productive) SP we was in 2020 SP3 Bailey Ober: May be in the minority here.....but I like Ober's upside and he's shown in his starts (subtract starts vs. White Sox) that his stuff can play at this level. Here's where things change... SP4 Charlie Barnes: Promotion from AAA Saint Paul. In 9 GS this season Barnes is 3-2 with a 3.94 ERA/ 1.27 WHIP with a strong K/BB rate (43-15) and respectable/good opponents batting avg (.240). Although Barnes had two BAD starts in June----he did have 3 excellent starts allowing only 1 ER in 17 IP. IMO, its time...rest of season is 100% for evaluation---to see what he (and others) can do. Barnes is only 25. 4th Rd. pick in 2017 draft out of Clemson. SP5 Josh Winder: Yes, I'm going there. Not as highly touted as others (Balazovic & Duran), but this kid is showing he's ready for "The Show" After dominating in 10 starts at Wichita in May and June (only 1 start with 2+ ER allowed)...his performance tonight against Omaha in his AAA debut was nothing short of fantastic. 5.2 IP...1 hit...2 walks...1 ER and 8K's. If he can pitch close to what he's done all season the next 2 weeks, I see ZERO downside to getting him in rotation soon after the AS break. Backup SP Option: Dobnak. Hasn't done much to justify getting regular starts, but his most recent start--if memory serves---showed some promise.

Great to hear that! Thanks for the details. I was hopeful the "moment" wouldn't be too big for him. He sure answered that doubt with a brilliant start. Good things are coming for Winder.

Having attended 4 Wind Surge games (2 in Springfield---2 in mid June in Wichita), I'm sure I'm biased, but I believe Palacios, Moran and Vallimont all merit a higher ranking. Nothing against Colina & Soularie---I wish both a speedy recovery from injury list-----but I'd argue that both fall more into the honorable mention list just because they've done nothing this season. Palacios has been a strong run producer in the middle of Wichita's lineup all season. Vallimont has very good command and pitched consistently in the mid to low 90s in his effective start vs. Springfield on June 15./16. The player I absolutely believe has the "stuff" that will play at the MLB level is Moran. Consistent at 95 with his heater and an changeup that is filthy. His promotion to Saint Paul is only a matter of time.

Lucas: Well...I think you'd agree that Mr. Winder's performance tonight.....5.2 IP...1 hit....2 BB and 8Ks...only 1 ER allowed (RP that followed allowed run) in win over Omaha---should grab the attention of Falvey and company at Target Field. At this point--------losers of 4 straight (I don't have faith in a comeback tonight) with ANOTHER miserable start by Happ-----Winder should be in starting rotation after the ASB.

LA Vikes Fan: I, for one, am in complete agreement with your analysis. Call me an eternal optimist, but if Twins management follows your position-----doing everything possible to retain Berrios, Buxton and Rogers----by investing the financial savings gained by trading Donaldson (big $$) and the prorated salaries of Simmons, Pineda and Cruz--the foundation is there to compete next season. Saying that, Falvey & Levine need to make some serious moves in the offseason to upgrade the rotation and as importantly the bullpen. Those in the camp of trading EVERYBODY, I just don't understand.

Lucas: Nice piece of work with your analysis of these pitchers. With the injuries to Duran and Canterio combined with the early season injury to Jordan Balazovic, I'd like to think that Winder will/could be the 1st promotion to the Twins starting rotation before season's end. When is Winder scheduled to make his first start with the Saints?

Another day of getting sand kicked in our faces by the White Sox. Remember when this was actually a competitive rivalry? Not the case anymore as the Sox have dominated winning 8 of 9 this season outscoring the Twins 76-39. Posted this a few weeks ago...but the Sox have a very good chance (with 10 games remaining) to score 160 runs in our 19 games. Sox are averaging 8.4 runs in their 8 wins. With 10 games left if they can maintain that average that would get to 160. Best news of the day: DFA of Shoemaker. This should've happened a month ago, but glad to see its over. At the time of his signing, I was hopeful he'd contribute (mid 4 ERA) and give us a chance to win. Not the case. Wish him the best in his future. Just add Shoemaker to the LONG LIST of Dollar Tree/General buys this front office has bought over the last 15+ years. Worst News of the day: I'm sure others will argue------but can anyone make the argument of why Derek Law was promoted to take his place? Yes, Law is healthy and has a functional right arm, but his numbers at Saint Paul-------4.61 ERA in 11 games with a 1.54 WHIP and an opponents batting average of .304-------beg the question of---Why him??? Not that it makes a big difference with this rancid bullpen, but if I'm Ian Hamilton, I'm not happy about this. What does Hamilton need to do to get a look? His numbers, imo, strongly prove he was the BETTER option than Law. Hamilton's ERA in 14 games is 1.31---3 runs lower than Law. Opponents are hitting the Mendoza line (.186) and he has 29K's. Other than a poor WHIP (1.50)---18 walks-----he deserved the call up. See the Royals got pulverized again today---------so they'll be chomping at the bit to get home to tee off on Happ tomorrow night. Living only 20 minutes from Kauffman Stadium, I'll take a hard pass on witnessing that pre 4th of July barrage.

For those that believe Shoemaker should continue to pitch IN ANY GAME------please respond with your argument. Yes, Ober's performance was disappointing, but seeing Shoemaker lit up like a firecracker absolutely serves no purpose other than to save the pitch count of other below average RPs. Do the right thing and DFA him tomorrow.

Absolutely agree with your comment, but I'd suggest that until Duran can prove he can stay healthy--that Josh Winder and Balazovic are the "top 2 SPs" in this organization. Considering that Falvey/Levine have yet to produce 1 SP during their tenure that has contributed in a positive fashion at the major league level-----these 2 with Duran really need to our hope for the immediate (2022) future.

Sorry.... 1 more thing to add. How many playoff games have the Twins won over the last 20 years with "nice guys"? That formula of "Minnesota nice guys" has proven to be a colossal failure.

Count me in the (possible) minority, but in NO WAY is JD even remotely even in the Top 5 or 10 of "least likeable Twins players" if the definition is being disliked by your teammates/ home fans. I, personally liked the signing of Donaldson albeit for a large financial commitment. Saying that, coming off a 103 win season in 2019....he was the player that many thought would be the type that wouldn't wet his pant legs in the playoffs. No shock that he was hurt far too much last year. With this train wreck of a season, I can't put the blame in really anyway on Donaldson. Yes, he's struggled at times, but his bat has been much better than others----Sano, Kepler, Garver-----who were expected to produce. On top of that, again I may be in the minority, I like the swagger/style of Donaldson. He's a pest. He's a pain...but the dude plays with EMOTION which has been far to scare a commodity from far too many players on this team for years. I think if you poll his teammates secretly they'd respond they not only like him, but respect the way he plays the game. He's loud and likely abrasive to opponents, but I like that. This game is a competition and JD competes. I respect that.

Roger: I'm sure this will be reported on later tonight, but Balazovic absolutely "got back on track" tonight as he threw 5.2 shutout and NO HIT IP in his start tonight vs. Amarillo. Only 2 walks with 6 K's in a dominant performance. Nice to see this as he'd struggled in his last 2 starts. I was fortunate to see him pitch in Wichita (mid June) when he had a very good start. Like others, but namely, Josh Winder, I hope to see these two in our starting rotation next season.

Having witnessed in person 4 games of Miranda while at Wichita....2 of those just two weeks ago....I, like many others following Miranda knew it was only a matter of time until he got promoted to Saint Paul. Not sure if ANY player in AAA history has hit 3 HRs in his 1st game. Wow! Hopefully, Miranda will take this all in stride as 1 game as some rough games may be on the horizon. Saying that, maybe that won't be the case. From what I saw of him over 20 ABs with Wichita------he has great plate discipline. Is willing to work the count and look for "his pitch" to drive. When he "gets it"---he doesn't miss. Will be interesting to see if Twins management keeps him at 3B or moves him around IF as he played some 1B and 2B with Wichita. Only 1 night, but an amazing night! What a way to celebrate your 23rd birthday. Congratulations Jose. Stay humble young man.

Postgame quote from Baldelli regarding Maeda's horrible performance tonight--------"The humidity made it really difficult for him." Really Rocco? Good grief. Just sad.

Excellent work Seth. Javier is another key piece for the future of this franchise..especially at SS if Royce Lewis moves to the OF in the future. Will make a concerted effort to focus my attention on his continued development. Hopefully will get a chance to see Javier in person as I'm planning for a July 11th--Sunday afternoon game--road trip to see the Kernels play Peoria.

Alex: Spot on with your analysis. Winder has nothing left to prove at AA as he's made 10 starts---9 of those with 2 ER or less allowed. Barnes should be given first opportunity quickly followed by Winder. I've personally seen enough of Thorpe so I'd like to see what Cano and Moran could offer. Moran might take a little longer as I think I noticed he was recently placed on IL. Having seen Moran pitch recently in Wichita------he's got some filthy stuff which hopefully will play at higher levels. I also don't see any downside to bringing Hamilton and Columbe (sp) up as I've seen little to be impressed by Jax and others.

Very good observation as I wondered the same thing. Right now-----and for a large chunk of the season------Simmons ABs have been painful to watch. Far too many unproductive outs with some of the absolute WORST I'VE EVER SEEN swings by a MLB player. His .242 avg and .314 OBP will not be missed next season......or hopefully in August or September as some team desperate for defense will make a decent offer of a prospect or two.

Bummer to see our winning streak come to an end, but with this pitching staff (see below) it was inevitable. A few other observations: 1. Nice to see the continued development of Kirilloff and Larnach. Hopefully, they'll both remain healthy for remainder of season. 2 huge building blocks for the future. Got to believe the defensive future for Kirilloff will be at 1B next season. 2. Nelson Cruz: Nice to see the resurgence of Cruz this month (.400 avg) going 24-60 with 6 jacks and 1`3 RBI after after an abysmal performance in May (.221 avg/ 3 HR/ 6 RBI). Hopefully Falvey can get something of value in a trade as he deserves a shot with team contending to make playoffs. 3. Ryan Jeffers: Also continues to improve with his bat and is FAR superior defensively to Garver. Hope Garver can recover to platoon with Jeffers. As much as I like Rortvedt---his production at the plate is beyond poor (6-47/.128 avg). 4. Gilbert Celestino: Honestly, I like this kid and strongly believe DOWN THE ROAD (2023) he could be a viable MLB starter for Twins somewhere in the OF. Saying that-----he's NOT ready to be playing CF at this level as evidenced by continued lack of production. Now hitting .118 (4-34)--which is bad enough, but it forces Baldelli to pinch hit for him early in the game in any situation with runners on base. Celestino's bat needs development in the minors. He was barely hitting .250 at AA Wichita before his brief call up to Saint Paul. Kid has some excellent defensive tools---not taking into account his bonehead play in KC a couple of weeks ago---but he needs to develop confidence refining his batting skills in AAA or AA. ....and finally............our woebegone pitching staff. Sure would've like to see Ober's command allow him to finish stronger than he did. I think he can be part of the puzzle in our future rotation with Winder, Balazovic, Duran, Sands, Canterino and a few others. Until those young SPs can develop---whatever "plan" Falvey/Levine-Pohlad has for the offseason MUST focus 90% on pitching. Not sure what the ERA is now for our staff/bullpen, but I did discover that in 19 of our now 42 losses (45.2%) our pitching staff has been bludgeoned for 7+ runs. In 10 of those 19 losses (52.6%) our offense has actually scored 4+ runs. For those "keeping score"-------today was the 7th time our pitchers have given up 10 or more runs. Whatever plan was used to put this staff together in the offseason----can be described as nothing better than TOTAL FAILURE.

Just when you think there's a POSSIBILITY that this team might start to resemble the team that many predicted in the offseason----you get squarely kicked right in the cajones. Didn't see the pitch that injured Bux, but the result is just devastating for him. As many may know,...I heard this on FSN the other day------over the last 3 years when Buxton is in the lineup--the Twins are 45 games...yes 45 games OVER.500! When out of the lineup over that time period.....Twins are 5 games UNDER .500. Just really p*ssed off right now. Hopefully, Bux can recover and be back with the team soon after the All-Star break. Until then, it appears Baldelli will have to continue to shuffle his lineup to cover CF. IMO, that coverage should be a combination of Kepler, Gordon and possibly Refsnyder whenever he come off IL. In no way should Celestino be called back up! His bat is obviously NOT ready to contribute as evidenced by his .125 avg (4-32), 7K/1BB with an abysmal .152 OBP and .402 OPS.

Answers to your questions? No No No

John: Appreciate your clarification on the players I cited in my post. Good work on your salary observations as things stand right now. A lot of big decisions for the front office to make.

Upon further review.... as I pay attention to this.....many of the "numbers" quoted for 2022 salaries are incorrect or projections from arbitration. My source is: Spotrac.com/ mlb team payrolls Garver is NOT making 3.8mill for 2022. He's making $1.875 mill this season. He could get that increase for 2022, but I doubt it. Polanco: making $5.50 mill for 2022-------not $5.0 mill Sano: As noted by another----is NOT making $12 mill next year-----he's guaranteed (ugh!!) $9.25m. Has $14.25m CLUB option for 2023. Buxton: Is NOT guaranteed $8.5m for next year as he's ARB4 eligible. Making $5.125mill for 2021. If Twins can't sign him long term....I wouldn't be shocked to see Buxton (if he can stay healthy for remainder of this season) file for at least $10mill in arbitration. Rogers: Making $6.0 mill this season. Like Buxton is approaching his last year (4) of arbitration. $7.5 mill is a projection. Berrios: Making $6.1mill this season. Entering 3rd year of arbitration. $9.0 mill, again is a projection through arbitration process. Like Buxton, I could see Berrios filing at $10mill plus in arbitration.