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ashbury

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Everything posted by ashbury

  1. ashbury
    Wow, this makes you like, what, 124 years old now? I bet you and USAFChief can swap some stories, eh?
  2. ashbury
    This part of the waiver-claim process needs to change. If you decide to drop the player from your 40-man, within some period of time I'll leave others to define, he should be revert back to the previous team and waivers resume, and the previous team can stash him if he clears this time.
  3. ashbury
  4. ashbury
    Sorry but this sounds a lot like when my wife tells me, "it's up to you," and then later can say she didn't tell me what to do.
  5. ashbury
    Well-called.
  6. ashbury
    Yes, and if AA outfielder Tyler Goeddel is likely the first pick (by Philly), then it seems like Michael could be on some team's radar too.
  7. ashbury
    That observation should make any infielder hang his head in shame.
  8. ashbury
    This was the item that somehow I wasn't factoring in. The money's freed up to be redeployed some other way. Maybe not quite as favorably as retaining a player good enough to WANT to opt out. But it mitigates the loss, in the upside case. I'm still pretty meh about acquiring Shields for Nolasco, because his 2015 represents new information that wasn't available when his contract was signed a year earlier. The odds of the contract turning out to approach its worst case can't be the same as back then, yet the cost that factors in those risks hasn't changed. I just want the pain to end, not be extended by a year and to a higher degree, so that colors my approach to computing an expectation value or whatever. My thinking also might be different if I believed the team would be willing to eat the last two years of an untradable $21M/yr contract, were the gamble to fail and that was the way such a trade played out. The fact they haven't already jettisoned Nolasco speaks to that. But it's not April yet and maybe a poor spring really will mean cutting ties with Ricky. Which would mean they didn't make this highly hypothetical trade for Shields, but now this is getting pretty darn circular.
  9. ashbury
    I don't think their methodology claims to be able to separate the cases of "bounceback candidate" and "about to fall off the side of a cliff" for individual players past 30.* It just seems to split the difference of recent seasons, with a small aging factor added. Which may be wise, but doesn't really count as independent data on the subject. * Nor do I.
  10. ashbury
    I just hadn't remembered the details of Shields's contract. The opt-out changes the calculation of risk and reward, beyond the standard "will he bounce back or not" dilemma. It's also true that he could have a "good" 2016 but not one that would lead him to opt out. Then good seasons the following two or even three years would be a lot of value. Given that contracts for starting pitching aren't going down, you'd have to kind of thread the needle to get the level of goodness without it being "too" good. In sum, there's a significant cap on the size of the upside in getting Shields due to the opt-out, and coupled with the cost (both aggregate and per-year) being higher than Nolasco, I'm thinking the expectation value comes out pretty close to a wash.
  11. ashbury
    It's not the worst case. It's the best case. And you are shouldering the risk of up to 3 bad years at an even higher price than Nolasco, to gain it.
  12. ashbury
    Yeah, but the only way Shields opts out is if he has a very good year, good enough to create hopes for an offer greater than $21M a year. And in that case you don't want him to opt out. So that puts a serious cap on the upside a Nolasco for Shields deal would offer: you aren't trading for 3 good years of Shields, you are trading for (the chance at) 1. Seems to me you'd be trading mostly for the downside risk Shields carries. Sounds like 3-1 odds even if the chance of a bounceback season is 50-50.
  13. ashbury
    The human brain, and especially hand-eye coordination, already is a miracle. He suffered that concussion a year ago, and it's at least a mystery whether it has contributed to slightly degraded vision at the plate, and whether it will mend any further on its own given time. Healing's another kind of miracle. I don't think anybody has questioned Buxton's work ethic. So if repetition was the solution, the problem would already be solved. My prescription for the young fella is to relax this winter, maybe play a lot of video games to unwind, keep the mind off of sliders and curveballs, go fishing and let the batteries recharge, and then come to camp and see what happens. I think I read somewhere that there's a correlation between playing baseball and being good at certain video games, so my prescription is only partly tongue in cheek.
  14. ashbury
    I don't think he has to do anything miraculous, conversely the position shouldn't be just handed to him. What it should come down to next Spring is not his numbers, but the eyeball test: is he laying off the breaking pitches in the dirt, and is he giving a good whack to pitches in his zone? Pitch recognition was THE problem, even against AA pitchers last spring, and until that's not the problem or he has no more minor league options he should spend time in AAA correcting it. And because CF is a crucial position on any team, the roster will look like a jumble until a more viable Plan B is in place.
  15. ashbury
    What is all this fuss I hear about the Twins giving Casey Fien a Qualifying Offer? http://media.zenfs.com/en-US/video/video.snl.com/SNL_0007_13_Update_2_Emily_Latella.png
  16. ashbury
    Wow, somebody's mind got changed on an issue? This never would have happened, on Facebook.
  17. ashbury
    For the record, the moderation team has taken, and will continue to take, a dim view at attempts at jokes in this vein.
  18. ashbury
    There is a stat, Win Probability Added, that attempts to factor in the leverage of each game situation, and the fractional credit thus gained is added up over the entire season. The illustrious Gilmartin earned a 2015 season total of negative 0.4 wins. Good catch. http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/NYM/2015-pitching.shtml
  19. ashbury
    Plus cash. Don't forget the cash. 1999 was when cash was paramount to the Twins. They gambled and took the guy the Marlins wanted and made 'em pay, plus getting a usable spare part in return.
  20. ashbury
    If we send just to your teachers, maybe you can apply for a refund.
  21. ashbury
    LOL, because teh concussionzes.
  22. ashbury
    The thing that bugs me about Dean is that he spent his age-26 year at AAA, yet wasn't deemed by the Twins worthy of a September look-see in mopup duty, which would only have cost them the unusable Aaron Thompson being dropped from the 40-man (I think), but now they don't want him snapped up by some other team.
  23. ashbury
    Soon as I scrolled down and saw "Hard-Throwing Relievers With Control Trouble" I said, here we are.
  24. ashbury
    Molitor did try Sano in the 3rd spot, and was rewarded with a .587 OPS. Anybody else he might have tried, taking their full season stats at face value, among those with enough PA to qualify, would have raised our ranking in the above list to... next to last. Escobar at .754. There just weren't enough good options to cause Molitor's hand to be forced. One can argue that Sano should have been moved up from 4th to 3rd more often. Not a game changer. The problem was the roster itself. This is not yet a good hitting team.
  25. ashbury
    There would be some entertainment value in watching a corner infielder working in the bullpen, too.
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