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ashbury

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Everything posted by ashbury

  1. ashbury
    It takes a village.
  2. ashbury
    I hope Gordon can unlock the missing piece or two that's holding him back from success. Limited sample size is always the risk for a fan watching a prospect at a game or two, but I never saw anything much from him at the plate against AAA opposition, and on defense he's one of those players who "makes the tough play look difficult."
  3. ashbury
    Sparse crowds or not, I am SO. FREAKING. JEALOUS.
  4. ashbury
    Oh, I've said it before, and it's almost a self-parody by now. But i do think they put in some time and effort, not on primary scouting themselves, but synthesizing scouting reports from somewhere. They do not state exactly how they create their scouting ratings (and I've asked). I find that their ratings track pretty well, when I compare them for instance to individual articles about players or whatever. The big thing is it's comprehensive, for every player in every major league organization, plus a lot of upcoming prospects for the June draft - so I can look up any player on a moment's notice and get a sense of their skill set. Without further coyness: Out Of The Park Baseball I find OOTP worth the $35 or so for each year's new version, just for the scouting insights alone. (I might also have devoted an hour, or two, or more, to playing the game during the past year. ) Scoffers, scoff as ye will - I deserve it and I own up to it.
  5. ashbury
    My money is on Known Agenda, once he retires.
  6. ashbury
    No. According to the quick and dirty source I go to, the ranking on defense might be Larnach > Kirilloff >> Rooker. None has good range, Rooker's being "adequate" only.
  7. ashbury
    Separating cause from effect is always a hidden snare when looking at stats. The leverage was spread around. Was this due to an organizational philosophy, or the manager's philosophy? Or did they envision a by-now traditional closer/setup arrangement, and the individuals slated for such duty disappointed often enough to cause a change in plans? Or maybe there is an additional explanation I didn't think of. I don't see how to tease this information out from the aggregate stats. Possibly some kind of game-by-game analysis from the game logs will reveal strong trends in the early season that became reversed midway through, or not, which I guess is what's coming next. Fortunately for discussion purposes, the concept of the leverage index apparently isn't unknown to at least one of the relievers on the staff. Perhaps the concept is even widely discussed among players and coaches, if in slightly different terms than hard-core analytics uses. Maybe someone with access at Ft Myers, hint hint , can mention these aggregate numbers to an insider and ask about their perception of the cause. Or maybe that is coming in Part 3.
  8. ashbury
    Can they be relegated to a soccer minor league?
  9. ashbury
    Yeah, that's what I call my fastball, too!
  10. ashbury
    Sure, it's a basis, but not the final word. The high-end company my daughter works for has made it plain that in this difficult economy, they are not only not laying off anyone, but they are selectively hiring aggressively, on the theory of picking off plum employees from competitors who are focusing on their current bottom line. The strategy worked great for them during the 2007-2011 downturn. (Past performance is no guarantee of future results... ) The point is not to specifically defend a $140M payroll, but to suggest that it wouldn't be crazy for a team to decide this is the year to be contrarian and invest in some way.
  11. ashbury
    Per Phil Miller, the Twins have announced that Lewis underwent successful surgery yesterday.
  12. ashbury
    Sometimes the spell check software guesses correctly, sometimes the spell check software horseradish.
  13. ashbury
    I always enjoyed Howie (No Relation to Randy) Newman:
  14. ashbury
    "The Lighter Side of Devastating Sports Injuries, Volume 1"
  15. ashbury
    Cleveland. But otherwise I share your view.
  16. ashbury
    I too would like to see a floor. But $150M sounds more than a tad high to me. I don't know where the "50% of revenue" target for major league salaries actually came from, and it probably presumes a right to a 15% profit on revenues so I am willing to let the least successful teams fail to hit that target by a bit, or even (*gasp*) lose money in an occasional year. But there are 7 teams with revenue (according to Forbes) below $275M, and I don't think those teams are just lazy and need some new incentive to market themselves better. The Miamis and Oaklands are going to have a problem with such a high floor. A floor of even $110M would be such a huge step in the right direction anyway, and would be a show of good faith.
  17. ashbury
    I hope Byron's added muscle will finally be the key to him laying off the outside breaking stuff in the dirt.
  18. ashbury
    I wanted to ask yesterday too: how did you break what appears to be a tie?
  19. ashbury
    A system that prevents a college player from reaching free agency until his 30s or so is probably a non-starter with the players' association. I'd also question whether the intent was to further hollow out the NCAA baseball program and basically coerce every good prospect to sign professionally after high school.
  20. ashbury
    Then I need to find one of those lying idiots because the vaccine is in short supply here in Massachusetts.
  21. ashbury
    Could be a tinge of groupthink going on. Each team has its own talent evaluators, of course. But there has to be something appealing about knowing another team thought well enough of a player to spend a 40-man roster spot on him. When that other team has to ask waivers, you at least look at him, if you have a spot open. He might not be even Plan B in your depth charts, but all else being equal you want your emergency role fillers to be as good as possible. Grabbing-then-waiving is one method of shoring up the AAA depth, and there's practically no downside.
  22. ashbury
    I like the Simmons signing, but personally I'm pumping the brakes on expectations for him. The Angels didn't suddenly start winning division titles when they acquired him, and that was more in his prime. I expect him to be the best defensive SS in the group, but not other-worldly anymore. And his bat will be a mild minus.
  23. ashbury
  24. ashbury
    Remember when you got held back a year in school, and had to repeat second grade? It was because you were so smart, and the teachers knew it, so they needed to evaluate some of the other students for third grade, and give them a chance, before you. It's kind of like that.
  25. ashbury
    On the contrary, playing "the game" as you call it, so that the player is an extra year older before free agency can be attained under the CBA, can be either 1) what helps nudge him toward signing the long-term contract, and/or 2) what helps lower the cost of that contract to the team by a few million. It's not the pleasantest part of a player's life, but the owners and players union hammered out all the details, and we shouldn't call it silly for either side to then work within those rules to their perceived benefit. "Baseball has become a business" is the constant lament since professional leagues were first formed in the 19th century. "Nobody plays for the love of the sport anymore." Nope, they don't.
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