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ashbury

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Everything posted by ashbury

  1. ashbury
    I agree with what you're saying, but it leaves out the crucial point that I think Terry Ryan is considering and with which I also agree. When you sign a guy to a multi-year contract, you are taking on a fair degree of risk. Now, one may look at a particular stud pitcher and guess that there is no risk based on his track record, but I don't think the record bears that out - in a previous post I took a look at the league's best starters 5 years ago and the 2012 record for those pitchers was pretty bad if you had paid big money that included this year in the contract. Now, sometimes, it makes sense to take on that risk. But to do it now, means you are taking the risk of a Marcum or Jackson being bad in the last year of his contract, in exchange for ... what? A more competitive 2013? It's a bad bargain. Two years from now, when the team is really ready to compete, there will be the equivalents of Marcum and Jackson available. At that point, you might take on future risk in exchange for solidifying something for the 2015 team. You really are getting something of value in exchange for the risk. There's nothing so unique about the talent available for signing today that says you need to pull the trigger on it. I guess I'm belaboring the point, but so many posters seem puzzled by what Terry Ryan is doing this off-season. It doesn't seem puzzling to me at all.
  2. ashbury
    You can't undo the Blackburn contract (and he wasn't signed to be a #5 at the time), and you like the Pelfrey signing for the amount they agreed on. That doesn't leave much for Jackson or Marcum or whoever else. So you're basically saying you want the Twins to spend more. Which, they have room to do. Blackburn and Pelfrey are red herrings in this - the question is whether Kevin-money should have been applied toward Edwin-money.
  3. ashbury
    By the time Mauer is eligible for votes, Posey's career will already be in much clearer focus - who's to say Posey isn't a first-baseman by that time? A lot can happen.
  4. ashbury
    Hey, Bobby, your mailbox here is full. Drop me a line sometime.
  5. ashbury
    For a lock? Mauer needs a few more All-Star seasons, and needs significant MVP votes in a few more seasons, and needs to rack up healthy career totals. Five more healthy years with three of them at an All-Star level, and we're talking lock. Something below that, but still decent longevity, and his chances remain good.
  6. ashbury
    Right. It may not be that exactly the same voices saying "Ryan should wait for some team to overpay" are also saying "why isn't Ryan doing more?". But the overall din sounds like that. Highly favorable deals do not pop up every day, and for now Willingham's contract would be hard to replace with another stopgap OF solution that gets us to 2015, so why move him just for the sake of motion if the prospects in return aren't likely to contribute strongly to the next contending squad?
  7. ashbury
    It varies. At the moment, I right clicked on the four topmost articles on the main page to put them in separate tabs, and I see: Twins still seeking third base help? - main page claims 7 comments, top of the article says 1 comment, I see 1 comment State of the starting corps - main page claims 63 comments, top of the article says 1 comment, at end of article is says 12 comments, I count 12 Twins week in the winter leagues - main page claims 19 comments, top of article says 19, end of article says 19, I count 19 Gleeman and the Geek - main page says nothing about comments, top of article says 0, end of article says nothing, I see none So the last two seem to work correctly, the other two don't.
  8. ashbury
    I don't think it would be practical to convert him from hockey goalie to outfield.
  9. ashbury
    I wonder, if someone wanted to pick the day/location likely to have the sparsest crowd, just for the most personal experience I guess, which one would he go to?
  10. ashbury
    How about in Twins history? Knoblauch had .965 in 1996. Carew reached only .919 as a 2Bman; by the time he had his monster year he was fulltime 1B. Is any other Twins player in the discussion?
  11. ashbury
    This is the weak part of the signing; Boras is his agent. While I am no Boras-hater, I don't think the track record says a successful Pelfrey would sign for a team-friendly 2014 contract.
  12. ashbury
    Everybody posts, nobody reads. Everybody posts, nobody reads.
  13. ashbury
    Jason Tyner too.
  14. ashbury
    Nick's "Hot Stove" article seems to work correctly for me now. Did you implement a fix, or is this just another manifestation of the "now you see it, now you don't" nature of the bug?
  15. ashbury
    If Nick Punto could bring Clayton Kershaw with him to the Twins, that would be awesome.
  16. ashbury
    You're right.
  17. ashbury
    This. I looked in vain for any further detail supporting the early paraphrase by the author that there's no guarantee. I'd want to see the exact question, and Ryan's exact answer, before inferring very much. It's very likely Terry was guided to talk a bit about the risks for this pitcher, he answered, and then it got slanted in a way that's pretty neutral to a neutral observer but a hot button to a Twins adherent. I don't think Campbell has it out for Ryan, but he didn't really do him any favors either.
  18. ashbury
    If other threads are being commented on, it can be that threads on a certain topic aren't visible on the main page unless you search for them. The search tool is right there near the top, but it's small (and is one of two search boxes so it's easy to use the wrong one). A slight redesign of the main page to highlight the search box as one of the major things to use at this fine site might do the trick...
  19. ashbury
    I don't have much to add, except my particular configuration. From the middle of the main TD page I click on the Hot Stove article and get taken to Twins Daily - Twins Should Strike While Stove is Hot Despite the main page saying I would see 34 comments (at the moment), the new page that is opened up shows in the summary at top that there is only 1 comment: Twins Should Strike While Stove is Hot[TABLE] [/TD] [TD] [/TABLE] by Nick Nelson Published on 12-13-2012 11:04 PM 1 Comment I am running on Windows 7 SP 1 (v1.07.00.AE B08). The same result occurs whether I use Firefox 10.0.11, Internet Explorer 64-bit 8.0.7601.17514, or the non-64-bit IE of the same version number. I have tried flushing the cache. Since I rarely use IE, I would not expect cache to be an issue anyway. HTH, as they say.
  20. ashbury
    My snap reaction was yes I would sign Sanchez. Then I tried to think about how Terry Ryan sees it, in terms of risk. Sign him to 5 years, then the last year of the contract you'll be paying him (say) $15M or $16M in 2017. This is right in the heart of the new window of competitiveness, right? Will that $16M be part of the winning formula? Or will it be a boat-anchor preventing you from making a deal to push this juggernaut team to a second straight title? Well, roll the clock back 5 years to 2007. Not that all of these pitchers were available to sign at the time, but let's focus on who was completing his 28-year-old season, just as Sanchez is now. Limit it to guys who clearly were established starters. These 28-year-olds were: Carlos Silva Johan Santana Gil Meche John Lackey Jeremy Guthrie Mark Buehrle Erik Bedard Isn't this kind of a Murderer's Row of pitchers who teams actually *did* make an investment in? And with the exception of Buehrle, aren't they the ones that, 5 years later, fans of their current teams wail and gnash their teeth over? Now put yourself in Ryan's shoes. Are you really going to pull the trigger on Sanchez for 5 years? As I said above, I would. And this quick little bit of research reaffirms my reminder to myself, that when Terry Ryan and I disagree about something, take another good hard look.
  21. ashbury
    But, but, but... Jack Morris!
  22. ashbury
    Depends then on whether Dempster accepts the conventional wisdom that the Red Sox are never more than a few check-signings from legitimate contention. I'm also not that enthused about a 2013-14 Twins squad "competing" where the bar is around .500. That to me is just a fluke, although an enjoyable one, compared to the World Series-contending team that we hope is brewing ca. 2015 forward. Signing Dempster to 2 years is just a bridge to that, and I presume Dempster can infer the same as I can.
  23. ashbury
    Nick started a full thread elsewhere, so probably further responses should be directed there.
  24. ashbury
    Guh, I posed a similar question a few minutes before as a followup in a thread. I suggested $28M as a starting point to get him to give the Twins the time of day, but $30 may be more realistic. Might need a vesting option for a third year, as well, or he'd say no thanks I'll go with a contender for now. That's still better (to me) than a fully guaranteed third year for when the team has really turned the corner and he could have proved to be useless by then. We really were fed bad information, with a presumption of 3 years, and a preference for the NL, and for Spring Training in Arizona. This actual deal blows up all three. Agents lying? When did that start?
  25. ashbury
    Seeing Jason Tyner on the list ... he's the guy I keep thinking of when the concept of Darin Mastroianni being our opening day CFer is mentioned. A guy who plays CF when in AAA but somehow ends up in a corner OF position in the majors, an OPS based mainly on BA... pretty similar guys. Darin does have a little more home run power, and will take a walk a little more often. A little. Some guys are born to be fourth outfielders.
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