ashbury

Arcia could get "worse" in 2013 and still be on track for a very good major league career, so put me down for a AAA OPS of .700 or so with a positive trend as the season goes along.

The lost verses of Ecclesiastes!

My beer-league first baseman > Delmon's "best" OF position

Apparently you want to believe I believe that, despite my using no stats, other than games and innings pitched and this new-fangled one called "the outcome of the game". You weren't talking about the 2-1, 3-2, 4-3 games. You asserted that he had some ability to stop giving up runs after giving up five or six. Unfortunately, if you look at the results, this ability doesn't show up. In his good season of 2010, in those six game where he gave up that many runs: - April 18: (L 10-5) 6 runs in the top of the third, Gardy ran him out there again in the fourth where he lasted one-third more inning and was charged with another run before Burnett came in with the score 6-3 - May 18: (L 11-2) Blue Jays scored 2, 2, 1, and 1 run in the first four innings. Gardy had seen enough and brought in Mahay to start the fifth with the score 6-1 - July 6: (W 7-6) Blue Jays scored 1 in the third and 4 in the fifth to take a 5-2 lead. Twins came back to tie it in the sixth and scored another run to take the lead in the seventh, Pavano then gave up a leadoff homer to tie it up again, and after one more batter Gardy brought in Mijares. Twins came back with another run and Rauch finished with a save - August 19: (L 11-0) Pavano began the seventh inning behind 5-0 (two in the first, two in the third, one in the fifth), gave up two hits without recording an out to make it 6-0, Perkins came in and eventually allowed the seventh earned run to score - September 16: (W 8-5) Pavano carried a 6-2 lead into the sixth, gave up two homers and then a double to the first three batters making it 6-4, Gardy replaced him with Mijares and Guerrier who let the runner score to make it 6-5, Twins added two insurance runs in the ninth - September 25: (L 11-10) Going into the bottom of the fourth leading 5-2, Pavano coughed up the lead by allowing 5. Gardy let him finish the inning then brought in Perkins for the fifth. Twins scored five of their own, then allowed the Tigers to tie it, then they lost in the 13th. My point is not to demean Pavano - these were his worst games in a very good season. You're the one who said he wasunusually able to battle back. Ron Gardenhire did not seem to share your confidence. I didn't locate any games that year where he gave up 5 runs in, say, the first two innings and then shot goose eggs for six or seven more. And again, no arcane stats or anything. Just results from games. I approached these with an open mind, looking for evidence for what you asserted. I just don't see it. This takes a lot of time. I'll let you perform your own research, from here on. Maybe you can find some magic pixie dust in Kevin Correia's game results; I hope you do because I also believe in Terry Ryan and I hope he's made a good signing.

Joe Niekro could teach the staff the fine art of dealing with a defective baseball that is too smooth and perfect.

OK, so right off the bat you're displaying some sort of chip on your shoulder. Don't know why. I assume you mean Pavano's first two full seasons with the Twins? Similar, in that he started 32/33 games and pitched 221/222 innings? They weren't that similar. The first full season, 2010, he was among the top 20 pitchers in the league - not an all star but very effective, and the second best of his career. In that season, he gave up five or more earned runs six times, and the Twins were 2-4 in those games, as he "kept them in the game" to win 7-6 and 8-5 in those two games, while in the losses the scores were more like 11-2 except for one game they lost 11-10 where giving up 7 runs in 4 innings looks kind of decisive. That second season, 2011, he was far from good, and at best he might have been in the top 50 in the league - he gave up five or more runs ten times, and the Twins were 1-9 in those games, lots of 10-3 and 9-5 and 5-2 kinds of losses where he clearly didn't keep them in the game, with one 9-8 win they managed to eke out. See, you want to say that the stats don't bear out what you "know", that the Twins had a shot to win when he stepped onto the mound. But there are concrete records you can check, to see whether a game-to-game claim is supported either. It's not just a bunch of complicated stats standing between you and your preferred reality.

This is the key. It's not like he suddenly "developed" power, the power was there, he just seemed (for a brief glorious time) to be able to lay off the pitcher's pitch and get one to his liking. And then it went away - due to the wrist, due to "the book" on him getting updated, I don't know, but if it's the latter then he and Brunansky have some work to do this spring. I also liked the comment about him and Mauer having a heart-to-heart, in the same spirit of *recognizing* and laying off the pitch you don't want, and turning on the pitch you do.Since baseball's a game of constant adjustments, I am cautiously optimistic.

Predates even Gardy. Does the name Puckett ring a bell?

Because of the way the talent curve works, there is a very fine line between a successful utility guy and a regular. Odds are that a utility guy that can actually hit gets a shot at a starting role soon after. Which of course would suit this Twins fan just fine.

I'll put him down for better. Steadier on defense, more consistent on offense. Not an all-star, but solid. Let's hope.

This raises a point I frequently wonder about when looking at someone's rankings - what does it *mean* to rank one player above another? While it's a combination of dimensions, the end result has to be a single dimension. To me, the closest this comes is to "trade value". If the Twins decided they were going to trade for a front-line starter, or a really good shortstop, they know they'd have to part with some young talent - so, would you trade Buxton or Sano to get that elite player in return, and if so which one more willingly? That's how I view the notion that Colabello isn't in the top 30, because even those who like to root for him would flip him in a heartbeat if any team offered a moderately good pitching prospect in return, sooner than Mason Melotakis or Daniel Ortiz. Or, care to rebut this trade value idea? Any pair on your list that you think would fetch different amounts in trade but their ranking is opposite to their return, for reasons you'd still support and defend? Just thinking out loud here...

I used your guide last year to make my visit one to remember, and the improvements for this year will help those who go now, I'm sure.

I've been on board with the moves Ryan has made that seem keyed to 2015 and beyond. But I don't see that as totally exclusive to also spending the dough to make a better 2013-14 than we are seeing. "They" said that Target Field would provide the financial means to get after it every season. And I don't think expecting a payroll above $100M even in a rebuilding year equates to "spend for the sake of spending".

Nick with a Stick? Just as the zen that can be spoken is not the true zen, the Nick Punto who can hit is not the true Nick Punto.

Scott Diamond still counted as a rookie, didn't he?

I wonder if this is the kind of conversation Kevin Slowey had with Ron Gardenhire between innings.

If baseball-reference.com lists a guy at 200 now, I assume he weighed a good 10-20 pounds less as an 18-year old. May be a bad assumption. As for the lefty-righty thing, yeah, that was a bad oversight - obviously I was just spitballing some names and looking them up, and forgot to check handedness. Maybe Greinke is a decent comp in terms of size - hopefully not in his introverted makeup though.

A pitcher who no team was willing to give a major-league contract is the difference between making .500 or not for the Twins?

JO is slightly taller and weighs more than Lincecum already, and he's not even reached his 19th birthday so he could fill out some more, maybe even grow another inch taller. And since their paths shape up to be so different, isn't there some other pitcher with similar body-type and stuff to use for the comp? Matt Moore is listed as 6'2" and 205 today, quite a lot smaller in stature than the Verlanders and Prices of the world - when he was signed as an 18-year-old I wonder if he profiled all that differently from JO today. Moore had a nice introduction in the Appalachian League as an 18-19 year old, and he turned out all right. I don't know what kinds of pitches Moore throws, versus Berrios, though - so maybe he's a poor comp. How about Gio Gonzalez? 6'0" and 200, also hot stuff in the Appy League when 18 - is/was his stuff comparable?

And this is not a matter of teams screwing players; it is the procedure set up in the collective bargaining agreement and agreed to by the players' union as well as the owners. Any hard feelings by a young star should be taken up with the team's union rep and then on up through channels, and not focused on the team's front office; if there's a real problem then it can be negotiated at the next CBA. Fans (IMO) can take note but mainly move on to other topics.

This is what makes it hard to use Timmy as a comp - they start off on very different timetables, and always will be because of the rules surrounding Rule-5 drafts and so on.

I attended my first spring training in Ft Myers in 2012. Had a blast; I was completely surprised how one can just walk in and witness the everyday goings-on. Being within 20 feet of Tom Kelly training a bunch of first-basemen was one of several highlights. Nothing you said here says that this part of the atmosphere is changing for 2013, but you imply that it might not last forever, and that would be a shame, and would somewhat kill the golden goose IMO.

His ability to stay within the bullpen should be explored, as well.

Agreed; I already feel dumber just for having read this.

I think a GM for any mid-market team would be grossly negligent if he didn't attempt to maximize the assets he has to work with. A full season of Hicks and Gibson in 2013 will be not yet in their prime, and I would not trade a year when they are around 30 in order to get those few more weeks now. If the Twins happen to get off to a hot start, bring them up in May; if they are at 6-12 or some similar level then wait longer and try playing the arbitration game as well, rather than throw good money after bad for the 2013 edition of the team.