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ashbury

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Everything posted by ashbury

  1. ashbury
    Effectively wild; do I earn a cliche point?
  2. ashbury
    Perkins: shakes tiny fist at Parmelee.
  3. ashbury
    tl;dnr
  4. ashbury
    Well, I'm about done beating this horse, whether it's dead or alive. But if these both reduce the win probability, then something else must raise it, and those are mostly associated with having Dozier hit away (and this time succeeding). Bottom line, for me at least, is that bunt or not-bunt was indeed a close decision, and I'm currently persuaded that hitting away was a stronger choice than I originally thought. And I think the top of the order being up only strengthens that choice.
  5. ashbury
    I think we're both on the same track then. First line was before the decision on Dozier, next two lines represent two possible outcomes, but there are others, and together (and properly weighted by frequency) they should all add back up to the first line's percentage. Most of the missing outcomes involve Dozier hitting safely or walking, and those should be lumped together with the second line, when deciding whether to bunt or not. That's my take, anyway.
  6. ashbury
    He's been sneaking a look at my avatar, hasn't he? / edit: oops, sbk went the same direction and sooner, while I was updating and typing... I'll go with it anyway.
  7. ashbury
    Parmelee homering also factors into the computation somewhere, I think.
  8. ashbury
    Maybe I'm misreading, or maybe I'm not saying it clearly. Line one is before you make the decision whether to bunt or hit away, yes? (Florimon's already given you the two-run lead, now Dozier is up.)
  9. ashbury
    That represents a little bit of a second guess, though. Sac bunts are usually successful. I think these numbers mean that we are leaving out the chance (proven untrue by events as they already unfolded) of Dozier getting a base hit of some kind, or a walk. If you start with 86.3, and the bunt leaves you at 84.6, then not bunting ought to be above 86.3... but maybe I'm missing something in statistical inference.
  10. ashbury
    Long inning to sit, facing a day off, it seems reasonable to me.
  11. ashbury
    Just drop it.
  12. ashbury
    Bullpen ought to be able to hold a three run lead for three innings; but yes, let's hope there's no reason to look back at that inning.
  13. ashbury
    That's actually some information I'd want to have at hand, for a more serious second look. However, those are just averages, and not taking into account that this is the 2-3-4 part of the lineup, and also not taking into account that Carroll is subbing today in the 2 hole and Morneau will be facing a lefty...
  14. ashbury
    Late innings are when you know with more confidence the value of a single run. Given that another run was already in, it's a close decision to me, but a bunt would be defensible strategy.
  15. ashbury
    I tend to over-think these scenarios and assume wheels within wheels are turning in the front office and the dugout, but this is what I think could be going on as well. Pelfrey may already have refused the minor league assignment, management says "OK, show us, and given your one-year contract you may want to reconsider".
  16. ashbury
    And I see that his BA now exceeds one of the Tigers' in the lineup, albeit a little-used infielder whose average could jump with one hit.
  17. ashbury
    I'm not going to kick, whichever way Gardy chooses. Depends on whether he wants his bullpen to get a little work in, versus having his starter try to go 7. Can accomplish both by sending him out but with a one-baserunner leash and the bullpen firing on all cylinders right away.
  18. ashbury
    After some processing, sure; knock yourself out. / obGame: c'mon Scottie, bear down
  19. ashbury
    Apparently you don't have to be 30+ years old to earn the right to throw > 100 pitches in a game, in some corners of the league.
  20. ashbury
    Whoever clicks Like for me the most times this game gets a date with the Avatar girl. / air fare to American Samoa not included
  21. ashbury
    And here I was worried that *I* would jinx things by showing up and posting during that good streak of innings.
  22. ashbury
    So you have to die to win? Then here's rooting for an early win for you, Chief. / I keed, I keed
  23. ashbury
    Not a mod, but: It's for people who use the Internet. You can just skip it.
  24. ashbury
    You were saying you would send $200 to the address given in my blog....
  25. ashbury
    National Lampoon had a sports issue one time in which a player was listed on the DL as having a sprained body, or perhaps it was ruptured body, I forget which.
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