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ashbury

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Everything posted by ashbury

  1. ashbury
    PS, I just got an AM/PM ad with unsolicited sound on my ISP's home page, so it's definitely not TD's fault; nevertheless the ad agency's feet need to be held to the fire.
  2. ashbury
    Here's one. I was operating in another tab (Firefox) and started hearing sound and went here and did a screen grab. It's the AM/PM ad on the right
  3. ashbury
    Setting the bar pretty high, are we now?
  4. ashbury
    Many minor league catchers switch to another position. Do you think that his defense elsewhere also wouldn't be close to acceptable, or that his bat won't "play" anywhere but at an up-the-middle defensive position?
  5. ashbury
    I'm in the camp that views him as a utility player for a ceiling. More specifically, a good utility player for a contending team, or a starter for a bad team. Since I don't want the Twins to continue being bad, I don't focus on the latter. But what you said (ignoring names of other candidates) fits in with this general POV. He'll stop being a starter when the Twins reach the state where he shouldn't be their starter, IMO.
  6. ashbury
    Moderator's note: Yep. I'd add that bashing, as such, usually violates respectful dialog, so that might be why you don't see much. Disrespect and trolling/threadjacking are the two most important taboos highlighted in the TD Comment Policy. OTOH intelligent and constructive criticism of the team, even when highly pointed, has never been grounds for moderator action. Any thread stands to be subjected to somebody wanting to look at things from a "higher level" or other forms of topic drift, and a certain amount of it makes for lively discussion. But a write-up of a day's minor league results doesn't need to become a referendum on the state of the Twins franchise, because that could be repeated every day. I think that point has been reached now; if someone wants to continue the high-level discussion of the Twins organization, please start a new thread.
  7. ashbury
    If they're going to give half a dozen Holds to the winning team tonight for maintaining a 2-run lead, they could throw couple to the losing team for maintaining a close enough deficit.
  8. ashbury
    Seems like a little while ago Morris went out for the tenth inning.
  9. ashbury
    'Fines' as a verb reads one way, as an adjective it goes a different direction. Not funny? That's fine, you can fine me.
  10. ashbury
    Seems like a little while ago Gene Larkin hit that fly ball.
  11. ashbury
    To quote Chief: Yes.
  12. ashbury
    Prostitute Appeals To Judge Who Tried Her Tomorrow: Judge Will Give Deaf Mute Hearing
  13. ashbury
    Rondell White and Bud Black would blow A&C's mind.
  14. ashbury
    Tomorrow's headline: Suicide Bomber Strikes Funeral - At Least Two Dead
  15. ashbury
    Headline from 1982: British Left Waffles On Falkland Islands
  16. ashbury
    Tomorrow's headline: Headless Body Found In Topless Bar
  17. ashbury
    Tomorrow's headline: Greeks Fine Prostitutes
  18. ashbury
    Tomorrow's headline: Marijuana Issue Sent To Joint Committee
  19. ashbury
    And they beat him again tonight. Too bad they won't hang the 'L' on him though.
  20. ashbury
    Fixed that for you.
  21. ashbury
    Well, just to be picky, ERA is to a lesser extent "what should have happened", if certain plays the Official Scorer deems to be Errors had instead been outs, giving the benefit of the doubt to the pitcher as the inning is reconstructed.
  22. ashbury
    I was offering a possible reason why a season's worth of offensive stats is often considered meaningful, while it is stated that one needs several seasons' worth of defensive stats to be meaningful. Let me say it another way: in the course of a season a batter may have to make decisions or two or three thousand pitches, many of which are easy and some fraction which are what separate the good batters from the bad. In the course of a season a right fielder may have to make decisions on two or three hundred fly balls, many of which are easy and some fraction of which are what separate the good fielders from the bad.
  23. ashbury
    Actually, your observational bias isn't as bad as that. It's true that a majority of Arcia's HR have not come with the game essentially out of reach. But that's because relatively few of his plate appearances come in such conditions. So the counting stats don't come out as extreme, but the rate stats do: From B-R.com, and not counting tonight's game: Lead within 4: 231 PA, .203 BA, 7 HR, .653 OPS Lead > 4: 37 PA, .351 BA, 4 HR, 1.130 If he could get a full season of PA at the rate of that second line, he'd hit 75 HR or so. Needless to say, the first line isn't a very big sample size, and the second line is woefully small. League-wide, the rates in such pairs of lines tend to be more close to each other, and likely with more chances Arcia's numbers would trend more like that too. But, if one is remembering very good performance from Arcia this season (and to a lesser degree last season) in blowout situations, it's not observational bias per se. Unless your observational bias is that the Twins are hopelessly behind in 50% of their plate appearances. Source: http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=arciaos01&year=2014&t=b
  24. ashbury
    I think they are not quite on the same level, because the granularity of offensive stats actually contains several individual components. Since most plate appearances consist of several pitches, the batter has several opportunities to get himself out on a slider in the dirt or to mash a pitch that catches a little more of the plate than the pitcher intended. Each fielding chance, by contrast, is essentially "make this play, or not". A few cans o' corn for one center fielder versus long runs to the gap for another center fielder take a good deal more time to even out, as a result. If you rated a batter based on a 100-pitch sample, probably you'd have somewhere the same SSS trouble as with a 100-chance sample for a fielder. Give or take.
  25. ashbury
    Just got one. The voice of a local (to me) ambulance chaser roused me to action, you can be assured.
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