Jump to content
Our free agent ranking is up to 100 names, and now you can filter by player position! Click here to check it out! ×
Twins Daily
  • Create Account

ThejacKmp

Provisional Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    2,113

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    4

 Content Type 

Profiles

Minnesota Twins News, Rumors & Analysis

Minnesota Twins Videos

2026 Minnesota Twins Top Prospect Rankings

2022 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Minnesota Twins Trade & Free Agent Rumors

Minnesota Twins Fan Guides & Resources

2023 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

The Minnesota Twins Players Project

2024 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2025 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2026 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Forums

Blogs

Events

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by ThejacKmp

  1. ThejacKmp
    I'm not bad at my job, I do it well most of the time. But if something crazy happens and we have a deadline, I always have another gear that I can hit. I can't live in that gear but I can hit it for awhile. I imagine that's true of most people. It's definitely a thing in sports - how many times have you heard that the NFL playoffs are faster, guys hit harder etc. Or that NBA basketball has wrinkles no regular season game has. There's a reason that young teams sometimes have trouble adjusting. We even see it with the Twins - a criticism of Buxton is that he plays all out too often and is more prone to injury. He's the exception rather than the rule. Just because something doesn't show up in data doesn't mean it's not there. I think Morris's point (self-serving as it may have been as he argued for the HOF) is valid and is proof that this exists. I've also heard other players talk about it. It hits common sense too - when you're up 9-0, you throw a guy a fastball at 3-2 because a walk is no good. You want the ball in play at that point. I was lazy with the we but my point is that TD is a place that is stat-friendly. I've heard many people, yourself included, citing context when talking about stats. I'm just saying that "the collective we at TD" are often citing context in hitting but not in fielding. And we should be. Robbie Grossman's error was pretty meaningless and certainly isn't a resounding reason to have a subpar bat in the lineup.
  2. ThejacKmp
    We say that a home run matters less when it's hit with the Twins down 9-0 than if its tied. The pitcher is just throwing strikes to get the game over, the batter was just swinging for the fences etc. We don't do the same with fielding - we count all errors the same. I've never heard a stat like "runs caused by errors" or "error importance" but they should be. In the same way that pitchers maybe aren't going max effort when you're up 9-0, guys have a different attention to detail in blowouts and close games. Not saying he was lazy, just that the play lacked the urgency of a different situation. Baseball has a long season, I don't mind a guy having another gear for the big moments.
  3. ThejacKmp
    To be fair, while any error is bad, Grossman's was a "dropping the ball after a single and letting runners advance error" with the Twins up 5. He didn't throw a ball away or not get to an easy fly ball. We take context into consideration for hitting stats, we should for fielding as well. Anytime the Twins play a LHP, I want Grossman in the OF and one of Rosario/Kepler sitting. But they do need to get Vargas back up. He's nice to 1B/DH in these games against LHP. No need for Polanco to DH.
  4. ThejacKmp
    When a guy goes on the 10 day DL I don't think that you stop making plans because of it. CF is not a hole, Buxton will get at least til 2019 to develop out there. C is a league-average situation. SS is pretty set too - none of those guys is a star but between the three I think you're okay in the present and can likely cover 2B as well. And Gordon is not really a fingers-crossed kind of prospect - he's a high floor, medium ceiling kind of guy and a top 100 prospect. I get things can go wrong but I'm not at all concerned about him. Vielma's glove is MLB ready but he's more of a utility guy. That's a lot of depth in the middle infield. I also would never make moves based on the TD boards. Man, that would be chaos. If they trade Dozier for a legit starting pitcher, that would be smart. Gotta find the right guy though.
  5. ThejacKmp
    I wonder if the Twins leaned on Duffey too much early in the year. He was one of the few dependable relievers and he was out there multiple innings day in and day out for a team that was exceeding expectations. That's tough for a guy with a limited professional relief profile. I'd like to see Duffey in the pen next year and hope that a better pen uses him less frequently. He has the stuff to be a really nice late inning reliever.
  6. ThejacKmp
    I can never give up on the Thorpedo. I'd like to see the Twins make a minor move for a Neshek type, send Pressley to the minors til September, cut Belisle and bring up some of the AA and AAA arms and see who sticks.
  7. ThejacKmp
    I'm not sure we have a hole at SS. Between Adrianza, Escobar and Polanco the Twins have three perfectly adequate options at SS. Not to mention Vielma and Gordon in the mix for 2018. In fact, you can make an argument that the Twins need to open a spot at 2B in the next 9 months. CF seems like a stretch too. Buxton's defense and pedigree make any CF pickup a strange call. Especially since Kepler and Rosario can each play an adequate back up CF and Granite's issue is not defense. Catcher has also been fine and if you're looking for a solution, Garver in AAA seems like the best one. Dozier needs to be traded for starting pitching. Nothing else.
  8. ThejacKmp
    Yeah, that is the issue with RBI. It's not completely and utterly useless like wins but it's pretty darn close. I think it's when people use it on it's own that it's bad. If you're talking about runs driven in within the context of other stats (OPS, etc.) I think it can be okay. But every time I see it used it's the Lead Argument, You're also right in saying that it's hard to figure out how to do it. Every solo HR is an RBI but wouldn't be calculated as one in a runners-on-base thing. I was reading about a stat called RE24 that I've never heard of before. Might be worth reading about.
  9. ThejacKmp
    The last sentence is true but RBI is not the way to judge it. You want to create a stat that says, "RBI % per opportunity" and I'm down. But RBI is a raw number that means nothing. Stats need context to matter.
  10. ThejacKmp
    Way after the fact but there's a difference between expecting something and being militant about it. They hit the ball hard and had some bad luck with hitting it at guys and having a close play at the plate. I find it hard to blame the Twins for the outcome - and your tone certainly does that.
  11. ThejacKmp
    Aaron Sledgers should be getting this start against the Yankees today. I know Gee has been good but Sledgers is most likely to actually play for the Twins going forward. No idea why he's not getting a shot, everyone else has.
  12. ThejacKmp
    Did anyone know his parents were ballerinas?
  13. ThejacKmp
    Here's why this matters: The Hall. If Santana wins in 2005, he'd be a back-to-back-to-back Cy Young award winner. Every single person with 3+ Cy Youngs has made the Hall or is named Roger Clemens. And three in a row would show a level of dominance that might mitigate the short duration of his awesomeness (though his peak was still longer than Koufax). That's the real issue. Santana is not going to make the Hall but with that Cy Young, he'd have a good chance.
  14. ThejacKmp
    Agreed. Only scenario I'd see is if Vargas comes out of the break raking and the Twins don't feel able to drop a reliever. Then Adrianza potentially could be the guy.
  15. ThejacKmp
    This seems like discussing nothing. Granite is not likely to be on the Twins in the second half. When Mauer comes back from the DL, someone has to go down. Hard to see it not being Granite. I guess it could be Vargas but the Twins seem more likely to keep a switch-hitting DH than a left handed 5th OF. Granite came up for depth for a few games. It's nice he got into a game and had some good memories. But he's back down to Rochester to prove the first half wasn't a fluke. The real question is whether the Twins will drop Vargas or a reliever when they need a 5th starter on 7/19. I'd bet on Vargas unless he goes on a tear this first two weeks. Could be Adrianza too I imagine.
  16. ThejacKmp
    Also, the first couple weeks of the second half are going to tell the Twins a lot. Three at the Astros, three vs the Yankees, a brief respite against the Tiggers and then out west for three against the Dodgers. That's three of the best teams in baseball in your first four series. If they come out of that .500, they're going to be in the Wild Card chase. But it's not crazy to think they'd go 3-9 and make this all a bit more academic.
  17. ThejacKmp
    This. Santana is fine to hold into next year. He's not going to be an ace but this isn't 2006, there aren't a lot of teams you can fleece on a guy being great for a short period. I don't think people are going to value Santana like Sonny Gray. If someone does, I guess you may have to make the trade but I think that's unlikely to happen. I'd be fine to trade Kintzler if you get an amazing offer but again, he's not a crazy shutdown closer so you're not going to get an Andrew Miller or Chapman offer. He's a guy a contender would slot into the 7th inning maybe. More valuable to a contending Twins team at that rate. I like adding maybe one bullpen piece at the deadline and maybe another at the august deadline if need be. Otherwise, let the kids run with this.
  18. ThejacKmp
    I think the point of the article is that three of the other guys talked about at #1 all demanded big money, significantly changing the strategy those teams could use signing other players. That isn't a small sample size thing, that's reality. The author acknowledges the stats include only eight games and its important to note those are thrown as in an aside - "Sure the stats are nice but the dollars and cents show the sense of the Twins draft". Not sure SSS fits.
  19. ThejacKmp
    If you really think that bench player is their future roles, then it's hard to understand how not having them on the bench yesterday was really that big a deal. Guys whose ceiling is bench player generally aren't important enough for teeth gnashing over minor moves. I'd understand this if it was a Miguel Sano type but Garver? Granite? They're not pushing their way to the majors and they should be kept in AAA. Norris's career OPS against was .703 vs. RHB and .808 vs. LHB. You're citing a small sample of 35 innings; I'll take the over 1000 career innings to mean more. For the first 35 innings of this year, Hector Santiago looked like a Cy Young candidate with his 2.78 ERA and .615 OPS against. But I wouldn't have mailed in my ballot quite yet.
  20. ThejacKmp
    Yeah but would you really want Granite and Garver not playing every day on the off chance that Mauer is unable to play and they need a bench bat in a close game? That seems like a pretty big stretch for a two day interruption. I'd rather see people playing every day.
  21. ThejacKmp
    I'm not sure you can blame Molitor - this seems like an organizational thing. if the Angels had done this 7 times before, it should have been brought up in scouting and players should have been ready for it. It sure looked to me like the Twins players were flummoxed by it - seems like a scouting issue to me.
  22. ThejacKmp
    I posted about this above if you want the full thing but it's not poor roster management. The Twins aren't adding someone to the 40-man for something like this so we're stuck looking there. Your position players are: JRM, Garver, Granite, Palka, Vielma, Vargas. Garver and Granite aren't served being on the bench for two days - they need to be playing. JRM = no. Vielma doesn't add much beyond a glove and wouldn't pinch-hit for Castro anyways. He should be playing. Palka is more interesting but as a left-handed bat, he doesn't fit well with the Twins - a RH pinch hitter is much more useful - and he isn't playing particularly well. The interesting one is Vargas. He just got sent down the other day but was eligible to come back up within 10 days because Santiago went to the DL. And he's certainly a nice bat for the bench in late innings. That said, there are reasons not to bring him up. If the Twins send him back down Friday as one would expect, they restart the clock on his ten days. He then wouldn't be available to be on the 25 man to begin the second half. They may also not feel like jerking him up and down - Vargas needs ABs and if they didn't see getting him more than 1 pinch hit opportunity, it may not make sense for two days. He hasn't hit very well of late so some steady time in AAA might make sense. Busenitz is more useful if the Twins do a bullpen game tomorrow and allows them to not lean on guys like Belisle as much. It's an eminently defensible decision. Castro had the left-handed advantage and has some pop so outside of someone like Mauer whose OBP bodes well leading off an inning, I'm not sure pinch-hitting was called for in that spot. And though Buxton was batting right handed, he'd been swinging a hot bat so I'm not sure you'd sub for him either. Regardless, the Twins didn't know Mauer wouldn't be available at all and Busenitz over Vargas makes sense, even if it turns out the Twins might have wanted to do it the other way in hindsight. P.S. My hope is that Matt Belisle will be gone in the next week or so as the Twins go back to 12 pitchers and get Vargas back up.
  23. ThejacKmp
    Yeah, but facts can be used in deceiving ways. There are nine relievers on right now but there's still only 13 pitchers. They're not carrying nine relievers and five starters - with Santiago on the DL they brought an extra reliever up for two days because bringing a starter up early (hoping Jorge!) is pointless. There's no difference between the Twins carrying eight relievers and five starters and nine relievers and four starters. They were no more limited last night than any other night a player has to sit. Platoon argued that the Twins couldn't pinch hit for Castro because they carried nine relievers. That's not true, they couldn't pinch hit because Mauer was day-to-day and they had the same number of players they always do.
  24. ThejacKmp
    That bullpen game thought is an interesting one and fun to ponder. That said, I think you're wrong about it being throwing darts. I think they like Busenitz and saw an opportunity to get him up for a few days. No reason you can't send him back down tomorrow and bring up a starter. He's already used an option so there's no penalty. The other choice would have been to call up a position player for a few days but looking at the 40 man, there's not a lot of great options. Hard to see Palka getting any time with so many LH options for the Twins. Zach Granite should probably be playing instead of riding the bench in the majors (esp with Rosario, Buxton and Kepler all hot right now). Same goes for Garver and Vielma. JRM = no. The one guy you could argue could have been called up is Vargas. Since Santiago went to the DL, I believe they could have pulled him up even though he went down less than 10 days ago but maybe they didn't want to jerk him around for two days since they're down a starter. I also think that the plan may be to get Vargas back up after the break so getting that 10 days going is a plus since he may replace a reliever not going on the DL (hopefully Belisle!). Buesnitz was likely the best pick - whether that's because of a bullpen game or because the Twins just wanted a useful guy on the roster before moving to someone like Jorge for a start.
  25. ThejacKmp
    You know who would make a ton of sense? Danny Valencia. He has mashed left handed pitching his entire career (.863 OPS, 131 OPS+) and can play 3B and OF on occasion so he's not a one-dimensional player. He's likely available on a 1-year $4 million contract and if things go wrong in 2018, he might be a decent trade chip as a RH power bench bat. Looking farther down the road, the Twins should look at signing Mauer to a mini-extension. Sano looks likely to stick at 3B for the next half decade. Kennys Vargas looks more bench bat than every day starter. Lewin Diaz is the next guy but he's raw and only 20 in low A ball. Rooker might play some 1B but he's RH and can also play OF. And even if Rooker or Diaz takes off, the Twins don't have a dominant DH either so there's room for one of those guys and Mauer. I'd approach Joe about a 2 year $12 million extension this offseason. It'd be interesting to see how Twins fans react when Mauer is outperforming his pay - I hope we appreciate the second greatest player in Twins history and a guy who should make the hall of fame.
×
×
  • Create New...