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ThejacKmp

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Everything posted by ThejacKmp

  1. ThejacKmp
    ERA is tied into fielding pretty closely. Tell Twins pitchers that defense is independent of their ERA when Willingham and Sano were in the OF. ERA to me is whether or not the runs that scored were the pitchers fault. When the pitcher makes an egregious mistake, those runs are still their fault in a way they aren't when an outfielder drops a ball.
  2. ThejacKmp
    I think this year Escobar has made sense. The Twins were pretty bare in the upper minors with the left side of the infield and Sano isn't exactly a 155 game player so far in his career. Escobar has been a valuable backup. Next year is just different. Any injury should lead to Nick Gordon getting the playing time, not Escobar. And they even have Vielma in the picture if his glove is good enough to make up for a weak bat (I was sad to see him struggle in AAA because I love his game. He needs more time but may top out as a 25th man type). This year Escobar is more valuable. Next year, I don't think that's true. I think there's likely to be a trade market (nothing major but a piece) for him in the offseason on a tender-and-trade. Adrianza can be a backup defensive player and pinch runner.
  3. ThejacKmp
    My big pet peeve is that pitcher errors still cause unearned runs. If you throw the ball into right field, those runs be earned.
  4. ThejacKmp
    I love the new rule. I think those plays where a catcher and a runner are diving for the plate at the same time are super exciting, way more exciting than turning it into a football play (and can we say that it's good for runners and not just catchers? The runner has no padding and has just as much of a chance to injure themselves). Even diving and not securing Castro shouldn't drop that ball. I think you saw that when he stood up bewildered that the ball wasn't in his glove.
  5. ThejacKmp
    Umm, no. You're right that the bunting for a hit conversations are pretty pointless. I think the bunt conversations get more interesting (and un-noisy? silence?) when sacrifice bunts are taken into account. Molitor has a love for sacrifice bunts and a lot of research shows that they are pretty counterproductive most of the time. They very rarely advance your chances of winning. To me, it's the only thing I hold against Molitor. I don't always love the bullpen management but I assume there are factors at play that are beyond my level of insider knowledge (e.g. some guy is sore, there's some advanced stat, it's important to manage personalities). Ditto for the lineup - he sometimes bats catchers too high but I like the alternating R and L and that he moves guys up and down based on the handedness of the pitcher. Dozier leading off is weird but if it works for the guys, it works for the guys. But the bunting. My god, the bunting. Sacrifice bunts are usually a waste of an out, and almost always when the goal is to get the guy to 2B and not to 3B. Ugh.
  6. ThejacKmp
    Absolutely. I'd go further and say that even if he doesn't keep it up, they should bring him back. He doesn't project to cost much ($4-5 million) and the Twins saw this year how important starting pitching depth is. At that cost, he's a low-risk relatively-high-reward starter who can be flipped if young guys start pushing their way up to the majors.
  7. ThejacKmp
    Agreed on everything above this but not this. By most accounts, he's kind of a pain. He's difficult for coaches to work with and has rubbed teammates the wrong way in the past. Also, just look at the guy. He looks like someone you wouldn't really like (I know that's terrible, but we all make judgments like that.)
  8. ThejacKmp
    Yeah to clarify, I'm talking about sacrifice bunts, not bunts for a base hit. Love bunting for a base hit, I think more players should develop this as a weapon. Buxton can sac bunt because that's still bunting for a hit.
  9. ThejacKmp
    I get that it isn't an error on that Castro drop at the plate but it should have been an easy out. Can't get the ball in your glove and not hold onto it on a swipe tag. Gibson really only had one earned run this outing.
  10. ThejacKmp
    Escobar has been fine this year but if its him or Adrianza next year, it should absolutely be Adrianza. The Twins aren't going to need a utility guy who can fill in for long periods of time because guys like Nick Gordon will be in the upper minors. If they lose a Sano/Polanco/Dozier for a few weeks, they'll have better options in AAA. Adrianza is a better glove and is not cringe-worthy in the outfield. He's a better baserunner and a true late inning defensive sub. His bat has been good this year but that's a short sample and who knows if it will stay. But he's better at everything else than Escobar and that's what matters. Plus Adriana will be like $4 million cheaper. Easy call.
  11. ThejacKmp
    I have no problems with Molitor other than the bunting but Jesus Christ, the bunting. It's so stupid and regimented. I'm not against bunting altogether but it should be used incredibly sparingly. Tie game, late innings, runner on 2B with no outs, weak hitter at plate. And if the pitcher goes 2-0 trying to avoid the bunt, we're swinging away again. Also, Buxton can bunt whenever he pleases. But enough with the bunting.
  12. ThejacKmp
    Snowpiercer. Everyone should go see that movie. So good.
  13. ThejacKmp
    The Twins still have a gaping hole at DH. Any move of Sano would potentially be to DH and any free agent signing could be there too. And I don’t see Sano’s move happening – the Twins have no one coming up the farm system at 3B and Sano is so much more valuable playing 3B. I don’t see him moving until his late 20s at the earliest. I've heard a lot about Santana here but I don't see it. Most of the noise seems to be centered on Falvey bringing in guys he had in Cleveland. I think that’s pretty simple thinking – they’re going to look at Santana and the market, not blindly go after a guy they like. Gimenez was a Falvey guy but he also made sense given the market and the options at backup C. The Twins won’t overpay. The 1B/DH market is interesting– Santana, Matt Holiday, Carlos Beltran, Logan Morrison, Lucas Duda, Mitch Moreland and Hosmer are the names that jump out. Beltran has indicated that he would retire but who knows if that’s true. Hosmer is going to get paid somewhere. After that, Santana seems the most likely to command a big salary somewhere. I’d see him getting 4 years and upwards of $50 million. I just don’t see the Twins being that team, especially since a lot of contenders will be looking to fill holes – HOU with Beltran, NYY with Holiday, TEX with Moreland and CLE with Santana. Those are teams that are likely to see Santana as a missing piece and are bigger markets (except the Cleve of course). I’d be surprised if the Twins weren’t more in the market for some of the guys who are available on short term deals. They’ll be helped that they seem like a contender and could be a good spot for a guy interested in playoff potential. Issue there is that Moreland, Duda and Morrison all hit lefty and thus aren’t a good match.
  14. ThejacKmp
    Yeah, the only other place I could see him playing would be in Tampa since it's a few hours from his place in FL. But assuming the Twins want him (and it seems likely they will since the cupboard is bare for 1B/DH types), I'd imagine the interest is mutual. Two years $16 million?
  15. ThejacKmp
    And he did it in Chattanooga instead of Elizabethtown
  16. ThejacKmp
    I just want to sweep the Royals. I hate playing them, we always lose narrowly.
  17. ThejacKmp
    It'll be interesting to see what the Twins do with Dozier this offseason. He's going to be coming off of a 2nd 30+ HR season and is on a good deal. I could see them extending him (though that's tough with so many middle infielders coming up), I could see them trading him and I could see them just keeping him. Wouldn't have thought that last one was a possibility before the season but not sure anyone else on the team is ready to step up and assume that role.
  18. ThejacKmp
    That post was talking about hot streaks, about carrying the team. The author indicated that Escobar and Rosario had carried the team by going streaking so now it was time for Mauer or Kepler. That's why I spoke of the recent stretch by Mauer and compared it to the recent stretch of Escobar.
  19. ThejacKmp
    The post I responded to said, "We have had Rosario and Escobar give the team a needed jolt this season. Kepler or Mauer need to take their turn and carry the team for a while." That's who.
  20. ThejacKmp
    To wit: Escobar's last 20 games give a .244/.282/.513/.795. Those are relatively nice but they're Mauer's numbers for the year. We get more excited about Escobar being normal Mauer than Mauer being insanely good.
  21. ThejacKmp
    Joe Mauer in his last 25 games: .420/.458/.570/1.028. 12 extra base hits. He's on a 14 game hitting streak with 5 multiple hit games. During that streak he's hitting .418/.458/.600/1.058 with nine XBH. He's already carried this team. Perhaps it speaks more to our concept of Joe that his achievements in the past month are not lauded as much as Buxton/Polanco or even Escobar. To wit: Escobar's last 20 games give a .244/.282/.513/.795. Those are relatively nice but they're Mauer's numbers for the year. We get more excited about Escobar being normal Mauer than Mauer being insanely good.
  22. ThejacKmp
    His number will absolutely be retired in the first season after he calls it quits. It's an automatic. He's in the upper echelons of Twindom.
  23. ThejacKmp
    The only player you can conclusively say is better than Joe in Twins history is Killebrew. 21 seasons, 559 HR, 143 OPS+, six top-5 MVP finishes. After that, your contenders are Carew, Oliva, Puckett and Paul Sorrento. Carew = 12 seasons, 137 OPS+, six batting titles Oliva = 15 seasons, 131 OPS+ Puckett = 12 season, 124 OPS+, 6 GG, postseason magic Mauer = 14 seasons, 126 OPS+, MVP, 3 GG, 3 batting titles Those are all pretty close, especially when you take position into account. Puckett was a CF and thus more valuable than Oliva in RF and Carew at 2B/1B but much less valuable than Mauer at C. I personally go Killebrew, Carew, Mauer, Puckett, Oliva but can see almost any order of the last four. And I think Mauer can catch Carew on my list with a few more good years at the tail end of his career. (And I love Carew: my favorite is that he stole home seven times in 1969. I get teams didn't scout or have video back then but seven times???)
  24. ThejacKmp
    Joe Mauer will make the Hall of Fame. He's going to take a decade but I think his career is going to look very different down the road. Teams aren't going to keep the Posadas at catcher because they're going to value catcher defense. Joe's decade of dominance defensively and offensively is going to look that much better in an era with lighter hitting catchers. I also think he'll be looked at favorably in a sabremetrics era that values OBP more than SLG. And if he can win a Gold Glove this year, GG at two positions is another feather in his cap. This year already gives a counterargument to "he fell off a cliff when he stopped catching". He used to be on a first ballot trajectory and that likely isn't coming back. But he's still going to make it in on the back side.
  25. ThejacKmp
    I'm with Seth that people are being a bit dramatic. They didn't blow it. Blowing it is when you cough up a lead. Blowing it would be bases loaded no one out and not getting the tying run in. They had guys on the corners and Rosario hit a ball relatively hard that just happened to be right at a guy. Things happen, they didn't blow it.
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