Hans Birkeland

Image courtesy of © Bruce Kluckhohn-Imagn Images Box Score: Starting Pitcher: José Ureña: 3 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 4 BB, 1 K (73 Pitches, 36 Strikes, 49.3%) Home Runs: Ryan Fitzgerald (1), Luke Keaschall (2) Top 3 WPA: Michael Tonkin (.619), Keaschall (.429), Pierson Ohl (.224) Win Probability Chart (Via FanGraphs): Well, the team has been showing positive flashes lately, and it's definitely due to my own prognosis. Or, maybe it's just Luke Keaschall, who had (ahem) a pretty decent game. The Twins finished up the series against Kansas City today, going for a second straight series win against a team ahead of them in the AL Central standings. I was at Friday's game and witnessed more key RBI hits than occurred in all of 2024. Alas, yesterday, Noah Cameron shut them down, which was a reminder that they are still going to struggle against lefties in the absences of Byron Buxton, Carlos Correa, Willi Castro and Harrison Bader. It looked like they might be facing a huge early deficit with José Ureña on the mound. He allowed a leadoff walk to Mike Yastrzemski, followed by a sharp single to Maikel García. Fortunately, Vinnie Pasquantino then scorched a ball to Kody Clemens at first, who recorded the out and stepped on first for a crushing double play. Especially crushing because a walk and a single would follow. All in all, just the one run would score. The second inning looked even bleaker for the Twins and Ureña, who walked the first two hitters he saw. Kyle Isbel then bunted the runners over, bringing up the top of the lineup. Yastrzemski hit a sharp line drive... right to Luke Keaschall at second base. Ureña then fooled García with a weird, screwball-type pitch to set him down looking and end the inning. The Royals countered with a much more impressive arm, Ryan Bergert, whom they acquired from the Padres by trading away one of the heirs apparent to Salvador Perez, Freddy Fermin. Bergert has a couple of nice pitches, but stalled in the high minors before the Padres gave him a look in a swing role. He excelled in that capacity, with a 2.78 ERA over 35 innings, and shut down Boston over 5 2/3 innings in his Royals debut, allowing just two hits and two runs. Bergert made quick work of the Twins in the first two innings, showcasing an impressive changeup-slider combo, but committed the cardinal sin of walking Mickey Gasper to begin the third. That brought up Ryan Fitzgerald, still looking for his first big-league hit, and he capitalized, crushing a cement-mixer slider into the flower beds in right field for a two-run home run and giving the Twins the lead. Ureña was done after three innings, throwing a whopping 73 pitches and walking four batters. Any gambler knows to quit while you're ahead, and Ureña leaving with a lead was nothing short of a miracle. Kody Funderburk threw a scoreless fourth inning and gave way to Pierson Ohl in the fifth, who pitched 2 2/3 uneventful, scoreless innings of his own. It should be noted that the Royals were sitting Bobby Witt Jr., and without him, this offense is just a wannabe Whitey Herzog team: fast, contact-oriented, lousy. Meanwhile, Bergert was racking up strikeouts (eight in total) with exceptional command and efficiency. He had Twins hitters playing defense, working the edges with his fastball and then mixing in the changeup and slider to great effect. Keaschall and Jeffers, two of the better two-strike hitters on the team, were both fooled by changeups right down the middle for strikeouts. He would exit after 5 2/3 innings, and looks like a steal for Kansas City—without factoring in the other pitcher the Royals got in the Fermin deal, Stephen Kolek, who also figures to contribute at the back half of the rotation in the near future. Now the Twins got to a scenario we were all worried about: a slim lead in the late innings. Ohl began the seventh inning with two quick outs, and was relieved by Cole Sands. García singled, though, and Pasquantino then launched a two-strike curveball to flip the game. The Twins had an opportunity to answer back in the eighth. With one out, Austin Martin hit a sinking liner that scooted under the glove of left fielder John Rave and ended up as a triple. Kody Clemens hit a pop-up, not quite deep enough to score Martin, and things looked bleak. Fortunately, Jeffers was up next, and the hot-hitting catcher roped a single to left to tie the game against Royals relief ace Lucas Erceg. The ninth began innocently enough, with Justin Topa retiring Isbel and Yastrzemski on called strikes. The relentlessly troublesome García doubled, however, and Pasquantino was put on intentionally. Certainly, Perez was ready to punish them for such a decision—but he was hit by a pitch, bringing up Adam Frazier, who already had collected four hits to that point. Frazier was all over the next Topa sweeper, but lined out to deep right field. Crisis: averted. The Twins went down in six pitches in their half of the ninth, so it would be an extra-inning affair. The Twins called on Michael Tonkin, and he was effective, inducing a groundout that didn't advance the runner from Jonathan India, striking out Rave and working around a walk to pinch-hitter Nick Loftin by getting Isbel to pop out to end the inning. Gasper began the home 10th by drawing a 3-0 count. He tried to bunt on each of the next three pitches, and was unsuccessful each time. The Twins would also go scoreless, pushing the contest to 11 frames. That's fine, because Tonkin was made for extra innings, apparently. He would strike out Perez to end the top half of that inning scoreless, as well. He's been shelved most of the year by injuries, but when right, he's a rubber-armed multi-use reliever. In a sentence I didn't think I would ever utter, number two hitter Kody Clemens was walked to bring up number three hitter Ryan Jeffers to begin the bottom of the 11th. It started well, as Jeffers went ahead 3-0. Eventually, Jeffers would fly out, but Manfred Man Martin did not tag immediately, and was thrown out trying to advance to third. Things weren't looking good, with Martin walking off the field even though the Twins (unsuccessfully) challenged the call. Never fear; Luke Keaschall hits fourth now. He launched a Carlos Estévez fastball over the big wall in right-center field for a walk-off home run. This team has juice, if nothing else, and there truly may be nothing else. Stray Observations: -This was Mickey Gasper's first game starting behind the plate, and the first time anyone besides Ryan Jeffers or Christian Vázquez has started there since 2022. Needless to say, Gasper does not possess much of a throwing arm, allowing two early steals. He didn't miss any balls and his framing looked decent, however. -In the eighth, following Jeffers's tying hit, Royce Lewis (out of the lineup to begin the day) was in the on-deck circle. However, the batter at the time, Keaschall, popped out to end the inning. The next inning, Edouard Julien got the at-bat instead. I suppose it makes sense, as you would prefer Julien to begin an inning and Lewis to finish one, but with Julien struggling, it was eyebrow-raising, especially once Lewis was used as a pinch-runner for Brooks Lee in the 10th. Postgame Interviews: Coming soon What’s Next: Zebby Matthews (3-3, 5.17 ERA) takes on Will Warren (6-5, 4.44 ERA) as the Twins take their yearly sojourn to Yankee Stadium. The Yankees have had some of the same issues as the Twins these past few years (put pressure on the other team? Nah, look how optimized my swing is), but thanks to Aaron Judge in the regular season and Giancarlo Stanton in the playoffs, their results have looked a bit better. Bullpen Usage Chart: WED THU FRI SAT SUN TOT Ohl 61 0 0 0 36 97 Tonkin 0 0 0 18 38 56 Hatch 54 0 0 0 0 54 Kriske 14 0 17 0 17 48 Adams 0 0 43 0 0 43 Topa 0 0 0 15 20 35 Ramírez 0 0 0 21 0 21 Funderburk 12 0 0 0 9 21 Sands 0 0 9 0 9 18 View full article

Image courtesy of © Ken Blaze-Imagn Images My first reaction to last Thursday was denial. Surely there were other prospects thrown into the Griffin Jax and Brock Stewart trades. Then came anger—because there weren’t. I even wrote a screed blasting the whole thing as a conspiracy to sell the team to a private equity conglomerate of ghouls who’d move the franchise to Nashville. Thankfully, the good editors at Twins Daily politely declined to publish it. Then came coping: “If Pablo López comes back and Connor Prielipp shoves out of the bullpen, we’re really only seven games back of the Wild Card…” Nope. That was bargaining. Any series in Cleveland is depressing, but this one gave me some clarity—or at least enough to revisit my own theory: this team has been maddeningly inconsistent because it’s full of J.D. Drews. Drew was a tinkerer. Talented, but not exactly a spark plug. That, to me, has been the Twins' hitting identity for a while now. We didn’t expect this offense to be dominant coming into the year—not even with Byron Buxton, Carlos Correa, Matt Wallner, Royce Lewis, Trevor Larnach, Willi Castro, Ryan Jeffers, and more waiting in the wings. We figured that if the team succeeded, it’d be on the back of the pitching staff. Other fanbases might look at that same group and see a potentially strong lineup. We knew better. We knew the lineup would be less than the sum of its parts—and I’d argue that’s been a defining feature of the Correa era. I’m not saying the team will be better now that he’s gone, but I do think the offense might be. Correa was never the type to just roll out of bed and go 3-for-4. He needed the right conditions: good health, a hitting coach he vibed with, a long ramp-up period, warm weather, and some BABIP luck. Like J.D. Drew, he’d be great on a team where he wasn’t the guy. But as the centerpiece? It doesn’t work. And you don’t really want younger players modeling themselves after that. How many times have we heard guys like Brooks Lee, Wallner, and Jeffers say their swing “sucks,” or that they’re making some minor tweak, or trying a different bat? That’s the culture Correa brought in, intentionally or not. During his peak in Houston, Correa wasn’t the alpha. The tone-setters were José Altuve and Yuli Gurriel—guys who saw the ball, hit the ball, and adjusted on the fly. Correa complemented that. After pitchers were worn down by Altuve and Gurriel slapping hits on balls a foot outside the zone, Correa would punish the mistake. He often did his best work lower in the lineup. It’s like a golfer who plays "golf swing" instead of playing golf. A team can survive having one or two of those guys. Some teams have so many resources that they can field a whole lineup of swing technicians and still win—like the Yankees. But even they caught backlash in 2024 for leaning too hard into metrics, swing mechanics, and defensive WAR, instead of just… playing the game. They were even exposed in a minor scandal for rewarding minor leaguers based on batted-ball data instead of actual results. That’s not inherently a bad thing. If you have a lineup full of guys who smash the ball, great. I get that. There’s just a spectrum here. On one end, you’ve got the Yankees and Correa. On the other, you’ve got guys like Doug Mientkiewicz preaching baseball instincts. You can’t skew too far in either direction. Can we at least agree on that? Too many Twins hitters are playing against themselves, focused on process while smart teams are focused on results. Anecdotally, I think Austin Martin and José Miranda have been hurt by this philosophy. Miranda in particular was Correa’s protégé. Their natural strengths—reacting and putting the ball in play—got pushed aside in favor of swing optimization and decision trees. Which is why I’m okay with Correa leaving. It already feels like the hitters are freed up. Martin got caught stealing third the other night, and yeah—it looked bad. But the team was ahead, and he was trying to force the issue. (Maybe just don’t run on Jake Rogers next time.) On Sunday, Kody Clemens dropped down a bunt to drive in the winning run. Not because bunting is part of his offensive profile or the numbers said to do it, but because he recognized the moment. That’s playing the game. And wouldn’t you know it—the team’s leader again is Byron Buxton, the ultimate see-ball-hit-ball guy. I like the idea of Emmanuel Rodríguez and Walker Jenkins coming up and learning from him. If they need to make technical tweaks, that’s what the coaches are for. I’m not saying the Twins are going to win this year or next. And I’m not naïve enough to think the technocratic Correa philosophy will vanish overnight. Correa is a proven winner, a champion, and he made some critical high-IQ plays that helped break the team’s playoff curse. But his presence shaped the team’s approach in a way that didn’t work for everyone—especially for younger players like Miranda and Lee. Without him, those guys now have the option to go back to being who they were. Whether that’s a hair-on-fire type like Luke Keaschall, or a passive mistake-hitter like Rodríguez. Everything now hinges on the next ownership group. The roster still has talent, and it’s suddenly cheap. We could get bought by Scrooge Capital, trade away Joe Ryan and López, and become the Cayman Island Twins. Or we could get an owner who invests—say, $10 million in bullpen help, signs a real first baseman, and locks up a couple of core guys. If we get that owner—or even just get the payroll to $120 million—I’ll be jazzed about next year. The curse is still broken. The Pohlads are gone. Sign me up. View full article

Image courtesy of Ken Blaze-Imagn Images Box Score Starting Pitcher: Jose Urena: 4 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 3 K (69 Pitches, 62.3%) Home Runs: None Top 3 WPA: Matt Wallner (.146), Kody Funderburk (.137), Trevor Larnach (.130) Win Probability Chart (Via Fangraphs): A new era of Twins baseball has begun, and it has looked pretty similar so far, with two one-run losses to the Guardians on Friday and Saturday. They've been a more interesting watch, however. In my mind, frisky baseball is a lot more watchable than the lawyer ball that represented the Carlos Correa era in Minnesota. With the bullpen arms they have now, I doubt we'll see a lot of winning, but it will hopefully be more fun. The Guardians are the kings of pesky small ball, so we may have to give the Twins (players, not owners) some grace while they acclimate to putting some actual pressure on an opposing pitcher. Today began promisingly, with Austin Martin getting a leadoff single, Ryan Jeffers dropping in a blooper, and Matt Wallner lining a single up the middle to score Martin. Royce Lewis brought in third baseman Jose Ramirez by showing bunt and then lined a double over his head for the game's second run. Baby steps. Joey Cantillo was pitching for Cleveland, and after a mound visit following Lewis' double, started emphasizing his curveball and struck out Kody Clemens and Brooks Lee. That felt familiar, but Trevor Larnach then pulverized a hanging curveball into the gap in right center field to score two more runs. Jose Urena started for the Twins, and if you aren't familiar with his work, you clearly have no appreciation for the 2017-2018 Miami Marlins, where Urena started 59 games with a 3.90 ERA. But his strikeout percentage peaked at 18.3% during that time and hasn't reached that level since. This despite a a fastball that can reach the upper 90's. I remember the Twins facing Urena when he was with the White Sox in 2023 and thinking it must feel rotten to have to watch Urena pitch for your team. Well karma giveth and taketh away, and Urena got absolutely rocked the first few pitches in a Twins uniform. Steven Kwan barreled up a fastball that would have easily left the yard were the wind not blowing in at Progressive Field. Daniel Schneeman laced a single and Jose Ramirez jumped all over a Urena fastball and launched it 406 feet through the wind to cut the lead in half. Urena settled down from there and actually showed some positive signs as his outing went along. Meanwhile Cantillo focused on his changeup and curveball while the Twins swung in vain hoping for his very hittable fastball. He has reverse splits and proved why, as he allowed five hits and two walks to the contingent of lefties the Twins trotted out in Wallner, Larnach and Clemens. He would strike out nine over five and two thirds innings. Urena was done after four innings and 69 pitches, and kept the Twins ahead by inducing some weak contact featuring a ton of sliders and sinkers. As auspicious as the start to his day was, he gave Baldelli what he needed and may have bought himself another week or two on the 40-man roster. The teams traded zeros, with both lineups taking an aggressive approach early in the count. It wasn't a winning strategy on either side, however. After twelve straight scoreless half innings, Wallner reached out and poked a triple to right center field off of Jakob Junis to begin the eighth, with the ball deflecting off of center fielder Angel Martinez's glove. Lewis struck out, but Clemens dropped a bunt up the first base line that drew a throw home far too late to retire pinch runner DaShawn Keirsey Jr. as the Twins scored their first insurance run in Cleveland since 2019. Cole Sands pitched a scoreless eighth inning, and Michael Tonkin was brought in to protect the 5-2 lead. It didn't go that well. .216 hitter Nolan Jones drew a walk and rookie CJ Kayfus hit his first career hit, just over the outstretched glove of Alan Roden in right field. Bryan Rocchio singled to left and all of a sudden it was a 5-4 game. Tonkin retired Steven Kwan and was then relieved in favor of the legendary Erasmo Ramirez. He retired Schneeman and Ramirez on pop ups like it was nothing. Stray Observations: The back of the Twins bullpen has obviously been eviscerated. However, last year at this time Cole Sands was an ascendant eighth inning guy, while Justin Topa was acquired from Seattle to pitch late in games as he did successfully in 2023. Michael Tonkin quietly has his best season in 2024, throwing 79 1/3 innings with 85 strikeouts. For a team that just traded away its five best relievers that could look a lot worse. Yeah, I'm coping. Wallner has shown some life lately, going 7-21 over his past seven games with three homers, a triple and five walks. What’s Next: The Twins travel to Detroit to take on the division-leading Tigers. Simeon Woods Richardson (5-4, 4.24 ERA) was set to oppose Casey Mize (9-4, 3.43 ERA) to start the three game series. However, SWR has a stomach issue and Monday's starter is TBD. Mize is a former number one overall pick and is having his first real run of sustainable success following some initial struggles and Tommy John surgery that knocked out his 2022 and 2023 seasons. He has been terrible lately though, with a 6.32 ERA over his past four outings, and lasting only an inning and a third his last time out against Arizona. Postgame Interviews: Coming soon Bullpen Usage Chart: WED THU FRI SAT SUN TOT Ureña 0 0 0 0 69 69 Sands 13 0 20 0 21 54 Ohl 0 0 0 52 0 52 Topa 22 0 13 0 15 50 Funderburk 0 0 11 0 35 46 Davis 31 0 0 0 0 31 Tonkin 0 0 11 0 14 25 Ramírez 0 0 0 0 9 9 Adams 0 0 0 0 0 0 View full article

Image courtesy of © Nick Wosika-Imagn Images Box Score: Starting (Bulk) Pitcher: Travis Adams: 3 2/3 IP, 5 H, 5 ER, 2 BB, 3 K (83 Pitches, 48 Strikes, 57.8%) Home Runs: Matt Wallner (12) Bottom 3 WPA: Travis Adams (-.360), Willi Castro (-.099), Royce Lewis (-.077) Win Probability Chart (Via Fangraphs): You could have argued that there were three instances of the Twins season effectively ending since the All-Star break: Losing two of three to the worst team in baseball, the Rockies. Griffin Jax walking pinch-runner extraordinaire Esteury Ruiz to punt away what would have been a revitalizing series win in LA against the Dodgers. Saturday night, with their ace on the mound against a rebuilding but feisty Nationals team, Brooks Lee misses a pop-up and then makes an error on the relay, leading to three back-breaking runs. I turned the game off at that point, meaning I got to miss the part where Byron Buxton left with an injury. You can't go into a rebuild phase with this roster—not with the talent it still possesses and with Emmanuel Rodriguez, Walker Jenkins and Luke Keaschall all nearly ready to contribute. If rebuilding is your contention, you may be confusing this sport with one where that is far more beneficial. What you do is trade away the expiring contracts and see what the young guys have over the next two months. In 2017, that led to a playoff berth. This year, it probably won't, but it would be nice to have some positive juice when a theoretical new ownership group comes in. Sunday was a bullpen game, because David Festa was placed on the IL with renewed shoulder soreness. The first pitch Cole Sands threw was crushed by CJ Abrams over the high wall in right-center. Sands settled down after that, and then Trevor Larnach led off the Twins half with a single against Minnesota native Jake Irvin—which was immediately erased by an easy double-play grounder off the bat of Willi Castro. Irvin has settled into being a decent back-end starter for the Nats. Nothing stands out metrically about him except some elite extension from his 6-foot-6 frame, but he pitched 187 2/3 solid innings last year and generally throws strikes. He threw two fastball strikes to fellow Minnesota Matt Wallner in the second, and Wallner made him pay with a 452-foot blast to tie the game. Abrams manufactured another run for the Nats in the third, though. He singled past Kody Clemens at first, stole second, and then stole third and scored on a sacrifice fly from Luis García Jr. Pretty impressive for the third-most productive piece of the Juan Soto trade thus far, who also has an All-Star appearance on his resume. The Twins would return the favor, thanks to Harrison Bader. The center fielder singled up the middle and was running when Christian Vázquez grounded to shortstop. Bader hesitated a bit to make sure shortstop Paul DeJong wasn't paying attention, then kept on running and made third easily. He would then score on a sacrifice fly from Larnach. Washington quickly reclaimed the lead against Travis Adams in the fourth. Daylen Lile split the gap in right-center field with a rocket line drive (105 MPH), and yet another sacrifice fly—this time from DeJong—scored the Nats' third run. Adams would continue to struggle in the fifth. He hit Abrams to lead off the inning, walked the struggling James Wood, and gave up a blooper to García. Josh Bell then smoked a single through the left side. Adams retired Nathaniel Lowe on a ground ball to Brooks Lee, who made the decision to come home rather than take the sure double play at second. The broadcast was split on the decision, but Alex Call then grounded a ball off the pitcher's mound that fooled Lee, scoring two more runs. With a pitcher who cannot induce swing-and-miss to save his life (like Adams), I think the better move is to get as many outs as possible, even if it costs a run. A sacrifice fly would then score Lowe to make it 7-2 Nationals. The rest of the game was a slow death, with Irvin completing seven innings of two-run ball, despite recording only two strikeouts. The Twins never really threatened. Stray Observations: -Lee has the hands, arm and instincts to be a really good fielder, including making an incredible jump throw to retire Nats catcher Riley Adams in the eighth. But he rarely makes the right decision, and seems to panic in big moments, struggling to get the ball out of his glove, dropping the ball on the transfer, and generally just being a heart attack out there. He's basically a rookie. If we can be patient with Rob Dillingham, we can be patient with Lee, but he sure makes it hard. -You try and squint to see what Adams could offer a team if everything broke right for him. Like, if the Rays picked him up, what would they focus on as far as pitch tweaks and sequencing? I kind of like his cutter, I guess. What's Next: The Twins begin a three-game series against the Red Sox at Target Field Monday night. Simeon Woods Richardson (5-4, 4.14 ERA) takes on Richard Fitts (1-4, 4.86 ERA), as the Twins look to showcase their tradable players one last time with the deadline looming. Fitts has not been overly impressive and is a righty, so maybe the Twins could offer some resistance. Woods Richardson has been good since his most recent call-up, as he looks to retain his rotation spot once Pablo López and Bailey Ober return from injury. Postgame Interviews: Bullpen Usage Chart: WED THU FRI SAT SUN TOT Adams 0 0 0 0 83 83 Coulombe 16 0 11 0 20 47 Jax 20 0 25 0 0 45 Funderburk 0 0 0 39 0 39 Topa 0 0 0 27 0 27 Sands 0 0 0 0 27 27 Varland 15 0 0 0 11 26 Durán 0 0 6 0 17 23 Stewart 0 0 0 0 9 9 View full article

Image courtesy of © Isaiah J. Downing-Imagn Images Box Score: Starting Pitcher: Joe Ryan: 7 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 11 K (88 Pitches, 67 Strikes, 76.1%) Home Runs: Matt Wallner (11), Royce Lewis 2 (4), Harrison Bader (12) Top 3 WPA: Ryan (.307), Kody Clemens (.116), Bader (.086) Win Probability Chart (Via FanGraphs): The roller coaster hit a little dip these past few days. After riding some positive momentum into the All-Star break that included some key series wins against good teams and Byron Buxton going bananas, the Twins headed to Coors Field to play a Rockies team that made the 2024 White Sox look competitive—and lost the first two games. Then, Royce Lewis threw some barbs at the team for benching him, in a single game, during a season in which his OPS starts with a '5'. On the plus side, these are still the Rockies, and All-Star Joe Ryan was starting for Minnesota. Ryan looked sharp and was remarkably efficient, requiring just 44 pitches to complete the first four innings of his outing, and 88 pitches overall in seven innings. He left one ill-advised sinker up to the hot-hitting Mickey Moniak in the third, but was otherwise in total command, locating his fastball and mixing in his splitter and slider just enough to keep Rockies hitters honest. The Twins were tasked with facing Germán Márquez, and fortunately, this isn’t 2018, which was the last time he had an above-average strikeout rate. Márquez walked two in loading the bases in the first inning, but Matt Wallner struck out on three pitches in non-competitive fashion to end the inning. A nifty hit-and-run with Harrison Bader and Christian Vázquez led to another scoring chance in the second, but Trevor Larnach grounded into a double play to end yet another threat. They would break through in the third. Willi Castro drew a leadoff walk, Kody Clemens tripled and although Clemens was tagged out on the contact play in the next at-bat, Wallner atoned for his earlier failure by launching a two-run home run that seemed to still be rising as it soared into the first row in right field (112 MPH). Lewis would also atone for his vent sesh with Dan Hayes by hitting a towering 451-foot home run in the fourth against lefty reliever Ryan Rolison. Harrison Bader would add a solo shot of his own an inning later, a rare opposite-field homer for the center fielder. Meanwhile, Ryan was on cruise control, as the historically bad Rockies offense could not make contact against his fastball. Ryan induced 12 swings and misses on his fastball, and it felt like more, as he seemed to ditch the concept of waste pitches. That was validated in the seventh, as Ryan tried to sneak a two-strike curveball past the Rockies' most established hitter, Ryan McMahon, and it got blasted for a double. He would recover with a strikeout and weak pop-up to finish off his day. Lewis would add his second homer in the eighth inning, off a hanging changeup from Jimmy Herget. Stray Observations: Lewis has a knack for giving some of the most disturbing quotes to the media. Talking about a cascading effect of all his injuries with Hayes, saying he doesn't slump, that he doesn't want to play second base, and talking about ignoring game plans in favor of doing his own improv at the plate have all left us with weird tastes in our mouths. Maybe this multi-home run game will get him to talk less, for his own benefit. Willi Castro had an interesting game, cutting down a runner at second trying to stretch a single into a double, then hitting a long fly ball in the ninth that looked like it might carry over the fence. He would get a triple instead, and then score on the throw to third for a Little League homer. What’s Next: David Festa (3-3, 5.25 ERA) faces Shohei Ohtani (0-0, 1.00 ERA) of the Dodgers as the Twins face a slight shift in competition. Ohtani is amazing, but has only pitched in short stints so far this year returning from Tommy John surgery. Last time out was a three-inning outing, his longest of the year. Festa has been mostly good of late, since he got his head knocked in against Milwaukee in June. Postgame Interviews: Coming soon Bullpen Usage Chart: WED THU FRI SAT SUN TOT Topa 0 0 17 16 0 33 Sands 0 0 22 0 0 22 Misiewicz 0 0 0 21 0 21 Durán 0 0 0 0 16 16 Coulombe 0 0 0 12 0 12 Stewart 0 0 0 9 0 9 Jax 0 0 0 0 8 8 Varland 0 0 0 0 0 0 View full article

Image courtesy of © Neville E. Guard-Imagn Images The Twins are in a predicament to end all predicaments. The trade deadline looms just 13 days away, and the team is under .500, but just barely. To add more fuel to the gas fire of uncertainty regarding the team’s direction, they appear to be getting closer to a sale to a new ownership group. They have also been playing better lately, taking series from the Rays, Cubs and Pirates in succession heading into the break. They are also getting healthier, though that is always a jinx-ridden statement. Pablo López, Bailey Ober, Luke Keaschall and Zebby Matthews being available could certainly change how the front office views the team’s chances. Matthews looks likely to re-join the club this weekend, with Keaschall and Ober beginning rehab assignments simultaneously in St. Paul. However, the trade value of Joe Ryan has never been higher, and he could fetch a 2020 Mike Clevinger-type haul (more on that later). The team faced a similar dilemma in 2017, the first year of the Derek Falvey-Thad Levine regime. The core of Miguel Sanó, Byron Buxton, Jorge Polanco, Eddie Rosario, Max Kepler and José Berríos were together and keeping their collective heads above water. On July 19, their playoff odds had “surged” to 23.4% (per Baseball Prospectus) after winning a home series against the Yankees. The upside was palpable, and with veterans Brian Dozier, Joe Mauer, Ervin Santana and Robbie Grossman all performing well, the front office felt the need to acquire a starter. Maybe someone who could give quality innings in a playoff series, and who perhaps would come cheaply, given injury concerns. Enter Jaime García. García was a few years removed from his peak, when he posted a 161 ERA+ for the Cardinals in 2015 across 20 starts. That came with the lowest strikeout rate of his career, so the sustainability of that performance was questionable. Pitching for the Braves in 2017, his ERA+ was a much more middling 101, but that was enough for the Twins to take a swing on the lefty. Famously, Garcia made one start for the Twins, and the team won! But that came amidst a 2-6 stretch heading into the trade deadline, and García was flipped—as well as the team’s de facto closer, Brandon Kintzler. The team’s playoff odds had decreased to 7%. From there, the team’s offense surged and the pitching bent but didn’t break. That is, until the Wild Card game at Yankee Stadium. Coming out of the All-Star break this year, the Twins have an 8.8% chance to make the playoffs according to Baseball-Reference. However, FanGraphs puts their odds at 23.1%, suspiciously close to the 23.4% Baseball Prospectus figure from 2017, while BP now gives them a 28.3% chance. The latter two odds give deference to the talent present on the roster, rather than the team’s actual performance (over the past 100 games is BR’s formula), which speaks to the main issue here: the team still feels like it has the pieces to be pretty good. The team’s results (for nearly a year now) say otherwise. Does the front office look at the 8.8% chance and sell, similar to how they acted following the 2-6 stretch post-García acquisition in 2017? Or do they view that juicy 28.3% chance from BP as legitimate, and add to their roster? The 2023 Angels went for it and paid a huge price, losing Shohei Ohtani for a draft pick and depleting an already bad farm system, while the 2015 Mets added Yoenis Céspedes and made the World Series. Their odds at the All-Star break? 26.7%. The real question might not be at what specific point the team no longer believes their playoff odds justify investment in the team, but rather, what they think their odds really are. After all, the Twins have their own internal evaluations of themselves and the rest of the league. Whether their self-perceptions match the pseudo-objective estimates of outside entities is unclear. The default answer is that Falvey and company will stand pat, unless the team really tanks over the next 10 days. Last year, their odds at this time were 82% per FanGraphs and all we got was a lightly charred Trevor Richards, so winning every game from now until July 31 won’t necessarily change the calculus. Like 2024, there may just not be enough money in the budget to take on even a middling salary. What we haven’t seen from this front office is a retooling trade, whereby the team sold high on a valuable asset (such as Ryan or Jhoan Duran) that infused enough talent to set the team up better for the future while not necessarily punting on the current year. Think about that Clevinger trade, which brought the Guardians Josh Naylor, Gabriel Arias, Cal Quantrill, Joey Cantillo and Owen Miller. Naylor was then flipped this past offseason for Slade Cecconi, who has made 10 good starts for the Guardians. Other examples include the Brewers trading Josh Hader in 2023 or the Guardians (again) unloading Trevor Bauer in 2019. Truly, only the Rays, Guardians and Brewers make these types of trades, as they are all cash-strapped, on the cutting edge of analytics and have little concern for what their fans think. Do the Twins view themselves in such a mold? What do you think? Should the Twins add, stand pat, retool, or sell? View full article

Image courtesy of © Nick Wosika-Imagn Images Box Score: Starting Pitcher: Simeon Woods Richardson: 4 2/3 IP, 6 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 3 K (77 Pitches, 57 Strikes, 74%) Home Runs: None Bottom 3 WPA: Jhoan Duran (-.302), Willi Castro (-.168), Brooks Lee (-.163) Win Probability Chart (Via FanGraphs): It was rather circuitous, but the Twins entered Sunday’s game with a chance to improve their record to 48-48 entering the All-Star break. With the team’s other stars all failing to post their usual numbers, Byron Buxton has carried the load, punctuated by his posting the first-ever cycle at Target Field during Saturday’s romp against Pittsburgh. The team remains just three games out of a playoff spot, despite losing every series in June and the fifth spot of their rotation becoming a recurring bullpen game. At some point, the team will have to pitch and hit at the same time for extended stretches, but for now, Buxton has put them in a position where a hot stretch out of the All-Star break will get them right back where they need to be. First, though, they had to finish off a sweep against the Pirates, and despite the Bucs' deficiencies in most areas, they do have a couple of legitimate starting pitchers—including Sunday’s starter, Mitch Keller, who offers an array of quality pitches and a 96-MPH fastball. He's also been one of the most durable starters in baseball over the course of his career. Opposing him was Simeon Woods Richardson, the cause of one of Aaron Gleeman’s more embarrassing (though correct) recent crashouts. Woods Richardson has been nails since his recall, ditching his changeup for a splitter and posting a sub-1.00 ERA in his past five starts. He didn’t look all that amazing against the Pirates’ lineup, giving up some hard contact. The game plan was clearly to swing early to take advantage of his trying to get ahead. But the only damage came on an ambush by veteran Tommy Pham, who dove out over the plate and crushed a slider 421 feet to give Pittsburgh a brief lead 1-0 in the second. Keller seemed to have little trouble with the Twins lineup, mixing his slider, four-seamer and sinker to great effect. But a bloop from Harrison Bader (who should maybe sign an extension at this point, since he would probably be my third choice for first half MVP) put Buxton at the plate with a runner on. The Twins' star slugger did his usual routine, working the count and then barreling up a breaking ball that Keller should just be thankful stayed in the yard. It ended up being a double off the left-field wall that scored Bader and tied the game. Woods Richardson danced around raindrops for a while before allowing a couple baserunners with two outs in the fifth. After allowing his starter to face the top three batters in the Pirates lineup a third time, Baldelli turned to Louis Varland, who finished off the inning with a single pitch. (Gleeman began scouring and searching for folks with incorrect opinions on the matter.) Keller continued to cruise, finishing six innings with just the one run allowed on four hits. Varland pitched a scoreless sixth, working around a Jack Suwinski single by picking him off first base. Brock Stewart worked a scoreless seventh, working around a single by striking out Twins killer Andrew McCutchen on a nasty cutter to end the inning. Lefty Caleb Ferguson is still around and pitching well for the Pirates, and he worked a 1-2-3 seventh in relief of Keller. Griffin Jax then worked a 1-2-3 eighth, in dominant fashion. It figures, as he allows a .532 OPS in tie games and a .773 OPS when protecting a lead this year. The Twins made some noise in their half of the eighth, with consecutive singles by Christian Vázquez and Buxton putting two on base with one out, and prompting Baldelli to lift Vázquez for a pinch-runner. That immediately backfired, as Castro hit a nubber that Pirates catcher Henry Davis pounced on and threw out the lead runner (now DaShawn Keirsey Jr.) at third base for the second out. Trevor Larnach then flied out to end things. After throwing 34 pitches on Saturday, Jhoan Duran was called upon to pitch the ninth. He allowed a jam shot single to Ke'Bryan Hayes, and an infield hit to Oneil Cruz, the latter of which came when a dribbler got past a reaching Duran at the mound. Isiah Kiner-Falefa then delivered his fourth hit of the game, a clean single to center to load the bases. Spencer Horwitz, on an 0-2 count, got a far-too-hittable pitch that he smacked right to Brooks Lee in a drawn-in infield. A double play looked possible. The ball got stuck in Lee's glove, however, and he was only able to retire Horowitz at first base. 2-1 Pirates. David Bednar put Carlos Correa on to start the bottom of the ninth but then flummoxed the Twins with his curveball. What’s Next: The All-Star break is here! It begins with the Home Run Derby on Monday featuring Buxton and no, he won't be cursed or get hurt. I mean, he might, but aren't sports supposed to be fun? Buxton and Joe Ryan will then represent the American League in the All-Star game on Tuesday. The Twins will resume their season on Friday in Coors Field against the woeful Rockies (22-74). Postgame Interviews: Coming soon Bullpen Usage Chart: WED THU FRI SAT SUN TOT Adams 0 0 0 68 0 68 Durán 9 0 0 34 17 60 Stewart 15 0 23 0 13 51 Varland 12 0 19 0 14 45 Jax 14 0 0 12 9 35 Coulombe 9 0 11 14 0 34 Sands 0 0 5 19 0 24 Topa 0 16 0 0 0 16 Wentz 0 0 0 0 0 0 View full article

Image courtesy of © Bruce Kluckhohn-Imagn Images Box Score: Starting Pitcher: Joe Ryan: 6 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 8 K (97 Pitches, 68 Strikes, 70.1%) Home Runs: Byron Buxton (20), Harrison Bader (10) Bottom 3 WPA: Justin Topa (-.407), Griffin Jax (-.340), Royce Lewis (-.139) Win Probability Chart (Via Fangraphs): The Twins seem intent on delaying their time of death, winning in dramatic fashion against a good Rays team on back-to-back days to start this holiday weekend series. Despite all the losing and all the injuries, the team entered Sunday's game four games back of a Wild Card spot. The one remaining consistently good pitcher the Twins can trot out every fifth day is Joe Ryan, and he took the ball hoping to deliver a sweep and (maybe) earn an All-Star nod for himself. He started strong, hitting 97 MPH with his fastball and striking out the side in the first. Drew Rasmussen started for the Rays, and was immediately rocked by Byron Buxton pulverizing a cutter 414 feet to start the game off 1-0. Rasmussen is pretty good, and worked through the rest of the inning unscathed. He also had the luxury of emptying the tank early, as he was scheduled for just two innings of work to preserve his twice-surgically-repaired elbow ahead of the All-Star break. The Rays are opportunists, and the light-hitting Taylor Walls got a split-change from Ryan in the second that hit the corner down and in, rather than down and away. Thus, the pitch floated right into Walls's bat path and traveled 368 feet to tie the game at one. Ryan said after the game that he liked the pitch call from Christian Vázquez, and accepted responsibility for the failure to execute. The visitors struck again in the fourth. After Jose Caballero blooped a single that landed on Trevor Larnach's foot, Jonathan Aranda got an 0-2 fastball that got a bit too much of the strike zone, and the breakout first baseman lashed it into the right-field corner to score Caballero. Ryan did settle down from there, striking out Josh Lowe on a brilliant little backdoor slider before getting Walls to pop out on the first pitch. The bulk pitcher for the Rays was Joe Boyle, a reclamation project they acquired by trading one of their more successful reclamation projects in Jeffrey Springs. Boyle flashed good stuff, sitting 98-99 with the fastball and mixing in an effective split-change and slider. He pitched around a Buxton single and a Willi Castro walk in the third by striking out Larnach and Carlos Correa, before carving up Brooks Lee, Matt Wallner and Royce Lewis in the fourth, the latter two striking out haplessly. Ryan showed some good poise in the sixth. He thought he had struck out Junior Caminero on a slider on the black, and was taking his customary strikeout stroll. He then realized the pitch was called a ball, and allowed a single on the next pitch. After starting the next hitter, Aranda, 2-0, Vazquez called for a chat to settle his pitcher down. But the umpire ruled that Ryan was attempting to start his delivery before Aranda made eye contact with him, so a pitch clock violation was called on Ryan. That made the count 3-0, but Ryan recovered to induce a pop-up, then retired Mangum to end his outing. The Twins finally made some noise against Boyle in the sixth. Larnach squibbed a double down the left-field line, and Lee hit a sharp grounder off Caballero's glove. As the ball trickled away, Larnach tried to score and slid in just safe, confirmed after a Tampa Bay challenge. The teams traded zeroes until the eighth, when Griffin Jax got into his usual trouble, allowing two seeing-eye singles to begin the inning before a sacrifice bunt advanced the runners. Caminero then hit a tapper in front of the mound that Vázquez tried to field and tag the pinch-runner, Christopher Morel, at home—too late. Aranda then hit a similar tapper that scooted past Jax's glove, because of course it did. In a hard, vessel-straining blink, it was 4-2 Rays. But the Rays forgot that Harrison Bader was available off the bench. Hard-throwing lefty Mason Montgomery struck out Buxton to start the bottom of the eighth, but walked Castro. Bader came out hacking, missing a 99-MPH fastball to begin the at-bat, but on the third pitch, Montgomery left a slider to Bader's liking, and he demolished it just inside the left-field foul pole. Tie game. Louis Varland and Pete Fairbanks pitched scoreless ninth innings to send us to the 10th. Justin Topa immediately allowed Tampa to take the lead once more, with Yandy Díaz lacing a liner to the wall in right-center. Caballero then bunted again, and it wasn't even a good bunt, but Topa still managed to field and throw the ball past Kody Clemens at first, allowing Caballero to reach third and, yes, score on a sacrifice fly the next at-bat. That made it 7-4 Rays. The Twins would get the tying run to the plate in the bottom half, but Brooks Lee tapped out to end it. Stray Observations: -Christian Vázquez threw out two runners, the pretty fast Jake Mangum in the second, and the ultra-fast Chandler Simpson in the third. He's been really good of late against the running game. -Boyle finished five innings with zero earned runs and seven strikeouts. Pretty good for Triple-A depth. -Can we stop with the stat-washing of Griffin Jax (Glen Perkins actually tried to make an All-Star case for Jax at the start of his inning)? He has not been good this year, despite, yes, having good pitches and being a talented pitcher with great peripheral stats. His mental game is very poor, and has been since he entered the league. Remember 2023? The game plan has to be, put the ball in play, get him rattled, and pounce on the inevitable mistake. It's a winning formula until he proves it's not. What’s Next: After an off day Monday, Simeon Woods Richardson (4-4, 4.41 ERA) will take on the Cubs' Shota Imanaga (5-2, 2.78 ERA) at Target Field. Imanaga has just returned to action after missing time with a hamstring strain, but has been a good find for the Cubs. Woods Richardson has been pretty good since his first start following his demotion against Texas, with a 1.71 ERA in his last four. Postgame Interviews: Bullpen Usage Chart: WED THU FRI SAT SUN TOT Adams 0 0 0 68 0 68 Stewart 15 0 23 0 12 50 Durán 9 0 0 34 0 43 Varland 12 0 19 0 9 40 Jax 14 0 0 12 13 39 Coulombe 9 0 11 14 0 34 Topa 0 16 0 0 9 25 Sands 0 0 5 19 0 24 Wentz 0 0 0 0 0 0 View full article

Image courtesy of © Lon Horwedel-Imagn Images Box Score: Starting Pitcher: Chris Paddack: 4 2/3 IP, 6 H, 3 ER, 0 BB 3 K (91 Pitches, 59 Strikes, 64.8%) Home Runs: None Bottom 3 WPA: Brooks Lee (-.128), Paddack (-.114), Byron Buxton (-.089) Win Probability Chart (Via FanGraphs): The Twins somehow had a chance to take a road series against one of the league's best teams, who also happen to lead the AL Central. Standing in their way was defending Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal, and he was in no mood to make this game seem winnable at any point, finishing with 13 strikeouts across seven scoreless innings. Byron Buxton began the game by striking out on a filthy changeup from Skubal. Ryan Jeffers followed with a routine fly out, and from there, Skubal went scorched-earth, striking out the next seven batters by locating his 98-MPH fastball wherever he wanted, and keeping the Twins off balance with his disappearing changeup, unreachable to any right-handed batter. Chris Paddack was on the mound for the Twins and was amped, hitting 98 MPH with his fastball in the first inning. The Tigers had some trouble squaring up the fastball, but seemed content to wait for his other offerings—highlighted by Kerry Carpenter launching his 16th home run off a sloppy changeup from Paddack. Paddack continued allowing hard contact, but was bailed out by his defense, most notably on an over-the-shoulder catch at the wall by Willi Castro that saved a sure run in the third. However, Riley Green sat on another changeup in the fourth, and launched it 381 feet to double Detroit's lead. Meanwhile, Skubal took a perfect game into the fifth before he gave up a one-out gapper off the bat of Ty France. That proved inconsequential, as Skubal struck out Harrison Bader on yet another filthy changeup, and got Brooks Lee swinging at 99 MPH at his eyes to end it. The Tigers pounced on that missed opportunity in the fifth. Following a hit-by-pitch of Colt Keith, Carpenter slammed a Paddack fastball up in the zone down the right-field line with two outs. Castro tried to chase it down, but it ping-ponged in the corner, which allowed Keith to score the game's third run. That was the end of the road for Paddack, as Danny Coulombe came in to retire Greene. Skubal coasted from there, walking Christian Vázquez at one point but otherwise completely shutting down the Twins lineup. The Twins seemed to be starting a mini-rally in the eighth against Tommy Kahnle, with Bader singling to start the inning and Lee hitting a sharp grounder to the hole between first and second. But Spencer Torkelson made an excellent play, spearing the ball and making a great feed to second, with Lee unable to beat out the twin-killing. Stray Observations: -Skubal is the best left-handed starter in the game, with all due respect to Max Fried and Garret Crochet. He throws harder, has better mound presence, and goes deeper in games. He's an absolute menace. -I wonder if Paddack has any trade value left, now that his ERA has settled back into the mid-4s. The problem is that you can't market him as an innings-eater, as he has been one of the least durable pitchers in baseball, and you can't say he'd be a difference-maker, since he's never been that effective. Maybe other teams are interested in a really nice guy who never backs down from a challenge, even though he will almost always lose said challenge. "Who will save us from the alien invasion?!" Paddack: "I'll do it." "Chris Paddack? Wasn't he sort of good in 2019, but spent the last six years hurt and ineffective?" "I'm gonna save the day. I'm a sheriff." "Wow he's so loyal and nice! Hopefully the aliens won't sit on his offspeed and breaking pitches." "Oh, he's dead." What’s Next: The Twins head to Miami for an off day Monday, before beginning a series against the Marlins. Joe Ryan (8-3, 2.86 ERA) opposes Edward Cabrera (2-2, 3.78 ERA) as the Twins try to start salvaging their season with the trade deadline getting closer and reinforcements on the way—either in or out. Postgame Interviews: Coming soon Bullpen Usage Chart: WED THU FRI SAT SUN TOT Wentz 0 0 0 48 0 48 Sands 0 31 0 12 0 43 Topa 0 8 0 0 30 38 Jax 9 0 23 0 0 32 Varland 17 0 15 0 0 32 Stewart 0 13 0 0 14 27 Coulombe 0 16 6 0 1 23 Durán 9 0 9 0 0 18 View full article

Image courtesy of © Brad Rempel- Imagn Images Box Score: Bulk Pitcher: David Festa: 4 2/3, 12 H, 8 ER, 3 BB, 3 K (96 Pitches, 65 Strikes, 67.7%) Home Runs: Byron Buxton 2 (17), Ryan Jeffers (6), Ty France (6) Bottom 3 WPA: Festa (-.498), Matt Wallner (-.204), Trevor Larnach (-.180) Win Probability Chart (Via Fangraphs): Another day, a new rock bottom for the Minnesota Twins. With their pitching in a slump, and their lineup cooling off after a decent start to June, it was the defense's turn to revert to early-April levels of performance ,as the Twins lost the first two games of the series against Milwaukee 26-6. It marks the longest stretch of losing baseball with Byron Buxton available and hitting well that I can remember. The day began with Danny Coulombe acting as an opener for David Festa. After two quick outs to begin the day, the red-hot Christian Yelich got on top of a hanging cutter from the lefty and laced it into the right field corner. He would score on a bloop single from William Contreras. The Twins would answer this time! First, Buxton rammed a sinker 411 feet into the bleachers in left-center to get the offense going. And it did, with four consecutive singles off of fungible Milwaukee starter Quinn Priester. That left the bases loaded with one out and two runs in, but Kody Clemens lined out hard to second baseman Brice Turang, and Ryan Jeffers tapped out, limiting the damage. With Festa starting his day, he was greeted by a home run from Rhys Hoskins, tying the game and flipping the momentum of the ballgame. Festa would stop the bleeding there, but would not be so fortunate in the third inning. Sal Frelick began the inning with a dribbler that Brooks Lee bobbled, and was scored an error (but later reconsidered and called a dubious infield single). Jackson Chourio, fully capable of crushing 450-foot home runs, bunted right to Lee, who missed the barehand play, putting a second runner on base. Yelich then hit a chopper that bounced over Lee's outstretched glove to score Frelick and regain the lead. Chourio also took the extra base on said single, which would prove crucial as he scored on Hoskins' sacrifice fly. So two ground balls, a bunt and a fly ball led to two runs for the Brewers. Were it the Twins, that sequence would lead to zero runs and a 6-8 week injury. The Brewers weren't done with Festa. Caleb Durbin legged out an infield single, and Joey Ortiz poked a single through the right side, with Durbin taking third on the play. Once again, Festa made his pitches, but the Brewers had a game plan and they executed it. Festa even managed to strike out both Chourio (great slider) and Yelich (excellent changeup) to end the inning, but a wild pitch during the Yelich at-bat scored Durbin, and the Brewers were suddenly up three. Jeffers did manage a long home run off a fat cutter from Priester, who was not impressive and ended up going 3 1/3 innings with three runs allowed, two home runs and four strikeouts. Festa finally caved in the fifth. He walked Contreras on four pitches, but then induced a ground ball from Isaac Collins to Carlos Correa, who nimbly tagged second for a forceout. Festa got another grounder, although a hard-hit one-hopped, from Hoskins, right to Lee. However Lee, perhaps ruminating over the numerous close calls and misplays he had already made, didn't get his glove down and the ball deflected off his body and under the tarp, allowing Hoskins what was technically a double. Festa then grooved a changeup to the nitro zone (down and in) of Turang, who smacked it 412 feet for a three-run home run that effectively ended the series. Three more singles would follow, and before you could blink the score was 9-3 and Jonah Bride was probably starting to get his arm loose again. Buxton would deliver another home run as part of a 3-5 day with a steal that raised his OPS above .900 (.928 to be exact). That made the score 9-4, and the Twins would threaten again in the seventh. Facing lefty D.L. Hall, Ty France drew a walk in front of Lee's third single of the game. Correa singled, and Bride came in to draw a gutty walk. All of a sudden, the tying run was at the plate in Jeffers. Nick Mears was brought in to face the Twins' catcher, and fell behind 3-1. He did induce a run scoring dribbler that made the score 9-6. Harrison Bader was then brought in to pinch hit for DaShawn Keirsey Jr. and flied out to right field. The Twins would add in the eighth, facing lefty Jared Koenig. After Buxton struck out, Wallner beat out an infield hit. Larnach popped out, and Ty France fell behind in the count before leaning out and flicking a curveball inside the left field foul pole for a home run to make the score 9-8. Lee and Correa each delivered their fourth singles of the game, bringing up Bride with the tying run 90 feet away. That prompted the Brewers to insert their closer, our old dopey friend Trevor Megill, who has flourished in Milwaukee. He made mincemeat out of Bride, dotting a 98 MPH fastball on the outside corner for a called strikeout to end the frame. Megill was brought out for the ninth, an unfamiliar position for him, and gave up a screaming double to Bader with one out. Buxton was intentionally walked, and Wallner came to the plate with the winning run on first base. He would pop out, leaving the game for Larnach, who was caught looking after grimacing on some swings early in the at-bat, his hand appearing to still affect him after sitting the past few games. Stray Observations: -Maybe the Brewers, Rays and Guardians are onto something with the way they approach hitting. The way I view it is that those teams will do anything possible to score one run, even if that means sacrificing individual at-bats. Once they have put pressure on the pitcher, that is when they start waiting for mistakes. Those teams are the most analytically-driven in the game, and maybe its time to throw away the dinosaur stats of mid-2010's sabermetrics and approach the game more in the moment, rather than big-picture. At least some of the time. It's similar to how the most efficient way to score in basketball is to shoot three pointers. But if the other team completely sells out to stop you from taking them, you have to make an adjustment. I just don't understand why that is so easy to understand in the NBA while being mocked mercilessly in MLB as backward and anti-intellectual. I would say the strict adherence to stuff we figured out in 2005 is far more anti-intellectual. -Buxton is about to have the most trade value he has had since he was the number one prospect in baseball. Despite certain fan ignorance surrounding his contract, he is on an extremely (and I can't stress this enough) cheap deal while performing as the best center fielder in baseball. Seriously he makes the 106th most money per year, right in front of Alex Cobb. Buxton wants to be here, and surely the front office wants him here, but if they are approached with a trade proposal of multiple top-50 prospects and some major league ready talent, they would have to at least entertain it. -Lee had four or five plays that he didn't make. Most were difficult, but with each successive play not made, it looked like Lee was affected mentally. He did have four hits, though. What’s Next: Bailey Ober (4-4, 4.54 ERA) faces Brian Woo (6-4, 3.12 ERA) as the Twins continue their homestand against the Seattle Mariners. The Mariners have been struggling, though not to the level of the Twins, with their offense crashing back to Earth after a strong start. Ober has been piecing it together, but is clearly not 100% physically and will need to out-smart the Mariners (not that difficult) if he wants to pitch deep into the game. Postgame Interviews: Bullpen Usage Chart: WED THU FRI SAT SUN TOT Sands 0 13 0 31 0 44 Topa 0 17 22 0 5 44 Wentz 0 0 43 0 0 43 Coulombe 0 15 3 0 21 39 Stewart 0 0 0 11 18 29 Durán 0 0 3 0 18 21 Varland 0 13 0 4 0 17 Jax 0 15 0 0 1 16 View full article

Image courtesy of © Erik Williams-Imagn Images Box Score: Starting Pitcher: Simeon Woods Richardson: 5 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 4 K (53 Pitches, 38 Strikes, 71.7%) Home Runs: Brooks Lee (7) Bottom 3 WPA: Jhoan Duran (-.309), Christian Vázquez (-.203), Cole Sands (-.194) Win Probability Chart (Via Fangraphs): You would be well within your rights to avoid watching Sunday's game in favor of celebrating Father's Day, watching the US Open, or drinking yourself into oblivion—maybe even all three! Nevertheless, there was a game to play, despite the Twins losing Pablo López, Zebby Matthews, Royce Lewis and (maybe) Byron Buxton in the past two weeks to injury, while losing games at an accelerating pace. Today was definitely a game to avoid, but the Twins themselves didn't have that privilege. To try and salvage a win from this series against the Houston Astros, the Twins turned to Houston native Simeon Woods Richardson, who was obliterated his last time out, returning from the minor leagues to allow seven runs to the Texas Rangers—until then, a struggling offense. Woods Richardson either made some adjustments, or was pitching angry, as his velocity was up and both his breaking balls looked sharp. He breezed through the first four innings on 31 pitches, without allowing a baserunner. If you've watched him at all, you know he tends to struggle to end at-bats and can be inefficient, even on a good day, so this was a welcome change of pace. Meanwhile, the Twins were up against journeyman lefty Brandon Walter, making his third career start. Walter moved around his cutter pretty well with good command, but the Twins made pretty good contact against him. Brooks Lee extended his hitting streak to 15 games by smacking a hanging cutter into the Crawford Boxes for the game's first run in the third. Lee then began the fifth inning with a sharp single to center field. After Ryan Jeffers was hit by a pitch and Carlos Correa advanced the runners, Willi Castro (already with two hits on the day) came up with two outs and ran the count full—before taking a sinker right down the middle to end the inning. The Astros finally got a baserunner in the fifth, as Jake Meyers hit a one-out grounder up the middle that deflected off Correa's glove. Woods Richardson then ran the count full against Saturday's walkoff hero, Cam Smith. All of a sudden, the game seemed to be in the balance, as this would not be the first time Woods Richardson looked great over the first three or four innings before giving it all up in the fifth. Smith did walk, which brought up the recently recalled Cooper Hummel for his fourth at-bat of the year. The Twins starter won that matchup, though, with a nasty changeup (allegedly a new split-change) darting away that got Hummel swinging. Mauricio Dubón did make decent contact with a Woods RIchardson fastball, but lined out to Harrison Bader in center to end the threat. With the bullpen fairly fresh and Woods Richardson in need of some confidence, Brock Stewart was summoned to begin the sixth inning. This, despite the starter being at just 53 pitches and not through the lineup a second time. Perhaps if the Twins had extended the lead in the fifth or sixth, instead of going down 1-2-3 in quick fashion, Rocco Baldelli may have given his young righty more leash. Conversely, Walter was allowed to begin the seventh inning. He allowed a one-out hit to Lee (his third), and was lifted after striking out Christian Vázquez for the second out. Credit to Walter: he showed some gumption, and has now delivered the injury-ravaged Astros rotation three solid starts. Whether he is actually part of the solution for Houston, or whether his good day was just a product of the Twins' offensive struggles, is hard to ascertain. The bottom half of the inning began ominously, as Louis Varland hit Jose Altuve with a pitch on his right forearm. However, Victor Caratini immediately grounded to Lee at second, who began a fairly easy double play before Jake Meyers grounded out to end the inning, the lead still intact. Varland was asked to start the eighth inning, as well, and he was greeted with a laser off the bat of Smith that nearly tied to game. It was hit so hard that Smith couldn't advance to second, however, as Castro made a nice play on the ball. A questionable sacrifice bunt call and two groundouts later, Varland escaped unscathed yet again. Jhoan Duran was summoned to close out the game, after throwing 20 pitches and taking the loss on Saturday. He was tasked with the top of the Houston lineup and began Jeremy Peña with four straight balls. He recovered to strike out Yainer Diaz on a devastating splinker, but Peña stole second on the first pitch to Altuve the following at-bat. After running the count full, Altuve reached out (on ball four) and tapped a ground ball to Correa, who was playing back and wasn't able to retire Altuve, Altuve not taking the walk proved costly, as Caratini swung at the first pitch from Duran and lifted a sacrifice fly to tie the game at 1-1. Extra innings ensued, and the Twins executed their half of the inning about as poorly as humanly possible. The first hitter was Vázquez, who failed to advance the runners and popped out. Jeffers then struck out, and Correa popped out. Cole Sands did his part, not allowing the advance on the first hitter, as Smith tapped out to the left side and Hummel struck out swinging. Dubón then lifted a fly ball to deep left-center that Castro appeared to get a glove on, but the ball dropped, allowing Houston to win and sweep the series. Stray Observations: -Lee isn't just producing, but it looks somewhat sustainable, as he appears to be swinging less and waiting for the pitcher to come to him before making better contact; he's not getting popped up as often. His OPS has eclipsed the .700 mark for the first time in quite a while. -Castro picked up two more hits batting right-handed, moving his OPS from that side of the plate over .800, a far cry from the hopeless at-bats Castro took against lefties the second half of 2024. -Jonah Bride looks cooked, missing hittable pitches and running his hitless streak to 24 at-bats. There's a good hitter somewhere in there, but the Twins could use his roster spot a lot more efficiently right now. The combination of Edouard Julien and Jose Miranda being ineffective with Lewis and Luke Keaschall getting hurt have all conspired to keep Bride's spot on the team. What’s Next: David Festa (1-1, 4.76 ERA) takes on the Reds and Andrew Abbott (6-1, 1.87 ERA) in the bandbox known as Great American Ballpark. The Reds have been playing well lately and Abbott is trying to strengthen his case for his first All-Star appearance. By the way, Abbott is a lefty. Festa looked great his last time out against the Rangers, pitching deep (for him) into the game in the one win they had in that Texas series. Festa establishing himself as a reliable starter every fifth day would go a long ways towards the Twins surviving the next 90 days without Lopez. Postgame Interviews: Bullpen Usage Chart: WED THU FRI SAT SUN TOT Durán 13 0 0 20 21 54 Wentz 0 38 0 0 0 38 Varland 16 0 0 0 22 38 Sands 0 26 0 0 12 38 Jax 0 0 17 13 0 30 Stewart 13 0 0 0 10 23 Coulombe 0 1 19 0 0 20 Topa 0 0 16 0 0 16 View full article

Image courtesy of © Jordan Johnson-Imagn Images Box Score: Starting Pitcher: Joe Ryan: 5 IP, 4 H, 3 R, 2 ER, 3 BB, 6 K (89 Pitches, 47 Strikes, 52.8%) Home Runs: Brooks Lee (5), Christian Vazquez (2) Bottom 3 WPA: Brooks Lee (.169), Christian Vazquez (.165), Willi Castro (.101) Win Probability Chart (Via Fangraphs): The Toronto Blue Jays are on a charmed streak right now, taking the first two games of the series at Target Field, with the second game particularly impressive as they scored against both Griffin Jax and Jhoan Duran in high-leverage moments en route to a 5-4 victory. To salvage the final game of the series, the Twins turned to Joe Ryan, their starter most prone to being bitten by "bad luck." As Twins fans, we know this to be partially self-inflicted, as the scouting report on Ryan is clearly to rattle him, with him having the tendency to lose focus after missed strike calls, infield hits and misplays. Ryan's stuff looked crisp to start, as he dotted the edges of the zone while sitting 95-96 MPH with his fastball, even striking out the extremely contact-oriented Alejandro Kirk to end the first. The Twins took a patient approach against scuffling Jays starter Bowden Francis. Francis was a revelation for the Jays down the stretch in 2024, taking multiple no-hitters into the ninth inning and looking like a building block for a team looking to synchronize the twilight of one core group of stars with the next generation. Byron Buxton led off with a walk, and Matt Wallner drew one as well later in the inning. Francis was having trouble locating his breaking ball for strikes, and the Twins did a pretty good job of forcing him into the zone with hard stuff, but were ultimately unable to capitalize in a scoreless first. The Jays looked to go quietly in the second, with second baseman Ernie Clement looking overmatched in the box against Ryan before slapping a two-out single the other way. Rookie Alan Roden then lifted a medium-depth fly ball that Wallner got a so-so break on, diving for a ball that scooted past and allowed Clement to score from first. The Twins would answer, though not to the extent they would have liked. Willi Castro led off with another walk, followed by singles from Ty France and Brooks Lee. Christian Vazquez got the run home with a ground out, and after another Buxton walk (you read that right) Trevor Larnach just missed his pitch and settled for a sacrifice fly to center. Wallner hit a liner ticketed for the right field corner, but Vladimir Guerrero Jr. made a leaping catch to end the threat. The third inning felt like a basketball game where a team shot 65% but gave up so many turnovers and rebounds they lost in a blowout. Bo Bichette drew a tough walk wherein Ryan was visibly frustrated with some of the calls. The home plate umpire even shouted out to Ryan, "You think everything is a strike!" Nevermind, Ryan then induced a grounder from Guerrero to Carlos Correa. What could go wrong? Well Correa's shovel pass to second base was way off the mark, and both runners were safe. No problem. Ryan retired the hot-hitting Addison Barger on a looper to left field. He then got a ground ball from Kirk, a catcher who can't outrun Willian Astudillo—an inning-ending double play was sure to follow. However, the ball found a hole just by the outstretched glove of Lee, allowing Bichette to tie the game. Feeling snakebit, Ryan decided to challenge George Springer, and that has just never been a good idea/ Springer lashed a double down the left field line. 3-2 Blue Jays. After throwing over 50 pitches over the first two innings, Francis got into trouble again in the third. Castro flipped a two-out single to left and France drew a walk. But Kirk, with a sterling defensive reputation, caught France napping off of first base to end the inning. France, who is so slow he was recently pinch-run for by Jonah Bride, probably didn't need to be straying that far off the bag as the trail runner. It was a TOOTBLAN. After an uneventful top of the fourth inning, the Twins decided to strike with the very bottom of their lineup, getting back to back home runs from Lee and Vazquez to retake the lead. The Twins looked to continue the momentum with Buxton hitting a hot shot down the third base line, but Barger made a great pick with even better "pop time" as his strong throw retired the speedy Buxton. The Twins would add on in the fifth. With one out, Royce Lewis pinch hit for Clemens against lefty Mason Fluharty, who has flashed pretty good stuff in this series. Lewis worked a hard-fought walk and Castro, who has shown more life against lefties lately, smacked a single. That prompted the Jays to insert righty Erik Swanson, whose elbow is hanging by a thread and just returned from the IL. France greeted him with a double the opposite way, scoring Lewis. Lee then continued his great day at the plate with a walk on 3-2 to load the bases. An out later Buxton drew his third walk of the game to buff the lead to three runs. Ryan was done after five innings, recovering from his rough third inning to post two scoreless frames, capping off his outing by inducing a double play from Kirk. Ryan threw only 53% of his pitches for strikes but his stuff was good and he spiraled less than he could have. Brock Stewart, Cole Sands and Jax spun uneventful, scoreless innings, all facing the minimum. Jhoan Duran pitched the ninth with a three-run lead, and while he did allow a baserunner, it didn't get dramatic. Game over. Stray Observations: -Lee reminds me a little of Larnach last year, never getting super hot, but also not slumping for extended periods of time. His process has been decent and as a fan you don't feel defeated when he comes to the plate in a clutch spot, despite middling offensive numbers. -Buxton is up to 17 walks on the year, after drawing a total of 20 walks in 2024. His chase rate is down about five percent in the early going, so it is fair to wonder if, in his age 30 season, Buxton is starting to develop an additional "old player skill." -Lewis looks playable these days (he went 2-2 with a walk today). He may never be the .900 OPS superstar he was in 2023, but if he can be a .775 OPS guy with a good feel for clutch moments and average defense, I think I would take that if he can play 120 games a year. However, after seeing the resurgence of Giancarlo Stanton in the playoffs, there is precedent for a guy who runs like the tin man turning himself back into an offensive force (and Lewis is ten years younger). -Castro is now sporting a .353 OBP after reaching four times today. This is the version of Castro that made the All-Star team last year while hitting a lot of leadoff. It is likely tempting to put him back there, but I kind of like the wild card element he brings to the bottom of the lineup. -The Blue Jays managed just one hit after the third inning, with the bullpen bouncing back after a rough day on Saturday. What’s Next: The likely starter on Tuesday will be Simeon Woods Richardson (2-2, 5.02 ERA), going against old friend Tyler Mahle (5-3, 2.02 ERA) as the Twins finish up the home stand against the Texas Rangers. Mahle has been resurgent in his first full season following Tommy John surgery in 2023 while still with the Twins. His fastball velocity has not fully returned, as he has averaged 92 MPH on the heater. However, the run value of both his fastball and changeup both exceed the 90th percentile, so his success has been legitimate so far. Wood Richardson has been decent in Triple A since his demotion, and will need to remain decent to help keep this starting rotation humming following the losses of Pablo Lopez and Zebby Matthews, Postgame Interviews: Bullpen Usage Chart: WED THU FRI SAT SUN TOT Durán 12 0 0 20 16 48 Jax 13 0 0 18 9 40 Varland 22 0 0 17 0 39 Stewart 15 0 0 0 14 29 Alcalá 0 26 0 0 0 26 Sands 0 0 9 0 17 26 Topa 0 0 15 0 0 15 Adams 0 0 0 0 0 0 View full article

Image courtesy of © John Froschauer-Imagn Images Box Score: Starting Pitcher: Chris Paddack: 8 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 10 K (110 Pitches, 75 Strikes, 68.1%) Home Runs: None Bottom 3 WPA: Griffin Jax (-.378), Carlos Correa (-.201), Ryan Jeffers (-.141) Win Probability Chart (Via Fangraphs): The gang finally got fully back together this weekend with the returns of Byron Buxton and Matt Wallner, and the results have been pretty wild. On Friday, an incredible comeback against the untouchable Andrés Muñoz (though not really untouchable for the Twins, historically) led to an extra-innings win. On Saturday they made their comeback against Muñoz's backup, Carlos Vargas, but the extra-innings execution was not along for the ride, and the Twins were walked off on a ground ball by Cole Young, the Mariners rookie making his debut. On Sunday, the Twins turned to Chris Paddack, who has been the best he has ever been in his seven-year career, despite a woeful six strikeouts per nine innings. Turning that piece of data on its head, Paddack struck out two in a nearly immaculate inning in the first, putting emphasis on his breaking stuff and making the M's look foolish. Luis Castillo took the ball for Seattle, and has been a nearly elite pitcher for quite a while now. Early in his career, he featured an unhittable changeup. When he arrived in Seattle a few years ago, his changeup became far less prominent, as well as less effective—but his slider took off and became elite, still complementing a riding four-seam fastball in the upper 90s. Last year, some of his fastball characteristics backed up, and Seattle even explored trading him this offseason. This year, his slider hasn't been effective at all. All the while, though, his results have never been anything but great. He looked it today, allowing lone baserunners in each of the first five innings but getting key strikeouts when he needed them, with both his changeup and slider looking plus-plus. He nearly hit Willi Castro with three separate sliders, all resulting in swinging strikes, and his fastball velocity sat 95-97 MPH. He would go on to complete six shutout innings. Paddack cruised through the first three innings, but started to struggle the second time through the lineup. In the fourth. JP Crawford singled sharply to begin the frame and dear friend Jorge Polanco roped a line drive to the deepest part of center field that Harrison Bader tracked down for the first out. Julio Rodríguez walked, and Paddack then got all-world catcher Cal Raleigh to strike out swinging on a backup slider in the middle of the zone. Randy Arozarena then laced a fastball right back up the middle, but Kody Clemens made a good stab on it to retire the side. He made an even better play in the fifth: That allowed Paddack to remain efficient, and he only needed 72 pitches to complete his first six, scoreless innings. However, after an impressive strikeout of Rodríguez on a sharp slider to begin the seventh, Raleigh got his revenge and slaughtered a first-pitch curveball below the zone for a game-changing home run. Paddack would stay on for the eighth. His velocity held up better than in some of his previous outings, hitting 96 MPH in the seventh and 95 MPH in the eighth. On his 103rd pitch, he struck out Ben Williamson on a filthy changeup. On his 104th pitch, he allowed a double to Crawford, but was allowed to stay on to face Polanco, whom he retired on a grounder to Correa. Is there a term for road loss complete game? There would be no need to pin one down. Facing Muñoz in the 9th, Clemens drew a one-out walk, and Ty France grounded a ball through the five-hole for a single. A wild pitch advanced the runners, and Harrison Bader lifted a fly ball deep enough to score Clemens, giving Muñoz his second blown save of the year against the Twins. He also had one in 2023 thanks to Max Kepler, and in 2022 courtesy of Byron Buxton. Some Griffin Jax Luck™ began the bottom half of the ninth, with Rodríguez bouncing a ball up the middle that Clemens couldn't make a play on. Jax managed to strike out the magma-hot Raleigh on a devastating sweeper. Rodríguez, who wasn't running in the Raleigh at-bat, did run with Arozarena at the plate, and Jeffers airmailed the throw, allowing Rodríguez to scamper to third. Arozarena made it a moot point, as he singled up the middle for a second straight walkoff Seattle win. Stray Observations: -Trevor Larnach seems to love hitting against Castillo. I remember the Twins facing the right-hander in 2023, while he was riding a hot stretch in which no one could touch him. Larnach hit a huge triple that opened the floodgates in a key Twins win. Today he was 2-for-3 against Castillo, and looked quite comfortable in each at-bat. -Wallner looked pretty good, as well. He looked silly swinging a sword at a Castillo changeup in the first, but rebounded to draw a tough walk. He roped a 113-MPH single in his second at-bat, and nearly homered in his third. -The Mariners look a lot different when their offense is being carried by a superstar. I didn't expect it would be Raleigh, who has been the equivalent of Ryan Jeffers with more slug and less contact thus far in his career. With him now the league leader in homers, pairing him with one of Rodríguez's customary summer hot streaks could make the Mariners legitimate contenders, given their elite pitching. What’s Next: Joe Ryan (5-2, 2.57 ERA) opposes the A's big free-agent acquisition, Luis Severino (1-4, 3.89 ERA), as the Twins conclude their trip through two minor-league ballparks and Seattle with a set in Sacramento. Ryan looks to build on his All-Star case (just like around this time in 2022, 2023 and 2024), while Severino looks to end his team's current six-game losing streak. Postgame Interviews: Coming soon. Bullpen Usage Chart: WED THU FRI SAT SUN TOT Jax 15 0 0 18 15 48 Sands 15 0 21 6 0 42 Alcalá 11 0 0 28 0 39 Stewart 0 0 17 11 0 28 Durán 0 0 13 14 0 27 Funderburk 19 0 0 0 0 19 Varland 0 0 0 18 0 18 Topa 0 0 0 10 0 10 View full article