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Everything posted by StormJH1
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So why exactly did they bring up Parmelee?
StormJH1 replied to IdahoPilgrim's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
This is a great question. There is no better example of how they're screwing this up than to look at what has happened with Plouffe. Plouffe was hitting .121 with 1 HR in 33 AB's for the month of April. It really wasn't until Valencia crapped out that he got any kind of extended look. As recently as May 18th, he was hitting .135! But now that they've given him a regular job and enough AB's, he suddenly has emerged as a legit power bat, and one of the few young bright spots in our lineup. Is is so unrealistic to think that Parmelee couldn't have done the same thing, given a regular opportunity? If you would've asked anyone in April, they'd have put money on a breakout performance by Parmelee long before they'd bet on Plouffe. Yet, here we are. To be fair, the fact that Morneau has stayed in the lineup and played 25 of 44 games at 1st base was a somewhat unexpected development that blocked any long-term opportunity for Parmelee. Also, between Doumit's improved hitting, and the need to keep Mauer away from everyday catching (plus the games Morneau DH's), there really isn't much room for Parmelee at DH, either. This is also a situation that may correct itself in time, because the chances of one or more of those three guys I just mentioned getting hurt again are fairly high. -
Yeah, agreed. It's more of a "tone" think with Souhan. I never really read Barriero as a columnist, but having heard him extensively on the radio, I can't imagine it was much more extreme than that in print, as compared to him trying to drum up controversy 3-4 hours a day on the radio. Bump's negativity is too much for some people, but I'm usually a fan of his. Souhan just sounds bitter. There's something about his tone that feels a little elitist, almost as if they flew in a New York Times writer who wasn't really a baseball fan and asked him to breakdown the flaws with the Twins. He's clearly experienced and "plugged in" to the issues with the team, but when you read him, you don't "hurt" with him the way you may joke with a buddy about how bad the team is, but laughing while you're talking about it. Souhan just feels like he needs to complain sometimes.
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I'm not comfortable with the "Gladden's walked the walk" argument. A huge proportion of TV and radio broadcasters are former players. In Detroit, we had George Kell and Al Kaline, who are legends compared to Gladden's solid, but not extraordinary career. Few pitchers have "walked the walk" like Blyleven did in his long career. But that doesn't Bert's occasional arrogance and derisiveness any more palatable to the people who dislike him. I didn't like Gladden when he was a player much, and I don't like him now, but that's not really my critique of his broadcasting. His issues are the dead air and the lack of excitement. He's really the complete inverse of Dick Bremer - Bremer is very excitable, and (I think) does a good job, but he also gets excited over things that should be non-events, like a 275-foot flyball out. Especially on the radio, I'd rather have someone flawed in the way Bremer is, than to sound like you're bored or too good to get excited about the product you're covering.
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The Twins are on pace for about 63 wins currently. Obviously, that would be a disaster, as it's pretty much exactly on par with last year. I think the fact that Morneau and Willingham are on this team, and that Morneau has shown flashes of his former self would put them at on course for about 70 wins or so. I feel like we have a lot of interleague matchups and games against the Central coming up, whereas our early schedule was pretty brutal. I wanted to say that having Mauer catching (even a struggling Mauer) is also a clear upgrade over Butera, but for Mauer's "injury plauged" 82-game season last year, he actually did play from June 17th to September 14th (before the pneumonia thing). I just don't believe that Mauer has that much of an impact on this lineup. He'll probably always post an .800 OPS because of his ability to walk and get singles, but I refuse to believe that ability benefits a struggling lineup the way that Miguel Cabrera does hitting a garbage pitch over the CF wall.
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Right on both counts. I like him as a utility player just fine. He hits well enough to perform THAT role. But it's clear the organization (okay, Gardy mostly) just doesn't like the guy. It's funny how that perception works. Because he's a Latin player, there seems to be this belief that he's either becoming a star, or he's worthless to us. But players like Tolbert, Punto, etc. are accepted for their shortcomings, and are celebrated as guys who battle their tail off to stay in the league. I can't think of a single instance of Casilla dogging it out there or showing like he doesn't care. This just is what he is. On Dozier - We should definitely keep him up. I know he only got 28 games in at Triple-A, but this guy hit at an .800+ OPS all over the minors. He's 25 now, and his MLB hitting after 120 plate appearance hasn't been great, but let's play this out some more. Again, as we say for virtually EVERY position on the Twins, it's not like they Mike Trout or Bryce Harper ready to take his place.
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Agreed with the other posters. There's no reason to give up on him. It's clear that he isn't a phenom, but this is plenty of time for him to become a productive MLB player. His AA numbers are by no means terrible. Nothing to suggest he's close to the big leagues, obviously. One thing I notice which sort of concerns me is that his SB success rate is not all that good. Maybe just a timing thing with jumps, but if he at least had elite basestealing speed, that could give him some value as a reserve player while he figures out how to hit.
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Article: R.A. - The One That Got Away
StormJH1 replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I don't fault the Twins for letting him go, but I do remember liking him, and there were stretches where he wasn't really THAT bad. If he put up his '09 performance on THIS year's Twins team, we'd be celebrating him. Still, he had zero track record for success prior to the Twins, and he had a 4.2 BB/9 and 1.62 WHIP for us. In his three years with the Mets, he basically cut his walks in half, which I would imagine is a big key to his success. And yes, he only got one start even though our rotation that year was not all that great, and he's ill suited to be a reliever. I might actually read his book, I think he's one of the more fascinating stories in baseball. It wasn't even discovered he was missing the UCL until somebody spotted him holding his elbow at strange angle in a USA baseball team photo. -
Like the call-up. This guy isn't 20, he's 24. He's been at AAA now and showed some success, and he's been in the majors in parts of two seasons. The MLB team is terrible, and it does us no good to leave an over-ripe prospect in AAA, when he's one of the few available prospects with any type of power potential. Heck, even Plouffe's getting an extended look, and he's hitting around .175.
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I don't understand this at all. It's hard for me to imagine star, elite pitchers in amateur baseball (HS and college) being thrown in the bullpen unless there was a REASON they weren't starters. I'm sure it's possible to convert one or two of these guys, but why do it? I'm not even as alarmed by the fact that they're drafting 18 year olds instead of 20-22 year-old college pitchers, I get that this is more long-term. But if you're drafting these relievers because they throw mid-90's and "touch 97", they aren't going to do that as starters. Look at the difference between Perkins as a starter versus a reliever.
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It may be that Denard Span is "not long for this team", but Byron Buxton has little or nothing to do with that. We're probably 3-5 years away from Buxton becoming a viable MLB starter, which of course is never a guarantee to begin with. Span is 28 years old, and under contract through 2014 with a team option for 2015. And with all the bad contracts the Twins gave out, an average of about $3 million a year for solid lead-off hitter and CF is hardly a burden, even with the concussion issues included. So yes, the Twins could look at Span in his early 30's and opt to go with Buxton instead, but that's years away. Plus, I wouldn't assume the organization has completely written off Ben Revere, despite his obvious limitations. He plays at a position where range and defensive ability can justify a below average bat, so it's feasible that he gets his OBP up and perhaps learns how to put down a bunt, and could still figure into their future plans. Span and Willingham are the only two guys that I feel like could realistically be moved for anything of value, both because they're good players and because they have favorable contracts. That's not to say that other people won't also be moved, but c'mon, no team is giving us decent prospects for the likes of Pavano or Capps.
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Absolutely. Well done. I'm not really a "Gardy hater" - I think he has one or two great attributes for every one of his flaws. But he's very much a part of an organizational "culture" that seems to try and mold/shape guys like Garza who don't 100% drink the Kool-Aid, instead of letting them be who they are and appreciating that they play for your squad. If we're talking about "did this trade look good at the time?", then I would have to say yes, and I don't really fault Smith for this deal. There's kind of this myth/false assumption that we got Delmon as a "failed" prospect, which is total BS. Delmon played two seasons for Tampa Bay at ages 20 and 21. 21 years old. And he batted .288 that year with a little bit of power. Sure, he didn't take walks, and a lot of his numbers are kind of ugly, but this was a guy that was absolutely fast-tracked and did NOT disappoint, relative to his age. His batting average his first three years as a Twin was .290, .284. and .298. Again, he didn't walk much, but he was hardly a bum. Delmon played 163 games in RF and 30 games in CF for the Rays those two years. He had NEVER played left field. I understand that Cuddyer would have the edge to start in RF that year, but Gardy should have switched Span to LF and put Delmon back to RF once Cuddyer got injured. But he didn't because Gardy and this organization defer to "their guys", sometimes at the expense of the team. And Delmon absolutely was a huge factor in the success of the 2010 team, with some HUGE hits down the stretch, and basically replacing all of the production that people expected from Mauer, but didn't get. Yes, it went bad later, but Garza needed to get out of here. And who knows if a different Garza trade would have been any better. We got 3.5 years out of Delmon, and we got them cheap, which allowed us to pay Mauer, Morneau, and Cuddy, and add a few pieces like Pavano, Thome, O-Dog, etc. Overall, yes, it was an obvious disappointment, but it was not the unmitigated disaster people seem to think it was in retrospect.
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This is a great take. You have to look at "frame" to some degree, obviously, because if a guy is 5'9" 160lb, I'm sorry, but he's never going to be a 15-HR guy. Ben Revere, for example, is a guy that had a ceiling from the moment he was drafted. But that doesn't mean that 6'3" 220lb behemoth will necessarily become a power hitter either. Mauer murdered that ball this weekend for his 3rd HR, but that just isn't his approach. He either can't or won't be that guy, so he is what he is. I hear all this talk about the "toolsy" outfielders and I instantly think of the Upton brothers and a lot of the guys the Rays have drafted. But there's an interesting thing going on with (6'4", 190 lb) Dexter Fowler right now. He's 26 and it was basically presumed he was a decent leadoff-type hitter, and suddenly he has his career high in HR's (8) after only 168 plate appearances. Bat speed and technique can generate power just the same that sheer brute muscle can. Alfonso Soriano is one of those guys who never looked that strong but can absolutely kill a baseball with whatever weight he does have on his frame. I'd rather pick Buxton here and be wrong about it, than take a pitcher (even one who could be decent in the majors) and have to watch 4 years ago if Buxton blows up somewhere.
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True. Some other people liked that trade too (I think Gleeman did), which was confusing when he put up terrible numbers at AAA last year. But his entire career aside from that has been pretty solid. I guess my ongoing concern would be that he had a 7.1 K/9 ratio in the minors, and if he's a 5.0 to 6.5 K/9 guy in the majors, he'll get hit. But even if he posts a ERA in the 4.00 range and can throw strikes as a lefty, he could be a very valuable back of the rotation guy going forward. And he wasn't considered a legitimate prospect heading into the year, really.
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Agree with Nick, but that has to go both ways. If FanGraphs said that Mauer was worth $6 million right now, critics of Mauer (myself included) shouldn't be have license to use that number to prove he's overpaid. Contract value is highly subjective, and in the case of Mauer, there was value to keeping Mauer that can't be measured with any statistic (such as watching him bowl strikes in Twins commercials, or sing off-key in Minnesota tourism commercials, instead of seeing him in pinstripes and a Yankee hat on SportsCenter). I'm actually surprised how many knowledgeable fans share the view that Mauer is overpaid. A lot of the statheads (Gleeman comes to mind) seem to be able to come up with reasons why Mauer is one of the best in baseball, no matter how much he struggles. Then again, this is the same logic telling us that J.D. Drew is a borderline Hall of Famer. (Seriously. Read Gleeman's analysis of #2 overall picks and WAR).
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Article: Finding A Home For Justin Morneau
StormJH1 replied to John Bonnes's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
The swings in perspective on Morneau are so dramatic I can't even keep track. At the start of the year, it was widely assumed by many that he (a) was banished to DH for the remainder of his career; ( might try and play 5-10 games before realizing his concussion symptoms came back and hung it up for good; or © was healthy enough to stay in the lineup, but his focus and timing had been so affected by the concussion problems that he wouldn't be any good anymore. Morneau had a slow start, hit two homeruns in New York, then he sucked for another week or so before missing May 1st through 15th due to one of his OTHER injuries. Not the head, not the neck, but the wrist. And, of course, he's been mostly terrific since coming back to the lineup, and is also playing regular first base. But it's been two weeks. And as much as I love Morneau as a player, I'm just skeptical that the rest of the league loves him enough to go from "this guy's done" to "hey, we should TRADE for this guy's contract" in a period of just a few weeks. The concussion concerns are never going away. The next time he has one, he's basically done, a fact which Morneau has bascially acknowledged. Morneau couldn't even finish 162-game seasons BEFORE his concussion problems resurfaced in 2010, and he has a laundry list of other nagging issues that could still pop up at any time. He's clearly still capable of being a terrific player when everything is right, but how often will that be? I think even in a realistic deal, the returns for Morneau will appear disappointing to a fan base that still values this guy as a "star" player, and the de facto "leader" of this team. I don't think it makes sense to trade him simply because we don't have much else to trade and we're supposed to be rebuilding. I'm just not sure that the returns for Morneau would actually be better than the potential of keeping him and possibly having a productive player for a few more seasons, even if intermittently. -
Keith Law top 25 prospect update- good news for Sano
StormJH1 replied to Thrylos's topic in Twins Minor League Talk
I'm hardly the one to play morality police here. Keith Law regularly talks about his rankings on podcasts and I've seen the rankings themselves (not necessarily the full article) redistributed on other websites, along with other for-pay content. If I was an ESPN columnist (apart from some of the big names that get exposure on-air), I'd be pissed/annoyed if my content was strictly Insider. Yay, I'm on the "Worldwide Leader" but not really, since my stuff is subscription only, about 1/24 of the people who read Simmons or general articles on ESPN are even exposed to it. Significantly more people would know who the crap Keith Law was if people could visit ESPN and read his stuff without having to get their credit cards out. And yes, it DOES matter if it's ESPN as opposed to Seth Stohs' publication or some other upstart. Raise your hand if you just cancelled your Insider subscription because you saw rankings from one article posted online. Keith Law's rankings, in my view, belong to ESPN the same way that fantasy statistics belong to MLB. As in: "Yes, but not really". -
How could you trade for Morneau with that contract still left to pay and the knowledge that he could be shut down at any minute. You watch him in 2012, and it's obvious that there's still flashes of what he used to be. But this was a guy who wasn't even able to finish seasons BEFORE the 2010 concussion. He had 4 or 5 surgeries last year, and his wrist problems have already cost him time. I'm sorry, but if any one of those injuries becomes even a minor issue again, he isn't an upgrade for any team when he's on the field hurt. Oh, and by the way, there's no DH in the National League, so you're committing yourself to playing him at 1B every game, which something even the lowly Twins haven't done. I love Morneau as a player, he's one of my favorite Twins over the course of his career. But you can't ignore all of the risk when you're talking trade value.
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I would say no, for the time being. We went through this in Detroit with Comerica...the team paid a bunch of money for Juan Gonzalez in the early 2000's and absolutely sucked while McGwire, Sosa, and Bonds were breaking records. Plus, even when the Tigers were terrible in the 90's, they usually could hit a bunch of homers at Tiger Stadium (Cecil, Tettleton, Higginson, etc.). So they basically drew a straight line from the 345' LF foul pole to an area in CF, whereas it used to jut out even deeper, extending to 432' at one area of the power alley. But Comerica did not change the right field fencing at all, and it's right field where the problem allegedly lies with Target Field. Just off the top of my head, I recall right handed hitters like Willingham, Delmon, GoGoMez (for the Brewers), Plouffe, Dozier, etc. hitting absolute BOMBS to LF. And Thome obviously had no trouble at all going to RF because Thome is a beast. I still do not consider Target Field to be a "pitcher's park". I think the Dome was definitely a slight hitter's park, and fans and players were accustomed to that. Target Field doesn't have massive foul territory like Oakland's park, and the dimensions are reasonable. Before Morneau got wrecked, he did have 14 HR's away versus 4 at home in 2010. But just like with evergreen trees, I hate doing anything remotely permanent to a facility that can hopefully serve us for another 30 to 100 years because a couple of headcases like Mauer and Morneau have issues with it. The idea that Mauer would have 20+ HR's in a different home park, or that he routinely hits these moon-shots that land just short on the warning track is patently absurd. And even if the park were to blame, I can't even imagine that a park deterring home runs would have done anything but HELP this Twins team that routinely gives away outs with bunts and slap-and-run strategy, and pitches to contact more than any other team in baseball right now.
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Uni-Watch.com does not like P.J. Walters' "AFW" gesture
StormJH1 replied to Parker Hageman's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
This. Maybe there is an argument in there somewhere about "what if everyone did it"...but I can't even listen to it after they accuse him of grandstanding. Doesn't Denard Span point to the sky every time he gets a single for a friend/relative who died? I thought I remembered a batter (Curtis Pride, maybe?) who wrote the initials of his deceased friend in the batter's box everytime he stepped in. I always thought this stuff was as much a part of the game as rally caps. Heaven forbid players act like human beings and not robots. And I'm totally with Parker's take on the statute of limitations for grief. This a personal gesture that harms nobody. It isn't overly distracting, nor is it directed at the other team, or even his own team. If he wrote something like "Twins rock!" on the mound, I could maybe see the fuss. This is something that doesn't require anyone's commentary. -
Target Field's black batter's eye
StormJH1 replied to MrHockey's topic in Twins Daily Issues & Suggestions
The removal of those trees still makes me so angry. What the heck is the difference between what Target Field had in 2010 and Coors Field? Wow, those hitters are at a real disadvantage at COORS FIELD, aren't they? Baseballs are white. There is validity to the idea that you need to avoid having fans or other light colored objects in the batter's line of sight towards a pitched baseball. Last time I checked, evergreens are dark green. The M & M boys complained that waving branches might have distracted them, but Wrigley and Comerica have ivy on the walls, and many ballparks have scoreboards near centerfield that could conceivably distract hitters. Is everything in the whole park supposed to be one dark color? Aside from the fact that it sounded lame for Twins hitters to complain about it, I hate that we removed one of the distinguishing features of our ballpark. Yes, Target Field is often considered one of the Top 10 ballparks in MLB, but other than the Minny and Paul sign, I worry that it will just get lumped into all of the other ballparks since Camden that have used brick and rock facings and an open concourse design. Target Field is hindered by the tight space of the lot size anyway, but at least the trees were a nice "Minnesotan" feature to give it some character. The black wall is hideous. -
If you were ranking teams in terms of "having a chance to get Oswalt", the Twins would be somewhere between 25th and 30th. And that's being friendly.
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Saying "Mauer can do it!" is basically like saying "Anyone can do it!". I don't understand the upside. Suppose Mauer moved to 3rd base, and did it as well as Miguel Cabrera this year (not even a fair comparison, since 3B WAS Cabrera's original position). What does this solve? (1) Mauer isn't a "plus" bat at 3rd base. Not trying to be a troll here, but much like at 1st base, there are plenty of legit power bats at 3rd. Mauer is comparable to Chris Johnson, in his present state. (2) There's no star player at catcher that necessitated the move. This argument might have made sense if we had Buster Posey or even Ramos in the organization, but not now. (3) Mauer is 29 years old. 3rd base isn't the "safest" position to play. There's a lot of diving and hard physical charging for bunts, etc. And that's assuming you don't take liners off the face. You'd be forcing a move to a new position that certainly does not prolong his career in any meaningful way, and with his body already "turning the corner", it's tough to imagine you'd want him there in a few years anyway.
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We are still better suited playing 3 Triple-A pitchers with the hope that one of them is a "Diamond" in the rough....as opposed to trotting out washed up veterans who have no future with this team, and no real ability to help us win games this year. Pavano is basically playing for his trade value at this point, assuming he can even stay healthy.
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Wow, "poor man's Cecil Fielder?" You are way undervaluing Trumbo. If you can you hit .270 (or even .250). with 30 HR power and 100-125 K's per season (as was his M.O. in both AAA and the majors), that makes you Mark Texiera. Heck, Ryan Howard strikes out 150-200 times a year, and he's a $100 million player.
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Mark Trumbo is 26 years old and has 30-HR power potential. The Angels are FLOODED with OF talent, so why would they give away a guy who can absolutely mash and play a bit of 3B, corner OF, 1B, and DH? They already have speedy OF's in Trout and Bourjos. I don't question that Trumbo or Morales may be traded someday, but I don't think Span is nearly enough. And the prospects we would offer don't hold a candle to guys already in their organization.
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