StormJH1

You're probably right about the Marlins shopping Buehrle at some point and not expecting much in return. But I'm not sold on the idea that the Twins will make up much ground on the Tigers by spending $17+ million a year for 3 years on a middle-aged guy who'd be the 4th starter (or maybe 5th at the end of his contract) in Detroit. And they'd be done in free agency unless the Marlins picked up a big part of the tab, which they won't. As depressing as it is to use him as an example, Joe Saunders could give 90% of Buehrle's performance for half the money. Great job on the forecasts, Nick. Agree that they wouldn't take on a contract like Buehrle's, but I reject the premise that Terry Ryan is realistically "competing with Detroit" move for move. I don't think the Twins ever play like that as an organization. How can you, when the biggest FA signing they've ever made is 3 years/24 million to Josh Willingham. Detroit makes moves that nobody expects them to make and does so on a HUGE scale. The idea that they only thought to commit $200 million to Prince Fielder because V-Mart got hurt for one year seems insane, but they ended up with a good player. Cameron Maybin and Andrew Miller were elite prospects in 2007, but the Tigers flipped him for a Triple Crown winner. Prospects, even good ones, usually disappoint. Which is why you either need to stockpile a LOT of them, or flip them for value. The Twins haven't allowed themselves to do either. Much like with the entire organization (coaches, GM's, etc.), the Twins believe in promoting from within. The problem is that they got a little intellectually arrogant about their strategy, and through a combination of bad drafting, farm development, and bad luck, their starting pitching prospects are TERRIBLE. John Bonnes tried to name the "top starters" in the organization, and they were stuck after Gibson (hurt) and Berrios (who's like 18). If there's a worse organization in baseball for pitching depth, I would struggle to identify it. They drafted guys for years who had the CEILING of being a serviceable #3 starter, and then some of those guys failed or got hurt, and we don't even have many of those guys now. And if you look at all of the good pitching prospects that have changed hands over the past few years, the Twins weren't "eligible" for any of that either because they never really became "sellers" at any point during back to back 95+ loss seasons. Which is AMAZING to me. Liriano doesn't really count because was a combination rental player and "sell low" candidate, and the weak returns reflected that. I just struggle with the whole Twins approach of "we're too good to waste money on free agents" or "we're too good to trade proven guys for pitching prospects". You can defend any approach at a given time, but at some point, aren't you just doing NOTHING?

I love how we're 24 posts in and everyone trashed the OP so bad, nobody even bothered to tell them why the post made no sense/is impossible.

Pursuant to the "Rule of Zach Parise", Josh Johnson will obviously force a trade to his hometown team, and coerce another pending FA to join him! Agree with your take though, even if the "rental player" status (plus the fact that the Marlins get destroyed in virtually every trade they make) keeps the price down, why would you do that if you're the Twins? Payroll's going down, not up, and even for one year, that would be hard to swallow, given the fact that we arguably need 3 OK starters more than we need one good one. As much as guys like Joe Saunders kind of suck, you could stitch together an argument that it would make a bigger difference in the win/loss column adding 3 serviceable guys like that, versus one upper-end guy (like Grienke or even Sanchez) and then having to fill out two other spots with Cole DeVries, Blackburn, or another random AAA starter because you're out of money. Plus, those guys won't sign here, and we won't offer enough years to get them.

Feel absolutely terrible about this news. Always admired Neshek, and can't imagine the heartbreak of carrying to term, and then winning a division, watching the birth of your child, and then....this....within the period of a day. Deepest sympathies for the Nesheks.

I think he's a legit MLB 3rd baseman, and a guy with offensive upside we would have killed for in the days of Nick Punto, Mike Lamb, Tony Batista.... But realistically, I think he's a .250 hitter with about 20-25 HR power. And that's good enough to make nowhere near among our major "problems" heading into next year.

I heard John on the G & G podcast, and I just don't really feel like the "marketing" angle made any sense. Minnesota does not have any significant Japanese population to appeal to, and it's not like the St. Louis Cardinals became "Japan's" team after So Taguchi started playing for them. It isn't like lit was when Nomo, Ichiro, and even Hideki and Kaz Matsui came over - there's actually fair number of Japanese players all over the big leagues now, even in smaller markets. I will say that I was in Vancouver a few years ago, and there were some Asian owned drug stores there. Even though it was Canada (and Vancouver obviously has no MLB team), the drug stores sold jerseys of several well-known Japanese players from around MLB. Then again, Nishioka's jersey was discounted at the Mall of America to $30 not even two months into the 2011 season (no joke). It just seems like the Twins are risk averse with money - there was much more chance that Nishioka would fail and they'd lose money that way than there ever was of Nishi being moderately successful AND the team making back the additional money they paid him in endorsements/merchandising, etc.

I'm not normally the guy who throws out random names of other teams' players and speculates as to whether the Twins could get him, but I look at Trumbo as a guy who hit 30 HR's this year, but slumped TERRIBLY down the stretch to the point where he can't even get on the field for the Angels anymore. He's not going to play 1B with Puljos there, and the team remains committed to Kendrys Morales or any other number of aging sluggers they employ to hold down that DH spot. This guy seems to me like a younger version of Josh Willingham. He's not a .280 hitter, but I wonder if the Angels would part with him, and if we even have the pieces to make that happen. Would they want Willingham (they love veteran sluggers), or Span (more useful in the OF)? We've seen them take Torii off our hands in the past (as a free agent), so it's not impossible.

Hey, I give credit to Nishioka for being a man, as far as THIS organization is concerned and recognizing that he wasn't going to do anything over here except hold the organization hostage for $3 million+, which, contractually, he had every right to do. I think it also puts a different perspective on this whole chapter for Twins fans, or at least it should. If Nishioka had come over on a one-year deal for $4 million, nobody would've cared that he sucked. It was the length of the deal and the fact that a failing team on a limited budget was going to have to pay this guy millions of dollars for a 2nd and 3rd year with no potential of ANYTHING to offer the big league club. Much like Gil Meche did a few years ago, he cut the team a break. I hope he finds success again back in Japan.

Totally agree. It's worth pointing out that while many of us beat up on Mauer's contract, the Twins arguably did more damage (for less gain) by their policy of giving extensions/new deals to several mediocre players like Blackburn, etc. They've done that short term with relievers like Capps too, though it would be rough to beat up on them too much since they let SEVERAL critical relief pitchers walk for bigger deals in the past few seasons (Guerrier, Crain, Nathan, etc.)

A batting title is "useful" to me insofar as other people think it is important, so it brings accolades to the Minnesota Twins and Joe Mauer. It's similar to a Gold Glove in that way (though, at least BA has a basis in statistics, instead of just reputation). I think that OPS is a good, balanced statistic that rewards contact hitting, plate patience, and power, and batting average is a useful component that goes into it. In and of itself, though, batting average doesn't tell me too much about how "dangerous" a hitter is. There's that line from Bull Durham talking about a handful of bloop base hits in the minors being the difference between a good average and a guy who will never sniff the majors. If Mauer wins the batting title, great. Nobody should disparage him for doing that. But I do like to point out that the same year Mauer fans were in a giant circle jerk over his first batting title (2006), the NL batting champ was Freddy Sanchez. Sanchez was also a solid contact hitter, but nobody considers him among the "elite hitters" in baseball. And Joe Mauer's offensive game, like it or not, is FAR more similar to 2006 Freddy Sanchez than it is to Miguel Cabrera or Mike Trout. It's a good to be "good" at anything statistically, but take it only for what it's worth.

I love how the stats guys tell us that OPS is a great stat, and how it's a much better stat than batting average, etc., etc.....until we talk about Mauer. When it comes to MAUER, what REALLY matters is his on-base percentage. So the fact that Mauer has the 24th best OPS in baseball (behind David Murphy, Aaron Hill, Josh Willingham, Allen Craig, in a GOOD Mauer year (as in, one where he's fully healthy and doing what Mauer does every year besides 2009) at $24 million a year shouldn't concern us, right? I mean, crap, Ian Desmond and Dexter Fowler are 27th and 28th on that list. I'm not saying Mauer's not a good player. Yes, he's an on-base machine. But you can't cut out the bad parts of the narrative just to make your point. You can't marvel at all his walks while ignoring that his outstanding contact rate and plate patience still add up to 2nd- or 3rd-tier hitter when combined with his very average extra base hit totals. And much like the Trout versus Cabrera debate, you need to also figure in the fact that he's now a below-average defender at catcher, and a part-time catcher at that (11% caught stealing rate, has actually gone UP as of late).

Dick and Bert aren't really that "homerish". I actually think that MLB, in general, doesn't suffer from this problem compared to many NFL and NHL broadcast teams I can think of (though the NFL would be more radio, since there aren't "local" NFL TV crews). I'm not always a fan of Dick Bremer but I did rewatch the highlight of the Parmelee triple several times just to hear this call: "Driven to center field..." (Dead air) (Ball goes over Granderson and hits wall) (Dead air) "Baby needs a new pair of shoes!" Ah, the stuff you come up with at the end of a 90+ loss season.

Re: Caroll and Willingham having similar WAR's.....Hahahahahaha "WAR....HUH!.....what is it good for....absolutely nothing..,"

I was of the opinion that Morneau should be traded if you could get even a B-minus level prospect for him and clear the money for next year, BUT... It is only one season's worth of salary, and knowing and listening to Terry Ryan, I'm not so sure we can assume that $14 million would go towards free agent players of any substance, and especially rotation guys. If they did trade Morneau for a borderline prospect, and it turns out that they sign one Jason Marquis-type starter for next season and then either sit on the rest of the money or do something like picking up Matt Capps' option or doing a one-year deal with Baker, how would you feel about giving up Morneau then? Because I think any of those are more likely than seeing the Twins commit more than $30 or $40 million to any starting pitcher. Plus, of course, Morneau's contract being traded only clears up a small portion of that salary, and only for one year. It's likely this team cuts salary even more next year, based on performance and attendance declines.

Haven't actually done legends club, but I did the roof deck, and it's a bit disappointing if you actually want to SEE the game. It's more of a group hang-out and I like the personal bar up there, but you can't even see the action unless you're on the edge.

Left-handed! D'oh. I'm all for thinking out of the box, but let's be real here.

I don't think anyone has any scientific evidence when they talk about post-TJ workloads. Can anyone even name a pitcher that needed Tommy John twice? There are a few rare exceptions, but it's not like these guys are having surgery and then having the procedure failing on them 2 yrs later. It almost doesn't happen. Still, this is a non-issue for the Twins next year because I would be fairly surprised if we're in a pennant race AND Gibson is a big reason we're in it. People forget that the Nationals WERE babying Strasburg's arm before he got hurt, and it still happened. I'm not a big fan of 100+ pitch counts on a regular basis, but there does come a point where healthy pitchers just need to pitch. But if there's nothing for the team to gain in 2013, sure, limit his innings if it makes you feel better.

Interesting comparison. I think there are a few differences, though - for one thing, Ka'aihue looked the part of an MLB slugger. 6'4", 235 lb with unquestioned strength, and 4 years of Triple-A Omaha where he absolutely mashed the ball (though undoubtedly with a lot of K's and other holes in his swing). But he was also a 15th round draft pick, and the organization knew that either Billy Butler or Eric Hosmer was going to be their 1B of the future. Ka'aihue did get a cup of tea in the majors and didn't look all that great, but he's still only been in a grand total of 126 MLB games. But yes, more likely than not, he is a prototypical "4-A" player. Slama doesn't look the part of an MLB reliever, or even a successful AAA reliever, for that matter. You can look at Ka'aihue and imagine him hitting 30 HR's, albeit with a terrible average, but you can't look at a sub-90 mph fastball and imagine Slama having a 9.00 K/9. Yet, the success is there, and very consistently so in AAA baseball. And unlike Ka'aihue, it's not like you have to take playing time away from Billy Butler or Eric Hosmer to put Anthony Slama in the Twins bullpen. You simply have to remove a Jeff Gray-type reliever and give Slama a bunch of mopup time in meaningless games to get some prolonged sense of whether his "stuff" works on real hitters or not. That's what makes it so frustrating in the case of Slama that they haven't done that - nobody can tell what the downside is, even if the upside may not be all that great.

My thoughts on Revere have evolved a little bit as he's continued to evolve as a ballplayer. But make no mistake - we're seeing basically what his ceiling is already. His defensive range is very good, and it's not going to get any better. His arm keeps him from being a true elite defender, because baserunners round 2nd base at will on him when he's in RF, or even on a deep hit single to CF. As for his offense, he is very good at making contact when he swings, and his speed is going to make him more likely to beat out grounders than, say, Joe Mauer. But that's really where it ends for him. Juan Pierre is a great comparison - guy with CRAZY elite speed and a left handed bat that several teams tried to make into a leadoff hitter. Yet, despite a career .296 average, he's basically a .700 OPS hitter because of (a) the absolute lack of power; and ( the inability to take a lot of walks when pitchers aren't afraid to go right after you. Once you're in the majors, ( is the result of (a). It doesn't really matter if he has a great eye or not. Even in Mauer's case, while he certainly could be a more powerful hitter, pitchers do have in the back of their head that a meatball could end up being a double in the gap, or possibly even a homerun. Still, I think you have to keep Revere over Span because he's younger, cheaper, and more durable, and Span is never going to step it up for a career year where he plays 150+ games going forward. Unfortunately, I think other teams have figured that out also, but if you can get somebody to pick up that contract and give us anything useful in return, I really don't think Span's presence helps us in this lineup when Revere is an available alternative.

I'm not really following your logic here. Shortstops are evaluated as much for their glove as for their bat. To say that you're the #5 prospect in a bad organization might make you the 25th best prospect in a good organization. Escobar got a full AAA season in 2011 and struck out 104 times with little power. His appears fast on the basepaths, but that won't matter much with an OBP hovering around .300 the past few seasons, and a fairly terrible success rate on steals. Florimon, Dozier, and D. Santana are not proven MLB hitters either, so it doesn't mean much to compare them Escobar. However, we are seeing Florimon's defense in the bigs, and in my opinion, he's been pretty darn good. I think some other people share that opinion. I'm more worried about 2B, to be honest. I could live a SS who hits like Florimon (or even Dozier's numbers) if they were a plus defender. 2B is a position where you can find offensive value, except the Twins haven't. The organization has been generally terrible at finding middle infielders since...well, Knoblauch.

(Ugh, more WAR talk? I thought even the WAR apologists admit that it's pretty useless in the short-term, and can't compare full-season players to player who missed significant time from injury...) I think Span has a little bit of value, but the concussion history and general durability issues have to be taken into consideration. The good side of him is that he has 2 more years plus a team option on his deal, and it's a pretty reasonable deal compared to if you just went and signed a player on the FA market. But then there's the bad side. He'll be 29 at the start of next season, and 29 is actually starting to get old for a CF. Go to Yahoo or ESPN's depth chart and just start clicking around the league looking at CF - only the more elite CF'ers are starters into their 30's. Their either moved to a corner spot, or end up out of baseball if they can't hit. It seems absurd to think of Span as "old", but as CF'ers go, he'll be there soon. Also, he so bad at reading pickoff attempts that it basically neuters any effectiveness he might have as a basestealer. I just think it's dumb for the front office to resist rebuilding or the appearance of a rebuild, if the team is going to continue to win 60-70 games a year, which I believe it will for at least another year or two. It's not the concept of rebuilding fans hate, it's the LOSING. But if you're losing anyway, what's the point of offering a stagnant product with Carroll, Casilla, Morneau and Span to the fans? There are guys that can basically do Revere and Paremelee can basically do Span and Morneau's job now, at a fraction of the price. That's the harsh reality.

That's a great point. Sports fandom is all relative. I'm always going to watch some sporting events to some level, just like my wife will revert back to watching whatever TLC or random reality show she can find if she's bored. Since there's no competition in the summertime, baseball interest benefits disproportionate to how much people actually care about the sport. But if there's nothing interesting to "check into", I don't see a reason to check "out" of the Twins. Sure, the Vikings are only one game a week, so it's not like the game is taking away baseball interest. But the team is lackluster, I don't even care about the coverage of the Vikings. I'm not waiting all week with baited breath to hear which garbage cornerback we might cut, or when Jerome Simpson's suspension is over. And with the Gophers being terrible and the NHL lockout looming, I'm not really getting as excited for the other leagues as I'd like to be.

I really hope the "cheapness" aspect doesn't play into it. I don't think there's a ton of evidence for that since the younger Pohlads took over. The payroll has hovered around the 10th to 15th range in MLB, despite the fact the team hasn't won a single playoff series since 2002. And it's such a nominal amount of money compared to running the overall operation. Question: Does calling up a Hicks or Arcia start up their service time clock for arbitration/future salary purposes? I know that's a big deal for calling up guys prior to May 1st or June 1st, but I haven't heard that being discussed for September call-ups. I don't understand what we're doing if we don't call up at least a few of those guys. Think about how differently Parmelee gets viewed in the offseason if he didn't have the opportunity to come up in September and hit like he did. Yes, he got off to a slow start this year, but now he looks to be every bit a part of our plans going forward. We need these guys SOON, not later, and I don't understand the downside to giving them a taste of what is expected of them later on. In the case of Guerra, why the heck not? The guy was in the Santana deal prior to the 2008 season, and still hasn't seen an inning of garbage time in the bigs heading into 2013.

Yeah, I agree with all of this. In the case of Slama, I feel like time is just ticking away. Maybe this guy has just found some useful niche or trick to getting hitters out, in ways that defy traditional logic. People felt like that about Neshek when he came up, except there was a clearer explanation for that based on his unusual delivery. Well, Slama's pretty consistently gotten hitters out at an alarmingly effective rate, except he's been asked only to do that in AAA. I do disagree that most posters here assume Slama will be average. Slama's "stuff" is decidedly average, but his minor league results have been anything but. And until he gets an extended opportunity (even in mop-up ball) to try and fail, how can we make ANY assumptions about him? As for the call-ups, I think it's a real problem if you continue to fill out lineup cards with Jamey Carroll and Alexi Casilla BOTH in the lineup, when most people assume that the former will be here next year for sure, while the latter very likely may not. If that's the case, what are you trying to prove? We know what Casilla is - I happen to think he's undervalued as a utility player, but if the team decides to move on from him in favor of a Dozier or Florimon, then so be it. But those guys need to PLAY, and so do your other options. Carroll's never really played a full season as a starter anyway, and that's not what he was acquired for. I want to evaluate guys that could have a role here next year because I'm not so sure they'll go out and make another IF signing. Heck, if not Dozier, why not try Mastroianni at 2B in the bigs?

Nick, the gist of your article seems to be that Twins fans think the medical staff are "bad doctors". That is not what the criticism is. I think there's a cultural problem throughout the organization and when we say "medical staff", what we really mean is the interplay between the physicians, the players themselves, Gardenhire, and the front office as to how injuries are appropriately handled. I'd imagine that any highly-trained physician is predisposed to diagnose and fix problems as expediently as possible. With a Scott Baker situation, there's a gray area where you just don't how bad the damage is until they cut into his arm. Ultimately, the decision as to whether or not they can go in is Baker's, so maybe HE resisted, at his own expense. Reusse believed on the radio that Span's DL immediately before the 40-man roster expansion was meant as a punishment for not properly reporting his issues. I think the physicians and management are often at the mercy of the players to accurately report their symptoms. But I also think that the Twins as a whole perpetuated a culture of encouraging guys to play hurt, and celebrating the guys like Redmond, Punto, Cuddyer, Pavano, etc. who played hurt, even if they did so with terrible results. And to go along with that, the most prominent player on the team (Mauer) had several injury-plagued seasons where he was basically given free reign to let Gardenhire know on very short notice that he wasn't able to go that night. So is it right to punish guys like Span who essentially are doing exactly what it seems the Twins expect them to do, which is to play as much and complain as little as possible?