StormJH1

Given the number of teams those journeyman players have played for, that's probably less significant than it may seem. I disliked everything about that Expos franchise - that Nationals for all their faults are still a much better situation for an MLB team.

I heard that as well, and LaVelle convinced me to do a complete 180 as to how they will approach this next year. Particularly if Blackburn turns out to be hurt (or ineffective all year), what else are they going to do? Blackburn and Hendricks are their only starters under contract for 2013. I don't think they bring Pavano or Liriano back. You can't count on Kyle Gibson or anyone else to be automatically slotted into an MLB rotation for 2013, though it obviously could happen. Baker is young enough to recover from TJ surgery and be effective again as an MLB pitcher. While $9 million is too much for that type of risk, it's only one year. Realistically, do we think this team is going to go out and sign 3 free agent starting pitchers for next season? Even if they did, it's unlikely they'd be able to sign anybody worth being a #1, #2, or #3 starter. Baker is at least a "potential #2".

That's actually a great point. Delmon's a terrible outfielder, but he was also a RF'er/borderline DH when we got him from Tampa Bay. Gardy's love for Cuddyer forced him into LF, and Kubel wasn't exactly a great OF'er in his own right. There are plenty Twins players who would've been exposed if they had been forced to move to LF...Delmon was "awarded" that task, ironically, because he was thought to be a better athlete than some of the alternatives.

Okay, when I said there were better options in RF, Ben Revere was not one of them! Maybe I should take back what I said... Also, when I said that Doumit wasn't a "long-term" option, I didn't mean Opening Day 2015...I meant more like he won't even be healthy later this year, and his duties as relief catcher to Mauer mean that he'll never be a part of a regular rotation. Plouffe and Parmalee are two guys that could end up being better than Doumit in RF. Parmalee is busy with 1B, however, so that's not a current option. Joe Benson is another option, and probably superior to all of them defensively. Revere is NOT an option, for reasons we discussed in other threads. I think people are over-emphasizing Doumit's value as hitter. Yes, he's a experienced guy and he's good enough to get buy for a few weeks at a time, if need be. But other than last year's small sample size, he was a .250 hitter for the two years prior. He's never had 20 HR power, and you have to keep in mind that he'll mostly be getting at-bats as a left hander, so you can factor in Target Field and what that does to hitters who don't have "lighttower power". If this guy's in the .700 to .750 OPS range, his offense does not offset the terrible defense, sorry. That's acceptable for a backup catcher, but not a regular or even a platoon player in RF.

Thanks for posting the link, good resource. Food and beer prices there are brutal, but I think we all knew that going in. My wife and I have done Town Ball Brewery a few times because the concessions are basically the price of a sit-down restaurant, and it at least "feels" like more value to get there an hour early, eat, and have a drink. Other than a Surly, not sure any of the new items really appeal to me at those prices.

When Doumit was signed, it was mostly well-received by the fans for one reason: Drew Butera. People fixated on the fact that he was a backup catcher and hated that Butera got so many at bats last year. That's all well and good, but in practice, we're finding out that he may actually get into the lineup MORE often as a RF or DH while Mauer is healthy, and he's not our best option at either of those positions. I'm trying not to lose too much sleep over it at this point because I agree with the posters above that he will hit, to a degree. But I really hope somebody else takes a hold of that RF job and hits, because Doumit in RF is not any kind of long-term solution.

I loved the Willingham signing from Day One. This is above and beyond expected, but we should probably keep in mind that there will be stretches where he goes 0 for 12 with a bunch of strikeouts to balance out days like this. But that's a trade-off I'm absolutely willing to make...just think if we had more than one guy in the lineup really trying to attack the ball like he does. Happy about the win, if only because this was going to snowball if they didn't get an early victory. The schedule coming up is absolutely brutal.

This is a bizarre conference. If he needs Tommy John surgery, why is a presser necessary? What questions would/could Baker need to answer and listen to. Normally, they don't trot guys who have just gotten really bad news about injuries in front of the fans/media, unless there is some need to "explain" something. Don't have a good feeling, obviously.

Um, no. Can't imagine they would throw a press conference just to announce that Baker's going to rest a little more and then rehab. Then again, did they have press conferences to announce other pitchers needed Tommy John, etc. in the past?!

Did Bedard really sign for only a million. Jeez. Even if he's good for all of 90 innings, that guy has always been effective when healthy. To think we lost $800,000 giving Zumaya an audition...Bedard would've been our "staff ace", no question.

I was the one who threw the V-Mart comparison up there, and then seconded the criticism of WAR. You are right that this is a discussion about Mauer, not WAR, but you missed my point... I went back and read what you said. Your argument that my stats didn't support my argument (about V-Mart being a better hitter thus far) referenced his WAR stats on Baseball Reference. But I don't believe in WAR, and neither does USAFChief. Therefore, an argument that V-Mart is better than Mauer because of WAR, while not necessarily false, isn't going to have any impact on my opinion. That was the whole point of discussing the merits of WAR in the first place. I linked Baseball Reference because that's where I usually go for quick information and statistics. I was not relying on sabermetrics in my argument, and certainly not WAR. My basic argument was that Mauer and V-Mart have had similar career paths in many ways: - Both are catchers who broke into the league in the early 2000's (though V-Mart got a later start and is a couple of years older). - Both of them are rarities at their position - middle-of-the-order catchers frequently discussed as "elite" hitters - Both of their promising careers have been marred by recurring injury problems - Both of them have transitioned to 1B and DH as they approached 30 years old to keep their bats in the lineup, and avoid the daily rigors of catching And discussing the two of these similar careers as hitters, I felt that V-Mart's career average of .303 and an average of 20.16 HR per 162-game season is as valuable or more valuable than Mauer's averages of .323 and 14.76 HR's per full season. Which is also not to mention that Mauer's numbers are skewed heavily by a single year that he will almost certainly never replicate. Meanwhile, V-Mart has had five 20-HR seasons, despite all of his injury problems. Yes, Mauer has a higher career OPS (again, smaller sample and skewed by '09). And yes, I'm leaving out defense, which was a strong point of Mauer's game, and an advantage in his favor. However, I feel that there was a point around the 2010 All-Star game (where he missed 2B with a throw by about 20 feet) after which his defense has been very average. Also, of course, Mauer's contract did not start until 2011, and he's not going to be a full-time catcher pretty much from now on. My point is not that Mauer is not a very good player...he certainly is. But when you ask questions like "is he worth $184 million", or is he truly an "elite" hitter in today's game, those questions require a much higher degree of scrutiny. And unless you expect everything about Mauer's health, production, and approach to change in his 30's, I don't believe he will be have been statistically more valuable as a hitter than someone like V-Mart, looking back on their careers.

No. Why does you need Morneau to play 1st base at this point? Nostalgia? Does it give you warm and fuzzy memories of 2006? The offense has been terrible through 4 games, but that has nothing to do with the decision to DH Morneau. Putting Morneau at 1B does nothing but free up the DH spot for somebody else, and none of them are going to be better options than Parmalee at this point. If Parmalee had an "awful" year, he could still hit 10 HR's with a crappy average. Are you going to get that from Ben Revere? I certainly don't want it to be Doumit, and Gardy wants him more as an emergency fill in at 3 positions anyway - if he DH's regularly, he can't come in and play a position. Morneau's last setback occurred on a defensive play that involved no contact. I don't even want concussions to be on Morneau's mind right now. He needs to focus on getting his swing and timing back without wondering if that last dive for a groundball or the accidental collision covering 1B might have just ended his career. So far, so good with his hitting, IMO. There was a play Parmalee made where he dove down the line, and I wasn't the only one who saw that and wondered "Crap, what would we be thinking if that were Morneau?"

USAFChief nailed why I think WAR is basically useless. It's "overanalytical" (too complex of a formula with inconsistent methodology) and "lazy" (attempting to explain everything about a player with one useful number) at the same time. But we're a bit off track with all the WAR talk... I understand that we are "overemphasizing the long ball", but as Game 163 of the 2008 season showed (the Thome HR for the White Sox), hitting the ball over the wall is the one place the defense can't catch it. Also, if you hit a lot of balls to the warning track and beyond, you may end up with a lot of doubles even if a lot of those balls don't leave the yard. You will almost never end up with a double trying to but the ball on the ground or hitting a lazy liner with runners on base. WAR may not be a good stat, but I do believe in OPS. OPS even figures in walks, which should benefit Mauer because selectiveness at the plate is supposedly one of his strong points. And .729 last year is not going to cut it. (Bill James defines "average" as .700 to .766). But in years where his HR total has been below 10, he has managed OPS's in the .860 to .880 range, such as 2008 and 2010. I think those the seasons are the "real Mauer". But that is not the Mauer we paid for. We'd have to be crazy to expect .365/.444/.587 every year, but I don't think it was unreasonable to pay him $184 million on the assumption that (a) He could be a .300 hitter with 20 HR's or so for several seasons to come; and ( that keeping him with the new ballpark was absolutely necessary for marketing reasons. I'm not going to overreact too much to 2011, and I'll give him a chance to get back to that "2010" type level. But I'm afraid that 2009 Mauer is much like 2006 Liriano - an amazing anomaly that we hope for, but will never see again.

Wait, isn't that the same as not having a left fielder?

@Riverbrian - I will defer to your expertise in market demographics. My goal was not to be a troll or prove necessarily that the Twins are a "small market", "mid-sized market" or whatever. I don't think it matters. As JB_Iowa pointed out, there are so many other factors that determine cash flow, and when you get to the question of the ballclub's budget, ticket revenue and the personal wealth of the owners (and willingness to risk a loss on the product) are much more important factors than sheer availability of people that could potentially watch games on TV, buy merchandise, or pay for tickets. My point was more to the effect that it doesn't matter. The Twins would not have cut $12 to $15 million off their budget if (a) they had performed significantly better than a 99-loss season; and ( if spending the additional money would have made any significant difference in their 2012 outcome. All I am saying is that to the extent people assume that the extra money necessarily would have made this team better, and that's not the case. The 2007 Tigers went from an 88-win team to an 88-loss team in 2008 by INCREASING their payroll from $95 million to $137 million in one offseason. In any event, I think we arguing the same thing on that point...

Exactly, and see my other comments above. There isn't even a uniform definition of how you calculate WAR (BP and other sources use different methods), so you can't even say "WAR" and know what it means... Moreover, the scale of evaluating players is so narrow that it's basically useless. (I've had a similar complaint about faceoff percentages in hockey...even the best of the best are around 59% often, which tells you that it's basically a 50/50 crapshoot on any given play). Take the 2011 Twins. So, according to FanGraphs, Michael Cuddyer was the best Twins player (3.1). Okay. Span was next (2.2) and Revere after him (2.0). Excuse me?! So, according to WAR, Revere was better than Mauer last year when he played. Oh yeah...and the grand difference in "wins" for the entire year for having Mauer as your catcher versus Drew Butera is about 2 wins. So, no, not a very useful stat.

I might not have stated clearly enough what I was getting at. My sense from the supporters of the contract is that they look at 2009 in the Metrodome and expect him to return to that level in future seasons, which are the ones covered by the bulk of this contract. My point is that Mauer turns 29 in a couple of weeks, and it really isn't realistic to expect him to improve significantly upon his game at this point. Mauer's breakout season was as a 26 year old in 2009. The "perfect storm" referenced by the other poster (great description) was the combination of the new ballpark, the associated expansion of the budget (from about 60 million to 100 million or more), and the timing of Mauer's free agency. Yes, I was happy that they got the deal done too. I was happy because .365 with 28 HR's and an 1.031 OPS was one of the greatest seasons in baseball history, and it was believed that Mauer had developed in his strength and his willingness to attack the ball as hitter. But the reality is that 2009 was an absolute aberration. His 2007 and 2008 seasons are very similar statistically to what he did in 2010 and 2011. Good average, impressive production for a catcher, but no interest in driving the ball, and a focus on "avoiding outs" instead of trying to make a more significant impact on the game, which is what you ask of a superstar player. I'm not interested in WAR as a sabermetric tool either, sorry. I'm not opposed to all advanced metrics, but any statistic that claims you can tell how good a player is by measuring difference in a a couple of WINS over the course of a 162-game season when Joe Mauer is only 1/9 of a baseball lineup is garbage. As for Mauer vs. Puljos, I'm not at all convinced the Puljos contract is worse. Does anyone here seriously think that Puljos, who just helped St. Louis win a second World Series last season won't be an immediate impact bat in the middle of the lineup for any team he played for until he's at least 35 or 36? Even if his skills decline dramatically after that, it's not at all unreasonable to think he could be a impact power bat as a DH into his early 40's, the way that Thome was. Mauer isn't even that guy NOW, and he's in the prime of his career. His durability is nowhere near what Puljos' has been. And Mauer's skills will decline also, except a 36-year old DH who hits .275 with 5 HR's a year (instead of the .300 hitter with 8-12 HR's a year he averages now) has virtually no value. I think Puljos is more valuable as a 32-37 year old than Mauer is from age 28-33, and if LAA wins a single World Series out of it, the results would be hard to argue with.

Noticed that also, but didn't think too much of it. It's not like they only had star players, they had one for everyone (The Butera one was prominently displayed on Washington Avenue where I would go for work frequently, haha). But if there's a good chance a lot of these guys may not be on the team later in the year, perhaps they didn't want the time and effort of changing them all out.

I don't mind Torii. I think he's a good guy at heart. Does he open his mouth and spout off stupid comments occasionally about the Twins or comments such as baseball being akin to "slavery"? Yes, but he was also one of the more beloved Twins for a fan base that had almost a decade of interaction with him. Lots of players leave in free agency (Fielder, Cliff Lee, Halladay). While I was sad when it happens, the Twins made him a legitimate offer, and he decided to move on. He basically became a right fielder anyway a year into the deal, so much like the Santana thing, it really didn't end up being as big of a loss as it "felt" at the time.

The guy from Grand Forks is telling us that the Twins don't have any fans in areas outside of the metro?! I think you have it exactly backwards. While the "North Country" isn't a particularly populated area, you have to go pretty far in any direction to run into another city with an MLB team. By contrast, states like Florida, NY, TX, and California have multiple teams. And if you live somewhere like Detroit, drive one hour south and you're in Ohio, and most people are Indians fans. The Twins don't have another centralized fan base in a "major city", but they are followed by a decent number of people in the Dakotas, Iowa, and even western Wisconsin. And regardless of that entire argument, they still spent $100 million on players this year, which is plenty of money to compete. They just haven't spent the money WELL.

I think the point is that even the people who thought the contract could be a okay value for the Twins knew that the prime value of that contract would be in his 29-32 year old seasons. Nobody looks at a Josh Willingham or Michael Cuddyer at age 33 and expects them to suddenly take their game to the "next level". People understand that they are on the other side of their prime and will do well to simply maintain their current level of play for a few more years. Mauer is only a couple of seasons away from that point, yet all we ever hear is how he's going to be better later on. But he's already transitioning away from being a "full-time catcher" (which is the right approach), which means we really should be thinking about him as a first baseman. We're so hard on Mauer because he's our guy, and greatness was expected of him. But compare his career so far to, say, Victor Martinez, and I'm sorry, but V-Mart's career is far superior: http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/martivi01.shtml Both have had their share of injury problems, as do many catchers, but when he played, V-Mart was a consistent .300 hitter, but a constant power threat in the middle of the lineup. It isn't about the "legs" or Target Field - Mauer isn't "overswinging". His approach is to put the ball into play making contact at all costs, and that leads to a lot of ground balls and opposite field liners. Which, yes, can lead to a .300 season, but also makes him fairly worthless as a #3 hitter.

While you are right from a business standpoint that payroll could have been increased, the problem isn't that we "only" have $100 million to work with...it's the composition of the roster. That Mauer and Morneau's struggles have eaten up a big chunk of that is well documented. But the real problem is the farm system, or lack thereof. Sano, Arcia, and a few others give hope for the future, but literally nothing of significant long-term value has come up since Liriano. And when team after team succeeds in the playoffs with a budgets very close to what the Twins now have, it's often because their overall salary budget is being deflated by young players who haven't gotten paid yet. You CAN succeed with Mauer and Morneau making all that money, even if Mauer and Morneau are missing time with injury, but it would need to be supplemented with cheap young talent performing at a Joey Votto or Matt Cain level BEFORE those guys have put in enough time to warrant a long-term deal. Simply put, the Twins felt that they had a superior philosophy and enough core players that they could draft "safe" year after year, and they were wrong. Now, our entire rotation has virtually zero power arms, and the only guys that move through the ranks are average prospects like Valencia, or guys with extremely limited ceilings, such as Revere. (Note: Span was nearly an exception to this rule, but he was actually drafted way back in '02 and withheld until he was "over-ripe"...plus his performance/injury problems the past few years question whether he will actually be an above-average player going forward) My point is, I don't think that another 10 - 15 million on top of what we already have makes this a SIGNIFICANTLY better team if that money is just spent through free agency. Yes, a Puljos or Fielder signing would have made an impact, but that was never going to happen for a number of reasons, and those guys cost $20 million + per year. They could have pursued a Cliff Lee or C.J. Wilson (and yes, I really wish we had something resembling an "ace"), but what about the other four starts? And the anemic defense and hitting? I think management saw the writing on the wall, knew that they couldn't "spend their way to .500" this season, and recognized that luck and good health with several key players were going to make a bigger difference this year than anyone they could have reasonably tried to acquire.

If this on-pace for a 100-loss season, as hard as it is to believe, I'd have to agree with John. And the irony of it is that there's nothing Gardy can really do, is there? Gardy has plenty of faults, and I'm sure we'll point them out real-time all year. But this roster is severely deficient in many ways, especially pitching, and we all knew it coming into the year. Gardy's in a situation where there are guys he's going to have to keep penciling in and just hope for the best. Mauer's a guy like that, obviously, but even when Mauer is "bad", he usually can perform at a better than average level for a catcher. Pavano scares the hell out of me, and I shudder to think of what value we could have gotten for Liriano after 2010, because that guy is never going be consistent enough to be a front-line starter. The odds are certainly against a mid-season firing, but this will be one ugly summer if we're well below .500 by mid-August again. It could happen. The Twins definitely need a culture change, but a lot of the nitpicky things I don't like about Gardenhire and the core of this team aren't significant enough to explain performance THIS bad.

I LOVE the At-Bat app for Apple devices. They did make it "universal" this year, which means it works on iPad, iPhone, etc. all on the same account for one price. I had it on BlackBerry for a couple of years, and it was nice to have, but since the phones suck, this is at least 3 times better. Granted, much of the content (game highlights, box scores, etc.) is available on computers for free. Doesn't matter. The app works great and allows you to follow the games as they happen. You get the radio feeds for ALL games (including in-market), which is nice for smartphones. Plus, the "free game of the day" is pretty damn cool. Yes, it's randomly selected, but I've already been exposed to some NL teams, etc. that I basically never see on TV.

Totally agree with the "Mauer sucks as a leader" angle...but with this roster, what would be the end goal? Do you expect our staff "ace" to strike out more than 120 guys in 200 innings? Is Liriano suddenly going to stop losing his control if he "tries harder". Is Morneau going to "suck it up" and pretend like his concussions and four surgeries last year didn't happen? My fear is that this IS pretty close to the Twins potential. Obviously, they could hit a little better. Mauer and Morneau can drive some balls into the gap with regularity, even if it isn't fully realistic to expect consistent power from either of them right now. Willingham can hit one in the stands every few games. But beyond that....what? Is Liam Hendricks going to rip off his hospital arm band and start fanning guys like Brandon Beachy? Is either Casilla or Carroll going to decide that "Whoops, I'm actually a power hitter now!"? You look at other "bad" teams like the Mariners, and you see the potential for breakout seasons. It's "possible" Jesus Montero blows up and hits 30HR's this year. Or that Danny Hultzen gets called up and wins like 12 games with a 9.00 K/9 rate. Or that Dustin Ackley plays like Chase Utley of a few years ago. This Twins team isn't "underripe"...this is actually a team composed of players already in their prime, or beyond it. And that's the reason for panic.