tony&rodney
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Everything posted by tony&rodney
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The task was impossible almost and in the end proved to be too much: Blake Snell, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tyler Glasnow, and Shohei Ohtani with Roki Sasaki closing. Those 4 starting pitchers are @$170M per year of superb talent. The Dodgers are really good and play excellent baseball. MLB set up this Frankenstein. We may as well enjoy their skills.
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Arbitrary Thoughts: Joe Ryan
tony&rodney replied to Sherry Cerny's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
They both had pretty good years. A few of us on TD were pounding the table for a trade to pry loose Teel last winter. The two Sox got together though. I believe the White Sox are solid in their view that their team needs both players and I cannot envision any trade that brings either guy to the Twins. That ship has sailed. I'm still hopeful for some magic to acquire a couple of guys who are ready but blocked: Harry Ford and Jeferson Quero. The magical question is whether the Mariners and/or the Brewers would even listen and also whether the Twins are willing to pay the price if it is a possibility. I'm hopeful only because I never give up.- 51 replies
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For a while one could type in "minus AI", but that hasn't been reliable lately so one needs to be very careful in searches because AI is, in fact, killing.
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Arbitrary Thoughts: Bailey Ober
tony&rodney replied to Sherry Cerny's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Bailey Ober is a really good pitcher. Most pitchers get injured. Ober was injured quite a bit in 2025. He is a solid mid to back end rotation pitcher. There are bound to be a number of teams looking to buy low on Ober. If the right offer is put on the table the Twins should move him, but he is also a good guy to have around in 2026 if there isn't a fair offer. I believe people underestimate Ober and also think he would benefit from better defenders behind him.- 28 replies
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Benge is the best bat prospect. He is pretty good, but it is fair to say the Twins have enough LH bats currently and more as prospects: Wallner, Larnach, Rodon, Jenkins, Rodriguez, Outman, and Mendez. Even if you do not like 5 of those guys it still leaves the Twins with enough LH bats in the outfield. The other Met bats are mostly utility types or extreme risks. The Twins have a boatload of pitching prospects/young starting pitchers: Woods Richardson, Matthews, Festa, Bradley, Abel, Morris, Culpepper, Rojas, Prielipp, Hill, Soto, and so forth. The best Met prospect is McLean, who will not be dangled. Tong and Sproat are decent prospects but would not fill the needs of the Twins or even rise above what is already present. I don't see a single Met position prospect to put in the lineup with confidence or be really excited about for 2027. The Mets have a very good organization, team, and prospects but the Twins need to look elsewhere for their match.
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That reporting actually covered themselves by stating that all of Detroit's offers were from 2024, before he won the Cy Young last season. It was a confusing read, even looked at from 3 sources. Detroit has not formulated an offer in more than 15 months supposedly (speculation on reporter's part to an extent). The unknown is whether the son will replay the work of his father and put a room full of gold in front of Skubal. There will be piles of articles speculating .... 3/$150M .... 8/$320M, and so forth. The teams with money need to go on with their plans. The Twins will like it if he pitches for a NL team. I'm not thinking we should worry about Skubal.
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The Twins match up better with other teams. Minnesota needs position players, not more pitching prospects. Additionally, MN is flush with LH outfield prospects / players. They need to fill 3-5 positions closer to the plate. There is no doubt this will be challenging but somebody might have their job on the line and be willing to gamble a bit. Only the guys in charge determine what is "entirely unreasonable', but I don't think McLean is in play. I agree with you that McLean, Benge, and another piece or two isn't happening, which is why the Twins aren't calling New York. There are a number of teams that need players though and we will wait to see what plays out.
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Detroit has one player to pay at this time, Javy Baez. The Tigers can and will put forth an impressive offer. Skubal may choose to go to free agency, which is likely. The Tigers are not going into a rebuild. Detroit already has in place better players/prospects than can be offered by just about any team. I would shocked if Skubal was traded during this offseason. Many things can occur to lead to an impasse where Skubal is traded in late July. My money is on Detroit retaining Skubal until next July at a minimum. I think they are much more likely to be looking for a few pieces to add, including a guy like Joe Ryan.
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People can and have debated endlessly about what is an ace. That aside, I just don't see the Mets as a real conversation for Ryan. I agree they are not trading Alvarez or McLean but the others are good supplementary players (which is not the target) or similar to guys the Twins already have in their organization. The Twins do not need quantity. I don't envision any reason to talk with the Mets. I like the Mets team and their prospects. I just don't believe they match up. FWIW, the Mets just don't have the upside in players or prospects for Skubal or at least not at all what the Tigers need. The Tigers are close and should add a top pitcher to chase for a crown in 2026. Something drastic would need to occur for the Tigers to be trading at the deadline. They had an enormous number of injuries this year and were close. The Mets will need to look to free agency for answers. The Twins will need to find a match elsewhere.
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Iowa is a scary place. That aside, most MLB owners are making money. Only the Atlanta Braves books are available because they are a publicly traded corporation. Thus it is hard to know how the owners will vote. It was the owners who gave the Dodgers special financial considerations in the first place which created their current empire, back when the Dodgers filed for bankruptcy in the manner that many corporations do. There are likely a few franchises losing money but none will open the books. Do you think the owners making money, which is the majority, will vote to cast away their profits in an attempt to crush the MLBPA? That doesn't seem how billionaires operate to me. I expect quite a bit of posturing with talking heads making public pronouncements about this and that. A lockout that wipes out games in April seems possible, but I really doubt there are any moves that endanger baseball later than that. Rich people never have enough money. Slaughtering a golden goose never creates more wealth. You can keep the keep the land in Iowa but don't bother planting soybeans in the next 10 years. The farmers bet on the wrong horse.
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Arbitrary Thoughts: Joe Ryan
tony&rodney replied to Sherry Cerny's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Q#1. What team stands to benefit the most by acquiring Joe Ryan? Q#2. What players from Q#1 team's organization are the best players for the Twins as a return in a deal? Q#3. Can any of us submit a fair suggestion?- 51 replies
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Misiorowski was a Round 2 pick (#63) and Yesavage was a Round 1 (#20) pick. The draft is difficult to project. Paul Skenes was a consensus #1 pick but the general rule is to pick the best player regardless of position. From there it is a little bit of luck and a lot of development. I'm hoping the Twins pick a Robin Yount or Dave Winfield clone. Then again, I'm greedy.
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Everyone is going to have ideas. Some people will have ideas that might benefit their second favorite team. The Mets don't seem too likely to give up all of McLean, Benge, and Tong or their power hitting young catcher in a trade for Joe Ryan and the Twins should not necessarily be looking for more pitching prospects. So it doesn't look like the Mets are a good match to me. I'm not at all interested in Jet Williams either. As has been stated numerous times elsewhere, the Twins need to be smart about any transaction involving Joe Ryan. Position players are their primary need and thus it is on to the next idea now. 28 clubs to go.
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There are similarities between the Boston acquisition of Crochet and how a team would approach a trade for Ryan. Maybe it is naive but there would probably be conversations with Ryan about his willingness to sign a long term contract with a team if traded. Taking a look at various contracts handed out to starting pitchers, it seems highly probable that there are a number of teams willing to put money into a guy like Ryan. Joe Ryan is a top 10 starting pitcher or if you are feeling grumpy a top 20 fellow. Some people have wondered if Joe Ryan will want to have more control of where he pitches, which is possible. That would complicate matters somewhat but there are some reasonable possibilities with teams in the AL and NL West if that is the case. Pretty sure the phone calls and texts will be busy in November and December. I'm hopeful of an early decision one way or the other.
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Arbitrary Thoughts: Joe Ryan
tony&rodney replied to Sherry Cerny's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
This is a fair point, which may be countered by other decisions as well as looking at the poor rosters of the last two years. Keeping in mind that Falvey & friends did acquire Ryan and some other solid players, I do think one must accept the current reality of the organization and hope he pulls off some good deals that improve the overall talent. Your point (the trade for Ryan) needs to be acknowledged.- 51 replies
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Arbitrary Thoughts: Joe Ryan
tony&rodney replied to Sherry Cerny's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
It all boils down to keeping Ryan with whatever risk of injury is exists, declining value possibility, potential to trade later, or being satisfied with a draft choice pick in July of 2028. Well, the Twins could put out $138-150M to sign Ryan long term. Any trade should target the best player that can be returned to help the Twins. Targeting a specific position reduces the possibilities and the Twins have exactly one position player, Byron Buxton, who is an established player that the team can more or less count on in the next two years. Falvey and his crew have not left many people feeling confidant in his ability, but he is in charge so we will all have to hope for the best decisions.- 51 replies
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Arbitrary Thoughts: Joe Ryan
tony&rodney replied to Sherry Cerny's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I think many of us see your range (3-5 years) tacked on to the two years remaining (for a total in the 5-7 years) as a hopeful signing. It also would be quite odd given the numerous changes made in July, but it could happen. The total for the next 6 years would approach $138-150M to keep Joe Ryan. Considering the comments from ownership about money, this seems out of range at this time. One thing is certain - the Twins need to make a really good move either way on Joe Ryan. Is waiting 6 months to a year even an option?- 51 replies
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I do think there is a realization that the Twins need a new identity. The team was really more fun to watch in September and you knew they would lose too. The last couple of years the team was pretty painful playing baseball, particularly on defense, on the bases, and hitting with runners on base. I'm stuck on a question though - Can Falvey and his office mates identify the players needed to turn things around? We are all guessing on payroll but a ceiling of $120M sounds realistic with a likely range of $90-120M. I'm guessing the middle, $100-110M. This is enough to field a decent team, but it goes back to what players are acquired for the roster. Let's face it, Byron Buxton is the only sure thing on the roster. Everyone else is combinations of promise, hope, and personal beliefs. Eventually the organization will need to determine whether their top prospects have the skills to play at the top level. At some point the team will need to make decisions based on consistent performance. Let's hope the acquisitions and decisions bring about a better overall product.
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Arbitrary Thoughts: Joe Ryan
tony&rodney replied to Sherry Cerny's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
MLBTRumors has Ryan at $5.8M for next year, which means a $12M salary for the following year is likely near an the next expected figure. Indeed, money is not a factor in any way, fashion, or means in a discussion about Joe Ryan. The story this winter will be what he can return if traded. From comments on this site we learn that BBTV has Ryan around 47 in value while various players of interest carry higher numbers. My sense is that several teams will value Ryan much, much higher. If the Twins do trade Ryan, the player coming back needs to be a regular in the lineup who can make a difference for the Twins. Why would any team trade such a player? The reason is usually because their team already has coverage in place and need a fellow like Ryan. It should be interesting. The Twins do not need to trade Ryan, so any deal should be clearly worthwhile. As fans we know there are always risks.- 51 replies
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Clarification. Signing Ryan this offseason for 6 years would include the next two, so four years beyond his remaining arb time. That was my intent. There is almost zero chance Ryan signs after next season. When players get to their opportunity for free agency they almost always take it. The Twins can keep Ryan for two more years.
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We all have ptsd from the past season combined with the last several years of roster builds. Kreidler might be a real gentleman but we see this move and have real thoughts ..... Is this the big offseason move? Something is rotten in the state of Minnesota Twins fandom. What is our limit?
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- ryan kreidler
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