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drivlikejehu

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Everything posted by drivlikejehu

  1. drivlikejehu
    The whole point of computer projections is objectivity. They use historical precedent to establish a baseline of expectations. In any individual case, the model may fit poorly, but criticizing a projection on that basis makes no sense at all. Regardless, there is no method of analysis that shows the Twins in a positive light for 2014. They aren't even close to an average club on paper. Pretty much everything has to go right for a run at .500, which certainly would be nice but isn't exactly a world-beating accomplishment.
  2. drivlikejehu
    That might just be semantics- if you try to get his bat into the lineup against LHP, he's more of a platoon player than a utility player, based on how I use the terms. And if he doesn't regularly play against LHP, he's a waste of a roster spot, because of the defense issues.
  3. drivlikejehu
    Plouffe's defensive limitations are not a great fit for the utility role.
  4. drivlikejehu
    Baseball teams have extremely high rates of player turnover, so comparing corporate chemistry to the 25-man roster is prima facie invalid. Certainly personal characteristics have to be considered on some level, but because so few people are capable of playing Major League Baseball, organizations do not have a ton of discretion in this area. The field staff (and front office) are a different story, since they are much more easily replaceable and turn over at a lesser rate.
  5. drivlikejehu
    Well that's actually not a correct understanding of "irony," but it's moot to begin with: I never assessed his competency. In fact, I quite specifically said I was unable to do so. Is misconstruing posts a violation of TD policy?
  6. drivlikejehu
    I didn't "assess" his "specific skill sets." We don't have enough to go on. If that ended all conversation, this board and all the ones like it would close immediately. We do know that he's another Twins lifer who started as a PR intern and has spent the bulk of his career in that department. We know that, at last check, he was ignorant of common baseball statistics. Has he shown a particular gift for negotiating contracts? I see no evidence of it. The Twins' insular culture is interesting in the context of Coase-inspired firm theory- there is no objective or empirical justification for it. The only plausible reason a firm would behave this way is to protect mediocrity, which to the outside world is justified as "loyalty."
  7. drivlikejehu
    No, I don't think that's a credible number of runs/wins. It's very much a minority view among sabremetrics people that the impact is that large. The effect is real, but at this point I don't think anyone has a good handle on how to measure the importance of it.
  8. drivlikejehu
    Age-wise I think he'd be around average. I'm not excited with him as future GM... seems like Bill Smith 2.0.
  9. drivlikejehu
    The Twins still have one of the worst rotations in MLB. Deduno is a non-entity... it's like a baseball form of Stockholm Syndrome around here- fans going nuts over AAAA pitchers that don't belong on a 75 win team (not that the Twins are that good yet). And getting excited about having a bunch of AAAA pitchers hanging around... how wonderful.
  10. drivlikejehu
    We can look back at how many teams were willing to offer that kind of money to Sabathia and Santana, as a starting point. There weren't very many. I'm confident that all 30 would take Sano as of today. The reason is straightforward - once a team had Sano, they would easily be able to trade him for Price, or Cliff Lee, or another top starter if they so chose. Price is a commodity that only is an option for a handful of clubs. Sano is a commodity that everyone wants, which offers much more flexibility (and thus potential utility).
  11. drivlikejehu
    The problem is that you need to establish the terms of Price's contract. Without an extension, all 30 take Sano, no question. With a reasonable extension, 25 or so take Sano, but of course we don't have enough information to make a precise estimate. Some posters have been looking forward and assuming Sano comes up and establishes himself as a top young player. In that instance, all 30 would again prefer Sano, without a doubt.
  12. drivlikejehu
    The Twins probably aren't the only ones worried about Garza's health. His ultimate contract might be less than expected for that reason, and might be the main reason he's in the Twins price range to begin with. So if that's an issue the Twins are right to be cautious. I don't really get the Pelfrey thing, but the money isn't a big deal and he's at least better than Diamond and the other AAAA types.
  13. drivlikejehu
    The most valuable commodity in baseball is cost-controlled impact talent. Teams essentially never trade players in that category unless they are about to be free agents. Sano at $500,000 is, by a massive, huge, gargantuan amount, more valuable than Price at $25 million. It's not even close or subject to any possible debate.
  14. drivlikejehu
    Sorry, but when an idea has so little merit (zero), it tends to deserve a briefer response.
  15. drivlikejehu
    Pitchers are riskier than position players. That's just a fact. Trading Sano for a pitcher would be utterly insane. The chances of it happening are literally zero. You may as well speculate on the odds Joe Mauer is moved to shortstop.
  16. drivlikejehu
    Trade all-star 3B for "ace." Ace blows out shoulder. Franchise toast for 10 years. Sign me up.
  17. drivlikejehu
    Sano would not bring back a cost-controlled ace starter, so it's a moot discussion. And the Twins need position players almost as much as they need pitchers anyway. It's borderline trolling to suggest he should be dealt, honestly.
  18. drivlikejehu
    Not only did the 28 other clubs pass on making a better offer (not hard to do), but the Rockies are not a very inspiring auction winner- their front office is making all kinds of weird decisions recently and has to deal with the fact free agent pitchers avoid Colorado like the plague.
  19. drivlikejehu
    The Twins might just be hanging around to see if they can get him at a reasonable price - injury concerns and the draft pick could limit the market for Drew. Plus the Indians are open to trading Cabrera, and there aren't a ton of teams shopping for a SS. Financially, it's the same story as it has been- the Twins have plenty of payroll space and no one internally will be getting a big raise in the next 3 years.
  20. drivlikejehu
    The Twins aren't a contender in 2014, end of story.
  21. drivlikejehu
    Why not sign a decent 4th OF and pinch runner? He's not overly far above replacement level, but then, neither is Presley. Any deal with him would be too small to prevent the Twins from doing anything else they might otherwise be inclined to.
  22. drivlikejehu
    It's just a shorthand to illustrate the difference that service time makes to total return. Of course it doesn't work for a new draftee with like 20 innings pitched... that's just a straw man. Scherzer wouldn't bring in a massive haul without an extension. Teams have learned not to do that. Most fan trade ideas overrate their team's players, 2 or 3 times what they are really worth. This is another example, added onto the fact that the Twins aren't going to trade for prospects during this off-season.
  23. drivlikejehu
    Exactly, the Orioles would have been happy to take Willingham in exchange for nothing. That's the point. No one is giving up real value for him. I haven't seen any reports of significant value being offered for Perkins. Of course plenty of teams would like him- probably all 29 other teams, either as closer or lefty setup man. But none are going to give up long-term value for him.
  24. drivlikejehu
    Deadline deals are obviously different from the off-season. Free agency, for one, and also a much more accurate idea of how much value a marginal improvement can produce. If guys like Willingham & Correia had any real trade value, they would already be gone. The Twins wouldn't hesitate to trade Perkins for a big return either. It's not happening because everyone in baseball knows Willingham has no defensive value and is declining as a hitter, that Correia stinks, and that you don't give up good prospects for a good closer.
  25. drivlikejehu
    If the Mariners want to trade away some guys, they have 29 options (per player), not just the Twins, who in fact are less active than many clubs on the trade market. And they certainly have no reason to throw away young players for nothing. Here's what the Oliver projection system says about this proposal: Twins get: 9.4 WAR over next 5 years from Taylor, minimal salary 5.4 WAR over next 5 years from Maurer, minimal salary Romero and Wilhelmsen basically worthless. Mariners get: 0.8 WAR over 1 year from Correia, $5 million 1.8 WAR over 2 years from Perkins, for $7.5 million 1.6 WAR over 1 year from Willingham, for $7 million So let's see... the Twins get way more production for way less money for way more years. Sounds great. Too bad no GM in baseball is anywhere near stupid enough to make a deal like that.
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