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drivlikejehu

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Everything posted by drivlikejehu

  1. drivlikejehu
    If the Twins had a SS ready, he would be penciled in to start SS for the Twins. For all the Twins' pitching needs, they don't have excess position players either aside from possibly Rosario. And he's a good but not great prospect.
  2. drivlikejehu
    I don't think many Twins fans are getting excited over vague rumors... it will take actually deals to do that.
  3. drivlikejehu
    The problem with focusing on risk in free agent contracts is that the price already reflects the level of risk. In other words, if someone like Nolasco was risk-free, he would be massively more expensive. The most extreme examples are short term deals for guys like Josh Johnson, but the principle impacts all player contracts. The Twins' risk is also mitigated by the fact that they are so far below their self-imposed budget constraints. They can sign multiple guys and still have plenty of space.
  4. drivlikejehu
    Nolasco is much younger than Arroyo. Both have been durable but age is a major risk factor. Nolasco typically has had the FIP of a #2 starter and results of a #3-4 starter, which isn't necessarily a bad thing- he was very good in 2013, but his mixed track record will prevent him from getting a huge deal. Four years, $50-60MM is mid-rotation money. The Twins certainly need decent pitchers and can afford Nolasco very easily, while still having plenty of room to sign other pitchers if they desire. For 2015 they currently have $27MM committed, total.
  5. drivlikejehu
    Mastroianni has zero value, Fien has minimal value. Dozier plus a legit prospect would be a starting point, maybe.
  6. drivlikejehu
    Arroyo is not going to be a notable trade chit. The Twins are not contending in 2014. So it seems to me that there are two general free agent profiles that make sense: 1. Cheap, one-year deal to fill a hole and maybe bring back C prospect at deadline 2. Longer-term deal for a player who will be around when the Twins might contend (probably 2016 at the earliest) If the Twins get Arroyo for really cheap, it makes sense. But otherwise it really doesn't, other than the fact that the Twins refuse to target one of the pitchers who fit in group 2.
  7. drivlikejehu
    Just signing Arroyo makes no sense. He adds 2 wins or so compared to the typical AAAA types the Twins throw out there. Once you are losing 90+ games, a couple wins here and there don't matter much. Signing Arroyo in combination with other moves could make sense. But at this point we have no idea what will ultimately happen. It would take quite a bit to get the Twins in the realm of .500 ball.
  8. drivlikejehu
    Good thing I didn't claim that as a certainty then, huh? Stop putting up straw men for a minute and actually do some reading on how catchers age.
  9. drivlikejehu
    Career longevity is completely relevant, because 'great production at a premium position' is worthless in 2014 - the Twins are too bad for it to matter. So the benefit of Mauer catching doesn't even apply until the rest of the team is competitive. And by the time that happens, Mauer at catcher is a very dubious proposition even without the concussion issue. Everyone understands the decision has been made, the issue arose over what it means for the Twins. The most likely scenario- based on historical data, conventional wisdom within baseball, and every other conceivable factor- is that Mauer's move to 1B will ultimately benefit the Twins in terms of production.
  10. drivlikejehu
    It's not speculation. There is a tremendous amount of data that shows how catchers decline more quickly than other positions (despite the occasional exceptional case). Mauer's size and injury history just makes that prognosis even worse. Of course there is no "guarantee" of anything regarding a specific player. Using that as a standard is obviously illegitimate. Based on decades of baseball, Mauer's move to 1B should be just fine for his value. Anyone is free to believe otherwise, but that isn't a position supported by objective data.
  11. drivlikejehu
    There is just no way Mauer was going to be catching a lot of games in, say, 2017. No chance whatsoever, even if he had zero concussion issues.If anything, this helps the Twins to rebuild by opening up the catcher spot, where hopefully they can find a solution. It was a miracle Mauer played catcher as long and as often as he did.The Twins are lengthening Mauer's career in exchange for a modest (1-1.5 WAR) short-term dropoff, while they stink anyway. It's just not a negative in any meaningful sense.
  12. drivlikejehu
    The numbers you throw around aren't ace money anymore- that's #2 starter money. I wouldn't be real 'nervous' about the Twins spending on someone like Ubaldo because they have no other use for the money, besides enriching the Pohlads further. The Twins payroll has plenty of space over the next 3-4 years, even if several prospects do well in 2014 and start their service time clocks. They could sign one of the top FA pitchers, still be active in FA in future years, and still keep their own guys (few of whom are currently worth keeping), all while staying well under their alleged budget. Just go to Cot's and plug the numbers... it's actually quite hard to bust their budget.
  13. drivlikejehu
    Again, first base is not the easy source of offense it once was. Look at the 2013 results across the league. It's more than catchers, of course, but with respect to Mauer there are offsetting factors as well (e.g., greater longevity). The Twins aren't strong organizationally at either spot. Sano seems set to be a 3rd baseman for a while. Vargas is iffy and more of a DH. I don't think Arcia makes sense there. Parmelee is pretty much a bust. Pinto's bat wouldn't be an asset there and he's small for the position defensively. They will get substantially weaker at catcher and substantially stronger at first base. That is temporarily a small net loss - but in the last years of his contract it will likely result in a gain.
  14. drivlikejehu
    Except for the fact that the Twins don't have a first baseman other than Mauer. Two positions, one player... either choice leaves a hole.
  15. drivlikejehu
    The Twins aren't going to win in 2014 and Pinto will be 25. Just let him play and see what happens.
  16. drivlikejehu
    A rate stat isn't a good choice for this comparison, because at 1B Mauer should get significantly more PAs than he would at C (especially over the full 5 years left on his contract). Not only that, but his later years are relatively more important because the Twins could theoretically be competitive by then. We know they won't be in 2014. First base isn't what it used to be offensively. Take a look at the leaderboards in 2013- there is not a lot of exceptional production. Chris Davis was the only first baseman in the AL that had a really big year. Encarnacion is a DH now. Fielder isn't what he was. Who knows what Pujols will do going forward. The NL has Votto and Goldschmidt, but not a lot of depth either. Mauer at 1B is not a problem for the Twins.
  17. drivlikejehu
    Hughes is very mediocre. Maybe slightly better than Pelfrey, but guys like that just aren't going to make a difference. Either sign someone with upside for 1 year, with the possibility of flipping him at the deadline, or sign a legitimately good pitcher (preferably both). Both of those kind of moves can improve the club's chances in 2015 or 2016.
  18. drivlikejehu
    I think this will be good for Mauer's value overall. It reduces his ceiling, since a good-hitting catcher is so valuable, but playing first should allow him to play more games and decline more slowly in general as he ages. Mauer could easily be a 4 WAR first baseman initially, which would basically 'earn' his salary from a production standpoint.
  19. drivlikejehu
    The Twins only exist because a judge bent the law. Pohlad was 100% committed to contraction.
  20. drivlikejehu
    Injury risk alone takes Meyer off any legit consideration for the #2 prospect spot. Buxton would really have to dominate to get called up mid-year. New Britain isn't the easiest place to hit, especially early in the season, and even someone with Buxton's ability may need a bit of time to adjust to superior pitching.
  21. drivlikejehu
    If you read my post, you would note that I didn't say the Native American mascot issue was stupid (though it is in some cases, such as what William & Mary did with their logo). We're not talking about some obscure thing here... the big pro sports teams have been known to basically everyone. So it's not really true that the public was "painfully slow" to catch on to 'the cause.' It's more accurate to say that no one (outside some Native Americans) cared until they had an opportunity to promote their own self-interest. That's what the current media & political push is all about. Chief Wahoo probably deserves to go, but the holier-than-thou act is just transparent garbage from 99.9% of the people pushing for change.
  22. drivlikejehu
    That's just a deflection from the fact that almost everyone now clamoring for changes was completely absent on the 'issue' before very recently. Nothing has changed to make the mascots/names more offensive. Some of the mascots/names should be changed, but the 'outrage' over it is product of a bandwagon of people trying to assert their moral superiority. And once the low-hanging fruit is gone, the same people will gin up controversy over increasingly stupid things.
  23. drivlikejehu
    Some people always need an issue to be up in arms about. That's whats driving it. Most Native Americans have real life to worry about and don't care (as Reilly pointed out on ESPN, "Redskins" is the mascot for several schools on reservations). Chief Wahoo is more on the offensive side of things, but most of the people crying now couldn't have cared less until it became a cause celebre.
  24. drivlikejehu
    Willingham is an aging veteran - 2013 wasn't going to "cement" him as anything better than he was in 2012, in fact, the exact opposite was true. And many Twins fans stated as much at the time, so there is no hindsight bias in effect here. There is no reason to think your speculation about other GMs has any credibility whatsoever. The contract was reasonable, the player was doing well, and various clubs could have used a right-handed corner OF bat. Rumors certainly abounded that the interest was real. No one expected top talent in return. But it goes to the same issue as Correia - what good do those guys do a terrible team? Going from 100 losses to 96? Once a team is that bad it doesn't really matter. Spend the money on something that actually might pay dividends in the future.
  25. drivlikejehu
    I don't agree that anti-Correia posters were wrong. He was better than expected but still mediocre, and the team lost 96 games. The discontent with Twins' management isn't about one move or even a group of moves/non-moves. Most commentors recognize the information assymetry that exists and are more interested in the 'type' of moves and how they fit with where the organization is situated. Why would a rebuilding team hold onto Willingham when his value was peaking? Why sign back-of-rotation starters? And if Ryan didn't want a full rebuild, why come in under budget? It's the lack of clear direction that even fans can fully discern from the information we have, and it's a problem that justifies concern.
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