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drivlikejehu

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Everything posted by drivlikejehu

  1. drivlikejehu
    I only consider how a tool will play in the Majors. Walker is like a long drive champ who can't actually play golf. It's kind of interesting but shouldn't cloud your analysis. Even if you want to give Turner some leeway, he's not the Twins #10 prospect. The Twins certainly wouldn't agree. No organization in baseball would rather have Turner than Hu, not to mention at least 20 other Twins prospects.
  2. drivlikejehu
    We're talking contextually insane, based on the number of pitchers the Twins already have under contract for 2016, on top of the fact Pelfrey isn't actually good.
  3. drivlikejehu
    Some of those are hard to understand. I'll grant that opinions differ on Meyer. But Turner is not a good prospect at all. He's a younger Drew Butera. I don't see how he is top 30. Hu is clearly a better prospect than Harrison and Walker, in my opinion. Harrison isn't good defensively and hasn't shown power in games. Walker hits AA mistakes but lacks the plate discipline to succeed in the Majors. I have him in the 25-30 range. Gonsalves and Hu fit in the 6-10 range pretty comfortably.
  4. drivlikejehu
    It would be insane to offer Pelfrey 1 year, $15 million+. I don't trust Ryan's judgment at all and still I don't worry about him doing that. 0% chance.
  5. drivlikejehu
    Like I said, his numbers above A-ball are atrocious. He isn't an elite athlete. He doesn't have great power. He has horrible plate discipline. Those are not the traits of a successful MLB player. Nor are any of those things easy to improve upon. He is a huge long-shot to establish himself as a solid big leaguer.
  6. drivlikejehu
    Well where do you want them ranked, in the 20s? They aren't elite prospects but they are better than minor league relievers, or position players that can't actually hit, etc. The Twins system isn't as deep as some posters seem to think. Kepler has very little in common with Morneau as a hitter. Physical appearance maybe.
  7. drivlikejehu
    Well there are different definitions of success. To me, a 4th outfielder is not a success story for a former top prospect. And regardless of expectations, 4th outfielders are easy to find. Quality starting players are not easy to find. Batting skills are not always easy to improve. Plate discipline involves a lot of natural ability just like most things in sports... vision, reaction time, etc. No amount of hard work can really overcome deficiencies in key areas.
  8. drivlikejehu
    I don't agree about the likelihood that 2 of the 5 will succeed. Walker has almost no chance, Hicks is already a bust, Rosario has severe plate discipline problems, Harrison lacks range and power, Kepler lacks power. I do think 1 of the 5 will succeed, probably Kepler, with Hicks being a 4th OF and the other three washing out.
  9. drivlikejehu
    No.
  10. drivlikejehu
    Kepler is still a little ways off. The real issue is that the Twins and most fans dramatically overrate Rosario. It is essentially impossible to be successful with his current plate discipline and he's never had success above A-ball. So that will happen is that the Twins get rid of Arcia, Rosario goes bust, and then even if Kepler pans out they are short an outfielder.
  11. drivlikejehu
    It's really going to irritate me when the Twins give Arcia away for nothing and he almost immediately becomes a highly productive hitter. He's a much, much better bet than Vargas, long-term. I'd also take Arcia over Rosario without a second thought... hitters with plate discipline problems and average power rarely succeed.
  12. drivlikejehu
    I agree, though the necessary implication is that Twins' management might actually consider it. Which says something very unflattering about them.
  13. drivlikejehu
    Pelfrey is not suddenly a great pitcher. No team is going to give up real value for him. That's just the way it is. You can think of him however you like, but within baseball he is not highly valued.
  14. drivlikejehu
    The positional adjustment is killer. A good defensive corner outfielder is worth much, much more than the same offensive production for a good defensive 1B. If Kepler has a .750 - .800 OPS with good outfield defense, he's very valuable. If he has that OPS at first, he's below average even with excellent defense.
  15. drivlikejehu
    Kepler is only going to be a valuable MLB player in the outfield. Unless there's a health reason, it makes zero sense for him to be at 1B.
  16. drivlikejehu
    Milone is the first man out, though this time he will go to the bullpen rather than AAA. When Nolasco comes back, it certainly gets tricky. Decent chance the problem solves itself before then. If not, who knows... the Twins do a lot of questionable things, so I wouldn't rule anything out.
  17. drivlikejehu
    If he doesn't have poor command, then his stuff is bad. You can't have it both ways. For some reason, he's getting no strikeouts... either the pitches themselves are easy to hit, or the location is bad, or both. If everything was great his results would show it.
  18. drivlikejehu
    You can be encouraged by whatever you like. But the evidence is overwhelming - no AA player with plate discipline problems of this magnitude has gone on to success in the past 15 years. And probably much longer than that, except I didn't bother checking after I realized how awful the precedents were. These facts are not "trashing" Walker, but merely acknowledge the reality that plate discipline is an indispensable skill in baseball. It cannot be made up for with power, because MLB pitchers will use that weakness to avoid the power.
  19. drivlikejehu
    The one X-factor though is if he's convinced it's because of the concussion and is worried about the risk of another one. It's something I would be worried about.
  20. drivlikejehu
    I don't understand your latter points at all. Correct me if I'm wrong, but wouldn't you rather have seven good players than three? That's why the regressions are an issue. A club needs a number of contributors to have success. Right now I don't see enough good players, even if the top prospects pan out. And historically, that in itself is a dubious assumption.
  21. drivlikejehu
    Disintegrating refers to the present. For instance, regression by Mauer, Hughes, Danny Santana, etc. Failed refers to a future state, i.e., subsequent to the process of disintegration. As a result of those regressions and other factors, the Twins will have won fewer games than would be expected at the end of a successful rebuild. Fairly straightforward really.
  22. drivlikejehu
    An assertion you created. I said nothing of the kind. I never thought the Twins were good this year in the first place. Net, they are still way up on where they should be. It's their underlying lack of production that concerns me. I've been completely consistent in that regardless of temporary hot and cold streaks.
  23. drivlikejehu
    The success of those prospects is already assumed from a rebuilding standpoint - without them the Twins would obviously be going nowhere. My comments were not for dramatic purposes. If you realistically project 2016 - based on how the Twins actually behave (e.g., Mauer will start at 1B regularly), the results are not good. There is almost no way to come up with a good club unless everything breaks right. To me, if the Twins are bad in 2016, that qualifies as a rebuilding failure. Obviously that's my opinion. The further out you go, the harder it is to know who will even be on the team. But this team is producing much less than last year's. That is scary. One lucky month does nothing to alleviate the core issues at hand.
  24. drivlikejehu
    He probably does. But it's not going to happen, period. The magnitude of that problem is really substantial... on the order of multiple wins per year. Plus, they have a black hole at catcher and a dubious SS situation, while they are locked into long-term deals with several mediocre starting pitchers. One lucky month has temporarily papered over the reality that the Twins rebuild is disintegrating before it can take hold.
  25. drivlikejehu
    Sitting Mauer is not a viable long-term option and it won't get his head right. The concussion damage is permanent. Even so, that's not a very good lineup, for 2015 anyway.
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