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drivlikejehu

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Everything posted by drivlikejehu

  1. drivlikejehu
    I didn't suggest otherwise. The subject of the thread has been whether Vargas is having a breakout, not whether he should be replaced at DH. There's a very good chance he's at least league average at the plate, which is poor for a DH but not exactly an atrocity, especially for a team on track for ~95 losses.
  2. drivlikejehu
    Read the Fangraphs primer on it. It makes sense.
  3. drivlikejehu
    We have some data. We know that he has spent the majority of 2016 in AAA, where he had a fairly pedestrian RC+ of 128 for a 25-year old DH with MLB experience. We know he strikes out a fair amount and is a very slow runner, yet currently has a BABIP of .410. So we know that his average is going to drop a lot. What we don't know is whether he has permanently changed his batted-ball profile in a way that will produce significantly more fly balls than in the past. We also don't know whether pitchers will re-adjust and, if so, how Vargas will respond.
  4. drivlikejehu
    FIP and xFIP are much better as predictive stats, except over very large sample sizes. The entire point of them is to remove noise. In exchange they lose the ability to distinguish certain factors that ordinarily are close to the league mean.
  5. drivlikejehu
    Well, every start gives you more information. He has enough experience that I'd bet the under on his FIP and xFIP - but the question is, by how much? His FIP and xFIP are awful, so he needs to blow them away to be effective. So far he's done that, but so did Matt Cain for a long time. Now he's in his 4th consecutive year with an ERA being worse than his defense-independent stats. Santiago is doing it with BABIP - his home rate is normal. So I suppose the question is whether you think Hector Santiago essentially has the BABIP skill of Mariano Rivera or not. I'm guessing not. And this year even a super-low BABIP isn't enough for him to have a good ERA.
  6. drivlikejehu
    Not nearly enough to be confident in his ERA over his FIP and xFIP. It's certainly possible, but the walk rate and fly ball % is a worrisome combination.
  7. drivlikejehu
    Maybe it was all smoke, but there were persistent rumors that multiple teams were interested in Suzuki. He is worthless to the Twins. There was no reason to hold onto him . . . same with Kintzler. It's not just about return - the Twins need to be playing young guys. Yet they are still holding over too many veterans in the pitching staff. Granted, they have no one at catcher . . . if they were literally offered 0 talent for Suzuki I guess that would be fine. But there's no objective reason to believe that was the case.
  8. drivlikejehu
    They certainly DFA'd guys with money left on their contracts. In this case the Twins actually save money, which isn't exactly a tough sell to the Pohlads. It's an unusual trade for sure, so that's why there isn't a direct analogue from the TR days. Bottom line is that they held onto players that should have been moved. Santana is arguable so I'm not too concerned about that, but Suzuki and Kintzler? Fail.
  9. drivlikejehu
    The problem is the deals Antony didn't make, which has been a theme in the past as well. This deadline certainly did nothing to indicate Antony represents anything other than a continuation of the same old.
  10. drivlikejehu
    Yeah, I mean they are 14th in BaseRuns scored per game. Not amazing or anything, but all things considered it's not bad. Of course, 28th in BaseRuns allowed per game . . .
  11. drivlikejehu
    I'm sure some of the Santana talk was posturing by the Twins, nothing wrong with that of course. But I am curious to see what they got, if the rumor is correct.
  12. drivlikejehu
    Abad has very limited value and it shows in the return. But it's a good move . . . Light can stay at AAA and hopefully get his command to a more viable level.
  13. drivlikejehu
    Unless some deals are effectively done but just not finalized. I'm concerned of course, since I don't have any confidence in Antony.
  14. drivlikejehu
    I didn't make reference to any specific authorities, but instead provided an assertion based on what seems to me to be common sense. If you have empirical evidence that says otherwise, please share so that I can re-visit my opinion.
  15. drivlikejehu
    Link?
  16. drivlikejehu
    It's hard to evaluate at a high level of precision. But the Twins have overall been below average at drafting for the past 15 years, no matter how you want to look at it, with the caveat that the evaluation always lags because the results take so long to manifest.
  17. drivlikejehu
    Well, it's definitely a hot streak. Vargas obviously isn't one of the top 5 hitters in baseball. Stretches like this happen. All the things being said about Vargas could have been or were said about Grossman, and he continues to come back down to Earth. The difference of course is that Grossman can actually play in the field. Is Vargas playing better than in his previous MLB opportunities? Yes. But realistically you have to look at the whole picture, good and bad, from more than 70 PAs.
  18. drivlikejehu
    I'm not sure I follow the timeline presented here. Vargas debuted 2 years ago, not last year. Last year he wasn't any good, and actually he wasn't very good in AAA this year either, though some of that was bad luck on balls in play. Vargas has never been a pure slugger. His minor league track record is more that of a line-drive hitter, despite his size and lack of speed. I don't see any evidence that the current run is anything more than a hot streak by a player with average hitting ability but no defensive value. That would make him a below average 1B or DH.
  19. drivlikejehu
    In 2015, Vargas had a minor league BB rate of 17.2% (!!!) His biggest problem has always been that he doesn't consistently barrel the ball up and take advantage of his raw power. Honestly I don't see much different in that regard, despite a few big games after the call up.
  20. drivlikejehu
    Centeno is a really, really bad hitter - his performance at the plate this year has actually been incredibly good, by his standards. But there is no reason to think he can sustain it. Garver is already a better hitter than Centeno, I have little doubt about that. So if his defense is acceptable, I don't see why he should be kept in the minors. It's not as if he's a 21-year old, high-upside prospect that you don't want to mess with. If Suzuki is dealt, it could be Garver's best and even only opportunity, if the Twins gave it to him. I guarantee he would be thrilled.
  21. drivlikejehu
    It will be a miracle if Meyer is ever able to pitch regularly for the Twins. At this point there's no real reason to track what's happening . . . his arm isn't healthy.
  22. drivlikejehu
    I don't think Rosario really has much value. I'm sure there are teams that would love to take a crack at teaching him how to hit, but they aren't going to pay much for that opportunity. To put it another way, his value is that of a 4th OF + the chance he can be turned into a solid regular * the value of a solid regular with his years of control, etc. So, more than a pure 4th OF, but much less than a solid regular, since the chances of fixing him aren't great.
  23. drivlikejehu
    I'd call him up if Suzuki was dealt, and use him as the starting catcher. I'm not even particularly high on him as a prospect, but I don't see a better option. Garver is already 25 1/2 so it wouldn't be quite the same as calling up a young prospect drafted out of HS with only a moderate amount of time in the high minors.
  24. drivlikejehu
    It's not the AAA manager's call how to use the players there. Really makes zero sense that the Twins didn't play him there if they had any willingness to have him play that spot in the Majors. Even if you factor in that his ultimate destination is 2B, it still doesn't make sense. Just another one of those inexplicable mistakes the Twins make.
  25. drivlikejehu
    One can only hope this is some novel form of satire.
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