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drivlikejehu

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Everything posted by drivlikejehu

  1. drivlikejehu
    Yeah, and the rest of the time Santana is so solid out there.
  2. drivlikejehu
    Grossman would have caught it.
  3. drivlikejehu
    Definitely a catch, it bounced from the side of the glove into the webbing.
  4. drivlikejehu
    Another start for Santana. It's ridiculous.
  5. drivlikejehu
    This is a no brainer in fantasy given the lack of defensive consideration. Just on baseball terms . . . that's a really tough one. I would take Kepler but it's close.
  6. drivlikejehu
    I thought it was interesting. Why is it bad to understand more about what's happening? It's not like anyone thought Kepler was now a 40+ HR guy anyway. The article just points to what we already knew - Kepler is more of a line drive hitter. That doesn't mean his line drive home runs don't count.
  7. drivlikejehu
    I was told I was overreacting at the lack of information and that the Twins surely wouldn't leave a bunch of their allotment on the table. So, hmm . . .
  8. drivlikejehu
    So wait - we want to give a sub-replacement-level player lots of ABs in the Majors, but have Sano try to get back on track in AAA? Hmm, ok, going to have to disagree with that one.
  9. drivlikejehu
    OK, so what should the Twins do with the 9 position players on the roster worse than him?
  10. drivlikejehu
    Sano is the team's 4th best position player by WAR, one of the team's youngest players, has high upside, and has already destroyed the minors, and is struggling at 3B after being told to play the outfield for the first half of the season. He should not be demoted. It is a unjustifiable, horrible, and yes, borderline comical idea. It is frightening that the Twins consider it even a remote possibility. Again, he is one of the team's best players EVEN WHILE UNDERACHIEVING AT THE PLATE AND STRUGGLING IN THE FIELD. But the Twins should demote him to "teach him a lesson?" That would be an interesting lesson: the Twins will sabotage you and then demote you even when you are one of the team's best players. Brilliant. Sign me up.
  11. drivlikejehu
    You're better off bashing your way into the playoffs than trying to trade good position players for pitchers.
  12. drivlikejehu
    He's consistent in more than just that. wRC+ by year: 2012 [R] - 118 2013 [A] - 130 2014 [A+] - 111 2015 [AA] - 125 2016 [AAA] - 124 Nothing special for his age. He's never been one of the best hitters in a league or even on his own team. People like home runs, understandably, and get excited, but even if you ignore the fact MLB pitchers will dominate Walker, his actual minor league numbers aren't particularly great. He's just stayed healthy and at one level per year, so he's accumulated a lot of counting stats.
  13. drivlikejehu
  14. drivlikejehu
    The perception of the Twins is being colored by two years of play sequencing: - in 2015, the team was overrated because they had fortunate sequencing - in 2016, the team is underrated because they've had unfortunate sequencing In reality, the Twins have been below-average both years . . . the gap in actual production is far less than the difference in record. Now, I have been strongly against the Ryan-led or staffed front office, because the Twins have been either bad or below average for too long while making poor decisions on a regular basis. But going back to the timeline topic: the Twins are at .462 in BaseRuns; the Reds are an astonishing .348, the Braves are .373 . . . the Twins are well ahead of the Royals, and they are going to be losing talent more than adding it. Of course if the Twins make a terrible GM hire, they are sunk. I personally don't think that's necessarily the most likely outcome. I'm confident that Pohlad wants to make money above all else, and despite his bizarre and embarrassing public statements, I think there's a solid chance they make a sensible hire.
  15. drivlikejehu
    1) Sure, the Yankees can buy starting pitching, but I wasn't think about clubs like them when I said others were further away. Plenty of other owners are cheap or at least cautious - the Reds, Brewers, Diamondbacks, Athletics, Rays, and others are limited financially as well. 2) Well, very few contenders actually have a good rotation top-to-bottom. The Orioles have basically 2 starters. The Twins aren't very smart about pitching, but in theory a new GM could help with that. Getting May back into the rotation along with Berrios would present some upside. 3) I'm not a Molitor fan at all but the manager reports to the front office; Molitor has been empowered to make bad decisions. A new GM could easily put a stop to it even if Molitor has to begin 2017 as the manager.
  16. drivlikejehu
    I don't think the Twins can contend next year, but I still think Sullivan is wrong by a pretty wide margin. The Twins are actually 18th in BaseRuns record and have potential upside in terms of young talent. A good GM could have the Twins at least borderline in contention in 2 years, whereas I think 5 or so teams realistically are further away than that.
  17. drivlikejehu
    He's average at allowing HR. His delta is almost entirely due to extremely low BABIP. My hypothesis is that it's a mix of defense, luck, and skill, and that in front of a subpar defense he's a decent #4 starter at best, probably more of a #5.
  18. drivlikejehu
    Vielma is a pure slap hitter - right now he projects to something like a .575 OPS in the Majors. He needs to hit the ball harder to even be a good utility option in the era of 12-man pitching staffs. He's only 22, so he should hang around in the high minors and hopefully at least offer some depth.
  19. drivlikejehu
    That's a complete fabrication. I never predicted his future at all in this thread. I only said what I just re-posted, that I didn't see evidence that he had elevated his game. That's not 'predicting the future,' it's withholding judgment, and it's tremendously hypocritical to misconstrue that after preaching about "fairness" in commenting earlier in the day.
  20. drivlikejehu
    Well, then I'm mystified by why you took issue with my statement that: "I don't see any evidence that the current run is anything more than a hot streak by a player with average hitting ability . . ." That's the exact same statement that you just said is your point. I don't see enough evidence to change my evaluation of Vargas as an average MLB hitter (which isn't bad, by the way, except that Vargas can't play defense). Average hitters go on hot streaks all the time. I can't figure out a single aspect of anything I said that you actually disagree with. Not sure why you strained to turn agreement into disagreement.
  21. drivlikejehu
  22. drivlikejehu
    No, I mean "except." Over very large sample sizes ERA is a better predictor than FIP and xFIP because pitchers do vary in their "true" BABIP and HR/FB ability. The sample size progression goes: xFIP - FIP - ERA For a tiny number of innings, xFIP is better because HRs can distort FIP. Over larger samples FIP is better because it captures the pitcher's "true" HR/FB ability. Over really large samples ERA is best because it accounts for that plus BABIP.
  23. drivlikejehu
    Yeah, it is a fact. Over the sample size in question, it's actually not that unlikely for a roughly league-average hitter to post crazy numbers. That's just how baseball works . . . Dozier is an above average hitter, but still, he's had some very dramatic highs and lows. Look at what Danny Santana did in his rookie season, and he can't even hit. Vargas' current run tells us very little. Players have hot streaks all the time that don't amount to anything long-term. His rookie year he had a RC+ of 114. Maybe that's his true ability and he just had a sophomore slump. Maybe he's really good now and can sustain 125. Maybe he will actually settle in at 100 or 105. The two things I'm looking at is flyball % and strikeout %. The BABIP is noise.
  24. drivlikejehu
    Are you saying he's not on a hot streak? Seriously? Do you believe he can maintain a .410 BABIP? If not, what BABIP do you think he can maintain? I'm just baffled how it could be a "problem" to point out basic facts that aren't even criticisms. Babe Ruth had a career BABIP of 340!
  25. drivlikejehu
    Meyer's ability is pretty much beside the point. He is not physically capable of pitching for any length of time, which also has had the effect of disrupting/delaying his development. Unless you're a James Andrews pupil that has reviewed Meyer's most up-to-date medical records, your observations have very little to do with Meyer's value.
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