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Dantes929

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Everything posted by Dantes929

  1. Dantes929
    Win expectancy chart shows Joe Mauer error but I am thinking that was the Cano error in the Mauer at bat. Of course Bremer had to mention Mauer had no errors on the season so I was guessing one was coming but I don't remember seeing it, plus the chart takes a dip toward the Twins after that play.. Gibson looked really good . Before the game they talked about how Bergman added and subtracted on his pitches and how Gibson needed to do that as well. I thought good luck with that but he actually did have a much better mix than he has in over a year. When Blyleven gushes about your curve ball maybe you should be thinking "HOF curve baller loves my curve ball. Hmmm...maybe I should throw it more" What a boost it would be if Gibson gave us a bunch of quality starts.
  2. Dantes929
    It happens with every team and we had who we want in there at the end with the lead. One bad pitch and give the guy credit for taking advantage of it. Reminds me of when fans used to say we just didn't have the horses to compete with the Yankees. While it was true that they were the better team there were games where we had an all star closer in Nathan with a lead in the 9th who was as close as a sure thing this side of the Yankees Rivera himself and he couldn't close the deal. It ceases to be a matter of not having the horses when you have the guy you want on the mound with a lead in the 9th. Its not that Kintzler is incapable. He just threw a bad pitch and not the kind that Blyleven comments on which is results based. It tailed into the middle of the plate rather than the corner. It happens. Much as I like these game recaps I am a baseball fan so can't help but notice that we are 0-2 since Tom Froemming has started doing these. Might be a bit of a reach since he writes them after the game but I don;t know what else to blame it on.
  3. Dantes929
    Count me in for being in favor of recaps. I used to go to the Trib for Lavelle but got too lazy. At least, this first one is much better anyway in content and format. Game threads are nice but feel like I have to read through 8 pages of posts to comment on the game and then not sure who is left to discuss it with, anyway.
  4. Dantes929
    Well, its not completely arbitrary. You are matching your best relievers with the quality starts and your worst relievers with the games that already have a high probability of losing. If the run differential is compiled by way of blow out losses it has less statistical impact. 87 Twins comes to mind. One great starter, one decent starter, one mediocre starter and very poor bullpen. Kelly didn't put Reardon and Buerenguer out there when the Twins were 5 runs behind. We saw your unpredictability and unintended consequences when the Twins blew a save and it went into extra innings. We had nothing left to hold the lead against the Astros the next day and there was probably ripple effect that continued on for a couple games. That's where quality depth is valuable and we just don't have it right now. As far as our rotation goes I am hoping any regression on the part of the three you named is made up for by improvement from Gibson and Santiago or who ever replaces them. Not really disagreeing with anything you have said. It is a fine balancing act to keep on the plus side of things but we kind of knew going in that we would need things breaking our way to have a good season. We are where I thought we could be given good seasons from May, Gibson, Pressley, Dozier and Buxton. Shows what I know.
  5. Dantes929
    I am against judging young guys by two appearances but it looks like a couple of guys are as deserving or more deserving of being given the chance anyway. I wonder why Rosario leapfrogged the three you mentioned and maybe a couple others as well.
  6. Dantes929
    Indefinitely. If the run differential is created by the lopsided losses then the only performances that count are the starting pitching and and the relievers who come in when the game is close. Right now we have three starters that have ERA's under 4 which has only happened once in the last 7 years. Not coincidentally that year was 2015 when we had the winning record. If the quality starts are spaced out in such a way that does not tax our depth then the only ERA's by relievers that matter are Kintzler, Duffey, Rogers, Boshers and Breslow. Who cares if Rosario has a 30 ERA if it is created by giving up 5 runs when we are already down 6? Of course, nothing is spaced out perfectly so it would be really nice to get another 2 relievers on whom we can rely but so far the quality starts have been matched up with the quality relief pretty well. Dare we give Molitor some credit for that?
  7. Dantes929
    Fans have ripped on the bullpen but to me the last 5 games have been a microcosm of the season. We have been out scored 28-23 which means we are guaranteed losing one game and conceivably losing all 5. Instead we have two blow out losses, one blow out win and two close wins. 3-2 record because we won all the games we had a realistic job of winning and lost two blow outs. Bullpen did a great job in the close games and got destroyed in the losses. Of course I would rather have tons of depth and quality in the bullpen and have them give us a chance to come back when the starters dig a big hole. We are 29-25 when we should be 24-30 based on run differential. ERA is high and depth isn't there but aside from the two games in a row last week the bullpen has been quite solid when it matters. When it doesn't matter the runs have piled up. I am fine if that trend continues.
  8. Dantes929
    Where would we be without Kintzler? Pretty sure by this point last year we had already lost at least 6 games where we had the lead going in to the 9th inning. This year... none. To me his Wins Above Last Year is 6.
  9. Dantes929
    There are 10 types of people in the world. Those who understand binary and those who don't.
  10. Dantes929
    People asked at the start of the season how you can expect to be better when nothing significant changes on the roster and the answer is the same as it was after the 2007 season and we lost our best pitcher and our best outfielder. The answer is have more guys play better. Last year at this time we had two guys on the entire roster that were not having horrible years. One was the utility infielder (Nunez) and one was the utility outfielder (Grossman). Now, its easier to say who is not having a great year. and there is still the feeling that they can improve to make up for regression from others. Dozier, Buxton, Gibson, Castro, Mejia and Berrios (just by pitching more) are all capable of playing better. The most amazing performance has been Santana but one amazing stat is that this team can lose the next 32 games and still have a better record at that point than last year. This year is probably a mirage but so was last year.
  11. Dantes929
    Like Oliva I tend to weigh more on how he did when healthy which was a .320 average and upper .800s OPS. Three batting titles puts him up there. I certainly disagree that Puckett or Carew were clearly superior. If you go by OPS plus then Killebrew is better but its a little apples to oranges. Its all a little more subjective than it should be. I mean is it average, at their best, overall, power, longevity, OPS, OPS+? Shane Mack had 5 better seasons statistically than Puckett's average but he wasn't even ranked in the top 25 Twins. How do you judge it? Personally I would go with Killebrew, Oliva, Carew, Mauer, Puckett in no particular order but probably pretty close to that order. Morneau, Hrbek, Mack, Hunter, Knoblach after that in no particular order but probably pretty close to that order.
  12. Dantes929
    Ehh. Those two teams are pretty close to .500 if it weren't for the Twins. Every good team beats up on bad teams and most go around .500 against good teams. We are not even saying the Twins are a good team but a division should be judged on how it does against other divisions. The East is 14 games above .500, the West is 10 games above .500 and the National league is collectively 17 games below .500. Thus far we are the weakest division in the AL but far from the worst in the majors.
  13. Dantes929
    I expect regression in some areas and progression in others. Buxton and Dozier are prime candidates to pick up slack. We contended on the back of three decent starters in 2015 and the 87 Twins won on the back of one good starter and one decent starter and two ok relievers. If Berrios is the real deal and Gibson or Mejia give us anything all we need is a little good luck.
  14. Dantes929
    The game he blew this year were mostly scratch singles that some were afraid was inevitable because he is not a strike out pitcher but I can live with that. Strikeout pitchers can give up walks and dingers so ultimately it is still about runs given up and Kintzler has been just fine. What I liked about Nathan against everyone but the Yankees was that when he blew a save he still kept us in the game and Kintzler is that kind of battler also. The save he blew this year we still won because he limited the damage.
  15. Dantes929
    I guess it can go both ways. Kind of depends on the at bats. Were they 3-2 counts where he threw sliders to get them to chase or were they 3-0 counts where he didn't have command. I will go with slightly encouraged. Its better than his other start. I don't know what to make of him. Two years ago he would throw clunkers but at least as often as not he would throw a gem and I am ok with that in a 3-5 starter. ST seemed encouraging but I understand the short leash. He just hasn't produced.
  16. Dantes929
    Sano, Gibson, Polanco, Kepler, Dozier and Vargas all in the same year. That is interesting. Any idea what the record for most Twins that are up at the same time that were signed the same year?
  17. Dantes929
    I get the value of advanced stats but I really don't like how it pigeonholes and defines players. Not every player that has X peripherals is the same. If Kintzler had immense early struggles he would already be out of there. Should we get him out of there because two guys who are similar struggled even though Kintzler has gotten the job done? Two pitchers might have similar pitches, and similar strikeout and walk rates but that doesn't make them identical. Cole DeVries is not the same as Greg Maddux. (ok going extreme here and not even looking up their stats but just trying to make a point) Advanced Metrics people would most likely have gotten rid of Gladden, Bush, Laudner and Reardon. You leave Kintzler in until he fails because it is fair to him and fair to the team based on his performance. I also agree that you bring in Burdi or Melo if they are pitching well and the relief corps starts to leak badly.
  18. Dantes929
    No one on this team I would rather have on the mound. Its not my nerves I am worried about. Davis made me nervous, Reardon made me nervous, Aguilera probably made me nervous. Guardado made me nervous, Nathan made me nervous. Perkins made me nervous. What I like about Kintzler is that HE doesn't seem nervous. Reminds me a lot of Eddie in a lot of ways and he ended up in the Twins HOF. Yes, ground balls will sneak through but they will also be turned into outs and double plays. Pressley has a ridiculous 9 SO/BB ratio and he has also given up 6 more runs in 3 fewer innings. Who would you rather have out there in the 9th. Maybe eventually some one else but I am fine with Kintzler for now. I am still way more concerned about the rotation. Thrilled with Santiago and Santana and nonplussed with the other three.
  19. Dantes929
    The record of division teams against division teams as a group is always going to be .500 so the only test of a division is their record against everyone else. The Royals for example are 7-8 against teams outside our division and 1-8 against the Central and they haven't even played the Tigers or Indians yet which would indicate that our division is very strong and the Royals are simply the weak brother in the division. The Royals are 1 game below .500 against outside divisions and the rest of the Central is a collective even which would indicate our division is simply average. Twins have only played 3 games outside the division. Too early to tell how strong the division is.
  20. Dantes929
    How have the Twins turned Vargas into a line drive hitter? If there is one thing I have seen over the years it is that guys that try to pull the ball generally fail. Has Sano turned into a line drive hitter because he goes with the pitch and uses all fields? Big Pappy's spray charts in Boston look a lot like those in MN. Personally I think he might owe the Twins for his success rather than other wise. He has a natural pull swing but he stepped toward the pitcher rather than toward right field. Big Pappy is a HOFer. Maybe the reason Vargas is not better than Ortiz has nothing to do with the Twins.
  21. Dantes929
    You are right of course. I have been very happy with Sano's defense over there. His arm has been quite accurate on the routine plays. Its some of his best and most athletic plays where the throws have been a little off but with a lot of heat. I recall hearing Bremer say a couple times "great play by Sano and even better play by Mauer" Bremer hyperbole of course since those plays were definitely more credit to Sano but still could have been cancelled perhaps by lesser 1st basemen. I have been pretty happy with Polanco also in making routine and some tough plays. Back in the day Gagne made great athletic plays but the throws on a lot of those plays needed Hrbek for completion. Just like a great defensive outfield can make a pitcher's stats look good a great 1st baseman can be pretty valuable in keeping a shortstop's stats good. SSS and I have only seen about a third of the games but the infield defense has looked better than anticipated, and the catching and outfield defense has lived up to expectations.
  22. Dantes929
    I get your point but disagree in the application. Even if they tracked scooped balls it would be difficult to qualify them. Short hops are easy and big hops are easy and there is probably also an expectation of how many scoops are expected but if they are not tracked at all then I consider it a flaw. I have only watched Twins games and have seen a couple times the Twins have gotten on because of balls thrown in the dirt that I did not consider all that difficult and I have seen Mauer make several plays that I thought were exceptional and athletic. Then of course there was the play that Mauer made yesterday just because of his height and reach that are not considered so much when tracking range. Our big concern was defensive left side and I believe with an average 1st baseman over there it would loom larger than it does now. I will say again that the difference between average and exceptional at first base exists but is the minimal that you suggest when receiving throws from guys like Hardy and Crede. It is more significant than is given credit for when it is Sano and Polanco. Our views of their defense would be quite a bit different if Mauer hadn't handled just a couple of each of their throws the way he has. Just my opinion.
  23. Dantes929
    Did I just witness it last night?
  24. Dantes929
    I don't know all that goes into WAR especially for defense but if Buxton is getting that much credit for defense you have got to consider Mauer's defense more critically. He is not getting throws from Joe Crede and JJ Hardy over there where all he has to do is hold up his glove chest high and they hit it. The rockets from Sano that are ankle high or nearly hit the runner and the in between hops from Polanco have been a regular thing and Mauer gobbling them up has been just as regular. They have been just as run saving as Buxton's extended coverage in center. It has been Hrbekesque and in my world that is the guy that should own at least half of Mattingly's Gold Glove awards.
  25. Dantes929
    There were points in Twins past where Crain and Liriano told the manager "I have no idea what I am doing out there". They were demoted and to their credit they worked their way through their troubles and came back strong. Until Buxton says something like that you keep putting him out there and let him work on figuring it out. Personally, when I see the lineup I like seeing Buxton out there. I want to witness the game where it all clicks and he gets in a groove. Its a less interesting lineup when he is not in it.
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