Brandon

I think they will spend on 1 pitcher in the 10-15 million per season up to 4 maybe 5 seasons. They will need to sign another and they will but not the overly expensive variety and on a shorter 1-3 year contract. I wouldn't be surprised if Meyer starts getting more press from the Twins as the offseason wears on and the signings take place showing a rotation of 1. Expensive pitcher 2. Less expensive pitcher 3. Dedunno 4. Correia 5. Meyer/ Gibson On a side note advertising will be fun next year with the rookies (Buxton, Sano, Rosario, Arcia, Meyer, Gibson,...and new "gunslingers signed this offseason" .

My question is regarding Pitching staff construction at minimal costs with above average results. I figure relievers are fungible and more inconsistent year to year as a whole so they tend to be less expensive. Also a starting pitcher who can pitch 180-200 innings with a league average era costs 1/3 the amount or even less than a starter who has a higher likeliness of giving up a full run less per start. With this in mind the Twins in the past have shown a tendency to go after average starting pitchers who can average 6 innings and then put together a better than average bullpen for a net better than league average pitching staff that gives the team a chance to win a better than average amount of time especially if the offense is slightly above average or better. Is that type of thinking that goes into the how the Twins put together a pitching staff?

On #5 Doug Descenzo (probably not spelled right) played for the Cubs as a back up OF swapped with the pitcher a few times in the late 80's.

Both the Rangers and Twins could kick in some money to even out the trade some but Andrus is owed 120 million while the other 2 players mentioned have yet to go to arbitration. We may need to expand that trade a little more to even things out a little but it is a good framework to start with.

Joe Nathan is now a free agent after declining his player option with the Rangers yesterday.

I think they will tender Deunsing. He doesn't make that much. There is room in the budget for him. 1. The Twins will sign 2-3 Starting Pitchers ( Lets hope they get good ones) 2. We also hope they sign a player with offensive potential for 1B (Hart is our favorite but there are others too...Morneau...) 3. I would like to see the Twins sign a MI who can play SS as a back up in case Florimon slumps for extended period (Punto maybe) but I guess that is going to be Bernier and Beresford next season waiting in AAA. Because there is so much wait and see regarding the position player prospects who are coming up next year I don't see the Twins involved in major trades until after next season when they see what they have unless they determine to unload a reliever or an OF like Presley or a player they are ready to move on from Parmelee, Colabello, or eventually Plouffe if he doesn't prove he fully belongs next year.

Ubaldo is the only one likely to cost 15 million or so per season. Nolasco and maybe Ubaldo are the only ones worth 4 years on a contract. If the Twins sign one of these and another one like Vargas or Hughes at 8-10 million on a short term contract 1-3 seasons then They won't break the bank to sign these guys. I would be surprised if they get Nolasco or Ubaldo. So we could have a rotation of: Nolasco Vargas Deduno Correia Gibson/Pelfry with a bunch of capable 6th and 7th starters Albers/ Diamond/ Worely/ Hendriks/ Meyer and more...

When drawing up offseason plans remember the Twins operating slogan. Which goes something like this....Why pay 50 million for Ubaldo when I can get pitchers who are 75-85% as good for over half off? This way the Twins get the better production value. It does lead to a lesser rotation but with the strong bullpen the pitching is still vastly improved and could be average to slightly better than average while spending is not out of hand with dollars or long term contracts. That is why I see the Twins going after starters like Yoon, Pelfry, Colby Lewis, Scott Baker, Campuano, Hughes, Messinger,and there is a fair amount more to choose from. Terry Ryan did say he was willing to give up a second round draft pick to sign a pitcher but that would have to be someone whose market value is hurt because of the draft pick compensation like Lohse was last year and the pitcher would still need to be a fit for that to happen. I doubt that situation will arise this winter since there is more money to spend. I think Twins fans myself included would love to see them go out and spend 50 million or more on a free agent just to see them do it and get a player of that type of caliber but I don't see it realistically happening. And I really don't see the need either (ok maybe 1 starting pitcher for that type of contract maybe) since we have several pitchers on the way up after next year and several more the next 2 years after.

Baker is looking for the right situation. He can build value here and he knows it. I remember interviews he gave saying he did like it here. He is a flyball pitcher so here would be a good option for him and he knows that. But I guarantee you the 5.5 million the Cubs offered was probably more than twice what we offered which is why he hurried out the door. I did also offer baker as an option in Shanes comment section of his offseason plans in one of my posts. but Baker is only that ....an option. There are lots of those. I see the Twins signing the likes of Yoon, Pelfry and a Campuano/ Baker/ Messinger type for the rotation. Hughes if we are lucky. I would love to see the Twins go after Santana or Ubaldo but the difference in Ubaldo and 3 starting pitchers is not enough to make the Twins spend on him. That has always been the Twins MO.

www.mlbtraderumors.com is projecting 1 year 8 million for Hughes. i don't have the direct link but it was in there the other day so its not too far down. Also when have the Twins ever paid top dollar for a free agent. Anyone trying to guess offseason moves should start with that in mind. They may do 1 signing for a pitcher with our payroll availablitily to sell tickets but not likely. Pelfry, Yoon and Hughes should cost in the neighborhood of 2/16 Pelfry, 2/10 Yoon and 1/8-9 for Hughes Thats 34-35 million committed to starting pitching for This year and next. Short term contracts that wont handcuff the team when the big time prospects are up and ready to go.

Chuck Knoblauch

Campuano is someone I forgot about. You can add him to the Pelfry, Yoon and Campuano types. I can see the Twins signing 2 of them as they will not be expensive. I don't see any big name pitchers coming here because we are in too much of a transition here. Most elite pitchers know we have 3 OF prospects, 3B, C that we are breaking into the big leagues over the next 2 years. Who wants to wait 2 seasons to be stable on the Diamond again. Hughes won't be signed unless the contract is a value for the team so 3/39 is out of the Question. A 1 year 8 million maybe. Hughes did have an awful year last year. we could add an option year or go higher for the 1 year. Hughes may have the talent but hasn't shown or earned it so if the bidding for him goes to 3/39 it won't be us getting him. Hart would be a great pickup for us if we do not resign Morneau. I would be really happy if the Twins would sign one of Ubaldo or Santana to go with above pitchers to fill out the rotation, but I don't see the Twins doing that unless it gets mandated from ownership to overpay for one of these guys for ticket sales. Also I forgot about Romero. He does deserve a chance to come up and play a little bit. I was thinking Punto who could play some SS and 3rd but Romero can handle 3rd defensively if Plouffe is not improving there. Shane has some real good ideas. Though there is no way the Twins will go extreme. Plus Willingham could rebound and sign a 2 year extension to DH...it could happen for the right price.

I hope the Twins go after either Santana or Ubaldo. I am getting worried that the Twins will just sign Pelfry and Yoon and call it a day keeping the financial commitment to a minimum.

I am not sure if the cost benefit is there with Drew at SS. He would cost us around 10-13 million per season as we have to overpay the other teams that want him and Florimon costs 500k and is better defensively negating some of the offense that Drew brings.

Earlier I posted about how I believe the Twins built their pitching staffs in the past with a low cost but effective bullpen and an average rotation to get a better team ERA without risking too much money or too many years. Then to make their staff even better a strong defense to help minimize the total number of runs allowed. Today we will look at the offense and some trends from their past and how they appear to be moving in a similar direction in the future. From 2001 and on the Twins have for the most part targeted 2 different types of hitters. 1 is the .270-.290 Average 15-25 HR 75-85 RBI (Jacques Jones, Hunter, Cuddyer, Mauer, but he has average, Morneau but with a little more power and RBI, Kubel, Koskie, Hardy though he didn't hit like that here, and Lawton, Willingham, Arcia, Plouffe, Colabello almost and Parmalee almost and the other type of hitter is the "piranha" .270-.300 Ave .310-.340 OBP and .310-.340 SLG (Punto, Redmond, Tyner, Rivas, Guzman, Orlando Hudson, Span with more OBP, Revere, Mastroianni, and Buxton . There are others for both groups. some who were signed to be in one of the groups and didn't work out. Crede, Devon White, Lamb, And Bautista at 3B if I remember correctly. The Twins tend to go after the first group because of the power added to the lineup at 20 up to 50% of the cost of a 35-40 HR hitter with 80% of the RBI's so that is maximizing the value from those players. The other class the "piranha's"(Even cheaper than the first group) in my opinion are brought on because they have the ability to get hits, put the ball in play which allows the Twins to take advantage of another market inefficiency running the bases aggressively. They take the extra base, hit and run, bunt, steal but not as much, go from first to third on singles and doing these things put pressure on the oppositions defense to make the plays. Parker Hageman published an article on this a few ears ago that I can not find about the way the Twins take the extra base and go from 1rst to 3rd one of the most in the leagues. Which is likely one of the biggest reasons the Twins are one of the better than average scoring teams with one of the lowest total team power. If aggressively running the bases and bunts and steals and hit and runs help the team score an extra 30-40 runs per season and the defense can save the team an extra 30-40 runs per season and the pitching and offense are both slightly above average then you have the formula for a winning ball club that should theoretically score 100 more than it gives up. What is the Pythagorean win total of a team who scores 80 - 100 runs more than they give up? There is one more thing the Twins do that I will write about later.

The offseason will be very simple. I do not see a lot of moves coming. the bullpen is set with more than enough options so we could trade from there. I do not see us getting a SS to replace Florimon. Florimon's bat is weak but does have some value, but his defense is elite or very near elite and he is inexpensive the next 2-3 seasons. Dozier is set at 2nd, Sano will be moving into 3rd so we should be fine with Plouffe for now. 1B could use an upgrade (Cory Hart or Morneau is fine but I doubt we see Morneau. Although if you could believe Plouffe, Parmelee, Colabello, Doumit, Mauer, and Willingham can all take turns manning the position. We have enough OF till Hicks, Rosario, Buxton, and Arcia take over. So for the offseason we will likely resign Pelfry and one of Hughes, Ervin Santana, or Ubaldo Jiminez. I am willing to bet when Terry Ryan says he will sign a pitcher and give up a second round draft pick he is referring to getting a pitcher type deal that Lohse received a below market contract because of his status of receiving a qualifying offer and only in this instance will he be willing to give one up. If we don't get Pelfry we will go after another 2nd tier starter maybe Scott Baker... 1B may be upgraded but not urgent at this point... and I think we trade or sign and rule 5 for some more prospects. I would like to see the Twins maybe sign Punto as he is now a great fit for our team as someone who can step in and play some SS and 3rd.

Also the best thing about someone like Ubaldo is the number of years required to sign him won't be too long. He will likely get a 3 or at most 4 year deal. The dollars won't be prohibitive with their budget regardless of how much he makes per season. I agree with the 3 year 39 million assesment. Maybe the Twins can tack on an option year with a 3 million buyout to increase the cash guarentee to get him signed. Note: I am indifferent on who they sign this offseason as long as we are seeing progress towards the future (seeing our prospects advance) I don't care what they do this offseason in terms of quick fixes as i do not see us being competetive the next 2 seasons.

Cleveland went over budget last season. I dont see them offering a qualified offer. So we should be good to go without losing the draft pick. He is one of the pitchers I can see Minnesota signing.

There is not 1 signing over another that is going to make or break the future of this team. So i could care less that the Twins didn't win the last player contract as there will be others. I am more interested in the Cuban SS prospect that is looking to sign in the next few months than anyone else really. I think we have plenty of pitching prospects to where i think we will be able to put together a good staff from in a few years and we'll probably have a few more after the next draft. I wll be disappointed if we dont end up with at lease one type of prospect...

Isn't next years payroll around 45-50 million at this point? add 75 million posting fee and we have already blown past the budget. Now we just need to pay Tanaka on top of that for next year 10 million and sign another pitcher at 15 million = 150,000,000 spent on players for next year which is way over budget. If the posting fee was 50 million and we resign Pelfry for 5 million we are only a little over budget and the posting fee is a one time expense so we will have more money available after next season. but i doubt this is the way they will build this team.

Seeing as how the Tigers bullpen blew 1 excellent start and put another one of his starts out of reach against Boston in the playoffs I bet the Tigers would like to rethink their bullpen which also goes back to the mean argument I presented with this article. If you have excellent starting and a bad or below average bullpen vs an average rotation and a great bullpen you end up in the same area for team ERA. While the Tigers have the best rotation in the league, they didn't lead the American league in ERA as the Royals did that. When the pitching matches up aggregately then it comes down to inches to who will win the most and for the Twins those inches are found in the other rules I have been posting showing how the Twins gain those inches. There will be another post coming soon.

In terms of immediate impact, I can see the Twins with Pelfry and one of Ubaldo Jimenez, Kazmir, Hughes, Baker, and the guy who used to be Fausto Carmona. That would be cool if the Twins signed Yoon too to compete for the 5th starter. I think the Twins will not want more than 3 years on any contract as there is a wave of prospects coming. Unless the Twins somehow end up with Tanaka, which I do not see happening. I do see the Twins signing some more international prospects over the winter who can pitch. I also see the Twins going after pitchers in next years draft so we will soon have an embarrassment of riches in SP in the minors.

1) The Twins will make a bid for Masahiro Tanaka but will come up short of thewinning post I agree with this statement 100% 2) A veteran catcher will be signed. I disagree with this statement 100% 3) Terry Ryan will hand out the largest free agent contract in franchisehistory. I am going to reluctantly agree with you asI don’t think Terry Ryan wants to but may be pressured to from the front officeand fans to the point of having too. Thatcontract may require the option to be exercised to work. 4) Miguel Sano will emerge as the favorite to start 2014 at third base. I 100% disagree with thisstatement. If this happens its becauseTerry Ryan doesn’t do #3 and they need to show fans hope or something along thelines of future greatness. 5) Brian Duensing will be non-tendered. I 98% disagreewith this statement as he is liked on this team and effective and not tooexpensive compared to where payroll needs to be. But we’ll find out quickly though as theTwins are usually nice in that they do those moves quickly to give the playermore of a chance to find work. My 5 predictions: 1. The Twins will resign Pelfry 2. The Twins will find another international gem prospect that flies under the radar and sign him during the offseason. They will spend about 3 million of their 4million or so allotted to them thus wasting an opportunity to max out and get more international prospects. 3. The Twins will sign a backup if who can play SS or 3rd and play well defensively while being able to hit occasionally (I can see a Punto reunion here if he doesn't resign with the Dodgers) 4. I can see the Twins signing a SP who is coming off of injuries/ ineffectiveness to a lower base contract with incentives and options to make the contract the largest in Twins history. (Colby Lewis, Josh Johnson, Phil Hughes...someone with upside and a name but down on their luck who could benefit playing here but still be signed on Terry Ryans terms) 5. I wish I could say that There will be a platoon at 1b with Parmelee and Colabello next year with a dash of Plouffe and Mauer when Sano is ready or Mauer needs a break but instead I'll go with the Twins resign Morneau to a 1 year deal because no one else will and the Twins are not smart enough to try a platoon.

i dont think the twins should do too much this offseason. sign 2 starting pitchers and a SS to compete with Florimon who could also play 3rd would be nice and maybe a 1B then wait to see which prospects are developing and go from there.

I liked that we have C+ or better prospects at almost all positions.