Brandon

Terry Ryan has a formula for winning baseball on a budget and I am going to do my best to explain most of the concepts so we can have a clear picture of how the Twins won and being reconstructed to win again. Rule number 1. Winning is a team concept. The Twins have always been a team that is better than the sum of all parts. There is a science to this and I am about to show you. Pitching Rule #2: You don't need an ace to win, you need 5 solid starters. What did I just say. We don't need an ace, but we had Santana all those years... One of the most successful seasons in franchise history was the 2010 Twins team. If you go back and look at the rotation, we had Pavano 220 innings 3.75 ERA, Liriano (almost an ace) with 191.2 innings and 3.62 ERA, Baker 170.1/ 4.49, Blackburn 161 / 5.42 and Slowey 155 / 4.45. Pelfry, Corriea, Dedunno, and 2012 Diamond fit that mold. In 2010 the team used primarily 6 starters as Deunsing did get 13 starts and had 130 innings / 2.62 for season including bullpen time. Now I am not saying we couldn't use an ace if there was an affordable one out there. Corriea costs just 4.5 million this year Pelfry will not be expensive to resign either should we go that route. Here is the True formula for Pitching Rule #3: For winning plus cost control follow formula below. 6 innings from starters with 4.00 ERA = 2.67 earned runs per game + 3 innings of 3.30 ERA from bullpen = 1.1 earned runs per game = 3.77 Team ERA. How good would our team be if we had a 3.77 team era? The bullpen did their part this year on this equation. And we'll get to them in a few. The media and stat heads focus on K's and BB's and that's part of it but ultimately the question is can we have a pitcher with a 4.00 era that pitches between 180 and 200 innings. That type of pitcher keeps us in the ball games so the other aspects of winning can take over and those pitchers don't break the bank. Radke made 9 million per season, Pavano 8 million for 2 seasons, Santana was the ace that got paid 42 over 4 if I remember correctly, but outside there wasn't many expensive contracts....(there was the mistake of Mays and Blackburns extentions). Now we get to the bullpen where it helps to currently be 9 deep and relatively inexpensive for at least 2 more seasons, (Perkins, Burton, Fien, Deunsing, Swarzak, Pressly, Reonicke, Theilbar, and Tonklin) The Twins have several generations of relievers who were inexpensive and let go when they became expensive. Look at all of the savings by having the ability to find inexpensive arms Rule #4 The bullpen is a great way to gain wins at a minimal cost. Here is a list of pitchers let go after they became too expensive. 1. Hawkins from 1995-2003 cost us 9 million then cost the Cubs 7.5 for the next 2 seasons. 2. Guardado 12 seasons for 9.5 million vs 16 million for 3 in Seattle 3. Guerrier 7 seasons for 6,650,000 vs LA 3 year 9 million 4. Crain 7 seasons for 5,900,000 vs Chi 3 year 13 million 5. Rincon 7 seasons around 6 million but he was done after that 6. Ron Mahay made 8 million in 2 seasons before coming here on a contract for less than 1 million. 7. Nathan made from 2004-2008 17,500,000 before signing the one big deal 4 year 47 million Capps is under Bill Smith so I am not counting him for this exercise. so we received 51 seasons for a total of 93 million with almost 65 going to Nathan vs 15 seasons for 67 million (14 for Nathan at Texas, 8 for Mahay before coming to Twins, Plus the contract Guardado, Hawkins, Crain, Guerrier signed after leaving the Twins) Rule#5 Defense wins games: The Twins have built there teams with an emphasis on playing solid defense or playing the "Twins way" in 2010 they started to get away from that but I think they are headed back in the right direction here. the early 2000 teams had Hunter, Koskie, and Mientkiewicz anchoring the defense while Jones was really good in LF and Guzman and Rivas were solid MI. the Twins also had Cuddyers Cannon in RF, Span took over CF, then Revere, Bartlett, Hardy and Hudson were also solid MI and of course Punto was good enough to win a gold glove if he stayed at one position long enough. Today we are returning back to those roots as we have Mauer (hopefully) at C, Dozier and Florimon in MI, Hicks and soon Buxton in the OF. If Sano can become a plus defender at 3B watchout. Rule#6 Smart baserunning is the hidden secret to the Twins scoring so much without hitting the expensive longball. The Twins were never the team to lead the league in stolen bases but they did execute more bunts, bunt singles to get on base, run from 1B to 3B on a single Sometimes the Twins over executed this one. how many times did we write about Ulger blowing a call? I think Hageman wrote an article about going 1b to 3b once and Twinsgeek wrote about the statistical analysis of the likeliness someone scores when on each base with 0,1,or 2 outs. wish I had the links for you on this one. the offensive rule is kindof hard to describe. there is basically 2 parts to it. Rule #7 The lineup is better off with 20 HR /75-85RBI or .270/.330/.370 hitters 1-8 than 1 35HR hitter and several holes in the lineup. The Twins didn't really go for the HR hitters too much. They liked the guy who would hit 20 HR and 75-85 RBI. Those hitters are more than half the cost at 3/4 the production. The Twins had several of these hitters: Shannon Stewart, Jones, Hunter, Koskie, Cuddyer, Kubel, Crede, Mientkiewicz (minus the power) Hardy, Morneau (though he was also one of their allstars with Mauer) Of those only Hunter became really expensive and that was more star power and defense in CF than just his hitting again Morneau's contract was from when he was MVP caliber. The other type of hitter listed is effective too. the "piranhas" scored runs because they could get on base and run them aggressively. So where that leaves us is with a lineup with some development still going on Arcia, Rosario, Dozier, Hicks, and more as the next wave of the 20 HR 75-85 rbi guys (Arcia has a chance to be more) Buxton is the superstar Piranha with power. (I can't wait to see him score from first on a single). Sano is the future MVP slugger. Florimon and maybe Hicks, Mastroianni form the piranha club. The club appears to be just a few development years for a few players and a few starting pitchers away from being the same old winning Twins we all know and love. be patient. we've seen the blueprint before and it is in progress again. with this model it takes all parts contributing to Win. but this formula does work as we had 6 division titles in 9 seasons and with the stadium we should be able to keep some of the players a little longer this go round so the minor league system will have more time to develop the following round of Twins as this is an on gong cycle.

I am going to go on record as a big Terry Ryan supporter. First of all THe Twins are innovative. They were the first to take advantage of defense and bullpen strength as an inexpensive advantage to add wins. Another trademark is to limit walks and throw strikes. The problem right now is too many prospects aren't making it the way we hoped. Plouffe hasn't hit, Gibson hasnt made it yet, Hicks slumped badly, and Arcia strikes out way too much. Plus the Veterans this year didnt contribute as liked either Morneau, Willingham, and Doumit each had down season. However the Twins offseason moves all worked out to some degree. (Worely would be the exception but May has made incremental improvements). Corriea made the move to the AL way better than we expected, Pelfry was ok after the beginning of the season, the bullpen was stellar, Dedunno worked out till he was injured. The bottom line is this is a well run organization and hopefully the Twins will sign a piece or 2 over the winter and some of our prospects step up and develop and if there is a good platoon situation for 1B next season they do that (Colabello, Plouffe, Mauer, Parmelee). Somewhere within those 4 players is 2 that combine to make a good 1B and bat off the bench.

I think in this day and age he may need to get to 500 saves to get in. Mariano and Hoffman both have over 600 saves. If he has another 2 seasons though I think he will at least have an argument.

So were tied with the Cubs for the 4th pick going into the last day of the season. How exciting is this that it comes down to the last game of the season to determine who gets the 4th pick in the draft. Too bad the Cubs have the advantage in case of a tie.

I see us getting either the 4th pick or 5th as Seattle is now 3 games back and has the 6th pick currently but the Twins at 66-92 are only a .5 game back of the Cubs who are 66-93 for the 4th pick. Looks like this one will go down to the wire. I hope the Twins pull this one out. (and get the 4th pick)

Next season or 3 Mauer can platoon at First and C with Plouffe or Colabello being the Right Handed 1B and Pinto at C. Mauer can Catch 60-100 games and play 1B 50-90 games depending on health and how the complimentary parts are playing/ hitting. I think Mauer has a few seasons left behind the plate. I do think thats where his value is greatest and as long as he isnt worn out he'll be able to hit.

How shocked would everyone be if Pohlad showed up at the Winter Meetings to facilitate an ownership mandated FA signing like Lincecum or another high end starting pitcher? I could almost see this as something planned to bring about fan interest this winter. the stage has been set with Pohlad saying we can spend the money and Ryan saying lets wait....

I am pretty confident the Twins won't sign one of the 12-16 FA's that get a qualifying offer this offseason. They will likely have their second round pick. At this point isn't that pick the main thing we are playing (losing) for this season? The goal based on what I am reading above is to be able to have an opportunity to get one of those 94MPH hurlers with the 2nd pick if one is even available at that point or someone who is basically late first round talent that is pushed back due to the deep draft. The first pick appears to be a solid one no matter if we pick 4, 5 or 6. I wanted to add we are now only .5 game out of 4th pick (currently Cubs) in the reverse standings and 1.5 games ahead of the 6th pick (Seattle)

as of yesterday we were 1.5 games out of 4th pick from the Cubs and Seattle was only 1 game back of us for the 6th pick. It seems a safe bet we won't drop any lower than that. right now just rootin for the Cubs so we can get the 4th pick next year.

If the Twins signed Tanaka and an offensive SS with decent defense I would consider the offseason a huge success. If they wait one more year to go after free agents so the next core can make their way to the Twins and get their feet wet I am ok with that too. but after that the Twins need to spend money.

I wonder if he can still be a great SP prospect with his 97 MPH fastball instead of OF

You rarely see teams trade prospects for prospects. so if you plan on trading any of them we would be better served waiting till our core is up and we are ready to trade for some teams pitchers that is looking to rebuild, and in that case they will want more if we are getting the pitcher we want.

I'll throw this out there, 5 year contract totaling 80 million for both posting fee and contract or 6 years with 90 million total cost. Either one would about be an appropriate limit.

Baker, Santana, Pelfry, Hughes, Colby Lewis, Randy Messenger are some of the names I can see the Twins pursuing none are too expensive. Tanaka (the Japanese pitcher who should be posted this offseason) is the only potential starter they could go after that will cost a fair amount of money. I just don't see the Twins going after someone like Lincecum, Garza (again), Josh Johnson...

In 2015 i'll go to a game. But for now I skipped the Twins when they came to Texas to play the Rangers after they traded Morneau. It just didnt seem like now is the time to go to a Twins game. Better to wait till they decide its time to play better baseball.

I wonder if Parmelee and Colabello would make a good platoon at either 1b or RF next year.

There are several ways to build a pitching staff. The Twins appear to be focused on a more cost effective plan of average starting and inexpensive deep bullpen, while Detroit is the other way with a deep rotation and thin rotation bullpen. There are other factors that go into a winning team I am not saying Pelfry is the best signing just a highly likely one and one that fits a pattern that I see the Twins doing.

Why sign Pelfry? 3 reasons. 1. We know he wants to be here and is adamant about that. 2 he is solid enough to resign and 3. we still have other holes in the rotation to fill so we wont be done with just 1 signing so we have to get another pitcher or 2. I think the Twins are looking for making a solid 1-5 rotation to do that means having average pitchers capable of throwing 180 - 200 innings.

I think the High Calibre arm is going to be Meyer. So the 2015 rotation would be Meyer/ Pelfry/ Dedunno (at this point if healthy) and hopefully Gibson with one more spot to fill. 2014 rotation is Pelfry/ Corriea/ Dedunno/ Gibson / Diamond, Albers, Logan, DeVries, Worely It would be nice to sign one more pitcher. But why would they with the offense currently in shambles and in transition? 2015 or 2016 is shaping up to be the year we can compete again so the offseason after this one we should expect a major pitcher signing to improve the rotation. in a simpler term 6 innings of 4.0 era + 3 innings of 3 era = 3.67 earned runs per game. if the offense scores 4.33 runs per game then we should have a winning team and compete (Twins have a cost formula for that too I'll post about later).

Pelfry added a pitch in 2012 a cutter to go with hius sinker. the results of that added pitch was a 19 inning sample size plus this year. If the cutter is still good and the sinker is working as he gets the feel back for that pitch he and his experience in the league has grown over time he can be an above average pitcher....look at how much better Lohse has become as he gained experience over the years. Also remember the Twins have a formula to winning games at a minimum cost. that is why we are always clamoring for an ace and why we never feel we are going to win in the post season. see below for the pitching formula again. we only go after aces when we develop them and they come from our system otherwise we go for pitchers in our low cost win formula....I challenge anyone to find a more accurate formula for the type of starting pitcher we go for and why we go for that type of pitcher. Pelfry will be resigned this offseason i can almost guarentee it. Twins formula for FA pitchers is a pitcher capable of throwing 180-200 innings with era around 4.00 K rate around 5-7 per 9 and walk less than 3 per 9 innings. These pitchers are league average and cost much less then an ace or a Sanchez type pitcher. Have that with an above average close to 3.00 bullpen = a score under 4 after 9 innings played on average. with an offense averaging over 4 runs per game = a likely winning scenario more often then not for that starting pitchers turn....multiply times 5 starters = a potential 90 win season. that's how they do it. Examples of FA targets in the past several years.... Burhle until he got too expensive, Pelfry, Corriea, Baker, Colby Lewis, Livian Hernandez, Pavano, (can you name anyone that doesn't fit the above profile that we targeted as a FA)

I think Pelfry is capable of pitching 180 - 210 innings per season with an era around 4.00. That is exactly the kind of starter the Twins want for their current formula of winning plus cost efficiency. Plus his cost on the free agent market wont be too high. He is worth between 2 year 10 million and 3 year 21 million after this season. Twins formula for FA pitchers is a pitcher capable of throwing 180-200 innings with era around 4.00 K rate around 5-7 per 9. These pitchers are league average and cost much less then an ace or a Sanchez type pitcher. Have that with an above average close to 3.00 bullpen = a score under 4 after 9 innings played on average. with an offense averaging over 4 runs per game = a likely winning scenario more often then not for that starting pitchers turn....multiply times 5 starters = a potential 90 win season. that's how they do it. they want to find one ace to increase the odds but that isn't important if they have a rotation that is 6 or 7 deep. right now the Twins probably have some of the best 6 7 and 8 starters in the league just not very good 1,2,or 3 starters. Next season we would have: Pelfry Corriea Diamond Dedunno (if he isn't injured) Gibson then Meyer and hopefully May I am not as bullish at this point for Worely he may have to move back to the National league. I do hope we sign an additional Pitcher this offseason. I think that will depend on how the Twins feel about their offense. This year the offense stepped back. If TR doesn't feel the offense can step forward next year the motivation to get another pitcher may be put off till next offseason.

Ike Davis..... The return of the Ron Davis curse 2nd generation....

We just need to go 9-15 to finish with 70. I think odds are in our favor.

its 502 plate appearances to qualify.

Pelfry (league average) at 5-6 million next year + inexpensive (well above average) bullpen and the fact that Pelfry wants to be here = Terry Ryan formula for inexpensive rotation spot + above average odds for slightly above average pitching in that spot = above average chance to win with average offense. We only need one or 2 above average starting pitchers + 3 average ones to go along with a good bullpen = above league average pitching staff. Resigning Pelfry will help keep that cost down. Twins like keeping costs down. I do not see how this is not an obvious decision to resign him?