Riverbrian

Wasn't BJ Upton to the Braves that drove the Nats and Phillies to pull the trigger on Span and Revere. To every action there is a reaction.

They will obviously try to move an OF... Probably for a Starter. They just might be able to interest the Rays for Archer. Santana, Broxton, Hader are names that could be moved. This David Stearns GM Guy is impressive. He's come along way since he ruined the NBA as commissioner.

The beauty of Twins Daily is the clear display of multiple and different opinions. You have my respect while I completely disagree with you. You are not a man in the wilderness... there are plenty here that agree with you... I'm just not one of those. 1. I'm sure the HOF discription was embellishment and I think the aging process that we all go through is true enough to support your assertion that players fade as they age. You also forgot to mention that pitchers frequently get severe injuries that can shut them down for an entire year and that could be year one of the contract. I won't tell you that Darvish can defy all of that. I will simply tell you that I believe that Darvish has stuff that very few in this league can match or surpass. He can help this team right now and how much help he can provide us at the end of the contract will have to be addressed later. 2. The Twins have clearly identified him as top of the rotation talent. If he fails to be a top of the rotation talent it will be disappointing for everyone but that's like saying... I'm not going to get married because what if my wife hates me. What if she doesn't. As for the Angels... I think the Angels understood how old Pujols would be at the end of the contract. I think the Angels wanted Pujols and paid the price to get Pujols because that was the price. They got who they wanted and I don't think the Angels are hating having him on the roster. I also think the Cardinals were wise at the same time. The clubs were in different situations at the time. It worked out for both. 3. I don't worry about projections... they are a dime a dozen... It only matters what actually happens. But... if the projectors are correct and Santana goes belly up on us... We will need Darvish more than ever. 4. I'm excited about Berrios... I wouldn't bet against him blowing the league away and even making the all-star game. It still has nothing to do with signing Darvish. Berrios is Great... Berrios and Darvish is Great plus Darvish. 5. I assume you mean the Buxton core young players here. Building with them doesn't just mean building with youth only... Building means from any avenue that is open for business. Signing a free agent is building. 6. If... I really hope they can and do. But the "If" that starts your sentence is similar to the "If" that goes in front of Darvish. If Gonsalves and Romero put things together this year... They will pitch in the bigs this year because pitchers don't stay healthy for an entire year. Then you are talking Gonsalves, Romero, Berrios plus Darvish and the declining Santana... The hopefully figuring out Gibson and the whatever Mejia becomes. Might be able to move some of that extra to get Archer. 7. I'm a big super bullpen guy and I plan on remaining a super bullpen guy. I'm a believer. But just because the value of the bullpen has increased in my eyes at least... it doesn't mean the importance of Starting Pitchers or Shortstops has decreased. 8. You have to believe in your development. It's the only way to have sustained runs for success as an organization. Signing Darvish does not impede the development of your farm system. It's only money. The trade you want to make for Archer does.(I'd be ok with that trade myself). Trading for Archer would be like a cannonball through the farm system since you would have to provide those developing players to the Rays to acquire Archer. 9. Some of the other teams players are better than our and some of the other teams players are not. We want the ones who are better. 10. It is my money... it is my time investment... every summer it is my hope and dreams. I would absolutely spend it like this. And I'd say... it's about time as it was spent.

It's going to be hard to not like the Brewers. I'll keep trying but that young GM is doing a helluva job acquiring assets. The team is an amazing combination of Youth, Speed and Power. They had a full OF of Major League Talent and Tantalizing Prospects and it didn't stop them from upgrading at the position. And they still are talking about adding Cain. Acquire your assets... keep acquiring assets... don't worry about log jams... hope for log jams. The Brewers are clearly on the rise. It's gonna be hard to not like them.

The highways are littered with deals that "Didn't work out" as hoped. The highways are littered with prospects that "didn't work out" as hoped. It isn't just pitching...it's every position. Carl Crawford, Jordan Zimmerman, Danny Hultzen, Jesus Montero. Every time you put pen to paper it comes with risk. It isn't a question of "do free agent pitching contracts work out". It's all about the CBA and how things are structured. Players have no free agent rights for 6 years. During this time they are controllable. 3 Years at Minimum Salary, Arbitration for the next three years. There is very little they can do about it. Once a player reaches Free Agent Status... it's a free for all. The player finally has some say. It isn't a question of will it work out? It's a free market question of how much do you pay to acquire the player. The price is the price. The Risk is constant... it isn't enhanced... it isn't diminished... it's just more expensive. Small market teams can and do stay away from the big free agent contracts and it a lot of cases they are lucky because things don't blow up in their face expensively if they stay away. However... in the end... it simply closes the door on another source of acquiring talent that the larger market teams keep open and this makes it harder to compete. I'm not saying they can't compete but it's like cooking something without ingredients that others are using. They can come out a little bland in the end. When you sign someone to a big contract... like Darvish... When you extend someone... Like Hughes. When you trade a big name player for prospects... Like DeLeon. There is risk every single time. That risk just is what it is and you got to do what you got to do... but they are risks you have to take... The risk has to be baked in. Use all the ingredients when building your baseball team.

Could Be. I won’t dismiss your reasoning. Nor Mine.

Rumors are rumors but there are rumors the D-Backs are shopping him. True? Not true? IDK My theory... they would have to eat cash because they already went over value to outbid others to sign him.

Andy Benes asked me the same question. I replied back “Mr. Big Stuff”. True Story... except it probably wasn’t Andy Benes.

If I was forced to guess. BTW... I’m not forced to guess yet here I am guessing anyway. I’m guessing the Rangers swoop and piss me off.

I agree... The Cubs are scary with that payroll and swagger and Darvish just might end up in Chicago... But I still can't shake the obvious sign that seem to be pinching pennies. These are the Cubs not the Rays. They let Davis go and decided to sign 3 relievers for 10 million less. They Signed Gimenez with Avila still on the table. They reportedly low balled Cobb trying to get him for Chatwood Money. (may not be true) And where are they with Arrieta. Offer him a contract.. he won a World Series and Cy Young with your team. You know Him... Why is there any kind of dance going on whatsoever unless you are trying to pinch those pennies. These are the Cubs... Does any of this sound like the Cubs? Maybe all of this has been done to collect a few extra dollars to sign the big prize Darvish... I don't know... But... The Cubs can walk in the room and meet the price of any player they'd like to have. No matter the rumors I'm hearing... The Cubs actions thus far in free agency sure smell like a team under a budget.

Could be Or... Maybe they are be preemptive. Putting potential roadblocks in the way for other potential suitors. In case all things are equal. It's just a minor league deal for Gimenez. The Cubs can still go out and sign Avila and leave Gimenez in Iowa. Maybe they are thinking... Darvish likes Gimenez... let's grab him before Texas, Minnesota or Milwaukee does and see if it increases our chances and decreases the chances of the competition in case all things are equal or close to equal. I imagine the contract discussions are being held with the Agent and not Darvish directly. It's hard to believe that the Agent while trying to negotiate the deal of Yu's lifetime is saying "Yeah it's 150 Million plus Gimenez has to be on the 25 man or no deal". I can't imagine the agent saying it's 120 Million in Minnesota.... 100 Million in Chicago but the Cubs have Gimenez. To which Darvish replies "It only costs me 20 million to play Gimenez again?". Where do I sign. I think it is quite possible that Chicago needs a cheap catcher for depth and if it Darvish likes it... Bonus.

If by Boras you mean Joel Wolfe of Wasserman Media Group. I don't believe that Darvish will be holding out for 6 years while turning down 5 so he can stay on the sidelines without a team into May. If he did... his tweets would get interesting. Anyway... It's my opinion that whenever anyone says... I will do X years but not Y Years or I will do X amount of dollars but not Y amount of dollars. You end up X and Y'ing yourself out of the top end of Free Agency. You are turning off that spigot forever. If you are waiting for that 27 year FA that makes a 6 year contract less risky... so is every other team and his value goes up accordingly. And... those agents like to throw you a curve ball and ask for a 10 year deal with the 27 year old so you pay to age 37 anyway. The price of a free agent is the price of a free agent and drawing a line in the sand will only get you a line in the sand. If you want the player... You have to pay the price that will complete the transaction. You obviously don't want the player. We disagree on that... I want the player.

Born in Stillwater High School in Stillwater. College at the U of M. Drafted by the Minnesota Twins Entire Career Spent with the Twins Organization He couldn't be more one of us... even if he spent his retirement walking around the lakes cleaning Zebra Mussels and Pondweed off of boats. I finding my biggest hat to tip to him.

Darvish Break the Bank

I'm sitting here praying that the front office can see the (what seems to be) bright neon sign that indicates that the moment is RIGHT NOW!!! I think the original post is an interesting argument, it's a great thought/discussion producing post and I tip my hat. However... To answer the OP question posed: In my opinion the answer is both Yes and Emphatically NO at the same time. It's Yes: Because the Rookies are going to get that shot you are suggesting. It's nearly 100% guarenteed. It doesn't matter if they break camp with the club. By the time the season is over... We will need one or two or three or four of... Gonsalves, Romero, Jorge, Littrell, Thorpe, Enns, Duffey and Slegers to show up and do something for us during the season. Pitchers just don't stay healthy for an entire year. We will be counting on the rookies on the mound this year. It's also an emphatic NO: Because... what other skies need to open up before the Twins spend some money that could theoretically help a progressing team? 1. A young team just made the playoffs and exhibited clear signs that they have some offensive and defensive talent that can produce wins. Go Get a difference maker... The time is now! 2. The Tigers, White Sox and Royals are all either rebuilding or starting a rebuild and therefore potentially weaker (on paper of course). It's also important to note that if we wait for our youngsters to fully mature like 2019 is the real year. The White Sox young core will be maturing along with us. There will always be a team to contend with... no matter how well you try to time that window. Go get a front line starter... The Time is Now! 3. We have actual starting pitching replacement depth for once. This is huge... it shouldn't be wasted. We need to consider that considerable depth in Rochester a huge plus. It shouldn't be compromised or rushed. A lot of people tend to look at spots 1-5 and mistakenly think that's all we have room for. History has shown that Spots 6 through 10 are also critical. The problem is that you can't store experienced non-AAAA arms in Rochester... you can only store players with options. With all the talk about windows of opportunity. The context is always: Is it 2018 or 2019 when that window begins? I look at this way. Having actual starting pitching depth possibly MLB ready in Rochester should be considered a WINDOW by itself. That's the true Window because very rarely do the stars align where an organization can say they have 5 or 6 MLB ready guys with options waiting in line stashed in AAA. We seem to be coming out of the darkness. We used to call up guys like Matt Fox, Cole DeVries, PJ Walters, Esmerling Vasquez, Andrew Albers, Johan Pino, Logan Darnell, Kris Johnson and Pat Dean to fill in for the injured. In 2018... we are looking at rookie replacements who are actually held in high regard, actually considered to be legit prospects. We have the luxury... (I can't believe I used the word luxury in context of the TWINS) of watching 5 young arms compete in Rochester for the next man up. We have the luxury of trying the next man up after the first next man up... if the first next man up doesn't get it done. This is a WINDOW that should not be taken for granted because it doesn't come along that often and it is very hard to replicate. You augment this window by signing someone at the Top End!!! Adding an average arm with experience doesn't augment this window. It just adds to the depth that is already there. Go get a Front Line Starter... A difference maker. The Time is NOW!!! 4. Teams are watching their pennies this year. The big boys can always make a free agent signing cost prohibitive for us in normal years. With the Dodgers and Yankees trying to stay under the cap, with other teams saving some financial space for next years class. It's reasonable to assume that the Twins don't have to be blown away outbid by those money bag teams this year. Next Year... If we want to go get that guy in FA... Somebody isn't going to get Harper and Machado and have some extra cash to plunk down and blow us away like normal years. This year isn't the year to come up with some sort of algorithm that determines the true metric value of someone. It isn't time to worry about what kind of shell of an athlete will be left over at the end of the contract. The Free Agent Price is the Price, Supply and Demand will determine the Price just like it always has since Chief invented Money back in the old days. If you want a boat... you have to go into the boat store and pay what they are asking. Trying to determine how long the boat will last will only prevent you from getting a boat. There might be a boat sale going on right now and your organization is moving to lakeside property!!! This year is the year to pay the price and go get that front line starter... The time is now. 5. Long Range Plans are in constant need of adjustment and typically long range plans are in such need of adjustment that they need to tossed in the waste basket, forcing you to draw up a new one on the fly. I fully expect that Falvey and Lavine have a long range plan... I really hope they do because good sensible management dictates that a long range plan is drawn up. However... If I thought for a second that either of them actually felt that the long range plan they have drawn up will actually happen... I would tell them that they are wasting their powers of clairvoyance on more profitable opportunities like the stock market or lottery. They will have to make adjustments... not making adjustments on the fly and just sticking to a plan is hubris and I'll have none of that. They shouldn't sign Darvish for the long term implications. They should sign Darvish for the immediate need and fully expect the possibility that Darvish might get hurt, he might regress, or even give up a 5 run 1st inning in game two of the World Series. You buy the boat because that is the price of the boat and you need a boat. You have enough Canoes. Go Get a Front Line Starter... The Time is Now. 6. We have been under 100 million for long enough!!! We have pinched our pennies for long enough!!! I swear to everyone... I have never been a money guy. I have never said that the Twins should just go pick up a couple players at high dollar for the hell of it. I firmly believe that a team in the bottom third of payroll can win it all. I firmly believe that money isn't the answer. But we've been under 100 million long enough!!! We are in contention... we have a clear need for a front line starter... a difference maker... the Time is Now.

Exactly!!! Following Free Agent Rumors produces the same feeling as this.

Actually... I am the only one. Bring your Green Hat!!! http://worldseriesdreaming.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/streaking.jpg

Uff Da. The Vikings lose and now this.

It is so hard to imagine what is going on this year... or any year with these free agent offers. There is no reason for information to get out accidentally. The front offices and agents are professionals... they should be able to remain tight lipped. Unless the release of information serves some sort of purpose. I could imagine his agent floating Milwaukee rumors to get Texas or Minnesota or the Cubs to bring the range of numbers discussed up. I can imagine Milwaukee floating Darvish rumors to get the range of numbers discussed down on Cobb or Lynn. I don't trust rumors but I do see them as a form of some sort of movement. Even if it is a weak attempt at leverage on either side. I can imagine... Minnesota having discussions at the highest dollar amount. I can imagine... the Twins not wanting to bid against themselves. I can imagine... teams backing off on the big scary long contracts that rarely work out for the length of them. I can also imagine... Darvish wanting the Rangers to get serious so he can play where his American home is and where he has built some comfort. I don't like the waiting for the Rangers part because they just might. Meanwhile... I can also imagine teams that were not previously in... Like the Brewers getting in. Because maybe they are facing difficulties on the their other pursuits. Maybe they are saying that if Cobb is sticking to asking for 16 Million AAV and the Twins are discussing around 20 Million AAV on Darvish... Then thinking... Might as well call Darvish. I can imagine teams that were not previously in... getting in... because the price tag discussions are significantly lower than the original ask. I also imagine... that the longer this goes... the worse it is for the Twins... because... time isn't our friend. Time allows the Rangers time to fail at other pursuits and just get the deal done. Time is time for more teams to jump in at the 11th hour. I'm hoping the Twins are working the phone hard on Plan B so they can say to Darvish... Sign now or we are trading for Plan B and then officially out. Waiting for Plan A... I'm starting to Blink.

I don't believe that "Long Man" is even the slightest bit necessary anymore. I know it is different in the playoffs. I know that 162 games is a grind and therefore different than the playoffs... but... look what Girardi did to us in WC Game. We jumped on their Ace Severino and he lasted one third of an inning. Chad Green comes in early and pitches two innings and then Robertson for 3.1 followed by Kahnle for for 2.1 and then Chapman for the 9th. No long man and a frustrated Twins lineup. The Twins countered that with: Santana 2.0 Berrios 3.0 Hildenberger 1.1 Rogers .1 Busenitz .1 Belisle 1 Molitor treated Berrios like a long man and if the Twins advanced. The starting rotation was compromised. There is only one answer in my opinion. 7 Guys in the Bullpen... 7 Guys who are all trusted and can all knock you out. Load it up!!! Your top gun in the bullpen gets used like Andrew Miller. Pitch when backs are against the wall and you need someone. You can also name a dedicated closer for value purposes. Pitchers will want that role because it tends to pay more in the current climate. After that... No Dedicated 8th or 7th inning guy... No Dedicated Long Man. Use the guy who is rested and ready. pitching well and matches up well with batting order you are facing. Don't name a set up guy and try to ride him out when he is struggling. Give the ball to those who are performing at the time. Have enough talent to be flexible and let it rock. That's how I'd do it and the Twins are pretty close to being able to execute this way. The Pen has potential and there is significant replacement depth in the minors.

I'm not advocating a weak 9th inning closer. I'm greedy... I want a bullpen full of guys who get people out with authority. However... while we are just entering the age of bullpen enlightenment. The 9th inning will devalue down the road. Bullpens have to be looked at differently.

IMO... Any team that isn't signing, trading for... or creating their own version of Andrew Miller is making a mistake. If this is the plan for Addison Reed... I'm excited about it.

I still contend that the Yankees and Dodgers are out unless they are able to move a significant amount of money. Ellsbury and Kemp will be real hard to move. I believe the Astros are out after Cole. It doesn't look like the Cubs are shopping at the top of the market. It's the Rangers that I worry about and I don't care if Jon Daniels says they are out. They have been rumored to have been holding discussions about Darvish, Arrieta and Greinke this off season. They ain't out.

I'm all for trading for Archer... although... I would be reluctant to give up any starting pitching prospects in return and Tampa seems to always ask for pitching in return. I'd also make Royce Lewis untouchable. I have never seen any of the farm kids play so I don't have any strong opinions on anyone. But... I assume being the 1st pick overall suggests potentially amazing so i'm keeping him and everybody needs pitching and pitching depth so the pitchers would be off limits. Gordon and Kirilloff. I'll trade those guys.

IMO... Sano is at perhaps his lowest possible value right now with his combination of a steel rod in his leg and off field issues. If his true talent level is anywhere near what experts have projected. Trading Sano at his lowest possible value would be tough to explain in future job interviews. If he can hit... let him hit and repair his value. Then you consider trading him. If Sano's value never recovers... if this is the beginning of a downward spiral. We never had a chance because I think we are at the point where nobody rolls the dice until he re-demonstrates he is still Sano... the budding superstar.