Riverbrian

Dude... Your Mellowing my HARSH!!!

I'll wait for Plan B but It may be the only hope.

I really try to give the front office the benefit of the doubt. I'm trying not to assume that they drew a line in the sand with Darvish and lost him over a drawn line when you consider what it takes to land the player you want in Free Agency against competing teams. If the 5 Year 100+Million is true and that was indeed the formal offer. If I knew for sure (I don't) there was any indication that going to 6 years in January would have gotten the deal done... This is what I would say to Falvey and Lavine with all due respect: Moses and Jesus were playing golf. Moses steps up to the tee and drives the ball down the center of the fairway. Jesus is next and he takes a half swing and the ball slices into a pond. A fish then surfaces with the ball in his mouth... an eagle swoops down and grabs the fish in his talons... flies over the green and the ball falls out of the fish and lands in the cup for a hole in one. Jesus smiles at Moses and Moses says... Do you want to play golf or are you just going to screw around? So... Derek and Thad... Do you want to play golf or are you just going to screw around? Again... If... the reported numbers are correct... If a 6 year contract would have gotten the deal done... if they don't have an sensible executable plan B that is better than Anibal Sanchez and at least close to what Yu Darvish would potentially bring. That's would I would say. I get stared at a lot when I speak so I assume they would both stare at me as I'm ushered out of their office.

Yeah Understood... There are shades. I really didn't want to give the impression that it was above 17.4 or bust. I guess my point in a nutshell should have been this: Agents promise players results in order to convince them they should choose them over other agents who are also making result based promises. If you don't get the results? That agent has a current and future problem when it comes to the retention and acquisition of clients. If a player is advised to turn own the QO... It better turn out to be good advice.

And if the QO is 17.4 and possible that Lynn and Cobb turned it down expecting to be around that neighborhood. Darvish signing for 21M AAV seems rather bargain like.

Yes they have. Misreading the market is not rare... especially since it was complicated by the qualifying offer and the accompanying draft pick. And every time it happens... the agent risks losing current and future clients because they are not supposed to misread the market... ever. If a player turns down a QO... They are probably expecting higher AAV. Agents will try to show they gave good advice and hold out for it and as Darvish and others fall off the board and less similar options are available to clubs... they might get it.

Turns out they saw the clip and it slowed the process down. And coincidentally... I got a couple of speeding tickets and a jaywalking in the weeks to follow. I'm sure they were all unrelated... The Jaywalking charge occurred in a restaurant parking lot.

They turned down 17.4 QO. I realize that is only a one year QO but I'm guessing they will want the AAV to be above that or else they got bad advice from the agent.

I had to go to the post office one day. Sometime in March 2015. On the sidewalk outside the front door was a Camera on a tri-pod and a reporter for WDAZ Channel 8 News. As I randomly walked past... I was asked if I was willing to answer a couple of questions for the camera. I didn't want to, I didn't really have the time but agreed... My fault. The reporter was gathering public opinion on a high speed car chase that ended with the suspect getting shot by a University of North Dakota Police Officer. The reporter asked me "Could the actions of the police officer be considered excessive?" and then he put the microphone in my face. I replied: "Someone was shot... that is fairly excessive but police officers will continue to get my benefit of the doubt. It's a real hard and dangerous job. I don't know the circumstances other than it was high speed chase over a couple of counties and that means we have someone who was at the very least an extreme danger to the public over multiple counties and failed to follow the simple instruction that everyone clearly understands... pull over when prompted by the flashing light. I'll give the officer the benefit of the doubt and let his superiors handle it. That was it... I went into the post office and carried on with my day. Shortly after 6:00... I wasn't watching the news but my wife was. I heard her go "OH MY GOD ARE YOU SERIOUS". I walked into the living room to find out why she said that rather loudly. She said: "You defended that guy in the car chase?" Which of course triggered a lot of explaining on my part... from being absolutely clear that I wasn't defending the guy to being absolutely clear that I was defending our law enforcement officials to having to explain what I was doing at the post office. While explaining all of this to my wife... my phone starts going off... I'm getting texts from friends going... WTF? FB Messages suggesting I should wear the uniform for one day. My mother in law called immediately to say I looked nice. I asked my wife to rewind it. I didn't care enough to watch the news as it happened but I was real curious now. The reporter (loosest definition of reporter possible) was trying to force a narrative that the town was divided over the issue. All he used from my entire opinion was: "Someone was shot... that is fairly excessive". He was kind enough to lead into my out of context soundbite with "Some residents are adamant that the police officer had gone too far". In about a second's time... 24 frames? I was placed on the unpopular side of an opinion that wasn't mine... the randomly accidental representative of a criminal and all I wanted to do was apply for a passport. For about a month after that... I would occasionally run into an acquaintance who would say in passing "Saw you on the News". Anyway... the reason I typed all of that. I agree with almost everything you are saying on Darvish and I think you are absolutely right ... BUT... I don't believe we know what was offered or what parameters were discussed. The days of Edward R. Murrow are gone. Commonality in Reporting means nothing. Commonality is an echo. The press are easily manipulated. The audience is easily swayed by emotion. Emotion increases ratings... ratings increases revenue. Rinse and Repeat until facts no longer matter. I'm watching CNN right now and they had a nice long segment on the hero Florida football coach who was killed followed by a long segment on Karen McDougal and I get it because America's Top Model and CNN are coming out of the same Time Warner tap. Long way to go to say... don't trust what you are reading. I personally will never hang the front office over anything reported. I'm simply hanging them because Darvish will be pitching for the Cubs.

Player to be named later?

I'm glad you have optimism because I used to have it and I'm glad its in good hands. . I'm in the "Had" category right now but I realize there is time for the front office to recover. If they couldn't go a 6th year on Darvish... I don't think they go a 4th year on Lynn or Cobb. Someone else will

The Twins are not going to sign 3 or 4 contracts like this. Slegers moved up to the 4th spot after the Santana injury. I'm calling it right now. Sanchez will be on the roster come opening day.

It seemed like whenever Anibal would face us. He would hang a few zeros and then BOOM... he'd hang a crooked number. It seemed like he couldn't get through the order a 2nd time.

They can't go from Darvish to Tillman without repercussion. They would have been better off not even mentioning the name Yu Darvish.

Nothing in life is free The Twins could have paid cash to get Darvish or the Twins could pay in talent to get Archer Talent seems to be a much steeper price to pay because ultimately you hope to turn cash into talent. I'll never understand not going a 6th year but whatever... the Twins have to do something.

Going into the off season I would have never considered Darvish a realistic possibility. It was the Twins who made me think it was possible. It was the Dodgers and Yankees on the sidelines that made me think it was possible. I got my heart broken when I had originally no intention of going there. The Bee Gees are now playing quietly in the background. How do you mend a broken heart? . When I didn't think Darvish was a possibility... I still wanted the Twins to invest in this club so I was ready for some money to be spent. I posted this back on November 2nd in a different thread. Of course I'm taking a different approach. At those listed terms/dollars. I'm signing Addison Reed Mike Minor Jake McGee Joe Smith That's about 26 Million and I'm spending it. I'm giving Minor the chance to compete for a rotation spot. If it doesn't work out he can always return to the pen. I've seen Pomeranz, Peacock and others return to the rotation and produce extremely well... I believe it can happen again... all it takes is opportunity and this possibility makes Minor my Number 1 Free Agent Target. All of our young arms have options so they can serve as insurance/depth. I'd start 2018 with a Bullpen of Addison Reed Joe Smith Jake McGee Trevor Hildenberger Taylor Rogers Ryan Pressly Alan Busenitz (Busenitz Starts in AAA if Minor is in the Bullpen) Duffey goes to the minors(Sorry he didn't earn the right to stay) I'm also taking a flyer on that Miles Mikolas for 5 Million. With Numbers like that... I'm taking a chance. Win some Lose Some... Roll the Dice. I have no idea what the guy can do... Just rolling the dice because I'm hopeful that he is a miracle. Starters for 2018 Ervin Santana Jose Berrios Mike Minor Kyle Gibson Miles Mikolas Start the Year in Rochester Mejia Gonsalves May That is how I'm adding 31 million to the payroll and making a young competitive team deeper on the mound. I'd like to add a power threat to hit behind Sano but I don't like the options available... So I'm going to kick that can down the road. These guys have been signed and the 31 Million turns out a little light because they cost 38 million total for 2018 alone... not counting the additional years. Reed -- 2018 8.25M Contract 2/16.75 Minor -- 2018 8M Contract 3/28 Mikolas -- 2018 7.75M Contract 2/15.5 McGee -- 2018 7M Contract 3/27 Smith -- 2018 7M Contract 2/15 Anyway... I'm just saying... I never imagined that Darvish was possible until I was led to believe he was possible.

http://s2.quickmeme.com/img/b4/b45d07679de515cf1c0bcdd56f5e5223840a0d8e6283f3b5cb916bf48aac41be.jpg

A better prediction is that Falvey and Lavine will read this thread... continue to monitor it and scratch every guess off their list to show creativity. I think they want to surprise us all and they won't let our guesses ruin the surprise.

The Ask will be too high on the remaining top 3 pitchers and the metrics won't support the price so they will work their way down until the numbers line up and they will prefer a left hander and therefore: Francisco Liriano 1 year deal... March 1st 3:44 PM They won't be able to pull off a decent trade because the Free Agents Asks are too high for the metrics which drives the price of trade acquisition too steep.

I'm troubled

Personally... I don't care if there is an opt-out that is advantageous to the player only. I don't care if he wants a lifetime supply of red vines. If you don't want to include the Red Vines because it isn't in your best interest... if another team is willing... you lost. If you want to make a hard valuation and base it on historical declines and then stick to it to minimize your risk... you might think you are being mathematically responsible but if another team isn't mathematically responsible... you lost. If every other team is doing the same thing... you'll only get the guy who likes Mary Tyler Moore reruns. It really is simple as... if you want the player... you pay the price it takes to get him. Free agency at the top end can't be executed with a hard and fast formula. Free Agents have been held in chains to their club and now they are free. The CBA has allowed major league clubs to control players through their prime years and now teams want to lower the free agent price because they are no longer in their prime years based on hard metrics. Front Offices need to realize that the current CBA is in their advantage. If they want to minimize risk of those decline phase years instead of baking the risk in like they should to acquire the player you want. The players are going to fight back and the next CBA will be a battle over the those prime years. The players are going to want them back because what they had has now been minimized. If the players get those prime years back and become free to negotiate for the highest bidder at a younger age... Good Luck to Minnesota, Pittsburgh, Kansas City, Milwaukee when that happens. Front Offices need to give a little here or gear up for a much bigger fight later that is sure to come. Some may think it's interesting that Tony Clark and the MLB offices are having a press release war. I consider it a portent of things to come.

Now I understand http://www.anitajo.com/geocaching/fp/carol1.jpg

I'll bet a large sum of money that these are not circulated talking points for sales reps to regurgitate in their attempts at keeping or landing one of the 12,000 season ticket holders. If Dave St. Peter or Laura Day read Twinsdaily. Either or both of them have probably already reached out to Mike Clough to make sure that he is stabilizing the loose cannon in the Sales department. If this is legit... You got a hold of this guy. http://static.deathandtaxesmag.com/uploads/2016/07/hart-bochner-harry-ellis-die-hard-eyes.jpg

I appreciate Nick... Always have. He's right... Balance is good... there is a ton of negative flowing right now and his efforts at showing the other side is appreciated by me at least... and necessary. Nick is bravely walking forward into a very stiff wind. We are all disappointed but there is no reason... or proof... that not landing Darvish took us automatically from 90 Wins down to 80 wins by itself.

I believe I read somewhere that the TB Owner Stuart Sternberg has given them a directive to cut payroll. If so... An Archer trade will give them the chance to tuck span into any trade and if that knocks LA and NY out... i'm ok with that. Might even lessen the prospects necessary to complete the trade. It doesn't seem like many teams are willing to take on salary.