Riverbrian

That’s going to be the argument and I admit I don’t know the answer. If a starter can go 7 innings does he have to? Why can’t he throw 3 or 4 instead. If a reliever can go 1 inning why can’t he go 2? How much rest is required in all scenarios? Is it the same for all pitchers? I doubt it? I think the combination possibilities are multiple. The opener concept is simple and it makes perfect sense. But in reality... what Tampa really did starting in May was show everybody that they can consider every other possibility and you don’t have to die with the conventional 5 man rotation if you don’t have 5 decent men.

That's it right there. 27 Outs. I'm amazed that a different sequence will make people resistant.

Once you rub the Twins Fan off of yourself for a moment. The joke is actually kinda funny.

And not all fads are fads. LOL... But I loved the Bell Bottom Reference. Got me thinking about a Eric Clapton song that I'd hadn't thought about in years. And it was always one of my favorite songs ever. I thank you for that.

GM's surprise me all the time but I just can't see the Rockies moving pitching unless they get more of a sure thing back. I think Gray is a good bet for straightening himself out. I wouldn't be selling low on him and if I was the Twins and they asked for Kepler in return... I probably wouldn't take the deal because I would be suspicious that they are giving up on him.

I'd certainly roll the dice on Gray but the thing I question is: What does Colorado accomplish by trading him to us? Colorado is a contender and finding pitching has always been their number one issue while trying to build winners. They certainly don't need prospects or projects (Kepler) in return to fill the offensive holes that are developing... they need proven major league ball-players. Rolling the dice on Kepler seems unnecessarily risky as a return. Trading him to the Cubs for a Schwarber makes more sense to me. Or the Brewers for Aguilar or Thames. But yeah... I'd welcome him to the Twins... I just don't see how we are a match for what the Rockies need.

I think the plan is solid. I have no problem with Dozier coming back on a one year deal but as I have stated numerous times... Not without an alternative for the three months that he struggles. I’d like to see you add a player for that purpose replacing Adrianaza and you left enough money room on the books to do it.

I think people forget about Mejia because he didn’t pitch a ton for us last year and also because people tend to stop at 5 starting pitchers and move on. There are enough Peacock and Pomeranz examples of starters who bounce from starter to reliever to starter again. If he can pitch... be creative and find spot for him.

Looks Good

Defensively, it’s the middle infield that is most concerning. However in total it isn’t that much of a step down from where we were in 2018. Marwin for Dozier might be a step up. Murphy forcAdrianaza is clearly a step down but the bat makes up the difference and Mauer is gone and he plays a position where we have to utilize Austin to see if he works out. If he doesn’t Murphy at first just might work out defensively. On the prices... I’m just not sure at all because last year broke the mold. I used experts predictions for the ballpark and added some millions to be the highest bidder. I will not express any confidence on those guesses. Based on last year... I think too low is still being defined.

I was hesitant to do so because based on last year the prices seem to be in a state of flux. It didn’t take as much as I thought it would to acquire Odorizzi for example. You are right though. I was hoping to keep the current core on the roster and hang on to the next wave by saying the 5 prospects are untouchable. Also you are right that it may require a 40 man trade inclusion to complete the deals. We could include Kepler in the Mancini trade. The identification of Jake Cave as viable does makes that a possibility.

I believe that Marwin will sign with who offers him the most money and a clear path to playing time. He has been waiting for his turn behind a loaded Astro's lineup... I think the Yankees would be more of the same. If I'm Marwin... I'm looking at a team like the Rockies. Talented but about to lose it's 2B and questions marks in the OF.

Back in the 2000's, Analytics started to become prominent in the game of baseball and has grown to the point where every single team has a department solely devoted to analysis. While the use of analytics was in it's infancy there were people saying "baseball has been around since the 1880's" and it is comments like these that delay the arrival of almost every new thing in life because it take real courage to implement something new in the face of these type of comments from people with power and people without power a like. Baseball didn't snap it's fingers and change into full saber metric mode overnight. There was a guy who was working on it in the 50's and didn't real understand the implications. Bill James started publishing in the 70's and was mostly ignored by baseball until a team has success with it. Then once you see a team have success with it... it kind of trickles across the landscape for years (even decades) followed by a flood and then a trickle of the last remaining stragglers. The Twins were in the last remaining straggler group BTW. The opener idea was just introduced... there will be a trickle and until then... those trying to implement are going to have to endure the "Baseball has been around since the 1880's" comments just like... always.

Yeah and there was no chance that I was joking about that.

Marwin can and has played every position besides catcher and pitcher. He's more Zobrist than Zobrist ever was. His original position was 2B I believe but Altuve plays every day so this is how the Astros have deployed him over his career. SS 2243 Innings 1B 1260 Innings OF 1095 Innings (Mostly Left Field) 2B 661 Innings 3B 567 Innings He would immediately become our top defensive player at any of our infield positions in my opinion.

This blueprint won’t appear in the handbook but I’m adding mine in the same format because if anyone is going to come up with the Flexibility and Depth Blueprint… Umm… It would have to be me. There are a couple of non-flexibility factors that make an aggressive approach reasonable in my mind. The American League Central will probably be weak once again. The window was open last year and we failed to take advantage and that window is still open. Kansas City and Detroit are just getting started with the rebuild and Chicago is still a couple of years away and Cleveland is going to lose considerable talent in the off-season and they have been draining that farm trying to stay in contention. I am not one of the people who believe we have to match the Yankees, Red Sox and Astros on paper to win it all. I am one of the people who believe that you have to get in and once you get in… anything can happen and I’m not changing my mind (you can try) so I’m going for it… within reason of course because keeping your farm stocked is critical to future success. The core still has potential, talent and is still inexpensive (Think backup prices). There has been a lot of talk about scrapping this core and moving on to the next core. There is no doubt that the current core has been disappointing but I still believe they have the chance to become special. I believe they have enough MLB at-bats that the prospect designation is gone and when the prospect designation is gone, there is no longer a need to force feed them at-bats for development purposes. I believe they are at the point, where they are going to get it or they are not going to get it and it is up to them to get it and this puts the ball in their corner. Now I don’t believe in the concept of a backup, I only believe in a 25 man roster where everybody is capable of earning playing time. However, I know that most of you believe in backups so with that in mind, I simply ask you to view the core as back-ups. Back-ups that can become starters if they start figuring it out. With some of the core just entering arbitration and some of the core pre-arbitration, they are already being paid backup prices and that is a gift. If these guys are being paid backup prices… why would you spend 4 million on Grossman to be a back-up. It’s a gift that you can pay Buxton 1.3 Million to be the back-up. If you can take your core and pay them backup prices, that allows you the payroll space to go get players that will compete with them and this is an advantage that should not be wasted. But don’t count on them without safety nets. I simply can’t endorse any off-season blueprint that counts on Sano or Buxton as every day players without an acceptable proven alternative in case they fail and we saw why in 2018. Don’t sign a DH only. I believe we will need 13 pitchers slots, that’s one less offensive slot and we can’t afford to burn a roster spot on a player who can’t play a defensive position somewhat capably. With that -- Here is the Flexibility and Depth, still going for it off-season blueprint. PITCHING: I am purposely listing them as pitchers and not listing them as starters or relievers or closers or set-up men. I’m going to try to staff the team with the best 13 pitchers regardless of past designations and then I want the manager figure out how to deploy them unconventionally in the best possible manner with the goal of assigning the most innings to the guys who are getting the most outs. I am making guesses obviously on the prices, could be more, could be less but these are three I’d like to see the Twins go after and I got to try to ballpark the price to put a final salary total on the finished product. J.A. HAPP: ( 2 Years/28 Million) I am not going after Corbin because of the QO, draft pick compensation thing and I assume he will be the most expensive pitcher, and we will have more shopping to do so I’m moving down a peg to JA Happ, who is still pretty good. For those of you that have been waiting for that “ACE”. We will trade for Verlander in July after the Astros are out of it. (I'M JOKING!!!) (Turns out I have to actually say that I'm joking here). (The point is... we can add players at the trade deadline if in contention.) ANDREW MILLER: (2 Years/22 Million) I know he was hurt a bunch last year and that creates risk and doubt for next year and beyond. However, after watching Miller perform prior to last year, I realized (and have said often) that teams should be trading for or building their own Andrew Miller, just like Milwaukee did with Josh Hader. I still think we should do that but while we are in the process of building our own Andrew Miller… let’s just sign Andrew Miller as a placeholder. Until our Andrew Miller is ready. ADAM OTTOVINO: (2 Years/22 Million) He is my other choice because the guy has stuff coming out of his ears. I watched him pitch a couple of times last year and he blew me away as he was blowing the hitters away. THE REST: For those looking through the traditional lens. It totals 7 starters and 6 relievers. This is where a new age manager like I’m Rocco Baldelli can figure things out. Who starts, how long they pitch, how long they rest but with 7 starters on the staff, he will have options to choose from. He will not have to lock into anything with this staff. He can copy what Tampa did with their pitching staff last year or he can invent his own new thing that others will copy. Or he can… pick out 5 starters and rotate them like normal with the other two thrown into the bullpen for length. No closer named, no designated long man waiting for the wheels to come off to make an appearance. No traditional roles at all, just 13 guys who can get people out and a manager who will give the most innings to the best of them. Mejia is out of options he stays, he’s earned it. Romero, I think he is better than the experts say. I’m putting him on 25 man roster opening day. He gets as many innings as he earns. Here are the 13 guys: JOSE BERRIOS 0.6 KYLE GIBSON 7.9 JA HAPP 14.0 JAKE ODORIZZI 9.4 MICHAEL PINADA 8.0 ADALBERTO MEJIA 0.6 FERNANDO ROMERO 0.6 TAYLOR ROGERS 0.6 TREVOR MAY 0.6 TREVERO HILDENBERGER 0.6 ADDISON REED 8.5 ADAM OTTOVINO 11.0 ANDREW MILLER 11.0 40 Man Depth: CHASE DEJONG 0.6 KOHL STEWART 0.6 LEWIS THORPE 0.6 STEPHEN GONSALVES 0.6 ZACH LITTELL 0.6 ALAN BUSENITZ 0.6 GABRIEL MOYA 0.6 CATCHER: I will not overpay for catching… I will not overpay for catching. We already spent too much on Castro. Catcher’s historically do not hit as well as the players at the other positions and catchers require more rest then the other positions because… it gets hot in the summer with all that gear on? Yes Realmuto and Posey are mighty fine hitters but because of position scarcity the value and hitting ability is way out of whack. Take the money you would pay to acquire Realmuto and spend it on someone who can hit 40 home runs a year. They will be about the same price in terms of prospects. The only expectation, I will have out of my catchers offensively is that they hit the ball better than Bobby Wilson did. If they can hit .220 with a couple of bombs… I’m good, anything more is delicious gravy. Then let’s move on to the other positions to really move the offensive needle. I admit that I don’t know the status of Mitch Garver and his concussion issues and that is worrisome. For now I’m carrying on as if he will be back. Yes, I know he has defensive issues that can are easily noticed from my couch. I’m telling Mitch to work on it this winter… get better at it and shut everybody up. Willans Astudillo I am placing in Rochester for depth because he has options and this means we can stash him and depth is important. I was Astudillo’s biggest fan last year and I believe in him but I am a bigger fan of having depth in case of injury and Astudillo will get stashed as a result. If Garver can’t go… Astudillo moves up to the big club. JASON CASTRO C 8.0 MITCH GARVER C/1B 0.6 40 MAN DEPTH: WILLANS ASTUDILLO C/3B 0.6 CORNER INFIELD: TYLER AUSTIN 1B 0.6 NICK CASTELLANOS 3B/OF 11.3 MIGUEL SANO 1B/3B 3.1 Miguel Sano: This is where the genius of my plan starts coming into view. What to do with Miguel Sano? Do you trust him? Can he stay healthy? I’m saying yes… I’m betting that he can become the player we want him to be but I’m hedging that bet and I’m giving him a real hard push at the same time. I want Sano to get serious about his career and future earning potential so I’m bringing in a proven power hitter that Sano will have to outplay. There are no decent (In my opinion) 1B or 3B options on the free agent market so I’m trading for the guy I want. Nick Castellanos has one year of control before becoming a free agent next year and the Tigers are in rebuild mode so we might be able to get him for a decent price and Tigers may be motivated to trade. I won’t assume to know what it will cost but I will assume that it won’t take Royce Lewis. The best thing about Nick is that he can also play OF… If Sano responds and wins his job back… Castellanos can move to RF to make room. Tyler Austin… I have no idea what he is capable of but he looked good enough last year… that I feel it would be crazy to just let him go. He is out of options so it’s keep him or dump him. I’m keeping him but I am once again hedging my bets which you will see as we move on. 40 MAN DEPTH: I don’t have any suggestions but I have a few 40 man roster spots to play with. I urge the front office to try real hard to locate the next Max Muncy or Luke Voit. Stash them in Rochester until needed. Go get two of them. AAAA Diamond in the Rough 0.6 AAAA Diamond in the rough 0.6 MIDDLE INFIELD: DANIEL MURPHY 2B/1B/3B 9.0 2 YEARS JORGE POLANCO SS/2B 0.6 MARWIN GONZALEZ 2B/SS/EVERYWHERE 14.0/4 YEARS Obviously, Jorge Polanco will have to play the lion’s share of SS with this group and I know this will disappoint some people, however, while I love Iglesias defensively, his bat isn’t much better than Adrianaza and I’m not throwing 9 million at that when we could just keep Adrianaza who I am letting go of. The Twins will just have to get better at developing a SS as Polanco and Gonzalez show Baldelli who will be the better defensive SS between the two. Daniel Murphy… I know he is perhaps a bigger defensive issue at 2B but I just love his bat and I’m getting it. I know we can move him to 1B if necessary and we have the DH position to play with. Marwin Gonzalez ends up being my most expensive free agent and that is based on a hunch. Follow my logic if you can. The Twins and Blue Jays have hired managers from the Rays, The Rangers just hired from the Dodgers. The Nationals hired from the Cubs last year. This suggests a further shift into the new age and that the front offices have been watching the Rays, Dodgers, Cubs and Brewers. Those teams are the flexibility 4 and this means more teams will be bidding for Marwin’s skill set. Couple that with Escobar and Nunez already taken off the market and I think he will be expensive and I’m paying it. Besides with Murphy at 2B... We need him to play some 2B. 40 MAN DEPTH: Nick Gordon 0.6 AAAA Diamond in the rough 0.6 OUTFIELD: TREY MANCINI OF/1B 0.6 EDDIE ROSARIO OF/2B/3B 5.0 MAX KEPLER OF 3.2 MICHAEL REED OF 0.6 I’m trading for Trey Mancini. The Orioles are going to go full rebuild and Mancini may be their top trade chip. He has 4 years of control so I’m going to assume he will cost a bit. Make our top 5 untouchable and combine as many players from the rest to get the deal done. Eddie Rosario… I’m going to be stubborn here and insist that the club audition him for occasional infield work. We really need the backup at 2B in case we need to move Murphy to 1B. I have no idea if he can play IF but I will not assume that he can’t. Max Kepler is out of options… he can’t be stashed so he will have to get better. It’s up to Max… however… I will make sure that Max knows that Nick Castellanos can play OF and so can Marwin Gonzalez so if we need to slow down our Kepler use… we can. Michael Reed… I have no idea what to do with Reed but I know that he is out of options so he either makes the club or he will be most likely off the team. Basically… I’m not letting Michael Reed prevent me from acquiring Mancini and I assume he was signed because the front office likes him. This will force us to start Buxton and Cave in Rochester. They have options while Reed and Kepler don’t. If Reed doesn’t make the team then Buxton gets this last spot like I've been planning since he was sent down to preserve his service time and Buxton will have to win the bulk of the playing time back. It will not be handed to him like years past. Now this is somewhat unfortunate for Jake Cave… I believe that Jake Cave earned a roster spot but… he has those options and 40 Man Depth is important to keep you from signing Motter’s. Regardless… Someone will get hurt (Buxton probably) and Jake will be back. 40 Man Depth: Byron Buxton 0.6 Jake Cave 0.6 Lamonte Wade 0.6 Potential Game 7 Starting Lineup: JUSTIN VERLANDER ON THE MOUND. (Remember… We traded for him at the deadline) Byron Buxton – CF Eddie Rosario – RF Nick Castellanos – 3B Daniel Murphy - DH Miguel Sano - 1B Trey Mancini - LF Jorge Polanco – SS Marwin Gonzalez – 2B Jason Castro – C Bench: Garver Austin Kepler Gordon is called up in August. Come play-off time we go from 13 to 12 pitchers. Verlander, Happ, Berrios, Gibson, Miller, Ottovino, Reed, Rogers, May, Hildenberger, Odorizzi, Romero. With the addition of the 5.95 Million owed to other teams and the loose change that is paid to the other members of the 40 man roster. The 2019 payroll will be: 147.05 Million. I have kept in under 150 million.

My Dad will not pay 10 bucks for a hamburger. He just won't do it. Even if I offer to buy him the 10 buck burger, he consistently refuses. My Dad has more than enough money to afford the 10 dollar burger, he did well enough in the stock market to purchase his own hamburger business outright if he wanted to but he just won't pay 10 dollars for a burger because he thinks 10 bucks is too much for a burger. There are a lot of people in this world with this sort of mentality. With no inside information at all, fairly or unfairly. I have always assumed that Terry Ryan was like my father in this regard and believed it was possible that our budgets had more to do with Ryan's sensibility than some sort of directive from the Pohlad's. Part of the reason I came to this assumption was watching how payroll went up under Bill Smith after replacing Terry Ryan and then how payroll went back down after Terry Ryan returned. Granted that didn't prove anything because the team situations were different in terms of competitiveness but it was enough for me to assume the possibility that it just might be Terry Ryan. Now that Terry Ryan is gone... Payroll has gone up again... so who knows... maybe my assumption is plausible and therefore maybe we can spend 150 Million?

This is well thought and you have pointed out significant potential issues. My approach... I wouldn’t handcuff My stacking because of the issues you list. You don’t have to pair them up. Just keep a handful on staff and utilize them based on need and timing. That way if Odorizzi is cruising you can let him keep cruising. In my opinion... the thing that makes the idea worth exploring is the flexibility it provides. By saying you get 3 and you get 3 no matter what happens you have taken the best thing about it away. That would be like going from one locked in system to another locked in system. Think free form and think about the allocation of innings across the board. The trend is heading this way... this is just running ahead to where it’s heading.

I don't think all of baseball would adopt this either but if successful... it will be adopted because maybe 90% of the 30 MLB teams are not able to roster 5 quality starters and the numbers of innings the starters are throwing are in a free fall. The bottom line is that nothing is ever black and white... or at least it shouldn't be black and white... this is a suggestion that can mitigate that difficulty and keep a team competitive when the 5 man rotation is too hard to accomplish. If you manage to roster a solid 5 man rotation... the need for this would go away or diminish and you can operate as normal. It does not disqualify you from signing Yu Darvish as a traditional starter... it just helps you when you can't. As for Graterol and the development time... Yeah... They could get up here quicker as a 3 inning option and the beautiful thing is... they can continue to be stretched out by gradually increasing the innings they throw per appearance as they improve. Once you remove the shackles of a starter has to go 5 or 6 innings and relievers only throw 1 inning. The doors to this type of development open wide. Another thing to consider this. With this type of flexibility... you can naturally manage each prospect's innings count without having to shut them down for August or September.

MLR... I'm gonna step in here for a second. Couple of things to keep in mind. 1. As Moderators we not only try to restrict the severity of attacks on fellow TD members but we also try to restrict the severity of the attacks on the front office. It is much harder with the front office since they are directly in the line of fire but we try. 2. The admins have been writing a series of coordinated different approaches to the off-season. Tom wrote about the abrupt change approach, Seth wrote the Status Quo Approach and Nick wrote the Big Spending Approach. When you consider the coordination of each providing something different. I don't think you can assume that any of them are 100% behind their game plans. Nick for example is very intelligent and I can read his article and assume that he knows the difficulty of signing Patrick Corbin but he's listing it because that would be ideal pick up for the Twins... in his opinion... under the context of... spending your way into contention... which is always an option for any team, even if it is a terrible idea from a business standpoint. 3. It's OK to respectfully counter. Just be careful how much cold water you throw on it. These forums are for the fun of the discussion. Join in the fun.

Agreed but if it's successful... the paradigm will shift accordingly and make the issue only temporary.

And this is why 2nd Interviews are important. We have your phone number on file and we will be in touch. You don't need a designated long man. You will have long men coming out of your ears. Last year Matt MaGill was ripped out of regular bullpen usage just to cool his heels as the "needed" designated long man after Phil Hughes was traded. During that time as the "designated" long man... not only did he not pitch much anymore but the longest he went was 3.1 innings. It wasn't because he was getting knocked out off the mound either. His first three appearances as the "designated long man" were 3.1, 3.0, 3.0 and he gave up one hit total over those 9.1 innings that stretched from May 29 to June 16. With this proposal... Matt MaGill will be asked to go 3.0 innings more frequently. He won't have to wait 18 days for something to go horribly wrong to get the ball. LOOGY? If you used your LOOGY two days in a row... Are you stuck on the third day? Did we have a LOOGY last year? Was it Zach Duke because he was left-handed? We just need guys who can get people out. If you have a guy who is tough on left-handers... select him over the other options when you need to face Bryce Harper. Even with these new considerations... we still would want talented bullpen guys left-handed and right-handed. Mainly though... you got this... you answer all your questions in your (what I call) "the paragraph that concerns me". (The paragraph where you express the need for a long man and LOOGY). You answer all the questions with the final two paragraphs. You are right... It's fluid and if you recognize that it's fluid, you can go with the flow. You can't plan for what comes next just like you can't plan for what has happened for the past 30 years. But when you remove the shackles of a reliever only goes one inning and a starter must go 6. Now you have two inning, three inning, and four inning options that were not part of the equation before and this flexibility will allow you to give the ball to the guys who will hang the most zeroes more often. As soon as you start planning rotations and strict roles, you kill yourself by etching your options in stone by unnecessarily creating your own limitations. Mike Tyson said... "Everybody has a plan until you get punched in the mouth". Decide what to do next by increasing your options. Under the old model... Taylor Rogers could only throw one inning... if he can now throw one or two (or three?) innings... you have increased your options with Taylor Rogers alone and the doors open up wider for when you get punched in the mouth.

The manager still has to make in-game decisions such as pulling a guy early or letting him throw another inning. In my mind... locking them into 3 innings from this guy... followed by 3 innings from this guy defeats the purpose of getting out of the traditional roles of 6 innings from the starter and 1 inning from the reliever. It takes them from one locked in role to another locked in role. This is why Ash is going to be my manager. He understands that it's fluid and he will let the pitchers earn more innings by hanging zeroes and I know that Ash will send the pitchers who can't make it three innings, down to AAA and get somebody else when necessary.

In my opinion... Same as always... The Cons? Talent... you still need talent.

And with that approach... I'd hire you to be my Manager. It's the same stuff I've been saying on the hitter side for months. Sing for your supper. Why would anybody give 500 AB's to a guy hitting under .200? Why would you give over 120 innings to a guy with an ERA over 5.00? If a guy can't consistently get through the order a third time... why would you keep asking him to? The only answer is... because that's way it's been done for generations. (High Five) You are a brilliant man Ashbury John.