Riverbrian

The Rays didn't just use an opener... They Bullpenned their way through a significant amount of games. There were stretches when Snell was the only guy being rotated every 5 games. Your last paragraph is my point... There may be a few pitchers like Odorizzi who can't and few pitchers who can. And then there are guys like Perkins. When you consider all the shapes and sizes that pitchers take... Why does it make sense to shoe horn them into traditional set ups... meaning why force it like teams have done for decades... Why force Odorizzi to go through the order a third time when he consistently crashes? Reallocate the innings based on the context of your team. Have a manager who can isn't locked into a 5 man rotation... The starter goes 6 innings... Relievers then throw an inning at a time. Distribute your innings better by opening the doors to new possibilities.

Yeah but that's kinda the point. If you continue to try and slam this into the traditional model it isn't going to work so you got to stop doing that. The Rays are the only team that has tried it and they started trying it in May so you are not going to find teams that have 6 relievers reaching that pinnacle. All you can do at this point is look at the Rays and how do you divide up all those innings because they blurred the lines by removing the S's (starters) and R's (Relievers) from the P's (pitchers) and made them just P's (pitchers) in a lot of cases. The Math can work but it takes a new way of thinking. 1450 Innings divided by 13 pitching roster spots and you have an average of 111 Innings per roster spot. If 3 guys (preferably your best guys ) throw let's say 170 innings each. That's 510 innings. 1450 minus 510 is: 940 Now take 4 traditional reliever roster spot who will give you about 60 innings a year. That's 240 Innings. 940 minus 240 is 700 And those 700 innings are divided by the 6 roster spots who are used for stacking or whatever and you are back to 117 innings. Which is close to the original average of 111 innings (1450/13). Those 6 roster spots could go to a combination of: Odorizzi, Pineda, Mejia, Romero, Stewart and Gonsalves. But please don't get locked into those names... it's for example purposes. Who's to say that Taylor Rogers who was arguably our most effective pitcher in 2018 couldn't stretch his inning count. If you stop and think about it... why does it make sense to stop your best pitcher at 60 innings while forcing a guy with a 5.76 ERA to throw 160 innings just because one guy has an R in front of his P and the other guy has an S in front of his P. Isn't it about time we started to question the guy who said that starters have to go 6 and relievers only go one inning and nobody goes 3 ever!!! Unless something goes horribly wrong. Things don't have to be that systematic and as things start to improve... you can always adjust again. If the Rays had Snell, Archer plus Cole, Verlander and Kuechel... They wouldn't have tried it. If the Rays get, Cole, Verlander and Kuechel to join Snell next year... They will probably operate like the Astros did this year. It's about the distribution of the innings. Get your best pitchers more innings.

My mistake... I forgot to include the 27 innings thrown by Wilmer Font.

Well... then you nailed him.

In 2018. MLB had an average of 1449 across baseball. The Twins were at 1443.1 innings. This makes sense because 162 X 9 is 1458. 1780 divided by 162 is an 11 Innings per game average. TEAM IP Chicago Cubs 1476.1 LA Dodgers 1476 Oakland 1465.2 Arizona 1463 San Francisco 1461.1 Milwaukee 1461 NY Mets 1460.2 Boston 1458.2 Cleveland 1457.1 San Diego 1457 Atlanta 1456.2 NY Yankees 1456.1 St. Louis 1455.1 Houston 1455 Colorado 1452.1 Seattle 1448.2 Tampa Bay 1448.1 Washington 1446 Philadelphia 1445.2 Minnesota 1443.1 Miami 1442 Cincinnati 1441 LA Angels 1437.1 Chicago Sox 1437 Pittsburgh 1434 Toronto 1433.2 Kansas City 1432 Baltimore 1431 Texas 1431 Detroit 1425.1 IP Amer. Lea. 1444 Nat. Lea. 1455 Baseball 1449

MLR's numbers may be off a little bit... but the concept is spot on. You are correct but only, if you look at each individual player and not the roster spot each player occupies. For Example, If Archer throws 96 innings and is traded to the Pirates for Glasnow who goes on to throw 55 innings. That is basically 151 innings for one spot on the roster.

If you do the research.. I'd be interesting in viewing it.

I love the thinking however, there will be issues with Odorizzi and Pineda buying in if you limit it to Berrios and Gibson. The hardest part with the adjustment isn't the adjustment itself. A good manager can figure it out and just do it. The Hardest part is going to be the thing that makes most adjustments hard. Money. Starting Pitching makes a lot of money and bullpen pitching makes much less. This will be perhaps the biggest hurdle to player buy-in. A front office can and should tear down the conventional walls if it improves your team... but once the wall comes down, there is another wall behind it and that wall (salary structure) is thick, entrenched and was based upon the model that has been removed. The analytic GM's are about to challenge that starting pitcher compensation model which will be added to the challenging of the free agent compensation model last off-season. The next CBA negotiation is going to be horrible. Change is the slow boring of hard boards.

You hit the nail on the head. I think people are missing the point. This really isn't about "The Opener" exclusively. What this is about... what Tampa Bay did... was take a new approach to the reallocation of innings.

Under the traditional model yes... but it's going to get harder to manage the bullpen properly when the starters are not making it to 6 innings.

I think I understand with what you are saying and I actually agree with you. If it was reversed and the new thing was the old thing. The old thing could become the new thing over time because new ideas happen naturally and the old thing would be a new idea. So yeah... I agree with the exception that others would have followed suit. A few would have followed suit like today. It would take awhile for most to follow suit because Sons learn from their Fathers and the Sons that learn from the Fathers never invent the internet.

Any model besides traditional 5 Man rotation... try to get 6 out of a starter and an inning here and there out of your bullpen. Move away from that and I think you need the 13th guy always and I think we are moving away from that.

I think they have the opportunity to try multiple things. Traditional Starters, Openers, Stacking and Pure Bullpen games. It's quite possible that we will be saying goodbye to pre-packaged rotations of the past.

I think 13 pitchers is an absolute necessity. If there are 13 pitchers on the roster... I don't believe a dedicated DH is possible. That will give you an extra catcher, middle IF, Corner IF and OF.

Collusion isn't the right word... but yeah... they will again. You could prove an argument that despite being under-compensated at a shocking level last off-season, the free agents ended up being over-compensated in terms of production based on the results of 2018. A couple paid off... most did not.

Not only did the Dodgers send Puig down to get his head straight. They also sent down "one time uber prospect" Joc Pederson down to get himself straight

To me it all depends on how you view this current “wave”. If you look at them as inexpensive members of the 25 man roster that give you the payroll space to add talent in addition to them. The doors of possibility open up for you. They don’t cost much more than Ryan LaMarre does. There is no need to trade them. Just roster them and ask them to win a job instead of being handed a job come hell or high water. If you want Sano to get his act together introduce him to your new acquisition Nick Castellanos and make him earn his AB’s.

Hands are over-rated! http://cdn0.vox-cdn.com/assets/4885432/Kicker.gif

That's what I thought you meant. I agree with most of it. The off-season is for loading up the roster and I want them to load up the roster this off-season. It's much harder to fix your roster once the season is started and everybody has found homes. I'm not looking for piranhas either but... Where we may differ... if we get piranhas and they in contention... I'm bringing them some more food in full support. I will never look at a stacked Red Sox roster and say... We can't compete in a 20 game sample size... no sense in trying. I understand the desire to not mortgage the future and I don't want it mortgaged either but when I look at the prices paid by the Brewers this year to get Moustakas and Schoop... I don't think you have to.

(Fist Bump)

Steve is correct, It does matter... however... how much it matters is the question.

Both of you seem to be saying the same thing so I'm replying to both. I hope not to be misunderstood... I'm all for loading up the roster with as much quality as you can in the off-season to increase your odds of going all the way through. I am not saying that we should just settle for Jake Cave and pass on Pollock and just try to piranha your way through, all the way to the finish. I've lost count on how many times I've typed... give me 25 guys who can play so hopefully, I'm believable when I say it. Ultimately, I want my Twins to look like the Astros and Dodgers currently look on paper. But, if you guys are looking at a team in contention in July. A team full of piranha's and it's Jake Cave leading the way... if you are both saying we shouldn't bother trading a prospect to acquire Justin Verlander because the Astros are just so loaded. If you feel there is no point because the roster doesn't compare to what Boston is putting down on paper... therefore let's not sacrifice our future to take a shot when the team you currently have are earning that shot... We are in 100% disagreement. The Playoffs are 20 games max. You just got to go 12-8. The Orioles could go 12-8 in their current state at any time and are capable of going 12-8 at any time against the best of the best or the worst of the worst and it just might be Renato Nunez who hits 6 home runs at key moments that leads the way. You never who is going to step up or if the paper tigers on the other side are going to experience the bad timing of stepping down at the absolutely wrong time. We just got done watching the Brewers take the Dodgers to Game 7 with a rotation of Chacin, Miley and Gio Gonzalez. A rotation that completely shut down the Rockies before doing decently against mighty Dodgers. Was it the Rockies just not hitting as a team at the moment or did Chacin and Miley just kinda find it at the right time? I don't know but it kinda happened to the Dodgers as well and things like this happen every single year. Meanwhile Kershaw and Ryu fronted the Dodgers rotation and finished 3 wins and 5 losses combined while allowing 25 runs in 49 innings. These paper assessments don't mean much in a 20 game sample size. So acquire some additional help if your team has a shot. Energize them the best you can. You never know what player becomes Eovaldi or what player becomes Darvish but you should try. Never pass on a playoff race because you think you know better. Load up in the off-season... see what happens... If you are contention... load up some more. If you are not... sell off the expiring contracts for more farm options. And even if you don't load up in the off-season and somehow, someway, through voodoo, crazy hops or found light-switches your scrappy team is in contention for a playoff spot... never ever ignore it. The players will let you know which direction you need to go and if they are telling you by their Wins and Losses to go for it... Join them. As for this off-season... I see absolutely no reason to look at what we have and look at what Boston, Houston and New York have and then just throw in the towel to focus on 2020 instead. If I was the Orioles... Yeah... I'd sell off and kick that can down the road. The 2019 Twins should enter the season with plenty of pitching depth, players with talent who are cheap, controllable and could collectively find the light switch, with money to spend and minor league talent that can acquire additional talent... plus... what should be another year of a weak AL Central. Let's go Twins!!! BTW... To avoid any confusion... I'm not saying we should trade Royce Lewis for David Freese to support the team. I always remain hopeful that the front office has some common sense along those lines when it comes to supporting a team.

Reed is out of options. I support the team in any efforts to find talent wherever it may be found while at the same time worry a little because that’s a 25 man spot that could be used on the next Mike Trout. Here’s to hoping that Reed is given the opportunity to prove himself and become the next Mike Trout.

We agree that we should produce the strongest roster possible to increase the odds of surviving every stage of the playoffs but it sounds like we might disagree a bit on the approach. I believe that if that scrappy team finds themselves in contention for a chip and a chair and a chance, it becomes the obligation of the front office to support those scrappy players at the trade deadline. The players are the primary indicator if Jake Cave is leading us to a playoff berth. We shouldn’t be sitting here saying we have no chance because Jake Cave is not Mookie Betts because once the playoff starts It just might be Willians Astudillo who wins the MVP like Steve Pearce did while Jake Cave hits .210 like Mookie Betts did. A wild card team needs to go 12-8 to win the title. The 2018 Baltimore Orioles were capable of going 12-8 if they were given a chip and a chair and a chance. The playoff are a small sample size. I think it starts in the off-season. Load up the roster and let the players decide who is and who isn’t leading us onward and adjust accordingly. It’s a two step process Step one - Qualify for the playoffs Step Two - Compete like your life depends on it for possibly 20 games. You will never find me saying “we don’t have anybody who matches up to Clayton Kershaw so let’s not trade prospects for renting Someone who MIGHT be the guy who catches fire.

I agree with you... Ryan Pressly worked out... Johan obviously. But... we can't afford to hide the guy anymore. If you want to dive into the rule 5... Dive into it... Grab the guy and play the guy. If the attitude is let's absorb him for a year for a pay day in 2021. Pass. If the attitude is... I think he could contribute to the team this year. Go Ahead but the odds are against it so Jeremy and John can have that roster spot back and utilize it as they see fit.