Riverbrian

I am of the opinion that contending teams have to be deep enough so the loss of one player (no matter who the player is) or two or three will not kill you. Losing Byron Buxton... Tough blow... would love to have had him on the playoff roster. However... He is just one guy. Specific injuries are impossible to predict but an injury with someone somewhere somehow is pretty damn easy to predict because it happens every day, month and year. Buxton getting hurt or Yelich getting hurt should never cripple a club to the point of saying... Yeah we would have won if Yelich was around to hit 5 home runs in the playoffs. The main "What If" moment or at least pivotal moment in 2019 was the Trade Deadline. When the Twins failed to acquire a starter at the deadline... they failed to deepen the rotation. Once they failed to acquire a starter, they followed that by failing to deepen the rotation from the system. Once they failed to deepen the rotation from outside or inside the system, they were left vulnerable to the predictable, happens every year, routine stress points of Gibson (Health), Pineda (Suspension), Perez (Not Performing). A team can navigate the playoffs with just 3 starters. Once they were left vulnerable, this led to starting Randy Dobnak in game two of the playoffs after trying really hard not to start him during the regular season. Once they decided to start Randy Dobnak, this led to a strict bullpen plan to manage Randy Dobnak's start. Once they decided on a strict bullpen plan to help manage Randy Dobnak's (we don't have confidence in you) playoff start, this led to complete chaos in the bullpen in Game One after Baldelli had to turn to it sooner than he would have liked. None of these "Once they decided" points I'm making are the complete reason they lost in the playoffs nor would the trading for a pitcher at the deadline been any type of guarantee that the Twins would have done better in the playoffs. However... IMO... The True... "What If" moment occurred at the trade deadline when they did not pick up significant depth for a rotation that had been healthy until the deadline. It's a mistake I hope they learned from as we get ready for the World Series Title in 2020.

The Rays got raided last year and it didn't seem to hurt them too badly. It's just our turn. I wouldn't thing this will be a yearly thing. However... When we lose coaches, it gives us a chance to raid other organizations to replace them and when you raid other organizations... you get new ideas walking in the door with them. And if you have an organization that listens, that welcomes new ideas... this will make you stronger because you get to add to what the previous coach left behind. I don't see any negative personally unless they hire people with no new ideas.

There is something about Villar that you and I are not seeing. I realize that he has been inconsistent from season to season. Fantastic Years and Real Bad Years and Just plain good years but he shown ability. Despite that ability he has bounced from franchise to franchise. The Astros let him go, The Brewers kinda pushed him off in a trade, the Orioles let him go. There's something wrong but nothing his stats would suggest. I've always liked him. And he can play OF to.

Multiple Positions and Speed. I wanted mind if the Twins grabbed him.

Interesting Trade with Milwaukee completed today as well.

The Pirates had some really good years in the past under Huntington. The criticism was that they never added those "put you over the top" improvements to those contending teams and therefore came up just a little bit short. Fast Forward to 2018 when they actually added support to a contending team with the Archer deal. And of course... that deal blows up in their face (almost historically) with Glasnow and Meadows killing it in Tampa. Cherington will probably tear it down so Shelton won't be playoff bound for a little while.

This will sound strange but I hope the raid will continue. It means we are doing something right.

I can understand... The thinking with all these plans to move Sano to 1B. What I can't understand is... Any plan of moving Sano to 1B and then removing all trace of his ability to play 3B.

We are truly blessed to have a young core of players with the talent to WIN NOW combined with abilities that can still be IMPROVED. Lavine should be feeling a breeze.

I think it speaks volumes about the current organization. You know you are on the right path when others start following your path. I wasn't doing a head count but we did not have this type of coaching poaching during the previous administration.

I agree with this as well. As I throw support toward Astudillo as a catcher... I also know that injuries can change things on a dime. All I can do is hope that they find someone better than Wilson for AAA or hope that Jeffers has Helium.

I hope so because I’m brilliant.

WIth Astudillo... I don't have any deal breaking defensive concerns. I'm not going to claim he's a master pitch framer or expert when it comes to handling the pitching staff but I will say that I didn't see anything that suggests that he costs the Twins from a defensive standpoint behind the plate either. When it comes to offense... I'll say it again. If Astudillo can exhibit plate discipline and this is just a matter of finding that specific light switch... His value would rise quickly and beyond what many of us imagine it could be because his offense would be so far above what typical catchers produce. I'm normally the guy who encourages multiple position ability. In the case of Astudillo... I think they should focus on catcher almost exclusively because catcher value is so inflated. Work on his defense at the catcher position extensively and get him to stop swinging at crap because he has clearly demonstrated that he can make consistent contact... therefore just try to eliminate the contact that he shouldn't be making contact with. The end result could be a .300 hitting catcher, increased OBP with walks added to the equation, double digit dingers and decent while not elite defense. If you take that profile and compare it to the profiles of other typical catchers around the league. He would rise to near the top of the pile rather quickly. You have a player who can help you win games while on the roster and a player who could also bring back a big return should you trade him. Just look at the contract Grandal signed, look at the trade package Realmuto brought to the Marlins. No I'm not saying that Astudillo will become Grandal or Realmuto but I am saying that Catcher Value is inflated due to position scarcity over pay. Catcher... Don't overpay for them... Grow your own and let other teams over pay you for them.

I can’t make your concerns go away. I think bullpen concern should be perpetual. Bullpen arms fluctuate in production. I won’t look at Rogers for example and assume we have someone we can count on in 2020. So the best I can do to make you feel better: Strength in numbers. The fact you are listing multiple options suggests we have multiple options and that’s a good thing. We just need the team to get bullpen serious and let the risers rise and let the fallers fall.

Those younger than us are awfully confused by the Badfinger posts but they can still read this font size, so they have that going for them.

When a baby chick hatches from the egg, the chick imprints on the first moving object that it sees. I imprinted on these. What can I do? What can I say? All that time without a word. Didn't know you'd think that I'd forget or I'd regret. The Special Love I have for you... My Baby Blue. Guess that's all I have to say. Except the feeling just grows stronger every day.

That's bring us back to what I call the Friedman style. Talent used to get blocked like you describe all the time. I said it earlier in this thread. It used to take a specific combination of events for a prospect to break through the wall. In the scenario you describe, Friedman won't (in my opinion) look at Gordon as blocked. If Gordon is ready, he will find a spot for him and he will have Arraez and Gordon on the same 25 man roster leaving it to Dave Roberts to make it work, Arraez would probably be a super utility guy and Gordon might take on a similiar role. Or... if the 25 man is plump full, he will exhaust Gordon's options in AAA for injury replacement. I don't think Friedman looks at it the same "we have 4 2B so we can trade 2 of them" way. Value is Value... positional need factors matter much much less and this creates an overall depth instead of position specific depth. This makes the Dodgers bulletproof in my opinion. They will call up the best prospect, regardless of position when they need to backfill from the minors. They can fill from above with money and below with prospects... Injuries or Bad Contracts won't take them down. Dombrowski on the other hand, Might (In my opinion, I don't know) look at Moncada and have no problem trading him for Sale because he perceives he has specific depth at 2B and 3B with Pedroia and Devers and Nunez and Holt and he can address 2B later. In a sense, he may devalue Moncada in that scenerio because he isn't usable to the Red Sox at the moment. This is fine... it worked in 2018 but in 2020, they now need a 2B and the owner says he wants them to get below the luxury tax. The bill is due. This is why I'm a Friedman style guy. The way I see it, teams need 600K talent because everybody has a budget cap. If want to keep payroll around 130,000,000. Just using 25 for the 25 man roster instead of the 40 man roster. This is around 5.2M per player. Each 600K talent you have, allows you to change that number from 5.2M to 9.8M for one player. Another 600K talent on the roster and you can afford a 14.4M talent. If 600K talent is blocked (self inflicted). Teams become their own worst enemy.

Yeah I don’t know either but I think you are right. The front offices have a number in mind and that number plays a role in if they trade Royce Lewis and what they get in return. Ponder that and then consider what the Cubs gave up for a rental of Chapman. It means the Cubs Valued the Chapman rental at a similar price of Royce Lewis or they said screw the value. I don’t think we will see anything like that again from a majority of clubs but that was Dombrowski style move and there are less Dombrowski style GM’s today because the bill comes due.

If the Red Sox wanted to straight cash buy Royce Lewis. Everything has it's price... How Much? When you can answer the question, you'll have a starting point.

Agreed and I want to be clear... I'm knocking Dombrowski at all. You can also add Theo to what you describe. There is a time to spend, a time to sell and Theo did it nicely. He built the Cubs via the Farm and then drained it. I have no criticism for this strategy because it has produced championships but the bill will come due and when the bill comes due... they may not survive. In the end... I could be wrong but I don't believe Friedman will ever drain the farm and while it remains to be seen... I believe that Bloom will eventually build the Dodgers East. A team with money to spend at the top and prospects coming from the bottom. Money combined with the Tampa sensibility will be a hard combination to beat. Friedman has the resources to spend and he will spend carefully, he has the resources to trade and he will trade carefully but I don't believe Friedman will ever be in the position that the Cubs and Red Sox currently are and I believe he will be in contention every year and that perpetual contention will produce a title eventually.

I totally understand the complexity of your quest. It should make you tear your hair out if you are doing it right. My tendency is to believe that there isn't a simple right answer that will remove the complexity of the question. Let me put this way... If you took Andrew Friedman and Dave Dombrowski, locked them in a room and then forced them to honestly (without decorum) debate roster construction, the value of prospects, overall operational style, long term planning, things like that. Let's say that you tied them to chairs and only the winner of the debate would be untied at the end of the debate to make sure they won't mince words with freedom on the line. It is my opinion, that Andrew and Dave will argue, shout and roll their eyes at each other. The difference between them would be extreme, it probably wouldn't be pretty and the value of prospects would be at the heart of the debate. Andrew Friedman isn't going to drain the farm to acquire talent, he won't do it. He values prospects higher. Dombrowski will drain the farm, he has done it, he values veteran talent higher. Neither camp is wrong... The Red Sox have won a recent world series so the drain the farm strategy is legit and can't be dismissed. Personally, I'm in the Friedman camp. You have to keep the farm productive at all times. However, we have some posters on Twinsdaily who think that prospects typically don't pan out so we might as well cash them in... and those posters are in the Dombrowski camp. When they believe that 80% of prospects don't pan out. This is Dombrowski speak. But, here's the deal... The Dombrowski's are disappearing fast. New hires are almost exclusively coming from the Friedman style camp now. And as the Friedman's take over... the value of prospects goes up accordingly. From 1990 to 2003... they were all Dombrowski's. This renders research from 1990 to 2003 concerning prospects panning out... basically not relevant to today's discussion.

Oh and how many players are bunched up close to the hard line matters. When I was in Rock Radio Programming. According to the consultants. China Grove tested a 75 so I could play it. Jesus is Just Alright tested a 74 so I couldn't play it. It was a hard arbitrary line that produced a Classic Rock library of 200 songs and the same methodology was applied across the entire industry.

I'll just cut and paste from above. The Value of a Prospect has escalated a ton since then. If the Value goes up.. the opportunity goes up accordingly and it changes today's relevance in the discussion significantly. Should we trade Royce Lewis for a Yu Darvish? If you are thinking with a 1990-2003 mentality. The Answer is Yes. If you are thinking with a 2020 mentality. The Answer might be no. Where was the line between Bust and Success arbitrarily placed. This is huge and I believe this is what you are trying to currently determine. I believe that short term success can't be dismissed out of hand.

When I read that article... I didn't dismiss it completely because I'm sure it was saying something. But, there were two immediate points in my mind that needed to be factored in for relevance. The Value of a Prospect has escalated a ton since then. If the Value goes up.. the opportunity goes up accordingly and it changes today's relevance in the discussion significantly. Should we trade Royce Lewis for a Yu Darvish? If you are thinking with a 1990-2003 mentality. The Answer is Yes. If you are thinking with a 2020 mentality. The Answer might be no. Where was the line between Bust and Success arbitrarily placed. This is huge and I believe this is what you are trying to currently determine.

The topic itself is EXTREMELY important in my opinion and it is much much broader than the narrow scope you are trying to contain it to. The topic has many different paths to take in different directions. You are focused on end result and I am focused on roadblocks that change the end result. You want to determine the predictive value of the top 100 lists. I'm saying OK I understand this but the predictive value is directly influenced by the operational style of the day. You want to know if BA gets it right... I'm saying that BA doesn't control how Andy LaRoche is handled. Maybe BA was right... the club was wrong or vice versa. I'm saying... I believe that there are busts that are self inflicted by the organization and more than we realize. And I believe that the the operational style has been changing to the point where it is becoming apples and oranges. I brought up short term value specifically because you had Duffey in the bust pile. You were questioning the line... I agree with you. It's a bad line if Duffey is in the bust pile and I used short term value as a reason for agreeing with you. As for using WAR... I'll let you use that for your determinations. I won't use it for mine... I'm not a WAR guy but I still see where you are going and am muddying the waters in an effort to help. Bottom Line... There are a lot of ingredients that go into this cake you are baking. I think the cake needs to be baked but the things I'm mentioning are factors that have extreme influence over the cake you seek.