Riverbrian

If he continues with the plate discipline improvement or dare I suggest... even improves his plate discipline more. And with good health of course. I will take the over. He will club over 50.

Yes I used your words but I didn't attribute you directly in order to not call you out specifically. There are plenty of Cave ho hum whatever postings that will prevent you from sole ownership of the sentiment. I know there are a ton of stats to choose from but I don't need them to make my point. OPS does just fine. Cave hasn't hurt us in the lineup, the drop off from Cave to his peers in the lineup has been almost insignificant and his 400 AB performance thus far is above MLB average. You can get down into the grains of sand of metrics and show me that Rosario or anyone is better... I won't argue but it doesn't matter to me because the question is how much better and more importantly still... if Cave goes another 400 AB's with the same numbers. How does his value at 600K while still pre-arbation compare to Rosario (for example) at 10 to 15 million and one year before FA? I appreciate your confidence in saying Cave has reached his ceiling after 400 AB's but forgive me if I wonder where that confidence comes from? I'm saying that you better be right because being either correct or wrong is the same result. We will have less money to spend in the future. If we have less money... you'll need to be right. Cost per matters... This is the Minnesota Twins.

I'm out of the prediction game. I'm not even going to guess what Cave, Wade, Larnach, Rooker, Kiriloff, or Lewis is going to be this year or beyond next year. I'm not going to guess what Rosario, Buxton, Kepler will be next or beyond next year. I don't know... none of us know... the front office doesn't know. If the front office knew, Nick Anderson would in our bullpen today. David Ortiz would be entering the HOF as a Twin, Alex Meyer would have never been traded for, ETC, ETC. I do know this: Jake Cave has 481 career big league AB's. He has a career big league 111 OPS+ (not to mention a .964 OPS in Rochester last season when he wasn't with the club. Eddie Rosario has 2451 career big league AB's. He has a career 108 OPS+ Max Kepler has 1970 career big league AB's. He has a career 103 OPS+ Byron Buxton has 1250 career big league AB's. He has a career 87 OPS+ So when I read posts that state: "Cave, do we really care all that much"? You should. Because here is what else I know for sure. Cave makes 600K and he will make 600K next year. Rosario makes 7.75 Million this year and he will make over 10 million next year. In other words... You better be right when you say "Cave, do we really care all that much". Because when an organization dismisses the 400 AB's and 111 OPS+ out of hand. Rosario has to perform significantly better to justify the cost per of 10 Million plus dollars with 1 year before hitting free agency. Because here is what else I know for sure: That 10 million comes directly out of next years budget and it becomes 10 million plus that can't be spent on a starting pitcher which limits the quality of the starting pitcher that you can acquire and we need 3 of them and as it stands we will have around 30 million to spend on 10 players just to field 26 roster spots. Here is something else I know for sure: The Twins will not reach a 200 million dollar payroll, there is a limit too how much they will spend and every time you dismiss a potential 600K talent for a 10 million dollar talent who is just a little better (if he is). You are basically committing the team to signing cheap Jason Bartletts in the future because those 10 millioin dollar guys add up and the budget will be spent and it is all the money you have left to work with. I will just remind you that you started this domino back in January 2020 when you decided that Rosario, Buxton and Kepler are your guys and Cave? Nobody cares that much. Here is what else I know for sure: Dave Dombroski is gone because he ran out of money and he didn't make the playoffs last year and his only solution to fix the problem was too spend even more money because he routinely dismissed Jake Cave type players out of hand or traded away his Larnach type players.

I think you have to change Terrific to OK. The last superstar produced by the organization was Joe Mauer. It's a long list of OK major league players. The Twins had no shot of trading for a Giolito or Kopech or Gleyber Torres for well over a decade because we never produced a talent with enough value to acquire one. The Twins produced talent that was just OK for well over a decade. It was a major development issue.

This only works if Bailey is viewed as insurance in case the prospects struggle. If the kids are viewed as the insurance. The front office has probably made a mistake. The front office has committed to the kids. They are no longer insurance.

There is doubt.

I agree... we can't go into next off-season needing to either sign or trade for 3 starters again. The development of internal options with multi years of control is almost more important than the 38 million dollars committed to 1 year contracts in the rotation this season and the current set-up is going to provide opportunity. Signing and trading has gone how it has gone and we have all been living witnesses to the results. How it has gone has got us to the point of committing to talent development so the talent we need must be developed. Starting now. I just have two concerns and the two concerns will seem to conflict each other but it's the path we must travel regardless. 1. Having options can't be the reason a young pitcher doesn't remain in the rotation when other pitchers return. This is a preemptive/precautionary concern but until I see different... I am concerned. Simply sending someone with options to the minors is the easy way out. They can't do that. If everyone is healthy when Pineda returns... Bailey better be better. The $7M investment in Bailey can't mean he keeps his job with a 5.00 ERA just to protect that investment. The development of a multi-year major league quality pitcher is more important than relentless tolerance of a well paid under performing pitcher. 2. How can they trust Dobnak or Smeltzer or Thorpe or whoever it is after not trusting them last season? Not enough has changed in the off-season to feel differently. Yeah... this is a direct conflict to my concern #1... but I can't help it... How can they? It could be argued that they trusted Dobnak enough to start a playoff game but most of us know that they ran out of choices. Pineda was suspended and Gibson and Perez were pitching awful. They trusted Dobnak enough to give him 28 innings but only gave him those innings after Pineda got suspended and Gibson had an E Coli flareup. They trusted Dobnak in the playoffs enough to hold back our best relievers in Game One under the assumption that they will be needed in Game Two to cover for the short start that Dobnak (in their mind) was sure to make. But now... it's magically fine in 2020. We can trust Dobnak now? I'm OK trusting Dobnak... I'm saying they should have started to trust him back in August until he showed he shouldn't be trusted. But... they didn't trust him then... so now I don't trust this (where did it come from) new found trust to open our season. But yeah... I agree with you. It is ideal... to give them the opportunity over an older back end option. We didn't get Stroman or Ray last deadline... We are going to have to make our own. We did't get Wheeler, Bumgarner or Ryu this off-season... We are going to have to make our own. Bailey can't get in the way like Perez did.

Yep and if you want to increase your allocation of available dollars to acquire these free agents or at least know where to allocate the limited amount of funds you have to work with. You better know what your 600K talent can do.

There are 3 spigots to staffing a roster. Trade Develop Sign as FA Glad to know the FA spigot has additional water pressure.

The Off-Season Grade will be dependent on the performances of the group of youngsters who will make up 40% of the starting rotation until Pineda and Hill throw a pitch.

Good post Doc. We are living in a world where not that long ago in 2018, being a backup meant 20 AB's a month and this was the way it was for decades. This was a cemented reality for followers of the Twins and many can't shake themselves from this thinking. This is why the semantics are still being debated and why I am at war against the term backup. 2019 happened and it was exactly what I asked for and a majority of writers and posters want to go back to the chosen 9 mentality of as recent as 2018 for 2020. We have this article stating that Donaldson will affect Larnach, Kiriloff and Rooker. currently on the front page there is an article "4 options for Twins final bench spot" and "Twins boast a plethora of backup options. You are correct when you use Ryan Lamarre and Logan Morrison as an example but this all started for me back in 2016. The Twins were dying in April on the way to the 1st pick overall while Kepler and Polanco were called up just to be benched watching the chosen 9 kill the team. This is why I respond when I read articles about Donaldson affecting Rooker, Kiriloff and Larnach. It's like 2019 didn't happen. Each roster spot is an opportunity to grow a player for future decisions and future trade value... growing 9 instead of 13 is a waste. Could the Twins bring back Marwin? Sure but it's going to take a big chunk out of the available funds. If he doesn't come back it would be helpful if we can give Kiriloff that roster spot at 600K and know that Kiriloff is looking like Yordan Alverez out there when we make that decision. We could use Arraez in the Marwin role instead of declaring Arraez the everyday 2B for the next 6 years but to make these decisions it takes information... or playing time if you will. I understand that posters want Rosario, Kepler, Buxton, Cruz, Sano and Donaldson to play everyday and for Cave to only have 20 AB's a month but you have killed Cave doing that. Cave could be an answer to next year when we are trying figure out how to allocate funds or an increased value trade chip. If Cave played like Morrison... let him go. However he didn't. So the solution is to kill him ourselves? Because no one can tolerate playing .800 OPS when you have a guy with .820 OPS? I read the articles and the comments, the starting 9 has been declared like 2019 didn't happen. I'm saying that if we go back to the 2018 model. Our window will be short and we will be plugging self created holes with Zach Cozart types in the future.

Then you and I are really not that far apart in our discussion. You see it. We can't allow Donaldson to affect the rookies. This is how Cave and Adrianza also tie into the whole debate. If Adrianza can show value, he can become a cheaper option to help free up money for that 15 Million Dollar Pitcher that I agree we need. I've got posters challenging me on my comment with a "no doubt Rosario" is better. That was never point... the point was... Can Cave play? How much better is Rosario than Cave, if he is better? Because Cave could become a cheaper option that can free up money for that 15 million dollar pitcher. We won't know if Adrianza, Cave, Larnach, Kiriloff, Rooker, can play unless We play them. 20 AB's a month on getaway days won't give us enough information to make decision for the playoffs next year and it won't give us enough enough information on where to allocate our limited resources next year. That's why I say... If Adrianza isn't going to play because he has been pre-designated as not good enough to play. Move on because we got to find someone else who is good enough to play. Each roster spot is precious and all we have to is find the time and our flexibility allows us to find the time in multiple locations.

I'll go with those numbers. The extra 10 million still gets spread thin with the volume needed.

I'm not worried about jamming them into the lineup in 2020. Cruz and Marwin are on the roster along with everyone else. If Kiriloff, Larnach, Rooker, Lewis or Blankenhorn all struggle we will be OK but you gotta see what they can do and see WHO can do it. Same thing as Dobnak\Perez last year. I'm not fine jamming untested players into the playoffs and this is our injury insurance. I'd like to know who we have to count on when Cruz and Sano are down with injuries and Rosario is hitting .200 for August and September. GAME ONE of the playoffs. Can Kiriloff contribute or does Marwin play 1B with Cave at DH while we pray Rosario pulls out of the funk. And then yes... I am worried about jamming them onto the roster for opening day 2021 untested like we are doing with Dobnak and Smeltzer this year and like we did with Hicks and Buxton. AFTER the off-season and after the roster is set with the shopping aisle closed and no information on if they can handle it or WHO can handle it. If they all show they can't handle it in 2020. We know that an alternative needs to be found for opening day 2021 to replace Cruz and Marwin and the little dollar's we have available can be allocated correctly instead of guessing. This is why Adrianza ties into this discussion. If Adrianza can repeat his performance, the team can identify if he fits into 2021 plans and maybe we only need two not three position players in addition to the 3 starters and bullpen arms. The logic is easy. Before you launch a rocket with lives on the line. It's a good idea to test it first.

The Goal is win this year And the goal is to win beyond this year And the goal is to manage payroll so we can afford key acquisitions such as Donaldson in the future to supplement the young prospects that they have already FULLY Committed to. The Front Office has already let us know by action that they have FULLY committed to the prospects. It doesn't matter if you or I agree or disagree with this, It's happening... it's a done deal so we might as well get used to the idea. You and I both know that they have committed to the prospects because they didn't acquire anyone at the trade deadline last July nor have they traded any prospects for starting pitching this off-season (As of yet). The clues are before us: Highly probable playoff team(Division Winner), Record breaking offense and a clear undeniable need for a starting pitcher at the deadline. You know they made phone calls and once they determined that the prospect price is too high for a starting pitcher under this context... they are telling all of us that they are committed to the prospects. The prospects were more important than a much needed starting pitcher upgrade for the 2019 playoffs. We can stretch this out into this off-season. 4 starting pitchers needed... none traded for with prospects (as of yet). All 4 starting pitchers signing FA contracts with a still obvious need for starting pitchers to support a returning record breaking offense and an expected playoff team. They are once again telling us... that they are committed to the prospects. It's a done deal... there is no sense fighting against it. If they are committed to them... and they are. Your quote "Who cares if it costs any of these 3 prospects PAs" is counter-productive. We already have equity invested into these prospects when we didn't trade any of them for starting pitching at the trade deadline. We will have even more equity invested in them when they don't move them for starting pitching this off-season. After 2020: The Twins will need to replace, Nelson Cruz, Marwin Gonzalez and Adrianza along with Odorizzi, Bailey, Hill, Clippard and May. The Money saved on these expiring contracts will get a big chunk taken out by raises going out to Sano, Pineda, Rosario, Rogers, Berrios, Buxton and Duffey. Leaving us with 7 new roster additions to identify in the off-season (3 starting pitchers, a couple of bullpen arms, a really big bat in Cruz and an interesting Marwin Gonzalez type player). The Twins might have 20 million ('m guessing) to work with in the off-season. I'm going to assume right now that we will not land 7 free agents with 20 million to work with unless we bring on a boat load of questionable 3 million dollar type FA additions and I don't recommend that. If the front office even wants to consider adding a high dollar FA next off-season(Not Saying they will). This means that the front office is COUNTING ON 600K talent coming up from the minors to fill some of those 7 spots for next season. If they are counting on the prospects... I think they are as I illustrate above... I'd rather they don't pull another Hicks, Buxton jam into CF before they are ready with no safety net for a debut on opening day 2021. Of all the prospects, the 3 mentioned in this article along with Royce Lewis are the highest rated and perhaps closest to major league ready. And of course after 2021 and into 2022: More free agents and more pay raises. You and I both know that payroll may go up but will not go up significantly. You and I both know that FA's are not guaranteed to sign on the dotted line if they have horses in Arizona even if they did. The prospects are coming and it better be this year. Start prepping now.

The getaway day lineup is perhaps the dumbest idea in the history of roster management.

Roster spots are for 3 things 1. Helping the team win now 2. Increasing in Value 3. Fixing someone's flaws to eventually help the team win now or increase in value. (Shouldn't exceed a month's time) If a player doesn't fit into any of these 3 things. They are a waste of precious 26 man roster space. This is how you keep the factory at full production. If Adrianza is "capable of filling in at multiple infield positions, including SS". We should allow him to fill in at multiple positions including SS. I'll let you designate the backup tag on him, if it helps.

It's OK.. It fits into the larger point and I want to be clear that I'm only using Rosario and Cave as an example to fit into the larger point, that there is no reason for Rooker, Kiriloff or Larnach to be "Impacted" by the Donaldson signing. "You say Rosario is the better player... OK... I won't disagree or argue that assessment. But, you will kill Cave with that assessment and I do know this. Jake Cave has 481 career AB's. Rosario has 2451 career AB's. You better be right. I don't know a lot about Baseball Prospectus's new DRC+ stat. I'm not dismissing it, but I'd like to play with the formula (whatever it is) before I pass any judgement on the stat.

Disclaimer: It wasn't my intention to turn this into an Adrianza discussion so as I continue on... I'll just remind the viewers that this isn't really about Adrianza, it's part of a larger point that comes from the article title "3 Twins Prospects Impacted By Josh Donaldson's Signing". Which is more likely: Adrianza at age 30 suddenly became a vastly better hitter than ever before? Or he had a career year in a relatively small sample size? I don't know and I'm not going to guess either. There is only one way to find out. The only thing I know for sure is this: If the front office agrees with you and they believe that it's a career year and don't give him playing time because of this pre-designation. They will make themselves be right. At which point, Adrianza will not increase in value at age 30 so it's a waste of precious roster space, he won't play enough to help the team win in 2020 and therefore is a waste of precious roster space and they will end up playing Adrianza anyway when injuries occur, even if they agree with you and assume that he is a less talented player. So... they are committing to rostering a less talented player. If he is wasting roster space, you might as well cut him right now and call up Rooker, Kiriloff or Larnach and give the roster space to someone who will play and increase in value in the process. Better for today and the future. I'm not saying it's impossible that he suddenly figured something out. You agree with me... This is my point. But I think it's far more likely that he's a .680 OPS guy that got hot for a few weeks last year. No offense intended but I don't trust you, I also don't trust myself in these matters and I don't trust the front office either, . I only trust the player to either succeed or fail. Once either of those two things happen, guessing is no longer required. Tying this all together with the OP "3 Twins Prospects Impacted By Josh Donaldson's Signing". Donaldson will only impact them if the Twins drop what they were doing in 2019 and go back to the traditional old school, Terry Ryan, Paul Molitor and Ron Gardenhire method of we got our 9 guys, that's all we need, let's hope we were right and extend our days of darkness longer than we should be in the dark.

Adrianza had an OPS of ,765. Paul Dejong had an OPS of .762 Nick Ahmed, Dansby Swanson, Jean Segura, Willie Adames all had lower OPS. I don't agree that Adrianza is a backup.

Let's try it this way. Forget Equal Time... I only used Equal time as a reference point to show what is possible. Let's use Jake Cave for an example. Last year Jake Cave had 228 AB's and he produced .805 OPS Last Year Eddie Rosario had 590 AB's and he produced .800 OPS Both are above average major league numbers. Why should Eddie Rosario be the designated a starter over Jake Cave? I'm not knocking Rosario, I love Eddie and wouldn't do such a thing. I am not advocating benching Rosario. What I'm doing? I'm stating that by designating one as the starter and the other as a backup, you are basically throwing away Jake Cave. Jake Cave will not increase in value and you are limiting your organization to only Eddie gaining in value. Let's say both Rosario and Cave both have around 500 AB's (This isn't an equal time argument) and let's say they keep the same OPS as last year. .805 for Cave and .800 for Rosario. In that scenario... who has more trade value? Rosario with 2 years of control at Arbitration prices or Cave with 5 years of control at league minimum prices? If Cave is worked into the lineup like his performance suggests that he should. Maybe next time they call the Marlins and try to trade him for a starting pitcher, maybe the Marlins will actually listen. If Cave remains designated as the backup... the Marlins will not listen. Or even more realistically... if Cave can produce as well or better than Rosario at 600K compared to Rosario at 7.75M, and if Rooker (for example) is given playing time and producing .800 OPS or better as well.. the Twins have two roster spots at 600K instead of Rosario at 7.75M and whoever else at 10M. That 17 million saved can then be re-invested into someone who will produce OPS over 1,000 in the off-season. If you keep throwing away the Cave's or Rooker's of the world... you will fill your roster with Arb Eligible Contracts and have no budget left. You must produce 600K talent and you can only do so by not designating Blankenhorn as utility or bench before he even hits the stage. I am saying that anybody on the roster that the manager doesn't trust to play, any player who joins the 26 man roster and becomes bench glue with the tag of backup, utility or someone you have to limit playing time for due to talent deficiency, that you should take them off the roster and find someone who doesn't have that pre-determined designation or it's a waste of valuable roster space for today and for the future. In the context of this article. "3 Twins Prospects impacted by the Josh Donaldson signing". Specifically listing, Rooker, Kiriloff and Larnach. I'm saying that Josh Donaldson better not impact them. If they are ready... Donaldson better not be in the way. I'm not advocating playing Rooker with .600 OPS so Rosario with a .800 OPS sits. I am advocating the exact opposite. I'm often surprised why and how often this idea I bring up frequently gets challenged but I've come to realize that the Twins organization hasn't thought this way for decades until last year so how can anyone really come to grips with it, if all they see is Terry Ryan, Paul Molitor old school type execution. Last year was the first year that the Twins made an effort to get everyone into the lineup and it worked quite well. Let's do it again... and if they do it again. Rooker, Larnach and Kiriloff won't have to worry about the Josh Donaldson high hurdle to clear because there is plenty of playing time and nobody should be glued to the bench. Unless you are not performing... if you are not performing. Then YES... play them less.

I'm not saying that either. I'm using equal rotation as a starting point to show that players don't have to be diminished if they are performing. You can roster more than 9 talented players and make it work. The whole reason for doing this is to avoid playing Logan Morrison everyday with only Ryan LaMarre to turn to and keeping the pipeline turning or to avoid giving Buxton or Hicks a job out of spring training with no safety net or to avoid wasting a 23 year old on the bench over .50 OPS points. If Rooker gets called up and struggles... send him down and call up the next guy. Its 2020 and we just watched Arraez grab the ball and run with it. If Arraez comes up as a backup and plays once a week we probably resign Schoop or Dozier this off season.

Exactly and so does Adrianza and even Arraez. If a middle infielder goes down we don't have to force a struggling middle infielder on to the roster to replace them. It can truly be the guy who is raking in Rochester. It could be Rooker or Kiriloff.

How does he exceed expectation? If he is viewed as backup at best?

Backup guys who don't play are the very definition of no value. You can't trade them for anything of value because you've labeled them as not good enough and if they don't play they don't help you win immediately and when you have to play them due to injury, they were already determined to be not good enough so you are purposely playing lesser talent and if they are good enough to play... sitting them just kills them anyway. As for the math. Are you sure that the 6 players we have are better? How much better? .300 OPS better or are they .50 OPS better? If you have Mike Trout on your team and he is .300 OPS better, I agree with you. He should play everyday. Will you bench a 23 year old for .50 ops? How do you know if the 23 year old isn't the guy who is .50 OPS or .300 better? If the 23 year old is .50 OPS better do you now bench Rosario and throw him away? It's your choice... you can increase value of 13 players or 9. If you choose 9 you better choose right because you have removed all cushion.