Riverbrian

I admit that I am making no attempts to factor in defense but .656 career for Margot and Kepler is a pretty clean comparison over thousands of AB's. Weather Kepler should or shouldn't be platooned is a whole other debate. However, Kepler hasn't started the last 10 games against a left hander so he is being platooned at least at the moment. We will see what happens tonight since the roster was just adjusted with Julien replaced by Lewis but my assumption is that he will not start against Rodon tonight and the platoon will continue. Basically... All the math that I did wasn't to support what I think they should do but an elementary attempt to show the result of what the Twins are doing.

Agreed in the case of Margot and I agree that platoons always make sense on paper. There is no denying the platoon advantage has proven itself over decades of data. For comparison sake. Let's forget about the young developing players who need to establish a track record to avoid being Joc Pederson at best. Let's just use players with a little bit of a track record. Career OPS Kepler vs LH: .656 Career OPS Margot vs LH: .758 Career OPS Kepler vs RH: .788 Career OPS Margot vs RH: .656 OPS isn't the be all end all but using OPS... It's pretty clear as a down and dirty stat. The numbers suggest that Kepler should face RH and Margot should face LH the platoon makes sense on paper and we have a partnership to handcuff based on the numbers. The 26 man roster commitment to it... is where the "On Paper" falls apart. In 2024 - Margot's equal 61 PA's against Right Handers and Left Handers thus far in the season is the Twins trying real hard to stay committed to it but the right handers keep stepping on the mound and become impossible to avoid. It's easy math - 50% of his AB's are against Right Handers. In 2024 - Kepler has 113 PA's against Right Handers and 24 PA's against left handers this year. 82% against Right Handers and 18% of his AB's are against left handers. In 2024 - There are 4 players who are tied for the plate appearance lead in 2024. Altuve, Arraez, Semien and Mikael Garcia all have 251 plate appearances. Because they lead all of baseball in plate appearances I'm going to assume that they are not being platooned and that's why I'm using those 4 players. Those 4 players combine to: 748 PA's vs RH 317 PA's vs LH That's 70% vs RH and 30% vs LH for the 4 every day guys not being platooned. In order to drop Kepler a total of 12% against left handers (30% to 18%) and play the platoon advantage. You give the platoon advantage right back and more by batting Margot 50% of the time against Right Handers. You give 20% in order to gain 12% and that's just the percentage which actually calms the optics a little because it doesn't reflect the imbalance of righties and lefties on the mound of the other 29 teams. Ideally... You'd like Kepler to have zero AB's against lefties and Margot zero AB's against right handers but the disparity isn't going to let that happen. However... let's use the zero AB model (which will never happen because of the disparity). Using 137 PA's that Kepler has taken this year. 30% against left handers would be 41 AB's. In order to shield Kepler from taking all of those 41 plate appearances against left handers you have to give Margot 61 AB's against right handers because Margot has 61 AB's against Right handers this year. That's plus 20 more AB's of .656 OPS on the bad side. It cost you 61 AB's of .656 to prevent 41 AB's of .656. Again... Career OPS for Kepler against left is .656 and Career OPS for Margot against right is .656 so they make perfect comparisons. Not to mention that it takes two roster spots in order to platoon in this fashion. Now times it by 3 because Farmer, Margot and Santana are all left handed pitcher specialists. With 13 spots... that's your entire extra player inventory used up to shield Kirilloff, Larnach, Wallner and Julien from left handers. Here's the team total... Kirilloff, Julien, Larnach(Wallner) add up to 504 plate appearances combined this season. 30% of that would be 151 PA's against left handers if they were not platooned. Santana, Margot and Farmer combined add up to 269 PA's against Right Handers so far this year. That's 118 extra AB's on the bad side just to try and prevent the 30%. They are giving up more than they get. Even the Lefty Specialist Poster Boy Kyle Garlick faced right handers 44% of the time. Which is of course 14% more than the 30% you are trying to protect. Not to mention... the atrophying taking place with our young left handed hitters which means that they will always have to protect them and therefore always need to roster Margot types year after year after year after year. Anyway... I agree with Margot being the wrong choice but I'm not sure more extreme splits will cover the imbalance. The Twins have simply over cooked this thing and are playing the split the wrong way.

2024 Margot: 61 Plate Appearances vs RH 61 Plate Appearances vs LH Career Margot .656 OPS vs RH This is what happens when you roster short siders. They may be left hander specialists but they face more right handers. In this case with the current numbers of 61 PA's against each hand. The team has to absorb 50% struggling performance in order to get a slight platoon advantage against 25% of the pitchers. Hard to justify

Maybe... Could be. However... He does appear to skip some when passing that message along.

Maybe Jeffers has a minor ouch. Just a random guess, rationalization.

Rocco has been pretty consistent with a 50-50 behind the plate and it is Vazquez's turn but Jeffers was getting extra AB's by DH'ing against the lefties. I just fully expect that Jeffers would not DH against left handers going forward with Miranda taking over those duties against left handers. And if that's the case... I'd expect the catching rotation to go 67-33 in favor of Jeffers. Vazquez starting tonight could mean that the 50-50 still lives. You make a good point. They may want to ease Lewis back in and DH him tomorrow. Tomorrow's lineup will be interesting and should provide lots of clues.

1. Larnach - DH 2. Correa - SS 3. Miranda - 1B 4. Kepler - RF 5. Lewis - 3B 6 - Kirilloff - LF 7 - Buxton - CF 8 - Castro - 2B 9 - Vazquez - C The only real surprise is Vazquez squatting tonight. Unless Jeffers is nursing something. Vazquez starting tonight is a pretty clear indication that Jeffers won't be DH'ing against left handers for the time being. With the lefty Rodon throwing tomorrow. Jeffers playing DH giving Vazquez back to back starts at C doesn't make a lot of sense. At the same time... DH'ing Vazquez tomorrow doesn't make much sense because he really shouldn't be DH'ing. Tomorrow I'll guess Miranda - DH Jeffers - C Santana - 1B Farmer - 2B Lewis - 3B Correa - SS Castro - LF Buxton - CF Margot - RF Vazquez draws the start at C tonight and that is a little surprising.

The Orangutan tried to hire a chimp but the behavior during the job interview was a little... Over the top. So the Orangutan hired Brian Dozier instead.

Thus Far - The Twins are mid-pack in almost everything. Sequencing will be the difference in Wins and Losses since neither the offense or defense will be providing cushion. We have a winning record so... so far so good on the sequencing front.

This is me

It isn't often that any player is hitting 1,000 on June 4th. I wonder if the television graphic has the space for 1,000 in the bottom display or will they have to drop the G in AVG to make room and avoid a smaller font. And of course... I also wonder when the games will return to my television. I'd really love to watch Royce play today.

At 33-26 they are 30 games above that .559 pace.

As if the Mahle trade wasn't bad enough. Now we've learned that we lost 7.6% TiH from Strand to Santana.

I don't know. Splinters was just used to suggest that Farmer would sit a lot based on the proposed scenario. Let's try this instead. Farmer's watch will be telling him to get up and walk around during games. That one might be better.

Quite Possible. Reasonable thoughts for sure. It won't take long to find out. Tuesday and Wednesday will provide a lot of information toward starters, platoons and pinch hitting going forward. It's a fun debate for now. Probably won't last long because an injury is sure to adjust it.

True... there would be no need to utilize Farmer as a pinch hitter with Castro. However, He would be a consideration for pinch hitting Kirilloff or Larnach because one will occupy the DH spot and the other LF... which of course Castro can always shift to. Margot playing CF would surprise me. Possible for sure but yet it would be surprising. Margot has had 20 Innings in CF this year but Castro and Martin were both chosen over him time and time again. Castro 2B and Margot CF seems like a weaker defensive middle than Farmer 2B and Castro CF. While the offensive difference between Farmer and Margot is marginal. I agree that Correa hasn't been subbed much thus far. But when he does it is surely Castro sliding over. However... the true test is going to be: Who and where does Rocco deploy when a player is out for 4 or 5 days but doesn't go on the IL. On a side note: Castro's usage has been interesting this year and will get even more interesting. So Far in 2024 SS - 164 Innings CF - 136 Innings 3B- 99 Innings LF - 94.2 Innings 2B - 3 Innings but this number is about to sky rocket. Starting every day - This guy has been living in the house for a long time and done so without a home.

I'll take a shot - Possible spoiler alert 1. Larnach - LF 2. Jeffers - C 3. Kepler - RF 4. Lewis - 3B 5. Correa - SS 6. Kirilloff - 1B 7. Buxton - CF 8. Castro - 2B 9. Miranda - DH

As much as I complain about the heavy usage of platoon. At the same time... I can't dismiss the possibility that it is working... at least a little bit. Still wouldn't do it to this degree because I think it has a time bomb attached to it but it's not like we are making plans for a high draft choice next year. If the playoffs started today. The Twins are in.

For the moment we are position player healthy at the major league level. For the first time this year. For the moment we will be able to look at the team play with the understanding that this was how the front office designed it to play. Winning or not winning during this time period makes a statement on the front office off-season plans. Injuries are no longer an excuse... at least for the moment.

That would leave Farmer getting splinters in his rear end.

The one thing that is obvious through all of this. The importance of Willi Castro is now off the charts. The team almost can't function without him and it can be argued that he becomes the most important player on the team.

If Miranda is leading the way as a DH. When does Kirilloff or Larnach play? Also if Miranda is a back up to Santana at 1B as you mention. That would be hard to justify in my eyes. Kirilloff or Larnach splitting AB's against Right Handers would be hard to justify in my eyes. Miranda reduced to short side DH work would be very little reason to keep him. If Santana ends up with full time duties out of this deal. I will scream loudly.

Farmer has to get more playing time with Lewis returning and Julien gone or else Farmer is going to be used so sparingly that his roster position can't be justified. Unless Miranda plays 2B we don't have the cover at the position anymore. Juliens role has to be replaced by Castro... If not Castro... It's Farmer every day. So let's assume Castro takes Juliens Role because I'm sure that he will. Farmer would retain his short side duties at 2B However. Castro will add Juliens role while retaining his other roles with the club. 1. OF against Left Handers - Castro hits left handers best... If he isn't in the lineup against left handers... We will all know that the Twins have gone off the deep end. If Castro is in the OF against left handers... Farmer has to play 2B. 2. CF when Buxton needs a maintenance day or plays the occasional DH. These Buxton maintenance days will occur against right handers so unless Margot steps into this CF role... Which I guess is possible... Although, Castro sure seems to be Rocco's first choice when Buxton takes time off. With Castro in CF... This means Farmer has to play 2B because there is nobody else unless Miranda plays 2B. 3. SS when Correa needs a maintenance day. Correa took yesterday off. Correa will get maintenance days right handers. When that happens Castro will have to slide over to SS and that makes Farmer play 2B unless MIranda can play 2B because there is nobody else. Unless Rocco leaves Castro at 2B so making Farmer play SS. Either way... Farmer is playing against a right handed pitcher. Basically... Farmer keeps his short side job but adds starts against Right handed pitching due to the necessity of Castro playing CF and SS. With Julien on the roster... it was possible to limit Farmer to short side platoon work. So unless Miranda plays 2B. Farmer's playing time has to increase.

It's a good question. Which brings us back to the bigger issue. Righties may be more platoon proof but 75% of pitchers are right handed and there is still a platoon disparity. With Julien sent down. If health remains... it won't... but if health remains. The Roster is now: 3 left handed hitters 8 right handed hitters 2 switch hitters Starting lineups against lefties will be 9 in the right handed batter's box with one extra. The extra will be the catcher spot. They are loaded up to the hilt against left handed pitching. Starting lineups against righties will be 4 in the right handed batter's box with two extra (Margot and Farmer) plus the catcher spot for the 3rd extra and 5 in the left handed batters box with one extra (Santana). I'll continue to claim that this is backwards since 75% of the pitching is right handed. Yes... the platoon split is larger lefty against lefty but if the Twins really want to play the platoon split... they need more left handers because of all the right handed pitching. The split may not be as big righty against righty but the platoon advantage is still there. Replacing Farmer and Margot with left handed bats will balance things better against the primary hand. Let's say they bring Julien back to replace Farmer. Or Brooks Lee for those who really really want that. And just for fun... Let's call up Keirsey. Or... ERod for those who really really really want that. We could even put Wallner into consideration. Here is your starting lineup against those 75% right handers. DH - Larnach C- Jeffers 1B - Kirilloff 2B - Julien or Lee 3B - Lewis SS - Correa LF - (Keirsey or Erod or Wallner) CF - Buxton RF - Kepler Extras - Miranda, Castro and Santana and Vazquez. These extras will provide better cover against the 75% of right handed pitchers that they will face... when injuries occur. We have options to turn to when players struggle against the primary hand. As it stands right now Farmer, Margot and Santana will have to provide the cover and they are below average against right handers and therefore... not decent cover. Against those 25% left handers. DH - Miranda C - Jeffers 1B - Santana 2B - (Julien or Lee) 3B - Lewis SS - Buxton LF - Castro CF - Buxton RF - Kepler Extras - Larnach, Kirilloff, (Keirsey or Erod or Wallner) and Vazquez. All you have to do is let a couple of lefties hit against left handers and that will occur 25% of the time.

According to reports... It is Julien (probably) going down to make room for Lewis. Right hander for the Yanks on Tuesday. Left hander on Wednesday so it'll only take two games to discover Rocco's platoon rotation. What I laid out above on Saturday seems to be the only platoon rotation that makes sense. 1. Castro will have to assume Julien's Role at 2B against right handers. Farmer remains short side 2B as Castro moves to LF against the lefties. 2. Correa, Buxton, Lewis, Castro and Miranda are the 5 players who will play against both hands. 3. Farmer's playing time will increase because Castro will have to abandon his 2B post to play CF and SS when Buxton and Correa need maintenance days and they will get maintenance days. 4. Castro becomes very difficult to take out of the lineup. Farmer will also face the right hander at 2B if Castro ever gets a day off. 5. Miranda, Kirilloff and Larnach can rotate the DH spot against right handers. With Kirilloff playing some 1B and LF. 6. Rocco does have the option of throwing Jeffers into the DH vs Right Handers mix to get him some extra playing time on those Vazquez starts. Jeffers was locking down the DH spot vs left handers. His DH time if it happens... will now happen when Right Handers are on the mound. Otherwise We shouldn't see Jeffers in the DH spot against lefties and this should knock down Vazquez's playing time down from 50% to 33%. Jeffers two out of three is my guess. 7. When a left hander is on the mound. Miranda should lock into DH and Santana should be a lock at 1B. 8. The platooned lefties: Kepler, Kirilloff and Larnach. 9. The short siders: Farmer, Margot and Santana. 10. What happened to that log jam?