Scenario 1) We offer him the QO and he accepts it
Scenario 2) We offer him the QO and prior to accepting or declining, we work out an extension.
Scenario 3) We offer him the QO and he declines. This likely means we would get a compensatory pick in the low 30s of the 2027 draft. Though a potential lockout mucks up that picture a little.
Scenario 4) He’s traded at the deadline, which would disallow the new team from giving him the QO - this would be Scott Boras’ favorite, so I think we can assume he’ll apply whatever leverage he can, to push this towards happening
Scenario 5) He’s not traded at the deadline. Not offered the QO. And becomes a free agent at the end of the season.
At the very least the QO becomes a factor in what we should be potentially asking for him at the trade deadline. If we think we will make him a QO, then the very least we should ask for in return, from another team should be the same value as a Compensitory pick.
It will probably be difficult to know much more about the QO situation by the trade deadline because he just will not have been back from his injury for very long at that point. In the same way that it might be difficult for a team looking to trade for Jeffers to know exactly what he’s going to give them post-deadline and might be unwilling to fork over value in prospects that the Twins view as equivalent to a QO. Regardless of if the Twins think they will give him a QO, they should definitely make it known that they think it’s a strong possibility
Ultimately, we just won’t know by the trade deadline, because when he comes back, if he plays like he did before his injury, then it feels like kind of an easy YES, but if he goes back to more average catcher performance it feels like an easy NO. In my mind this uncertainly really diminishes the chances he’s traded at the deadline.