DesertTwinsFan

They would have done better. They have some talented starting pitchers.

Keep the field the same, I like their lineup a lot. I've never been a big home run fan, and if MLB addresses the live ball issue, a lot of those home runs will turn into fly outs next year, but these guys hit hard and hit for average as well. Pitching - blow it up.

After chewing on this a bit, there are still a lot of good teams left in the playoffs and I expect a lot of good games. Looking forward to seeing some of the other series this season has to offer.

Ha! Was there really even a chance with the pitching staff we have? Maybe average at best, given the schedule we played. We'll probably, should score a few runs, but our f-ing owners won't address the need for a couple stud pitchers if they want a winner. I call them out - they don't give a $%^$ to have a real winner, just good enough to win a few games.

I agree. They are playing very well, as is Oakland and Tampa Bay, although the Rays have a tough schedule the next several games. If Cleveland catches the Twins, we'll have seen an incredibly fun season end with the Twins not even getting 1 playoff game.

To be a math nerd, you are correct that 25% is wrong, but note that Negative said a 25% increase, not decrease, as you calculated. It's a 12.4% increase from 1.93 to 2.17, and a 11.1% decrease the other way. I agree with others that taking 2 years with that difference won't allow drawing conclusions, but looking at each of the years between those two will. Common sense to me says that if you are in a tight race (and even with only 8 games left, the Twins have little room for error or could miss the playoffs), you only afford resting your best players if you have adequate backups. The Twins seem to be ok with that.

The bad fielding concerns me. This team is in the lower half of the league in fielding, an aspect of the game that used to be a strength. With their pitching staff, the Twins don't have a lot of room for error when (if) they get to the playoffs. Don't give the opposition more outs! With 10 games remaining, I think they still need to win 5 or 6 to make the playoffs.

I don't understand the math. In my mind, the Twins have to win 7 (their magic number going into today), or at least I absolutely don't count on Cleveland losing 5. I look at it from the lens of them winning out, and they may, although I expect them to lose a couple, with Philly and Washington on their schedule. If the Twins win only 5 (and they have already won 2 since the above post), I think they not only lose the division, but miss the postseason entirely. There is still work to do, guys. Finish strong!

Full disclosure: I also previously posted about the Twins' poor record vs. teams above .500, just before the Boston series, but in reality, it's not so bad in the AL at least: Houston 4-3 Tampa Bay 5-2 Cleveland 9-9 as we all know chance to take the series today (interesting 4-6 at home, 5-3 away) Boston 3-3 Oakland 3-4 NYY 2-4 If you want to throw in Texas, at just 2 under .500 - 6-1 NL - Bombed. Lost all 4 series 1-2 against NL East teams above .500 (says something about the strength of that division), split with Milwaukee. 32-35 overall (throwing out Texas) Sure AL Central is weak, but also note the Twins are 20-12 against the East and 23-10 against the West. I recall that some of their past playoff teams struggled to hit .500 against those divisions. They won every series against teams under .500 this year, so they are consistent. The Twins deserve to be where they are, hopefully win today although now they should still be able to comfortably take the division anyway, and finish strong. I've seen many Twins playoff teams (and other Minnesota teams for that matter) limp into the postseason losing their last games to poor competition, even when the games still had some meaning. Even resting some, I feel they should still beat up the remaining competition. Finish strong, guys!

How does it look now? Took the first two in Cleveland! Big sigh of relief. Division isn't won yet, but if the Twins can't hold the lead at this point, they aren't playing playoff-worthy ball or Cleveland is or both. The odds of winning the division thing makes me laugh once again. Maybe they haven't updated it since the Twins swept today, although their record has been updated, but last I checked (granted, a few days ago) they had ~ 95% chance of winning the division. Now it's at 77%. And predicted number of wins would have the Twins going 8-6 against Cleveland (1 game) and the rest of the Central. While they have the Indians going 9-4 against the Twins, Philly, Washington, and other division foes. WTF?

Doesn't win the Central, but man, it sure makes me breathe a little easier getting a win in the first game of this series. I've been seeing flames falling from the sky for the past week.

Cooper - I have seen too many misses. It makes me expect the worst, although I think you are basically correct. But I really agree with Rochester that those Fangraphs (and in-game) odds are pretty bogus. I would love to see an analysis of how accurate they are. That said, odds are in the Twins' favor, and they control their destiny.

JW - Despite my first post, I agree that taking 2 of the next 4 will bring lots of comfort and probably will get the Twins in, especially if those 2 are both against Cleveland. Plus I keep reminding myself that after Cleveland, we end with 13 games against KC, Chicago, and Detroit, while Cleveland has to take on two playoff hopefuls in Philly and Washington, in addition to a couple division foes. Cleveland definitely have the tougher road, but they also are playing well, and painful as it is to admit, their starting pitching makes me think that if they get in, Cleveland has better potential to make a playoff run than the Twins.

I'm with you. I already posted my fear that they won't even make the playoffs. If they lose the next 4, I think Cleveland, Tampa, and Oakland all pass them up. It's just my Minnesota training, I hope.

I definitely agree that the Twins will need Berrios in top form every start if they are to go anywhere. But watching them lose 2 of 3 to Cleveland and again tonight the the Nats, I'm starting to fear them missing the playoffs entirely. Cleveland has a tougher last 12 games then the Twins, but if they win their next 4 (sweep the Twins), I could see them beating the Twins out around the last day or two, while the Rays and A's pass the Twins as well. That would be one of the worst cases of Minnesota losing out ever, and we have a few bad ones. Sorry to be a downer.