bunsen82

Ignore Cheppit - look we can all have strong opinions - there is way too many games to play and likely changes in the standings to have an answer right now. As much as I can be fairly confident they want to trade them, I can also acknowledge they may not have a buyer willing to purchase at the prices they are willing to trade, or that the fan base as evidenced by this thread would be so upset by the trade. Some want answers now and specifics and are not willing to let this play out. He states players don't get good returns, when obviously we got a good return for Cruz, we wouldn't be where we currently are without Ryan. Ultimately its managements decision and whether they prioritize increasing this years chances at winning a WS or maximizing the chance in the future.

The haul we got for Cruz was pretty good. If we were to get one with a slightly better 2nd prospect for Correa that would be interesting. I guess we shouldn't have traded Cruz last year. You never know maybe with him we get on a hot streak get to the playoffs and we could have been the Braves last year.

Right now if I were to list a pecking order Yankees (they have prospects down the line for SS, for a 2 month rental go for it all I could see them do it), Padres (especially if Tatis has a setback), Milwaukee (they may view this as their best opportunity to go for it all), Mets or Angels possible, it is really hard to say. I think you are restricting the list a bit more than people who might actually be interested. We have no clue what will happen with players whether injured or severely underperforming. Darkhorse might be Dodgers. They could move Trea Turner back to 2nd base for a couple months. It is too hard to say right now. Plus the standings may be completely different in a couple months.

Tampa Bay generally trades after the season from the players on their initial contracts. When was the last time Tampa Bay signed a superstar on effectively a 1 year contract? The closest thing they had was Morton who underperformed in 2020 then got injured and Tampa didn't want to pay him the 15 million option. This contract due to its oddity is creating the uncertainty as to how management views it and wants to manage it. This is the second time someone has asked who is willing to trade. I don't think that is the effective question. The question is at the time the Twins are willing to trade if they are, is will anyone due to injuries, expectations or possibly just willing to throw all caution to the wind make a splash. For a player of Correa I think someone will offer a very good offer to entice the Twins, I guess when you look at it from that viewpoint, the offer will have to be very good for the twins to forgo having him in the playoffs. If the buyers are not there this whole discussion is moot.

They are not good options but they are options. The depth is being tested, at least for Joe it will likely only be a single start that will be affected. If we have another injury in the near term then it begins to get difficult.

Mike - that is the likely difference between a small/mid market team vs a big market teams. Similar to the Rays we need to maximize all assets. Otherwise you tend to have peak and bottom organizational levels as you are competing and using/losing potential assets vs continually maximizing. There will always be teams willing to pay up to go for it all. If you think this is the year the Twins should take their shot, then fine. Ultimately I don't think this is the year. I would rather have a team and an organization that has a little more experience and a little more seasoning before going all in. Tampa Bay has consistently been at the top by continually trading out future higher priced veterans to rebuild their pipeline. This is not an easy decision by any means, I would love to keep him but I think the team would want to make sure he is willing to stay with the Twins. That likely involves a new contract.

Mike there is that aspect, but when you have players that are now always focused on pulling the ball, we have hitters now that are unable and unwilling to use the whole field. Kepler is becoming more of a well rounded hitter by when the ball is on the outer half of the plate going with it and hit it opposite field. Once teams stop shifting him as drastically when he does pull the ball it will open up that side of the field more as well. The Twins seemed to switch early in their season their approach at the plate. You look at a team like the Blue Jays and they haven't figured it out and are struggling.

You also do realize he switch to Boras last year and Boras has to split all earnings with the previous agent. It is common knowledge in baseball that Correa is expected to opt out. The additional years were insurance for Correa due to an injury or drastic decrease in production that would have limited his value. Look the title of that article is oddest contract and this is an odd situation. I fully admit I would love to see them continue at this pace and them to ride it out. I also realize this is a long season, I think the team is slightly outperforming currently - especially thanks to facing weak competition in this stretch. Lets wait to see what happens. https://sportsnaut.com/mlb-expects-carlos-correa-opt-out-of-twins-contract/#:~:text=In perhaps the oddest MLB,contract with the Minnesota Twins.

If Correa is willing to resign another 1 year deal with option years then yes I could see that happen, but he wants the 7-10 year mega contract. It’s the reason he switched to Boras. Unless he likes Minnesota so much he changes course and is willing to give a discount.

They traded for Pagan and Paddack because of the LONG TERM value of the trade 3 years of Paddack 2 of Pagan vs 1 of Rogers. They are willing to take on Paddacks injury risk because of his upside - and because if it fails they are switching to a new procedure that is generally 9-12 months to heal, not the 18-24 months in the past. These saw Paddack and Pagan as someone they could get more value out of, for the long term. That is my stance, currently as it stands for this year it is Pagan for Rogers straight up - this wasn't a win now move. It was a move based on the long term. They needed another arm for the bullpen because they needed another arm especially with the question marks they had. I agree with their rational on relievers, that you don't pay them, but also they are the last piece you go for, because they are the cheapest thing to acquire in trades. You can always get that at deadline and when you are fully prepared to put your chips in. Now see your viewpoint differs from everyone else on this board, because they do not see Paddack and Pagan as a win now move. It was getting rid of your best reliever who impacts games, just like he is doing in San Diego right now. It is clear what most people think of that trade. Your stance is one that isn't main stream, just like my view point on them trading Correa isn't mainstream. let me have my opinion and move on.

I have given more than enough supporting info and I still stand by both trades, fyi you have never disputed the Indians trade that they were still in contention, even if you disputed the value he had to the pitching staff. I state fairly certainly this is a strong possibility, because I believe this was managements plan all along. Now they may deviate, I am giving them that ability, but you don't generally change from your plan unless either something has changed significantly or you are unable to get the return you expected. I can be confident in a trade and not know who the trade partners is. I think they maintain with the plan even if they are winning, if Lewis is still performing well and looks like the heir apparent at shortstop. My brother is trying to sell his house, it only takes one person who at the time wants it. It may be because they feel desperate it may be because they think its a great value, or it may be because something else fell through and they think this is as good of a fallback option as possible. Now in this case he is trying to sell in what has quickly become a more depressed housing market - so the value that was there a month ago may not still be there now. There are lots of variables that can affect the final outcome. Even still similar to what I view the Twins, it is his intent to sell the house. There is a better than 80% chance it gets sold. My viewpoints are what I view Managements viewpoints as, and they haven't been traditional in how they have operated and I don't anticipate it to suddenly switch to a traditional management style. I think everything is transactional to them, they want to sell high and buy low and never leave value on the table unless they truly have a shot at winning it all. So with that as my base case, I see very little chance they don't trade Correa, due to asset maximization. You think 75% is pie in the sky, actually I think its fairly reasonable, all things considered I think they trade 3 out of 4 times. They either fall out of the hunt, they remain in the hunt but it is fairly clear they are not a WS caliber team and or they are still leading the division and they still stick to the plan. You don't trade Rogers if you are going for it all, even if you think Paddack could be a #2 or #3 starter. You trade Rogers for the long term value of the trade. For everyone who thinks they will not trade Correa this all comes back to Rogers, true contenders don't trade their best reliever. Until you can reconcile and explain that away that trade I maintain my viewpoint, the thing is you can disagree. I could really care less. My view point is mine, yours is yours, its obvious we aren't going to convince each other. We won't know the outcome for a couple more months so lets bygones be bygones and let it play out.

My whole philosphy has been if the Twins were still competing they would do something similar to this offseason, being buyers and sellers at the same time and rearranging the deck chairs. You could improve your team for this year and improve your top level prospects. Arreaz may be changing my opinion on first base, it as an untraditional fit, but he is an asset there in either case with his bat. If you can consolidate our prospects to more elite prospects, even if they need another year or two of season, you do that, and you trade some of your other prospects that will decrease the rule V crunch and losing some assets for nothing. SS appears to be an area of strength. Now it is just as possibly that we have Lewis play in other positions, to keep both players on the team. I think he has the makeup, but I also did see he was 0-5 the other night that he was in the outfield. Players generally like consistency.

Those 2 WS teams were much different than this team. As much as I like this years pitching no one has the Pedigree of a Viola, Blyleven or Morris. WS are won generally by a elite pitching, either through elite SP or an elite bullpen. The Twins have neither. Yes, there is always a chip and a chair, but what is the difference if were to get bounced in the first round with or without Correa? Teams and players can get hot similar to the Braves last year but the odds are incredibly slim. You can correct arguments as to why not to trade, there are also reasons to trade. The Yankees or a small market team that want to take a chance this year are likely the landing spot would be my guess but ultimately its not worth pondering. Honestly I just looked at the standing but there really aren't many middle of the pack teams currently. Angels, Arizona, Giants, Brewers (may want to take their chance this year), Yankees (can't trade with Red Sox have a high need), Padres (just to stack another elite player) plus anyone else who has an injury to SS or gets hot. It is too hard to predict and frankly its not worth my time. That also ignores teams like the dodgers that just pick up elite players and find a spot for them or someone else for a couple months. You are correct, the twins might be interested in trading but have no viable buyers. I don't have all the answers. Damn you can also come up with a ton of excuses why the prospects will fail. It is all probabilities, the more elite prospects you have the better chance you 1-2 or several will excel. Lewis looks like he belongs in the big show. As some point you let your prospects show, no different than the Astros. There are a ton of bats on the prospect lists, some will fail some will surprise. Lets just have some patience.

You definitely extend. They have outperformed by a wide margin of mid to small market teams. I would say only the rays have done better. The depth in the minor leagues is where they get the extension. Every level was stacked until we started raiding AAA for the MLB. The issue is that depth will begin to cause issues on the Rule V front. That is a good problem to have. There is nothing out there that would likely be better and has shown the relative consistency that they have. We have ample bats and pitchers in the minor leagues to likely continue this success.

Then what about the Indians they weren't competing? You can blow your horn all you want. You admit they aren't an elite team with an extremely slim to no chance in the playoffs so why not trade for players that will likely help us when our window is actually open?

They were stars to their respective teams, no different than a Buxton or even a Correa for what he has provided to the Twins. You may dislike the comparisons but it doesn't negate they actually occurred- and fyi they must have been better than chopped liver because both teams got very good returns. We have no idea where the Twins will be in another month, there is a possibility the starting Pitching falls apart - none of these pitchers other than Gray are used to the number of innings of a full season. Its why we were working with a 6-7 pitcher rotation. Losing Paddack hurts. We are feasting on the bottom dwellers, which a top team should. We will see how they do against elite competition which occurs in June. You still haven't shown this is an elite team. Other than Duran and Smith the RP are rather ho hum, the starting pitchers again are very untested to 150 innings or more. I stand by there is a better than 75% chance Correa gets traded, I know fully where you stand. This includes the possibility the Twins fall back in the standings, and 2nd we still trade him even though we are in the hunt. This management shown by this years moves is playing the long game. Correa fell in their lap we will see what happens.

I think its an 75% chance they trade him which is different than most. In another thread we hashed out the reasoning. It is not unheard of for teams still trying to compete such as the Indians in 2019 trading Trevor Bauer. The other being Tampa Bay trading Chris Archer. Trevor was having a down year and Archer was starting to lose his elite stuff. Correa is definitely more respected than those players but he is also not having a top 10 performance so far this year either, but so far he has been very very good. It really comes down to what is your time horizon and whether you think this team has a legit shot at winning it all. As constructed I don't think management ever thought they would do this well. They are slightly outperforming. The SP depth is really starting to get tested with injuries and I think we are starting to see the beginning stages of the bullpen started to get a bit of overuse. The bats are performing better. Even still this iteration is 1-2 years away from being truly elite is my personal opinion and the organization would be better off trading Correa than having him on the team another 2 months. Now would I be open to contract extension especially if he were to give a decent discount, would I also keep him if he stated he would not opt out this year - the answer to both is yes. The ideal situation is Correa isn't satisfied with his production this year and comes back on his contract for another year or more likely scenario is he signs another 1 year contract with another option year or two so Boras gets his full cut. We are starting to get a lot of prospects coming up, and the team is set to either play small ball in a dead ball era or go the masher route. That is the one nice thing with the prospects - there is a variety in skillset. We will know more come July and we will see if the Twins are still in contention. As long as Arreaz and Kepler and Celestino are hitting solidly, (both arreaz and Celestino above .300 - in this new dead ball year I think the offense will do fairly well). This is clearly a wait and see at this point.

Well there was clamoring and concern on Akil Baddoo who really only got hot for 12 games at the beginning of the season last year. This year has been a rough year for him. Celestino appears to have a better bat than Baddoo. It is definitely a small sample size, however hhe has been really consistent in the minor leagues hitting right around 270 to 290 every year. So a 280 to 290 BA for the year would not be surprising - his current 350 is outperforming that by a fairly wide margin. That is a still a valuable player for the Twins either as a full time outfielder or 4th outfielder. With a deader ball, batters that can extend the count and make contact have more value than a homer happy player that strikes out a ton and is now struggling to get it over the wall. Give me 9 players like Celestino and Arraez and you will win a lot of games. I would be okay with a reiteration of the piranha team from 2006 to 2008, would be more entertaining than the three true outcomes that we have seen for the last couple of years.

1. Players the Twins are willing to resign they don’t trade away ie Cruz. We only traded when we weren’t going to resign and the timing was right. 2. We traded Berrios away with 1 1/3 years left on his contract hence the return. 3. We would be trading Correa away with essentially 2 months left unless he doesn’t opt out which is incredibly slim. Hence the likely return of 1-2 very good prospects. I showed you two teams that were competing for division titles or playoffs when the trades were made.

Their job is to put the best product on the field and plan for the long term future. So you would trade Correa for 1-2 top end prospects. You have Lewis to fill in for Correa. From the small sample size we saw, Lewis provided similar or maybe even better production than Correa - so your theory on losing at the position isn’t as accurate. The biggest position on the field to improve would be first base and possibly corner outfield and I do think we need more relief pitching. So if we can then begin using prospects that we would likely lose in a rule V and possibly 1 very good prospect you may be able to pull it off. It is counterintuitive trading Correa and getting Bell, they may get someone else who has a year or two left on their contract. Ultimately they want to improve the team and improve the impact prospects in the system while willing to shed some prospects that have value that we will potentially lose. It is all about roster management and maximizing as much value as possible while appeasing fans, owners and players.

Did we have team option on Cruz on his first deal? Just curious and ultimately we continued to sign him until we traded. Your reading comprehension regarding the trade needs help. I said Correa plus prospects. Who knows how many or what the front office wants to achieve. Relief pitching is cheap though.

Time will tell. I have more than supported my viewpoints. The only player Twins have not traded is May. Not a key cog or would bring a big haul. I have shown teams have traded very good players even when they were playoff teams. You sure like to change what you expect for proof throughout this. You set one line then change it and go further out. I may be wrong I can admit that. You refuse to acknowledge any possibility they will trade him. Maybe the twins could pull off something where they get a Bell at first base get a couple reliever and 1-2 high end prospects for Correa and couple mid level prospects. The team would potentially be better and the organization long term would potentially be better off.

That’s not what you asked, you asked have any all stars been traded from competing teams. I gave you two. Yes Correa is even a better player which means the return should be good. Look both the Guardians and Rays run their organization similar to the Twins so to ignore this as a possibility is rather naive.

Both player I mentioned have WAR over 20, Correa has a WAR near 35. He only has a WAR of .6 this year so it’s not as if he is the best player in the league at his position or even on the Twins. They had value because of their past achievements. I also agree this wouldn’t be conventional, but this isn’t a conventional contract or situation. This was created due to the lockout Correa changing agents, the Twins creating cash to go after Story, becoming a bridesmaid in that situation and then Correa’s agent contacted the twins Twins for a 1 year deal with insurance for Correa creating it into a 3 year deal. He was effectively a merc willing to go to the team with the highest offer. It worked out for both sides.