Matthew Lenz

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For the first time since 2017, the Twins made a selection in the MLB phase of the Rule 5 Draft this December. He'll have to make the team to stay with the organization, but if he does, he could be a difference-maker for them. Are we overlooking that upside? Image courtesy of Reading Fightin Phils The 23-year-old Eiberson Castellano had a phenomenal 2024 season, wherein he posted a 3.40 FIP and a 24.6% strikeout minus walk rate between High-A Jersey Shore and Double-A Reading. Although he’s likely to work as a long man out of the bullpen if he stays with the Twins, 20 of his 22 appearances were starts last year. While he was great, the Phillies weren't completely off their rocker in not protecting the 2018 international signee. Not only did it take him more than three years to throw his first professional pitch in the States, but his results varied greatly in the seasons leading up to 2024, as he bounced back and forth between being a reliever and a starter. Now, as the Twins begin spring training, the 6-foot-3 hurler will look to show why he was “one of the more intriguing arms in the draft,” according to Geoff Pontes of Baseball America. In a podcast series doing a deep dive into each farm system, Pontes and JJ Cooper named Castellano a “non-top-10 prospect to watch” for the Minnesota Twins. “I think that there's a chance that this guy could be actually a useful long-term pitcher for the Twins,” Pontes said. It's not often that you can pluck a healthy starter with plus stuff (coming off a great season) in the Rule 5 Draft, and the Twins would be remiss to let this opportunity go to waste even if Castellano falters during spring training. In addition to working out of the bullpen, the Venezuelan (wait, a Venezuelan pitcher acquired via the Rule 5 Draft - sound familiar?) has the ability to make spot starts as needed or piggyback with Simeon Woods Richardson at times. For the Twins, there's indirect value in rostering a swingman who could reduce the pressure on David Festa and Zebby Matthews to make spot starts with the Twins, allowing them to really hone their craft in St. Paul instead until a larger opportunity opens up in the big-league rotation. For what it's worth, PECOTA projects an ERA north of 4.00 and a 12.4% strikeout-minus-walk rate. This would make him a slightly below-average pitcher, but relatively speaking, those are solid numbers for the role he’d be in with the Twins. Looking past 2025, Castellano represents depth at a position where you can never have enough of it. While the Twins have developed one of the best pitching pipelines in baseball and control their top arms for the foreseeable future, it's not out of the question for Castellano to move into the back end of the rotation somewhere down the line. Organizational floors are set by the performance of their star players, but how far they can go beyond their floor relies on role players and depth. Castellano’s potential contributions (along with other role players) could help this team go from competitive to contender—or from contender to honest-to-God winner. Players of his type can be invaluable to an organization, especially as a pitcher, and it's time we start looking at Castellano as such. View full article

Soooo what say you? Are the Twins close or not so much?

The Minnesota Twins enter the 2025 season with largely the same core of players who finished the 2024 campaign. Looking past a historic collapse, the Twins were a playoff team for much of last season and multiple outlets are not only predicting the same in 2025 but also like them to take the American League Central crown. While not one of the team’s stars, a productive season from left-handed reliever Kody Funderburk is crucial to the Twins turning those predictions into reality. Image courtesy of © Matt Blewett-Imagn Images / © Landon Bost/Naples Daily News/USA TODAY Network-Florida / USA TODAY NETWORK Of course, the Twins’ season largely rests on the shoulders of its best players, and it’s those players that provide a very solid floor for the team to win 70 odd games. It’s the contributions of the role players that elevate this team from a fringe competitive team to a team vying for a playoff spot and division title. Funderburk is one of two southpaw relievers that are on the 40-man roster and represents one of those players who are make or break for the 2025 season. Went Wrong in 2024? Funderburk was very effective in 24 of his relief appearances in 2024. Unfortunately, he made 27 appearances total and the three that weren’t as effective inflated his overall line to a 4.55 FIP with a poor 10.6% strikeout minus walk rate and an elevated home run rate. Nearly half of his earned runs from last season came in just three appearances. Other than a four earned run outing on May 5th, Funderburk was well on his way to establishing himself as a very reliable big-league reliever two months into 2024. Then, on May 28th he was optioned to St. Paul in favor of Diego Castillo. His peripherals in St. Paul were very good which led to him being recalled on June 21st. After another stretch of effective appearances, Funderburk’s pitch velocities and spin rates dropped considerably in back-to-back appearances on July 8th and 12th. While a link between injury and those data points has never been publicly confirmed, it may explain why he wasn’t used for nine days and placed on the injured list with a left oblique strain which effectively ended his season. It’s not unusual for a reliever's stats to be heavily inflated by just a few appearances so, aside from staying healthy, I’m not overly concerned with his ability to make an impact for the Twins this season although it may not be right away. What Can Go Right in 2025? Although we have a fairly limited sample of just 46 ⅔ big-league innings across 38 appearances, Funderburk has been a very good reliever outside of the three aforementioned outings. He’s an extreme groundball pitcher who has excelled in generating weak contact, so I’m not worried about his home run rate from 2024. Moreover, he’s been serviceable against both handed hitters, but particularly effective against lefties due to having three pitches with above average movement. YmtNeDFfWGw0TUFRPT1fQkZBSFZsY0JCVllBQVZSV1Z3QUFCUTRGQUFBQUFBSUFVQVJRVWdFRFZ3WUJWZ3RX.mp4 His slider specifically features some of the best glove slide movement in baseball and devastated his left-handed counterparts with a 46.5% whiff rate and 90.2 mile-per-hour average exit velocity. While righties don’t whiff on the pitch nearly as often, they’re also susceptible to weak contact and had a .241 batting average against in 2024. His sinker, used almost exclusively against left-handers, is another offering with good movement although opponents handled the pitch fairly well in 2024 with a .422 wOBA (for what it’s worth, it was .058 in 2023). Again, it’s important to remember we’re dealing with pretty small sample sizes here.When he gets his opportunity, projection models like the 28-year-old to be an above average reliever in 2025 and I think that’s reasonable considering his arsenal and the depth of the Twins bullpen that should allow for Rocco Baldelli to use his relievers in the positions that make them the most successful. How Will This Impact the Twins? You may have noticed that I previously suggested that Funderburk’s impact may not happen “right away” in 2025 This is in part due to the bullpen only having two or three open spots for about five competing arms, and if we read the tea leaves from Baldelli’s first interview from camp we get an idea of how things may shake out. While answering a question regarding recently acquired southpaw Danny Coulombe, the Twins skipper said “We have a [need for a left-handed reliever] to fill on our roster. And I have longer term hopes that Kody Funderburk can also do some of those things too.” Coulombe’s spot on the active roster was never up for debate so it’s not overly surprising to hear Baldelli talk about him feeling that gap on the roster. What may be a little surprising is the phrase “longer term hopes” that seems to indicate Funderburk is likely to start the year with the Saints before he even gets his first opportunities in camp.. Regardless, as Twins’ fans are all too familiar with, injuries and poor performance will come and when they do Funderburk likely represents one of the first bullpen arms to get recalled. While the Twins' success in 2025 hinges on the performance of their star players, the contributions of role players like Kody Funderburk will be crucial in determining how far they can go. Funderburk's 2024 season was marred by a few disastrous outings and an injury, obscuring his underlying potential. If Funderburk can recapture his form and stay healthy, he has the potential to be a difference-maker for the Twins, solidifying their bullpen and contributing to a successful campaign. What are your thoughts on Funderburk entering 2025? How about Baldelli’s comments? Join the conversation in the comments! View full article

Cole Ragans had multiple UCL surgeries before he turned 22. Despite that, he's turned into a Cy Young-caliber starting pitcher, and he earned himself some guaranteed money before entering arbitration. His story should have Minnesota Twins fans optimistic about a pitching prospect who has faced similar adversity. Image courtesy of William Parmeter After being drafted 30th overall by the Texas Rangers in 2016, Cole Ragans had a good start to his 2017 campaign with Low-A Spokane, carrying a 3.80 FIP and 34.8% strikeout rate at 19 years old. Unfortunately, he left his Aug. 30 start after just 1 ⅔ innings with elbow discomfort. That led to his first UCL procedure. He had a subsequent surgery on Mar. 28, 2018, after feeling pain in the same elbow during a spring training intrasquad game After a long rehab process and losing 2020 to COVID, it ended up being 1,344 days between starts for the left-hander. He returned on May 5, 2021, and has impressed ever since. In 2024, he finished fourth in Cy Young voting, and he recently signed a three-year deal, giving him cost certainty during his arbitration years. The 27-year-old has flourished in the face of adversity, which should leave Twins fans optimistic about Connor Prielipp’s future. Like Ragans, Prielipp has had multiple UCL surgeries before he could make it past High-A ball, although the circumstances surrounding those procedures were a bit different. Prielipp had his first Tommy John during his sophomore season with the University of Alabama. Despite the injury and limited track record, he declared for the 2022 MLB Draft and was selected by the Twins in the second round. It was a high-risk, high-reward selection, and it wouldn't take long for the Twins and Prielipp to see the risk go from an abstraction to a concrete problem. He experienced arm soreness two appearances into his professional career, leading to his second elbow surgery at 22 years old. While it remains to be seen exactly how well Prielipp rebounds from these procedures, Ragans represents hope that the lefty now sees the reward materialize into a productive and healthy 2025 season. While Prielipp is likely to start the year where he ended 2024 (at Cedar Rapids), he’s one of those arms who could sprint through the minor-league levels (which would be another similarity to Ragans). In fact, before the Danny Coulombe signing, Greggory Masterson that Prielipp could be the left-handed reliever the Twins needed for 2025, and Nash Walker called him a “Major X Factor”. While it was always unlikely he would debut in 2025, it just reinforces how impactful he can be if he stays healthy. Realistically, it's probably best for the 24-year-old to prioritize making it through an entire minor-league season and instead set his sights on 2026 for that breakthrough. If everything falls right, Prielipp could have a Ragans-esque ascension and impact on the Twins very soon. If that happens, we may look back to the team-friendly three-year deal that Ragans just signed as a blueprint for the Twins to lock in some cost certainty for Prielipp. While Ragans is the exception to the rule, Prielipp has the arm talent to flourish in the face of adversity. View full article

Rocco Baldelli sat down with writers covering the Minnesota Twins to kick off spring training on Thursday. One topic of conversation was Jhoan Durán’s robust health, and his usage (alongside Griffin Jax). Let’s read the tea leaves and talk about what the closer role might look like in 2025. Image courtesy of © Matt Blewett-Imagn Images In 2024, Jhoan Durán and Griffin Jax combined for over half of the Twins' high-leverage innings, as defined by FanGraphs. This was despite Durán getting a late start to his 2024 campaign, due to an oblique strain. Yesterday, Rocco Baldelli acknowledged that the injury impacted his performance. “I don’t know how big of an effect it had, but I’d say it definitely was something that tempered his ability to get to where he needs to be,” Beldelli said. The Twins manager pointed to the second half of the season as the time when Durán was throwing the ball “exceptionally well”. The data surely supports this notion, as Durán sported a 1.97 FIP, a 27.3% strikeout minus walk rate, and a lowly .152 opponents' batting average from Jul. 1 on. As the Twins are getting set to begin spring training, Durán’s health continues to be a topic of conversation. “I think you could really look at [Durán] and see that he spent a lot of time and effort on coming in in excellent shape”, said Baldelli. So can we expect Durán to reprise his role as one of the league's most dominant closers? Come to think of it, has Baldelli ever named a “closer”? He hasn't. “[Durán’s] going to throw a lot of ninth innings for us," he said. "I’m sure [Jax] will throw some ninth innings for us.” Last season, Durán dominated ninth-inning appearances 41 to 15, but the two were nearly equal in high-leverage appearances, where Jax held a 44 to 38 advantage. So while Baldelli won't officially name a closer, Durán seemed to be the go-to guy in save situations, while Jax was used in high-leverage opportunities earlier in games. As much as we love to see one of the best closer entrances in baseball, maybe Baldelli is onto something by not naming a closer. Instead, what if Durán and Jax were just two high-leverage relievers who very rarely (ideally never) had to pitch on back-to-back nights? Given the Twins' depth in the bullpen (when healthy), is it feasible to alternate Durán and Jax and use them in whatever high-leverage situation might arise on days when it's their turn, regardless of inning? While Durán has done his best work when pitching on back-to-back nights, limiting those types of outings will undoubtedly keep him fresher and healthier over the grueling season. For Jax, he's found the most success when given a day or two between appearances, so this strategy would dually put him in the best position to be successful. Moreover, the workload would stay roughly the same but the added rest could bring the impact of both players to another level. While deploying this strategy may be better for the team, it would require a lot of flexibility and understanding from the two players. For better or worse (mostly worse), saves reign supreme when it comes to reliever compensation, especially arbitration awards. Telling two of the best relievers in the game they may not be used in those situations as often would likely have an impact on their bottom line. Additionally, Baldelli would be committing late-game, high-leverage opportunities to the likes of Cole Sands, Brock Stewart, or Jorge Alcalá. No disrespect to those guys, but they just aren't in the same tier as Jax or Durán. Regardless of how Baldelli decides to use his relief arms, the talent that sits in the bullpen gives him the flexibility to manage each moment nimbly. He can worry less about saving an arm for later in the game, given one of the best bullpens in baseball. If you could manage the Twins’ bullpen, what would your strategy be? A more traditional hierarchy (middle relief, set up, closers) or a more flexible approach? Share your thoughts in the comments! View full article

The Minnesota Twins begin spring training with three primary roster battles. Who could fill in at the back end of the rotation? Which relievers could win the low leverage roles? Who could play second base other than Willi Castro? Watch this preview to get those questions answered. View full video

The Minnesota Twins are set to start spring training and there will be 16 non-roster players vying to make one of the final spots on the Twins 26- and 40-man roster. Who are the big names and who, if anyone, has the best chance to make the cut? View full video

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Just before pitchers and catchers report to spring training the Minnesota Twins made a couple of their positional battles a little bit less hotly contested. Nonetheless, there will be some playing time scrambles to follow in the coming weeks. Image courtesy of © Dave Nelson-Imagn Images Derek Falvey and the Twins front office have been busy the last couple of weeks, locking down a lefty reliever (Danny Coulombe), a fourth outfielder (Harrison Bader), and a right-handed hitter with experience at first base (Ty France). With those players virtually guaranteed to make the team out of camp, we no longer have to wonder if Edouard Julien or Willi Castro will get more reps at first base. We no longer have to wonder whom Rocco Baldelli will deploy when the need for a left-handed reliever arises. We don't have to guess about what happens when Byron Buxton gets hurt, or when Matt Wallner or Trevor Larnach are set to face a southpaw in a high-leverage situation. Those questions have been answered by the flurry of signings. So what questions remain? Four Starters for Two Rotation Spots The four players in line to compete for the fourth and fifth spots in the rotation are: Chris Paddack, Simeon Woods Richardson, David Festa, and Zebby Matthews. Barring a Paddack trade, he’s a lock to make the Opening Day roster, since the Twins are paying him $7.25 million this year. That leaves three young guns for the fifth and final rotation spot, and you have to imagine that Woods Richardson is the heavy favorite of the group. Yes, he ran out of steam in his first big-league season (wherein he set a career high in innings pitched), but you can’t ignore that he carried a sub-4.00 ERA into the final month of the season with a solid 13.1% K-BB rate. Barring injury (or a trade), I would put a lot of money on Festa and Matthews headlining the Triple-A St. Paul Saints rotation to start the season. The silver lining here is that the Twins are well positioned if (more like when) injuries strike the major-league rotation, with some of the best young pitchers in baseball ready to play the role of “next man up.” A Cluster of Relievers for Two (ish?) Bullpen Spots It’s hard to know exactly how many bullpen spots are open, given the number of cheap, “flier”-type arms the Twins have at the bottom of their bullpen hierarchy. If we operate under the assumption that they will carry eight relievers and that six of those spots are spoken for (Jhoan Durán, Griffin Jax, Cole Sands, Brock Stewart, Michael Tonkin and Coulombe), then we have two spots for roughly five arms. Depending on Stewart’s recovery timeline from arthroscopic shoulder surgery last August, a third open spot could temporarily open up for the start of the season. Regardless of how many jobs are open, though, the five competitors are: Jorge Alcalá, Justin Topa, Louie Varland, Kody Funderburk, and Rule 5 Draft pick Eiberson Castellano. Of those names, Castellano has the most at stake. If he does not make the active roster, he will have to be offered back to the Phillies. Alcalá can be optioned at the start of the season, but once he accrues just eight more days of service time, he'll no longer be optionable, as he'll reach the threshold of five years' service. At that point, the rules protect players from being optioned, so teams can't artificially delay free agency at the end of their window of team control. That makes his fight for a spot fairly high-stakes, too. There aren’t any special circumstances following the remaining three pitchers on the list, as each have at least one option remaining and is relatively cheap. Topa is set to make the most money, at $1 million, and represents one of two chances (Gabriel Gonzalez being the other) the Twins have at getting anything from the Jorge Polanco trade. Funderburk is the only other lefty reliever on the Twins 26- or 40-man roster, after they lost southpaw swingman Brent Headrick on waivers Tuesday. Varland will be in a relatively new role, as he looks to be the Twins' latest failed starter who flourishes in a relief role. The Twins obviously saw something in Castellano to make him their first Rule 5 Draft pick since Tyler Kinley in 2017, so I think they’ll give him every opportunity to make the club out of camp. I feel the same way about Michael Tonkin, given that they likely lose him if he is waived. If Stewart isn’t ready for Opening Day (or if one of the other two don’t make it), then you’re likely looking at Topa or Funderburk as the “first two out”. I feel pretty strongly that Varland will (and should) start the year in Triple-A St. Paul to grow into his newfound role as a reliever. The Battle for the Keystone The battle for second base may not be resolved by the time spring training is over. Heck, it may never be truly “resolved” in 2025; there could be a merry-go-round, just like last season. Barring a trade, Willi Castro will be on the Twins' Opening Day roster. He played nearly 300 innings at the Keystone in 2024. It’s likely that at least one of Brooks Lee, Austin Martin, and Julien end up starting the year in Triple-A St. Paul. Whoever remains on the roster will likely be used in more of a utility role around the infield, making spot starts at second base when Castro is playing one of the other five positions he’s played in the past. If I absolutely had to make a guess now, I like Martin to make the club, given his versatility. After him, I really think it largely depends on spring training performance to see which of Julien and Lee make the cut. For what it’s worth, FanGraphs's Roster Resource currently projects Lee as the starting second baseman; Julien on the bench; and Martin with the Saints. The Twins have addressed several key questions with recent signings, but intriguing roster battles remain. Of the three, Rocco Baldelli’s biggest decision entering his seventh spring training as the Twins skipper will be how to fill those last two(ish) spots in the bullpen. Who do you think makes the cut? What storylines are you following in spring training? Join the conversation in the comments! View full article

It's even more wild to look at some of the rosters (and dwindling resources) Baldelli has been given and attribute the Twins missing the playoffs to him. He's not perfect but far from the reason they've missed in 3/4 seasons. Also, the AL Central had four times finish above .500, three make the playoffs, three make the divisional round, and one make the championship round. 🤷🏼‍♂️

There is a quantifiable stat for nearly everything. At catcher, we have “pop time”, as well as pitch framing and blocking metrics that try to paint a picture of their defensive value. One key part of being a catcher is the art of calling pitches and, while a site like Baseball Savant doesn't quantify the impact of this, the Minnesota Twins measure it with their backstops. Image courtesy of © David Richard-Imagn Images This very topic came up when Aaron Gleeman of The Athletic and our own John Bonnes were interviewing Ryan Jeffers at the Twins Daily Winter Meltdown. Gleeman was specifically asking Jeffers about learning new pitchers (i.e. when David Festa was promoted) and how the game plan is formed when each player is still getting to know the other. Jeffers pointed out that it's a collaborative effort between the players and coaching staff, but also revealed that the team uses a “sticking to the plan” stat. Jeffers revealed that an intern will track pitches and after the game will determine how well they stuck with the pre-game plan. While we don't know the details of how this is exactly calculated (and there's some indication that it's more of a tabulated but flexible feedback system than a true stat), it's a fascinating aspect of the game to discuss. It's one of the few things that aren't formally quantified, at least in the public sphere. Regardless, we can use some thoughtful conjecture to hypothesize what this stat may look like. When game planning, there are two sets of strengths and weaknesses to consider: your pitcher’s and the opposing hitter’s. Of course, you always prefer to lean into your pitcher's strengths, as that is where they are most comfortable, but that's not always the best plan. Not only do opposing hitters have the scouting report on that game’s pitcher, but their strengths may coincide with the pitcher’s. For example, Simeon Woods Richardson’s slider performed really well last year. At the same time, Kansas City's Salvador Perez had a solid .331 expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA) and hit six home runs on sliders from righties in 2024. When those two match up in 2025, should Woods Richardson avoid throwing his slider? That's where the next layer of the plan comes into play. Pitchers and hitters alike have tendencies and preferences that impact the game plan. Pitchers like to throw certain pitches in certain counts, and that may even vary depending on the handedness of the hitter. From Pablo López’s Brooks Baseball page, you can see his tendencies based on the count as well as hitter split. Generally speaking, left-handed hitters should look for more vertical movement, while their right-handed counterparts will look for more horizontal movement. (This is pretty typical: horizontal movement tends to deceive same-handed batters better than opposite-handed ones. Vertical movement is best leveraged when the hitter has the platoon advantage.) Specifically, in a two-strike count, right-handed hitters have four pitches to stay on, while left-handed hitters can more or less throw out the slider (that's his sweeper; Brooks Baseball just doesn't distinguish sliders from sweepers yet). On the other hand, hitters have their own swing tendencies that will be part of the game plan as well. Check out Byron Buxton’s swing tendencies and outcomes on two-strike counts. Where are you attacking him? If you said underneath the zone, I would absolutely agree. If you play around on his Brooks Baseball page, you’ll find that while he does relatively well against sinkers and sliders regardless of count, locating well with those offerings can confound him. While the numbers shared are for their careers, it’s also important to consider recent tendencies as well. Has the hitter struggled against a certain type of pitch over the last two weeks? Is the hitter dealing with a nagging injury that may impact their ability to get around on a ball or extend their hands to the outside part of the zone? While quantifiable trends are the most important thing to go into a game plan, it’s also important to have a feel for the game. “You have to constantly weigh that battle of what you see, what your eyes are telling you versus what the numbers are saying,” Jeffers said at the Meltdown. To supplement what the data is telling you, pitchers and catchers can leverage film to help identify weaknesses in a hitter’s swing. Moreover, in-game observations at the at-bat level can impact how you set hitters up later in the count or in future at-bats. That a player generally struggles with a certain pitch doesn’t necessarily mean it's wise to pummel the zone with that pitch; getting them out still requires a thoughtful approach on how you set that player up for that pitch type. While we don’t know how the Twins exactly quantify “sticking to the plan,” quantifying this internally is an important part of pitcher and catcher development and deepening the relationship there. Reflecting on the game plan can lead to invaluable discussions and learning opportunities, such as the thought process behind deviating from the plan; why a pitcher may have shaken off the catcher (something that is encouraged by Jeffers); or why the plan may or may not have worked on a particular day. Especially in the early stages of a pitcher-catcher relationship, these discussions can help the two better understand each other’s tendencies, as well as when or how the pitcher prefers to deviate from those tendencies. View full article

The Minnesota Twins have yet to establish a solid back up plan behind Jose Miranda at first base. Edouard Julie and Willi Castro are internal candidates, but who are some external candidates who could (better) fill the void? View full video

Dan Hayes is reporting that the Minnesota Twins are looking at veteran infielders Luis Urías and Paul DeJong has potential back ups to Carlos Correa. What does that mean for Brooks Lee and Willi Castro? Where is the money coming from? Should we expect more moves? View full video

If Nolan Arenado remains with the St. Louis Cardinals, it would result in a loss of at-bats for up and comer Alec Burleson. Should the Minnesota Twins swoop in for the bat first versatile defender who is controllable through 2028? View full video