Jump to content
Our top free agent ranking is up to 75 names; click here to check it out! ×
Twins Daily
  • Create Account

jkcarew

Old-Timey Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    5,619

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    6

 Content Type 

Profiles

Minnesota Twins News, Rumors & Analysis

Minnesota Twins Videos

2026 Minnesota Twins Top Prospect Rankings

2022 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Minnesota Twins Trade & Free Agent Rumors

Minnesota Twins Fan Guides & Resources

2023 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

The Minnesota Twins Players Project

2024 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2025 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2026 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Forums

Blogs

Events

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by jkcarew

  1. jkcarew
    I'm hoping Sano holds his own at 3rd defensively as he did last year. Offensively, it's an important year for him to show the ability to make the adjustments to reign in the K rate a bit. If that happens, his value goes through the roof.
  2. jkcarew
    I see Vegas consensus had Twins at 82.5 (over/under) before the Lynn signing. I haven't seen if they tweaked it. I assume the over/under weighs the risk regarding Sano and the Santana injury? When PECOTA projects 83, is it factoring in fewer starts for Santana and the risk of same for Sano? I'm guessing not. And if not, seems a little low post recent additions. But probably only a little low. It will be fun to see who among the young guys take that next step this year.
  3. jkcarew
    Everyone complains that he's taking Mauer's or Morrison's or Sano's at-bats. It was always going to be difficult for Vargas to establish himself as an every-day guy with Mauer at 1B and Sano breaking in without a position. Last year would have been the year...but it didn't happen. His bad timing doesn't make him a great hitter, though. It just makes him unlucky. If the Twins let him go, I hope he gets that every-day opportunity at the next stop.
  4. jkcarew
    There's no evidence that he would provide more pop than Grossman...the evidence is that he'd provide less. Meanwhile, he's actually older than Grossman. So, anything can happen, but highly unlikely.
  5. jkcarew
    If it comes down to these two at any point... I'll give you thirteen million and two hundred guesses. (If you don't get it right, I'll give you another thirteen million two hundred.)
  6. jkcarew
    Whining. The MLBPA is one year into a CBA that doesn't do anything to increase the percentage of revenue spent on salaries. And that percentage had already spent a decade trending horribly for the players when they negotiated the current deal. That's not the owners fault. It's a union that has always been heavily dominated by domestic/US, top-end MLB player perspective. Now, they are coming off a horrendous decade-plus in terms public relations and negotiating outcomes. They need to look at their own leadership.
  7. jkcarew
    It seems that the concept of 'value of marginal wins' at play. If you have 'established players', but the near term expected value of the extra wins they provide is essentially zero (because the club is not ready to compete)...then you would expect the selling team to accept more risk in considering such trades (all other things, like contract status, being equal). The marginal wins provided by Dozier in 2017 made him very valuable to the Twins. However, when the Twins were shopping him coming off the 103-loss 2016 campaign, it would have been very understandable if they had acted more aggressively than they did. And then, sometimes you just get lucky.
  8. jkcarew
    Kind of irrelevant, even if true, right? It's more about a reasonable expectation of WAR (or whatever) from 2019 - 2022, among other factors like roster construction. Look, I love Dozier. And I'd guess his career tail...at least offensively...won't be particularly steep. But, it seems reasonable to me for the Twins to want to see how 2018 plays out before they decide/commit on Dozier. Equally reasonable, IMO, for Dozier to decide to commit to going through the FA process. We'll see what happens.
  9. jkcarew
    It remains to be seen whether the Twins or Lynn did the misreading. And, while I would expect the Twins to be 'aware' of what Lynn wanted, I would almost never expect a club to match that with their initial offer. Especially, given how the market has been this off-season. It sounds like Lynn made the decision to not engage and negotiate based on the Twins initial offer. Time will tell how much of a 'low ball' that offer was.
  10. jkcarew
    I disagree. It is reasonable for the front office to view his value to the Twins drastically differently in 2019-2021 than they did for 2017. The fact that Dozier was the best player on the Twins in 2016, but would not be expected to be the best player (or even close) on other contending teams is precisely what made it hard to get value in a trade. The FO has to expect that as Dozier gets older and especially as Buxton, Sano, Rosario, Kepler, etc develop, that they will be able to replace his offensive production elsewhere and his value to the Twins decreases (again, especially relative to what he will cost). I agree that the Twins need pitching above all else...also like you, will probably end up wishing we had got something/anything for Dozier if he ends up leaving. But, I don't blame the FO for not pulling the trigger on him last off-season...at least based on what we know.
  11. jkcarew
    Tough crowd. The alternatives were to seek and accept an offer lesser than the deal involving JDL...or accept a better offer that as far as anyone can substantiate never existed. Don't see how (given what we know) hanging on to the best player on the team for another year or two damaged the franchise too much.
  12. jkcarew
    Just because he's smaller doesn't mean he's more athletic. We'll find out.
  13. jkcarew
    I think this is a good point. I seem to recall that when Dozier was moved off of SS, the primary issue was range, not arm. Someone can confirm or deny. If that's the case, and the Twins find themselves with an opportunity to sign Dozier, but happen to love Gordon, Dozier's bat plays at 3rd (at least it has for the last few years).
  14. jkcarew
    Adrianza started in LF in today's game, which featured mostly starters. Looks like it will come down to two of the following three choices... Grossman (or Granite...but probably Grossman) Adrianza 13th Pitcher
  15. jkcarew
    Between now and next off-season (or the trade deadline) there will be a thousand posts/articles on Dozier's situation, along with 10 thousand interview questions about it. Both the writers and Brian will contradict themselves and each other countlessly. He's just a guy being advised by his agent and trying not to piss everyone off in the interim...like 99% of the others that have gone through this. The interesting thing to me...if you're thinking about signing Dozier, then you should be thinking about trading Gordon, right? Why would you make a bench player out of a 5th over-all draft pick that is still a top 100 prospect? You'd want to get something of more value than a utility infielder while you still had the change. So, IMO, the tricky part for the Twins will be getting decent value out of Gordon if they find themselves spending the money to keep Dozier. (This assumes that the Twins have already decided that Gordon is not an every-day MLB SS.)
  16. jkcarew
    Remember that we have two left-handed hitting corner outfielders...one of which had horrific splits last year (and not great the year before). The 4th outfielder is going to called on to start against tough lefties...not a handful of time, but dozens of times. Forget about Morrison being an option in the outfield. Not going to happen. With regard to Grossman...a 28 year-old coming up on 2000 MLB plate appearances is not going to be cut based on spring training at-bats. He'll be cut if/when there is a better roster fit/option. There is a high likelihood that the answer to that question (in April) is going to be no, there isn't.
  17. jkcarew
    True. Reputation matters...and in that regard, not many around the league would consider Santana an ace, even an the heals of his 2017 performance. And Jack Morris started game 1 of the ALCS and of the WS...not Kevin Tapani
  18. jkcarew
    Except, he doesn't have a 33% chance of getting nothing. He could have injuries that knock him out for entire seasons and, later in FA, still end up with considerably more than 'nothing'. I'm sure his agent got him a life insurance policy. Look, I'd love for him to sign an extension. Go for it, Twins. But we're talking about a first-overall draft pick that just had the first 2 good months of his career. I'm not saying that it NEVER makes sense for a player to extend. But this would be the ultimate in selling low, and I'd be shocked if it happens anytime soon (extending)
  19. jkcarew
    You need good pitchers to get there. Once in the post-season, and offense can carry you...it's been done. But, I'll still take the 'ace'. BTW...Ervin Santana's ERA+ last year: better than Morris's in '91 (also, Morris had been considerably below-average the 3 previous seasons); way better than Blyleven's in '87; not nearly as good as Frank Viola in '87; not as good as Kevin Tapani's in '91.
  20. jkcarew
    Why would Buxton extend at this point, when he's barely done anything yet? Way too early...the price isn't even close to high enough...for him to give up even one year of FA. With his talent, he'd be nuts to not at least wait until he's put things together for the better part of an entire season. If he doesn't bet on himself in this regard, I'd be shocked.
  21. jkcarew
    Under...although, I'd like to get a sample of this year's baseballs for testing before I put down my money.
  22. jkcarew
    I think it's highly questionable to use expected wOBA to assess a player with Polanco's profile...that is to say someone who actually has the willingness and/or ability to put a quality 2-strike pitch in play. Expected wOBA penalizes those that put the ball in play...those that are aggressive early in the count and/or take the approach (or have the ability) to put the ball in play with two strikes. A player with this profile, will always have many more instances of soft contact that damages xwOBA...moves in xwOBA for this profile will be relatively muted...even as that player improves his ability to drive pitcher's mistakes. So to me, there is no 'bad' news in Polanco's flat second-half xwOBA. Buxton, on the other hand, raised his second-half xwOBA while lowering his strike-out rate. I'm on-board there...very encouraging!
  23. jkcarew
    Thanks. Wind was blowing out just for Polanco in Aug/Sept. That really IS lucky!
  24. jkcarew
    I guess expected wOBA doesn't account for 10 2nd-half balls landing on the other side of the fence...if they weren't expected.
  25. jkcarew
    But whose at-bats would Vargas's additional at-bats have come from? Those were his 23, 24, and 25 age seasons. There would have been rioting in the streets if those at-bats would have come from Mauer's at first. And as far as DH goes, you really don't want to stunt a young players defensive development that early by making him a full-time DH (and it's not like he was raking)...not to mention the fact that you were already violating that axiom by giving a lot of DH at-bats to Sano during those years. IMO, you can call it a failure of roster management, but it wasn't a failure of neglectful development, unless the argument is that they should have simply given him more AAA at-bats (which is what they ended up doing last year). I hope they trade/cut him as soon as possible for his sake. I'd be pretty surprised if it were a trade.
×
×
  • Create New...